{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "RDAC",
  "name": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDAC/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDAC.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a6",
    "n": 6
  },
  "current_thesis": "Rising Dragon Acquisition, a blank-check company, closed at $11.20 after its HZJL merger ended on 30 October 2026, close to its $10.90 per-share trust value at 30 June 2026 plus monthly deposits since. A new merger agreement or a liquidation notice decides the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $10.90, the per-share trust redemption value reported at 2026-06-30. A filing announcing a liquidation, or a missed monthly extension deposit, would also end the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-15",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "m-and-a-special-situations"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Rising Dragon is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) incorporated as a Cayman Islands exempted company, based in Taiyuan, China. It has no operating business.",
    "Public shareholders can redeem for a pro-rata share of the trust account at a liquidation or at a vote on an extension or merger. The trust value anchors the share price when no deal is pending.",
    "The company's rights trade separately from its ordinary shares under the symbol RDACR.",
    "Redemptions have shrunk the public float, so the shares can move by large percentages on little volume."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002018145/000121390026115158/ea0310535-8k_rising.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. and HZJL Cayman Limited Announce Mutual Termination of Merger Agreement",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rising-dragon-acquisition-corp-hzjl-110000562.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Why Is Penny Stock Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. (RDAC) Up 117% Today? - TipRanks.com",
      "url": "https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-is-penny-stock-rising-dragon-acquisition-corp-rdac-up-117-today",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "app.edgar.tools",
      "url": "https://app.edgar.tools/companies/RDAC",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Boardroom Alpha",
      "url": "https://www.boardroomalpha.com/sec/rdac-def-14a-2026-05-08-0001213900-26-053863",
      "date": "2026-05-08"
    },
    {
      "title": "Rising Dragon stock skyrockets on SPAC extension proposal",
      "url": "https://stockti.com/rising-dragon-stock-skyrockets-on-spac-extension-proposal",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. Announces Closing of $57.5 Million Initial Public Offering",
      "url": "https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/2475953836",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Boardroom Alpha",
      "url": "https://www.boardroomalpha.com/sec/rdac-10-q-2025-11-05-0001213900-25-106634",
      "date": "2025-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Rising Dragon and HZJL Cayman Limited mutually terminated their 2025-01-27 merger agreement effective 2026-10-30, with no termination fee payable by either party.",
      "source": "Rising Dragon Form 8-K and GlobeNewswire release, 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-10-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The company issued two unsecured promissory notes totalling $55,637.41 to fund the trust account and extend its business-combination deadline to 2026-11-15.",
      "source": "Company announcement via fiscal.ai, 2026-10-30",
      "as_of": "2026-10-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "4,201,655 ordinary shares were subject to possible redemption at $10.56 per share, versus 5,750,000 at $10.14 a year earlier.",
      "source": "FY2025 annual report (10-K), via edgar.tools",
      "as_of": "2025-12-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "1,685,982 ordinary shares were subject to possible redemption at $10.90 per share at 2026-06-30, after 2,515,673 shares were redeemed at about $10.83 on 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-03; the trust held $18.37 million. Monthly extension deposits are $0.033 per public share, or $55,637.",
      "source": "Rising Dragon Form 10-Q for the quarter to 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-07",
      "as_of": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Nasdaq notified the company on 2026-08-19 that the market value of its listed securities was below the $35 million minimum under Rule 5550(b)(2); it has until 2027-02-16 to close at or above $35 million for 10 consecutive business days or face a delisting notice.",
      "source": "Rising Dragon Form 8-K, Item 3.01, filed 2026-08-20",
      "as_of": "2026-08-19"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The May 2026 proxy proposed up to 15 one-month extensions of the deadline, to 2027-10-15, with sponsor deposits into the trust for each month.",
      "source": "DEF 14A filed 2026-05-08, via Boardroom Alpha",
      "as_of": "2026-05-08"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The shares rose more than 400% intraday to $21.72 on 2026-04-29, the day after the extension proxy was filed.",
      "source": "Stockti",
      "as_of": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The shares rose 117.5% in premarket trading on the day the merger termination was announced.",
      "source": "TipRanks",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nRising Dragon Acquisition Corp. is a blank-check company with no operating business. Its only merger ended on 2026-10-30, and the shares closed at $11.20 on 2026-11-09, 2.8% above the $10.90 per-share trust value in its latest 10-Q, for 2026-06-30. The case for the shares now depends on a new merger agreement. Without one, a liquidation or redemption pays out roughly the trust value, which monthly deposits and interest have lifted since June toward the current price.\n\nThe mutual termination of the HZJL Cayman Limited agreement, announced 2026-11-03, carried no termination fee for either side, according to the company's 8-K. The company said it will keep looking for a target within the time its articles allow. Its current deadline is 2026-11-15, set by promissory notes totalling $55,637.41 that were issued on 2026-10-30 to fund the trust and extend the deadline.\n\nThe story of a merger with HZJL is dead: the agreement was terminated effective 2026-10-30. Since then the shares have traded on hopes for a new target. TipRanks reported a 117.5% premarket jump on 2026-11-03, the day the termination was announced. The rating is low. The shares trade close to the trust value with a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 91.2, and no new target has been named.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Trust value puts a floor near $10.90.** The 10-Q for the quarter to 2026-06-30 lists 1,685,982 public shares subject to possible redemption at $10.90 each. Monthly extension deposits of $0.033 a share and trust interest have added to that since, so a redemption pays out near or above that figure.\n- **The sponsor keeps paying to extend.** On 2026-10-30, after the merger had already ended, the company issued $55,637.41 of promissory notes to fund the trust and move the deadline to 2026-11-15. A sponsor that funds extensions after a deal collapses is signalling that it intends to find another deal.\n- **Deadline room runs to late 2027.** The May 2026 proxy (DEF 14A filed 2026-05-08) proposed up to 15 monthly extensions, out to 2026-10-15 plus 12 months, i.e. 2027-10-15. Monthly extensions have continued since. That leaves time to sign a new target.\n- **Deal news has moved the shares sharply.** The shares rose more than 400% intraday to $21.72 on 2026-04-29, the day after the extension proxy was filed, according to Stockti. They also jumped on the 2026-11-03 termination news.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Little room above trust value.** The $11.20 close on 2026-11-09 is 2.8% above the $10.90 per-share redemption value at 2026-06-30, before the deposits made since. If the company liquidates, holders receive about the trust value, so the shares have little to gain without a new deal.\n- **The Nasdaq listing is at risk.** Nasdaq notified the company on 2026-08-19 that the market value of its listed securities was below the $35 million minimum (Rule 5550(b)(2)). It must close at or above $35 million for 10 consecutive business days by 2027-02-16 or face a delisting notice (8-K, 2026-08-20).\n- **No target is named.** The 2026-11-03 termination release gives no reason for the break-up and names no replacement. A new target needs due diligence, a signed agreement and a proxy, which takes months.\n- **The rally looks stretched.** Adjusted daily closes show a 76.4% gain over three months to 2026-11-09 and an RSI of 91.2. Both are levels at which past spikes in this stock, including April 2026, have given back much of their gain.\n- **The public float is small and uncertain.** Redemptions have shrunk the share count since the October 2024 initial public offering (IPO) of 5,750,000 units. Holders redeemed 2,515,673 shares on 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-03, leaving 1,685,982 public shares at 2026-06-30 (10-Q). A float this small can produce large moves on little volume in either direction.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe last close was $11.20 on 2026-11-09. That is 45.4% below the 52-week closing high of $20.51, set in the April 2026 spike on the extension proxy. The 14-day RSI of 91.2 is extreme. The three-month gain of 76.4% came mostly from the termination news in early November.\n\nThe level that matters most is the $10.90 per-share trust value reported at 2026-06-30, which monthly deposits have raised since. Above it, the shares carry a premium for an expected new deal. A sustained close below it would mean the market is pricing in a liquidation, or doubting that the full trust will be paid out.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **2026-11-15:** The current business-combination deadline. The sponsor must fund another monthly extension, or the company moves toward liquidation.\n- **~2026-11-16, est.:** The third-quarter 2026 report (Form 10-Q) is due. It should show the trust balance and redeemable share count after the 2026 extension vote. The 2025 third-quarter 10-Q was filed on 2025-11-05.\n- **~2026-12-15, est.:** The next monthly extension date, if the sponsor funds the 2026-11-15 extension.\n- **Unscheduled:** A letter of intent or merger agreement with a new target. This is the event the premium over trust value depends on.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe case breaks on liquidation: any filing in which the company says it will not extend past 2026-11-15, or that it intends to wind up and redeem public shares, caps the shares near the trust value. A 10-Q showing a per-share trust value well below $10.90, or a missed extension deposit, would point the same way. A daily close below $10.90, the last reported per-share trust value, would show the market has dropped the new-deal premium.\n\nA signed agreement with a named target and a credible valuation would strengthen the case. So would a 10-Q showing the trust intact at a per-share value close to the current price.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nRDAC trades on its own trust and deal news, so it has little in common with the operating companies in the M&A and special-situations group (SLN, SGRY, ADT, HELE, SKYA). That group has cooled since early November. The cooling matters less here than the 2026-11-15 deadline and any new-target filing. The shares have no meaningful link to the S&P 500. That cuts both ways for relative performance: a broad market rally does not lift the shares, and a liquidation would leave them lagging the index.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-09",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-10T11:19:30+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-10",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-10",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}