{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "DGXX",
  "name": "Digi Power X Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGXX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGXX.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Digi Power X's AI-infrastructure pivot hinges on bringing Phase 1 of its Alabama colocation campus into service in December 2026; that delivery and the mid-November quarterly report decide whether its $1.1 billion contract becomes revenue.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $3.42, the 2026-09-01 close, which would erase the September recovery; separately, a management delay of Phase 1 ready-for-service beyond December 2026 breaks the delivery case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "pick": {
    "id": "P-2026-10-01-DGXX",
    "conviction": "MEDIUM",
    "status": "closed",
    "opened": "2026-10-01",
    "open_close": 3.97,
    "kill_level": 3.42,
    "kill_basis": "weekly",
    "horizon_end": "2026-12-31",
    "last_date": "2026-10-02",
    "last_close": 3.84,
    "return_pct": -3.27,
    "spy_return_pct": 0.74,
    "excess_pp": -4.01,
    "kill_distance_pct": null,
    "closed": "2026-10-02",
    "close_reason": "withdrawn",
    "outcome": "trailed",
    "scoreboard": "https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/"
  },
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "gpu-cloud-neoclouds",
    "bitcoin-miners"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "The Nasdaq-listed security is Digi Power X's subordinate voting shares, a separate class from any multiple-voting shares.",
    "The company has an at-the-market share offering program with $175 million of capacity (expanded 2026-05-08), so new shares can be issued at any time.",
    "The company was renamed Digi Power X Inc. In March 2025; older filings and news refer to it under its prior name and ticker."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nDigi Power X's case rests on one delivery: Phase 1 of its Alabama artificial-intelligence (AI) colocation campus entering service in December 2026, which management set as the ready-for-service target in its [2026-07-07 operations update](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DGXX/digi-power-x-provides-operations-and-financial-oxx1j88dkyf1.html). That date, and the third-quarter report expected in mid-November, decide whether a $1.1 billion, 10-year contract starts turning into revenue. Until then the shares trade on construction progress and funding, and the evidence leans slightly against them beating the S&P 500 over the next three months.\n\nThe narrative is maturing: the pivot from bitcoin mining to AI hosting has been public since the 2026-05-05 contract signing, and the shares slipped from a $4.22 close on 2026-09-28 to $3.97 on 2026-10-01 even as Jones Trading initiated coverage on 2026-09-28 with an $8.00 target, according to [StreetInsider](https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst%2BComments/Jones%2BTrading%2BStarts%2BDigi%2BPower%2BX%2BInc%2B%28DGXX%29%2Bat%2BBuy/27109015.html). Fresh coverage did not bring fresh buying in those three sessions.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **A large contract anchors the campus.** The company signed a 10-year, $1.1 billion AI colocation agreement for 40 megawatts (MW) on 2026-05-05, per the 2026-07-07 update. Management sizes that one agreement at $80–100 million of annualized revenue once running.\n- **AI revenue has already started.** The 2026-08-14 second-quarter release reported about $1.1 million of graphics processing unit (GPU) rental revenue from roughly five weeks of operation. The NeoCloudz GPU-as-a-Service platform has run workloads without interruption since the second quarter, per the 2026-07-07 update.\n- Cash stood at $142.4 million on 2026-06-30, per the 2026-08-14 release.\n- **Management targets a much larger revenue base.** The 2026-07-07 update set a fiscal 2027 annualized run-rate target of $250–300 million, against second-quarter 2026 revenue of about $6.6 million.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Losses are still wide.** Second-quarter 2026 revenue was about $6.6 million against a net loss of about $14.4 million, per the 2026-08-14 release.\n- **Construction spending meets an open share-issuance program.** Year-to-date Alabama capital spending reached $95 million by 2026-07-03, and the at-the-market offering capacity was raised to $175 million on 2026-05-08. Shares can be issued into any rally, which caps rebounds.\n- **Contracted value is not recognized revenue.** The $1.1 billion figure spans ten years and depends on the campus entering service; a December slip would push that revenue into 2027.\n- **Analyst views are split.** MarketBeat's 2026-10-01 summary lists two Buy ratings and one Sell (Weiss Ratings, reiterated 2026-07-17), with a $5.00 consensus target.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $3.97 on 2026-10-01, 53.1% below the $8.46 52-week high and 16.2% lower over three months. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 53.7 sits in neutral territory, with no sign of an overheated run.\n\nThe 2026-09-01 close of $3.42 marks the low end of the September recovery and is the reference level for the case; a weekly close below it would erase the month's gains. The $4.22 close on 2026-09-28, the day of the Jones Trading initiation, is the nearest overhead reference.\n\nCrowding evidence is thin. No earnings date falls inside the next 30 days, the three-month trend is down, and the main observable pressure is supply: the $175 million share-issuance program.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-11-13 (est.), outside the window:** Third-quarter 2026 results; the second-quarter report came on 2026-08-14. The case turns on GPU revenue growth and any change to the Phase 1 date.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **~2026-10-09 (est.):** Possible third-quarter operations update, following the precedent of the 2026-07-07 update issued days after the second quarter closed. It would show whether Phase 1 remains on its December schedule and how much cash remains after construction spending. *(passed 3d ago)*\n- **December 2026, outside the window:** Phase 1 ready-for-service target, per the 2026-07-07 update. This is the event that decides the case. *(passed 97d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe case breaks if management moves Phase 1 beyond December 2026, if the 40 MW customer contract is amended or delayed, or if heavy share issuance funds construction at prices near the current $3.97 close. On price, a weekly close below $3.42, the 2026-09-01 close, ends the recovery reading.\n\nThe reading would improve if a third-quarter update confirms the December date with cash covering the remaining Phase 1 spend, or if the shares recover above the $4.22 close of 2026-09-28 on company news.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nDigi Power X still earns most of its revenue from bitcoin mining and energy sales, judging by the second quarter's $6.6 million total against $1.1 million of GPU revenue, so the shares remain exposed to the bitcoin price. The AI-hosting story ties them to other former miners converting sites to AI colocation, and sentiment toward that group, including any pullback in hyperscaler or AI-lab capital spending, is likely to move the shares alongside company-specific news.",
  "first_seen": "2026-09-28",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-10-02T03:00:38+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-10-02",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}