{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ROG",
  "name": "Rogers Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ROG/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ROG.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Rogers Corporation's 2030 plan for $1.5 billion of revenue and $14.00 of adjusted EPS is already reflected in overbought shares. The late-October third-quarter report decides whether the core materials business delivers the guided $233–243 million of sales.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "third-quarter sales below the $233 million guidance low would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-10-27",
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "semiconductors-analog"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Rogers Corporation (NYSE: ROG) is a different company from Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI); Rogers Communications reports on 2026-10-23, and the two companies' earnings dates are often confused.",
    "Management expects data-center revenue to begin only in the second half of 2027, so results before then reflect the core materials business."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nRogers Corporation's 2030 plan for $1.5 billion of revenue and $14.00 of adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is already reflected in overbought shares, and the case for beating the S&P 500 over the next three months is weaker than even. The third-quarter report, expected in late October, decides it: the core materials business has to deliver the guided $233–243 million of sales, because data-center revenue does not start until the second half of 2027.\n\nThe shares closed at $156.60 on 2026-10-06, 6.3% below the 52-week high of $167.09 and up 12.6% over three months, on adjusted daily closes. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 80.6, a reading usually taken as overbought. That close sits 2.4% above the $152.99 close of the 2026-09-30 investor day.\n\nThe narrative is maturing: the long-range targets are now well known, no company news has followed the 2026-10-01 target raises from B. Riley and Freedom Capital Markets, and the shares have slipped from $160.00 on 2026-10-02 to $156.60 on 2026-10-06. As of 2026-10-07 the company had not announced its third-quarter reporting date.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Guidance points to a stronger third quarter.** The company guided third-quarter sales to $233–243 million, gross margin to 33.2%–34.2%, adjusted EPS to $1.10–1.30 and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to $44–50 million (8-K, 2026-07-28). Zacks put consensus at $1.20 of EPS and $238 million of revenue on 2026-10-01, up 33.3% and 10.2% year on year.\n- **Long-range targets give earnings a path.** The 2026-09-30 investor day set a 2028 checkpoint of $1.0–1.1 billion of revenue and $5.50–6.50 of adjusted EPS, rising to $1.5 billion, a 26% adjusted EBITDA margin and $14.00 of adjusted EPS by 2030 (company release).\n- **Management ties new revenue to customer programs.** Chief Executive Ali El-Haj described the more than $450 million of new-market 2030 sales as \"actual programs with customers\" and expects first data-center design wins within about two quarters, according to TIKR's summary of the 2026-09-30 event.\n- **Analysts lifted targets after the event.** B. Riley raised its target to $225 and Freedom Capital Markets to $185 on 2026-10-01, both with Buy ratings (Benzinga).\n- **Cash generation improved.** Second-quarter free cash flow was $18.3 million against $5.6 million a year earlier, with $181.4 million of cash and equivalents plus $30.0 million of short-term investments (8-K, 2026-07-28).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The headline growth is years away.** Management expects data-center revenue to begin in the second half of 2027 (TIKR, 2026-09-30). Until then, results rest on industrial, electric-vehicle and electronics markets that have been cyclical.\n- **The 2030 plan needs both halves to work.** Roughly $250 million of the gap to 2030 revenue is meant to come from mid-single-digit core growth and more than $450 million from newer products in data centers, battery systems and electromagnetic-interference shielding (TIKR; company release, 2026-09-30).\n- **Estimates have not moved with the price.** Zacks reported on 2026-10-01 that the third-quarter consensus EPS estimate was unchanged over the prior 30 days and rated the shares #3 (Hold). The rally after investor day rests on 2028–2030 targets, while the near-term numbers stayed put.\n- **The price is stretched into a report.** An RSI of 80.6 on 2026-10-06, a 12.6% three-month gain and a report expected within about three weeks leave little room for a result that only meets the guidance midpoint.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe reference close is $156.60 on 2026-10-06. The 52-week high is $167.09. The investor-day close of $152.99 on 2026-09-30, after a 10.73% one-day gain (TIKR), is the nearest marked level below.\n\nSince 2026-10-02 the shares have drifted lower on three of the last sessions, from $160.00 to $159.10 on 2026-10-05 and $156.60 on 2026-10-06. A move above $167.09 would put them at a new 52-week high ahead of the report.\n\nThe crowding visible is in momentum and timing: an overbought RSI and an earnings date inside the coming month. SEC filings show no recent share issuance.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-10-27 (est.) — Third-quarter 2026 report.** The company had not announced the date as of 2026-10-07; the estimate follows the 2026-07-28 timing of the second-quarter report, and MarketBeat's own unconfirmed estimate is 2026-11-04. The report shows whether sales land within $233–243 million and adjusted EPS within $1.10–1.30, and whether fourth-quarter guidance extends the recovery.\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.) — Data-center design-win window.** About two quarters after the 2026-09-30 investor day, this is when management expects first data-center design wins (TIKR). A named program would be the first hard evidence for the new-market target.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe case breaks on the downside if third-quarter sales come in below the $233 million guidance low, or if fourth-quarter guidance falls below third-quarter levels. Either would show the core recovery stalling well before new-market revenue arrives. A daily close below $153 would erase every gain since the investor day.\n\nThe read would turn more constructive on three things: third-quarter sales above the $243 million guidance high, upward revisions to near-term EPS estimates after the report, and a named data-center customer program announced ahead of the two-quarter window. Any one of these would give the share price support from current earnings as well as from 2030 targets.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nRogers sells engineered circuit materials, ceramic substrates and elastomers into electric-vehicle, industrial and electronics markets, so the shares tend to move with small-cap semiconductor and electronic-component names such as MaxLinear, Semtech and CEVA. The investor-day jump on 2026-09-30 came on a day the Nasdaq rose more than 100 points (Benzinga). A broad pullback in AI-linked hardware stocks would weigh on the data-center part of the story even though that revenue is still more than a year out. The company's own third-quarter result matters more for the next three months than the group's direction.",
  "first_seen": "2026-10-02",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-10-07T03:39:48+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-10-07",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}