{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "APP",
  "name": "AppLovin Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APP/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APP.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a3",
    "n": 3
  },
  "current_thesis": "AppLovin's third-quarter 2026 report put growth back on track: revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion and beat its own guidance by about $100 million. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether its partly rolled-out ad models hold growth above the guided 43–44%.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $350, under the $347 Wells Fargo and $355 Piper Sandler price targets. A second break would be fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $2,365 million low end of company guidance.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "AppLovin has Class A and Class B common shares; the 331 million shares outstanding at 2026-09-30 count both classes.",
    "Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are non-GAAP measures defined by the company in its quarterly earnings releases."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "AppLovin Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001751008/000175100826000068/exhibit991-3q26earningspre.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin's Q3 revenue grows 55% to $2.18B, sending stock soaring after hours",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/news/applovin-q3-2026-earnings/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Applovin (APP) Q3 2026 earnings summary",
      "url": "https://quartr.com/events/applovin-corporation-app-q3-2026_ozPMhvrG",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "2019 1 dollar}",
      "url": "https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3024423/{https:/www.zackstrade.com/2019-1-dollar}",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "applovin revenue jump why stock plunge",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/09/applovin-revenue-jump-why-stock-plunge/",
      "date": "2026-08-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin shares tumble as revenue miss and cautious outlook outweigh earnings beat",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/378267/applovin-shares-tumble-as-revenue-miss-and-cautious-outlook-outweigh-earnings-beat",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "APP Stock Plunges 28% After-Hours On Revenue Miss And Soft Guidance — But CFO Says SEC Probe On Firm Now Closed",
      "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/app-stock-plunges-28-after-hours-on-revenue-miss-and-soft-guidance-but-cfo-says-sec-probe-on-firm-now-closed/cZoI49mRJeZ",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin faces SEC probe as data practices come under fire",
      "url": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/applovin-faces-sec-probe-data-practices-under-fire",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $2,185 million, up 55% from $1,405 million a year earlier; net income was $1,439 million and diluted EPS $4.30.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1,842 million at an 84% margin; free cash flow was $1,418 million.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $2,365–$2,395 million and adjusted EBITDA $1,995–$2,025 million at an 84–85% margin.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "AppLovin repurchased or withheld 4.1 million shares for about $1.4 billion in Q3 2026; the board raised the authorisation to $3.6 billion.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $3,174 million and long-term debt $3,516 million at quarter end.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion missed a consensus near $1.94 billion; shares fell about 19–21% the next session.",
      "source": "Finviz / Motley Fool coverage of Q2 2026 report",
      "as_of": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "RBC Capital and Oppenheimer raised AppLovin targets to $520; Wells Fargo raised its target to $347 with an Equal-Weight rating.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst rating headlines",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nAppLovin's third-quarter 2026 report put growth back on track. Revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion and beat the top of the company's own guidance by about $100 million, after a second-quarter miss in August. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, will show whether the ad models, so far only partly rolled out, can hold growth above the 43–44% the company has guided.\n\nThe case rests on AppLovin's ad-targeting models for mobile games and, increasingly, for advertisers outside gaming. In the 8-K exhibit dated 2026-11-04, the company reported adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, as adjusted by the company) of $1,842 million, an 84% margin. It also reported free cash flow of $1,418 million. The shares have recovered quickly, so the next test is the business, not sentiment.\n\nThe narrative is accelerating again. The shares were down about 60% in 2026 through the 2026-11-04 close, the worst S&P 500 performer of the year according to MarketWatch. They rose 23.5% in after-hours trading on the night of the report. Seven brokers moved price targets on 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Sequential growth beat the company's own pace.** Third-quarter revenue grew 14% from the second quarter (StockAnalysis, 2026-11-05). The company's August guidance midpoint of $2.07 billion had implied about 7.8% sequential growth.\n- **Cash generation funds large buybacks.** In the third quarter, AppLovin spent about $1.4 billion to repurchase or withhold 4.1 million Class A shares, up from $551 million in the second quarter. The board added $3.2 billion to the authorisation, bringing it to $3.6 billion at the end of October 2026 (8-K exhibit, 2026-11-04).\n- **The model rollout is incomplete.** On the 2026-11-04 call, CEO Adam Foroughi said only part of the next-generation ad models has been deployed. He gave no date for the full rollout.\n- **Advertisers outside gaming are growing.** Spending by consumer advertisers outside gaming rose by double digits from the second quarter (StockAnalysis, 2026-11-05).\n- **Bullish brokers raised targets after the report.** On 2026-11-05, RBC Capital and Oppenheimer each raised their targets to $520 and Macquarie raised its target to $470. All three rate the shares Outperform.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance implies slower growth.** The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2,365–$2,395 million. That is 43–44% growth year over year and 8–10% sequentially, against 55% year-over-year growth in the third quarter. A Jefferies analyst questioned the slowdown on the 2026-11-04 call. CFO Matt Stumpf attributed it to normal seasonality and added compute investment.\n- **Neutral-rated brokers sit below the price.** On 2026-11-06, Wells Fargo raised its target to $347 (Equal-Weight) and Piper Sandler raised its target to $355 (Neutral). Both are below the $410 close of 2026-11-09. Goldman Sachs stayed Neutral with a $445 target, and Scotiabank cut its target to $450 on 2026-11-05.\n- **The August miss shows how quickly the shares can fall.** Second-quarter revenue of $1.92 billion fell short of a consensus near $1.94 billion. The shares fell about 19–21% around 2026-08-06, according to Benzinga and Barchart reports.\n- **Regulatory and short-seller questions follow the company.** Reuters reported in February 2026 that an SEC inquiry into AppLovin's data-collection practices was \"still active and ongoing\". A later Stocktwits report quoted CFO Matt Stumpf saying the agency \"concluded its inquiry with no recommended action.\" In January 2026, CapitalWatch published allegations of anti-money-laundering failures, which AppLovin called \"false, misleading, and nonsensical.\"\n- **AI-linked stocks are under pressure.** On 2026-11-05, the Nasdaq fell 4.5% and the VIX volatility index jumped 39% after the midterm results, according to Benzinga market coverage. AppLovin rose against that sell-off, but the sector backdrop is weak.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $410.00 on 2026-11-09 on split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes. That is 44.1% below the 52-week high of $733.60. The shares are up 35.0% over three months.\n\nThe 14-day relative strength index (RSI) read 79.8 on 2026-11-09. Readings above 70 are conventionally treated as overbought, so the shares are stretched after the post-report jump. Two observable crowding signs stand out: the RSI reading and the sharp re-rating within days of the report. The company itself has been the largest buyer of its own shares, with $1.4 billion of repurchases in the third quarter. No earnings date falls in the next 30 days.\n\nThe theme group of AI enterprise-software names has cooled since an accelerating reading in mid-October. That raises the bar for a single-name case. AppLovin's case turns on its own advertising results more than on the group.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **No scheduled company event identified through 2026-12-10.** The quarterly report has passed (2026-11-04), and no investor day or index event has been confirmed for the period.\n- **~2027-02-11, est.: fourth-quarter 2026 report.** This shows whether revenue lands inside the $2,365–$2,395 million guidance and whether the broader model rollout shows up in growth.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe case breaks if the fourth-quarter report shows revenue below the $2,365 million low end of guidance. It also breaks if sequential growth falls below the 8% low end implied by that guidance, because either would mean the model improvements are not adding revenue. A formal enforcement action by a regulator, or a substantiated short-seller allegation that forces a restatement, would also end it.\n\nOn price, a daily close below $350 would put the shares under the $347 and $355 targets of Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler, the two neutral-rated firms. That would show the market siding with the cautious view of the report.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nAppLovin trades with high-growth Nasdaq technology and AI software names. That link showed on 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06, when a broad AI sell-off was the backdrop to the report. Its revenue depends on mobile-game advertiser budgets. That ties it to the mobile ad and game-engine peer Unity Software, which Benzinga listed among large stocks moving higher on 2026-11-05. Results from the large digital ad platforms, Meta and Alphabet, act as a read-across for advertising demand.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-10T11:19:33+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-10",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-10",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}