{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "DE",
  "name": "Deere & Company",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DE/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DE.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Deere & Company is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its shares already price in a 29% earnings rebound for fiscal 2027; the 25 November 2026 fourth-quarter report and first 2027 outlook show whether the company's guide supports it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $720, over the 2026-09-23 52-week high, which would show the shares leading; or a fiscal 2027 outlook on 2026-11-25 implying earnings per share above the $23.40 consensus.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-25",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Deere's fiscal year ends in late October or early November, so fiscal 2027 runs from about November 2026 to October 2027.",
    "Deere consolidates its Financial Services arm, so reported results include lending income that depends on interest rates and used-equipment values."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "DEERE & CO - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000110465926098904/de-20260820xex99d1.htm",
      "date": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "title": "Deere & Company's Earnings: What to Expect",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/deere-company-earnings-expect-120336432.html",
      "date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "JPMorgan raises Deere stock price target on production outlook",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jpmorgan-raises-deere-stock-price-target-on-production-outlook-93CH-4871846",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Deere to close 2 Iowa plants in restructuring",
      "url": "https://www.farmprogress.com/farming-equipment/deere-to-close-2-iowa-plants-in-restructuring",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Zacks",
      "url": "https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2977708/de-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-on-construction-turf-strength",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net income was $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per share, up from $1.289 billion, or $4.75 per share, a year earlier; total net sales and revenues rose 5% to $12.608 billion.",
      "source": "Deere 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-20",
      "as_of": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Deere raised its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to $4.75–5.00 billion and said 2026 will mark the bottom of the current ag equipment cycle.",
      "source": "Deere 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-20",
      "as_of": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Production and Precision Agriculture sales fell 6% to $3.998 billion in the third quarter; the fiscal 2026 segment outlook is sales down about 10%.",
      "source": "Deere 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-20",
      "as_of": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction and Forestry sales rose 18% to $3.618 billion and operating profit rose 84% to $436 million in the third quarter.",
      "source": "Deere 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-20",
      "as_of": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Consensus fiscal 2027 earnings per share is $23.40, up 29.2%; the consensus price target is $691.91 across 23 analysts, nine of them at Hold.",
      "source": "Barchart earnings preview, 2026-10-29",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Deere will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, sites, moving windrower production to Des Moines Works by the end of fiscal 2027.",
      "source": "Deere announcement reported by Farm Progress, 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Ryan Campbell, president of Worldwide Construction and Forestry and Power Systems, sold 23,260 shares at an average $651.18 on 2026-08-21 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-08-25",
      "as_of": "2026-08-21"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-02",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-02",
              "filed": "2026-08-27",
              "value_musd": 12608,
              "yoy_pct": 4.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-03",
              "filed": "2026-05-28",
              "value_musd": 13369,
              "yoy_pct": 4.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-02-01",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "value_musd": 9611,
              "yoy_pct": 13
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-02",
              "filed": "2025-12-18",
              "value_musd": 12394,
              "yoy_pct": 11.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-27",
              "filed": "2026-08-27",
              "value_musd": 12018,
              "yoy_pct": -8.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-27",
              "filed": "2026-05-28",
              "value_musd": 12763,
              "yoy_pct": -16.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-02",
              "filed": "2026-08-27",
              "pct": 14.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-03",
              "filed": "2026-05-28",
              "pct": 17.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-02-01",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "pct": 8.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-02",
              "filed": "2025-12-18",
              "pct": 11.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-27",
              "filed": "2026-08-27",
              "pct": 13.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-27",
              "filed": "2026-05-28",
              "pct": 18.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 1882
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-02",
          "value_musd": 1379,
          "four_quarters_musd": 4873
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "first_end": "2025-11-02",
          "value_musd": 7245
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "first_end": "2025-11-02",
          "value_musd": 1224
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "first_end": "2025-11-02",
          "value_musd": 6021
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "base_end": "2025-07-27",
          "pct": -0.3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 8928
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 891,
          "yoy_pct": 1.9
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 1871,
          "yoy_pct": 2.6
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 7811
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-02",
          "filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 27990
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-27",
          "value_musd": 181603.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-27",
          "multiple": 37.3
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-27",
          "multiple": 6.5
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-27",
          "pct": 3.3
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-11-13",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.94,
      "days_to_cover": 4.2,
      "change_pct": -9.1
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-14",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-17",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 23436012.24,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-15",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 55907549.36,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nDeere & Company is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The share price already reflects a farm-equipment recovery in fiscal 2027, and the report on 2026-11-25 must deliver a first outlook that meets it. Analysts' consensus calls for fiscal 2027 earnings per share of $23.40, up 29.2% from a year earlier (Barchart, 2026-10-29). The shares closed at $678.79 on 2026-11-12, close to the $691.91 consensus target in the same report.\n\nThe business is mixed. Construction and small equipment are growing. Large farm machinery, Deere's biggest segment, is still shrinking. Chief executive John May said on 2026-08-20 that 2026 \"will mark the bottom of the current ag equipment cycle.\" Analyst estimates already count on that recovery, and the outlook on 2026-11-25 will show whether the company's own numbers support it. The rating is Low because the shares already price in a full recovery, and the outlook will more likely confirm the estimates than raise them.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Third quarter beat and a higher floor.** Net income for the quarter ended 2026-08-02 was $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per share, up from $4.75 a year earlier, and the company raised the low end of its fiscal 2026 net income guide to $4.75 billion with the top at $5.00 billion (company 8-K, 2026-08-20). Zacks put the consensus for the quarter at $4.79 per share.\n- **Construction is growing fast.** Construction and Forestry sales rose 18% to $3.618 billion in the third quarter and operating profit rose 84% to $436 million. Deere expects the segment's fiscal 2026 sales to rise about 20% (8-K, 2026-08-20).\n- **Small equipment is ahead of large.** Small Agriculture and Turf sales rose 12% to $3.383 billion, with a margin of 18.4% against 16.0% a year earlier (8-K, 2026-08-20).\n- **Early 2027 orders were firm.** After the August report, Oppenheimer raised its target to $685 and pointed to stronger-than-expected early bookings for 2027 seasonal equipment (Investing.com).\n- **Fewer, cheaper factories.** On 2026-11-04 Deere announced it will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, sites, moving windrower production to Des Moines Works by the end of fiscal 2027 and round balers to Ankeny by the end of fiscal 2028 (Farm Progress).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Large farm machinery still shrinking.** Production and Precision Agriculture sales fell 6% to $3.998 billion in the third quarter and operating profit fell 9%. Deere expects the segment's fiscal 2026 sales to fall about 10% (8-K, 2026-08-20).\n- **Weak demand outside North America.** Deere's 2026-08-20 outlook has U.S. and Canada large-tractor and combine demand down 15–20% and South America down 15–20%. JPMorgan, which kept a Neutral rating and a $585 target after the report, flagged weak demand signals in Brazil and Europe (Investing.com).\n- **Annual earnings still falling.** Net income for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 was $3.808 billion, down from $3.962 billion a year earlier (8-K, 2026-08-20). The consensus calls for fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $18.11, down 2.1% (Barchart, 2026-10-29).\n- **A high bar for 2027.** The $23.40 consensus for fiscal 2027 earnings per share assumes the recovery shows up next year (Barchart, 2026-10-29). Of 23 analysts in that count, nine rate the shares Hold.\n- **An executive sold shares.** Ryan Campbell, president of Worldwide Construction and Forestry and Power Systems, exercised options and sold 23,260 shares on 2026-08-21, 7,839 on 2026-08-24 and 4,860 on 2026-08-31 at about $651–654 a share. The sales were under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4 filings).\n- **Labour friction.** IG Metall held warning strikes at the Kaiserslautern, Germany, plant in early November 2026. Farm Progress reported that UAW members rejected a Deere offer in an August vote.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $678.79 on 2026-11-12, down from $691.75 the day before and 5.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $721.22 set on 2026-09-23. The 52-week closing low was $462.86 on 2025-12-09.\n\nThe last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $668.22 and the 200-day moving average of $609.62, both as of 2026-11-12. On adjusted daily closes the shares gained 11.8% over three months, from a 2026-08-14 reference close shortly before the third-quarter report. Barchart counted a 36.8% gain over the 52 weeks to late October 2026, against 12.4% for the S&P 500.\n\nThe shares have traded between $663.31 (2026-11-05) and $691.75 (2026-11-11) in the sessions since the restructuring announcement. The September high is the level a stronger fiscal 2027 outlook would need to clear.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-25:** Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results and first fiscal 2027 outlook, before the market opens. The first net income guide for fiscal 2027 shows whether management's numbers support the $23.40 consensus for earnings per share and the expected recovery in large farm machinery.\n- **~2027-02-19 (est.):** First-quarter fiscal 2027 results. The first quarter of the new year shows whether large-agriculture orders and sales have turned up in North America and whether Brazil and Europe are still weak.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $720, over the 2026-09-23 52-week high, which would show the shares leading; or a fiscal 2027 outlook on 2026-11-25 implying earnings per share above the $23.40 consensus.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nDeere trades as the bellwether of the farm-equipment cycle. It tends to move with CNH Industrial and AGCO on news about farm incomes, crop prices and orders for large machinery. Its construction business, which grew 18% in the third quarter, links it to Caterpillar and North American construction demand. Financial Services earned $219 million in the third quarter (8-K, 2026-08-20), so dealer and customer financing also ties results to interest rates and used-equipment values. Restructuring news from Iowa and union bargaining in Germany and the United States affect costs, with little bearing on demand.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:48:28+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}