{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "AXP", "name": "American Express Company", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AXP/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AXP.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a1", "n": 1 }, "current_thesis": "American Express shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, as card spending growth slowed to 8% and the 2026 guidance raise rests on a one-time gain; the fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected in late January 2027, settle it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close above $342, which would recover the mid-August 2026 price and erase the three-month decline, showing the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook at the fourth-quarter report calling for revenue growth above 10%.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "fintech-consumer-credit" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "Reported 2026 earnings include a $982 million pretax gain from the sale of the GBTG stake and a $336 million restructuring charge; adjusted figures exclude both.", "American Express usually reports fourth-quarter results in late January; the 2025 fourth-quarter report came out on 2026-01-30." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "AMERICAN EXPRESS CO - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000004962/000000496226000405/q326exhibit991.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "RTTNews", "url": "https://www.rttnews.com/3702475/american-express-boosts-fy26-eps-outlook-as-q3-profit-up-27.aspx", "date": null }, { "title": "American Express (AXP) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 5.42 (exp. 4.50), Revenue 20.1bln (exp. 20.1bln)", "url": "https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/american-express-axp-q3-2026-usd-eps-542-exp-450-revenue-201bln-exp-201bln", "date": null }, { "title": "Tickeron", "url": "https://tickeron.com/blogs/american-express-axp-15-upside-to-370-analyst-target-in-view-31783/", "date": null }, { "title": "Amex stock plunges 4.3 pc after Trump pushes 10 pc cap on credit card rates", "url": "https://ianslive.in/amex-plunges-43-pc-after-trump-pushes-10-pc-cap-on-creditcard-rates--20260113122047", "date": "2026-01-13" }, { "title": "AmEx profits surge 13% as affluent customers splurge on luxury goods and travel", "url": "https://wtop.com/business-finance/2026/01/amex-profits-surge-13-as-affluent-customers-splurge-on-luxury-goods-and-travel/", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue net of interest expense was $20.06 billion, up 9% from a year earlier; adjusted EPS was $4.68, up 13%, and diluted EPS was $5.42.", "source": "American Express third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-10-23" }, { "claim": "Billed business grew 8% to $454.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026, against 9% growth for the first nine months.", "source": "American Express third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-10-23" }, { "claim": "Full-year 2026 guidance is diluted EPS of $18.30–$18.60 and adjusted EPS of $17.60–$17.90; the third quarter included a $982 million pretax GBTG gain.", "source": "American Express third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-10-23" }, { "claim": "Net write-off rate was 1.8% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 1.9%; provisions for credit losses were $1.0 billion, down from $1.3 billion.", "source": "American Express third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-10-23" }, { "claim": "CEO Stephen Squeri exercised options on 299,401 shares at $148.45 and sold them at an average $332.16.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-04" }, { "claim": "Daiwa Securities lowered its American Express price target to $362 from $386.", "source": "Company news, 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "UBS kept a Neutral rating on American Express and raised its price target to $346.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-02", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "American Express completed its acquisition of European restaurant reservation platform TheFork.", "source": "Company news, 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-06" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Financial Services", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 11232, "yoy_pct": 7.8 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-24", "value_musd": 11212, "yoy_pct": 8.6 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-23", "value_musd": 10517, "yoy_pct": 9.3 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-06", "value_musd": 10942, "yoy_pct": 9.9 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 10415, "yoy_pct": 7.2 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-24", "value_musd": 10321, "yoy_pct": 5.1 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "operating_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 4531 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 3712, "four_quarters_musd": 12255 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 17626 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 3716 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -2.7 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 43203 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 59953, "composition": "long-term debt plus short-term borrowings" }, "net_cash": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 35797 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-15", "basis_filed": "2026-10-23", "value_musd": 214979 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-15", "basis_filed": "2026-10-23", "multiple": 17.5 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-15", "basis_filed": "2026-10-23", "multiple": 6 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" } }, "financial_balance_sheet": { "kind": "bank" } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.62, "days_to_cover": 3.5, "change_pct": 0.7 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 140042155.31, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 179371357.1, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nAmerican Express shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third quarter beat on adjusted earnings, but card spending growth slowed, most of the guidance raise came from a one-time gain, and senior executives sold stock in early November. The fourth-quarter report and the 2027 outlook, expected in late January 2027, settle the call.\n\nThe company's 2026-10-23 results release showed revenue net of interest expense of $20.06 billion, up 9% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $4.68, up 13%. Newsquawk put the consensus at $4.50 and revenue at $20.1 billion, so profit beat while revenue came in roughly level with estimates. Billed business, the dollar value of spending on Amex cards, grew 8% to $454.0 billion. That is below the 9% pace for the first nine months of 2026.\n\nThe company raised full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance to $18.30–$18.60. RTTNews reported the prior range as $17.30–$17.90. The adjusted range, which strips out a $982 million pretax gain from selling the Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) stake and a $336 million restructuring charge, is $17.60–$17.90. Underlying earnings power moved far less than the headline figure.\n\nAt $318.06 on 2026-11-12, the shares closed 17.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $387.49 set on 2025-12-12. That gap persists after a quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. The market is pricing slower spending growth and political pressure on card economics more than the reported earnings.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Credit quality is improving.** The net write-off rate fell to 1.8% in the third quarter of 2026 from 1.9% a year earlier, and provisions for credit losses dropped to $1.0 billion from $1.3 billion as the company released reserves (2026-10-23 results release).\n- **Double-digit revenue growth is holding.** Revenue rose 10% over the first nine months of 2026 to $58.61 billion, and Chief Executive Stephen Squeri said the company is on track for another year of 10% revenue growth (2026-10-23 results release).\n- **Analyst targets sit above the price.** Tickeron's 2026-11-08 tally of 17 targets averaged $370, ranging from BTIG's $315 to Deutsche Bank's $450. UBS raised its target to $346 on 2026-11-02 and kept a Neutral rating.\n- **The dining and lifestyle push keeps expanding.** The company completed its purchase of European restaurant booking platform TheFork on 2026-11-06, adding to its Resy dining business (company news).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Spending growth is slowing.** Billed business grew 8% in the third quarter of 2026, below the 9% nine-month pace (2026-10-23 results release). Spending volume drives discount revenue, the company's largest line.\n- **Guidance raise rests on a one-time gain.** The $982 million pretax GBTG gain added $1.11 per share after tax in the third quarter. The adjusted 2026 range of $17.60–$17.90 is far narrower than the jump in reported guidance suggests (2026-10-23 results release).\n- **Executives sold in early November.** SEC Form 4 filings show Squeri exercised options on 299,401 shares at $148.45 and sold them at an average $332.16 on 2026-11-04. Chief Legal Officer Laureen Seeger sold 69,860 shares at $328.17, and Group President Anna Marrs sold 44,910 shares at an average $327.20, both on 2026-11-02.\n- **Targets are being cut.** Daiwa Securities lowered its target to $362 from $386 on 2026-11-05 (company news).\n- **Political risk to card economics remains.** On 2026-01-13 the shares fell 4.3% to $359 after President Trump called for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates (IANS). A congressional report on 2026-11-10 criticised several financial institutions, American Express among them, over suspicious-transaction reporting in the Epstein case (company news).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $318.06 on 2026-11-12, down from $323.11 on 2026-11-11. As of that close the 50-day moving average was $315.19 and the 200-day moving average was $322.90. The price sits between the two, below the longer trend line. The three-month price change is −6.8%.\n\nEarly-November trading ran higher. The insider sales on 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-04 were filled between $326.63 and $332.98 (SEC Form 4 filings), and the shares closed at $324.97 on 2026-11-05. Since then each close has stayed below $325.\n\nThe 52-week intraday high is $387.49, set on 2025-12-12. The 52-week closing low is $292.27, set on 2026-03-27. A move back above the 200-day average and the early-November range would show buyers absorbing the insider supply. A close under the 50-day average would extend the three-month decline.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-01-29 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results and full-year 2027 guidance. Shows whether billed business growth recovers from 8% and whether the 2027 revenue and EPS outlook gives the shares a reason to lead; a 2027 outlook above 10% revenue growth would undercut the lag call.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA weekly close above $342, which would recover the mid-August 2026 price and erase the three-month decline, showing the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook at the fourth-quarter report calling for revenue growth above 10%.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nAmerican Express trades as the large-cap bellwether for premium consumer and small-business card spending. It moves with card networks and card-lending banks such as Visa, Mastercard and Capital One on spending data and credit trends. Political events hit the whole group together. On 2026-01-13, after the 10% rate-cap proposal, American Express fell 4.3% and Capital One fell 6.4% (IANS). Because spending skews toward affluent card members and travel, the shares also respond to travel and luxury demand readings.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:43:51+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }