{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "MBGL", "name": "Mobility Global Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MBGL/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MBGL.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": { "code": "a7", "n": 7 }, "current_thesis": "Mobility Global, the CARFAX owner spun off from S&P Global, is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because its third-quarter organic growth sped up to 7.6% and a $350–450 million buyback is due to start before the end of 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, shows whether margins hold up under full standalone costs.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $20.51, the premarket price Investing.com reported on 2026-11-12, which would erase the regular-session gain after the third-quarter report; or 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the $750 million low end of guidance.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "m-and-a-special-situations" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in 2026; periods before the third quarter of 2026 are carve-out figures and are not directly comparable with standalone quarters.", "Separation-related systems migration from S&P Global is expected to run through mid-2027, with about $100 million of one-time spin-related costs through 2027." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "Mobility Global Q3 2026 slides: growth accelerates to 7.6%", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/mobility-global-q3-2026-slides-growth-accelerates-to-76-93CH-5022238", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "Mobility Global Raises FY2026 EBITDA Guidance as Q3 Revenue Increases 7.4% to $478 Million", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mobility-global-raises-fy2026-ebitda-131936979.html", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "Mobility Global Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mobility-global-reports-third-quarter-120000470.html", "date": null }, { "title": "Mobility Global Inc. - Form S-4 - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002090312/000110465926126248/mbgl-20260930xs4.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Mobility Global Q2 earnings call highlights", "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/mobility-global-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-08/", "date": "2026-08-08" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $478 million, up 7.4% from $445 million a year earlier and 7.6% organic constant-currency, against 6.4% organic growth in the second quarter.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results and slides", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "CARFAX revenue was $313 million, up 8%; United States CARFAX revenue was $267 million, up 8%, a third straight quarter of faster growth.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results slides", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $750–760 million from $745–760 million; revenue guidance was kept at $1,870–1,885 million.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "The company plans $350–450 million of buybacks through the end of 2027, starting before the end of 2026, under an $800 million authorization approved in October 2026.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter free cash flow was $186 million, up 37%; net leverage was 2.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.4 times at the end of the second quarter.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results slides", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $195 million, up 2%, at a 41% margin against 43% a year earlier; GAAP net income fell 41% to $42 million.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "The 2026 GAAP tax rate guide was raised to about 32% from 28–31%, and cash taxes are expected to be $80–90 million higher because of a separation-related deferred tax liability.", "source": "Mobility Global third-quarter 2026 results slides", "as_of": "2026-11-12" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 478, "yoy_pct": 7.4 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "value_musd": 468, "yoy_pct": 6.6 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 445, "yoy_pct": null }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "value_musd": 439, "yoy_pct": null } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 78 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "pct": 71.4 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 71 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "pct": 69.9 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 19.2 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "pct": 17.5 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": 23.4 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-07", "pct": 21.9 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 66 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 42 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not available" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": 0.4 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 351 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 1981, "composition": "long-term debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": -1630 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 87, "yoy_pct": null }, "backlog": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 87, "yoy_pct": null }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 226 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 9827 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 6864 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 8494 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "not available" }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-11-09", "basis_filed": "2026-11-12", "multiple": 0.7 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.32, "days_to_cover": 2.5, "change_pct": 31.4 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 980550, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nMobility Global is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Two things support the call. Growth at CARFAX sped up in the third quarter of 2026, and a buyback of $350–450 million is due to start before the end of 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, settles it. That report shows whether margins hold up once the full cost of running as a standalone company arrives.\n\nThe company reported on 2026-11-12. Third-quarter revenue was $478 million, up 7.4% from a year earlier and 7.6% on an organic constant-currency basis, against 6.4% organic growth in the second quarter (company results, Investing.com slide summary). Management kept 2026 revenue guidance at $1,870–1,885 million. It raised adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance to $750–760 million, from $745–760 million. The board had approved an $800 million repurchase authorization in October 2026. The company plans to buy back $350–450 million of stock through the end of 2027, starting before the end of 2026.\n\nThe shares rose sharply in the 2026-11-12 session to an adjusted close of $23.13, well above the 50-day average of $19.01. The rating is Medium because the business results and the buyback point the same way. A one-day jump of this size, however, already prices in part of the good news.\n\nWhat the price already reflects: Investing.com put the company's market value at about $5.87 billion on the morning of 2026-11-12, before the session's rise. That compares with raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $750–760 million.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **CARFAX growth is speeding up.** CARFAX revenue was $313 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 8%. United States CARFAX revenue was $267 million, up 8%, the third straight quarter of faster growth (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- **Cash generation funds the buyback.** Free cash flow was $186 million in the quarter, up 37%. Net leverage fell to 2.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA from 2.4 times at the end of the second quarter. Quarter-end cash was $351 million (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- **The buyback starts earlier than signalled.** On the second-quarter call in August 2026, management said buybacks would not begin until early 2027. The 2026-11-12 plan brings the start forward to before the end of 2026, with $350–450 million targeted through 2027 (company results; second-quarter call coverage).\n- **Profit guidance was raised.** The 2026 adjusted EBITDA range moved to $750–760 million from $745–760 million on 2026-11-12. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.40 beat the $0.38 estimate (company results; earnings headlines).\n- **B2B transactional revenue has stabilised.** B2B transactional revenue was flat at $27 million in the third quarter, after a 4% decline in the second quarter (2026-11-12 results slides).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Standalone costs are compressing margins.** The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 41%, against 43% a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA rose only 2%. Management puts standalone public-company costs at about 150 basis points of margin: roughly half lands in 2026 and the full amount in 2027 (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- **GAAP profit fell hard.** Net income fell 41% to $42 million in the third quarter. GAAP earnings per share of $0.14 missed the $0.17 estimate. Higher interest expense and standalone costs drove the drop (2026-11-12 results and earnings headlines).\n- **Taxes and interest weigh on cash.** The company raised its 2026 GAAP tax rate guide to about 32% from 28–31%. It expects cash taxes $80–90 million higher because of a separation-related deferred tax liability. The first cash interest payment, about $60 million, falls in the fourth quarter (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- **Part of the B2B growth will not recur.** B2B subscription revenue rose about 8% to roughly $137 million. A prior-year true-up that will not repeat helped that growth (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- **The fourth quarter is the weakest for margins.** Management expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to be the lowest-margin quarter of the year. It also expects about $50 million of one-time spin-related costs in the second half of 2026 (2026-11-12 results slides).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- The adjusted close on 2026-11-12 was $23.13. The 50-day average of adjusted closes was $19.01 on the same date, so the shares sit about $4 above it after the results-day jump.\n- The shares are up 14.1% over three months to 2026-11-12. Most of that gain came in the single 2026-11-12 session.\n- Before the report, the market had already reacted to the results: Investing.com reported a premarket price of $20.51 on 2026-11-12, up 2.96%. The regular-session gain above that level reflects the buyback timing and the guidance raise.\n- The test now is whether the shares hold the 2026-11-12 gain into the start of the buyback, which the company has scheduled for before the end of 2026.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** First repurchases under the $800 million authorization, which the company says will begin before the end of 2026. This shows whether the planned $350–450 million of buybacks through 2027 starts on the schedule management set on 2026-11-12.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, with the first 2027 guidance. This shows whether 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands within the $750–760 million guide and how much the full 150 basis points of standalone costs weighs on 2027 margins.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $20.51, the premarket price Investing.com reported on 2026-11-12, which would erase the regular-session gain after the third-quarter report; or 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the $750 million low end of guidance.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Full standalone public-company costs in 2027 push margins down more than revenue growth can offset. Confirmed by: 2027 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance below the about 40% margin implied for 2026, given with the fourth-quarter report.\n- CARFAX growth slows as United States used-vehicle retail activity softens. Confirmed by: United States CARFAX revenue growth falling below the 8% reported for the third quarter of 2026 at the fourth-quarter report.\n- B2B growth fades once the non-recurring prior-year true-up drops out. Confirmed by: B2B organic growth below the 5.8% year-to-date rate through the third quarter of 2026, or B2B transactional revenue declining again.\n- Systems migration from S&P Global causes disruption or cost overruns before its mid-2027 target. Confirmed by: An increase in the roughly $100 million estimate of one-time spin-related costs through 2027, or a delay to the mid-2027 completion target.\n- Higher cash taxes and interest leave less cash for repurchases than planned. Confirmed by: Repurchases tracking below the pace needed for $350–450 million through 2027, as reported in quarterly filings.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- CARFAX made up $313 million of $478 million in third-quarter revenue, so the shares mainly follow United States used-vehicle retail activity and dealer subscription spending. CARFAX United States revenue grew 8% in the third quarter of 2026.\n- The B2B segment ($164 million in the third quarter) sells data and marketing tools to carmakers and dealers. It is exposed to automaker marketing budgets. Canada was weak in the third quarter while Europe grew at double digits (2026-11-12 results slides).\n- The company completed its separation from S&P Global in 2026, and the third quarter was its first full standalone quarter. Systems migration from S&P Global is expected to finish by mid-2027 (2026-11-12 results slides). Until then, separation costs and one-off charges make reported figures harder to compare with earlier periods.\n- Net leverage of 2.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and a new interest bill make the shares more sensitive to interest rates than the former parent's reported segment was.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:39:52+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }