{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "COAG",
  "name": "Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COAG/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COAG.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Hemab Therapeutics' lead drug sutacimig cut treated bleeds about 84% in a rare bleeding disorder and is headed for Phase 3; the 10 November 2026 update shows whether the second-half 2026 start is on track.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $34, the first-day close after the April 2026 IPO, which would erase every gain since listing day. An FDA clinical hold on sutacimig or a serious clotting event attributed to the drug would also end the thesis.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-10",
  "pick": {
    "id": "P-2026-11-06-COAG",
    "conviction": "MEDIUM",
    "status": "open",
    "opened": "2026-11-06",
    "open_close": 49.02,
    "kill_level": 34,
    "kill_basis": "daily",
    "horizon_end": "2027-02-09",
    "last_date": "2026-11-06",
    "last_close": 49.02,
    "return_pct": 0,
    "spy_return_pct": 0,
    "excess_pp": 0,
    "kill_distance_pct": 44.176470588235304,
    "closed": null,
    "close_reason": null,
    "outcome": null,
    "scoreboard": "https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/"
  },
  "themes": [
    "rare-disease-gene-therapy"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Hemab has no approved products and no product-sales revenue, per its first-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q.",
    "The shares have traded on Nasdaq only since the IPO priced on 2026-04-30, so the price history is short."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Hemab Therapeutics to Present Clinical and Preclinical Data from Multiple Blood Coagulation Programs at the 68th ASH Annual Meeting and Exposition",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/04/3395417/0/en/hemab-therapeutics-to-present-clinical-and-preclinical-data-from-multiple-blood-coagulation-programs-at-the-68th-ash-annual-meeting-and-exposition.html",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Hemab Therapeutics Presents Clinical and Preclinical Data from Sutacimig in Glanzmann Thrombasthenia and Factor VII Deficiency at the ISTH 2026 Congress",
      "url": "https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/hemab-therapeutics-presents-clinical-and-preclinical-data-from-sutacimig-in-glanzmann-thrombasthenia-and-factor-vii-deficiency-at-the-isth-2026-congress",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "EX-99.1 2 d180684dex991.htm EX-99.1 EX-99.1",
      "url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2114044/000119312526343421/d180684dex991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002114044/000119312526234386/d845757d10q.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (COAG)",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/coag/forecast/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "hemab therapeutics details post ipo pipeline push sutacimig phase iii plans 2026 06 08",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/hemab-therapeutics-details-post-ipo-pipeline-push-sutacimig-phase-iii-plans-2026-06-08/",
      "date": "2026-06-08"
    },
    {
      "title": "The IPO Buzz: Hemab Therapeutics (COAG) Prices Upsized IPO at $18 – Top – & Stock Pops",
      "url": "https://www.pulse.bot/small-cap-stocks/news/the-ipo-buzz-hemab-therapeutics-coag-prices-upsized-ipo-at-18-top-stock-pops-af4565bd-7474-453b-873a-148f8d8bd8e9/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "dwzwlrw1 multi asset coagulation portfolio will build a durable rare bleeding disorder franchise",
      "url": "https://www.simplywall.st/narratives/dwzwlrw1-multi-asset-coagulation-portfolio-will-build-a-durable-rare-bleeding-disorder-franchise",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nHemab Therapeutics' lead drug, sutacimig, cut treated bleeds by about 84% in a rare bleeding disorder and has a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) route to a pivotal trial. The third-quarter update on 2026-11-10 shows whether the Phase 3 start in Glanzmann thrombasthenia is still on track for the second half of 2026.\n\nThe case rests on one drug moving from strong mid-stage results into a registration trial, with cash the company says lasts into 2029. The narrative is accelerating: J.P. Morgan and Rodman & Renshaw began coverage in October 2026, and on 2026-11-04 the company named its December data presentations. This is a newly listed, emerging name with no product revenue, and clinical news drives its value.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Large bleed reduction in mid-stage testing.** At the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis 2026 Congress, Hemab reported on 34 participants at a median of 6.9 months, with up to 15.9 months of exposure. Mean annualized treated bleed rate fell about 84% in the low-dose weekly group, and the CEO has cited reductions of up to 87%.\n- **Regulators have cleared the path.** The FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation for preventing bleeds in Glanzmann thrombasthenia in March 2026. The company's August 2026 update says the FDA endorsed its clinical package as sufficient for a Phase 3 pivotal trial at 0.2 mg/kg once weekly, with a start planned in the second half of 2026.\n- **Funding reaches beyond the next trial stage.** The initial public offering (IPO) closed on 2026-05-04 with 19,262,500 shares at $18.00 and about $317.2 million of net proceeds, per the company's 10-Q. The same filing shows $163.5 million of cash and securities at 2026-03-31, and the company has guided to a runway into 2029.\n- **A second indication reaches the clinic.** Hemab's 2026-11-04 announcement says its first clinical results in Factor VII deficiency show multi-fold accumulation of the patient's own Factor VII after a single under-the-skin dose. They will be presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting on 2026-12-12 to 2026-12-15.\n- **Sell-side coverage is widening.** J.P. Morgan started coverage on 2026-10-15 with an Overweight rating and a $70 target, and Rodman & Renshaw started on 2026-10-12 with a $56 target. StockAnalysis shows an average target of $62.67 from six analysts, 37.52% above the 2026-11-05 close.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Clotting is the central safety question.** Three participants in the long-term study had Grade 2 thromboembolic events, per Hemab's congress release, though no related events of Grade 3 or higher occurred. A larger Phase 3 population is where any clotting risk in a drug that promotes coagulation would show more clearly.\n- **Pivotal trial not yet reported as started.** The August 2026 update still described the Phase 3 start as planned. A news search on 2026-11-06 found no report of a first patient dosed, and only eight weeks of the company's stated window remain.\n- **Trial design may carry uncertainty.** In June 2026 management said the choice between a single-arm and a randomized design was still under discussion, per MarketBeat on 2026-06-08. A randomized trial would generally take longer and cost more than a single-arm one.\n- **The December readout is early.** The Factor VII results come from early Phase 2b participants after one dose, which is thin support for the indication. ASH says abstracts for the meeting are already available, so part of the news may already be public.\n- **No revenue and rising costs.** The first-quarter 2026 10-Q reports no approved products, a net loss of $22.7 million against $15.3 million a year earlier, and research and development expense of $19.5 million against $14.1 million.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $45.57 on 2026-11-05, up $0.48 or 1.06% on the day per StockAnalysis, and are down 8.6% over three months on adjusted daily closes. The IPO priced at $18.00 on 2026-04-30. The shares opened at $27 on their first day and closed at $34.\n\nA Simply Wall St piece from September 2026 cited a share price of $41.19. The 14-day relative strength index, a 0-to-100 momentum gauge on which readings above 70 are commonly called overbought, stands at 93.2. That reading shows a sharp, nearly uninterrupted recent rise inside a three-month decline.\n\nCrowding evidence is mixed. The momentum reading is extreme, and earnings fall on 2026-11-10, within days. A news search on 2026-11-06 found no report of a follow-on share offering or insider sales since the IPO, but it was not a line-by-line review of SEC Form 4 filings. Goldman Sachs' last listed target of $46, set on 2026-07-14, sits just above the close. Wedbush's $64 and H.C. Wainwright's $60, both set in August 2026, sit well above it.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-11-10: third-quarter results and corporate update call.** This should give the September-end cash balance and the latest word on Phase 3 timing and design.\n- **~2026-12-31, est.: end of the company's second-half window for the Phase 3 start.** A first-patient announcement would confirm the timetable.\n- **2026-12-12 to 2026-12-15: ASH Annual Meeting, New Orleans (outside 30 days).** Hemab presents first clinical Factor VII deficiency results for sutacimig and preclinical HMB-003 work in a monkey model of severe menstrual bleeding. It is listed because it is the next public test of the second indication.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nAn FDA clinical hold on sutacimig or a clotting event of Grade 3 or higher attributed to the drug would break the case, because safety is what separates this drug from a commercially usable preventive treatment. So would a Phase 3 start slipping past 2026-12-31 without a clear reason, or a required design that materially extends the trial.\n\nA cut to the into-2029 cash runway, or a share sale so soon after a $317.2 million IPO, would weaken the funding argument. A Factor VII presentation showing weak or short-lived factor accumulation in December would remove the second indication from the near-term case.\n\nOn price, a daily close below $34, the first-day close after the IPO, would erase every gain since listing day and end the thesis as written. A first-patient announcement with a clean safety update would strengthen the case.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe rare-disease and gene-therapy group, which includes DTIL and VRDN on this site, moved from maturing on 2026-08-07 to accelerating on 2026-11-06 in the weekly theme read. COAG's case rests on its own trial events, so warmer group interest helps at the margin and does not carry the thesis. That view would be wrong if COAG repeatedly fell alongside DTIL and VRDN on days with no company news. Its short trading history since the 2026-05-01 debut is too brief to support a measured correlation with the group or the S&P 500.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-06",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-06T12:17:44+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-06",
  "last_update_source": "research_universe",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}