{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BRUN",
  "name": "Boost Run Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRUN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRUN.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Boost Run's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: third-quarter 2026 revenue missed, a $13 million-a-month Georgia project slipped to 2027, and its 2027 hardware plan far exceeds its cash. The end-November 2026 deployment milestone and the fourth-quarter report test whether delivery and financing catch up.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $12.35, the 50-day moving average as of 2026-11-11, which would show the shares leading again; or Boost Run announcing that the Georgia project went live before 2027 alongside financing for its 2027 hardware plan without new shares.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "gpu-cloud-neoclouds",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Boost Run listed on Nasdaq through a merger with the special-purpose acquisition company Willow Lane Acquisition Corp.; its trading history as BRUN is short.",
    "The company redeemed all outstanding public and private warrants in August 2026, according to its third-quarter 2026 release.",
    "Management reports no parent-level bank or bond debt, but GPUs are financed through finance leases and project-level debt that carry fixed payments."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Boost Run Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002090646/000149315226051247/ex99-1.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings call transcript: Boost Run Q3 2026 revenue jumps 496% as shares sink",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-boost-run-q3-2026-revenue-jumps-496-as-shares-sink-93CH-5022546",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Boost Run Inc Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $39.9 Million, Misses Analyst Estimates of $53.40 Million",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9194794/boost-run-inc-reports-q3-2026-revenue-of-399-million-misses-analyst-estimates-of-5340-million",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Boost Run (NASDAQ:BRUN) Hits New 52-Week Low on Analyst Downgrade",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-boost-run-nasdaq-brun-hits-new-52-week-low-on-analyst-downgrade-2026-11-12/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "BTIG Research Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Boost Run (NASDAQ:BRUN) Stock Price",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-btig-research-issues-pessimistic-forecast-for-boost-run-nasdaq-brun-stock-price-2026-11-12/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Boost Run (BRUN) Shares Slide -51% in 30 Days: What's Behind the Move",
      "url": "https://tickeron.com/blogs/boost-run-brun-shares-slide-51-in-30-days-what-s-behind-the-move-23711/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Boost Run (BRUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/BRUN/forecast/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/346553/boost-run-announces-144-billion-agreement-with-dell-technologies-to-further-facilitate-enterprise-demand-for-ai-compute-and-storage-infrastructure",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $39.9 million, up from $6.7 million a year earlier; operating cash flow was $65.6 million.",
      "source": "Boost Run 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total contract value reached $2.7 billion, up $800 million from the previous quarter.",
      "source": "Boost Run 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $39.9 million missed the $53.40 million analyst estimate.",
      "source": "GuruFocus, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "A Georgia project worth about $13 million of monthly recurring revenue was pushed from the third quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.",
      "source": "Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management plans $4–5 billion of hardware procurement for 2027; unrestricted cash was $157 million at quarter-end.",
      "source": "Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net loss was $14.1 million, or $0.17 per share, in the third quarter of 2026.",
      "source": "Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Sean Goodrich sold 500,000 shares at $14.00 in an open-market sale.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-09-16",
      "as_of": "2026-09-14"
    },
    {
      "claim": "BTIG kept a Buy rating and lowered its price target to $25.",
      "source": "MarketBeat report of BTIG analyst action, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "value_musd": 39.9,
              "yoy_pct": 491.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "value_musd": 31.1,
              "yoy_pct": 269.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "value_musd": 6.7,
              "yoy_pct": null
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "value_musd": 8.4,
              "yoy_pct": null
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "pct": 95.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "pct": 94.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "pct": 82.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "pct": 93.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "pct": -42.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "pct": -41.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "pct": -201.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-18",
              "pct": 35.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": -23.9
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": -14.1
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 157
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 6.3,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 19,
          "yoy_pct": null
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 42.8
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 170.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-03-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-06-01",
          "value_musd": 0
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-12",
          "multiple": 0
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-11-13",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 685626500,
      "days_to_cover": 1.8,
      "change_pct": 37.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-14",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-17",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 10993730,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-15",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 10993730,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nBoost Run's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The contract book is large, but third-quarter 2026 revenue missed estimates, a major Georgia project slipped to 2027, and the 2027 hardware plan needs far more capital than the company holds. The end-November 2026 deployment milestone and the fourth-quarter report test whether delivery and financing catch up.\n\nBoost Run rents NVIDIA graphics-processor (GPU) computing capacity to AI customers from leased US data-center space. It reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $39.9 million on 2026-11-12, up from $6.7 million a year earlier, according to its 8-K. GuruFocus put the analyst estimate at $53.40 million. On the 2026-11-12 call, management said the Georgia project, worth about $13 million of monthly recurring revenue, moved from the third quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.\n\nThe shares closed at $5.92 on 2026-11-12, the day of the report, down from $7.38 the session before and 85.9% below the $42.00 intraday high of 2026-06-03. At that price the market is pricing deep doubt that the company can fund and deliver its $2.7 billion contract book. The rating is Low because neither the delays nor the financing question can be settled before the first-quarter 2027 deployments.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Contracted revenue keeps climbing.** Total contract value reached $2.7 billion at the third-quarter report, up $800 million from the previous quarter, according to the 2026-11-12 release. The company says all of it is live, being deployed or contracted for 2027 deployment.\n- **Revenue is scaling quarter to quarter.** Third-quarter revenue of $39.9 million rose from $31.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, according to company filings. The loss of $0.17 per share matched the consensus estimate, MarketBeat reported on 2026-11-12.\n- **Management points to a much larger run rate.** On the 2026-11-12 call, management said the fully deployed contract book could produce about $750 million of annual recurring revenue. It expects about 26% of total contract value to be live by the end of November 2026.\n- **Customers prepay part of the build.** Management cited about $482 million of customer prepayments due on deployment and more than $600 million of project financing secured year to date on the 2026-11-12 call. The chief executive said prepayments cover about 38% of capital spending on upcoming projects.\n- **Cash generation was positive in the quarter.** The 2026-11-12 release reported $65.6 million of operating cash flow for the third quarter and $157 million of unrestricted cash at 2026-09-30.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Third-quarter revenue missed by a wide margin.** Revenue of $39.9 million fell short of the $53.40 million estimate GuruFocus cited on 2026-11-12. Management said that without the Georgia delay, the exit annual run rate would have been about $435 million by year-end 2026.\n- **Deployment timing keeps slipping.** The Georgia project of more than 5,000 GPUs moved to the first quarter of 2027 after a city council process, management said on 2026-11-12. Two other projects slipped one to two weeks because of weather-related power activation delays in Illinois.\n- **The 2027 hardware plan dwarfs the balance sheet.** Management described $4–5 billion of planned hardware procurement for 2027 on the 2026-11-12 call, against $157 million of unrestricted cash at 2026-09-30. Third-quarter GPU finance-lease principal payments were $109.8 million.\n- **The company is still losing money.** The net loss was $14.1 million, or $0.17 per share, in the third quarter of 2026, according to the call transcript.\n- **A director sold into the rally and the decline.** SEC Form 4 filings show director Sean Goodrich exercised options on 1,101,986 shares at $11.50 on 2026-08-19. He sold 198,200 shares at $20.15 on 2026-08-27 and 500,000 shares at $14.00 on 2026-09-14.\n- **The analyst target came down.** BTIG kept its Buy rating but lowered its target to $25 on 2026-11-12, MarketBeat reported. MarketBeat had reported BTIG reiterating a $45 target on 2026-08-14.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $5.92 on 2026-11-12, after $7.38 on 2026-11-11. Adjusted daily closes show a 74.2% decline over three months, from $22.93 on 2026-08-14. The last close sits far below the 50-day moving average of $12.13 and the 200-day moving average of $17.78, both as of 2026-11-12.\n\nThe 52-week closing low is $5.56 on 2026-11-05, and the 52-week high is $42.00 intraday on 2026-06-03. The shares rebounded from that low to $7.38 over four sessions, then gave most of it back on the results. A close beneath $5.56 would mark a new closing low and extend the decline. A sustained recovery toward the 50-day average would show the market treating the Georgia delay as a timing issue.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-30 (est.):** Management's target of about 26% of the $2.7 billion contract value live by the end of November 2026. Hitting the milestone on time would show the deployment delays are confined to the Georgia project; another slip would extend them into 2027.\n- **~2027-03-15 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. It shows whether revenue grew significantly in the fourth quarter as management said, and how the 2027 hardware plan is being financed.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $12.35, the 50-day moving average as of 2026-11-11, which would show the shares leading again; or Boost Run announcing that the Georgia project went live before 2027 alongside financing for its 2027 hardware plan without new shares.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares fell with the October 2026 sell-off in AI, semiconductor and GPU-cloud stocks. Tickeron tied an 11.81% drop to $8.89 on 2026-10-16 to a risk-off session across the Nasdaq and chip stocks. That makes the stock a high-volatility member of the GPU-cloud group, exposed to the group's swings in sentiment as well as to its own deployment schedule. Its supply chain runs through NVIDIA hardware and a $1.44 billion purchase agreement with Dell Technologies, announced 2026-04-22. Shifts in AI-infrastructure spending and in credit terms for GPU-backed financing are likely to show up in the shares faster than in reported revenue.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:51:06+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}