{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ZM",
  "name": "Zoom Communications, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZM/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZM.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Zoom Communications shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead: enterprise growth is improving but total revenue grows near 5%, and the 23 November 2026 third-quarter report must deliver a bigger raise than the market expects.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $110, over the 2026-08-13 close of $109.84, which would show the shares leading again; or a 2026-11-23 report with Enterprise revenue growth above the second quarter's 7.8% and a raised fiscal 2027 outlook.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-23",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Zoom's fiscal year ends on January 31; fiscal 2027 runs from February 2026 through January 2027.",
    "Senior executives and directors sell regularly under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, which are set in advance; these sales appear in SEC Form 4 filings.",
    "Zoom's guidance excludes the effect of its remaining share-repurchase authorization."
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027",
      "url": "https://mfn.se/all/a/zoom-video-communications-inc/zoom-communications-reports-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2027-8e6fe00a",
      "date": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "title": "Why is Zoom Communications stock rallying today?",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-zoom-communications-stock-rallying-today-93CH-5019537",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027",
      "url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/zoom-release-financial-results-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-2026-10-29",
      "date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings Whispers",
      "url": "https://earningswhispers.com/epsdetails/ZM/202607",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "SiliconANGLE",
      "url": "https://siliconangle.com/2026/02/25/zoom-shares-sink-earnings-miss-weaker-fiscal-2027-outlook/",
      "date": "2026-02-25"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q2 FY27 total revenue $1,277.2M, up 4.9% year over year; Enterprise revenue $787.5M, up 7.8%; Online revenue $489.7M, up 0.6%",
      "source": "Zoom Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal 2027 guidance raised to revenue of $5.085–$5.095B and non-GAAP EPS of $6.08–$6.12, from $5.080–$5.090B and $5.96–$6.00",
      "source": "Zoom Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 FY27 guidance: revenue $1.275–$1.280B, non-GAAP operating income $510–$515M, non-GAAP EPS $1.46–$1.48",
      "source": "Zoom Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 FY27 free cash flow $472.4M; about 3.7M shares repurchased for about $360.5M; cash and marketable securities $7.2B; about $1.3B of buyback authorization remaining",
      "source": "Zoom Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Zoom Virtual Agent customer count up 256% year over year; customers above $100K trailing-12-month revenue at 4,625, up 8.2%",
      "source": "Zoom Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Mizuho reiterated Outperform and a $120 price target and called second-half guidance conservative",
      "source": "Investing.com, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Eric Yuan sold 24,200 shares at an average $92.20 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-08-26",
              "value_musd": 1277.2,
              "yoy_pct": 4.9
            },
            {
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              "value_musd": 1239,
              "yoy_pct": 5.5
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              "value_musd": 1247,
              "yoy_pct": 5.3
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              "yoy_pct": 4.7
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              "yoy_pct": 2.9
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-08-26",
              "pct": 77.2
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              "pct": 77.9
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              "pct": 76.3
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        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-08-26",
              "pct": 24.6
            },
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              "pct": 20
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              "pct": 26.4
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              "pct": 20.6
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        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 1995
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 1542.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": 3255.1
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        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "value_musd": 2000.2
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
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          "value_musd": 74.6
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        "free_cash_flow": {
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          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
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          "value_musd": 1925.7
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        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "base_end": "2025-07-31",
          "pct": -2.8
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        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 7249.7
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
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          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 7249.7,
          "note": "no debt reported"
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          "value_musd": 1562.2,
          "yoy_pct": 5.6
        },
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          "yoy_pct": 14.1
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          "value_musd": 533
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          "value_musd": 22665,
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          "basis_filed": "2026-08-26",
          "multiple": 4.5,
          "note": "no debt reported"
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          "multiple": 19.1,
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          "multiple": 9.2
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      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-11-13",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.07,
      "days_to_cover": 2.3,
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      "windows": [
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          "status": "ok",
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nZoom Communications is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Its enterprise business is improving, but total revenue grows about 5% a year, and the shares fell after the last beat-and-raise. The third-quarter fiscal 2027 report on 2026-11-23 settles it: the shares need a bigger raise than the market already expects.\n\nThe rating is Low because the business facts are steady rather than accelerating. On 2026-08-25 Zoom reported second-quarter revenue of $1,277.2 million, up 4.9% year over year, and lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $5.085–$5.095 billion. The shares still closed at $98.08 on 2026-11-11, below the $109.84 close of 2026-08-13. That close is 14.5% under the 52-week intraday high of $114.74 set on 2026-06-01. The market is pricing a company that grows in the low single digits and returns cash. It is not yet pricing an AI-led reacceleration.\n\nThe 2026-11-11 session moved the shares from $90.91 to $98.08. Investing.com tied the move to Mizuho, which reiterated its Outperform rating and $120 target that day and called second-half guidance conservative. That run-up raises the bar for the 2026-11-23 report.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Enterprise growth is the fastest in three years.** Enterprise revenue was $787.5 million in the quarter ended 2026-07-31, up 7.8% year over year. Chief Executive Eric Yuan called it the strongest growth rate in three years (company release, 2026-08-25).\n- **AI customer-experience products are scaling.** Zoom said on 2026-08-25 that its AI-first Customer Experience portfolio is growing at a \"high-double-digit\" annual recurring revenue rate. Zoom Virtual Agent customers rose 256% year over year.\n- **Large customers and retention are edging up.** Customers above $100,000 of trailing-12-month revenue reached 4,625, up 8.2%. The enterprise net dollar expansion rate rose to 99% from 98% (Q2 FY27 release, 2026-08-25).\n- **Cash generation funds steady buybacks.** Second-quarter free cash flow was $472.4 million. Zoom spent about $360.5 million repurchasing roughly 3.7 million shares, held $7.2 billion of cash and marketable securities, and had about $1.3 billion of authorization left at 2026-07-31.\n- **An analyst sees a beat-and-raise.** Mizuho on 2026-11-11 kept its Outperform rating and $120 target and pointed to conservative second-half guidance (Investing.com, 2026-11-11).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The consumer side is flat.** Online revenue was $489.7 million in the second quarter, up 0.6% year over year. Online monthly churn held at 2.9% (Q2 FY27 release, 2026-08-25).\n- **The guide implies no step-up.** Zoom guided third-quarter revenue to $1.275–$1.280 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to $1.46–$1.48, below the second quarter's $1.277 billion and $1.55 (company releases, 2026-08-25).\n- **Beats have the price.** Second-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.55 beat the $1.48 consensus (Earnings Whispers, 2026-08-25). The shares still fell from $109.84 on 2026-08-13 to $88.82 on 2026-11-05.\n- **Senior insiders sold into the decline.** SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Executive Eric Yuan sold 24,200 shares at an average $92.20 on 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-04. Chief Financial Officer Michelle Chang sold 10,156 shares at $101.93 on 2026-10-21 and 8,489 shares at an average $99.46 on 2026-10-12. All of these sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.\n- **The fiscal 2027 outlook started weak.** SiliconANGLE reported on 2026-02-25 that the shares sank after an earnings miss and a weaker fiscal 2027 outlook. The 52-week closing low of $72.72 followed on 2026-03-02.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $98.08 on 2026-11-11. That puts them above the 50-day moving average of $94.32 and the 200-day moving average of $92.37, both as of that close. Adjusted daily closes show a 10.7% fall over three months, from the $109.84 reference close on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe recent range runs from a $88.82 close on 2026-11-05 up to $98.08 six sessions later. The levels the case turns on are the mid-August closes near $110 and the 52-week intraday high of $114.74 from 2026-06-01. Regaining those would show the market paying for the enterprise acceleration. A return below the 200-day average would put the shares back inside the early-November range.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-23:** Third-quarter fiscal 2027 results, after the market close, with a webinar at 5:00 pm ET. This shows whether Enterprise growth keeps accelerating past 7.8% and whether Zoom raises the fiscal 2027 outlook by more than the market already expects after the run-up on 2026-11-11.\n- **~2027-02-23 (est.):** Fourth-quarter fiscal 2027 results and the first fiscal 2028 outlook. The first full-year fiscal 2028 guide shows whether AI customer-experience products lift total revenue growth above the current pace near 5%.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $110, over the 2026-08-13 close of $109.84, which would show the shares leading again; or a 2026-11-23 report with Enterprise revenue growth above the second quarter's 7.8% and a raised fiscal 2027 outlook.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nZoom trades with large-cap application software. On 2026-11-11 the gain coincided with a Nasdaq rebound after CoreWeave's results, and the S&P 500 also rose (Investing.com, 2026-11-11). Its earnings move follows its own revenue and guidance more than any AI-hardware cycle. The $7.2 billion cash balance and buybacks make it trade more like a cash-return software name than a growth name. Small strategic investments announced in November 2026, in geniosAI on 2026-11-09 and Medaica on 2026-11-12, are too small to move the consolidated numbers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T18:15:43+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}