{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ONON",
  "name": "On Holding AG",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONON/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONON.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "On Holding's 2029 goal of at least CHF 5.6 billion in sales and its first $1 billion buyback have lifted the shares off their 52-week low. The Q3 report, expected around 10 November 2026, will show whether growth holds near the company's guide of about 17% in constant currency.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $30.52, the 2026-09-22 investor-day close, which would erase the gain since the 2029 targets and buyback were announced. Q3 constant-currency growth below the guide of about 17%, or a cut to FY2026 guidance, would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "pick": {
    "id": "P-2026-10-09-ONON",
    "conviction": "MEDIUM",
    "status": "open",
    "opened": "2026-10-09",
    "open_close": 35.09,
    "kill_level": 30.52,
    "kill_basis": "daily",
    "horizon_end": "2027-01-11",
    "last_date": "2026-10-09",
    "last_close": 35.09,
    "return_pct": 0,
    "spy_return_pct": 0,
    "excess_pp": 0,
    "kill_distance_pct": 14.973787680209716,
    "closed": null,
    "close_reason": null,
    "outcome": null,
    "scoreboard": "https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/"
  },
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "On Holding is a Swiss company that reports in Swiss francs, so moves in the franc against the dollar change its dollar-converted sales and earnings.",
    "As a foreign private issuer, On files quarterly results on Form 6-K, and its insiders do not file the SEC Form 4 reports that US companies file.",
    "On has two share classes; the Class B voting shares give the founders and early backers more voting power than their economic stake."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nOn Holding's 2026-09-22 investor day changed how the market reads the stock. The company set a 2029 sales goal of at least CHF 5.6 billion (Swiss francs) and announced its first buyback, $1 billion. That lifted a stock that had been trading near its 52-week low, and four brokers raised their price targets within nine days. The Q3 report, expected around 2026-11-10, will show whether growth holds near the company's guide of about 17% in constant currency (growth with exchange-rate effects stripped out). After the run, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stood at 89.1 on 2026-10-08, which leaves the shares little room for a miss.\n\nThe business is growing fast and making money. In its 2026-08-11 release, On reported Q2 2026 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, up 21.6% in constant currency. Gross margin was 65.4% and net income was CHF 105.0 million. The narrative is accelerating. The investor day, the buyback and the target raises between 2026-09-23 and 2026-10-01 brought new attention to a name that Trading News reported had fallen to a 52-week low of $26.36.\n\nThe weak spot is the Americas. Q2 sales there grew 4.5% as reported and 13.0% in constant currency. In Asia-Pacific they grew 54.7% in constant currency.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Long-range targets include wider margins.** At the 2026-09-22 investor day, On targeted at least CHF 5.6 billion of 2029 net sales, constant-currency growth in the high teens each year from 2026, gross margin of at least 65%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of at least 22%. The Q2 2026 EBITDA margin was 19.8%.\n- **The buyback is backed by net cash.** The $1 billion authorization runs to 2029-12-31. Trading News put it at 9.9% of the $10.1 billion market value at the 2026-09-22 close. It also put cash at CHF 1.21 billion, with no financial debt.\n- **Guidance came in above consensus.** On 2026-09-22, Benzinga reported Q3 sales guidance of $1.176 billion against a $1.150 billion estimate. It reported FY2026 sales guidance of $4.390–4.503 billion against $4.320 billion. In francs, the company's own FY2026 range is CHF 3.47–3.56 billion.\n- **Direct sales and Asia are carrying growth.** Q2 2026 direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rose 34.3% in constant currency, reaching 45.7% of net sales (company release, 2026-08-11).\n- **Brokers raised targets after the investor day.** Needham raised its target to $40 (2026-09-23). Barclays raised to $44 (2026-09-24) and JPMorgan to $44 (2026-10-01). All three kept positive ratings.\n- **The valuation is modest for the growth rate.** At the $30.52 close on 2026-09-22, Trading News calculated enterprise value at 9.9 times 2026 EBITDA.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The shares are overbought after a fast rally.** The 14-day RSI was 89.1 at the $34.04 close on 2026-10-08. The close before the investor day was $27.32 (Trading News), and readings this high often come before pullbacks.\n- **Growth is slowing into Q3.** The Q3 guide of about 17% constant-currency growth is below the 21.6% posted in Q2. It is also below the full-year guide of growth in the low 20s.\n- **Americas and wholesale are soft.** In Q2, Americas sales rose 4.5% as reported and wholesale rose 4.8%. Trading News records a $38.63 close before the 2026-08-11 report and a $31.29 close on the day.\n- **The strong franc cuts reported growth.** Q2 net sales grew 13.5% as reported against 21.6% in constant currency. On also said it is absorbing higher US import tariffs.\n- **Not every analyst is positive.** On 2026-09-24, BMO Capital kept a Market Perform rating with a $33 target, below the 2026-10-08 close.\n- **The sector backdrop is weak.** Benzinga reported Nike at 13-year lows on 2026-09-30, and 30-year Treasury yields above 5.5% on 2026-09-25.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nOn adjusted daily closes, the shares ended at $34.04 on 2026-10-08. That is 32.8% below the 52-week high of $50.63 and 10.2% lower than three months earlier. The rally started at the $27.32 close before the investor day. The shares then closed at $30.52 on 2026-09-22 and have kept rising since.\n\nBelow the price, the levels are $30.52, the investor-day close, and $28.36, which Trading News flags as the level that would close the investor-day price gap. The 52-week low of $26.36 sits under both. Above the price, $38.63 was the close before the August report. The $40–44 targets from Needham, Barclays and JPMorgan sit beyond it.\n\nSigns of crowding are clear. The RSI is far above the usual overbought threshold of 70, and the shares have run hard in under three weeks. The buyback adds a steady buyer once repurchases begin. As a foreign private issuer, On does not file the SEC Form 4 insider reports that US companies file.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **2026-10-09 to 2026-11-08:** No company event is scheduled in this window. Without new information, the price will mostly follow the peer group and interest rates.\n- **~2026-11-10, est.:** Q3 2026 report. Earnings calendars list either 2026-11-10 or 2026-11-11. The report shows whether constant-currency growth meets the guide of about 17%, whether gross margin stays at 65% or above, how much was repurchased, and how much of the up-to-$65 million tariff refund Trading News reported for Q3 has arrived.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nSeveral results in the Q3 report would break the case:\n- constant-currency growth below the guide of about 17%;\n- gross margin below the 65% floor;\n- a further slowdown in Americas or wholesale sales;\n- any cut to the CHF 3.47–3.56 billion FY2026 sales range.\n\nLittle or no repurchase activity in the quarter after the authorization would also weaken it, because the buyback is part of the case. On price, a daily close below $30.52 would undo the investor-day gain and send the shares back toward the $28.36 gap level.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nOn is in the consumer-discretionary rotation group, with VRA, SG, GME, FOSL, JILL, LUXE, SIG and ASO. The group's weekly status slipped from accelerating on 2026-09-13 to maturing from 2026-09-20 through 2026-10-09. A cooling group raises the bar for a single-name case. On's recent move rests on its own news, the investor day and the buyback, so the case can hold while the group cools. It weakens if the group's weakness spreads into athletic footwear.\n\nIn practice, the shares track athletic-footwear peers such as Nike more closely than that group. Benzinga reported Nike at 13-year lows on 2026-09-30. As a growth stock, On is also sensitive to long-term interest rates, and 30-year yields topped 5.5% on 2026-09-25. Because On reports in francs, moves in the franc against the dollar change its dollar-converted results.",
  "first_seen": "2026-10-08",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-10-09T09:20:03+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-10-09",
  "last_update_source": "research_universe",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}