{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "BSX", "name": "Boston Scientific Corporation", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSX/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSX.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a7", "n": 7 }, "current_thesis": "Boston Scientific shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: a cyberattack, falling Watchman sales and lost ablation share turned fourth-quarter sales guidance negative. The fourth-quarter report expected around 4 February 2027, with the first 2027 guidance, shows whether growth returns.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $51.83, the 2026-08-14 close, which would erase the three-month loss and show the shares leading; or fourth-quarter 2026 sales that grow from a year earlier, against guidance for a 1%–3% decline.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "medtech-diagnostics" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "Boston Scientific's 2026 guidance and its early commentary on 2027 exclude the pending Penumbra acquisition, so reported figures will change once that deal closes.", "Boston Scientific pays no common dividend, so shareholder returns come from price change alone." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "Boston Scientific Sinks 12% as Cyberattack Forces Guidance Cut: “A Challenging Year”", "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/boston-scientific-sinks-12-as-cyberattack-forces-guidance-cut-a-challenging-year", "date": "2026-10-28" }, { "title": "Boston Scientific announces results for third quarter 2026", "url": "https://meddeviceguide.com/press-releases/boston-scientific-announces-results-for-third-quarter-2026-20261028ne82628", "date": "2026-10-28" }, { "title": "Boston Scientific’s Cyberattack Cuts Guidance And Warns Of 2027 ‘Trough’ As FARAWAVE Ultra, FARAFLEX", "url": "https://insights.citeline.com/medtech-insight/business/earnings/boston-scientifics-cyberattack-cuts-guidance-and-warns-of-2027-trough-as-farawave-ultra-faraflex-UDSEPJDWOVCCBMMF5K3IH3FHTE/", "date": null }, { "title": "RBC cuts Boston Scientific stock price target on guidance reduction", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rbc-cuts-boston-scientific-stock-price-target-on-guidance-reduction-93CH-4984342", "date": null }, { "title": "BSX Stock Looks To Snap 3-Week Winning Streak: Analysts Downgrade Boston Scientific As Cyberattack And Slowing Growth Cloud Outlook", "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:3911d1dc8094b:0-bsx-stock-looks-to-snap-3-week-winning-streak-analysts-downgrade-boston-scientific-as-cyberattack-and-slowing-growth-cloud-outlook/", "date": null }, { "title": "Why Did Boston Scientific Stock Jump?", "url": "https://www.trefis.com/stock/bsx/articles/622234/why-did-boston-scientific-stock-jump/2026-11-03", "date": "2026-11-03" }, { "title": "What Could Go Wrong At Boston Scientific From Here?", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/could-wrong-boston-scientific-100653480.html", "date": null }, { "title": "Boston Scientific To Acquire Penumbra In $14.5 Billion Deal To Expand Vascular And Neurovascular Portfolio", "url": "https://pulse2.com/boston-scientific-to-acquire-penumbra-in-14-5-billion-deal-to-expand-vascular-and-neurovascular-portfolio", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $5.138 billion, up 1.5% on reported and organic bases; adjusted EPS was $0.73 against $0.75 a year earlier.", "source": "Boston Scientific third-quarter 2026 results release", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was cut to $3.16–$3.18 from $3.28–$3.32; fourth-quarter sales are guided to fall 1%–3% from a year earlier.", "source": "Boston Scientific third-quarter 2026 results release and TIKR report", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "Watchman sales fell 6% in the third quarter of 2026 after growing nearly 30% in 2025.", "source": "TIKR report on the third-quarter 2026 call", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "The August 2026 cyberattack shut every plant and distribution center for eight days and cost about 300 basis points of third-quarter growth.", "source": "TIKR and Citeline Medtech Insight reports on the third-quarter call", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "Neuromodulation sales rose 13.0% organically to $331 million in the third quarter of 2026, while Urology fell 3.1%.", "source": "Boston Scientific third-quarter 2026 results release", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "The SIMPLAAFY randomized trial of Watchman FLX Pro met its six-month primary endpoint; the shares rose 5.6% that session.", "source": "Company announcement; Trefis report of 2026-11-03", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "Blackstone Life Sciences agreed to co-fund development of the Vitalyst temporary heart pump with $455 million.", "source": "Boston Scientific and Blackstone Life Sciences announcement", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "Director Susan Morano bought 2,040 shares in the open market at $49.22.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-08-26", "as_of": "2026-08-25" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Healthcare", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 5138, "yoy_pct": 1.4 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "value_musd": 5442, "yoy_pct": 7.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "value_musd": 5203, "yoy_pct": 11.6 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-17", "value_musd": 5286, "yoy_pct": 15.9 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 5065, "yoy_pct": 20.3 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "value_musd": 5061, "yoy_pct": 22.8 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "pct": 66.7 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "pct": 70.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "pct": 69.5 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-17", "pct": 69.6 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "pct": 69.9 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "pct": 67.7 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "pct": 16.1 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "pct": 21.6 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "pct": 21.2 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-17", "pct": 15.6 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "pct": 20.7 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "pct": 16.2 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 733 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 580, "four_quarters_musd": 3494 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 4234 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 903 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 3331 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -2.9 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 609 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 11953, "composition": "non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": -11344 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 711, "yoy_pct": 6.4 }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 3113 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 3317 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 25630 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 64269.6 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 75613.6 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 3.6 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 19.2 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 18.4 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 2.5 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-29", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "pct": 5.2 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.81, "days_to_cover": 2.6, "change_pct": -1.7 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 100408.8, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 10039630.24, "sold_usd": 16801453.64, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nBoston Scientific shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. An August cyberattack, falling Watchman sales and lost share in electrophysiology have turned fourth-quarter sales guidance negative, and management has warned that 2027 will be hard. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-02-04 with the first 2027 guidance, decides whether the low valuation has already priced the worst.\n\nThe third-quarter report of 2026-10-28 shows the break. Sales were $5.138 billion, up 1.5% from a year earlier, against 9.5% growth in the first half (TIKR, 2026-10-28). The company guided fourth-quarter sales to fall 1%–3% and cut full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $3.16–$3.18 from $3.28–$3.32. Chief executive Michael Mahoney said the company \"will be challenged to grow sales and adjusted EPS next year\" excluding the pending Penumbra acquisition.\n\nThe market has priced a reset. The 2026-11-12 close of $44.20 is 58.2% below the 52-week high of $105.65 (2025-11-13), and TIKR put the forward price-to-earnings ratio near 13.5 on 2026-10-28, against a five-year average of 26. The rating is Low because no dated event before the February report is likely to show recovery, and management has already said 2027 guidance will show little growth.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Valuation sits near five-year lows.** TIKR reported on 2026-10-28 that the forward price-to-earnings ratio briefly matched June's five-year low of about 12.4 before settling near 13.5, against a 38 peak in February 2025.\n- **New Watchman trial data.** On 2026-11-02 the company reported that the SIMPLAAFY randomized trial of Watchman FLX Pro met its six-month primary endpoint; the shares rose 5.6% that session while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% (Trefis, 2026-11-03). The Elite AF trial of the next-generation Watchman Elite has begun enrolling (third-quarter release, 2026-10-28).\n- **Outside money for the heart pump.** Blackstone Life Sciences agreed on 2026-11-02 to co-fund development of the Vitalyst temporary heart pump with $455 million, which shares the cost of a program that has not yet earned revenue.\n- **Parts of the business still grow.** Neuromodulation sales rose 13.0% organically to $331 million and EMEA sales rose 6.1% operationally in the third quarter of 2026 (company release, 2026-10-28).\n- **A director bought before the guidance cut.** Director Susan Morano bought 2,040 shares in the open market at $49.22 on 2026-08-25 (SEC Form 4), above the current price.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The cyberattack sent orders to rivals.** The August attack shut every plant and distribution center for eight days, and Mahoney said \"some hospitals likely ordered from others\" (TIKR, 2026-10-28). The company put the cost at about 300 basis points of third-quarter growth, with more drag in the fourth quarter (Citeline, 2026-10-28).\n- **Watchman has turned to decline.** Watchman sales fell 6% in the third quarter of 2026 after growing nearly 30% in 2025, and management assumes Watchman market conditions do not improve in 2027 (TIKR and the earnings call, 2026-10-28).\n- **Electrophysiology share is eroding.** Management said on 2026-10-28 that its strong electrophysiology share has eroded as new technologies entered the market, and that the cyberattack sped up the shift.\n- **Guidance cut three times this year.** Full-year 2026 sales growth guidance fell to about 4.25%, from 5.5%–6.5% in July and 10.5%–11.5% in February (TIKR, 2026-10-28). Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.77–$0.79 compares with the $0.83 analysts expected before the report.\n- **Analysts have moved to neutral.** After the report, Jefferies (2026-10-29) and TD Cowen (2026-10-30) downgraded to Hold with $46 targets, JPMorgan moved to Neutral and cut its target to $46 from $56, Barclays cut its target to $45, and RBC cut its target to $52 from $70 while keeping Outperform.\n- **Penumbra adds integration work in a trough year.** The $14.5 billion Penumbra acquisition, agreed in January 2026, is expected to close in early 2027 and is excluded from guidance (third-quarter call, 2026-10-28).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- The shares closed at $44.20 on 2026-11-12. The 50-day moving average is $44.06 and the 200-day moving average is $54.38, both as of that close. The price sits on the 50-day average and well below the 200-day.\n- The 52-week closing low is $41.58, set on 2026-10-07. The lowest close of the post-report period shown here, $42.75 on 2026-11-06, stayed above it.\n- From 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-12, closes ranged from $42.75 to $45.13. The positive Watchman data and the Blackstone funding did not lift the shares out of that range.\n- The three-month price change is −14.7%. That period began before the company disclosed the cyberattack on 2026-08-26 and covers the guidance cut on 2026-10-28.\n- Analyst targets set after the report cluster at $45–$52, close to the current price, which leaves the shares without a valuation pull from the sell side.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-04 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results and first full-year 2027 guidance. Shows whether fourth-quarter sales fell as guided and how much growth management sees for 2027 after warning it will be challenged to grow sales and adjusted EPS.\n- **Early 2027 (est.):** Expected closing of the $14.5 billion Penumbra acquisition. Adds a growing thrombectomy business that current guidance excludes, and adds integration work and share dilution in a year management already calls difficult.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $51.83, the 2026-08-14 close, which would erase the three-month loss and show the shares leading; or fourth-quarter 2026 sales that grow from a year earlier, against guidance for a 1%–3% decline.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Company-specific events drive the stock. Over the twelve months to early November 2026 the shares fell 56.8% while the S&P 500 returned 9.8% (StockStory via Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-07).\n- Within medical devices, the shares are tied to the left atrial appendage closure market (Watchman) and to competition in pulsed-field ablation for atrial fibrillation, where management said on 2026-10-28 that newer rival technologies took share.\n- Penumbra shareholders can choose 3.8721 Boston Scientific shares for each Penumbra share, subject to proration, under the January 2026 deal terms. Until the deal closes, Penumbra's share price partly tracks Boston Scientific's.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:46:32+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }