{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "TTMI",
  "name": "TTM Technologies, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "The 2026-08-05 binary resolved bullishly — Q2 revenue $1.004B beat both the $930–970M guide and $962M consensus, book-to-bill rose to 1.49, Q3 guided $1.100–1.140B vs $1.073B consensus. Yet the 2026-08-14 close of $140.0 is 36.8% below the 52-week high and still under the $155.98 breakdown close. Orders re-accelerated; the price structure is only partway repaired.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "secondarily, a Q3 print with total book-to-bill under 1.0 or revenue below the $1.100B guide low.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "INVALIDATED",
  "outcome_date": "2026-08-24",
  "invalidation_fired": true,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "defense-aerospace",
    "cyclical-industrials",
    "ai-chips-memory"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Guidance and headline EPS are non-GAAP; GAAP results include intangible amortization and restructuring, so the $1.21–1.27 Q3 range is not comparable to GAAP EPS.",
    "Q3 2026 earnings date was not announced as of 2026-08-16; the IR calendar showed no scheduled events after the 2026-08-05 call.",
    "The 90-day backlog figure ($901M at Q2) is explicitly subject to customer cancellation and is not contracted revenue.",
    "A&D revenue converts on multi-year program schedules, so that segment lags rather than leads the AI order cycle.",
    "Capacity expansion is funded by the 2026-06-03 refinancing — $1.0B revolver due 2031 and $400M Term Loan B at SOFR+1.75% due 2030 — with no equity raise attached.",
    "Leadership as of the 2026-08-05 call: CEO Edwin Roks, CFO Dan Boehle."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe binary this name was walking into has resolved, and it resolved on the bull side. Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-05, after close) put revenue at $1.004B against $962.04M consensus and above the company's own $930–970M guide, with adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.90 expected. The Q3 guide — $1.100–1.140B revenue and $1.21–1.27 adjusted EPS against $1.073B/$1.09 consensus — was a raise. Book-to-bill went the right way, 1.41 in Q1 to 1.49 in Q2. What has not happened is a price re-rating: the last completed daily close was $140.0 on 2026-08-14, still 36.8% below the $221.47 52-week high, still under the 2026-07-02 breakdown close of $155.98, and 3-month return sits at -16.3%. The leg on offer is no longer \"will the orders hold\" — the order book answered that — it is whether an owner base that de-grossed in June and July comes back for a business compounding at these rates.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Q2 beat both consensus and the company's own guide**: revenue $1.004B vs $962.04M consensus and a $930–970M guide range; adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.90 (2026-08-05 release). Prior-year Q2 net sales were $730.6M.\n- **Orders still lead shipments and accelerated**: total book-to-bill 1.49 in Q2 versus 1.41 at the Q1 call, with the commercial segment at 1.63 and aerospace & defense at 1.30 (2026-08-05 call).\n- **The cancellable near-term book grew fastest**: 90-day backlog $901M versus $497M a year earlier, +81% YoY (2026-08-05 call).\n- **The AI leg is now the biggest leg**: Data Center & Networking was 40% of Q2 net sales with revenue +91% YoY, and management guided that end market to roughly 49% of Q3 sales.\n- **A named, dollar-quantified product ramp**: approximately $600M of N+M asymmetric PCB production planned across 2H26 (2026-08-05 call) — a specific line item rather than a TAM slide.\n- **Defense backlog grew alongside it**: A&D program backlog over $1.7B at the Q2 call, up from the $1.6B cited on 2026-04-29.\n- **Sell-side moved up, not down, after the print**: Truist Securities maintained Buy and raised its target to $224 from $215 on 2026-08-06; the trailing six-month median of four published targets stood at $211.50 (Benzinga ratings page).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The print did not buy a reclaim**: a beat-and-raise of this size left the 2026-08-14 close at $140.0, below the 2026-07-14 close of $141.97 and well below the 2026-07-02 breakdown close of $155.98. INFERRED, not measured: the June–July drawdown was a multiple and ownership event rather than an estimate event, and the estimate confirmation has not reversed it.\n- **Insider distribution continued straight through the print**: SVP of Information Technology Dale Martin Knecht sold 26,198 shares at $142.00 on 2026-08-10 for $3,720,116, leaving 40,138 shares held. That follows sales by Knecht, Robert P. Farrell and Tom Clapprood in the 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-25 window, into the June top, with no offsetting open-market buys disclosed.\n- **Concentration is rising by design**: guiding Data Center & Networking to ~49% of Q3 sales means roughly half of revenue keys off one capex cycle whose timing TTM does not control.\n- **The fastest-growing backlog measure is the cancellable one**: the $901M 90-day figure is explicitly subject to cancellation, so an order-rate air pocket shows up there first.\n- **Target-to-price gap is wide**: a $211.50 median target against a $140.0 close is roughly a 50% spread, and published targets adjust after price, not before it.\n- **Ownership was broadest at the high**: Russell 1000 inclusion took effect 2026-06-26, eleven days after the $206.66 closing high of 2026-06-15 — the passive bid arrived at the top of the move.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- **Reference levels**: last completed daily close $140.0 (2026-08-14); 52-week high $221.47; distance from that high -36.8%; RSI(14) 60.5, which is mid-range and shows no extension either way.\n- **The July descent, close by close**: $206.66 (2026-06-15) → $155.98 (2026-07-02, a -13.2% session) → $141.97 (2026-07-14) → $133.17 (2026-07-20) → $131.61 (2026-07-24). Each step printed a lower shelf on no company-specific news.\n- **What the print changed**: the sequence of lower shelves stopped after 2026-08-05, and price has held above the $130–132 area that combines the June gap fill with the July closing low. That is a base attempt, not a completed base — $140.0 still sits inside the July breakdown range.\n- **Overhead structure**: $155.98 is the first real resistance (the breakdown session close); above it the June air pocket runs largely unfilled toward $206.66.\n- **The narrative is maturing.** The story is well known and still working on the numbers — Russell 1000 inclusion 2026-06-26 marked mainstream ownership, four sell-side targets cluster near $211.50, and the 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise was fresh, favourable news. Accelerating business, moderating flow.\n- **Crowding observables, stated plainly**: continued insider sales post-print (2026-08-10, 26,198 sh at $142.00); zero disclosed insider buys through a 36% drawdown; analyst targets roughly 50% above spot; no company catalyst on the calendar to force a repricing; RSI 60.5 with price below the 2026-07-14 close.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-08-26 (est.)** — Nvidia fiscal Q2 report, date unconfirmed. Theme-level read-through on AI accelerator and backplane build rates that drive the ~$600M of N+M asymmetric PCB production TTM guided for 2H26.\n- **2026-09-30** — close of the quarter guided to $1.100–1.140B revenue and $1.21–1.27 adjusted EPS. Nothing is disclosed on that date; it is the period the next print grades.\n- **~2026-11-04 (est.)** — Q3 2026 print, outside the 30-day window. Not yet announced as of 2026-08-16.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **No confirmed company event.** TTM's IR calendar, checked 2026-08-16, listed no scheduled events after the 2026-08-05 Q2 conference call. There is no dated company-controlled catalyst inside the next 30 days. *(passed 10d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nGradeably: a weekly close below $128. On fundamentals, three observables would break the leg independently of price — total book-to-bill printing under 1.0 at the Q3 report, Q3 revenue landing below the $1.100B guide low, or the Data Center & Networking mix guided down from the ~49% of Q3 sales management indicated, which would mean the AI ramp is stalling rather than compounding. On the other side, a weekly close back above $155.98 would reclaim the 2026-07-02 breakdown level and argue the de-grossing is finished; that is the level that would flip the structural read constructive.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Moves with the AI hardware supply chain rather than with broad industrials — the -13.2% session on 2026-07-02 came with no company news, consistent with a basket de-grossing across AI-adjacent hardware suppliers.\n- Direct exposure to hyperscaler and custom-silicon build rates through the Data Center & Networking segment (40% of Q2 sales, +91% YoY), so accelerator-vendor guidance is a leading input to the order book.\n- The aerospace & defense leg (book-to-bill 1.30, program backlog over $1.7B at the Q2 call) converts on program schedules and is the part of the mix least tied to hyperscaler capex timing.\n- Passive flow sensitivity increased with Russell 1000 inclusion effective 2026-06-26, which widens the index-driven component of any future drawdown.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-01",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-16T12:29:22+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-16",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}