{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "COHU",
  "name": "Cohu, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Best fundamental print of the AI cycle (2026-07-30: rev $149M vs $144.08M cons.; Q3 guided $163–177M vs $146.33M) collided with a sector de-rate — the stock closed $52.88 on 2026-08-07, 28.5% under its $73.91 high and beneath the June re-rate shelf. Narrative now saturated: five targets at $65–80, all struck above spot, none cut yet.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $47 completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low; secondarily, a Q3 FY26 revenue print beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-25",
  "outcome": "PLAYED_OUT",
  "outcome_date": "2026-08-17",
  "invalidation_fired": false,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "semi-foundry-equipment",
    "semiconductors-analog",
    "ai-chips-memory"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "$260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031-01-15 (priced Sept 2025, upsized from $200M) sit above the equity in the capital structure.",
    "Headline EPS is non-GAAP. Q1 FY26 on 2026-04-30 still printed a GAAP net loss of $12.1M, or -$0.26 per share.",
    "Small-cap semicap with high beta to the back-end test cluster; sector flow moves the stock as much as company disclosure does.",
    "Insider ownership figures include large unvested RSU blocks - the 2026-08-19 Form 4 shows 159,702 shares held of which 109,565 are unvested RSUs."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "\n_All prices are split/dividend-adjusted daily closes; the reference close is 2026-08-21._\n\n## COHU — Cohu, Inc.\n\n## Current Thesis\nThe picks-and-shovels leg is AI/HPC test handling (Eclipse with Active Thermal Control) plus HBM inspection (Neon), and the fundamental case has not been revised since 2026-07-30: Q2 FY26 revenue $149.0M (+38% YoY) against $144.08M consensus, non-GAAP EPS $0.26 against $0.14, and a Q3 guide of $163–177M against a $146.33M consensus. What has moved since this coverage last ran on 2026-08-08 is the tape, not the model. The 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 marked the low-water point of the late-July chip de-rate; the 2026-08-21 close is $54.37, still 26.4% under the $73.91 52-week high, with a three-month price change of +16.8% and RSI(14) at 58.8. Price traded above $55 during the week of 2026-08-17 — a Form 4 sale cleared at $55.78–$55.97 on 2026-08-19 — and has closed back beneath the June re-rate shelf near $55. Two weeks of repair, no reclaim.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Q2 FY26 (reported 2026-07-30): revenue $149.0M, +38% YoY, versus $144.08M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $0.26 versus $0.14; non-GAAP gross margin 45.5%; recurring revenue 53% of total.** Investing.com's 2026-08-20 recap adds systems revenue +41% sequentially.\n- **Q3 FY26 guided to $163–177M (~$170M ±$7M, +14% sequential, +35% YoY) against $146.33M consensus**, gross margin ~45%, opex ~$54M. No revision to that guide has been published through 2026-08-21 — the number the late-October print is graded against is still the one issued 2026-07-30.\n- **HPC pipeline framed at ~$850M annually on the 2026-07-30 call**, up from ~$750M on 2026-04-30: $190M qualified across 4 customers, $250M in active qualification across 5, $445M early-stage across 10. FY26 HPC revenue outlook raised to $100–110M from $80–100M.\n- **Order mix rotated into compute in Q2**: computing 46% of system orders and +150% YoY; industrial orders +87% YoY; software analytics orders +140% YoY with its first $1M revenue quarter.\n- **A $26M Eclipse systems order booked in early July 2026**, with semiconductor test utilization at 80% at quarter end — management's stated marker for a customer capex turn.\n- **The published target stack has not been marked down.** TD Cowen $80 (2026-06-16), Baird $65 (2026-07-09), Stifel $70 (2026-07-10), Needham $65 and B. Riley $69 (both 2026-07-31). No cut has surfaced in analyst-action reporting between 2026-08-01 and 2026-08-21.\n\n## Bear Case\n- direct holdings after the sale are 159,702 shares, of which 109,565 are unvested RSUs (Investing.com insider-trading report, 2026-08-20).\n- **The bounce did not stick.** Investing.com's 2026-08-20 piece notes the shares fell 8.3% in the preceding week after climbing 180% over the trailing year. The 2026-08-21 close of $54.37 sits under the ~$55 shelf that prior coverage identified on 2026-07-12 as the level defining the June re-rate.\n- **Targets struck $65–80 against a $54.37 close are unresolved downgrade risk**, not support; every one of the five was set before the August drawdown and none has been revisited.\n- **Legacy end-markets are still contracting**: automotive orders −24% YoY in Q2 FY26.\n- **Input-cost pressure was flagged on the 2026-07-30 call** — longer lead times and higher prices for memory and specialty components, no shortages yet — against a ~45% Q3 gross-margin guide.\n- **GAAP has not caught up to the non-GAAP headline**: Q1 FY26 (2026-04-30) printed a GAAP net loss of $12.1M, or −$0.26 per share.\n- **The news window is empty.** The only dated company items in the past 30 days are conference appearances; the 2026-08-19 Needham virtual appearance produced no follow-on order or pipeline disclosure in the public flow.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Reference close 2026-08-21: **$54.37**. Distance from the $73.91 52-week high: **−26.4%**. Three-month price change: **+16.8%**. RSI(14): **58.8** — mid-range, neither washed out nor extended.\n- The structure is a partial repair of the late-July/early-August rout: from the 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 the stock has clawed back roughly a point and a half, tagged the mid-$55s intraweek on 2026-08-19 (evidenced by the Form 4 execution range), and closed back below the shelf. The June breakout area near $55 is the level that converts this from a bounce into a reclaim; it has not converted.\n- **The narrative is maturing.** Prior coverage on 2026-08-08 labelled it saturated at the point of maximum dislocation. Two weeks later the structure held above the rout low, the fundamental guide stands un-revised since 2026-07-30, and there has been neither a new bull headline nor a downgrade — well known, still working, flow moderating. The downgrade from saturated is a judgement about the last ten sessions and would revert if the $55 area rejects price a second time.\n- **Crowding/positioning observables, stated as observables:** an officer Form 4 sale at a weighted average $55.82 dated 2026-08-19; five sell-side targets clustered $65–80, all above spot, none revised since 2026-07-31; a trailing one-year price change of +180% (Investing.com, 2026-08-20); $260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031-01-15 sitting above the equity; no earnings date inside 30 days, so there is no imminent-print compression in the setup.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-10-29 (est.)** — Q3 FY26 results. Outside the 30-day window. Tests the $163–177M guide and the $100–110M FY26 HPC outlook.\n- **2026-11-10** — investor day, New York (company IR event calendar). Outside the window; next scheduled multi-year model update.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-08-25** — Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Technology Conference, Four Seasons Chicago (company announcement of investor-conference participation). The one dated venue in the window for order-cadence commentary and management's read on whether the late-July de-rate changed customer capex conversations. *(passed 1d ago)*\n- **2026-08-19 [elapsed]** — Needham Virtual Semiconductor Conference. Came and went without a public order or qualification-conversion update; the $250M active-qualification bucket is unchanged in the public record since 2026-07-30. *(passed 7d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe recovery's entire claim is that the ~$55 June re-rate shelf gets taken back on a closing beis— on a close, and turned into support. It has been touched and rejected once, on 2026-08-19. A second rejection followed by a give-back through the early-August lows would say the July beat-and-raise has been fully discounted and the multiple is doing the pricing. The gradeable break: **a weekly close below $47** completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low. On the fundamental side, Q3 FY26 revenue printing beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide, or an FY26 HPC revenue outlook cut back under $100M on that call, would be the first crack in the AI test ramp itself. A third condition, cheaper to observe: the first price-target cut from any of TD Cowen, Baird, Stifel, Needham or B. Riley would mark the sell-side stack beginning to converge down to price rather than price converging up to it. Conversely, a weekly close back above the $55 shelf with a follow-on Eclipse order disclosed would push the label back toward accelerating.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- High beta to the back-end test cluster. Teradyne, Onto Innovation and FormFactor move on the same AI-test capex narrative; sector-wide rally and de-rate days have set Cohu's direction more often than company disclosure has since 2026-07-28, when the chip complex began repricing on AI-capex-peaking and China-competition concerns (Bloomberg 2026-07-28; CNBC 2026-07-29 on more than $1T of chip market value shed).\n- HBM inspection ties the Neon line to memory capex, so DRAM/HBM capex commentary from the large memory makers is a read-through into the inspection order line.\n- Automotive and industrial test exposure runs the other way — the −24% YoY automotive order line in Q2 FY26 correlates with the analog/auto semi complex, which has been in its own downcycle.\n- Small float and a $260M convertible tranche mean index and sector-ETF flow move the equity disproportionately versus large-cap semicap peers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-04-22",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-22T07:43:06+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-22",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}