{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "XE", "name": "X-Energy, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XE/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XE.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a1", "n": 1 }, "current_thesis": "X-Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the NRC approved Dow's Long Mott permit on 9 November 2026, but the 12 November 2026 report showed losses widening and first power stays in the early 2030s. Dow's 2027 investment decision settles the commercial case.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $13.50, over the 50-day moving average as of 2026-11-12, which would show the post-IPO slide reversing. Dow announcing a preliminary investment decision to build Long Mott would also show the shares leading.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-30", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "nuclear-uranium", "ai-datacenter-infrastructure" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "X-Energy listed on Nasdaq on 2026-04-24 after pricing its initial public offering at $23.00 per share on 2026-04-23.", "The company has Class A and Class B shares outstanding: 297.5 million and 108.7 million as of 2026-09-30, per its third-quarter 2026 10-Q.", "Reported revenue includes Department of Energy grant income tied to the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, not only commercial sales." ], "source_links": [ { "title": "X-energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results", "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/12/3401332/0/en/x-energy-reports-third-quarter-2026-results.html", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "X-Energy, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002088896/000119312526456659/xe-20260930.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Earnings call transcript: X-Energy Q3 2026 revenue jumps 118% as permit wins lift outlook", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-xenergy-q3-2026-revenue-jumps-118-as-permit-wins-lift-outlook-93CH-5022386", "date": "2026-11-12" }, { "title": "US Regulator Completes Safety Review For X-energy's Xe-100 Nuclear Plant", "url": "https://www.nucnet.org/news/us-regulator-completes-safety-review-for-x-energy-s-xe-100-nuclear-plant-11-1-2026", "date": null }, { "title": "X-energy selects Fluor for second Xe-100 project", "url": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/x-energy-selects-fluor-for-second-xe-100-project", "date": null }, { "title": "X-Energy, Inc. (XE) IPO", "url": "https://therighttrader.com/ipo-calendar/xe", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue and grant income was $66.3 million, up 118% from $30.4 million a year earlier; the nine-month total was $164.4 million, up 126%.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 results release and 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss was $75.7 million against $36.7 million a year earlier; adjusted loss per share was $0.14 against a $0.10 estimate.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 results release", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Total liquidity was $1,805.5 million at 2026-09-30 ($1,044.1 million cash, $514.3 million short-term and $247.1 million long-term investments), with no debt.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Operating cash flow was negative $51.2 million in the third quarter of 2026 and negative $215.8 million for the nine months ended 2026-09-30.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "The NRC approved the construction permit for four Xe-100 reactors at Dow's Long Mott Generating Station in Seadrift, Texas.", "source": "X-energy and Dow announcement", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "Vertical construction of the TX-1 TRISO-X fuel facility in Oak Ridge was completed on schedule; planned capacity is about 700,000 pebbles a year.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 results release", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Director and 10% owner Kamal Ghaffarian reported an other acquisition or disposition of 108,174 shares on 2026-11-02 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04", "as_of": "2026-11-02" }, { "claim": "Management said Dow will consider a preliminary investment decision on Long Mott in 2027 and reiterated first-project operation in the early 2030s.", "source": "X-Energy third-quarter 2026 earnings call", "as_of": "2026-11-12" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 66.3, "yoy_pct": 118 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "value_musd": 54.6, "yoy_pct": 153.9 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-06-04", "value_musd": 43.4, "yoy_pct": 108.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 30.4, "yoy_pct": null }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "value_musd": 21.5, "yoy_pct": null } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": -41 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": -58.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-06-04", "pct": -50.5 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": -27.6 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": -68 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": -156.2 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": -201.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-06-04", "pct": -152.2 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "pct": -133.7 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-13", "pct": -198.9 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "not reported" }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": -59.4 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not available" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "not reported" }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 1558.4 }, "debt": { "status": "not available" }, "net_cash": { "status": "not available" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 28.7, "yoy_pct": null }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 51.4 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-12", "value_musd": 1485.3 }, "market_value": { "status": "not available" }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "not available" }, "pb": { "status": "not available" }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-11-13", "short_pct_of_outstanding": null, "days_to_cover": 3.7, "change_pct": -11.2 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-14", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-17", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-15", "bought_usd": 282900, "sold_usd": 0, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nX-Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The licensing progress is real, but no event inside that window turns it into cash flow, losses are widening, and the shares have kept falling since the insider lock-up ended. Dow's preliminary investment decision on the Long Mott plant, which management expects in 2027, settles the commercial case. Until then, quarterly cash burn and the company's 2027 milestones carry the shares.\n\nThe progress is concrete. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) finished its safety review of the Xe-100 reactor for Long Mott on 2026-10-30. On 2026-11-09 it approved the construction permit for four Xe-100 units at Dow's Seadrift, Texas site. The company calls it the first permit for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in nearly 60 years.\n\nThe third-quarter report on 2026-11-12 did not change the picture. Revenue and grant income beat estimates, but the adjusted loss per share missed, and the company repeated that its first project comes online in the early 2030s. The shares closed at $11.26 on 2026-11-12, below the 50-day moving average of $13.34 and down 46.3% over three months, based on adjusted daily closes.\n\nThe price reflects a long wait at a deep discount to the listing: the $11.26 close on 2026-11-12 is less than half the $23.00 initial public offering (IPO) price set on 2026-04-23. The rating is Low because the evidence that would show the shares leading, a firm customer investment decision or a funded construction start, has no confirmed date inside three months.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Licensing is running ahead of schedule.** The NRC approved the Long Mott construction permit on 2026-11-09, which the companies say was more than a month early. Management said on the 2026-11-12 call that the NRC's informal guidance points to 6–12 month reviews for later applications, against 17 months for Dow.\n- **Revenue is growing fast.** Third-quarter revenue and grant income was $66.3 million, up 118% from $30.4 million a year earlier, according to the 2026-11-12 release. It beat the $59.9 million analyst estimate, and nine-month revenue reached $164.4 million, up 126%.\n- **The balance sheet is large and debt-free.** At 2026-09-30 the company held $1,044.1 million in cash, $514.3 million in short-term investments and $247.1 million in long-term investments, with no debt, per the third-quarter 10-Q.\n- **Fuel supply is advancing with the reactor.** Vertical construction of the TX-1 TRISO-X fuel plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee finished on schedule, according to the 2026-11-12 release. The plant is sized at about 700,000 fuel pebbles a year.\n- **Large customers are lined up.** The company reported a pipeline of 144 reactors, about 11.5 gigawatts, on 2026-11-12, assuming customers exercise their contingent rights in full. Fluor was named engineering contractor for the four-unit Cascade project with Energy Northwest and Amazon in Washington on 2026-11-05.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Losses are growing faster than revenue.** The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) loss was $75.7 million, against $36.7 million a year earlier, per the 2026-11-12 release. Adjusted loss per share was $0.14, against a $0.10 estimate.\n- **Cash burn is steady.** Operating cash flow was negative $51.2 million in the third quarter and negative $215.8 million over the nine months to 2026-09-30, per the 10-Q.\n- **Revenue rests on grants and engineering work.** The 2026-11-12 release attributes the growth mainly to work under the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. No Xe-100 sells power before the early 2030s, management said on the same day.\n- **No firm construction commitment yet.** On the 2026-11-12 call, management said Dow will consider a preliminary investment decision in 2027 through a gated process covering engineering, cost targets and operating assumptions. Full construction follows only a final decision.\n- **A large share count has become sellable.** IPO calendar listings show the 180-day insider lock-up ending on 2026-10-21. The 2026-09-30 count was 297.5 million Class A and 108.7 million Class B shares, per the 10-Q, and director and 10% owner Kamal Ghaffarian reported a disposition-or-acquisition of 108,174 shares on 2026-11-02 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $11.26 on 2026-11-12, the day of the third-quarter report. The 50-day moving average stood at $13.34 on the same date, and the 3-month change was −46.3%, both from adjusted daily closes. The $23.00 IPO price of 2026-04-23 is the level every buyer since the listing is measured against.\n\nThe case turns on the 50-day average. A sustained recovery above it would show buying returning after the lock-up selling. Staying under it keeps the shares in the decline that neither the 2026-11-09 permit nor the 2026-11-12 revenue beat has broken.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-30:** X-Energy presents at the UBS investor conference. The first public update after the third-quarter report could carry the promised 2027 milestones and timing for Dow's investment decision.\n- **2026-12-10:** X-Energy presents at the Truist and Stifel investor conferences. Further chances to set dated 2027 targets for Long Mott, Cascade and the TX-1 fuel plant, which would firm up or weaken the timeline.\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. They show whether cash burn and the widening adjusted EBITDA loss are stabilising against $1.8 billion of liquidity.\n- **~2027 (est.):** Dow preliminary investment decision on Long Mott. The first customer commitment to build an Xe-100 plant, and the event that settles the commercial case.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $13.50, over the 50-day moving average as of 2026-11-12, which would show the post-IPO slide reversing. Dow announcing a preliminary investment decision to build Long Mott would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares trade with the listed small-modular-reactor developers, which tend to move together on nuclear-power and AI-datacenter electricity sentiment more than on their own results. Amazon is a partner in two of the announced deployments, Cascade in Washington and the AEP evaluation in Indiana, so news on Amazon's datacenter power buying is a shared driver. Fluor, named Cascade contractor on 2026-11-05, and Dow, the Long Mott customer, depend on the same project schedule.", "first_seen": "2026-11-12", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:59:44+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13", "date_modified": "2026-11-13", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }