{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "HNGE",
  "name": "Hinge Health, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE.json",
  "status": "HELD",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-31",
  "outcome": "PLAYED_OUT",
  "outcome_date": "2026-06-15",
  "invalidation_fired": false,
  "themes": [
    "managed-care-health-services",
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Dual-class structure: Class B converts into Class A before insider open-market sales, so a Form 4 shows a conversion leg ahead of the sale line.",
    "Rule 10b5-1 plans are active for executives and sponsor-affiliated funds, so Form 4s arrive on a schedule rather than in response to news.",
    "Guided operating margins are non-GAAP; GAAP figures are disclosed separately and ran materially lower before the Q2 2026 crossover.",
    "Float was 45.39M against 77.38M shares outstanding with 13.73% of float short at the last reported update.",
    "Pre-IPO holders retain Class B convertible into Class A and distribute shares in kind to affiliated entities, which is supply sitting above the reported float.",
    "Guided diluted share count of 85-87M sits above shares outstanding, so per-share comparisons drift as PSUs and RSUs settle."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "\n> Reference close for every level below: $89.98, the last completed daily close on 2026-08-24 (split/dividend-adjusted daily bars).\n\n## HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc.\n\n## Current Thesis\n\nThe post-print band has resolved upward. After the 2026-08-20 close of $85.62, the tape closed $88.42 on 2026-08-21 and $89.98 on 2026-08-24 — within 1.7% of the $91.57 closing high set 2026-08-10, which is also the 52-week high. RSI(14) reads 68.0 against a three-month price change of +69.8%.\n\nThe leg an investor is buying has not changed since the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise and its confirmation on 2026-08-04: a digital-MSK operator compounding above 50% while printing GAAP net income and free cash flow, now bolting on a GI franchise for cash. What arrived in the last week is supply rather than operating news. A Form 4 filed 2026-08-21 shows Bessemer Venture Partners X and BVP X Institutional selling 13,527 and 12,699 Class A shares on 2026-08-19 at a weighted average $90.05 — A Form 4 filed 2026-08-24 reports the President selling 33,000 Class A shares on 2026-08-21 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, with 709,646 shares held after. The only 8-K since the print covers an office lease signed 2026-08-18, not a business development.\n\nThe narrative is **saturated**. The dating is unchanged and now longer in the tooth: at least eight firms revised in the 2026-08-05 session (Needham $97, Barclays $100, Wells Fargo $103, Evercore ISI $105, Citizens $107, RBC $110 among them), the last raise landed 2026-08-11 (Truist $112 from $85), a *Mad Money* Lightning Round buy call followed 2026-08-12, and no rating action has been published in the nine sessions through 2026-08-24. The distance from $89.98 to the $106.47 panel mean now closes through price alone, because the estimates that would close it were already reset.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- Q2 2026 revenue $212.817M, +53% YoY, clearing both the self-raised $200–202M floor set 2026-06-09 and the $201.030M consensus; adjusted EPS $0.59 (2026-08-04 release).\n- Guidance raised at both ends on 2026-08-04: FY2026 to $856–860M from $818–824M, non-GAAP income from operations $236–244M, Q3 to $223–225M against a $211.004M estimate.\n- Q2 free cash flow $99.6M, GAAP net income $43.69M, and $476M of cash and equivalents before the Cylinder payment — the $105M cash price is roughly a fifth of that balance (2026-08-04).\n- LTM calculated billings $862M, +52% YoY, across nearly 3,000 clients including more than half the Fortune 100 (2026-08-04); bookings running ahead of recognised revenue.\n\n- Repurchase capacity of $300.0M remained open after the 2026-07-29 board increase, against $196.5M already executed of $496.5M authorised since 2025-11-10.\n- Panel models still trail the company's own frame: Morgan Stanley's 2026-07-13 raise to $108 was built on CY2026 revenue of $821M, below the $856M floor guided three weeks later.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- The revision cycle for this print is spent. Nine sessions have since passed with no rating action and no operating release.\n\n- Executive selling continued at the top of the range — 33,000 Class A shares on 2026-08-21 under a plan, reported in tranches between $84.802 and $88.2536 (Form 4 filed 2026-08-24).\n- The 2026-08-18 lease at 300 Mission Street commits roughly $86M of base rent on about 119,278 rentable square feet through 2037-02-28, with a $17.9M improvement allowance and a one-time early-termination right effective 2035-01-31. A company that crossed into GAAP profitability in Q2 has added an eleven-year fixed obligation.\n- RSI(14) 68.0 and +69.8% over three months into a calendar with no scheduled company disclosure: next earnings sit around 2026-11-03.\n- Float was 45.39M against 77.38M shares outstanding with 13.73% of float short at the last reported update, so both directions travel further than the fundamentals move.\n- Panel dispersion is wide — high $140, low $85 across 16 analysts — and the low target sits beneath the 2026-08-24 close.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\n- Post-print band: floor at the 2026-08-20 close of $85.62, ceiling at the 2026-08-10 closing high of $91.57. The 2026-08-24 close of $89.98 sits in the upper third, -1.7% from the high.\n- Deeper structure: the June leg broke the $62.18 prior all-time high after the 2026-06-09 raise; that shelf is the second line beneath the current band and roughly 30% lower.\n- Crowding observables, stated as observables: RSI(14) 68.0; a retail-facing television buy call dated 2026-08-12; sponsor Form 144 windows opened around 2026-08-19 and running into November; executive 10b5-1 sales arriving on a schedule rather than on news; 13.73% of float short.\n- No earnings inside the next 30 days. The only company-generated event that can move the tape before the Q3 print is a Cylinder completion filing.\n- INFERRED, not measured: with the estimate reset complete and no operating disclosure due, near-term price is set by whether programme supply is absorbed at these levels rather than by new information.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-08-31 (est.)** — Expected completion of the $105M cash acquisition of Cylinder Health. The 2026-08-04 release states Q3 2026; management narrowed it to end-August/early-September on the call.\n- **~2026-09-19 (est.) through ~2026-11-17** — Execution window on the two Bessemer Form 144 notices dated around 2026-08-19; the 2026-08-19 sales are the first tranche and the balance surfaces only in subsequent Form 4s.\n- **2026-09-30** — Outer bound of the stated Q3 2026 closing window for Cylinder Health.\n- **~2026-11-03 (est.)** — Q3 2026 results. Beyond the 30-day window, listed because it is the next scheduled test of the $223–225M Q3 guide and the first checkable Cylinder contribution.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe band is the object. Its floor is dated — the 2026-08-20 close of $85.62 — and it was built entirely by the 2026-08-04 print, with sponsor and executive supply now printing inside it. A weekly close below $85 forfeits that floor and puts the tape back on the June breakout shelf near $62.18 with no earnings event until roughly 2026-11-03 to arrest it.\n\nSecondary conditions, each independently observable: no completion 8-K or press release for Cylinder Health by 2026-09-30, which would mean the transaction missed the window management framed on 2026-08-04 and the FY2026 frame loses its acquired contribution; Form 4s working through the balance of the roughly 250,000 notified Bessemer shares while the 2026-08-10 closing high of $91.57 stays unrecovered; or a Q3 guide revision that strips the $7–8M of Cylinder revenue attributed to 2026.\n\nOn the other side, a weekly close above $91.57 with no accompanying sponsor Form 4 would say the notified supply is being absorbed rather than capping the tape, and would date the end of the distribution phase described above.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- Moves with the digital-health and first-quartile SMID software cohort on multiple, not on MSK fundamentals; the bull targets published between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-11 are anchored to software comparables rather than healthcare-services ones, so a cohort de-rate compresses them without any Hinge-specific news.\n- Enterprise benefits seasonality: client wins for a 1 January launch are contracted during the third-quarter selling season, so the client-count and billings datapoints that matter for 2027 are set before they are disclosed at the Q3 print.\n- With 13.73% of float short against a 45.39M float, the name trades with the squeeze-prone end of the recent-IPO complex on days carrying no company headline.\n- Direct comparables are split between public (Omada Health) and private (Sword Health), so read-across pricing pressure shows up in Hinge's own billings disclosure rather than in a competitor's tape.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-25T03:07:10+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-25",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}