{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "MX",
  "name": "Magnachip Semiconductor Corp.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MX.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Magnachip Semiconductor's shares closed at $2.41 on 23 October 2026, far below the $3.42 Navitas paid in September, so the partnership rerating has reversed; the 4 November 2026 Q3 report must show revenue inside the $41.5M–$45.5M guided range.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $2.10, a level under the 2026-10-23 close of $2.41 that would extend the slide after the shares lost Navitas's $3.42 purchase price; Q3 revenue below the $41.5 million guidance floor would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-04",
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "semiconductors-analog"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Magnachip reports revenue from continuing operations; compare quarters on that line, not on total figures that include discontinued businesses.",
    "Analyst coverage is thin: Benzinga counted two rating analysts as of 2026-10-09, so one target change can move the consensus figure."
  ],
  "source_links": [],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nMagnachip Semiconductor's shares closed at $2.41 on 2026-10-23, well below the $3.42 Navitas Semiconductor paid in September, so the partnership rerating has fully reversed. The third-quarter report on 2026-11-04 settles whether revenue holds inside the $41.5 million to $45.5 million guided range.\n\nThe rating stays at the low end of the scale. Adjusted daily closes show the shares down 73.0% from the 52-week high of $8.93 and down 25.4% over three months. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0-to-100 gauge of recent price momentum, stood at 8.1 on 2026-10-23, against 41.0 on 2026-10-12. The partnership narrative is dead as a price driver: the shares closed at $3.89 on 2026-09-29, then lost roughly $1.48 in under four weeks. Only a revenue and margin result can restart it.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **A technology partner put in cash.** On 2026-09-21, Magnachip agreed to sell 1,461,988 shares to Navitas at $3.42 each, raising $5 million. It also licensed Navitas's GeneSiC Trench-Assisted Planar silicon-carbide technology for 1,200-volt to 3,300-volt and higher applications. [Business Wire](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260921532903/en/Magnachip-Announces-Strategic-Investment-by-Navitas-Semiconductor)\n- **New power products reached mass production.** On 2026-10-05, Magnachip launched 15 sixth-generation E6 super-junction MOSFETs (power transistors) for power supplies below 1 kilowatt. All 15 are in mass production. [GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9109260/magnachip-mx-launches-15-new-e6-mosfets-targeting-consumer-electronics-and-computing-power)\n- **Gross margin beat guidance last quarter.** For Q2, reported 2026-07-29, gross margin on continuing operations was 19.3%, above the 17% to 19% guidance. Revenue was $44.7 million. [Q2 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1325702/000119312526323843/mx-ex99_1.htm)\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Guidance points to a smaller quarter.** On 2026-07-29, management guided Q3 continuing-operations revenue to $41.5 million to $45.5 million, with gross margin of 17% to 19%. Management cited packaging constraints, weaker consumer volumes and price pressure on older products. [Q2 results and outlook](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1325702/000119312526323843/mx-ex99_1.htm)\n- **The partner's shares are registered for resale.** On 2026-10-05, Magnachip filed a Form S-3 resale registration covering 1.46 million shares, matching the Navitas purchase. Those shares can be sold in the market. [SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001325702&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=20)\n- **Covering analysts lean negative.** As of 2026-10-09, Benzinga showed a consensus rating of \"Reduce\" from two analysts, one sell and one hold, with a $6.50 consensus target. That target sits far above the 2026-10-23 close of $2.41. [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MX)\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nOn adjusted daily closes, the shares ended at $2.41 on 2026-10-23. That is 73.0% below the 52-week high of $8.93. The close was $2.86 on 2026-10-12 and $3.89 on 2026-09-29, so the slide has continued since the last note.\n\nThe RSI of 8.1 is an extreme reading. It shows near-continuous selling over the prior two weeks. Such readings can precede sharp rebounds or further declines, and the price record alone does not say which.\n\nCrowding evidence points to supply, not enthusiasm. Benzinga's movers lists carried the shares on 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28, the days of heaviest buying, and no such listing appears since. The resale registration adds sellable shares. The earnings date is 11 days after the latest close.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **No other dated company event** falls inside the next 30 days. Any Form 4 or Schedule 13D/G amendment showing Navitas selling would be an unscheduled filing.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-11-04, after the close:** Magnachip reports Q3 2026 results, with a 5:00 p.m. Eastern call. The company announced the date on 2026-10-14. Revenue against the $41.5 million to $45.5 million range, gross margin against 17% to 19%, and Q4 guidance decide the case. *(passed 2d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe case breaks if Q3 continuing-operations revenue lands below $41.5 million or Q4 guidance comes in below the Q3 result. It also breaks on a registered offering of new Magnachip shares, or a filing showing Navitas has cut its stake.\n\nThe case would improve if revenue lands at or above $45.5 million with gross margin above 19% and management gives a product timeline for the silicon-carbide license. The price condition is a daily close below $2.10, a level under the 2026-10-23 close of $2.41.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nMagnachip trades with small-cap analog and power semiconductor names that depend on consumer electronics and PC demand. Navitas is the direct counterparty. Its shares moved with Magnachip's on 2026-09-28 in Benzinga's after-market gainers list. Beyond that, the sample of days with both names moving is too small to estimate how closely the two track each other.",
  "first_seen": "2026-09-29",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-10-26T04:52:49+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-10-26",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}