{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "AZO", "name": "AutoZone, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZO/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZO.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a7", "n": 7 }, "current_thesis": "AutoZone is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its 1.6% domestic same-store sales growth trails O'Reilly's 7.2%, and its latest profit gain leaned on tariff refunds. The 8 December 2026 first-quarter report shows whether sales accelerate as management expects.", "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close above $3,308.97, the 2026-11-05 close, which would show the rebound from the October low extending and the shares leading; or first-quarter fiscal 2027 domestic same-store sales growth above 3% on 2026-12-08.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-25", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "consumer-discretionary-rotation" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "AutoZone's fiscal year ends in late August. Its first three quarters are 12 weeks long and the fourth quarter is 16 weeks, so quarterly figures are not directly comparable to calendar-quarter peers.", "AutoZone pays no dividend. It returns capital to shareholders through share buybacks, which totalled $2.0 billion in fiscal 2026." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "AUTOZONE INC - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000866787/000117184326006159/exh_991.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "AUTOZONE INC - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000866787/000117184326006805/f8k_102326.htm", "date": "2026-10-26" }, { "title": "O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000898173/000089817326000050/orly-ex99d1.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "cfo.com", "url": "https://www.cfo.com/news/fedex-hires-autozones-jamere-jackson-as-cfo/872794/", "date": null }, { "title": "AutoZone Q4 FY26 EPS rises 15.1% to $56.05; net sales climb 5.6% to $6.6 billion", "url": "https://capital.com/en-gb/news/autozone-q4-fy26-eps-rises-15-1-to-56-05-net-sales", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales rose 5.6% to $6.6 billion. Domestic same-store sales rose 1.6%, and diluted EPS rose to $56.05 from $48.71.", "source": "AutoZone fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-09-22" }, { "claim": "Fourth-quarter gross margin rose 182 basis points to 53.3%. Tariff refunds added 145 basis points and a net non-cash LIFO impact added 105 basis points.", "source": "AutoZone fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-09-22" }, { "claim": "Fourth-quarter operating expenses rose to 33.4% of sales from 32.4%. Full-year fiscal 2026 operating profit rose 3.1% on sales up 7.4%.", "source": "AutoZone fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-09-22" }, { "claim": "Domestic commercial sales rose 8.6% to $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Merchandise inventory rose 10.1% to $7.7 billion.", "source": "AutoZone fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-09-22" }, { "claim": "O'Reilly Automotive's comparable store sales rose 7.2% in the quarter ended 2026-09-30. It raised its full-year comparable sales range to 5.5%–6.5%.", "source": "O'Reilly Automotive third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "CFO Jamere Jackson resigned on 2026-10-20, effective 2026-11-25. Controller J. Scott Murphy will serve as principal financial officer during an external search for a successor.", "source": "AutoZone 8-K filed 2026-10-26", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "Bank of America reinstated coverage of AutoZone at Buy with a $3,800 price target, citing commercial growth.", "source": "Benzinga report on Bank of America note, 2026-10-26", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "CFO Jamere Jackson exercised options on 6,900 shares at $1,139.99 and sold 6,900 shares at an average of $3,319.71 on 2026-11-04.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-06", "as_of": "2026-11-04" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Consumer Cyclical", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-05-09", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "value_musd": 4840.9, "yoy_pct": 8.4 }, { "end": "2026-02-14", "filed": "2026-03-20", "value_musd": 4274.1, "yoy_pct": 8.1 }, { "end": "2025-11-22", "filed": "2025-12-19", "value_musd": 4628.6, "yoy_pct": 8.2 }, { "end": "2025-05-10", "filed": "2026-06-12", "value_musd": 4464.3, "yoy_pct": 5.4 }, { "end": "2025-02-15", "filed": "2026-03-20", "value_musd": 3952, "yoy_pct": 2.4 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "pct": 52.2 }, { "end": "2026-02-14", "filed": "2026-03-20", "pct": 52.5 }, { "end": "2025-11-22", "filed": "2025-12-19", "pct": 51 }, { "end": "2025-05-10", "filed": "2026-06-12", "pct": 52.7 }, { "end": "2025-02-15", "filed": "2026-03-20", "pct": 53.9 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "pct": 19.1 }, { "end": "2026-02-14", "filed": "2026-03-20", "pct": 16.3 }, { "end": "2025-11-22", "filed": "2025-12-19", "pct": 16.9 }, { "end": "2025-05-10", "filed": "2026-06-12", "pct": 19.4 }, { "end": "2025-02-15", "filed": "2026-03-20", "pct": 17.9 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "value_musd": 813.3 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "value_musd": 641.5 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not available" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-05-09", "filed": "2026-06-12", "base_end": "2025-05-10", "pct": -2.1 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-08-29", "filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": 326.1 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-08-29", "filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": 9125 }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-08-29", "filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": -8798.9 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-08-29", "filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": 755 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-08-29", "filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": -2502.5 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": 52462.7 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-19", "basis_filed": "2026-10-26", "value_musd": 61261.6 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "not available" }, "pb": { "status": "not meaningful" }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.58, "days_to_cover": 2.9, "change_pct": 8.9 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 22905994.3, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 1672110.58, "sold_usd": 61769718.52, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAutoZone is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its domestic same-store sales are growing far more slowly than O'Reilly Automotive's, and the latest quarter's profit growth leaned on one-time margin gains. The first-quarter fiscal 2027 report on 2026-12-08 shows whether sales start to speed up, as the chief executive said they would.\n\nFor the 16 weeks ended 2026-08-29, AutoZone reported domestic same-store sales growth of 1.6%, according to its 2026-09-22 results release. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 15.1% to $56.05. Gross margin rose 182 basis points to 53.3%, but 145 basis points of that came from tariff refunds and 105 basis points from a net non-cash LIFO (last-in, first-out inventory accounting) benefit. Operating expenses rose to 33.4% of sales from 32.4%. Without the two accounting and refund items, the quarter shows costs growing faster than sales.\n\nThe rating is Low because O'Reilly, the closest peer, reported comparable store sales growth of 7.2% for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 and raised its full-year range to 5.5%–6.5%. AutoZone's chief financial officer is also leaving on 2026-11-25 with no permanent successor named. The release gave no numeric guidance for fiscal 2027.\n\nOn price, the shares closed at $3,252.19 on 2026-11-12. That is 18.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $3,996.24 from 2025-12-01 and level with the 200-day moving average. In the market's view, the slowdown is partly priced, but so is a fiscal 2027 recovery that same-store sales have not yet shown.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Commercial sales are still growing fast.** Domestic commercial sales rose 8.6% to $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and average weekly sales per commercial program rose 2.7%, according to the 2026-09-22 release.\n- **Steady buybacks shrink the share count.** AutoZone bought back 579,000 shares for $2.0 billion in fiscal 2026, including $697.5 million at an average of $3,125 in the fourth quarter. It had $1.6 billion of authorization left at year end, according to the 2026-09-22 release.\n- **Store growth is speeding up.** The company opened 374 stores in fiscal 2026, ending with 8,031, including 1,001 in Mexico and 167 in Brazil. It opened 16 US Mega Hub stores in the fourth quarter, according to the 2026-09-22 release.\n- **The trend improved late in the quarter.** Domestic same-store sales averaged about 1.4% in the first 12 weeks of the fourth quarter, then 2.1% in August, according to earnings-call coverage of 2026-09-22.\n- **Some analysts see upside.** Bank of America reinstated coverage at Buy with a $3,800 target on 2026-10-26, citing commercial growth. Rothschild & Co Redburn's target is $4,450, cut from $4,700 on 2026-10-26.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Losing ground to O'Reilly.** O'Reilly's comparable store sales rose 7.2% in its quarter ended 2026-09-30, with professional sales up slightly more than 10%. AutoZone's domestic same-store sales rose 1.6% in its quarter ended 2026-08-29. The two quarters end a month apart, but the gap is wide.\n- **Margin gains will not repeat.** Tariff refunds added $96 million and 145 basis points to fourth-quarter gross margin, according to the 2026-09-22 release. For fiscal 2026 as a whole, gross margin fell to 52.3% from 52.6%.\n- **Costs are rising faster than sales.** Operating expenses rose to 33.4% of sales from 32.4% in the fourth quarter, which the company put down to growth spending. Full-year operating profit rose 3.1% on sales up 7.4%.\n- **Inventory is growing faster than sales.** Merchandise inventory rose 10.1% to $7.7 billion while quarterly sales grew 5.6%. Net inventory per store, after payables, moved to negative $107,000 from negative $131,000, so suppliers are funding less of the stock.\n- **The finance chief is leaving.** Jamere Jackson resigned on 2026-10-20, effective 2026-11-25, to become chief financial officer of FedEx, according to AutoZone's 8-K of 2026-10-26. Controller J. Scott Murphy will act as principal financial officer while an outside search runs.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $3,252.19 on 2026-11-12. That is just above the 200-day moving average of $3,242.90 and well above the 50-day moving average of $3,013.69, both from adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-12. Over three months the shares gained 7.5%, from a $3,025.00 close on 2026-08-14.\n\nThe 52-week closing low was $2,792.03 on 2026-10-02. The rebound since then took the shares to a $3,308.97 close on 2026-11-05, then back to between $3,216.35 and $3,252.19 in the four sessions after it. The 52-week intraday high is $3,996.24, from 2025-12-01.\n\nThe case turns on two levels. Holding above the 200-day average would show buyers paying for a fiscal 2027 sales recovery before the 2026-12-08 report. Weekly closes back below the 50-day average would put the shares back where they traded around the fiscal 2026 report.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-25:** CFO Jamere Jackson's resignation takes effect; Controller J. Scott Murphy becomes interim principal financial officer. AutoZone reports its first quarter without a permanent finance chief. Naming an outside successor would remove a source of uncertainty about how capital, buybacks and margins are managed.\n- **2026-12-08:** First-quarter fiscal 2027 results, for the quarter ended 2026-11-21. Domestic same-store sales show whether the 2.1% August pace is speeding up toward O'Reilly's growth rate. Gross margin shows how much of fiscal 2026's margin gain disappears without tariff refunds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA weekly close above $3,308.97, the 2026-11-05 close, which would show the rebound from the October low extending and the shares leading; or first-quarter fiscal 2027 domestic same-store sales growth above 3% on 2026-12-08.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nAutoZone trades mainly with the other auto-parts retailers, O'Reilly Automotive and Advance Auto Parts, and on its own same-store sales figures. It has little exposure to the technology and AI names that drive much of the S&P 500. That makes the three-month comparison mostly a question of whether AutoZone's sales recover while the index's growth leaders keep rising.\n\nOver long periods it has compounded well. Benzinga calculated on 2026-11-11 that the shares returned 18.11% a year on average over 20 years, 9.31 percentage points a year ahead of the market, with a market capitalization of $51.78 billion. Bank of America took AutoZone out of its \"Value 10\" portfolio in the 2026-11-04 rebalance after the company's earnings-surprise ratings fell below that list's threshold.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:44:00+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }