{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TTEK",
  "name": "Tetra Tech, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTEK/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTEK.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Tetra Tech's $4.67 billion backlog, up 13%, and fiscal 2027 guidance above consensus give it a modest edge over the S&P 500. The late-January 2027 first-quarter report shows whether net revenue lands inside the $1.040–$1.080 billion forecast.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $35.94, the 50-day average on 2026-11-11, which would erase the post-report gain and show the shares back under their recent trend; or first-quarter fiscal 2027 net revenue below the $1.040 billion low end of the company's forecast.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Tetra Tech reports net revenue (revenue after subcontractor costs) alongside gross revenue, and its guidance is in net revenue; headline 'sales' beats can compare gross revenue to a net-revenue estimate.",
    "Tetra Tech's fiscal year ends on the Sunday closest to 30 September; fiscal 2026 ended on 2026-09-27."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "TETRA TECH INC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000831641/000110465926125600/tm2629545d1_ex99-1.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Tetra Tech (NASDAQ:TTEK) Shares Gap Up Following Strong Earnings",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-tetra-tech-nasdaq-ttek-shares-gap-up-following-strong-earnings-2026-11-12/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Tetra Tech (NASDAQ:TTEK) Stock Gets Price Target Increase from Robert W. Baird",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-tetra-tech-nasdaq-ttek-stock-gets-price-target-increase-from-robert-w-baird-2026-11-12/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Tetra Tech Backlog Hits $4.67 Billion as New Orders Exceed $1.6 Billion",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/mid-cap/26/11/63209962/tetra-tech-backlog-hits-4-67-billion-as-new-orders-exceed-1-6-billion",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Backlog reached $4.67 billion at fiscal year-end, up 13% year over year and more than $530 million higher.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, FY2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-09-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q4 FY2026 adjusted EPS was $0.49, up 9%, against a $0.47 estimate; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51; net revenue was $1.153 billion.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2027 guidance: GAAP EPS $1.65–$1.80 and net revenue $4.425–$4.625 billion; Q1 FY2027 EPS $0.36–$0.38 and net revenue $1.040–$1.080 billion.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2026 net revenue was $4.35 billion, down about 6% reported but up 7% excluding USAID/DOS and episodic disaster response.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2026 operating cash flow was $523.0 million, up 14%; share repurchases were $302.0 million, with $798 million of authorization remaining.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Long-term debt rose to $892.0 million from $763.4 million after $191.9 million of acquisitions in FY2026.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Baird kept a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $40 from $37.",
      "source": "MarketBeat report on Baird note, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Quarterly dividend raised 11% to $0.072 per share, payable 2026-12-11 to holders of record on 2026-12-02.",
      "source": "Tetra Tech 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-06-28",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "value_musd": 1308.6,
              "yoy_pct": -4.5
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            {
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              "value_musd": 1220.2,
              "yoy_pct": -7.7
            },
            {
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              "value_musd": 1210.7,
              "yoy_pct": -14.8
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-11-20",
              "value_musd": 1330.1,
              "yoy_pct": -3.2
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "value_musd": 1369.8,
              "yoy_pct": 1.9
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "value_musd": 1322.1,
              "yoy_pct": 5.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-06-28",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "pct": 18.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-29",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "pct": 17.5
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-01-30",
              "pct": 18.2
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-11-20",
              "pct": 20.6
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "pct": 18.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-03-30",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "pct": 16.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-06-28",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "pct": 12.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-29",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "pct": 10.8
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-01-30",
              "pct": 11.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-28",
              "filed": "2025-11-20",
              "pct": 13.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-29",
              "filed": "2026-07-31",
              "pct": 12
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-03-30",
              "filed": "2026-05-01",
              "pct": 3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 150.8
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-06-28",
          "value_musd": 109.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": 436.7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "first_end": "2025-09-28",
          "value_musd": 567.4
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "base_end": "2025-06-29",
          "pct": -1.9
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 230.8
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 803.5,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": -572.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 268.1,
          "yoy_pct": 6.1
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 4439.8,
          "yoy_pct": 4.7
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 1076.5
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-06-28",
          "filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 1852.1
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 9942.2
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 10514.9
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "multiple": 2.1
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "multiple": 17.2
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "multiple": 22.8
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-07-31",
          "multiple": 5.4
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-11-13",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.99,
      "days_to_cover": 6.8,
      "change_pct": 7.5
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-14",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-17",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-15",
          "bought_usd": 50179,
          "sold_usd": 401455.17,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
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      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nTetra Tech is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. A backlog of $4.67 billion, up 13% in a year, and fiscal 2027 guidance that tops the consensus at its midpoint support near-term earnings. The first-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether net revenue (revenue after subcontractor costs) lands inside the company's $1.040–$1.080 billion forecast.\n\nThe company reported fiscal 2026 results after the close on 2026-11-11. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.49, against a $0.47 estimate. GAAP diluted EPS was a record $0.51, and the dividend rose 11% to $0.072 a quarter. The shares opened at $41.38 on 2026-11-12, according to MarketBeat. In the session before the report they had closed at $37.61, down $3.04.\n\nThe rating is Medium, not HIGH, for two reasons. The fiscal 2027 net revenue guide of $4.425–$4.625 billion implies low-to-mid single-digit growth. Baird kept a Neutral rating on 2026-11-12 with a $40 target. What is priced in: the $37.61 close of 2026-11-11 sat just under the $39.60 average analyst target that MarketBeat reported on 2026-11-12, at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.40. Further gains need earnings to rise faster than the guide's midpoint.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Backlog grew faster than revenue.** Backlog reached $4.67 billion at the fiscal year-end on 2026-09-27, up 13% and more than $530 million in a year (company 8-K, 2026-11-11). Company news on 2026-11-12 said new orders topped $1.6 billion.\n- **Guidance is above consensus at the midpoint.** On 2026-11-11 the company guided fiscal 2027 GAAP EPS to $1.65–$1.80 against a $1.71 estimate. It guided net revenue to $4.425–$4.625 billion against a $4.497 billion estimate (Benzinga, 2026-11-11).\n- **The core business is growing under the headline decline.** Fiscal 2026 net revenue was $4.35 billion, down about 6% as reported. Excluding the lost USAID and State Department (USAID/DOS) work and episodic disaster response, it rose 7% (company 8-K, 2026-11-11).\n- **Margins and cash flow improved.** Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $660.0 million in fiscal 2026, with the margin up 90 basis points. Operating cash flow rose 14% to $523.0 million (company 8-K, 2026-11-11).\n- **Buybacks shrink the share count.** The company repurchased $302.0 million of stock in fiscal 2026, $100 million of it in the fourth quarter. $798 million of authorization remained on 2026-09-27 (company 8-K, 2026-11-11).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Reported growth is still thin.** Fourth-quarter net revenue was $1.153 billion, down about 1% from a year earlier and inside the company's own $1.12–$1.17 billion forecast (company 8-K, 2026-11-11). The quarter met its net revenue forecast without beating it.\n- **The government services segment is shrinking.** Government Services Group net revenue fell to $1.88 billion in fiscal 2026 from $2.32 billion. Only the Commercial/International Services Group grew, to $2.47 billion from $2.29 billion (company 8-K, 2026-11-11).\n- **Federal funding remains a stated risk.** The 2026-11-11 release lists dependence on U.S. government agencies and funding disruption as risks. The loss of USAID work drove the reported revenue decline in fiscal 2026.\n- **Debt rose to fund acquisitions.** Long-term debt rose to $892.0 million from $763.4 million in fiscal 2026, after $191.9 million of acquisitions. Year-end cash was $235.1 million (company 8-K, 2026-11-11).\n- **Analyst targets were cut before the report.** On 2026-10-15 RBC cut its target to $44 from $46 and KeyBanc cut to $41 from $43, per MarketBeat. Baird's $40 target sits only slightly above the last close.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $37.61 on 2026-11-11, 12.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $43.14 set on 2026-02-11. The 52-week closing low was $26.18 on 2026-05-15. Since then the shares have recovered most of their earlier decline.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes, the 2026-11-11 close was above the 50-day moving average of $35.94 and the 200-day average of $33.12. The three-month change is 3.2%, from a $36.43 close on 2026-08-13. From 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-10 the shares closed between $40.29 and $41.09. The 2026-11-12 open of $41.38 was back in that range, according to MarketBeat.\n\nThe case turns on whether the shares hold above the 50-day average as the post-report move settles. A return toward the February high would require earnings to come in at the upper half of the fiscal 2027 guide.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-01-28 (est.):** Q1 fiscal 2027 results. The first test of the fiscal 2027 guide: net revenue inside $1.040–$1.080 billion and EPS of $0.36–$0.38 would confirm that backlog growth is turning into revenue; a figure below the range would break the case.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $35.94, the 50-day average on 2026-11-11, which would erase the post-report gain and show the shares back under their recent trend; or first-quarter fiscal 2027 net revenue below the $1.040 billion low end of the company's forecast.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Further U.S. federal funding cuts or disruption shrink the Government Services Group beyond the USAID loss already absorbed. Confirmed by: Government Services Group net revenue declining again year over year in the Q1 fiscal 2027 report, or a new federal contract cancellation disclosed in an 8-K.\n- Backlog converts to revenue more slowly than the fiscal 2027 guide assumes. Confirmed by: Q1 fiscal 2027 net revenue near or below the $1.040 billion low end while backlog keeps rising.\n- Margin expansion stalls, leaving EPS near the $1.65 low end of the fiscal 2027 guide. Confirmed by: The adjusted EBITDA margin flat or down year over year in the Q1 fiscal 2027 report.\n- Acquisition-funded growth raises leverage and dilutes returns. Confirmed by: Long-term debt rising above the $892.0 million fiscal 2026 year-end level without a matching rise in organic net revenue growth.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nMarketBeat gave the shares a beta of 0.86 on 2026-11-12, so they move somewhat less than the broad market. The main company-specific swing factor is U.S. federal spending. Government Services Group net revenue fell to $1.88 billion from $2.32 billion in fiscal 2026 after the USAID cuts. The growth engine is commercial and international water, environment and infrastructure work. The company's recent federal wins also include NASA, the U.S. Navy, the EPA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA (company 8-K, 2026-11-11). Institutions held about 93.89% of the shares, per MarketBeat on 2026-11-12. Moves therefore tend to follow fund flows around results.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T18:13:05+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}