{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "YEXT",
  "name": "Yext, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YEXT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YEXT.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Legacy presence-management vendor repositioning into answer-engine optimization; the recovery extended to $6.35 (2026-08-21), up 72.6% in three months with RSI(14) 69.6, on no operating datapoint newer than the 2026-06-02 Q1 print. On 2026-08-18 the company fixed the binary — Q2 FY2027 lands 2026-09-01 before the open, a week earlier than the prior estimate.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $5.70 gives back the entire August advance leg and returns price beneath the $6–$7 shelf where support broke; secondary confirmation is the 2026-09-01 Q2 FY2027 print showing headline ARR flat-to-down from $440.8M with no organic ex-Hearsay split disclosed.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-09-01",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software",
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Fiscal year ends January 31; the 2026-09-01 report covers Q2 FY2027, the quarter ended 2026-07-31.",
    "Hearsay Systems (up to $220M) closed 2025-08-01, so headline YoY comparisons only begin lapping the acquisition from Q3 FY2027.",
    "The low-multiple framing is non-GAAP; trailing GAAP P/E stood at 70.3 in the 2026-08-07 snapshot.",
    "Coverage is thin at roughly three to four firms and aggregator panels disagree, so any single published consensus target should be read loosely.",
    "Results are released before the market opens, so the reaction prints as a gap rather than an after-hours drift."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nTwo things moved since the 2026-08-09 update, and only one of them is fundamental. Price left the July $5.00–$5.10 consolidation and closed at $6.35 on 2026-08-21, with RSI(14) at 69.6 against 56.4 on 2026-08-07 and a three-month price change of +72.6% against +42.5% two weeks earlier — the advance steepened. Separately, on 2026-08-18 the company fixed the binary it had left open: Q2 FY2027 results are scheduled for Tuesday 2026-09-01 before the market opens, seven days earlier than the third-party estimate the prior note carried. The narrative leg an investor is buying is unchanged — a legacy digital-presence vendor (local listings, store pages, reviews) arguing its structured-data layer becomes the plumbing AI answer engines read, with Scout as the product expression. What has not arrived is any operating datapoint newer than the 2026-06-02 Q1 FY2027 print. The entire recovery is an anticipation trade with a now-dated expiry.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended 2026-04-30, reported 2026-06-02): revenue ~$107.9M, ARR $440.8M, adjusted EBITDA $26.9M (~25% margin), non-GAAP EPS $0.15. The repositioning is funded out of operations.\n- The date is confirmed rather than estimated: a 2026-08-18 release put Q2 FY2027 results on 2026-09-01 before the open. The information vacuum the July–August move ran through now closes on a known session.\n- Float shrink is documented and dated: modified Dutch auction final results 2026-03-20 retired 24.3M shares for ~$140M, with $100M added to the open-market repurchase authorization; shares outstanding were 100.25M in the 2026-08-07 snapshot.\n- Product cadence exists on the record — Scout Visibility Intelligence opened to partners via MCP and API on 2026-05-18; \"Yext Opens Full Platform for Trusted Agentic Marketing Execution\" on 2026-06-17.\n- Per MarketBeat's compilation, Needham reiterated a Buy with a $10.00 twelve-month target dated 2026-08-18 — the high mark on a panel whose average aggregators put near $7.00 as of 2026-08-22.\n\n## Bear Case\n- The steep part of the move came with no company release behind it. Yext's last substantive announcement is dated 2026-06-17; the only item since was a board appointment (Cynthia Paul, 2026-07-07). Price added roughly a tenth between the 2026-08-07 close of $5.73 and the 2026-08-21 close of $6.35 on that news set.\n- At $6.35 the shares sit inside the $6–$7 band where support failed on the way down, and 30.7% under the $9.16 52-week high. A recovered shelf is not a new high.\n- The cheap-software framing is non-GAAP. Trailing GAAP P/E stood at 70.3 against a $574.4M market cap in the 2026-08-07 snapshot.\n- Headline growth is acquired growth. Hearsay Systems (up to $220M, closed 2025-08-01) drove FY2026's ~6% revenue increase; excluding it, revenue fell ~2%. Comparisons only begin lapping the deal from Q3 FY2027.\n- Published upside to the covering panel has largely been consumed: aggregators as of 2026-08-22 show a three-analyst average near $7.00 with a $6.00 low and $8.00 high, against a $6.35 close.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last close $6.35 (2026-08-21). 52-week high $9.16, 30.7% above that close; the shares are up 72.6% over three months; RSI(14) 69.6.\n- The path is documented: the 2026-06-02 print gapped shares ~18% to roughly $3.45, just above the $3.27 52-week low, then ~$5.09 (2026-07-10), $5.73 (2026-08-07), $6.35 (2026-08-21). The $5.00–$5.10 July consolidation is the deeper reference floor; the nearer one is the 2026-08-07 close, beneath which the whole August leg is undone.\n- Crowding and positioning observables, stated as observables: RSI(14) 69.6 with a scheduled print ten sessions out; a three-month move that steepened materially in the fortnight after the last update; a covering panel of roughly three to four firms whose published average the price has nearly reached; and aggregator disagreement on that panel itself — one screen shows three analysts averaging $7.00, another four analysts averaging $7.50 with a $10.00 high. No new SEC filing appeared in the feed reviewed for this update between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-21, so there is no fresh insider-transaction or issuance datapoint in either direction.\n- **The narrative is maturing.** Answer-engine optimization is broadly covered across enterprise software, and the Yext-specific news flow has produced nothing new since 2026-06-17 — what accelerated is the price, while the story stood still. The 2026-09-01 print is the event that decides whether this label moves toward accelerating (organic ARR inflects and Scout gets quantified) or toward saturated (a second consecutive quarter with no organic disclosure into an already-extended tape).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-09-01, before market open (confirmed 2026-08-18):** Q2 FY2027 results, quarter ended 2026-07-31. First operating datapoint since the 2026-06-02 miss. The ARR line against $440.8M, whether an organic/ex-Hearsay split is disclosed, and any Scout revenue quantification decide whether the recovery was anticipation or repair. Reporting pre-open means the reaction is a gap, not an after-hours drift.\n- **~2026-09-02 to ~2026-09-10 (est.):** Form 10-Q for Q2 FY2027. Share count against the 100.25M outstanding in the 2026-08-07 snapshot shows whether the open-market repurchase against the $100M added on 2026-03-20 is still absorbing float.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- No other dated company event is scheduled inside the window as of 2026-08-22. *(passed 4d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe structure that matters is the August advance leg itself, and it has a fixed expiry ten sessions out. If the 2026-09-01 print again reports headline ARR flat-to-down from $440.8M and again declines to break organic out from acquired, the premise the July–August re-rating was paid for has not been evidenced twice in a row, and price is doing that reassessment from inside a broken supply band rather than from a base. The gradeable break: a daily close below $5.70 gives back the entire August leg and puts the shares under the $6–$7 shelf again; the deeper structural failure is a weekly close under $5.00, which forfeits the July consolidation and re-opens the post-gap range toward $3.45. The reverse would be equally concrete — ARR printing above $440.8M with a disclosed organic split and a quantified Scout contribution would be the first fundamental confirmation the repositioning is showing up in the numbers, and would justify re-labelling the life-cycle. A covering firm cutting to a sub-$5 target after the print, on a panel this thin, would do the opposite.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Small-cap enterprise SaaS beta: with a $574.4M market cap in the 2026-08-07 snapshot, the name moves with software risk appetite (IGV, Russell 2000) more than with its own fundamentals between prints, which is most of the calendar given the last release was 2026-06-17.\n- The AI-search narrative cuts both ways on the same headline. Coverage arguing assistants disintermediate the open web supports the Scout/AEO framing while pressuring SEO and web-analytics comps; Yext is exposed to both readings simultaneously, because its installed base is presence management and its pitch is the layer that replaces it.\n- Gap risk is a structural feature here: a single earnings session moved the shares ~18% on 2026-06-02. With roughly three to four covering firms, there is little estimate dispersion to cushion a surprise in either direction.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-22T11:25:47+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-22",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}