{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "JAKK",
  "name": "JAKKS Pacific, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JAKK/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JAKK.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "JAKKS Pacific's third quarter showed its licensed doll, role-play and costume lines earning more on higher sales, with net sales up 20% and net income up 50%. Holiday sell-through without a new film tie-in, reported in mid-February 2027, settles whether that level holds.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $25.42, the 2026-08-28 close, which would erase the late-summer advance and the third-quarter beat. A fourth-quarter report showing negative holiday sell-through at the two largest accounts would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "pick": {
    "id": "P-2026-10-26-JAKK",
    "conviction": "MEDIUM",
    "status": "open",
    "opened": "2026-10-26",
    "open_close": 32.01,
    "kill_level": 25.42,
    "kill_basis": "daily",
    "horizon_end": "2027-01-27",
    "last_date": "2026-10-26",
    "last_close": 32.01,
    "return_pct": 0,
    "spy_return_pct": 0,
    "excess_pp": 0,
    "kill_distance_pct": 25.924468922108556,
    "closed": null,
    "close_reason": null,
    "outcome": null,
    "scoreboard": "https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/"
  },
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "JAKKS Pacific does not publish numeric quarterly or annual sales or earnings guidance, so outlook reads rely on management commentary and analyst estimates.",
    "Sales are concentrated in the second half of the year and depend on licences from Disney and Sega's Sonic, so studio release timing shifts results year to year."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nJAKKS Pacific's third quarter showed its licensed doll, role-play and costume lines earning more on higher sales. Net sales rose 20% and net income 50% in the quarter. The open question is whether holiday sell-through holds up without a new film tie-in. The shares closed at a 52-week high of $30.52 on 2026-10-23. Retail point-of-sale (POS) data through December, and the fourth-quarter report expected in mid-February 2027, settle whether the third quarter marked a new level or a favourable comparison.\n\nThe company's release dated 2026-10-22 reported net sales of $254.2 million, against $211.2 million a year earlier. Benzinga's tally put the consensus estimate at $2.33 on sales of $226.6 million. The narrative is accelerating: the beat came on 2026-10-22, Maxim Group raised its target to $57 on 2026-10-23, and the shares closed at a new 52-week high the same day.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Disney dolls and role-play drove growth.** Dolls, role-play and dress-up sales rose 29% to $119 million in the third quarter, the company reported on 2026-10-22. On the earnings call, management said Disney Princess and Frozen were running ahead of its expectations.\n- **Profits grew faster than sales.** Operating income rose 27% to $37.4 million and net income 50% to $29.9 million in the quarter. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $44.4 million, 17.5% of net sales (2026-10-22 release).\n- **Cash and inventory look healthier.** Cash including restricted cash was $45.1 million on 2026-09-30, up from $27.8 million a year earlier. Inventory fell to $63.8 million from $71.5 million, and the balance sheet shows no funded debt line.\n- **Holiday POS is tracking up double digits.** On the 2026-10-22 call, management said POS at its two largest accounts was up by double digits.\n- **The 2027 film slate is heavier.** Management cited Sonic the Hedgehog 4 in March 2027, a Simpsons film in September and Frozen 3 in November. It also plans an anime, manga and VTuber line for 2027.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Part of the third-quarter gain was a soft comparison.** Management said the 2025 quarter suffered from delayed planogram sets (retailers' shelf-layout resets) and higher US tariffs. That inflates the 20% growth rate.\n- **No new film support this holiday season.** The company said it backs no new entertainment release in toys for the fourth quarter, so evergreen and private-label lines have to carry it. Management called this a timing issue rather than weaker demand.\n- **Costs and promotions are rising.** On the 2026-10-22 call, management said higher resin and diesel prices are raising product and freight costs. It expects fourth-quarter selling expenses to rise as promotions increase.\n- **International sales fell.** International sales dropped 4% to $45 million in the third quarter, against a 28% rise in North America to $209 million. Year to date, international sales are up 7%.\n- **The company gives no numbers for the outlook.** The 2026-10-22 release offers no numeric sales or earnings guidance. That leaves the fourth-quarter read to retail data and analyst estimates.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $30.52 on 2026-10-23, which is the 52-week high in adjusted daily closes. Investing.com reported a regular-session close of $29.49 on 2026-10-22, before the after-market release, and $29.27 the session before. The shares have gained 15.7% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 71.4. A reading above 70 marks a stretched short-term advance.\n\nYahoo Finance listed a close of $25.42 on 2026-08-28, with a one-year consensus target of $28.50 at the time. That target sits below the current price. Maxim's $57 target, reported 2026-10-23, is the outlier on the high side. A close back under $25.42 would erase the whole advance since late August.\n\nOn crowding, the momentum reading and the new high are what can be observed. Recent news shows no insider-selling headlines or share issuance into the rally.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-10-26 to 2026-11-24.** The company has no scheduled event in this window. The read comes from holiday retail trends and peer toy-maker commentary.\n- **2026-11-27.** The $0.25 quarterly dividend has its record date, which coincides with Black Friday, the first big holiday sales weekend.\n- **2026-12-28.** The dividend is payable.\n- **~2027-02-15, est.** The fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report is expected. It shows whether holiday sell-through and margins held without a film tie-in.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe case breaks if holiday sell-through fades. Signs would be retailers cutting reorders, or management reporting at the fourth-quarter release that POS at its two largest accounts turned negative. Higher promotions plus resin and freight costs pushing fourth-quarter gross margin well below the third quarter's 32.1% would also weaken it. So would a new round of US tariff increases on toys made in China.\n\nOn price, a daily close below $25.42, the 2026-08-28 close, would show the market has handed back the gains from the late-summer run and the third-quarter beat.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares trade with US toy and licensed-consumer names such as Hasbro, Mattel and Funko. They respond to the same tariff headlines and holiday-retail data. The consumer-discretionary rotation group of 10 names went from accelerating on 2026-10-18 to maturing on 2026-10-25. A cooling group makes it harder for this name to keep rising on its own story. A wide sell-off in that group during the holiday quarter would weigh on the shares regardless of company news. The company's results depend on Disney licences (Princess, Frozen) and Sega's Sonic, so studio release timing feeds directly into sales.",
  "first_seen": "2026-10-25",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-10-25T12:03:48+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-10-25",
  "last_update_source": "theme_discovery",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}