{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ERAS",
  "name": "Erasca, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERAS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERAS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Funded pan-RAS story with part of its calendar restored: the 2026-08-11 Q2 release dates ERAS-4001 BOREALIS-1 preliminary Phase 1 data to H2 2026, ahead of the H1 2027 ERAS-0015 cut. But the 2026-08-21 close of $17.63 sits on the $17.50 July deal price while five sell-side target raises cluster at $20–$22, and the RevMed patent claim remains unadjudicated.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $16 (loses the 2026-06-26 recovery shelf and leaves the $17.50 July offering price overhead); secondarily, the guided H2 2026 ERAS-4001 readout passing 2026-12-31 undelivered, or a RevMed complaint naming ERAS-0015 appearing on a federal docket.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "oncology-immunology",
    "binary-catalyst-biotech"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "No product revenue: valuation is entirely pipeline-discounted, so financing terms and share issuance are recurring inputs to the equity story.",
    "Efficacy figures are UNCONFIRMED response rates from small dose-escalation cohorts (n=7 at the 32 mg dose); confirmation and larger cohorts can move them materially.",
    "Lead asset ERAS-0015 carries an unresolved third-party allegation of infringing U.S. Patent 12,409,225, with no adjudication date disclosed.",
    "The 2026-08-11 Q2 release states runway as sufficient to fund 'Key Upcoming Milestones'; the earlier 'into H2 2028' calendar wording was not repeated.",
    "The April 2026 dataset included a treatment-related Grade-5 pneumonitis death disclosed on the earnings call rather than in the press release."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n- The leg being bought is unchanged in kind since the July reset — a funded, pivotal-bound pan-RAS story — but the 2026-08-11 Q2 report changed one thing that mattered in the prior frame: ERAS-4001 (BOREALIS-1) preliminary Phase 1 monotherapy data is now guided to H2 2026, a company-controlled readout inside the gap that previously ran empty to H1 2027.\n- The balance sheet is no longer the question. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $384.3M at 2026-06-30 (versus $408.5M at 2026-03-31), before the July raise, which the Q2 release put at roughly $632.5M gross\n- What the Q2 release did not do is restate a dated runway. Q1 (2026-05-12) guided \"into H2 2028\"; the 2026-08-11 language says cash inclusive of July net proceeds is sufficient to fund the \"Key Upcoming Milestones\" listed in the release. That is a milestone-linked statement with no calendar attached — a disclosure downgrade in specificity, and an INFERENCE that it removes an anchor investors had been quoting.\n- The narrative is **maturing**, late in that phase and drifting. Five sell-side target actions landed inside five weeks (BofA $18 on 2026-07-14; Morgan Stanley $21 on 2026-07-20; HC Wainwright $22 on 2026-08-12; Guggenheim $21 on 2026-08-13; BofA again to $20 on 2026-08-14) while the shares closed $17.63 on 2026-08-21 — marginally above the $17.50 July deal price and 21.5% under the $22.47 52-week high. Coverage is re-marking upward into a tape that is not following.\n\n## Bull Case\n- (calendar restored) The 2026-08-11 release dates ERAS-4001 preliminary Phase 1 monotherapy data to H2 2026. ERAS-4001 is the second asset and is not the subject of the Revolution Medicines allegation, so a readout there is both a fresh catalyst and IP-independent. The prior frame flagged the absence of exactly this.\n- (efficacy anchor) The 2026-07-13 AURORAS-1 update showed 57% unconfirmed ORR at the 32 mg recommended dose in 2L+ KRAS G12X pancreatic cancer (n=7), with median relative dose intensity 100% at 24 mg and 32 mg, no DLTs at the monotherapy recommended doses and no discontinuations attributed to treatment-related adverse events. April's 62% unconfirmed ORR in 2L+ KRAS G12X NSCLC (2026-04-27) remains the other pillar.\n- (spend is contained relative to the raise) Q2 2026 R&D was $35.9M and G&A $11.7M, for a $44.1M net loss (2026-08-11). Against $384.3M at quarter-end plus July proceeds, the 2027 Phase 3 build is financed ahead of, rather than during, the spend ramp.\n- (buy-rated coverage exists again) HC Wainwright reiterated Buy with a $22 target on 2026-08-12 and Guggenheim reiterated Buy at $21 on 2026-08-13 — the first Buy-side targets in the recent cluster, where July's raises came from Neutral and Equal-Weight houses.\n- (combination path) ERAS-0015 at 16 mg with panitumumab in metastatic colorectal cancer cleared its cohort with no DLTs in 4 evaluable patients, with escalation ongoing at 24 mg (2026-07-13).\n\n## Bear Case\n- (the print missed) Q2 EPS of $(0.14) came in below the $(0.11) consensus (2026-08-11). For a pre-revenue biotech the number itself carries little signal, but it is the only reported figure the tape had to react to since the raise, and the shares are lower on 2026-08-21 ($17.63) than on 2026-08-07 ($18.41).\n- Weighted-average shares in Q2 were 311.3M — the July shares are not yet fully reflected in that average, so the reported per-share loss understates the post-deal count. The deal price now sits directly beneath the market.\n- (litigation unadjudicated) The RevMed letter received 2026-04-24 and disclosed 2026-04-27 alleges ERAS-0015 infringes U.S. Patent No. 12,409,225 under the doctrine of equivalents, plus trade-secret derivation. As of the 2026-08-11 release, the company's forward-looking language still frames this as \"allegations raised by, or any future litigation initiated by\" RevMed — no filed case has been disclosed, which leaves an undated overhang rather than a scheduled one.\n- (class action clock started) The lead-plaintiff application deadline in the S.D. Cal. Securities case (class period 2025-01-14 to 2026-04-26) passed on 2026-08-10. No appointment order or consolidated amended complaint appears in material reviewed through 2026-08-22. The amended complaint is where any expansion to Securities Act claims tied to the July deal would surface.\n- (H2 2026 is not a date) \"Second half of 2026\" spans through 2026-12-31. Until a conference or press-release date attaches to BOREALIS-1, the restored catalyst is a window, and windows slip without anything in the science being disproved.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- MEASURED: last completed daily close $17.63 (2026-08-21), 21.5% below the $22.47 52-week high, RSI(14) 47.9, three-month price change +56.9%. The comparable reading on 2026-08-07 was a close of $18.41 with a three-month change of +81.9% — the trailing pop is rolling off the window as the July gap ages.\n- Levels that matter: the $17.50 July clearing price the tape is now sitting on; the $16 region that marked the 2026-06-26 recovery shelf; the $20–$22 band where current sell-side targets cluster; $22.47 as the 52-week high set before the April disclosures.\n- Momentum is neutral. RSI(14) at 47.9 is mid-range, consistent with consolidation rather than either distribution or accumulation — the base has not confirmed, and no higher high has been made since the July data.\n- Crowding and positioning observables, stated without a verdict: five sell-side target actions between 2026-07-14 and 2026-08-14, all raises, none an upgrade to Buy from a firm not already there; ~31.4M shares issued into post-data strength on 2026-07-14; a plaintiff-firm press cluster running 2026-07-28 through 2026-08-07 (Hagens Berman, Faruqi, Rosen, Pomerantz, Kahn Swick); no insider transactions appear in the material reviewed for this period, and that absence is recorded as an absence, not as evidence either way.\n- No earnings print is imminent — Q2 is behind (2026-08-11), and the next quarterly report would fall in November on the company's recent cadence.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **No confirmed dated catalyst falls inside 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-21.** That is the material fact about the next month.\n- **~H2 2026 (undated, guided 2026-08-11):** ERAS-4001 (BOREALIS-1) preliminary Phase 1 monotherapy data in KRAS-mutant solid tumors. Could land at any point through 2026-12-31; no conference or date has been named.\n- **~H1 2027 (guided):** next ERAS-0015 monotherapy expansion and combination data; initiation of the registration-enabling 2L+ NSCLC trial. Phase 3 in 1L pancreatic guided to 2027; Phase 3 in RAS-mutant NSCLC to H2 2027–H1 2028.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **Post-2026-08-10 (undated):** lead-plaintiff appointment order and, subsequently, a consolidated amended complaint in the S.D. Cal. Securities action. *(passed 16d ago)*\n- **~2026-11 (est.):** Q3 2026 business update and financial results. Q1 was reported 2026-05-12 and Q2 on 2026-08-11. *(passed 15d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- The structure to watch is the $17.50 shelf the July deal set. Losing it and then the 2026-06-26 recovery zone would mean the post-data marginal buyer has been absorbed and the offering allocation is underwater; a weekly close below $16 marks that break and ends the recovery leg as currently framed.\n- Second condition: the guided H2 2026 ERAS-4001 readout passing 2026-12-31 with no data and no new dated window. That returns the name to the catalyst vacuum described in prior coverage and would date a flip to saturated.\n- Third: a RevMed complaint naming ERAS-0015 appearing on a federal docket, or a preliminary-injunction motion. That converts an undated overhang into a scheduled proceeding with discovery risk attached to the lead asset.\n- What would strengthen the read instead: a named date or conference for BOREALIS-1 data, a restated calendar runway replacing the milestone-linked language of 2026-08-11, or a weekly close above $22.47 that clears the pre-April high and takes the deal price out of the conversation.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is the direct read-across on both axes: RMC-6236 clinical output sets the bar ERAS-0015 is measured against, and RevMed is the party asserting U.S. Patent 12,409,225. News from that name can move ERAS in either direction for reasons unrelated to Erasca's own data.\n- The name trades as an unprofitable, pre-revenue biotech — sensitive to XBI-level risk appetite and to rate expectations, with single-asset dispersion on top. Q2 2026 showed $35.9M R&D and $11.7M G&A against no product revenue, so the equity is a discounted-pipeline instrument and re-rates with the sector's discount rate.\n- Pancreatic and KRAS-mutant NSCLC datasets from any pan-RAS or KRAS-selective competitor are cross-readable into the AURORAS-1 numbers, since the comparison being drawn is response rate and tolerability in the same 2L+ populations.\n- The July offering created a large, price-identified holder cohort at $17.50; behaviour around that level is therefore partly a function of that cohort rather than of clinical news flow.",
  "first_seen": "2026-04-19",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-22T08:31:24+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-22",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}