{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "CRMD", "name": "CorMedix Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRMD/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRMD.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a4", "n": 4 }, "current_thesis": "CorMedix shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its DefenCath drug has lost most of its Medicare premium and 2027 DefenCath guidance is suspended. A separate Medicare Advantage payment deal, which management hopes to report by the end of 2026, is the next test of that view.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $7.60, just over the 200-day moving average of $7.58 as of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares regaining their longer trend and leading the index; or a signed separate Medicare Advantage payment agreement for DefenCath with a top plan.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "CMS now recalculates the DefenCath Medicare add-on every quarter from utilization and pricing data, so DefenCath revenue can shift from one quarter to the next.", "The pending Heron Therapeutics asset purchase issues 14,583,333 new CorMedix shares at closing and needs Heron stockholder approval and regulatory clearance." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "SEC EDGAR", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001410098/000141009826000063/crmd_q32026earningspr.htm", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "CorMedix (CRMD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript", "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/12/cormedix-crmd-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "Finviz", "url": "https://finviz.com/news/413238/cormedix-reaffirms-2026-revenue-guidance-of-325-million-345-million-and-reports-355-million-cash-position", "date": "2026-11-02" }, { "title": "CRMD Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low On DaVita's Warning Of Sharp 2027 DefenCath Reimbursement Drop", "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/crmd-stock-hits-fresh-52-week-low-on-da-vita-s-warning-of-sharp-2027-defen-cath-reimbursement-drop/cZULPb7R9cE", "date": null }, { "title": "HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. /DE/ - Form 8-K - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818033/000119312526452672/hrtx-ex99_1.htm", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $54.5 million, down from $104.3 million a year earlier; net loss was $14.7 million, or $(0.19) per share.", "source": "CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 DefenCath net revenue was $17.2 million, including a $5.0 million favourable change in estimate for sales allowances.", "source": "CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $3.1 million versus $71.9 million a year earlier; cash and short-term investments were $355.2 million at 2026-09-30.", "source": "CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Full-year 2026 revenue guidance held at $325–345 million, adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $130–140 million, and earlier 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance suspended until early 2027.", "source": "CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "The CMS final 2027 end-stage renal disease rule set the DefenCath post-TDAPA add-on at $8.32 per session for the first quarter of 2027, against $2.37 per session in the second half of 2026.", "source": "CorMedix press release, 2026-11-02", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "Heron asset purchase: $145 million cash plus 14,583,333 CorMedix shares and up to $55 million tied to 2028 ZYNRELEF sales; closing expected in the first quarter of 2027.", "source": "CorMedix 8-K and Heron Therapeutics 8-K", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "CorMedix shares fell nearly 26% after DaVita's chief financial officer said the DefenCath add-on would fall sharply from the first to the second quarter of 2027.", "source": "Stocktwits, 2026-10-30", "as_of": "2026-10-30" }, { "claim": "Management said enrollment in the DefenCath Phase 3 study in total parenteral nutrition patients continues to track meaningfully behind plan.", "source": "CorMedix third-quarter 2026 earnings call", "as_of": "2026-11-12" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Healthcare", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 54.5, "yoy_pct": -47.7 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "value_musd": 101.9, "yoy_pct": 156.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-14", "value_musd": 127.4, "yoy_pct": 226.1 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-05", "value_musd": 128.6, "yoy_pct": 312.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-12", "value_musd": 104.3, "yoy_pct": 810.2 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "value_musd": 39.7, "yoy_pct": 4829.4 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 55 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": 75.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-14", "pct": 82.5 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-05", "pct": 83.4 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 89.3 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": 95.3 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": -12.1 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": 42.1 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-14", "pct": 50 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-05", "pct": 46 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 49.2 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": 49.2 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": -16.4 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": -14.7, "four_quarters_musd": 63.9 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 312.8 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 4.9 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 307.9 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -9 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 355.1 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-05", "value_musd": 0.3, "composition": "convertible debt plus notes" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 148.2 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 76.7 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 43.1 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 461.7 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 370.6 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 222.4 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 0.5 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 1.4 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 5.8 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 0.8 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 83.1 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 18.44, "days_to_cover": 12.7, "change_pct": -4.9 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 2300155.99, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nCorMedix's main drug, the dialysis catheter-lock solution DefenCath, has lost most of its Medicare premium, and the company will not give a 2027 DefenCath revenue figure until early 2027. The rating is Low: the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A separate Medicare Advantage payment for DefenCath, which management hopes to report before the end of 2026, is the next event that could prove that view wrong.\n\nThe third-quarter report on 2026-11-12 showed the size of the reset. Total revenue was $54.5 million against $104.3 million a year earlier, and DefenCath net revenue was $17.2 million, including a one-time $5.0 million favourable change in sales allowances (company 8-K). On the earnings call the chief executive said \"tentatively, yes\" when asked whether about $12 million a quarter is the right DefenCath level for the fourth quarter, with \"a little bit of a notch up.\"\n\nThe company held full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $325–345 million and suspended its earlier 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance, citing the new quarterly method the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) uses to set the drug's add-on payment. Updated guidance is due in early 2027.\n\nThe market's reading of the report was negative. The shares closed at $4.84 on 2026-11-12, the results day, down from $5.30 the session before, a new 52-week closing low and 62.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $13.02 set on 2025-12-30. With $355.2 million of cash and short-term investments on 2026-09-30, the price treats DefenCath as a business near its reduced post-premium run rate and gives little credit to the pending Heron Therapeutics purchase.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Third-quarter revenue beat the estimate.** Revenue of $54.5 million topped the $53.2 million analyst estimate reported in company news on 2026-11-12, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $325–345 million was reaffirmed on 2026-11-02 and again on 2026-11-12.\n- **First-quarter 2027 Medicare add-on rises.** The CMS final 2027 end-stage renal disease payment rule set the post-premium DefenCath add-on at $8.32 per dialysis session for the first quarter of 2027, against $2.37 per session in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 (company release, 2026-11-02).\n- **Cash cushion and lower costs.** Cash and short-term investments stood at $355.2 million on 2026-09-30. Guidance for 2026 cash operating expenses was cut to $140–145 million from $145–155 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $130–140 million (8-K, 2026-11-12).\n- **Heron deal broadens the hospital portfolio.** The Heron Therapeutics asset purchase signed on 2026-11-09 brings four hospital products, including ZYNRELEF and APONVIE, which CorMedix expects to add $125–150 million of 2027 revenue (8-K, 2026-11-12).\n- **REZZAYO filing under priority review.** The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted the supplemental application for REZZAYO in antifungal prophylaxis on 2026-10-19 with priority review and a target action date in the first quarter of 2027 (8-K, 2026-11-12).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **DefenCath revenue has collapsed.** DefenCath net revenue fell to $17.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, from $66.1 million in the second quarter, after its temporary Medicare add-on (Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment, TDAPA) ended on 2026-07-01 (company 8-Ks).\n- **Largest customer flagged lower 2027 payments.** DaVita's chief financial officer said on its third-quarter call that the DefenCath add-on would fall sharply from the first to the second quarter of 2027, and CorMedix shares fell nearly 26% in the 2026-10-30 session (Stocktwits). CMS now resets the add-on every quarter, so revenue visibility runs one quarter at a time.\n- **Profit has largely disappeared.** Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $3.1 million against $71.9 million a year earlier, and the net loss of $(0.19) per share missed the $(0.10) estimate (company news, 2026-11-12).\n- **Deal adds shares and debt.** The Heron purchase pays $145 million in cash plus 14,583,333 new CorMedix shares, with up to $55 million more tied to 2028 ZYNRELEF sales (8-K, 2026-11-09), and CorMedix expects to draw $75 million of a term loan of up to $150 million at closing (8-K, 2026-11-12).\n- **DefenCath expansion trial is behind.** Management said on 2026-11-12 that enrollment in the Phase 3 study in patients on total parenteral nutrition (TPN) \"continues to track meaningfully behind\" plan, with a decision on alternatives expected before the next quarterly call.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $4.84 on 2026-11-12, the 52-week closing low, after trading between $5.23 and $5.47 from 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-11. The results day broke the shares below that range. The 3-month change is −35.8%, measured from the $7.54 close on 2026-08-14.\n\nThe last close sits far under both the 50-day moving average of $7.25 and the 200-day moving average of $7.58, as of 2026-11-12, and the 50-day average is below the 200-day. A return to the 200-day average would take a rise of more than half from the 2026-11-12 close.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings from August and September 2026 show tax withholding on vested shares at $8.30 on 2026-08-29 by the chief financial officer, chief operating officer and chief legal officer, and a 48,909-share option exercise by director Janet Dillione on 2026-09-18. They show no open-market buying.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Update on separate Medicare Advantage payment for DefenCath, which management hopes to give before the end of 2026. A signed agreement with a top plan would add DefenCath revenue outside the shrinking fee-for-service add-on and would count against the lag call.\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.):** Heron Therapeutics stockholder vote and closing of the asset purchase, expected in the first quarter of 2027. Closing brings $125–150 million of expected 2027 revenue; a failed vote or delay leaves CorMedix more dependent on DefenCath.\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.):** FDA action on the REZZAYO prophylaxis supplemental application under priority review, target date in the first quarter of 2027. Approval would open a new indication for promotion from the second half of 2027 and add a second growth product beyond DefenCath.\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report with new 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance, expected in early 2027. Sets the first fixed revenue level for DefenCath under quarterly add-on resets and shows whether the roughly $12 million quarterly run rate holds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $7.60, just over the 200-day moving average of $7.58 as of 2026-11-12, which would show the shares regaining their longer trend and leading the index; or a signed separate Medicare Advantage payment agreement for DefenCath with a top plan.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nCorMedix trades on dialysis reimbursement news more than on biotech sector moves. The largest single-day move of the past three months, the 2026-10-30 session, came from a customer's earnings call, so DaVita, Fresenius and CMS publication of each quarter's add-on rate are the main outside drivers. The pending Heron Therapeutics purchase ties the shares to Heron's stockholder vote and to the sales trend of Heron's hospital products until the deal closes, expected in the first quarter of 2027.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:52:35+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }