# FrontierPicks — full index for LLMs > Every pick graded in public. Losses stay up. AI stock picks graded in public. A frontier language model reads US equity news, filings and prices every trading day and publishes per-ticker dossiers, a macro view and a live watchlist — a pick carries the exact kill line that would prove it wrong, published in advance, and is scored played out or invalidated when a real close reaches one of its two levels. Open methodology, losses included, nothing to sell. Source URL prefix: https://frontierpicks.com Last content update: 2026-08-25 (Europe/Berlin). ## Resolved track record — dated, falsifiable calls with published outcomes FrontierPicks maintains a public, dated calibration record of AI-generated equity research. Each pick ships a kill line in advance and is graded mechanically against that pre-published condition; the ones a real close has settled are listed below. 351 picks have resolved: 160 reached their case, 191 closed on their stated line. Murphy reliability 0.010 (a mean-squared term, read per tier — see the per-tier rows on /track-record/). Brier 0.255, read against the 0.248 a forecaster scores by staking the base rate on every pick (a reference, not a floor — a Brier score's floor is 0); resolution 0.003 is the open question at this sample size. Full record: https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/ · machine-readable: https://frontierpicks.com/track-record.json. Of 827 published FrontierPicks dossiers, 160 reached their case, 191 hit their published kill line, and 476 are still undecided (42 live with an armed line, 434 lapsed). 42.4% of published picks have reached a verdict — 351 of 827. A pick reaches a verdict when a real close prints its published kill line or its 1:1 target; a name that goes sideways reaches neither and stays undecided. Mechanism, all three counts, and a measured comparison of the decided vs undecided cohorts against the scanned universe: https://frontierpicks.com/how-picks-resolve/. - [ADBE — Adobe Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADBE/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [AKAM — Akamai Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKAM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [ALAB — Astera Labs, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALAB/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AUR — Aurora Innovation, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [BHE — Benchmark Electronics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHE/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [DGII — Digi International Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGII/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-08-16, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [NET — Cloudflare, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NET/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PLPC — Preformed Line Products Company](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLPC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [TTMI — TTM Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ULCC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [XNCR — Xencor, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XNCR/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-07-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AAON — AAON, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAON/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ACDC — ProFrac Holding Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACDC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AIP — Arteris, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIP/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ALNT — Allient Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALNT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AVR — Anteris Technologies Global Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [BKNG — Booking Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKNG/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-08-07, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [BKSY — BlackSky Technology Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKSY/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-08-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [BMNR — BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMNR/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [GFS — GlobalFoundries Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GFS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [HTFL — Heartflow, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTFL/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-08-16, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NP/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-07-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [POWL — Powell Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RH](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RH/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-24, published 2026-07-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SUPV — Grupo Supervielle S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SUPV/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [TGTX — TG Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TGTX/): resolved played out 2026-08-24, published 2026-06-18, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [EPAM — EPAM SYSTEMS, INC.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPAM/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TIC — TIC Solutions, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TIC/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-12, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CYRX — CryoPort, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CYRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-20, published 2026-05-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IESC — IES Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IESC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-20, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PCTY — Paylocity Holding Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCTY/): resolved played out 2026-08-20, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [WIX — Wix.com Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WIX/): resolved played out 2026-08-20, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [GSM — Ferroglobe PLC](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GSM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-20, published 2026-08-09, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [HOV — Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Class A](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HOV/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-20, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [LNC — Lincoln National Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LNC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-20, published 2026-07-31, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SPSC — SPS Commerce, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPSC/): resolved played out 2026-08-19, published 2026-08-04, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [TEAM — Atlassian Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEAM/): resolved played out 2026-08-19, published 2026-07-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [G — Genpact Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/G/): resolved played out 2026-08-19, published 2026-07-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IQ — iQIYI, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IQ/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-19, published 2026-07-29, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TASK — TaskUs, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TASK/): resolved played out 2026-08-19, published 2026-07-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CRWV — CoreWeave, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWV/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [ARM — Arm Holdings plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [INTC — Intel Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CMCO — Columbus McKinnon Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMCO/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-07-31, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [FTK — Flotek Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTK/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [JWEL — Jowell Global Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JWEL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-08-11, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [KC — Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-08-04, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [SAH — Sonic Automotive, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAH/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-07-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TLN — Talen Energy Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [COHU — Cohu, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ENTG — Entegris, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENTG/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-06-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [EVER — EverQuote, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVER/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-06, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [FA — First Advantage Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FA/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-07-15, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [COCO — The Vita Coco Company, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COCO/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSCO/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVLG/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-06-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [DUOT — Duos Technologies Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DUOT/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-27, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [EXFY — Expensify, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXFY/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-07-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FCEL/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [HIMS — Hims & Hers Health, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [ICHR — Ichor Holdings](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICHR/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IHRT — iHeartMedia, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IHRT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MKSI — MKS Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKSI/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-06-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPC/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [OEC — Orion S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OEC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [TSAT — Telesat Corporation Class A Common Shares and Class B Variable Voting Shares](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSAT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-17, published 2026-08-09, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [VPG — Vishay Precision Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VPG/): resolved played out 2026-08-17, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [KEYS — Keysight Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEYS/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PTGX — Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTGX/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KLC — KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PRGS — Progress Software Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRGS/): resolved played out 2026-08-13, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [WEX — WEX Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEX/): resolved played out 2026-08-13, published 2026-07-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [RHI — Robert Half Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RHI/): resolved played out 2026-08-13, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [VLO — Valero Energy Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VLO/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-07-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASX/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-05-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BWIN — The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWIN/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CGC — Canopy Growth Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGC/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CRS — Carpenter Technology Corp](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-12, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [SATL — Satellogic Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SATL/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [CGEM — Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGEM/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-07-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [HTZ — Hertz Global Holdings, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTZ/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SE — Sea Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SE/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [BBBY — Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBBY/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BCAX — Bicara Therapeutics Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BCAX/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-06-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [DJT — Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DJT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-07-28, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [EVC — Entravision Communication](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IMRX — Immuneering Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-07-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [PANL — Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-08-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [PBI — Pitney Bowes Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBI/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [RUM — Rumble Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RUM/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLF/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [ORKA — Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORKA/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [VG — Venture Global, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VG/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [EQNR — Equinor ASA](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EQNR/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [FBIN — Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBIN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [GLUE — Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLUE/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-12, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MGM — MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-06-11, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TORO — Toro Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TORO/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-04-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [WLFC — Willis Lease Finance Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WLFC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [WSC — WillScot Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [OKLO — Oklo Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKLO/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CCC — CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCC/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FRD — Friedman Industries Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FRD/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [SENS — Senseonics Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SENS/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [TNDM — Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNDM/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [WEAV — Weave Communications, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEAV/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [WDC — Western Digital Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ELF — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELF/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MIRM — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MIRM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RAPP — Rapport Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAPP/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKBA/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BROS — Dutch Bros Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BROS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [CHYM — Chime Financial, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHYM/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FLY — Firefly Aerospace Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLY/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [GGAL — Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GGAL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [GOLF — Acushnet Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOLF/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [HELP — Cybin Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELP/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [LZ — LegalZoom.com, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LZ/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-07-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NWPX — NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWPX/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [QURE — uniQure N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QURE/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-05-27, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ZVRA — Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZVRA/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-11, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BBAR — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBAR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-05, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [GHRS — GH Research PLC](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GHRS/): resolved played out 2026-08-05, published 2026-07-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [COMP — Compass, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COMP/): resolved played out 2026-08-05, published 2026-06-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TBI — Trueblue, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBI/): resolved played out 2026-08-05, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [UI — Ubiquiti Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UI/): resolved played out 2026-08-05, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [HRI — Herc Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HRI/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-05-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKTR/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AEIS — Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEIS/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AOSL/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BRKR — Bruker Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRKR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-04, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [DDOG — Datadog, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDOG/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [ORIC — Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORIC/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [VECO — Veeco Instruments Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VECO/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [WGS — GeneDx Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WGS/): resolved played out 2026-08-04, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AMBA — Ambarella, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBA/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PGEN — Precigen, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGEN/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-07-07, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RRGB — Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRGB/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [AAPL — Apple Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAPL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AGX — Argan, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGX/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ATEN — A10 Networks Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [BTE — Baytex Energy Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTE/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [FIG — Figma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIG/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-07-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KURA — Kura Oncology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KURA/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-03, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MDB — MongoDB, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MDB/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MSFT — Microsoft Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSFT/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODFL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-03, published 2026-06-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [RDW — Redwire Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDW/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SABR — Sabre Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SABR/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SVV — Savers Value Village, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SVV/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [XRX — Xerox Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [VCYT — Veracyte, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCYT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-21, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NSIT — Insight Enterprises, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSIT/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [RBLX — Roblox Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBLX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-07-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MRX — Marex Group plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRX/): resolved played out 2026-07-30, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PRCH — Porch Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRCH/): resolved played out 2026-07-30, published 2026-05-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [KSS — Kohls Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KSS/): resolved played out 2026-07-30, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SNEX — StoneX Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNEX/): resolved played out 2026-07-30, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [UNIT — Uniti Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UNIT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-30, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IREN — IREN Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IREN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NNE/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRDO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CTOS — Custom Truck One Source, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTOS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MEI — Methode Electronics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [RMAX — Re/Max Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMAX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-28, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The)](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAKE/): resolved played out 2026-07-29, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [DDD — 3D Systems Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDD/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ENOV — Enovis Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENOV/): resolved played out 2026-07-29, published 2026-07-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FOUR — Shift4 Payments, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOUR/): resolved played out 2026-07-29, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [GTX — Garrett Motion Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IART — Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IART/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-05-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [JACK — Jack In The Box Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JACK/): resolved played out 2026-07-29, published 2026-06-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [LUNR — Intuitive Machines, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LUNR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ON/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [OUST — Ouster, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OUST/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-29, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PAY — Paymentus Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAY/): resolved played out 2026-07-29, published 2026-07-12, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [SITM — SiTime Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SITM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-29, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RXO — RXO, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [STX — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [UMC — United Microelectronic Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UMC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MTUM](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTUM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-07-02, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [ACIW — ACI Worldwide, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACIW/): resolved played out 2026-07-28, published 2026-07-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [SNDX — Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-07-12, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ALHC — Alignment Healthcare, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALHC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CDW — CDW Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDW/): resolved played out 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [FN — Fabrinet](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [LILAK — Liberty Latin America Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILAK/): resolved played out 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [MTRN — Materion Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTRN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [TH — Target Hospitality Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UCTT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [VERU — Veru Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERU/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [EVH — Evolent Health, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-29, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [LGIH — LGI Homes, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGIH/): resolved played out 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-26, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [M — Macy's Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/M/): resolved played out 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MYE — Myers Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYE/): resolved played out 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MYGN — Myriad Genetics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NEO — NeoGenomics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-06-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NOK — Nokia Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NOK/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NUTX — Nutex Health Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUTX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-07-02, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [REAX — The Real Brokerage, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/REAX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-07-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SMCI — Super Micro Computer, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMCI/): resolved played out 2026-07-27, published 2026-05-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [VICR — Vicor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VICR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-27, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AFRM — Affirm Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AFRM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRCY/): resolved played out 2026-07-23, published 2026-07-06, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANW/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Compounder. - [BAND — Bandwidth Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAND/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [GCMG — GCM Grosvenor Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCMG/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-07-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [MMYT — MakeMyTrip Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMYT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [XXI — Twenty One Capital, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XXI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-05-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [ALGT — Allegiant Travel Company](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-22, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Special situation. - [FROG — JFrog Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FROG/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-22, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [YETI — YETI Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YETI/): resolved played out 2026-07-22, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AGYS — Agilysys, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGYS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-22, published 2026-06-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [RARE — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RARE/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-22, published 2026-07-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BULL — Webull Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BULL/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-05-06, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [TWLO — Twilio Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWLO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-21, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [ZBIO — Zenas BioPharma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBIO/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-07-02, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BTGO — BitGo Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTGO/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CORT — Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CORT/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CPIX — Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CPIX/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-05-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PLUG — Plug Power, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLUG/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-04-26, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [W — Wayfair Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/W/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-21, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AMC — Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMC/): resolved played out 2026-07-20, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AMKR — Amkor Technology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMKR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BB — BlackBerry Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BB/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [CLS — Celestica, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ENPH — Enphase Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENPH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-05-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SANA — Sana Biotechnology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANA/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-07-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SPRY — ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPRY/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-20, published 2026-06-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FWRD — Forward Air Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FWRD/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [EXTR — Extreme Networks, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXTR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MARA/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-04-24, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PDFS — PDF Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PDFS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [STM — STMicroelectronics N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TMC — TMC the metals company Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TMC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KMX — CarMax Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMX/): resolved played out 2026-07-15, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [LEGN — Legend Biotech Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LEGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-15, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [BBY — Best Buy Company, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBY/): resolved played out 2026-07-14, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CLPT — ClearPoint Neuro, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLPT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-14, published 2026-06-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NXT — Nextpower Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-13, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [PD — PagerDuty, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PD/): resolved played out 2026-07-13, published 2026-06-07, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [JOBY — Joby Aviation, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JOBY/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-13, published 2026-05-28, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [STUB — StubHub Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STUB/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-13, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [WING — Wingstop Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WING/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-13, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMD/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [OXM — Oxford Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OXM/): resolved played out 2026-07-09, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PNRG — PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PNRG/): resolved played out 2026-07-09, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [NEXA — Nexa Resources S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEXA/): resolved played out 2026-07-09, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PENG — Penguin Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENG/): resolved played out 2026-07-08, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [GCO — Genesco Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-08, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALU/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-08, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-08, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [SHOO — Steven Madden, Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHOO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-08, published 2026-05-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FORM — FormFactor, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FORM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [HIVE — HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIVE/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-07, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [KFRC — Kforce Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KFRC/): resolved played out 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOS/): resolved played out 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [LGN — Legence Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RMBS — Rambus Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMBS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [VSH — Vishay Intertechnology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVL/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IMOS — ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMOS/): resolved played out 2026-07-06, published 2026-06-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [LPG — Dorian Lpg Ltd](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LPG/): resolved played out 2026-07-06, published 2026-05-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies Group](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTDR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CIEN — Ciena Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CIEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FLEX — Flex Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLEX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FPS — Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FPS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-05-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEEL/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-04-28, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [MTSI — MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTSI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PI — Impinj, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PI/): resolved played out 2026-07-06, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SAIL — SailPoint, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAIL/): resolved played out 2026-07-06, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [VIAV — Viavi Solutions Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIAV/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ATI — ATI Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [KYMR — Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KYMR/): resolved played out 2026-07-02, published 2026-06-26, published kill line did not fire. Conviction NONE, archetype Defensive. - [LRCX — Lam Research Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRCX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-06-18, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONTO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TNGX — Tango Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNGX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MYRG — MYR Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYRG/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-03, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AESI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AMN — AMN Healthcare Services](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMN/): resolved played out 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CCJ — Cameco Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCJ/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-01, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [HUT — Hut 8 Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-01, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ALTO — Alto Ingredients, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALTO/): resolved played out 2026-07-01, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SXC — Suncoke Energy Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SXC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-01, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SYRE — Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYRE/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-30, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [FAC — Factorial Energy Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FAC/): resolved played out 2026-06-30, published 2026-06-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [AMSC — American Superconductor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMSC/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-29, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CLSK — CleanSpark, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLSK/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-29, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTBT/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-29, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SHLS — Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHLS/): resolved played out 2026-06-26, published 2026-05-18, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [PSNL — Personalis, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSNL/): resolved played out 2026-06-25, published 2026-05-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [CEVA — CEVA, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEVA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-25, published 2026-04-26, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TLRY — Tilray Brands, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLRY/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-25, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RGTI — Rigetti Computing, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RGTI/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADPT/): resolved played out 2026-06-24, published 2026-06-11, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [GENI — Genius Sports Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GENI/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-06-09, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBR/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [QUIK — QuickLogic Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUIK/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [TSHA — Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSHA/): resolved played out 2026-06-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [NBIS — Nebius Group N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBIS/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-23, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [VRT — Vertiv Holdings Co](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VRT/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-23, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [OKTA — Okta, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKTA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [SNOW — Snowflake Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNOW/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BFLY/): resolved played out 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-11, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [DXCM — DexCom, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXCM/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-09, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [MGTX — MeiraGTx Holdings plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGTX/): resolved played out 2026-06-17, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ZETA — Zeta Global Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZETA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-17, published 2026-06-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [CDNL — Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNL/): resolved played out 2026-06-17, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BLZE — Backblaze, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLZE/): resolved played out 2026-06-16, published 2026-05-08, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IPX — IperionX Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPX/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-16, published 2026-05-27, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [OPEN — Opendoor Technologies Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPEN/): resolved played out 2026-06-16, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PTEN — Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-16, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [RVMD — Revolution Medicines, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RVMD/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [PRM — Perimeter Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRM/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [TBLA — Taboola.com Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBLA/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-08, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ALGM — Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGM/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AUGO — Aura Minerals Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUGO/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [CECO — CECO Environmental Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CECO/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [DIOD — Diodes Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DIOD/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [FIVN — Five9, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIVN/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [JBLU — JetBlue Airways Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBLU/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MCHP — Microchip Technology Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCHP/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MRAM — Everspin Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRAM/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PCT — PureCycle Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCT/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [POWI — Power Integrations, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWI/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [STRO — Sutro Biopharma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRO/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TER — Teradyne, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TER/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TRVI — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRVI/): resolved played out 2026-06-12, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [DRTS — Alpha Tau Medical Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRTS/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-05-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TWST — Twist Bioscience Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWST/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [AZZ — AZZ Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZZ/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INDI/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-10, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RIOT — Riot Platforms, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RIOT/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-09, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CLFD — Clearfield, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLFD/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-09, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [INOD — Innodata Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INOD/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-09, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [QCOM — QUALCOMM Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QCOM/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-27, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [WEST — Westrock Coffee Company](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEST/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-26, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PURR — Hyperliquid Strategies Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PURR/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-22, published 2026-05-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [WTI — W&T Offshore, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WTI/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-21, published 2026-05-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [WULF — TeraWulf Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WULF/): resolved played out 2026-05-19, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [GLW — Corning Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLW/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-19, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVDA/): resolved played out 2026-05-19, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RKLB/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-19, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [MP — MP Materials Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MP/): resolved played out 2026-05-18, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [COHR — Coherent Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHR/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-15, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [GLXY — Galaxy Digital Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLXY/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-08, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IONQ — IonQ, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IONQ/): resolved played out 2026-05-05, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SGMT — Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SGMT/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-01, published 2026-04-28, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [APLD — Applied Digital Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APLD/): resolved invalidated 2026-04-29, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. --- ## Dossiers ### HUM — Humana Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Margin-over-volume Medicare Advantage reset reclaimed its trend: the 2026-08-24 close of $386.61 is 2.0% above the prior session and back clear of the last 50-day value observed ($378.33, 2026-08-12), with RSI(14) at 64.6 from 52.5. Revision flow idle since Bernstein's 08-14 Buy/$425, and the 2027 number now has a venue — a 2026-12-10 investor update — past both the 09-08/10 conference window and the 11-06 print. The narrative is maturing. Kill line: A daily close below $372 takes out the 2026-08-11 close of $372.82 and turns the 2026-08-12 reclaim of the 50-day into a failed one; a weekly close below $353 removes the 2026-08-05 low of $353.69. Secondary: the 2026-09-08/10 conference window passing with no participation release and no intermediate 2027 figure. --- ### IRDM — Iridium Communications Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IRDM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: M&A & special situations, Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Deal-arb: $27.00 cash plus a collared RKLB stock leg marks a $54.00 package against the 2026-08-24 close of $47.30, a 12.41% discount. The S-4/A filed 2026-08-24 finally dated the special meeting (2026-09-24), but RKLB at $68.28 sits just 1.16% above the $67.50 collar floor — below it the package floats one-for-one with the acquirer. Kill line: A weekly close below $46.00 — 14.8% under the $54.00 contractual package and 5.7% above the ~$43.52 undisturbed pre-deal reference — marks break risk rather than collar mechanics; secondary conditions are sustained RKLB closes under the $67.50 collar floor, or the 2026-09-24 special meeting adjourning without an adoption vote. --- ### MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRCY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-23 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-06 Themes: Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report. Kill line: A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows. --- ### MU — Micron Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Contract-annuity leg intact — 16 take-or-pay deals, ~$100B minimum contracted revenue to late 2030 — but on 2026-08-24 the tape found a counter-narrative: reports the White House may let Apple source DRAM from CXMT ahead of Xi's ~09-24 visit knocked MU from $966.78 to $910.43 and erased the $10B research-lab pop. Nvidia 2026-08-26 is the only in-window binary; FQ4 lands 2026-09-29. Kill line: A daily close below $868 hands back the entire August rebound off the 2026-08-11 close of $868.52 and returns price into the July range; a weekly close below $829 additionally breaks the 2026-08-04 gap-up shelf. Secondary: a formal US decision clearing Apple to source DRAM from CXMT. --- ### OKTA — Okta, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. --- ### RXO — RXO, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. --- ### ARCB — ArcBest Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARCB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: The twice-tested $135.76/$135.89 shelf lost on the 2026-08-24 close of $134.45, a 4.2% drop taken with the whole transport complex after Trump's 50% Canada auto/truck/parts/steel tariff post. No issuer catalyst until Q3 results ~2026-10-28; the 2026-08-28 weekly close is the first gradeable test of whether the break holds. Kill line: A weekly close below $135.75 confirms the break of the twice-tested 08-11/08-20 shelf and leaves price under every disclosed August insider strike including Anderson's $134.87; secondary break if 2026-09-01 ISM and the ~2026-09-15 Cass August shipments pass without arresting July's -4.8% decline. --- ### ATEX — Anterix Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: Industrial power & grid, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 2026-08-21 reclaim at $93.25 gave back to $90.38 on 2026-08-24 with RSI(14) at 29.8, the $88.20 shelf still holding on closes. No spectrum sale agreement announced in the 126 days since 2026-04-21 and no company item filed since 2026-08-11; the ~2026-08-26 FINRA print for the 2026-08-14 settlement is the only dated read inside 30 days besides the 2026-09-21 buyback expiry. Kill line: A weekly close below $88.20 loses the shelf reclaimed on 2026-08-21 and re-opens the 2026-08-20 close of $85.31; secondary, 2026-09-21 passing with the $250M authorisation lapsed, $226.7M unused, and still no spectrum sale agreement announced since 2026-04-21. --- ### CNC — Centene Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Margin-repair guide raise of 2026-07-28 stays fully priced: the 2026-08-24 close of $65.65 is 2.7% under the 2026-08-14 close of $67.47 and 4.5% below the $68.72 52-week high, with no analyst target moved since Argus on 2026-08-11. maturing; the next company-controlled datapoint is Q3, now calendared 2026-10-27. Kill line: A weekly close below $63 breaks the post-print sequence and confirms the failed retest of the 2026-08-14 close of $67.47; a weekly close below $56 would surrender the July range. Secondary: the September 8–10 healthcare-conference window passing with no incremental 2027 rate commentary while price stays under $67.47. --- ### DAVE — Dave Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DAVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Beat-and-raise fully modelled by 13 firms and sold on the day; the recovery has now stalled under $358–360 for three weeks, with the 2026-08-24 close at $354.79 and RSI(14) at 31.8. No rating action since 2026-08-17 and nothing operating until Q3 around 2026-11-04 — the ~2026-08-26 short-interest print is the only dated item left in the month. Kill line: A weekly close below $308 loses the 2026-08-10 post-print floor close of $308.82 and the 2026-06-18 breakout close of $314.44, leaving the 200-day printed at $250.45 on 2026-08-14 as the next reference; secondarily, the ~2026-08-26 short-interest report cutting the 2.31M-share base while price stays under the $358–360 zone. --- ### DELL — Dell Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DELL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: One-session reclaim failed: the 2026-08-24 close of $433.19 is back under the 2026-08-11 shelf of $440.97, RSI(14) 41.3, 12.4% below the 08-13 high of $494.51. Morgan Stanley's 08-24 raise to $434 sets a target at the market while Evercore sits at $550. Nvidia 08-26 and Dell's Q2 FY27 on 09-01 are the binaries; ISG operating margin under the memory step-up stays untested until then. Kill line: A weekly close below $419 surrenders the July–August advance and re-enters the $405.00–$419.06 band where Silver Lake affiliates sold in July. Secondary: ISG operating margin printing under Q1 FY27's 10.5% at the 2026-09-01 Q2 FY27 report. --- ### HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. --- ### HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: The one green close failed: 2026-08-24 closed $52.43, undercutting the 08-20 low close of $52.89 and marking seven of eight sessions lower off the 2026-08-13 high of $59.82, with no dated HPE news since 2026-08-19. The 2026-09-02 Q3 print is the binary — screens carry ~$0.93–0.94 EPS on ~$11.97B against a $0.88–0.93 / $11.5–12.1B guide. The narrative is saturated. Kill line: A daily close below $50.24 takes out the early-August shelf and leaves no August structure under price. Secondary: a 2026-09-02 Q3 print with revenue under $11.5B, or FY26 non-GAAP EPS merely reaffirmed at $3.35–3.45 instead of raised. --- ### JBHT — J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBHT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The $267 floor broke: the 2026-08-24 close of $259.88 is ~5.7% below the prior session, on the day Washington set Canada auto, truck and parts tariffs to 50% from 2027-01-01. The freight-recovery re-rating now has no company datapoint until an estimated 2026-10-15, with a 2026-09-20 quiet period in between, leaving the leg on third-party rate data alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $259 converts the 2026-08-24 break of the $267.24 June floor from a policy gap into trend; secondary condition is the estimated 2026-09-09 DAT monthly release printing August dry van contract linehaul under $2.39/mile. --- ### LSTR — Landstar System, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Supply-driven truckload repricing still unconfirmed on the weekly tape, but declines decelerated: FTR Week 33 (ended 2026-08-21) showed dry van -2c vs -7c prior, reefer +1.3c, loads +0.8%, against truck postings +4.4% and the demand index at 2026 lows. The 2026-08-24 Canada 50% auto/steel tariff headline hit the flatbed and heavy-haul mix directly; shares closed $179.92 versus $186.58 on 2026-08-21. Kill line: A weekly close below $167 takes out the 2026-07-30 low of $167.58 and the 200-day average marked at $166.56 on 2026-08-09 together, leaving the $119.32 52-week low as the next published shelf. Secondary: DAT's ~2026-09-09 August release showing van contract linehaul lower month over month after July's record +13 cents/mile. --- ### MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the $250-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging. Kill line: a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints. --- ### NTAP — NetApp, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NTAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Three sell-side targets near $210 in eleven days (Goldman 08-13, Citi 08-18, Evercore 08-24) have stopped moving the tape: $186.86 on 2026-08-24, 9.8% below the $207.08 high, RSI 46.4, with the 20-analyst average target $186.31 sitting at the price and 12 of 20 at Hold. The 2026-09-02 Q1 FY27 print is the binary. The narrative is saturated. Kill line: A weekly close below $183 gives up the July–early-August shelf near $182.92 and the entire post-2026-08-10 upgrade advance; secondary is the 2026-09-02 Q1 FY27 print landing inside the $1.750–$1.900B revenue guide with FY27 reiterated at $7.325–$7.575B and no gross-margin raise. --- ### OSCR — Oscar Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OSCR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Still maturing and range-bound: the 2026-08-24 close of $31.81 is the sixth session without a new high since the 2026-08-14 closing high of $32.76, and it sits 4.6% above the $30.40 consensus mean target. Short interest fell to 17.83M from 18.74M the prior month, so the consolidation is not covering-fed. The 2026-09-16 Investor Day is the only dated estimate driver. Kill line: A weekly close below $30.11 gives back the 2026-08-05 print-eve close and returns price inside the 2026-08-06 gap-down; a weekly close below $26.54 retraces the entire post-print reaction. Secondary: the 2026-09-16 Investor Day passing with no 2027 membership range or premium framework. --- ### SEZL — Sezzle Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEZL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Growth leg was retired by management's own 2026-08-06 H2 guide and the −33.89% gap; only a re-rating argument is live at 19.68x forward on the 2026-08-24 close of $117.93. That close lost the $118.02/$118.00 shelf with RSI(14) at 21.5, $129.87 untouched since 2026-08-17, and no Sezzle-generated datapoint until ~2026-11-05 — the nearest dated event is Affirm's 2026-08-27 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $117 forfeits the post-gap floor set by the 2026-08-18 close of $117.18 and opens the $100 round number ahead of the 200-day at $95.27. Secondary: the 2026-08-27 Affirm print and the 2026-09-15/2026-09-17 conferences passing with $129.87 still unreclaimed. --- ### SIMO — Silicon Motion Technology Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIMO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Controller mix re-rating still rests on the untouched 2026-07-29 Q3 guide of $519–541M against ~$431.8M consensus, but the 2026-08-24 close of $243.18 gave back the whole 08-19/08-21 bounce and sits on the $238.51 shelf after a complex-wide selloff on reports Washington may clear Apple to buy CXMT/YMTC memory. No company-dated evidence until ~2026-11-04; the 2026-08-26 NVIDIA print is the only marker in the window. Kill line: A weekly close below $238 breaks the 2026-08-13 shelf at $238.51, revisited on 2026-08-24. Secondary: the September Trump–Xi meeting passing with a published Apple allowance for CXMT DRAM or YMTC NAND and no company-dated rebuttal before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 report. --- ### SNX — TD SYNNEX Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Second-order AI re-rating still unconfirmed by company data, and the tape has now taken it back: the 2026-08-24 close of $243.65 leaves a three-month price change of +1.7% with RSI(14) at 27.3. The 11-analyst panel has not revised since 2026-07-22, across five external events. NVDA on 2026-08-26 re-prices the complex a month before TD SYNNEX discloses anything. Kill line: A weekly close below $234 forfeits the $235.67 shelf unbroken since 2026-07-08 and completes the round-trip of the advance off the 2026-06-25 print. Secondary: NVDA 2026-08-26, HPE 2026-09-02 and Dell 2026-09-03 all passing with no close back above $255.70. --- ### STX — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings. Kill line: A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. --- ### TXG — 10x Genomics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TXG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: First lower close of the run: 2026-08-24 at $63.80, 2.0% under the 2026-08-21 record close of $65.12, with price still above every published target (high mark Stephens $65, 08-12; 16-analyst average $49.54). No company item since the 08-06 Q2 print and no rating action in twelve sessions, so the leg runs on a news vacuum until the ~09-09 short-interest file, with no company checkpoint before ~2026-11-05. Kill line: A weekly close below $58.57 gives back the 2026-08-19 reclaim of the prior record close and returns price into the 2026-07-21 to 08-03 range; secondary: the ~2026-09-09 short-interest file showing the 13.22%-of-float base materially cut while the panel stays 10 Hold with nothing published above $65. --- ### UMC — United Microelectronic Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. --- ### WDC — Western Digital Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar. --- ### XMTR — Xometry, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XMTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: HELD Themes: Cyclical industrials, Physical AI & robotics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: JP Morgan assumed coverage Overweight with a $120 target on 2026-08-24 — the highest posted on the name — and the close only moved $83.59 to $84.58, a fourth straight session under the $85.00 June follow-on level. Seven positive sell-side actions in fourteen sessions have produced no bid. Nothing company-sourced until ~2026-11-03; ISM on 2026-09-01 is the only independent read. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 surrenders the post-follow-on structure beneath the $85.00 June placement level, with no company disclosure due until ~2026-11-03; secondary conditions are August ISM Manufacturing under 52 on 2026-09-01 with New Orders below 50, or a downgrade or target cut out of the 2026-08-05 raise cohort. --- ### XPO — XPO, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XPO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Record 79.9% adjusted LTL operating ratio and a raised full-year guide (2026-07-30) now sit against two negative July industry prints — ATA tonnage -0.5% YoY and Cass shipments -4.8% YoY. The $197.01 shelf gave way on the 2026-08-24 close of $191.99, leaving the rising 200-day of $186.50 as the next reference. The ~2026-09-03 August LTL 8-K is the first company-sourced volume read since July. Kill line: A weekly close below $186 breaks the rising 200-day that has floored the name all year, after the $197.01 shelf was lost on 2026-08-24; secondary condition is the ~2026-09-03 August LTL 8-K showing North American shipments per day decelerating under +5% or turning negative. --- ### CRWV — CoreWeave, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWV/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Post-print repricing is holding but fading: the 2026-08-12 gap to $107.73 is unfilled after closes of $106.29 and $105.26, RSI 71.1. Q2 printed $128M adjusted operating income against a $30–90M guide, and the $2.6B facility closed 2026-08-10 at SOFR+5.50% partly answers the funding question — with ~5-year paper against ~3-year contracts. NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 print sets the neocloud tape. Kill line: A daily close below $93.65 fills the 2026-08-12 gap and gives back the 200-day mark measured 2026-08-10; secondarily, FY26 adjusted operating income trimmed from the $960M–$1.15B guide, or a new facility priced materially wider than the SOFR+5.50% struck on 2026-08-10. --- ### HOOD — Robinhood Markets, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HOOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The 2026-08-21 breakout above the $97.28/$98.87 band held its weekly close at $108.13, then gave 4.2% back to $103.62 on 2026-08-24 — still above the band, follow-through above $109.25 rejected. The dated binary is the 2:15 p.m. ET cloture vote on H.R. 3633 on 2026-09-15, needing 60 votes against 53 Republican seats; August operating data around 2026-09-10 is the only company print before it. Kill line: A weekly close below $97 forfeits the 2026-08-21 breakout above the $97.28/$98.87 band and reopens the $86.21 (2026-07-30) / $85.30 (2026-08-03) shelf. Secondary: the 2026-09-15 Senate cloture vote on H.R. 3633 failing or being pulled without a rescheduled date. --- ### UUUU — Energy Fuels Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UUUU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Mine-to-magnet milestone cadence still driving the tape, but paying less each time: the 2026-08-19 terbium qualification bought one session (08-21 close $15.14, +8.92%) then faded to $14.88 on 08-24, back under the 08-14 shelf of $15.10. ASM implementation 2026-08-28 is the last dated corporate step; rare earths were ~$0.1M of $25.108M Q2 revenue and White Mesa's uranium circuit stays paused into Q4-2026. Kill line: A daily close below $13.90 gives back the 2026-08-21 reclaim in full and re-exposes the 2026-08-06 shelf near $12.90, with the 2026-07-29 close of $10.74 beneath it. --- ### AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The $110 shelf that defined the August leg is gone: the 2026-08-24 close of $107.63 fully unwinds the 2026-08-04 policy gap (pre-gap close $110.21), three sessions after a second $600,000,000 ATM was filed on 2026-08-21. Q2 revenue +86% YoY and a 115%–144% Q3 growth guide are intact, but the equity narrative is late-cycle with no company-controlled catalyst before Q3 (~2026-11-05). The narrative is saturated. Kill line: A weekly close below $104 takes out the 2026-08-24 intraday low of $104.50 and leaves no part of the August advance intact. Secondary: the FCC September open-meeting tentative agenda (~2026-09-03) publishing with no transceiver-import item, which removes the policy option entirely. --- ### AEHR — Aehr Test Systems URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Wafer-level burn-in toll on AI silicon: FY2027 guided $130–150M against $50.0M in FY2026, guide unamended. But the 2026-07-21 shelf at $98.91 gave way on the 2026-08-24 close of $96.43 — a fifth straight lower close from $145.61 (2026-08-17), now under the $110 low end of published targets. 2026-08-25 Jefferies and 2026-09-10 Lake Street are the dated chances to name a second hyperscaler. Kill line: A weekly close below $96.43 confirms the loss of the 2026-07-21 shelf at $98.91, breached on the 2026-08-24 daily close, leaving $70.00 (2026-07-28) as the next dated closing reference. Secondary: 2026-09-10 Lake Street passing with no second distinct hyperscaler named for AI-ASIC wafer-level burn-in, after 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-25. --- ### AMSC — American Superconductor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40 shelf near the early-July ~$35 area with the theme matured to a value-trap shape — the setup does not clear until it bases into the ~Aug 5 Q1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 confirms the break of the ~$34.50 early-July shelf and opens the declining 200-DMA / $25.28 52-week-low path; further confirmed if the ~Aug 5 Q1 print shows 12-month backlog contracting from ~$280M or the grid-power theme flips to saturated. --- ### APLD — Applied Digital Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-04-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: BTC→AI landlord whose operating build (>1 GW contracted, ~$31B backlog, 175 MW live) has decoupled from an equity that halved from $49.65 to a $25.79 low, now bouncing off the $25.56 April base into a binary FY26 print on 2026-07-27. Morgan Stanley's cautious $36.50 Equal-Weight initiation lands the day before. The setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 loses the $25.56 April base floor and opens the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an ATM reactivation or equity raise disclosed on or after the 2026-07-27 FY26 call, a Polaris Forge lease cancellation, or a CoreWeave counterparty downgrade. --- ### ASML — ASML Holding N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASML/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The $1,740 July band floor is being tested: the 2026-08-24 close of $1,740.13 sits on it after the $1,805 shelf reclaim failed. Consensus has been flat at $2,195 for a fourth reading, nothing ASML-dated resolves before 2026-10-14, and the 2026-08-26 Nvidia print is the only input before the week settles. Kill line: A weekly close below $1740 surrenders the July band floor, confirms the failed reclaim of the $1,805 shelf from the 2026-08-14 settlement at $1,844.08 and re-exposes the $1,686.01 late-July low; secondary condition is the 2026-08-26 Nvidia print passing with no close back above $1,805 and no ASML-dated event until 2026-10-14. --- ### ASTS — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Deployment-cadence leg goes dead: the 2026-08-24 close of $62.35 (-9.2%, per GuruFocus) erased the 08-21 reclaim and broke below the 08-20 intraday low of $62.89, with BlueBirds 14/15/16 still undated 15 days after "ready to ship shortly." At $62.35 the tape prices below even Barclays' $65 Underweight target and below the $79.57 conversion price on the 2034 notes. Kill line: A weekly close below $56 loses the early-August low of $55.74 and confirms the post-print leg is extending; secondary: no dated BlueBird 14/15/16 launch release by 2026-09-30, or beta service re-dated past 2026-12-31. --- ### AVGO — Broadcom Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: The three-session bounce failed at the 200-day: $368.45 on 2026-08-21 gave way to $358.76 on 2026-08-24 with RSI(14) at 18.4 and no company-specific headline — a fourth straight close under a rising 200-day marked $369.20. The unwithdrawn $29.4B/$16.0B guide meets the tape after the close on 2026-09-02; NVDA prints 08-26. Kill line: A weekly close below $340 confirms the twice-failed reclaim of the $370 July shelf and the rising 200-day SMA marked at $369.20 on 2026-08-24. Secondary: Q3 FY26 on 2026-09-02 printing AI semiconductor revenue under the guided $16.0B or total revenue under $29.4B. --- ### AXTI — AXT Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AXTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The prior break level failed: 2026-08-24 closed $65.40, roughly a third below the 2026-08-17 intraday $97.79 and back at the $64.25 April secondary price, erasing almost the whole post-Q2 gap while contracted InP demand keeps building. The 2026-08-26 NVIDIA print is a sector event; the first company-specific number is not until 2026-10-29. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 completes the round trip of the 2026-07-31 post-Q2 gap and takes out the $64.25 April secondary price. Secondary: the 2026-08-26 NVIDIA print passing without a reclaim of the $73.8 shelf, or the Lumentum $43,500,000 initial deposit unconfirmed past ~2026-09-04. --- ### CCJ — Cameco Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCJ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Nuclear-uranium theme maturing and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Q2 print 2026-07-31 (EPS est $0.26, −49% YoY) is the binary; no setup until a higher-low reclaim of ~$104. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 turns the twice-broken structure into a trend, losing the July shelf and opening the $68.96 base; confirmed fundamentally by a Q2 delivery guide cut below 29–32M lb or a realized-price guide under $85/lb on the ~2026-07-31 print. A failed reclaim at ~$104 on thin volume marks a third lower high. --- ### CEG — Constellation Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: Post-print reclaim still failing: $282.50 (2026-08-14) is the only close above the broken $281 shelf, and 08-24 printed $273.43 thirteen sessions after the beat-and-raise. Seven sell-side cuts since 07-27 against one raise, PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction capped at $325/MW-day, and the ~2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group deadline is the next dated resolution. Kill line: A weekly close below $267 hands back the entire post-print advance — the pre-print close was $267.25 on 2026-08-04 — and confirms 2026-08-14's $282.50 as a failed retest of the $281 shelf. Secondary: the ~2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group remit landing with no carve-out for co-located or behind-the-meter nuclear. --- ### COIN — Coinbase Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Fourth session of the CLARITY repricing gave ground: adjusted close $179.48 on 2026-08-24 vs $186.49 on 08-21, RSI(14) 67.3 from 74.9, with the $160.20 gap floor still intact. The 08-24 tokenized-stocks launch on Base (Chainlink oracle, non-U.S. only) adds product; the 2026-09-15 cloture vote remains the only dated re-rating before the ~early-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $160 surrenders the 2026-08-19/20/21 policy gap (closes $160.20, $172.44, $186.49) and points back at the $139.11–$145.60 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-15 cloture motion on H.R. 3633 being pulled or finishing short of 60 votes. --- ### CRCL — Circle Internet Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Still a policy trade, but the first company-level support in weeks arrived: Bernstein's 2026-08-24 note reports USDC supply +$1.7B in a week after ~six months flat, reiterating $140 while Susquehanna raised to $92 on a Neutral. Circle has published nothing since 2026-08-05 and the tape stalled at $87.72 with RSI(14) 82.0. The 2026-09-15 cloture vote and 2026-09-16 Arc mainnet are the binaries. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 unwinds the 2026-08-19 close of $78.59 that started the leg and gives back the 200-day reclaimed 2026-08-21, reopening the $70.80 50-day and the $66.67–$67.05 shelf; secondarily, CLARITY cloture failing 2026-09-15 with no SEC/CFTC substitute named, or Arc mainnet slipping past 2026-09-16 with no replacement date. --- ### IONQ — IonQ, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IONQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-05-05 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Broken gov-capital quantum leg, now publicly capitulated: seven-plus down weeks, an inverse-ETF complex up to +108%, and Cramer warning it off air on 2026-07-23. Washed out but not based, heading into a binary Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) that referees the disputed Pentagon-revenue composition. No edge in a fresh long at current levels. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 confirms the breakdown extends toward the $30 shelf and ends the base-building case; a reclaim of $44 on volume is the first sign the leg is repairable. Secondary: a Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) with revenue under the $65M guide low or an FY cut from $260–270M. --- ### IREN — IREN Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IREN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Neocloud re-rate has fully round-tripped: $33.62 close 7/17, -42% in 30 days, late-May Microsoft breakout base surrendered. Contracts intact ($9.7B MSFT, prepaid tranches) but Q3 AI revenue was only $17.3M vs a $3.4B ARR ambition, and Nvidia/Meta moving into direct compute sales plus the $800M CEO grant fight have flipped the theme to a live de-rating. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 completes the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate and puts the spring base in the $20s in play. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian tender awarded entirely to CDC/AirTrunk/NextDC/Stack, or Q4 FY26 AI cloud revenue failing to scale meaningfully above the $17.3M Q3 level. --- ### LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LITE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Optical-content-per-rack leg intact, but the cohort just repriced on a peer's dilution rather than on anything Lumentum said: the 2026-08-24 close of $830.17 sits 1.2% over the 2026-08-11 shelf at $820.59 after Applied Optoelectronics' $600M ATM took 5% out of the name. Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print after the close is the borrowed binary; no company-reported number until early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $820 loses the 2026-08-11 pre-print shelf at $820.59, which held closing tests on 08-19, 08-20 and again on 08-24; secondary condition is the 2026-08-26 Nvidia call passing with no 2027 networking-content detail, leaving no priced event until the early-November FQ1 print. --- ### META — Meta Platforms, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/META/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: Capex-into-revenue leg bought ~28% under the high while an Oakland courtroom sets the daily print. The 2026-08-24 close of $559.02 is the first close back above the $556 shelf broken 2026-08-19, RSI(14) 37.4. Executive testimony — Zuckerberg, Mosseri, Li — lands inside the six-week trial calendar. saturated: 62 analysts, zero Sells, average target $754.14 against a $559 tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $524 forfeits the 2026-07-30 low at $524.49 and re-exposes the $520.26 52-week low; secondary: Meta Connect on 2026-09-23 to 09-24 passing with no revenue-attached product or named external compute counterparty against the $130-145B capex guide. --- ### MSTR — Strategy Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Eighth straight week with no bitcoin bought: the 2026-08-24 8-K shows ~$2.01B of common sold at an average near $109.88 into the rally, with 100% routed to STRC buybacks, a $5.1B USD Reserve and a new $1.59B "USD Cash" pool. Credit workout, not accumulation. RSI(14) 72.0 at the 2026-08-24 close of $122.63; 2026-09-08 STRC-par target is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $104 surrenders the reclaimed July shelf and the entire post-summit advance, putting the 2026-08-14 close of $93.04 back in play; secondary confirmation is 2026-09-08 passing with STRC still under its $100 stated amount and no bitcoin purchases recorded. --- ### MTUM URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit. Kill line: A weekly close below $296 (loses the mid-July shelf) opens the gap toward the rising 200-day near $270 and confirms the AI-memory leg the fund now expresses is in a full unwind; an Intel miss on 2026-07-23 or a soft Lam Research guide on 2026-07-29 that extends the semi-cap derating seals it. --- ### NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NNE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. The setup does not clear until a base forms above $22. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.78 confirms the fresh 52-week low as a breakdown rather than a washout and opens undiscovered downside; secondarily, any 424B or 8-K disclosing ATM share sales into a bounce confirms dilution is capping every rally. --- ### OKLO — Oklo Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKLO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $38.83 hands back the entire three-session recovery off the 2026-07-29 low and returns the $36.61 52-week low to the tape; secondary break if the 2026-08-07 Q2 call passes with no dated Groves first-criticality schedule. --- ### PL — Planet Labs PBC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Every reported close since 8/14 has stepped down — $24.69 to $22.17 on 8/20 — the 50-day/200-day gap widened to $25.53 vs $26.55, and the 8/20 low of $21.57 sat four cents above the 8/3 close. The unrevised 6/4 guide (FY27 $425–441M, Q2 $102–107M) is the last figure not marked down with the tape; the 9/3 Q2 FY27 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.53 hands back the 8/4 gap and the 8/3 pre-gap close, reopening the $19.16–$19.83 July shelf; secondarily, the 9/3 Q2 FY27 print cutting the $425–441M FY27 range, or Q2 revenue landing under the $102–107M guide. --- ### PLTR — Palantir Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 2026-08-21 breakout close of $179.94 did not hold: 2026-08-24 closed $175.89 (-2.25%), back inside the $171.04–$179.01 August range, with RSI(14) down to 60.9 from 79.0. No company input until roughly 2026-11-02, so the ~08-25 FINRA short report, Nvidia's 08-26 print and Warsh's 08-28 Jackson Hole keynote decide whether the 2026-08-14 leg high of $180.18 gets taken. Kill line: A daily close below $171 breaks the floor of the $171.04–$179.01 August range that the 2026-08-24 close of $175.89 returned into and makes $179.94 a false high; secondary: Nvidia's 08-26 print, the ~08-25 FINRA report and Warsh's 08-28 keynote all passing with no close above the 2026-08-14 leg high of $180.18. --- ### QBTS — D-Wave Quantum Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QBTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Coverage supply keeps producing one-day rallies that do not hold: BMO's 2026-08-21 initiation at $35 closed shares $20.39 (+8.46%) on no company release, and 2026-08-24 gave it all back at $18.68 (-8.39%), also on no release. Three named counterparties since 2026-07-27 still carry no disclosed dollar value; 2026-08-27 Deutsche Bank is the last dated forum before Q3 (~2026-11-05). Kill line: A daily close below $17.84 ends the higher-low sequence off the 2026-07-29 low of $16.18 and reopens the pre-AT&T $16.21 shelf. Secondary: the 2026-08-27 Deutsche Bank appearance passing with no dollar value attached to the AT&T, Nasdaq Verafin or DOCOMO agreements. --- ### QUBT — Quantum Computing Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 2026-08-21 group bounce round-tripped in one session — the 2026-08-24 close of $8.24 gave back the move to $8.92, with IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave all off ~8.5% the same day. Price sits two cents above the $8.22 shelf, under a 50-day at $8.88 and 200-day at $9.71 that were both falling on 2026-08-21. No company-dated news since the 2026-08-10 Q2 print; the bid is entirely sector-driven. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.22 returns price to the July 2026 $7.30–$8.22 range with the 50-day and 200-day both declining from their 2026-08-21 readings; secondarily an S-3 takedown, 424B5 or disclosed ATM usage dated after 2026-08-10. --- ### RGTI — Rigetti Computing, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RGTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.53 takes out the 52-week low and confirms the quantum pure-play theme has gone from saturated to dead, with no bid until a company-specific contract event; corroborating tells would be an ATM-issuance 8-K filed into any bounce, or the ~2026-08-10 Q2 print passing without a named Fortune-500 Cepheus customer. --- ### SMR — NuScale Power Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Funded wait on one unsigned ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement, with the company silent for twenty days since the 2026-08-05 Q2 release. The 2026-08-24 close of $9.05 gave back most of the bounce off the 2026-08-18 floor at $8.64 and RSI(14) slipped to 45.8; the only dated item inside a week — 2026-08-27 — belongs to a rival design's licence docket at NuScale's own prospective customer. Kill line: A daily close below $8.64 (the 2026-08-18 range floor) re-opens the 2026-07-20 close of $7.96 and the 2026-07-17 low of $7.21; secondary: 2026-08-27 passing with the Clinch River comment record closed, no NuScale site named at TVA, and still no company release after 2026-08-05. --- ### SPCX — SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPCX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Flight 14's ship catch is deferred (Musk, 2026-08-20); the mission is now a first orbital-class flight with ~20 Starlink V3, FCC window opening 2026-08-28. NVIDIA's 2026-08-24 release dated orbital compute — Starmind gen-1 on Vera Rubin NVL72 — to Q4 2027. Price sat back on the $135 IPO price at the 2026-08-24 close, with no close above $146.15 since 2026-08-12; the ~2026-09-09 tranche is the next supply test. Kill line: A weekly close below $133 puts price back inside the 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-11 shelf and reduces the 2026-08-21 reclaim of the $135 IPO price to a one-session excursion. Secondary: the ~2026-09-09 tranche passing with another lower high and still no close above $146.15. --- ### TSEM — Tower Semiconductor Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels silicon-photonics foundry leg has de-rated straight into the range where July's pre-arranged CEO sales printed: the 2026-08-24 close of $211.10 sits inside $210.33–$211.27 and 33.4% under the 2026-06-22 high, with no downgrade, no guidance change and no company disclosure dated after 2026-08-12. The 2026-08-25/26 Jefferies appearance is the first venue that can bridge the unreconciled $2.8B/$3.6B FY2028 frameworks. Kill line: A weekly close below $210 completes the round-trip beneath the $210.33–$211.27 July insider-sale range and puts price under the entire post-Q2 advance. Secondary: both the 2026-08-25/26 Jefferies and 2026-09-10 Benchmark-StoneX appearances passing with no reiteration of the $3.6B FY2028 framework. --- ### TSLA — Tesla, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Cybercab has a hard date — 2026-09-03, Austin, invite-only — but the first session to price it went down: $348.95 on 08-24 vs $362.86 on 08-21, RSI(14) back to 61.0 from 72.7. Reporting says the rollout starts with employee rides, and Polymarket prices a genuine $30,000 retail sale by year-end at 17%, from 33% in late April. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 hands back the bulk of the August advance off the $297.38 52-week low with no 2026 base beneath it; secondary condition is 2026-09-03 passing with employee and invited riders only, no disclosed Cybercab fleet count and no date named for paid public rides. --- ### VST — Vistra Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Weekly break confirmed but not extended: 2026-08-24 closed $135.66, 2.3% above the $132.66 May low that is also the 52-week floor. A Mizuho Outperform initiation at $169 and a reported CEO purchase of 2,000 shares at $135 both landed that day and neither lifted the close. AI-power narrative is saturated; nothing company-dated until ~2026-11-06. Kill line: A weekly close below $132.66 takes out the May low and the 52-week floor together, leaving no marked level beneath in this coverage window. Secondarily, a FERC order in ER26-3380-000 before the 2026-09-29 effective date confining accepted bids to new-build generation leaves the PJM backstop with no Vistra revenue attached. --- ### SNOW — Snowflake Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNOW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: The June digestion resolved upward, not downward — SNOW cleared the ~$244 June high and printed a fresh 52-week high at $284.99 before settling at $268.90 (2026-07-17). Q1 FY27 product revenue re-accelerated to +34% and the street is still chasing (RBC $313 on 2026-07-17, KeyBanc $325 on 2026-07-16, consensus $292.53). The continuation leg runs into a 5-week catalyst vacuum until the 2026-08-26 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $244 gives back the July breakout over the June swing high and returns price into the post-earnings range; secondary break: Databricks converts its $188B round (2026-07-17) into visible enterprise share loss, or the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print shows product growth back under +30% or NRR under ~120%. --- ### AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI-compute narrative re-accelerated on the 2026-07-23 analyst event — named multi-gigawatt Anthropic/OpenAI commitments, Helios rack-scale ramp, TAM lifted to $2T by 2030 — drawing a fresh upgrade cluster (Roth $650, Cantor $700, Futurum $800). Accelerating into the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print, which is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 forfeits the early-June breakout shelf and ends the acceleration leg; secondary break is the ~2026-08-04 print delivering in-line revenue with no Data Center raise while the upgrade cascade stalls and the theme rolls to saturated. --- ### ATI — ATI Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Titanium/superalloy aero-defense supplier digesting a June breakout above the reclaimed $183.30 ATH shelf: ~9% off the $204.09 high, RSI cooled to ~66, consensus PT $200.33 back above spot. Q2 lands 2026-08-06; peer CRS prints 2026-07-30 as a free read-through. maturing theme — the clean setup is a base or the post-print, not a chase into the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $183.30 converts the June breakout into a failure, opening air to the rising 50-day near $161; secondarily, a Q2 report 2026-08-06 (or CRS on 2026-07-30) that repeats Q1's shipment miss with the beat again carried by price/mix. --- ### NBIS — Nebius Group N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: GPU-neocloud narrative re-accelerated after NVIDIA disclosed a 9.3% stake (7/20) and PT raises followed (Northland $410, Baird initiates Outperform $250); Alphabet's 7/22 "demand outpaces capacity" answers the Meta-Compute bear case. The ~8/05 Q2 print is the binary that confirms the ARR ramp. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 loses the 7/18 low ($164.31) and the last shelf beneath the June breakout, reopening the $140s and confirming the Meta-Compute de-rating; a secondary break is the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print showing core AI-cloud ARR growth decelerating below the ~50% QoQ pace set in Q1. --- ### VRT — Vertiv Holdings Co URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VRT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Liquid-cooling/datacenter-power bottleneck story intact but the revision cycle has stalled — RBC cut its target and the two newest sponsors (Baird $370, KeyBanc $360 on 07-23) initiated at the bottom of the range as the theme cooled to maturing; Q2 just printed and the late-July hyperscaler capex prints are the next binary. Kill line: a daily close that breaches the risk threshold forfeits the June flush-and-reclaim shelf and reclaimed 50-EMA, turning the recovery into a failed retest; secondarily a Q2 read showing datacenter/cooling orders under +30% YoY with FY26 guidance left unraised, or a second state adopting New York's datacenter moratorium. --- ### WTI — W&T Offshore, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-14 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: War-premium crude expression left for dead in early July has violently re-fired: the June-17 US–Iran MOU collapsed, nine nights of US airstrikes and a July-7 Hormuz tanker attack drove WTI crude +~20% to $83 (Jul 20). Unlike May, the equity is leading — +26% off the $3.06 Jul-1 low. The Aug-3 Q2 print and any ceasefire headline are the binaries. Kill line: A daily close below $3.30 loses the July re-acceleration base (the $3.37 July-10 launch shelf) and signals the equity is de-coupling from the crude spike again; independently, a US–Iran ceasefire or Hormuz-reopening headline that unwinds the crude premium voids the thesis, as would an Aug-3 print dominated by hedge losses. --- ### WULF — TeraWulf Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WULF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-05-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-HPC re-rate confirmed by Anthropic's 20-year ~$19B lease (2026-07-06); theme accelerating and cluster-confirmed (Hut 8's $9.8B deal, 2026-07-20). A ~$3.5B financing overhang, the NY hyperscale moratorium aimed at Lake Mariner (2026-07-14), and the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print make a fresh chase the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 fills the Anthropic-deal breakout gap and signals the HPC re-rate has failed; a heavily dilutive or scrapped ~$3.5B data-center financing, or a restructured/delayed Anthropic lease, confirms the break. --- ### ARM — Arm Holdings plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Data-center royalty doubled YoY for a second quarter, but Q2 FY27 royalty growth is guided to ~13% against 22% delivered. No Arm-specific disclosure has landed since 2026-07-29, so the bid is set by third parties — BofA's 2026-08-13 server-CPU TAM raise, then Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print. Vendor consensus $290.52 sits ~4% above the 2026-08-14 close of $279.44. Kill line: A daily close below $255 gives up the midpoint of the 2026-08-04 gap and the densest post-print target cluster (JPMorgan, Guggenheim and Needham all struck there on 2026-07-30), leaving $239.06 as the next reference. Secondary: Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print carrying hyperscaler capex-digestion language. --- ### BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BFLY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-22 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing story got marquee validation — Midjourney's up-to-$74M/5yr full-body scanner on 40 Ultrasound-on-Chip modules (2026-06-18) plus 2nd partner Aleph Neuro (2026-06-25). Fundamentals still accelerating, but the June double has stalled and news thinned; a binary Q2 print (~early Aug) is now the next input and the easy momentum leg is spent. Kill line: secondary: a Q2 print below the $27M guide low end or a cut FY range, or continued insider distribution with no third Embedded license as social velocity flips to saturated. --- ### COHR — Coherent Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-15 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Copper-to-optical interconnect narrative intact as a business (bookings into 2028, ~$1.9B NVDA stake) but the positioning trade is in distribution — ~35% off the 2026-06-02 ATH after correlated basket flushes. Week-of-7/21 semi rebound is a bounce, not a confirmed reclaim of the broken $404.94 shelf. The 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print is the next binary; the setup needs a volume-confirmed base. Kill line: A weekly close below $265 breaks the July shelf that has held since the 2026-07-17 flush ($276.96) and opens the unfilled gap toward the pre-June base; secondary confirmation is the 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print guiding FY27 datacom below the $1.91-2.05B Q4 run-rate, converting a multiple reset into an estimate reset. --- ### GLW — Corning Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-19 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Optical/AI-infrastructure demand is intact (Q1 Optical +36% YoY; Amazon/Meta/Nvidia deals) but the tape broke — a 43% drop off the 2026-06-30 ATH of $271.78 to ~$155. The 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the binary; two trading days out, nothing in the structure is a clean entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $148 loses the late-May/early-June consolidation shelf and opens the gap toward the 200-day; a secondary break is Optical Communications YoY growth printing under +10% on the 2026-07-28 Q2 report, or the $230–$243 target ladder beginning to get cut. --- ### GLXY — Galaxy Digital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials, Bitcoin miners Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Legacy crypto-financials name re-rating to AI-data-center landlord: Phase I ~200MW at the Helios campus was delivered to CoreWeave on 2026-07-06, turning the ~$4.5B/15-yr lease from promise into live contracted revenue while shares still carry a crypto multiple. The re-rate is the leg to own, but price must reclaim ~$31 to confirm and an unpriced 265M-share registration caps rallies until absorbed. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 loses the June consolidation base and signals the AI-infra re-rate isn't drawing a bid; a BTC break under $60k or a slip in the Helios Phase II delivery cadence would compound the breakdown. --- ### HUT — Hut 8 Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Bitcoin miners, Industrial power & grid, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-datacenter-landlord re-rate is now financed fact ($4.25B IG notes 6/4, ~$16.8B contracted backlog), but the momentum leg rolled from ~$127 to ~$105 as peers WULF/IREN captured the marquee Anthropic tenant deals (7/6) and crypto weakened. maturing, not accelerating — needs its own named-tenant catalyst or a base reclaim before the next leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $98 unwinds the AI-landlord re-rate back toward miner multiples; confirmation if the July basing shelf breaks with no named marquee-tenant deal to re-anchor the story and cohort leadership stays with peers (WULF/IREN) into weakening BTC. --- ### INTC — Intel Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Funded legacy-pivot leg is holding the $101.65 pre-announcement shelf by under a dollar after the 2026-08-14 close of $102.50; CEO Tan's Form 4 (105,263 sh at $95.00) is the only fresh company datapoint in a week of 13F-derived coverage. The binary inside the window is 2026-08-27, when transfer restrictions lapse on the registered Commerce stake. Kill line: A daily close below $99 hands back the entire post-offering reclaim of the $101.65 pre-announcement shelf and re-opens the unfilled 2026-08-03/08-04 gap toward $91.68; secondarily, 2026-08-27 passing with a marketed secondary launched off the Commerce resale shelf. --- ### KYMR — Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KYMR/ Conviction: NONE · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-02 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Oral STAT6 degrader (KT-621) re-rated on early BROADEN2 enrollment (6/25) and the $10.9B AbbVie–Apogee read-through, but the analyst upgrade cycle topped with RBC's 7/13 downgrade to neutral and the binary topline is 2H-2026 — a maturing, stretched theme structurally supported on a pullback to the $100 shelf rather than into the catalyst gap. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the post-BROADEN2 breakout base; secondary confirmation if the I&I/derm M&A theme goes quiet (no follow-on bid after AbbVie–Apogee) alongside a second analyst downgrade following RBC's 7/13 cut. --- ### LRCX — Lam Research Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRCX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-18 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The WFE/AI-memory capex trade that ran Lam +119% YTD into June has rolled into a group-wide correction — the worst month for chip stocks since 2008, memory momentum broken (Micron/SanDisk). The ~2026-07-29 FQ4 print is now the binary: it either re-accelerates the WFE order narrative or unwinds the mid-50x re-rating. A fresh entry means paying up into a broken tape days ahead of that binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 loses the rising 20-week EMA and the post-Micron breakout base; a 2026 WFE guide cut below ~$135B on a DRAM/NAND pricing rollover, or the theme flipping to saturated, then confirms the order-book break. --- ### MP — MP Materials Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-05-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: US critical-minerals-independence trade keeps getting rejected: a bullish 2026-07-20 defense-sourcing executive order failed to lift MP, which fell 7.5% on 07-24 to a fresh 52-week low ~$41 (~58% off the Oct-2025 high). Best-case policy news that can't move price is the tell; the ~2026-08-07 Q2 print and the at-risk Independence 2H-2026 magnet timeline are the next binaries. The setup does not clear until a higher low and a shelf reclaim. Kill line: A weekly close below $41 breaks the fresh 52-week low and opens the mid-to-high $30s, confirming the rare-earth supply-security premium is fully unwinding; a Q2 print (~2026-08-07) that slips the Independence 2H-2026 magnet-sales start would compound the break. --- ### NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVDA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-05-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: July de-rating unresolved and now compounded by capex scrutiny — Alphabet's first cash-flow-negative quarter since 2004 and Intel's punished $20B capex plan raise the question of whether hyperscaler spend slows. Jensen's open-weight-AI campaign is the TAM-expansion counter, but the mega-cap capex prints (~Jul 29–31) that pre-trade NVDA are the near-term binary; the setup is a bottom-fish on a still-de-rating theme. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 converts July's multiple compression into a durable de-rating rather than a summer reset; secondary confirmation if the mega-cap capex prints (~2026-07-29–31) guide capex flat-to-lower or the SOXX-vs-IGV divergence extends into August. --- ### ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONTO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: June breakout fully round-tripped: ATH $386.46 (6/30) to $279.85 (7/17), now below the 50-DMA at $294.49. The tell is non-participation — TSMC raised capex to $60-64B and ASML guided up twice on 7/15-16, and ONTO closed the week at its early-July low. Broken leg diverging from an accelerating theme; the 2026-08-06 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $279 breaks the two-touch shelf ($279.93 low on 2026-07-07, $279.85 close on 2026-07-17) and opens $253; secondary: a Q2 print on 2026-08-06 that misses the 56-56.5% gross-margin guide or the $1.65-1.73 non-GAAP EPS range, or any top-three-customer HBM capex push-out. --- ### PURR — Hyperliquid Strategies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PURR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-21 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: The gamma-squeeze/index leg is over: PURR is -42% from its 6/1 high of $11.62 to $6.68 (7/17), through the $7.70 shelf, and now trades at roughly 0.78x the value of its 17.6M HYPE stack — a treasury premium that has flipped to a discount, disabling accretive issuance. Cantor's 7/1 PT hike to $18.40 marked the bounce high. Aug 12 print is the next real mark. Kill line: A daily close below $6.30 loses the July base and the ~0.75x-NAV floor, opening the $5 handle. Secondary confirmations of the break: HYPE losing $50, or the 2026-08-12 print showing no HYPE added since the 2026-02-11 buy, which ends the treasury-accumulation story entirely. --- ### QCOM — QUALCOMM Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QCOM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: The data-center re-rating already failed: QCOM spiked to a 52-week high of $259.92 on the ~2026-06-24 Investor Day $15B-by-2029 guide, then gave back ~34% in 17 sessions to $171.78 as Hold downgrades and Apple modem-attrition math reasserted. Price is in a confirmed downtrend into a 2026-07-29 print that must quantify data-center bookings against a shrinking Apple line. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 loses the 2026-07-16/17 washout shelf and leaves little structure above the $121.99 52-week floor, confirming the post-Investor-Day move as a full retrace rather than a base; secondary break is the 2026-07-29 Q3 print passing without a quantified data-center booking or backlog number. --- ### RIOT — Riot Platforms, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RIOT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-09 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: BTC-to-AI-landlord re-rating is structurally intact — AMD $311M/50MW Rockdale lease, $33.2M Q1 data-center revenue, Citi reiterated Buy/PT $28 on 2026-07-08 — but the miner complex rolled over on a Q2 crypto rout and "fresh AI-pivot headwinds" (2026-07-04). A late-stage theme that must base before a fresh entry works; the setup does not clear yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 confirms the BTC-to-AI re-rating has unwound toward pre-AMD-lease levels; secondary: BTC failing to hold its Q3 shelf into sustained risk-off, or Q2 data-center revenue failing to ramp off Q1's $33.2M. --- ### RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RKLB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-19 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Defense-backlog re-fire interrupts the mid-July rollover: the 7/20 $17B NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 qualification and 7/21 $266M suborbital award stabilized the tape after the 7/13 support break and Piper's 7/16 Neutral $83 cap. An unresolved $3.6B bridge + $3B ATM dilution overhang and a ~8/7 Q2 binary sit under any fresh entry; maturing theme bouncing off a broken structure, confirm rather than chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 loses the post-Iridium deal base and hands the tape back to the pre-announcement range; a $3B-ATM equity take-out of the $3.6B bridge, or space-ETF (UFO/FSPC) inflows rolling over as NSSL task orders fail to convert, would remove the remaining passive and backlog bid. --- ### SHLS — Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-26 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-18 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Solar/BESS EBOS name re-rated as a 2nd-order AI-datacenter-power play on a record $758M Q1 backlog and the multi-GW ON.energy deal; price reclaimed the $10 pivot but consensus PT sits at spot (~$10.63 vs $10.02), so the confirmed 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that either re-accelerates backlog or reaffirms the range. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 re-breaks the reclaimed May base and confirms the late-June breakdown; secondarily, an Aug 4 Q2 print with backlog slipping from the $758M Q1 record, or the AI-power bid rotating to gas/SMR/nuclear. --- ### SYRE — Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-30 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Two of three lead binaries (SPY001, SPY002 anti-TL1A) printed potential best-in-class; the stock absorbed a ~$399.7M director-fund block sale and sits back near its ~$102 ATH (~$95). Next legs — SPY003 IL-23 Part A (guided mid-2026, overdue) and SPY072 RA topline (accelerated to Q3) — are the near-term binaries. Platform de-risked, but distribution flags plus ~1:1 R/R to $100–135 targets argue probe-only into an all-time high. Kill line: A weekly close below $84 surrenders the post-SPY002-print breakout base and the $85.31 level the June director-fund block cleared at; secondary: SPY003 Part A or SPY072 RA reads out weak/with a class-safety signal, or a superior competing anti-TL1A Phase 3 from Merck tulisokibart or Roche RVT-3101. --- ### TNGX — Tango Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-data digestion, not acceleration: the 92% ORR combo print is fully paid for and the tape has faded from $32.90 to ~$27.7, below the $30.00 June secondary. Sell-side keeps marking up (JPM Overweight $46 on 7/15, Mizuho $40 on 7/17) into a falling price — a divergence that historically resolves toward price. Next hard data is ESMO in October. Kill line: secondary condition: the 2026-08-04 Q2 update fails to put a dated Phase 3 initiation on the calendar, or the $100M Leerink ATM activates below the $30.00 offering price. --- ### TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Q2 (7/16) beat every line and lifted FY26 growth guide above 40%, but the capex raise to $60–64B and a 2026-07-26 Samsung–Broadcom $200B foundry pact reopened the monopoly question. Theme cooled to maturing; price recovered to ~$415, still below the $438 pre-earnings pivot. Strength unproven until a higher low or a $438 reclaim prints. Kill line: A weekly close below $380 turns the capex-anxiety pullback into a trend reversal and loses the May consolidation shelf; secondary break if a top-5 custom-silicon customer confirms 2nm volume to Samsung under the 2026-07-26 Broadcom pact, or the ~2026-08-10 monthly revenue rolls under +40% YoY. --- ### WEST — Westrock Coffee Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-26 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation, Critical materials & rare earths, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Conway extract/RTD/flavors platform inflecting capex-to-cash: Q1 (5/07) beat + record adj EBITDA + FCF-positive-H2 guide; the 6/30 debt-maturity extension cleared the refi wall. Stock re-rated to ~$9.50 near the $9.81 52-wk high. Q2 (~2026-08-06) is the next binary — buying a thin sub-$1B micro at range highs into that print is extended. Kill line: A daily close below $8.40 loses the reclaimed ~$8.40–$8.50 shelf and reverts to the prior dead range. Secondary: a Q2 print (~2026-08-06) with revenue under the $308.8M Q1 run-rate, decelerating adjusted EBITDA, or the FCF-positive-H2 guide walked back. --- ### CLSK — CleanSpark, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Spring's binary resolved bullish: CleanSpark signed a $6.6B, 20-year Georgia data-center lease (2026-07-14) with an unnamed "global technology company," converting the BTC-miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot from speculation into contracted revenue; sell-side chased PTs to $23–26 within 48h. The leg is the re-rate of a proven pivot, with fiscal Q3 (~2026-08-05) the first read on ramp speed. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.00 fills the 2026-07-14 lease-announcement gap and returns the stock to its pre-signing $16–17 range, un-pricing the re-rate; a fiscal Q3 print (~2026-08-05) showing lease revenue fully back-end-loaded, or the AI-datacenter theme rolling to saturated, would independently break the leg. --- ### MRX — Marex Group plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: M&A & special situations, Crypto exchanges & financials, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Roll-up compounder in clean momentum continuation: the sell-side is now chasing price, with KBW $80, Barclays $76 and Piper $75 targets (Jul 9-15) leapfrogging the old $60 consensus, while the Bright Point clearing bolt-on (2026-07-09) keeps the quarterly M&A flywheel turning. Q2 print (~early Aug) is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 loses the June breakout base and round-number shelf reclaimed above the prior $58.62 high; secondarily a Helikon/CVC/BXC secondary-placement announcement, or a Q2 print (~early Aug) with organic growth below ~15% YoY or PBT margin under ~20% as commodity vol mean-reverts. --- ### PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANW/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: AI-security spend narrative accelerating with third-party confirmation: IBM missed Q2 ($17.2B vs $17.86B) on 2026-07-14 and blamed budget migration into Cybersecurity — PANW +6.4%, CRWD +10%, BUG +6% same session. New ATH close $357.53 (2026-07-06), 8% flush on 7/07-7/08 fully reclaimed, $359.39 on 2026-07-18. Cluster-confirmed continuation; 291x multiple is the risk, not the signal. Kill line: A daily close below $328 loses the 2026-07-08 higher low and turns the July advance into a failed breakout; a weekly close below $306 forfeits the 2026-06-26 breakout shelf and the rising 50-day line, confirming the cyber-megacap theme has flipped to distribution ahead of the 2026-08-24 print. --- ### PSNL — Personalis, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSNL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-25 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-22 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: The MRD story has been overtaken by a live sale process: StreetInsider reported 2026-07-17 that Personalis retained Centerview, TD Securities and Cooley after takeover interest from Merck (already a >10% holder and 19% of Q1 revenue) plus two other suitors. Price broke to a $16.39 52-week high; Needham $17 and TD Cowen $18 now sit above the tape. Aug-4 Q2 is the next hard date. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 fills the July sale-process gap and loses the rising 20-EMA, which would price the strategic review as going nowhere. Secondary: an explicit denial or termination of the review, or an Aug-4 Q2 print showing biopharma-MRD revenue tracking under the ~$20-21M FY run-rate. --- ### RVMD — Revolution Medicines, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RVMD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Regulatory-clock narrative re-accelerating: the rolling NDA under the FDA National Priority Voucher is "nearing completion" (2026-07-07) and the EMA opened a phased CHMP review the same day, while the Street ceiling walked from ~$186 to $235 (Guggenheim, 2026-07-09). The three-week digestion off the $192.62 high resolved higher on 2026-07-17 (+3.9% to $186.16) — the breakout retest the prior note wanted. Kill line: A weekly close below $158 forfeits the June breakout shelf and marks the post-RASolute re-rating unwinding; secondarily, an FDA Refuse-to-File, Complete Response Letter or clinical hold on daraxonrasib, or the rolling NDA failing to complete submission by end-Q3 2026. --- ### ABT — Abbott Laboratories URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: De-rating unwind is now largely priced: $82.56 close on 2026-05-11 to $111.25 on 2026-08-14, RSI 72.2, with the 2026-08-11 Google Health/Lingo partnership and Wolfe's 2026-08-13 upgrade to $130 as the newest fuel. Nothing tests the 6.5%–7.5% FY comparable guide against Q2's 4.8% until the ~mid-October Q3 print; ESC Munich on 2026-08-28 is the only dated event inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $103 surrenders the 2026-07-16 post-Q2 gap shelf and puts price back beneath the 200-day zone that read $108.35 on 2026-07-31; secondarily, the FY26 comparable range of 6.5%–7.5% being trimmed at the ~mid-October Q3 report rather than reaffirmed. --- ### ACIW — ACI Worldwide, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACIW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-17 Themes: M&A & special situations, Fintech & consumer credit, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Special-situation breakup narrative accelerating: Reuters (2026-07-17) reports ACI exploring a ~$1.5B sale of its Biller unit, which would surface sum-of-the-parts value and re-rate the faster-growing Payments Software segment. Q1 beat + raised FY guide and a fresh DA Davidson PT bump to $64 confirm; Q2 print ~early August is the binary overlay. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 surrenders the divestiture-rumor breakout shelf and flags the biller-sale bid fading; a company statement that the strategic review ended with no transaction would reinforce the break. --- ### ACLS — Axcelis Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-06 (Q2 rev $215.175M vs $204.985M est; Q3 guided $230.0M vs $214.846M) repaired the fundamental case, but price only recovered to the top of the July band at $140.15 (08-14), 26.9% under the $191.6 high. China SAMR escalated the Veeco deal from simplified to normal review (MLex 2026-07-10) — an undated regulatory binary now sets the next leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $131 breaks the July floor at $131.92 and gives back the entire post-print recovery leg; secondarily, SAMR conditioning clearance on remedies or the Veeco deal terminating, or Q3 revenue landing under the $230.000M guided on 2026-08-06. --- ### ADBE — Adobe Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADBE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Deep-value AI-disruption leg in legacy software, now with an external validator: the 2026-08-13 Silver Lake–Workday take-private report put a sponsor price on marked-down per-seat SaaS. ADBE closed 2026-08-14 at $264.02, 28.2% off the high, but retail was a net seller in July and nothing company-specific resolves before the 2026-09-10 Q3 print and its organic ex-Semrush ARR line. Kill line: A weekly close below $238 (loses the late-July $245–250 recovery shelf); secondarily, a 2026-09-10 Q3 print with organic ex-Semrush ending-ARR growth under the ~8.3% FY26 implied path, or no ex-Semrush disclosure at all. --- ### ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22 sell-side band, running into a binary July 29 Q2 print — extension plus imminent earnings, not a clean fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 loses the rising 20-week base and the June–July breakout shelf above the old $20–22 sell-side band; a push-out of the positive end-2026 adjusted-EBITDA/FCF target on the July 29 print, or the theme flipping to saturated, would confirm the inflection break. --- ### AGIO — Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGIO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-11-01 Thesis: Mitapivat SCD label-expansion binary into a 2026-11-01 PDUFA, now with a real commercial leg under it: Q2 mitapivat revenue $44.7M vs $26.03M consensus (2026-07-30), yet the tape gave the beat back — $33.56 close on 2026-08-14, RSI 35.8, 26.2% off the $45.49 high. Nothing dated resolves before the FDA decision. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 fills the 2026-07-07 Priority-Review gap and negates the SCD label-expansion breakout; secondarily, a complete response letter or a restricted label at the 2026-11-01 mitapivat PDUFA breaks the thesis outright. --- ### AKAM — Akamai Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKAM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, AI enterprise software Thesis: Legacy-CDN-to-AI-inference pivot got its first external validation since the failed July bounce: Q2 CIS +39% to $99M with >$2.8B YTD contract bookings (2026-08-06), then J.P. Morgan off Underweight to Neutral, PT $158 (2026-08-13). Price has recovered the whole July gap and now sits under the ~$126.5 shelf that rejected it; no company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $115 (loses the recovered 2026-07-08 gap and returns to the 2026-07-24 basing zone); secondary: CIS growth printing under ~35% YoY at the Q3 report, or the low-teens 2027 acceleration framing walked back. --- ### AKTS — Aktis Oncology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: The "coverage is spent" read broke: Wedbush ($35) and BMO ($37) initiated Outperform on 2026-08-19, taking the cohort to five, and the 2026-08-13 Q2 reaffirmed Q1 2027 AKY-1189 data with $517.3M cash. Price did not follow — $24.07 on 2026-08-21 versus $24.13 on 2026-08-07. Sponsorship rebuilt into a flat tape; no dated catalyst before Q3 results. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 breaks the range built off the 2026-07-30 low print of $22.39 and says the 2026-08-19 initiations failed to clear post-lock-up supply; secondarily, any of the five covering houses cutting a target below $30, or the Q3 print hedging Q1 2027 NECTINIUM-2 timing. --- ### ALAB — Astera Labs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALAB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-04) answered the July margin question: GM 73.7% vs ~73% guide, and Q3 guided $540–560M vs $416.5M consensus (~40% QoQ) with Scorpio X switches in volume production a quarter early. Price has not confirmed — the 2026-08-14 close of $321.61 is ~11% below the post-print level and 33.4% under the $483.02 52-week high. Kill line: A weekly close below $291 erases the post-Q2 re-rating and returns price beneath the 2026-07-24 breakdown shelf ($291.58); secondary confirmation if Q3 gross margin prints under the ~72% guide or revenue lands at the $540M low end. --- ### ALGT — Allegiant Travel Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Allegiant closed the $1.5B Sun Country acquisition (2026-05-13) to become the largest US leisure airline just as fuel flipped to a tailwind and the whole sell-side re-rated it to $142–$160; the move has more than doubled off the low, and the first partly-combined Q2 print on 2026-08-04 is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the June–July breakout base and flips the prior $118 high to resistance; secondary: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print guiding combined FY26 EPS under the $142–$160 bull-target path or flagging Sun Country integration overruns, or crude re-spiking on renewed Hormuz/OPEC+ supply risk that reverses the fuel tailwind. --- ### ALKS — Alkermes plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALKS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Legacy CNS base converting into an OX2R sleep franchise; the mechanism was validated by the FDA's 2026-08-05 approval of Takeda's ORZEYFUL, yet ALKS closed 2026-08-21 at $48.33, 12.5% under its $55.22 high. Catalyst-light until the ~2026-09-30 ALKS 7290 top-line; Vibrance-3 in Q4 is the real binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the $45.76 pre-Vibrance-2 high the June breakout cleared and turns the orexin re-rate into a round trip; secondarily, FY2026 tracking to the $1.730B low end of the affirmed guide at the ~October print, or a Vibrance-3 idiopathic-hypersomnia miss in Q4 2026. --- ### AMBA — Ambarella, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Physical-AI pure-play narrative still accelerating (Rosenblatt top H2-2026 pick, PT $120; Zacks upgrade to #2 Buy 2026-07-21), but the post-Rosenblatt breakout to ~$80 round-tripped to ~$67.61 by 2026-07-24, forfeiting the $72 shelf on a weekly close into ongoing insider selling — with no dated catalyst until the ~2026-09-01 Q2 FY27 print. Intact theme, broken near-term structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $63.50 loses the June-5 swing low and resumes the breakdown from the failed post-Rosenblatt breakout; the reclaimed $72 shelf has already been forfeited on a weekly close. Secondary: Q2 FY27 revenue (2026-09-01) under the $105M guide floor, a Hanwha ramp delay, or physical-AI coverage flipping to saturated. --- ### AMC — Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-20 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups Thesis: Box-office recovery flipped from meme-squeeze dormancy to a fundamental earnings inflection: Q2 (2026-07-20) adj EPS $0.14 vs $(0.06) est, revenue $1.597B beat, plus a Wedbush $4 / Benchmark $3 upgrade cluster (2026-07-21). Narrative accelerating, but ~1B shares, ~$4B debt and post-rally ATM-dilution risk cap a chase of the post-print pop. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 negates the post-Q2 breakout base and reverts the name to penny-tier grind; a fresh ATM equity-raise filing or box-office grosses rolling over across consecutive summer weekends would confirm the earnings-inflection leg has stalled. --- ### AMPL — Amplitude, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMPL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Post-print re-rate extending: 2026-08-21 close $13.29 is 0.1% under the 52-week high after a 98.4% three-month move, with Morgan Stanley to $16 (2026-08-13) and BofA to $14 (2026-08-20) lifting the ceiling above the $13 post-earnings cluster. Retention at 103% versus a 115% target stays unresolved until Q3 (~2026-11-04, est.); RSI(14) 82.4 with mean target $13.77. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.20 forfeits the August post-print shelf and the whole leg that followed Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-13 raise to $16; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances passing with no update to the 103% net-retention trajectory while price fails to hold the prior $12.60 52-week high. --- ### AMRX — Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy-generics-to-specialty re-rate with both 2026 tests cleared — 2026-07-30 Q2 beat plus a second FY2026 raise, Kashiv closed 2026-08-10 on $350M of term loan and 28.9M Class A shares — but the tape has faded to a 2026-08-21 close of $17.91 with RSI(14) 39.6 and nothing hard-dated until the ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print. Narrative is maturing, not accelerating. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 puts price back inside the pre-print range and unwinds the post-Q2 advance; secondary break is a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) that cuts the raised FY2026 guide of $3.10–3.20B revenue / $750–780M adjusted EBITDA, or post-Kashiv net leverage printing well above the 3.6x recorded at 2026-06-30. --- ### AMZN — Amazon.com, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMZN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: AWS reacceleration is now measured rather than hoped: +37% YoY to $42.2B on 2026-07-30, fastest in 18 quarters, and the stock took $3T at a record $284.02 close on 2026-08-03. Half that move was back by the 2026-08-14 close of $262.65; the live question is whether a $220B capex year with TTM free cash flow at -$7.6B keeps being funded by the multiple. Kill line: A weekly close below $245 unwinds the entire 2026-07-31 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. late Oct) with AWS growth back under 30% alongside another capex raise. --- ### ANDG — Andersen Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANDG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Post-IPO roll-up re-rate that survived its binary: Q2 revenue $217.7M beat $199.3M on 2026-08-12 and FY2026 was affirmed at $980M–$1.0B, with four target raises to $49–57 on 2026-08-13. The print is behind it and no dated catalyst sits inside 30 days; the leg now depends on 16 deals worth ~$134M annualized converting into a raise, on a 10.72M float that is 26.7% short. Kill line: A weekly close below $42.50 surrenders the July breakout shelf and the rising 50-day average near $41.94; secondary, FY2026 revenue guidance trimmed under the $980M floor or a Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin that fails to recover toward the 23–25% band from Q2's 21.1%. --- ### APH — Amphenol Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: AI-interconnect content leg intact — orders $10.7B, book-to-bill 1.23:1, Q3 guided above consensus — but the flow turned: $169.18 on 2026-08-07 to $157.01 on 2026-08-21, including a 6.6% one-day drop on 2026-08-18 with no company news. RSI(14) 43.4, 11.0% under the $176.32 high. Nothing company-specific resolves before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $152 loses the June breakout shelf and the rising 20-week EMA; the 2-for-1 distributing 2026-09-02 rebases quoted prices, so the same condition reads $76 from the 2026-09-03 ex-date. Secondary: no reclaim of $169.18 before the ~late-October Q3 print. --- ### ARES — Ares Management Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARES/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Private-credit compounder still saturated rather than broken: Q2 (2026-07-31) showed AUM $671B, $36B inflows and FRE $491.1M, yet the 2026-08-21 close of $141.25 sits 20.7% under the $178.13 trailing high. Since 2026-08-12 nothing has resolved — Leonard Green still listed in discussions on 2026-08-23, the $3.4B secondaries sale still unpriced — and the only dated company event before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print is the 2026-09-16 dividend record date. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 unwinds the post-print recovery and puts the shares under the 2026-08-07 close of $136.85; secondary break if the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print shows a second sequential rise in underperforming investments after the uptick disclosed 2026-07-29. --- ### ARXS — Arxis, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARXS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Sponsor carve-out compounding into a Defense & Space upcycle, but the 2026-07-29 guide raise to $1.96–1.98B is now in the price. Omnetics closed 2026-08-17 at $770M EV, paid principally in 13.35M Class A shares. Momentum has reset — RSI(14) 48.8 on the 2026-08-21 close of $53.26 versus 73.9 a week earlier — with no confirmed catalyst before the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 unwinds the post-2026-07-29 guidance-raise re-rating and returns price toward RBC's Sector Perform target; secondarily, a late-October Q3 print that reiterates rather than raises the $1.960B-$1.980B FY2026 revenue guide, or a resale registration after the mid-October lock-up window. --- ### ATEYY — Advantest Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEYY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The 2026-07-29 Q1 print broke the H2 digestion flag: FY2026 guide raised to ¥1,714.0B sales / ¥846.0B operating income, CY2026 tester TAM lifted to $13.0–14.5B from $10.9–12.2B, and the ADR made a new 52-week high at $235.00 on 2026-08-14. The leg is now AI-inference SoC test volume, not HBM complexity — and no company catalyst lands before the late-October H1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $216 fails the breakout over the 2026-06-25 record and puts the ADR back inside the June–July range; an unchanged FY2026 guide at the late-October H1 print, or the China revenue share dropping sharply from Q1's 48.6%, would confirm the leg breaking on fundamentals. --- ### ATRC — AtriCure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATRC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Profitability-inflection leg now confirmed by price: the 2026-08-14 close of $44.30 is a fresh 52-week high on RSI(14) 76.0. The 2026-07-23 raise (FY2026 adjusted EPS $0.00–$0.04 to $0.24–$0.32 against $0.06 consensus) is three weeks old, and the 2026-08-10 / 2026-08-11 investor events reaffirmed the $602–610M revenue range without lifting the ceiling. Nothing scheduled resolves until the Q3 print, est. ~2026-10-22. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 unwinds the August breakout and returns price into the early-August range where three insiders sold at $38.42–$38.80. Secondary condition: appendage management growth under 10% YoY at the Q3 print (~2026-10-22 est.), against +14.4% YoY in Q2 2026. --- ### AU — AngloGold Ashanti plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Gold-miner margin leverage at a fresh high: spot $4,607/oz on 2026-08-21 (+11.54% MoM) turned Q2 free cash flow to $727M and the balance sheet to $991M net cash, but the same 2026-07-31 print missed on EPS ($1.98 vs $2.18) and revenue. Shares closed at the 52-week high $121.22 with RSI 89.2 and no company catalyst until ~November; the 2026-09-16 FOMC is the only scheduled repricing event. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 round-trips the August breakout leg (+9.46% on 2026-08-07, +5.05% on 2026-08-20, +5.57% on 2026-08-21) that carried the shares to the 2026-08-21 high of $121.22; secondary break is spot gold losing $4,200/oz on a weekly close, which removes the margin expansion the H2 estimates assume. --- ### AUR — Aurora Innovation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) cleared the binary without breaking the plan: >200 driverless trucks and ~$80M exit run-rate reaffirmed, FY26 revenue guided $14–16M, ~$1.2B cash after a $215M net ATM raise. Price reclaimed the broken ~$6.00 June shelf to a $6.99 close (2026-08-14). Narrative is maturing; the 2026-08-20 retail town hall is an attention event, with the fleet-count checkpoint not due until the late-October print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 gives back the post-Q2 reclaim of the June shelf and re-opens the ~$5.00 pre-McLane level; secondarily, a Q3 print that trims the FY2026 $14–16M revenue guide or drops the >200-driverless-truck year-end target. --- ### AUTL — Autolus Therapeutics plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUTL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Commercial-execution re-rating still working on no new information: after the 2026-08-03 guidance raise to $140–150M and the 2026-08-11 Q2 beat ($45.7M vs $34.0M consensus), the shares printed a new 52-week high at $2.54 and closed $2.41 on 2026-08-21 with no company news dated after the print. Next dated test is the ~November Q3 report; the eleven-week gap in between is flow, not fundamentals. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.05 breaks the leg that began with the 2026-08-03 guidance raise; secondarily, FY2026 AUCATZYL revenue guidance being cut below $140M at the Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.). --- ### AVAH — Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVAH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Fourth FY2026 guide raise (2026-08-13: adj EPS $0.22 vs $0.17, EBITDA floor to >$365M) carried price to a $13.16 52-week high; eight days later J.H. The overhang now has a dated clearing price, and nothing is scheduled until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.75 puts price under the 2026-08-21 secondary price where 15,000,000 sponsor and insider shares cleared; secondary breaks are exercise of the 2,250,000-share over-allotment followed by another block, or a maintained-rather-than-raised FY2026 guide at the ~November Q3 print. --- ### AYA — Aya Gold & Silver Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AYA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Silver back near $69.6/oz on 2026-08-21 from $64.96 a week earlier puts Q3 realized pricing above Q2's $64.22/oz AgEq, restoring the price leg the prior read had written off — but the equity lagged, closing CA$36.66 against a CA$40.16 52-week high with RSI(14) at 70.7. Volume proof arrives with the ~2026-10-07 Q3 production release. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 ends the advance that produced the 52.3% three-month move; secondary, the updated Boumadine PEA slipping past 2026-12-31 with no replacement date, or Q3 processing coming in below the 3,889 tpd Q2 rate. --- ### BABA — Alibaba Group Holding Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BABA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: Cloud/AI re-rating leg picked up an Apple attachment — Reuters reported 2026-08-14 that Apple trained a China-specific LLM with Alibaba's support — Price faded the other way, $128.41 on 08-07 to $123.81 on 08-14, 34.0% under the 52-week high. The 2026-08-20 June-quarter print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 returns the ADR to its pre-2026-07-31 July range and voids both August advances; as a secondary condition, the 2026-08-20 June-quarter print showing Cloud Intelligence external-customer revenue growing below the 40% March-quarter rate while capex is guided above the RMB38.6bn quarterly run-rate. --- ### BBAR — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBAR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-05 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Emerging markets, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Argentina country trade re-accelerated: June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on 2026-07-14 (first sub-2% of the cycle) and country risk broke to 402bp, tightest since April 2018, carrying BBAR to a fresh 52-week high of $22.47. Price now sits above every published target while Q1 ROE was 8.3% — the macro is leading, the bank is lagging. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.00 negates the July breakout above the $21.38 prior high and puts the ADR back inside the June range; secondary confirmation: Argentine country risk widening back through 500bp, or INDEC monthly CPI re-accelerating above 2.5% MoM for two consecutive prints. --- ### BBNX — Beta Bionics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBNX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) resolved the binary the right way: new patient starts rose sequentially (banded +10–20%) after Q1's decline, net sales $32.0M +38% YoY, FY26 gross-margin floor raised to 58.5–59.5%. The frame flipped from broken-growth to re-acceleration and price is +85.7% in three months to $17.57 (2026-08-14). Next verification is the Q3 print ~late October; nothing dated in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 gives back the post-2026-07-29 re-rate and puts price back inside the pre-print range capped by the $13.88 stall of 2026-06-19; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-27, est.) showing new patient starts back in sequential decline, or FY26 revenue guidance trimmed from $131–136M. --- ### BE — Bloom Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-28) beat and raised — revenue $1.065B +165.5% YoY, FY26 guide lifted to $3.9–$4.2B — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $229.94 sits 33.5% below the 52wk high after July's 32% Hunterbrook-driven drawdown. Accelerating P&L into a deflating narrative premium: the $280–$290 shelf is lost, litigation runs to a 2026-09-28 deadline, and no company catalyst lands before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 negates the post-print recovery and returns price to the July breakdown range; secondary: FY2026 revenue guided under the $3.9B floor at the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print, or independent corroboration of the China-scandium sourcing allegations. --- ### BETA — Beta Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BETA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Freight & logistics Thesis: The 2026-08-12 print resolved the binary split: revenue $14.658M beat the $9.752M consensus and FY26 revenue was guided up to $42–50M from $39–43M, but EPS missed at $(0.64) and backlog dollars sat flat at $3.9B for a second quarter. Order-and-financing leg now well known — three desks reiterated targets rather than raised them — and nothing dated sits inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.00 unwinds the post-Q2 advance off the 2026-08-14 close of $24.86; secondarily, the raised FY26 revenue guide of $42–50M not reaffirmed at the Q3 print, or CX300 type certification re-dated out of 2026. --- ### BH — Biglari Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: Q2 10-Q (filed 2026-08-07) answered the dilution question early: six-month issuance proceeds of $14,920k do not exceed the $15,073k of ATM sales already disclosed through 2026-05-08, so nothing material was sold into the June run to $476.92. Tape still flat — $384.19 (Jul 17) to $388.85 (Aug 21) — with no dated BH catalyst before CBRL's late-September print. Kill line: A weekly close below $325 forfeits the July 2026 flush low of $324.89 and round-trips the second re-rating leg; secondarily, Q3 issuance proceeds materially above the $14,920k six-month figure, or CBRL back under roughly $45. --- ### BHE — Benchmark Electronics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-07-29 (rev $756M +18% YoY, AC&C +71% YoY, FY26 lifted to ~$3B/+13%) was fully sold: price round-tripped from the $98.67 52-week high to $81.75 on 2026-08-14. The AI-cooling and lidar picks-and-shovels leg is confirmed in the financials but flow has moderated, and no dated company catalyst exists before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 completes the round-trip of the entire post-2026-07-29 beat-and-raise advance and puts price under the June distribution close of $83.92. Secondary: Q3 CY2026 revenue printing under the $755M guide floor, or the ~$3B FY26 outlook being walked back, at the ~2026-10-28 report. --- ### BILL — BILL Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BILL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Self-help re-rate cleared its binary on 2026-08-19: Q4 core revenue +16%, 23% non-GAAP operating margin, FY2027 EPS guided $3.56–$3.79 vs $3.35 consensus — and the stock still fell 2.97% the next day, closing $47.82 on 2026-08-21 under all eight targets raised into $54–$60. Now a catalyst-void stretch with businesses served declining sequentially to 479,300. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the recovery leg off the 2026-06-22 low of $31.96 and returns price to the pre-June downtrend; secondary confirmation if the ~November Q1 FY2027 print shows businesses served again below 479,300 or revenue under the guided $432.5M floor. --- ### BLZE — Backblaze, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLZE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-16 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Neocloud storage pick-and-shovel: the five-year ~$335M CoreWeave B2 Neo deal (2026-06-23) re-rated BLZE from the high-$7s to a 52-week high near $18, and sell-side is still chasing (Citizens to $16, 2026-07-23). Narrative accelerating but extended above the $14–16 target band into a binary ~2026-08-06 Q2 print — the first read on whether CoreWeave is a template or one whale. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 forfeits the post-CoreWeave breakout leg and drops back under the $14–16 analyst-PT cluster; secondary break if the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows B2 Cloud Storage growth decelerating under 20% YoY or an FY26 guide cut, or the theme flips to saturated on peak mainstream coverage with no fresh neocloud win. --- ### BMY — Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Legacy-pharma re-rate off the 2026-07-30 guidance reset ($49.0–50.0B sales, $6.75–7.00 adj EPS) is intact, but both attention legs are spent: the AstraZeneca merger was denied 2026-08-05 and the FDA approved ZENBEXUS on 2026-08-13, four days early — and price still closed 2026-08-14 at $63.83, 3.1% under the high. Next dated company event is the 2026-09-30 Camzyos PDUFA. Kill line: A daily close below $61 gives back the advance built off the 2026-07-30 FY2026 guidance raise; secondarily, the 2026-09-30 Camzyos adolescent PDUFA passing without approval removes the last dated pipeline event before the late-October Q3 print. --- ### BULL — Webull Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BULL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-06 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Fintech & consumer credit, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: June dormant-to-leader flip is confirming: the ~$7.52 breakout resolved up on the 2026-07-21 surge, Rosenblatt lifted its target to $13 (2026-07-16), and June ops printed 28.2M users / $800M net deposits. Theme accelerating; read is a held-breakout continuation as long as $7.30 holds as the flipped support shelf. Kill line: A daily close below $7.30 fails the breakout back into the $7 range and puts the June flip in question; a close below $6.60 loses the handle and 50-day, and a theme flip to saturated mainstream coverage without a fresh catalyst, or renewed relative weakness vs HOOD, caps the re-rate. --- ### BVS — Bioventus Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BVS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Two weeks past the 2026-08-05 unsolicited-proposal disclosure the M&A leg is intact but undated: no committee update in 12 sessions, price consolidating at the 2026-08-21 close of $14.38 against the $15.26 high while RSI(14) unwound 70.5 to 58.1. Canaccord re-marked to $19 on 2026-08-17; Cantor held $15 the same day. Nothing resolves until the review speaks. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 round-trips the 2026-08-05 strategic-review gap and returns price under the pre-announcement $12.53 52-week-high shelf; the independent committee concluding its review with no transaction, or a cut to the reaffirmed FY26 $600-610M range, is the confirming secondary condition. --- ### BWLP — BW LPG Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWLP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Hormuz VLGC rate shock now hangs on one date: the 2026-08-28 H1 report tests ~85% of Q2 days pre-fixed near $81,000/day (guided 2026-06-02) against the -$31M Product Services quarter flagged 2026-07-16, and sets the Q2 dividend against Q1's $0.67/share. Price closed 2026-08-14 at a 52-week high of $22.62 into that print. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.50 gives back the June–August base the 2026-08-14 new high was built on; secondarily, a 2026-08-28 Q2 shipping TCE materially under the ~$81,000/day on ~85% coverage guided 2026-06-02, or a Q2 dividend declared below $0.67/share. --- ### CACI — CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CACI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace Thesis: Services-to-defense-tech re-rate off the 2026-08-05 FY2027 guide reset (adj EPS $32.96–33.86 vs $30.78 consensus, FCF ≥$900M) is now digesting: the 2026-08-17 NITE-STAR award made no new high, and the 2026-08-21 close of $647.39 sits back on the ~$646 post-guide shelf with no company catalyst before the ~October Q1 print. Kill line: A daily close below $640 forfeits the post-print gap shelf (the ~$646 close of 2026-08-07 was the lowest since the 2026-08-05 FY2027 guide). Secondary: Q1 FY2027 book-to-bill under 1.0x, or a full-year continuing resolution with new-start restrictions at the 2026-09-30 appropriations deadline. --- ### CADL — Candel Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CADL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Pre-BLA re-rating re-armed: July's round-trip reversed, price reclaimed the June $11.36 high and closed 2026-08-14 at $11.72, 0.7% under the 52-week high, after the 8/13 Q2 print reaffirmed a Q4 2026 prostate BLA and $201.6M cash into Q1 2028. Flow is analyst/balance-sheet driven, not data driven — nothing company-dated inside 30 days, ASTRO is 2026-09-26–30, RSI(14) 76.5. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.36 surrenders the August reclaim of the June breakout high; a subsequent daily close under $9.27 returns price to the dead April–June range. Secondary: ASTRO (2026-09-26 to 09-30) passing without expanding participation, or any Q3 language moving the BLA out of Q4 2026. --- ### CAL — Caleres Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: July chop resolved up: $11.78 (2026-07-24) to $13.37 (2026-08-14) reclaims the low-$13s shelf lost after the June print, while the ~$57.8M IEEPA refund moved from legal abstraction to a live CBP payment queue ($128.68B accepted for processing as of 2026-07-31). The ~2026-09-03 Q2 print is the binary Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 forfeits the reclaimed low-$13s shelf and returns price to the July $11.00–$12.60 chop; secondary confirmation if the ~2026-09-03 Q2 print passes with Famous Footwear comps worse than the guided down mid-single-digit and no IEEPA refund collected. --- ### CCC — CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Thesis: Cheap, high-margin insurtech SaaS put in play: a Morgan Stanley-run sale process plus a fresh Elliott activist stake. Shares popped ~13% to ~$6 on the 2026-07-09 Reuters report yet still sit below a plausible PE take-out. The trade is deal-odds, not the claims cycle. Kill line: A daily close below $5.40 fills the 2026-07-10 sale-rumor gap and prices the strategic review failing; a company statement ending or denying the sale process confirms the break. --- ### CCS — Century Communities, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rate is consolidating rather than extending: the 2026-08-21 close of $69.78 is 5.8% under the $74.04 high with RSI 52.4. August HMI ticked up to 35 and Freddie Mac fell a second week to 6.65%, but July single-family starts dropped 9.9% to 808k. No company disclosure until Q3 in late October — the next 30 days are macro-only. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 retraces most of the 2026-07-22 re-rate and returns price toward the pre-print zone; a September NAHB HMI back under August's 35 with buyer traffic below 23, and Freddie Mac's 30-year back above 6.75% from 6.65% (2026-08-20), would confirm the demand break. --- ### CDNA — CareDx, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-08-30 Thesis: Post-LCD estimate-revision leg is intact but the flow has moderated: no company headline between 2026-08-07 and 2026-08-21, yet a new closing high of $48.61 with RSI(14) down to 53.3 from 70.1. The 2026-08-30 LCD effective date is a policy-mechanics check worth only ~$7.5M in 2026 by management's own sizing; Kill line: A weekly close below $42 unwinds the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise repricing and the August $46.69–$48.61 shelf, reopening the $30–$37 band. Secondary: a MolDX/CMS billing article after 2026-08-30 capping surveillance frequency, or FY2026 revenue guidance trimmed below $490M at the Q3 print. --- ### CERT — Certara, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CERT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Guidance held rather than got cut again: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print reaffirmed FY26 revenue $367-382M and adj EPS $0.31-0.36 despite a revenue miss, and the $6.87 premarket gap round-tripped to an $8.43 close on 08-21. The leg is self-help — ~5% RIF for ~$13M run-rate savings, $98.21M of stock retired, software bookings +9% — with no dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $7.20 surrenders the entire post-print recovery off the 2026-08-04 gap; secondarily, FY26 revenue guided under $367M or adjusted EPS under $0.31 at the Q3 report (~2026-11-03, est.) would end the self-help read. --- ### CGEM — Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGEM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: CD19 T-cell-engager-in-autoimmune narrative re-rated CGEM ~3x off the $5.68 low on CLN-978 lupus/RA single-dose remissions; now drifting to ~$17.10 in a bull flag under the $19.43 high with the big data catalyst spent and no dated readout until 2H-2026 — a between-catalysts base, not a catalyst buy. The 2026-08-07 Q2 print is a cash/runway checkpoint, not a data event. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.77 round-trips the June-data bull flag and the rising structure off the $5.68 low; a CRS or durability miss in expanded CLN-978 cohorts, or the CD19-TCE-in-autoimmune theme flipping saturated with no replacement leg, would confirm the break. --- ### CLDX — Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLDX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Single-asset binary: Phase 3 EMBARQ-CSU1/CSU2 topline guided to September/October 2026 at the 2026-08-06 print is the entire equity. The re-rating leg is built — 52-week high $44.87, three Overweight raises 07-29 to 08-07 — and has since cooled to a $40.38 close on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) 60.7, holding above the mid-July shelf near $35.40. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 gives back the re-rating shelf built between the 2026-07-21 prurigo nodularis failure and the 2026-08-07 target cluster; secondarily, October 2026 ending with no EMBARQ-CSU topline and no reaffirmation of the September/October guidance. --- ### CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: FCF-inflection thesis confirmed: Q2 (2026-07-23) delivered positive free cash flow and a sales beat, the stock gapped ~19%, and GLJ flipped to Buy ($15.6) — first above-spot target. The GOES-into-grid narrative is re-accelerating, but a +20% earnings gap on an inline loss is an extended chase, not a clean base. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.40 fills the 2026-07-23 earnings gap and forfeits the FCF-inflection breakout; an H2 guidance walk-back or a return to negative free cash flow on the Q3 print is the fundamental confirm, as is the Industrial power & grid theme flipping to saturated. --- ### CLOV — Clover Health Investments, Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLOV/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-05) resolved the binary upward — revenue $743.2M +56%, adj EBITDA $41M, FY guide lifted on every line to $2.92–3.00B revenue and $20–35M GAAP net income — but the 52-week high of $5.41 was sold to a $4.60 close on 2026-08-14 while CMS appealed the Star-Ratings ruling to the 11th Circuit on 2026-07-21. Maturing narrative, no dated catalyst until October. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.23 refills the 2026-06-10 court-ruling gap and ends the Star-Ratings breakout leg; secondary conditions are an Eleventh Circuit order vacating the 4.5-Star recalculation, or Insurance BER printing above 87.6% at the Q3 report. --- ### CLW — Clearwater Paper Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: SBS paperboard price inflection: two $60/ton increases plus ~300kt of capacity out YTD took Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $20–30M from negative $8M in Q2. The overbought condition at the 2026-08-07 high of $23.31 has worked off — RSI(14) 45.3 at the $21.75 close on 2026-08-21 — but realization is still unproven; the August/September RISI index prints are the test. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 breaks the August 2026 floor near $20.28 and returns price into the $17–$22 published-target band; secondary, the June and August $60/ton SBS increases failing to appear in the Fastmarkets RISI index through the ~2026-09-30 print. --- ### CMCO — Columbus McKinnon Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-31 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: First full combined quarter post-Kito Crosby beat hard (adj EPS $0.61 vs $0.27 est) and drove a guidance raise on all three lines on 2026-07-30; the leg being bought is deleveraging from 4.9x toward sub-4x by FY28 on $70M of synergies. No company catalyst until the ~late-Oct Q2 print, with price 12.1% off the $23.01 high. Kill line: A daily close below $18.50 hands back the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise shelf; secondary break is a Q2 FY27 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing Credit Agreement Net Leverage above 4.9x, book-to-bill under 1.0x, or a cut to the $2.09–2.15B FY27 sales guide. --- ### CME — CME Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CME/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Event-contract and 24/7 pivot got dates: NHL FutureSports futures 2026-09-28, Silicon Data H100/B200 compute futures 2026-10-05, 24/7 silver 2026-09-11 — all announced 2026-08-11. Price recovered to $274.98 (2026-08-21) but still sits under the 200-day near $278.50, and Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on 2026-08-19 at a $270 target. The 2026-08-26 CFTC comment close is the near gate. Kill line: A weekly close below $258 gives back the entire post-2026-08-11 product-announcement advance that began from the 2026-08-07 close of $263.66. Secondary: NHL FutureSports futures failing to begin trading on 2026-09-28 as announced. --- ### CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Outbreak drawdown is repairing: the federal count rose from 345 cases/27 states (2026-08-14) to 431/32 (2026-08-19) while the stock went from a $33.50 close on 08-14 to $36.90 on 08-21, reclaiming the $35 shelf. CDC dates illness onsets 06-19 to 07-20, so the exposure window is closed — but nothing measures post-08-04 traffic before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 surrenders the post-2026-08-14 recovery and puts price back inside the outbreak drawdown range; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.) with comparable-sales transactions negative YoY against +1.0% in Q2 2026. --- ### CMPS — COMPASS Pathways Plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMPS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cannabis reclassification Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Clinical binary resolved 2026-07-07; what trades now is regulatory execution — rolling NDA completion guided Q4 2026, H1 2027 launch, $433.3M cash into 2028. The empty calendar just filled: FDA holds a public hearing 2026-09-14 on supervised psychedelic administration, the first read on how restrictive COMP360's access framework will be. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 gives back more than half the July COMP006 leg and the post-Q2 shelf; secondary breaks: a priced equity deal off the 2026-08-05 mixed shelf at a discount, or the Q4 2026 rolling-NDA completion slipping into 2027. --- ### CODI — Compass Diversified URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CODI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-10) reframed the name: adj EPS $(0.09) missed $0.09 est, but Subsidiary Adj EBITDA rose 12.6% to $91.5M and covenant leverage fell 5.3x to 4.8x. TD Cowen went $12.50→$18. Riley upgraded to Buy at $15 on 2026-08-11; three insiders bought 2026-08-12/13 up to $12.42. Price hit a new high of $12.71 then faded 8.1% — the re-rating is being tested. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 returns price beneath its 2026-08-07 pre-print reference and gives back the entire post-Q2 advance; secondary condition, the FY2026 Subsidiary Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $320-365M being cut at the Q3 print with no subsidiary sale process disclosed. --- ### COHU — Cohu, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment, Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Best fundamental print of the AI cycle (2026-07-30: rev $149M vs $144.08M cons.; Q3 guided $163–177M vs $146.33M) collided with a sector de-rate — the stock closed $52.88 on 2026-08-07, 28.5% under its $73.91 high and beneath the June re-rate shelf. Narrative now saturated: five targets at $65–80, all struck above spot, none cut yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low; secondarily, a Q3 FY26 revenue print beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide. --- ### CRAI — CRA International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRAI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Beat-and-raise from 2026-08-06 — record $210.8M quarter, FY26 constant-currency guide lifted to $805–820M — has only partly repriced: $176.90 on 2026-08-21, still 20.2% under the $221.74 high, with no company news since the print. The leg is a toll on record M&A and litigation volume; margin conversion stays unresolved until the ~2026-10-29 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 surrenders the 2026-08-07 post-print close of $169.31 and prices the 2026-08-06 raise as spent; a Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) that trims the $805–820M FY26 guide or extends DSO beyond 113 days is the confirming fundamental break. --- ### CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRDO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Interconnect/AEC royalty narrative still accelerating, not fading — new 52-week highs on late-June initiations (Evercore $325, Stifel $350, BofA $340) plus the early-July AI-buildout rally. But it's now mainstream and widely held, entering a ~6-week catalyst void until the late-Aug Q1 FY27 print with macro tightening; continuation intact, though chasing all-time highs here is lower-edge than a pullback to support. Kill line: A weekly close below $185 loses the late-June breakout base that launched the new-52-week-high leg; a secondary condition is Networking & optical coverage rolling to saturation as sell-side PT raises dry up and peer breakouts (MRVL, AAOI, LITE) fail. --- ### CRM — Salesforce, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: De-rated Dow software incumbent on two dated legs: the $1.6B VA agentic ELA (2026-07-24) and Reuters' 2026-08-13 report of Silver Lake–Workday take-private talks, which put a private-market floor under mega-cap SaaS. Six target revisions between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-20 chased price to $209.17; the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print is the binary and much of the discount closed before it. Kill line: A daily close below $192 hands back the entire pre-print August advance and the shelf price held before the 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-20 target-raise cluster. Secondary: a 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print that trims the $45.9–$46.2B FY27 revenue guide, or shows cRPO growth below the +14% Y/Y Q1 pace. --- ### CSTL — Castle Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSTL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Mix-shift repair leg extended without new fundamental content: $29.62 on 2026-08-14 to $34.20 on 2026-08-21, with only an 08-17 Nasdaq Texas dual listing and an 08-20 conference schedule filed in between. TissueCypher +64% YoY still carries the story; the next public management appearance is Baird on 2026-09-15, the next print est. ~2026-11-03. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 surrenders the post-print shelf ($29.21 traded 2026-08-03, $29.62 close 2026-08-14) that the week ending 2026-08-21 cleared. Secondary: the 2026-09-15 Baird presentation comes and goes with no reaffirmation of the $365–375M FY26 revenue guide. --- ### CTOS — Custom Truck One Source, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, GPU cloud & neoclouds Thesis: Utility T&D / grid-capex cycle with CTOS as the laggard specialty-rental picks-and-shovels name; the June breakout to $11.36 has stalled, retracing ~10% to retest the ~$10 shelf into a binary 2026-07-29 Q2 print. Theme now maturing and price above most targets — a pullback-retest walking into an earnings gate, not clean momentum continuation. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.00 forfeits the June breakout shelf and the retest holding since 2026-06-18; secondary breaks: FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guided under the $415M floor at the 2026-07-29 Q2 print, rental utilization back under 78%, or a Platinum Equity block sale/secondary into the thin float. --- ### CVI — CVR ENERGY, INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Frame flipped since the 2026-08-08 note: a refined-products squeeze repriced CVI from $31.15 (2026-08-07) to $39.51 (2026-08-21), 0.6% off the 52-week high, on a record $102.20 diesel crack (2026-08-17) — not a company event. Consensus 12-month target is $31.40 with 0 Buys/4 Sells. Inside 30 days the price-setting input is weekly EIA distillate data, not earnings. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 hands back the post-2026-08-11 crack-spread advance and returns price to the pre-record range; secondarily, consecutive EIA distillate builds pulling the diesel crack off its 2026-08-17 record, or the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print showing refining margin per barrel materially under Q2's $9.94. --- ### CYRX — CryoPort, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CYRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-20 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Freight & logistics Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) split the read: revenue $49.0M beat $48.21M and FY26 guide affirmed at $192–196M with adjusted EBITDA crossing to +$0.4M, but commercial CGT growth halved to +9% YoY from +26%. The narrative leg is now the profitability crossover; the stock closed $15.12 on 2026-08-07, 8.8% under the $16.57 high, with no scheduled catalyst until ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 loses the 2026 breakout shelf and the 20-week EMA zone; secondary confirmation would be commercial CGT revenue failing to reaccelerate above +15% YoY at the ~November Q3 print, or any cut to the affirmed $192–196M FY2026 revenue band. --- ### DCTH — Delcath Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DCTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Post-print leg held and extended — 2026-08-21 close $17.14, 1.3% under the 52-week high of $17.36 — while the news line went quiet after the 2026-08-11 conference appearance. Nothing company-confirmed is dated until ESMO (2026-10-23) and the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.), so a self-funded 90%-gross-margin procedure ramp is now carried by flow at RSI(14) 74.1. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.00 retraces the whole advance off the 2026-08-06 print (2026-08-21 close $17.14, RSI 74.1); secondary condition: FY26 revenue guided beneath the $104M floor, or active centers materially short of ~37 at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### DFIN — Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DFIN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Mix-shift leg intact and untested since the 2026-07-30 Q2 print — software 44.3% of net sales, record 36.7% adjusted EBITDA margin — with no company headline in the three weeks since. Shares closed $48.23 on 2026-08-21, 15.3% under the $56.94 52-week high. Nothing dated resolves before the ~late-October Q3 report; Kill line: A weekly close below $44 — under the $44.48 print-day reaction low of 2026-07-30 and under both disclosed 2026 repurchase averages of $47.58 and $45.48; secondarily, a Q3 print at or under the $175M guide floor with capital-markets transactional net sales below $45M. --- ### DGII — Digi International Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGII/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-16 Themes: AI chips & memory, Bitcoin miners, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Hardware-to-ARR re-rating accelerating: the 2026-08-05 Q3 print put ARR at $191M (+52% YoY) with a record 29.1% adj-EBITDA margin, and FY26 revenue guidance jumped to $529–533M from $490–508M. Price closed 2026-08-14 at $85.12, 0.1% off the 52-week high and above two of three targets raised 2026-08-06, with no company catalyst until the ~November Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 (surrenders most of the 2026-08-06 earnings gap and drops back under Piper Sandler's raised $76 target); a full fill to the 2026-08-05 pre-print close of $72.75, or a November FY27 guide below the run-rate implied by the $138–142M Q4 range, ends the re-rating leg. --- ### DINO — HF Sinclair Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DINO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, M&A & special situations Thesis: Post-print leg extended rather than renewed: a fresh 52-week high at $97.32 (2026-08-21), +40.1% over three months, built on the 2026-07-28 beat ($5.31 vs $4.54), the Lubricants spin-off plan and the 2026-08-11 $5B Western Gateway FID. nothing resolves the margin question until the Q3 print (~2026-10-29 est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $86 (loses the $85-86 shelf that is both the published target-band floor and the 2026-08-11 insider purchase zone, returning price inside the pre-streak range), with secondary confirmation from consecutive EIA weekly gasoline and distillate builds narrowing the 3-2-1 crack, or the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print showing sequentially lower refining margin per barrel. --- ### DK — Delek US Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Record distillate cracks ($102.20/bbl diesel, 2026-08-17) converted a sold-off Q2 beat into a breakout: the 2026-08-21 close of $71.47 was up 11.60% in one session and a 52-week closing high, above the $64.00 12-analyst mean target. Attention is expanding, but no company binary resolves until the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print, so weekly EIA distillate prints carry the leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 hands back the entire post-record-crack advance and returns price to the early-August range; secondarily, the diesel crack retracing under triple digits on successive EIA distillate builds, or Q3 throughput printing under the 296,000–316,000 bpd guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) print. --- ### DNTH — Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: Complement re-rate has gone quiet: no company disclosure since the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, a fresh 52-week high at $115.96 on a lower RSI than the early-August one, and the next dated binary — MoMeNtum MMN top-line — not until December 2026. Roughly three months of empty calendar between here and the readout. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 fails the July breakout shelf (2026-07-09 close $100.03) and returns price to the pre-breakout base; secondary conditions: a company update dating CAPTIVATE Part B top-line in 2H'27 or later, or the December MoMeNtum MMN top-line arriving without a clean primary hit. --- ### DRTS — Alpha Tau Medical Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-20 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Medtech & diagnostics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Head-and-neck re-acceleration: a 2026-06-23 first-ex-US glioblastoma treatment drove a +17.9% breakout to new 52-week highs (~$12.56 on 7/11), reclaiming the $11.99 Tolmar equity shelf. The 2026-07-21 AHNS podium with complete Alpha DaRT + pembrolizumab HNSCC top-line is the dated binary that extends or breaks the leg. Kill line: A daily close below $11.60 relinquishes the reclaimed breakout shelf (the prior 52-week high and the $11.99 Tolmar equity strike) and points back toward the ~$8.95 pre-deal base; a soft or negative 2026-07-21 AHNS head-and-neck top-line read is the secondary thesis-break. --- ### DYN — Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DYN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2027-01-21 Thesis: maturing — nothing company-dated until the ~late-October Q3 print, then the 2027-01-21 PDUFA. Kill line: A weekly close below $20.50 — breaks the post-acceptance leg; secondary: an advisory-committee referral on the z-rostudirsen BLA, or the 2027-01-21 PDUFA passing without approval. --- ### ELE — Elemental Royalty Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Post-EMX royalty roll-up compounding fast: Q2 2026 revenue $23.8M vs $9.1M a year earlier, record 5,248 GEOs, guidance affirmed at 17,000–21,000 GEOs (2026-08-11), Vizsla Royalties silver leg targeted to close Q3 2026. Narrative accelerating, but the print is spent and RSI(14) was 88.5 at the 2026-08-21 close of $22.25. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.00 breaks the shelf built after the 2026-08-11 Q2 release; secondarily, a 2026 GEO guidance cut under the 17,000 low end or the Vizsla Royalties transaction failing to close by the end of Q3 2026. --- ### ELF — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Sell-side flipped from cutting to marking up in ten days — five PT raises 2026-07-10→07-17 (JPM $94, Canaccord $97, Citi $92, RJ $87, UBS $80) on the e.l.f. Hair launch and Rhode scaling, while the stock slipped to $72.25. Narrative re-accelerating against a falling price; the 2026-08-05 Q1 print settles which one is lying. Kill line: A weekly close below $69 loses the 2026-06-29 bounce low of $69.91 and re-opens the $48.82 52-week low; secondarily, an 2026-08-05 print that leaves FY2027 guidance at or under +12% growth would confirm the July target raises were front-running a deceleration. --- ### ELVN — Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Funded single-asset CML story broadening its shareholder base: Barclays initiated Overweight $78, William Blair Outperform and Mizuho raised to $73 all on 2026-08-18, yet the 2026-08-21 close of $59.82 sits 2.1% under the $61.11 high with RSI cooled from 76.4 to 57.5. Last new clinical data was 2026-06-11; nothing dated resolves before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $48.50 round-trips the entire August re-rate through the July post-EHA shelf; secondary, the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) restating ENABLE-2 initiation as 1H 2027 against repeated 2H 2026 guidance. --- ### ENTG — Entegris, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENTG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-26 Thesis: June's sentiment re-rate rolled over; the 2026-08-04 beat-and-raise re-based the story on numbers — Q2 sales $883.2M vs $835.5M consensus, Q3 guide $905–935M vs $879.8M — and drew three target raises on 08-05 (UBS $215). At $152.08 the stock is still 17.3% under the June high, so the earnings-confirmed leg has not been re-priced. Kill line: A weekly close below $140 erases the 2026-08-04 post-print advance and returns price to the pre-earnings July range; secondarily, Q3 sales tracking under the $905M guide floor at the ~2026-10-28 (est.) print, or the WFE cohort rolling to saturated. --- ### ENVA — Enova International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENVA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Credit-normalisation plus origination growth still working, but the repricing has stalled: $242.93 on 2026-08-21 is 8.5% under the $265.45 high with RSI 37.6 after a +54.2% three-month run. Two August filings cut funding cost (ABS priced 2026-08-13 at 5.88% senior; NC LOC facility to SOFR+5.00% on 2026-08-14) — yet nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $228 returns price inside the mid-July pre-print zone and gives back the entire post-Q2 advance; a Q3 net charge-off ratio above 7.6%, a net revenue margin at or under the guided 55% floor, or an OCC/Fed denial of Grasshopper would compound the break. --- ### EOLS — Evolus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EOLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Margin-inflection re-rating still paying: Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $84.1M revenue (+21% YoY) and a third straight positive adjusted EBITDA quarter, and price has since marked a new 52-week high at $8.60 (2026-08-21 close $8.39, RSI 77.3). No company-confirmed catalyst before the ~November Q3 print; the nearest hard date is the 2026-09-29 Section 232 pharma-tariff effective date for smaller manufacturers, and Jeuveau is imported from South Korea. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 surrenders the 2026-08-05 post-print gap and the 50-day average that read $6.52 on 2026-08-11, ending the re-rating leg. Secondary: a common-stock or convertible offering off the $250M shelf near the highs, or Q3 revenue growth under 11% YoY. --- ### ETON — Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ETON/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Q2 on 2026-08-13 resolved the binary upward — product sales $37.6M vs $27.1M consensus, FY26 guide to >$145M from >$120M — and four brokers raised targets inside four sessions. Accelerating, but priced into the top of the published targets. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 hands back roughly half the 2026-08-14 earnings gap and breaks the post-print re-rate; secondarily an ATM, secondary or S-3 takedown 8-K filed while price holds near the 52-week high, or Q3 product revenue printing below the $37.6M Q2 figure. --- ### EVER — EverQuote, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVER/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-06 Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-08-03 Q2 print resolved the plateau binary bullish: revenue $195.1M (+25% YoY) broke the three-quarter ~$190M band, adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.1M, and Q3 was guided $198–208M above the $201.6M consensus. The leg is now fundamental rather than technical — but price ($25.71 on 2026-08-07) sits below its December 2025 $27.87 high and on top of the $25.83 average target. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.82 gives back the reaction to the 2026-08-03 print and returns price under the June swing-high shelf. Thesis fully broken if Q3 revenue lands below the $198.0M guide floor, or adjusted EBITDA below $28.0M, at the ~early-November print. --- ### EXLS — ExlService Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services Thesis: Refinancing overhang cleared 2026-08-18 — a new up-to-$1.0B facility ($400M term loan, revolver to $600M, 2031 maturity) replaced the Citibank agreement that had $381.2M sitting in the current column — and EXLS broke its mid-$34s shelf to a $37.53 close on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) 71.1. Next dated test is the Q3 print, est. 2026-10-27; the 30-day window is empty. Kill line: A daily close below $34 breaks the August shelf the 2026-08-18 credit-facility leg lifted off ($34.89 on 2026-08-07, $34.90 on 2026-08-11) and reopens the untested 2026-07-29 gap toward $30.53; a Q3 print (est. 2026-10-27) guiding organic constant-currency growth below 13% would confirm the re-rating rested on one quarter. --- ### FA — First Advantage Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: Prediction markets & betting, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Aug 6 flipped the frame: Q2 revenue $448.8M/+14.9% vs $415.0M consensus, adj EPS $0.35 vs $0.28, and the first FY guide raise of the cycle ($1.67–1.71B). Needham upgraded to Buy/$28, RBC to $24 — targets moved above spot for the first time. A second leg on a labour-cyclical base that is still decelerating; the next test is payrolls, not the company. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 returns price inside the pre-print July range ($19.91–$22.49) and negates the Aug 6 earnings breakout; base revenue growth printing under 6.7% or a trimmed FY revenue range at the Q3 report would confirm the labour-cycle drag reaching the volume base. --- ### FET — Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Oilfield-equipment operating-leverage re-rating, now maturing: the 2026-07-30 Q2 beat ($1.16 adj EPS vs $0.56) and raised FY26 guide were reiterated at EnerCom on 2026-08-18 ($890M revenue, $120M EBITDA). Price made a $86.31 52-week high, then gave back 10.3% to close $77.42 on 2026-08-21, with no company datapoint due until the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 breaks the August shelf built after the 2026-07-30 guidance raise and the 2026-08-18 EnerCom reiteration; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-22 est.) landing at or under the $225M low end of guidance with the FY range unchanged or trimmed. --- ### FIGS — FIGS, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Growth re-acceleration re-rated the name on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print (revenue +28.8% to $196.6M, FY2026 guide to $757.318M, buyback doubled to $200M), and eleven sessions later the gap is unfilled — the 2026-08-21 close of $14.68 sits above the $14.26 post-print mark. Unresolved: 780bp of the 820bp gross-margin gain was $7.9M of IEEPA refunds, and Q3 (~2026-11-05, est.) is the first clean comparison. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.00 breaks the eleven-session shelf built between the 2026-08-07 close of $14.26 and the 2026-08-21 close of $14.68 and reopens the unfilled post-print gap; secondarily, any trim to the $757.318M FY2026 revenue guide at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### FORM — FormFactor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FORM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Probe-card pick-and-shovel to the HBM4 test ramp; after a parabolic run to a fresh $160.27 ATH (2026-06-30) on Russell 1000 inclusion, the 2026-07-02 chip selloff cut FORM ~24% to ~$121. HBM inflection intact (record DRAM quarter, second SmartMatrix customer), but the 2026-07-29 Q2 print is the binary that re-rates it. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 forfeits the post-Investor-Day recovery base and turns the July correction into a trend break; a Q2 revenue miss versus the $240M ±$5M guide, or SK hynix confirming a slower HBM4 ramp on its late-July call, would confirm it. --- ### FOSL — Fossil Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOSL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The 2026-08-12 binary resolved bullish: Q2 sales $209.7M beat a $199.3M consensus, gross margin expanded 490bps to 62.4%, and FY2026 guidance was raised on sales (-3%/-5%), adjusted operating margin (4-6%) and free cash flow (positive). But the $6.09 52-week high predates the print and RSI cooled from 71.0 to 43.5 — the turnaround is now proven and absorbed rather than newly discovered. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 unwinds the 2026-08-12 beat-and-raise reaction and returns price beneath the pre-print 2026-08-07 close of $5.38; secondarily, the Q3 print retracting any leg of the raised FY2026 guide (-3% to -5% sales, 4-6% adjusted operating margin, positive FCF) or deferring the Q4 return-to-growth framing. --- ### FROG — JFrog Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FROG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Software-supply-chain-security plus AI-agent "trust layer" narrative keeps re-rating: the analyst cluster now leads price above $100 (UBS Buy $110 Jul 2, Truist Buy $105 Jul 9), confirming the continuation tell flagged in June. Fundamentals accelerating (Q1 rev +26%, security 10% of ARR), but a fresh long is extended near 52-week highs with the ~Aug 6 Q2 print the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 loses the rising low-$80s 20-EMA and the prior $80.75 consensus shelf, breaking the momentum leg; a secondary break is the ~Aug 6 Q2 print cutting or merely reaffirming the FY26 $628M–$632M revenue guide, or the theme rolling to saturated with no fresh PT leadership above $110. --- ### FSLR — First Solar, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Solar & clean energy, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Section 232 supplied a new leg: the 2026-08-06 proclamation sets a $0.38/W minimum import price on modules from 2026-12-04, above the ~$0.36/W FSLR struck on Q2 US bookings. Baird upgraded 2026-08-11 with a target moved to $318 from $205. But the 2026-08-14 close of $225.56 is still under the 50-day $235.83 and 200-day $234.37 — headlines have re-rated, structure has not. Kill line: A weekly close below $208 surrenders the entire 2026-08-07 Section 232 advance and returns price to the pre-proclamation zone; reinforced if the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print shows a fourth straight backlog decline below 45.1 GW or new US bookings priced at or under the ~$0.36/W struck in Q2 2026. --- ### FSLY — Fastly, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSLY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity Thesis: The Q2 margin inflection finally got paid, five sessions late: shares moved ~21% on 2026-08-10 to $27.69 intraday, the highest since early 2024. Three insiders then disposed at $28.60–$30.00 on 2026-08-18 and the 2026-08-21 close was $24.95. The re-rating leg is in the price and nothing company-dated lands before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.50 fills the 2026-08-10 gap and retraces the entire delayed re-rating leg (the 2026-08-07 close of $22.96 is that shelf); secondary break is a cut to the FY2026 $732–746M revenue guide at the Q3 print, or an issuance off the August 2026 shelf. --- ### FTK — Flotek Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from $270–290M. Both catalysts have printed, RSI(14) is 71.5 and consensus PT $36.92 sits at spot. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 un-prices the 2026-08-03 PREPA award and the 2026-08-04 guidance raise; secondary break is the Q4 2026 PREPA equipment-deployment window closing with no equipment in service, or a FY2026 revenue guide trim at the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### FTNT — Fortinet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTNT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) resolved up — revenue $2.047B vs ~$1.89B, product +52% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $8.020–8.180B — but price has gone nowhere since: $161.95 on 07-31, $160.01 on 08-14, still 4.9% under the $168.29 high. The 44-analyst mean target is $160.86, essentially at spot, rating still Hold. Nothing Fortinet-dated until ~2026-11-04; CRWD (08-26) and PANW (09-01) set the group multiple. The narrative is maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $150 forfeits the 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-28 pre-print closing band and puts price under the June 2026 all-time high of $151.97; secondary break if the $168.29 52-week high is still unreclaimed after both the CrowdStrike (2026-08-26) and Palo Alto (2026-09-01) prints. --- ### GCT — GigaCloud Technology Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Post-print leg digesting, not breaking: after the 2026-08-06 Q2 beat ($411.6M, +27.6% YoY; GM 25.6% vs 23.9%) took GCT to a 52-week-high close of $53.25 on 08-07, ten sessions with no company headline cooled it to $49.65 with RSI(14) back to 60.8. Nothing company-dated lands before the ~November Q3 print, so the tape now trades on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $45 fully retraces the 2026-08-06 post-print gap and returns price to the $36–$39.55 band where the company repurchased its own shares; a Q3 revenue print at or under the $375M guide low end would confirm the fundamental leg broke with it. --- ### GEN — Gen Digital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Post-print leg holding on an empty calendar: Q1 FY27 (2026-08-06) beat and lifted FY27 to $5.375-5.475B, the 2026-08-17 ex-div session probed $27.41 and was reclaimed to $28.93 by 2026-08-21, and the $32.11 consensus has not moved since 2026-08-07. Nothing dated resolves the guide before the ~2026-11-05 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 forfeits the post-print leg, breaking the 2026-08-17 retest low close of $27.41 and the $27.63-$27.76 band of June-July closes now acting as the shelf. Secondary: Q2 FY27 revenue under the $1,325M guidance floor, or the FY27 $5.375-5.475B range held flat rather than raised. --- ### GERN — Geron Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GERN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Space economy Thesis: Narrative leg rotated on 2026-08-05/06: RYTELO revenue accelerated to $57.5M (+11% QoQ) and quarterly cash draw shrank to ~$14M from $60M, while management reframed IMpactMF's base case to the H2 2028 final OS analysis — so the self-funding commercial ramp is now the story and the dated binary is gone. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.30 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance off the July 2026 $1.20s shelf and restores the $1.04 low as the operative reference; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with net revenue under the $57.5M Q2 level or a return to a $50M-plus quarterly cash draw. --- ### GH — Guardant Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Q2 (7/30) beat and lifted FY26 to $1.340–1.360B, but the second target wave on 8/3–8/4 (Stephens $195, Piper $193, MS $185) again failed to clear Citi's $215 from 7/8. Fundamentals still stepping up while the sell-side ceiling has been static five weeks, the 7/30 shelf sits unpriced, and nothing is company-dated until the 9/15 Morgan Stanley fireside. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 forfeits the 3 June breakout shelf on which the July–August re-rate was built. Secondary: a shelf takedown priced at a discount to market, or the FY2026 range held at $1.340–1.360B rather than raised again at the Q3 print (~late October). --- ### GHRS — GH Research PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GHRS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-05 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-17 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Eli Lilly's up-to-$3.8B AtaiBeckley buy (2026-07-16) put a large-cap price on 5-MeO-DMT for depression; GHRS is now the last independent pure-play, with best-in-class inhaled GH001 Phase 2b data, that the sector is repricing as the next takeout. Phase 3 FDA alignment is the gate. Kill line: A weekly close below $26 gives back the 2026-07-16 Lilly-deal gap and the July breakout shelf, ending the repricing leg. Secondary: FDA declines Phase 3 alignment or reinstates a hold, or the psychedelic-M&A theme flips saturated with no follow-through deal. --- ### GRND — Grindr Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GRND/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) resolved the binary bullishly — revenue $138.1M +33% vs $132.4M consensus, FY guide to ~$540M/~$232M EBITDA, three PT raises 2026-08-07 — yet price faded from the ~$18 area on 2026-08-03 to a $16.01 close on 2026-08-14. Fundamentals accelerated, the bid did not; with no dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print, the read rests on the July shelf holding. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.50 forfeits the July shelf ($14.85–$15.69 closes) the pre-print advance launched from; secondarily, repeated failure to close above $17.94 through September leaves the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise fully absorbed with no dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. --- ### HIMX — Himax Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Analog semiconductors, Networking & optical, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Q2 beat and an above-consensus Q3 guide (2026-08-06) plus Baird's $43 target (2026-08-07) failed to hold a price — $13.79 close on 2026-08-21, under the $14.61 post-print close, 42.0% below the $23.79 high. WiseEye's first commercial product shipped 2026-08-18, but it is a WAFERLOCK smart lock, not glasses. No dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 fills the 2026-05-07 earnings gap and completes a full round trip of the AI-glasses leg into the pre-May range; secondarily, the "this fall" WiseEye smart-glasses launch reaching the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print with no named brand and no shipping product. --- ### HMY — Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HMY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Gold-miner margin leverage with a new copper leg: the 2026-08-21 trading statement pre-released FY26 EPS up 90–108% in rand on US$3,811/oz received vs US$2,195/oz AISC, and spot gold at $4,607/oz sits well above that realised price. The 2026-08-27 results carry FY27 cost and production guidance — the one number not yet public — into an RSI(14) 83.3 tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 breaks the August expansion leg that followed the 2026-08-21 trading statement; secondarily, FY27 guidance issued 2026-08-27 that puts AISC above US$2,400/oz or gold output below 1.4 Moz. --- ### HNI — HNI Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Steelcase synergy capture confirmed on the 2026-07-30 Q2 print — non-GAAP EPS $1.27 vs $1.04 consensus, FY2026 guide lifted to 20–25% growth from mid-teens — and the legacy-furniture value trap re-rated from $39.70 (2026-07-15) to $48.86 (2026-08-14). Narrative accelerating; tape extended at RSI 75.6 with no company catalyst until the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 hands back the bulk of the post-2026-07-30 re-rating leg and returns price to the $39–41 pre-print chop; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-27 est.) that walks back the mid-to-high-20s YoY non-GAAP EPS growth guide or shows Workplace Furnishings orders below the +5% YoY Q2 pace. --- ### HPK — HighPeak Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 (released 2026-08-10) answered the cash question: EPS $0.59 vs $(0.07) consensus on $272.4M revenue vs $232.2M, and the stock closed 2026-08-21 at $8.32, a 52-week high, versus $7.20 pre-print. The leg being bought now is the harvest half — ~69% of development work already done, capex falling, $30M/quarter amortization from end-Q3 — with no company event until the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.20 fills the entire post-2026-08-10 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print shelf; secondary, the Q3 print showing total debt no lower than the ~$1.19B carried at 2026-06-30, or H2 volumes guided under 41,000 Boe/d. --- ### HPP — Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The refi binary now has a filed date: the 10-Q (2026-08-10) puts the Hollywood Media Portfolio loan maturity at 2026-09-09 with the longer-term extension still unresolved. Q2 beat ($0.35 Core FFO vs $0.26) and three August target raises produced no price: $14.36 on 08-07, $14.50 on 08-21. Terms — or silence — on September 9 is the next swing. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 surrenders the June–August range and the floor of the $14–$18 analyst target cluster; secondary confirm is 2026-09-09 passing with no announced longer-term extension, or disclosed terms carrying a material equity paydown, cash trap or coupon above the 4.9% weighted average. --- ### HRI — Herc Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HRI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Second-order AI/power play: Herc rents the cranes and gensets that build data centers. Peer United Rentals raised FY26 guidance (2026-04-23), confirming an accelerating theme — but the stock sits +71% off its low and drifts into a binary ~2026-07-28 Q2 print that must convert H&E synergies and data-center demand into reported EBITDA. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 loses the rising 20-week EMA and the May–June recovery shelf; secondarily, net leverage above ~4.25x on the ~2026-07-28 Q2 print, or the FY26 adj-EBITDA guide cut below the $2.0B floor. --- ### HTZ — Hertz Global Holdings, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTZ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, EV & autonomous mobility, Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 2026-08-06 Q2 beat re-lit a squeeze the index deletion had just flushed: adjusted corporate EBITDA $81M cleared the top of a $50–80M guide, GAAP swung to +$64M, and the stock ran roughly 50% in two sessions amid 73.85%-of-float short chatter. It still trades under the $2.70 June offering shelf; the 2026-08-14 13F deadline is the next dated read on who actually owns it. Kill line: A daily close below $2.00 gives back the 2026-08-06 earnings gap and returns the tape to its pre-print regime; a secondary break is the San Francisco Bay Area AV go-live slipping past year-end with no dated launch. --- ### HURN — Huron Consulting Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HURN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: AI-disruption discount still unwinding, but the last leg bought nothing new: price ran from the 2026-08-07 close of $152.05 to $161.64 on 2026-08-21 with no guidance change since the 2026-07-28 beat-and-raise — just a fifth covering analyst and two 07-29 target hikes. No company event resolves anything before the unscheduled Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $132 unwinds the re-rating that followed the 2026-07-28 guidance raise; secondarily, FY2026 RBR guidance marked below the $1.85B floor, or organic RBR decelerating to mid single digits from 10.8%, at the Q3 print. --- ### ICLR — ICON plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Restatement discount still unwinding, now with a balance-sheet leg: on 2026-08-06 ICON priced $2.15B of unsecured notes to repay the bridge facility, all secured term loans and the 5.809% 2027 notes, releasing collateral. The 2026-08-21 close of $172.23 reclaims the $167 average 2025 repurchase price, but RSI is 67.2 and nothing is dated until the ~late-Oct Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $158 gives back the entire August advance off the 2026-08-03 close of $158.41 and puts price back under the $167 average 2025 repurchase price; a Q3 2026 print (~late Oct, est.) that trims the twice-affirmed $7.850-8.150B / $10.00-11.00 FY26 bands confirms it. --- ### IDYA — IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IDYA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Approval leg intact but between catalysts: the OptimUM-02 win (HR 0.42, ASCO 2026-06-01) feeds a rolling NDA under FDA RTOR guided complete H2 2026, and Q2 (2026-08-04) showed ~$1.24B cash with runway into 2030. Nothing company-dated until ESMO Madrid (Oct 23–27); the 2026-08-14 close of $36.30 sits 10.4% under the $40.51 high, RSI 46. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 breaks the post-OptimUM-02 base and marks a halfway retrace toward the $27.00 June offering price; secondary break is the darovasertib NDA not completing inside the guided H2 2026 window, or ESMO (Oct 23–27) passing without OptimUM-01 data supporting label expansion. --- ### IESC — IES Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IESC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Q3 FY26 (2026-07-31) resolved the post-index-inclusion fade in the bulls' favour — revenue $1.243B (+40%), backlog $4.53B (+91% since FY25 close), Communications +51% — and the 2-for-1 split distributing 2026-08-21 is the only dated event in the window. Offsetting it: a live resale shelf over Tontine's ~54% stake. Kill line: A weekly close below $690 loses the June $712 shelf and reverses the post-print leg; equivalently a weekly close below $345 once the 2-for-1 split distributes after 2026-08-21. Secondary: a priced takedown or block sale off the 2026-07-02 Tontine resale shelf. --- ### IKT — Inhibikase Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IKT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Tape has caught up to the story: after FDA Orphan Drug Designation (2026-07-23) and a Q2 print (2026-08-11) showing 43 sites live across 26 countries and $159.0M cash, IKT closed $2.41 on 2026-08-14, 2.4% off its 52-week high. What is re-rating is Phase 3 execution visibility; the IMPROVE-PAH readout itself is 2027–2028, so no near-term binary exists. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 — the 2026-07-14 RA Capital ATM print — breaks the financing shelf the re-rating stands on. Secondary: a new ATM tranche priced under that level, or a Q3 print leaving site/country counts flat at 43/26 with no dated Part A completion guide. --- ### ILMN — Illumina, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ILMN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations Thesis: Post-print give-back fully reversed: $187.96 on 2026-08-07 to a 52-week-high close of $219.40 on 2026-08-21 (+51.9% over three months, RSI 66.3) with no new operating news since the 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise. Price now sits above the ~$195–$199 average sell-side target, and nothing company-dated lands before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $196 puts price back inside the $188–$205 post-print range and marks the August breakout through the 2026-07-30 high of $205.10 as failed. Secondary: Q3 FY26 revenue under the $1.14B guide floor set 2026-07-30. --- ### IMAX — Imax Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Premium-large-format royalty narrative is maturing rather than breaking: price closed $52.74 on 2026-08-21, 1.8% off the $53.71 high, with RSI(14) cooling 74.5→55.5 since 2026-08-07 as Rosenblatt raised to $60 on 2026-08-10. No company number until the ~October Q3 print; the 2026-08-28 Dog Stars IMAX opening is the next read. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 gives back the August shelf built above the 2026-08-07 close and unwinds the post-Q2 repricing; a secondary condition is the 2026-08-28 Dog Stars IMAX opening landing at or below the $18–23M domestic forecast with no second sell-side target above $54 by October. --- ### IMOS — ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-23 Themes: AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Memory-cycle re-rating in an AI costume just re-accelerated: June 2026 revenue +37.2% YoY and Q2 +28.7% YoY (both records since 2014, reported 2026-07-10) erase the May deceleration scare, and price bought back the ~17% fade to sit ~$68 near the $73.97 high. The 2026-08-11 Q2 margin print is the binary on whether the ~13.8% gross margin follows the revenue. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 loses the June–July consolidation shelf the recovery to ~$68 launched from; a confirming break is July monthly revenue decelerating back below +20% YoY or Q2 gross margin compressing at the 2026-08-11 print, flipping the re-acceleration to mid-cycle digestion. --- ### INNV — InnovAge Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INNV/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-sanctions PACE turnaround got its first sell-side validation above market: KeyBanc to Overweight, $13 target, 2026-08-21. The 2026-08-21 close of $10.96 reclaims the $10.50 shelf lost on the 2026-08-11 close of $10.23. The 2026-09-08 Q4/FY2026 print — first FY2027 guidance, year-end census — is the binary, with 83% of shares registered for resale since 2026-07-31. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.50 forfeits the July–August shelf that the 2026-08-21 close of $10.96 reclaimed. Secondary: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA under the $85M guide floor at the 2026-09-08 print, or a 424B7 pricing beneath the prevailing quote. --- ### JRSH — Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JRSH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Sourcing-migration story now two-for-two on guidance: Q1 FY2027 revenue $50.23M (+26.7% YoY) beat consensus and the company's own guide on 2026-08-10, Q2 guided $49–51M vs $47.85M, DA Davidson to $6 on 2026-08-11. Since then the fundamentals stood still while price made a new 52-week high at $5.64 (2026-08-21 close $5.49, RSI 72.5) — extended, with only 2026-09-10 dated before the ~mid-November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.80 surrenders the advance the 2026-08-10 print produced and puts the $5.43 former-high shelf behind it; secondary, Q2 FY2027 revenue under the $49M guide floor or gross margin under 14% at the ~mid-November 2026 report. --- ### KEYS — Keysight Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEYS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-18 Thesis: Analyst-migration re-rate's second leg (Morgan Stanley to Overweight, PT $400, 2026-07-13) has stalled — silent tape near 28x forward, empty calendar until the ~2026-08-19 Q3 FY26 print. The $290–300 breakout-shelf entry hasn't come; current levels buy the tail. Theme accelerating, the KEYS expression maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $270 fills the 2026-05-20 earnings gap and voids the post-print breakout structure; confirmation from a Q3 FY26 book-to-bill back under 1.0, or a 2026 capex-guide cut at MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN in the late-July reporting block. --- ### KMTS — Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Wearable-defibrillator share-capture story accelerating: FY26 revenue $95.1M (+59%), fiscal Q4 $28.6M (+66%) with gross margin 54.8% vs 44.3%, plus JPMorgan's 2026-08-10 Overweight/$30 initiation. Price closed $26.99 on 2026-08-21, 4.8% off the 52-week high. The ~2026-09-10 Q1 FY27 print is the first test of the $137M FY27 guide (+44%, a deceleration). Kill line: A weekly close below $24 marks the post-guidance advance as failed (roughly 15% under the $28.35 52-week high). Secondary: the Q1 FY27 print around 2026-09-10 comes and goes with the $137M FY27 guide unchanged and prescription growth decelerating toward +44% YoY. --- ### KMX — CarMax Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Turnaround re-rating went live in July: KMX broke the $50–$53 shelf to close $57.33 on 2026-07-17 (+17.2% in five sessions) after a Q1 FY27 blowout (EPS $1.31 vs ~$0.95, revenue $8.01B +6.2%), CEO Keith Barr buying 9,400 shares at $53.005 on 2026-06-22, and Stephens flipping to Overweight with a $66 target. Consensus PT is $41.73 — 27% below spot — so the upgrade cycle is only beginning. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 fills the 2026-07-13/15 breakout gap, loses the July shelf, and voids the leg — that level is also where the CEO transacted on 2026-06-22. Secondary: a second consecutive quarter of retail GPU compression without comp-unit acceleration at the 2026-09-29 Q2 FY2027 print. --- ### KNSA — Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KNSA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-print commercial re-rating still working but no longer fed by new information: the 2026-07-28 FY26 ARCALYST guidance raise to $980–995M and the 07-29/07-30 target ladder are three weeks old, the 08-12 Canaccord fireside produced no new number, and price closed $79.03 on 2026-08-21, 2.3% under the $80.92 high with RSI 66.4. Next dated binary is the Q3 print, est. ~2026-10-27. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 (unwinds the 2026-07-28 guidance-raise gap and puts price back inside the pre-raise range); secondary break if the Q3 print, est. ~2026-10-27, reiterates or narrows rather than lifts the $980–995M FY26 ARCALYST guidance. --- ### KODK — Eastman Kodak Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KODK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Industrial power & grid, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AM&C inflection is now the entire story: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print put segment revenue at $105M (+40% YoY) and consolidated operational EBITDA at $36M vs $9M, and the ~$9.20 shelf reclaimed on that print has held — the 2026-08-21 close was $9.84 with daily RSI(14) cooling from 80.4 to 71.6. No company release or filing since the print, still no named offtake, and ~43.9M resale-registered shares sit overhead. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.20 surrenders the shelf reclaimed on the 2026-08-04 print and re-opens the July downtrend; secondarily, a Q3 print with AM&C revenue under the $105M Q2 level and still no named battery or pharma counterparty would recast the segment jump as a film-demand pulse. --- ### KRO — Kronos Worldwide, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KRO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: TiO2 earnings inflection printed 2026-08-05 (Q2 EPS $0.13 vs -$0.04 consensus, segment profit $41.0M vs $10.9M) is now two weeks old and consolidating rather than extending: 2026-08-21 close $8.20, 5.2% under the $8.65 52-week high, RSI 70.4. Headline flow stopped 2026-08-06; the only new input is Goldman's mid-August target raise to $8.00 with the Sell kept. Nothing dated resolves the pricing half until Q3 (~2026-11-04). Kill line: A weekly close below $7.40 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and ends the post-print re-rating leg; secondarily, Q3 2026 results (~2026-11-04, est.) showing TiO2 average selling prices flat or down sequentially would break the pricing half of the recovery thesis. --- ### LAD — Lithia Motors, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Semi foundry & equipment, Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Legacy dealer group re-rating on non-store earnings: the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat ($10.03 adj EPS vs $8.78) was carried by Driveway Finance while same-store revenue fell 1.6%. Since then only re-marking — Barclays $360 to $415 on 2026-08-19 — with price 13.1% under the $426.68 high, RSI 44.7, and no company-specific event before the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $340 unwinds the post-2026-07-29 advance and puts the stock under JPMorgan's standing Neutral target; a second consecutive negative same-store revenue comp at the Q3 print, with financing income again supplying the beat, is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### LBRX — LB Pharmaceuticals Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LBRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Single-asset schizophrenia binary where the sell-side frame flipped above the tape: BMO $54 (2026-08-12), Stifel $53 (08-13), Clear Street $69 (08-20) against a 2026-08-21 close of $47.62 and an $51.5 eight-analyst average. The 2026-08-11 Q2 print reaffirmed H1 2027 NOVA-2 topline and $327.8M pre-placement cash, but R&D jumped to $44.1M and nothing dated resolves inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $42.80 surrenders the early-August leg above the 2026-08-03 record close of $42.84; a second break would be NOVA-2 topline guidance restated to H2 2027 from the H1 2027 reaffirmed on 2026-08-11. --- ### LFST — LifeStance Health Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LFST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Bitcoin miners Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Margin-inflection pivot is delivered and now being repriced by the sell-side rather than by the company: BTIG went to $18 on 2026-08-19, price closed 2026-08-21 at $12.47 (2.8% under the $12.83 high, RSI 71.9, +68.7% in three months), and three insiders sold between 2026-08-10 and 08-14. No company-dated event until ~2026-11-05. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise gap and returns price into the pre-print July range. Secondary: the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) landing revenue under the $420M guide floor or trimming the FY $215–235M adjusted-EBITDA range. --- ### LIND — Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LIND/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Travel & leisure Thesis: Post-catalyst drift, not a broken story: the 2026-08-03 beat (revenue $199.2M vs $185.85M est, occupancy 91%) carried price to a $34.48 high, and with nothing scheduled before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print it has bled to $31.09 with RSI 36.1. Now purely an occupancy/pricing execution leg against a fuel-capped $130-140M EBITDA guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $26.56 fills the 2026-08-03 earnings gap and returns price to the June-July coil it broke out of; secondary: the ~2026-11-03 (est.) Q3 print guiding FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at or below the $130M floor, or occupancy back under the 91% Q2 level. --- ### LPG — Dorian Lpg Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-21 Themes: Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Hormuz truce collapsed 2026-07-08 — Iran re-struck shipping and re-closed the Strait, re-firing VLGC rates to fresh 2026 highs (BLPG3 $220/ton, TCE $125k/day, week of Jul 10). This pure-play VLGC name re-accelerated off its $36 late-June low as management pays out peak-cycle cash ($1.00 special div, $81.8M Corsair sale done Jul 8). Reflexive geopolitical event-trade — the freight spike is the trade, not a franchise. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 retraces the entire July re-closure bounce off the late-June swing low and signals the ton-mile premium is unwinding despite a shut Strait; secondarily, a durable Hormuz reopening (deep-water channel demined, transits normalizing) collapsing BLPG3 back toward $150/ton removes the freight-rate spike that is the entire trade. --- ### LRMR — Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRMR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Single-asset FA binary, now basing rather than breaking: the 2026-08-04 Q2 update held anaphylaxis at 10 of 43, reported no new urticaria after antihistamine premedication, and put cash at $156.3M with runway into Q3 2027. Rolling BLA completion is guided to 2H 2026 — the undated event that turns this into a dated one. Still no catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.80 breaks the twice-tested post-anaphylaxis shelf (2026-07-10 and 2026-07-22 lows) and turns the June selloff into distribution; secondarily, a Q3 update that pushes rolling-BLA completion out of 2H 2026, or an FDA refusal-to-file or rejection of the skin-FXN surrogate. --- ### MASS — 908 Devices Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MASS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Post-divestiture handheld chemical-detection pure play re-rating on the 2026-08-11 beat-and-raise (revenue $16.07M vs $15.37M est, FY floor lifted to $68–70M) plus Roth $13 / Stifel $12 target hikes on 08-12. The 2026-08-21 close of $10.68 is the 52-week high with RSI 86 and three insider/10%-owner sellers dated 08-04 through mid-August; next dated event is a 08-26 investor conference. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 gives back the post-2026-08-11 guidance-raise move (insiders transacted at weighted $9.03–$9.23 on 08-10/08-11, immediately pre-release). Secondary: the 2026-08-26 Midwest IDEAS appearance passing with no new order or AVCAD timing while the $10.68 high goes unrecovered. --- ### MAX — MediaAlpha, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) beat and the Q3 guide cleared consensus, yet price has drifted from $13.79 on the print to $12.94 on 2026-08-21, 9.3% under the $14.27 high. Two post-print target raises (RBC $15 on 08-05, Canaccord $17 on 08-12) against no company-dated catalyst until the ~late-October/early-November Q3 print — a maturing consolidation, not a fresh leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 ends the post-print consolidation and puts price back inside the July advance. Secondary: Q3 contribution margin under 14.5% versus 14.9% in Q2, or a third consecutive quarter with no disclosed autoinsurance.net economics at the Q3 print. --- ### MBX — MBX Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MBX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Single-asset execution story: oPTimize Phase 3 in canvuparatide is guided to start by 2026-09-30 and sites are already screening. Since 2026-08-15 the sell-side re-rated on no new data — consensus $88.36 across 12 analysts (2026-08-23) vs $62.55 across 11 on 2026-08-14 — while price eased to $66.33, 6.2% under the $70.70 high with RSI 54.6. Next hard data is Q4. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 forfeits the June all-time-high shelf the July–August advance launched from. Secondary: the guided Q3 2026 window elapsing on 2026-09-30 with no oPTimize first-patient-dosed announcement. --- ### MCS — The Marcus Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Theatrical-recovery narrative has cooled from overbought without breaking: RSI(14) 40.8 at the 2026-08-21 close of $29.57 versus 87.0 two weeks earlier, while domestic box office YTD widened to $6.868B, +20.2% YoY (Box Office Mojo, 2026-08-22). Well-known story, no company news since 2026-08-04, and nothing resolves before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $27.50 fully retraces the post-2026-07-30 advance and puts price under every published post-print target including B. Riley's $29; secondary — monthly domestic box office turning negative YoY in Sept/Oct 2026, or negative theatre comparable attendance at the ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print. --- ### MEI — Methode Electronics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Data-center power pivot is revenue-confirmed — record >$80M FY26 segment sales and an FY27 guide ($1.025–1.075B vs ~$952M Street) — but the post-print momentum leg has faded ~26% from the $20.38 high to ~$15. The re-rate is spent and the sell side has caught up; a loss-making, ~4x-levered instrument now sits mid-range with no binary until the early-September Q1 FY27 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 fills the post-earnings gap and forfeits the base the data-center re-rating launched from; a secondary break if the Q1 FY27 print shows the data-center power run rate stalling below ~$120M annualized or the theme flips to saturated. --- ### MGNI — Magnite, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGNI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-05) resolved the binary upward — CTV contribution ex-TAC $97.1M, +36% YoY, above the $90–92M guide; FY26 growth raised to 13–14% and eight target raises followed on 2026-08-06/07. The CTV/commerce-media compounding leg is accelerating, but it is priced at RSI(14) 85.7 with no dated financial event before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $21 fills the 2026-08-06 post-Q2 earnings gap and forfeits the re-rating. Secondarily, CTV contribution ex-TAC growth decelerating below ~25% YoY at the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) breaks the mix-shift core. --- ### MGTX — MeiraGTx Holdings plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The $400M Oberland royalty deal (2026-07-07) took dilution and runway risk off the table and spiked MGTX to a new 52-week high of $15.35 before a fade to ~$12.44 — a non-dilutive re-rate of a three-program AAV gene-therapy pipeline, but the next hard clinical binary (AQUAx2) is a year out in Q2 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 fails the reclaimed $11.85-$12.11 breakout and gives back the Oberland pop (spike was distribution); a weekly close below $9.00 ends the post-deal re-rate. Secondary: a clinical hold/CRL, AQUAx2 enrollment slipping past guide, or an Oberland tranche condition failing. --- ### MIRM — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MIRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-26 Thesis: Rare-disease franchise ran to a $125 ATH on FOP data, then cooled ~9% into a confirmed 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Base compounds (Q1 sales +43% YoY, FY guide $660–680M) with FOP PDUFA 2026-09-26 and HDV Phase 3 topline 2H26 stacked ahead — but sell-side has fully caught up, so the print is the near-term binary and the theme is now maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 breaks the post-June breakout structure and voids the momentum leg. Secondary: a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts the $660–680M FY guide, a zilurgisertib PDUFA setback near 2026-09-26, or an AZURE-1 Phase 3 topline miss in 2H26. --- ### MLKN — MillerKnoll, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MLKN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Thesis: July's stall under $23.18 resolved upward: new 52-week high $24.49, $23.83 close on 2026-08-14, with no new company data since the 2026-06-24 Q4 report. The leg is multiple expansion (~11.9x the $2.00 FY2027 midpoint) into Rule 144 notices dated 2026-08-04/05. Next company information is the ~2026-09-22 Q1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 retraces the entire August breakout and returns price to the July $21.30–$21.89 coil; secondary, the ~2026-09-22 Q1 FY2027 print landing inside or under the $0.33–$0.39 EPS guide with organic orders still negative YoY. --- ### MMED — MiniMed Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMED/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Carve-out re-rate extended: MMED closed $20.45 on 2026-08-21, through the prior $20.48 high, after Flex began U.S. shipment integrated with Abbott's Instinct sensor on 2026-08-17 — the last open product item. Reimbursement and integration are now printed; growth rate and split-off mechanics both resolve on 2026-09-01, when MiniMed and Medtronic report the same quarter the same morning. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.00 surrenders the entire post-Medicare-access, post-Instinct leg built in August; secondary: Q1 FY2027 on 2026-09-01 printing organic growth under the 8.7% Q4 FY2026 pace, a cut to the ~10% organic / ~16% adjusted-EBITDA FY2027 guide, or Medtronic pivoting from a split-off to a pro-rata spin into the ~10% float. --- ### MRNA — Moderna, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRNA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-10-23 Thesis: First-ever positive Phase 3 for an mRNA cancer therapy (INTerpath-001, 2026-08-19) re-rated MRNA 177.0% in one session to $174.38 and swapped the flu-vaccine binary for an oncology-platform story. The narrative is accelerating; the entry is extended — $145.13 sits above every post-event published target except UBS's $150, and the full dataset is not due until ESMO, 2026-10-23 to 10-27. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 breaks the entire post-INTerpath-001 range, leaving no traded shelf until the pre-data zone in the low $60s; secondary, ESMO (2026-10-23 to 10-27) passing without the full INTerpath-001 dataset, or a disclosed RFS hazard ratio materially weaker than KEYNOTE-942's 0.51. --- ### MYRG — MYR Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYRG/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: AI/datacenter power-buildout supercycle lifting grid/electrical contractors; MYRG confirmed it with a record Q1 and a late-June breakout to fresh ATHs (~$487) above the $484.71 shelf. Theme accelerating + cluster-confirmed, but the Q2 print on 2026-07-29 (~11 days out) is now the binary — the setup shifts from chasing extension to respecting the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $440 fails the June ATH breakout back into the $440–485 base; a close below $420 breaks the 50-day uptrend. Thesis also cracks if Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog prints under $2.84B or gross margin reverts below ~12%. --- ### NAVN — Navan, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NAVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Travel & leisure Thesis: The wait-for-base setup flagged in July resolved upward: NAVN reclaimed the $25 IPO price and cleared the $28.22 post-IPO high, closing $29.25 on 2026-08-14 with RSI(14) at 78.5. Margin inflection on +34% Q1 growth is now confirmed by TD Cowen's 2026-08-13 raise to $34. The undated Q2 FY2027 print lands into a stretched tape with price already at the consensus average target. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 gives back the IPO-price reclaim and returns the name to the July digestion range under offer-price supply; secondarily, a Q2 FY2027 print at or under the $219M guide floor with FY2027 left at $907–913M rather than raised. --- ### NEOG — Neogen Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEOG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Post-3M-integration cleanup is in the numbers after the 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise, but the re-rating has stopped extending: $11.95 close on 2026-08-21, a marginal new high at $12.15, RSI 50.8, no target change since Piper Sandler's $13 on 2026-08-03. The calendar is empty until the 2026-10-01 annual meeting and the ~2026-10-08 Q1 FY27 print; the ACCC Phase 2 ruling on the $160M Zoetis Genomics sale is the unscheduled swing factor. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 hands back the 2026-07-30 gap and puts the shares under both post-print closes ($11.47 on 2026-08-07, $11.95 on 2026-08-21); secondarily, an ACCC Phase 2 determination that blocks or structurally conditions the $160M Zoetis Genomics sale, removing the ~$140M behind the sub-3x leverage target. --- ### NESR — National Energy Services Reunited Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NESR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services Thesis: MENA national-oil-company capex via the only US-listed pure play; the 2026-08-05 $300M Kuwait award and the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat ($520.8M vs $446.97M) are fully in the tape. Headline flow stopped after the 2026-08-11 target raises and price is 9.0% off the 2026-08-14 high of $36.31 at $33.03 — still working, but nothing company-dated resolves until the ~2026-11-09 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 closes the 2026-08-10 post-print gap and hands back the Kuwait/Q2 re-rate in full; secondarily, Q3 2026 revenue printing under the Q2 $520.8M level or management walking back the ~$2B 2026 revenue minimum. --- ### NET — Cloudflare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) put a number on the agent-traffic toll thesis: revenue $696.1M +36% YoY vs a $664–665M guide, net retention 120% (+6pts), FY26 guide up to $2.864–2.870B — and six target raises to $346–400 followed. Narrative now maturing: the $2.175B 0% convert priced 2026-08-11 at a 60% premium is the company selling its own multiple, and nothing is scheduled until the 2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $290 retraces the entire post-Q2 earnings gap and returns price to the mid-July range that preceded the print. Secondary: the 2026-10-29 Q3 print landing FY2026 revenue inside the $2.864–2.870B guide with no raise, or dollar-based net retention slipping back from 120%. --- ### NGNE — Neurogene Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NGNE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Rett gene-therapy story is now fully financed — pro forma cash ~$360.2M after the July raise, runway into Q1 2029 — and the 2026-08-11 Q2 print added safety breadth (N=35 at 1E15 vg as of 08-10) but zero new efficacy. Next hard binary is Embolden topline in 2H 2027, so this is a de-risked narrative maturing inside a ~12-month event void. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 (loses the July 1 offering shelf and puts deal buyers underwater); secondarily any new HLH-type serious adverse event or clinical hold on NGN-401, or Embolden 2H 2027 topline guidance slipping at a quarterly print. --- ### NIQ — NIQ Global Intelligence plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NIQ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-10 flipped the frame: Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin 23.3% (vs 21.0% in Q1), FY26 adjusted EPS guided up to $1.08–1.12, net leverage 3.1x from 3.4x. The post-LBO deleveraging re-rate is now running, but +119.6% over three months, RSI(14) 95.0 at the 52-week high and no scheduled catalyst until ~2026-11-12 leaves the price ahead of the evidence. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.00 gives back the bulk of the 2026-08-10 post-print re-rate and returns price into the $15–$17 target band set on 2026-08-11; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-12) at or below the low end of the $1,105–1,108M revenue / $0.22–0.24 adjusted EPS guide, or net leverage failing to progress toward sub-3.0x. --- ### NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: M&A read-through re-accelerating: AbbVie's $10.9B Apogee buyout (June 22, 2026) reframed NKTR as the next takeout-able Treg-IL-2 atopic-dermatitis asset, driving a ~25% run off the June low to ~$70. It's sympathy optionality, not fresh company data — the real ZENITH-AD Phase 3 binary is ~2028. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the early-June reaction low near $57.32 and round-trips the AbbVie–Apogee read-through leg back into the dormant post-mania range; a secondary tell is the immunology-M&A theme flipping to saturated once the Apogee deal closes in Q3 2026 with no fresh bidder surfacing for Nektar. --- ### NRIX — Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NRIX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Roche-partnered BTK degrader moved from validation to execution: first patient in the registrational Phase 3 DAYBreak CLL-306 on 2026-08-04, RBC to $36 on 2026-08-10, price to a new 52-week high on 2026-08-14. Narrative still accelerating, but RSI(14) 81.3 into a catalyst vacuum — the next bexobrutideg efficacy dataset is ASH ~December. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 surrenders the post-Roche re-rating and the June breakout shelf that carried the $31–40 target cluster; secondary: the 2026-09-09/12 SOHO window passing with no bexobrutideg dataset, leaving the RSI-81 extension in a vacuum until ASH ~December. --- ### NSP — Insperity, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Q2 binary resolved constructively on 2026-07-29: adj EPS $0.34 beat $0.32, and the FY worksite-employee guide floor was raised to 305,000 from 303,000 — the first guide that did not cut volume. Margin-repair re-rating carried price to a $54.03 52-week high, running ahead of any disclosed HRScale revenue. No company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 unwinds the post-Q2 re-rating and puts price back inside the late-July pre-print range; a Q3 average-paid-WSEE print under the 305,500 guide floor, or an FY adjusted-EBITDA guide cut back below $185M, would confirm the volume and margin repair did not hold. --- ### NTSK — Netskope, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NTSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Sell-side caught up to the post-lockup repair leg — six coverage actions between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-21 lifted the average target from $16.11 to $17.25 — while the tape stalled at $14.51 (2026-08-21) versus $14.87 on 2026-08-07. The 2026-09-02 Q2 FY2027 print decides whether the re-rate extends or those targets mark the ceiling. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.50 fails the reclaimed ~$14 breakdown shelf and voids the post-lockup repair leg; secondary, the 2026-09-02 Q2 FY2027 print landing ARR growth under ~25% or leaving the $879–883M FY2027 guide un-raised. --- ### NVCR — NovoCure Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVCR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-TRIDENT commercial-inflection leg intact but undated: the 2026-07-23 Q2 print (rev $183.584M vs $172.437M cons., first positive adj. EBITDA $10.8M, FY guide to $710–725M) still sets the frame, and on 2026-08-22 Zacks flagged upward EPS revisions with none down over two months — first evidence the post-miss estimate cuts stopped. Price $17.10 (2026-08-21), 14.5% under the $19.99 high, nothing dated inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.40 erases the 2026-07-23 Q2 gap and returns price to the pre-print June band ($14.46 low, ~$15.43 late-June area); secondary breaks are the Q3 print (~2026-10-22, est.) reaffirming rather than raising the $710–725M FY guide, or the METIS PMA decision slipping out of Q4 2026. --- ### NXT — Nextpower Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-13 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Falling knife has based and turned: after a -34% unwind from the $163 high to a ~$107 June base, a fresh cluster (Truist initiate Buy $140 07-14, Guggenheim upgrade Buy 07-15) plus a 07-15 surge is re-rating the M&A-drift story. The ~2026-07-29 Q1 print is the binary that confirms or kills the turn. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 breaks the June reversal base and signals the upgrade-driven bounce has failed, reopening the early-2026 shelf in the mid-$80s; a first PT cut that ends the sell-side cluster or a soft ~2026-07-29 Q1 print seals the flip back to distribution. --- ### OII — Oceaneering International Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OII/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Physical AI & robotics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Offshore earnings inflection (Q2 adj EBITDA $115M, FY guide $400–440M) is now fully re-rated: Citi's 2026-08-11 raise to $52 puts the anchor target at the tape, closing the sell-side gap that drove the July leg. Price $52.20 on 2026-08-14 with RSI 50.1 and three insider sales 07-30 to 08-07. Narrative maturing; next binary is Q3 in late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 re-enters the 2026-07-22 earnings gap and forfeits the post-print consolidation band; a Q3 adjusted EBITDA print under the guided $115–125M in late October would confirm the cyclical leg is rolling over. --- ### OMDA — Omada Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OMDA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-print re-rating has stalled into a two-week range — $23.89 on 2026-08-21 versus the $26.78 52-week high — after Q2 (2026-08-06) beat at $87.8M revenue (+43%) and lifted the FY guide to $334–340M. The 2026-09-10 first-ever Investor Day is the next binary: GLP-1 prescribing, Flex Care and the cholesterol program, all excluded from guidance, either get a dated ramp or stay unmodelled. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 gives back the entire post-print leg and puts price under the mid-July shelf ($23.44 on 2026-07-14, $23.70 on 2026-07-17); secondarily, the 2026-09-10 Investor Day passing without a dated contribution path for GLP-1 prescribing, Flex Care or the cholesterol program. --- ### ONC — BeOne Medicines Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Q2 print resolved bullish — revenue $1.705B vs $1.591B est., non-GAAP EPS/ADS $3.84 vs $1.44, FY26 guide raised to $6.6–6.8B — but the stock is still 7.9% under the $377.47 52-week high and the 2026-08-06 target wave was increments, not re-rates. Franchise compounding intact; the narrative is maturing with an empty 30-day calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $315 retraces the entire post-Q2 advance and loses the late-July shelf near $326; secondary: BRUKINSA US growth printing below the mid-20s% YoY at the Q3 report (vs +31% in Q2), or the FY26 guide merely reaffirmed at $6.6–6.8B. --- ### OPRT — Oportun Financial Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPRT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Margin-repair turnaround stalled at the highs rather than broken: after the 2026-08-05 Q2 beat ($0.42 adj EPS vs $0.33, adj EBITDA $49M vs a $34-39M guide) and an FY EBITDA raise to $160-175M, the stock peaked at $8.09 on 2026-08-07 and closed $7.50 on 2026-08-21 with RSI still 72. Officer Form 144 on 2026-08-12; no dated company catalyst until the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 ends the post-Q2 re-rating leg; secondarily, at the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, an annualized net charge-off rate above the 12.0% top of the FY 11.7% +/- 30bp band, or the FY2026 adjusted EPS guide of $1.50-$1.65 being cut. --- ### ORKA — Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORKA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Supply overhang cleared: the 2026-07-01 Fairmount $300M block at $84.43 was absorbed and price closed $92.70 on 07-17 (+11.6%), 5% off the 52-week high, with 19.85% short interest still rising. Long-acting I&I re-rated by the $10.9B AbbVie-Apogee comp; H2-26 EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data is the undated next binary. Kill line: A daily close below $82 breaks the July absorption shelf where the $84.43 Fairmount block was digested, reclassifying that print as distribution; a weekly close below $72.50 (May follow-on price) reopens the supply thesis. Secondary: EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data slipping from H2-2026 into 2027. --- ### OWL — Blue Owl Capital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OWL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Private-credit-stress bottom trade now digesting: price -1.7% from the 2026-08-07 close while RSI(14) unwound 83.9 to 58.1, and term funding reopened with $750M of 6.750% 2036 notes priced 2026-08-12. Nothing resolves the redemption question until the Q3 OCIC tally set at 2026-09-30 quarter-end. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.50 gives back the post-Q2 re-rating band and returns price to the July private-credit-stress range; secondarily, the Q3 OCIC repurchase disclosure showing redemption requests back above Q1's 21.9% of shares or a pro rata fill below Q2's roughly 27%. --- ### OXM — Oxford Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OXM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-09 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Setup inverted since the June breakdown. OXM reclaimed its 200-day ($39.11) and 50-day ($39.94) off the $35.83 low, the CEO bought 2,500 shares at $36.90 on 2026-06-12, and ~$25M of filed IEEPA tariff-refund claims — 4% of market cap, excluded from guidance — is landing as cash into a 20.7% short float. A special-situation cash-recovery leg, not an accelerating consumer narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 breaks the July base, puts the 200-day ($39.11) back overhead and turns the reclaim into a failed bounce. Secondary: Phase 2 IEEPA refund process not established by the September Q2 call, or a dividend cut, removes the quantified catalyst. --- ### PBF — PBF ENERGY INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Post-Q2 refining super-margin narrative has matured into a sell-side target chase — Goldman $71 → $81 on 2026-08-18 — while the >10% holder sold five tranches between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-17, the last at $74.79 into the $75.20 high. With no company event between the 2026-08-28 dividend and a late-October print, this trades on Hormuz headlines for two months. Kill line: A weekly close below $66 gives back the entire August structure and returns price to the July zone where the 10% holder was still filling at $63.50–$67.02; a signed Hormuz transit arrangement, with Brent holding under $80 and diesel cracks off record levels, is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### PCOR — Procore Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCOR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Post-2026-07-29 re-rating (Q2 double beat, first GAAP operating profit, FY27 25% margin target, $845M DroneDeploy deal) has extended to $63.49 on 2026-08-21 with no new information behind it — no press release since 2026-08-06, no rating action since 2026-08-03, RSI(14) 73.2, and nothing dated until Groundbreak on 2026-10-21. Kill line: A weekly close below $58.74 gives back the entire newsless 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-21 extension and returns price inside the post-financing range; secondary confirm is a Q3 report (~2026-10-29 est.) that trims the $1.510–1.514B FY26 range or qualifies the FY27 25% non-GAAP operating margin target. --- ### PCTY — Paylocity Holding Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCTY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-20 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Post-print re-rating leg: the 2026-08-04 Q4 FY26 beat ($1.84 adj. EPS vs $1.61 est.) triggered five price-target raises in 48 hours and a $150.42 close on 2026-08-07, +35.5% over three months. The buy is multiple recovery in mid-cap HCM software, paid for against an FY27 guide that steps recurring growth down from 12.2% to ~8%. Kill line: A weekly close below $140 (fills the 2026-08-04 post-print gap and returns PCTY to its pre-earnings range); secondarily, any cut to the $1.777B FY27 recurring & other revenue floor at the Q1 FY27 print in late October. --- ### PD — PagerDuty, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-13 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: The read has flipped from value trap to ownership story. Price reclaimed the 200-DMA (~$10.30 on 2026-07-17, +13% in three weeks), Truist lifted its PT to $11 on 2026-07-09, and the 2026-07-14 addition of Alex Shootman — who sold Workfront to Adobe for $1.5B and Eloqua to Oracle for $900M — layers M&A optionality onto an existing Scalar Gauge cooperation agreement. Top line is still +1% YoY; what re-rates is the exit path, not growth. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 gives back the July re-rate leg and puts price back under the 200-DMA with no strategic bid priced in; secondarily, a Q2 FY27 print (~early Sept 2026) with NRR still under 100% and no board/strategic follow-through returns this to a flat-ARR value trap. --- ### PENG — Penguin Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-08 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q3 (July 7) broke the model wide open: revenue $478.7M vs $405.5M consensus (+48% YoY), EPS $0.84 vs $0.54, FY26 growth guide lifted 12%→22% and FY27 pre-guided ~30%. The stock then round-tripped from $89.86 to ~$60 on the $750M zero-coupon convert — a mechanical arb unwind sitting on the 50-DMA, with fundamentals re-rated, not impaired. Kill line: A daily close below $58 breaks the June higher-low shelf ($59.86 June 7 low) and the 50-DMA at ~$60.77, turning the convert washout into a trend change. Secondary: any walk-back of the ~30% FY27 growth framework at the Q4 print (~October). --- ### PENN — PENN Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) kept the digital turnaround on schedule — interactive adj-EBITDA loss $9.5M (+$52.5M YoY), Q4-2026 profitability target and $1.963B retail EBITDAR midpoint intact — but the tape decoupled: prediction-market headlines took the sector down, leaving the 2026-08-14 close at $18.79, RSI 23.7, sitting on the $18–19 shelf. Whether that shelf holds is now the whole read. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 forfeits the shelf built off the $11.65 low; secondary: the Q4 2026 interactive positive-EBITDA target slipping to 2027, or the FY26 interactive adj-EBITDA loss guide widening from $20M, at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. --- ### PGEN — Precigen, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-07 Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: PAPZIMEOS launch-ramp durability is the binary — the first FDA-approved RRP therapy printed $21.6M net product revenue in Q1 2026, and the now-confirmed Aug 4 Q2 print (announced Jul 21) grades whether the ramp compounds sequentially or was an early bolus into ~400 hub-enrolled patients. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.50 breaks the spring launch-ramp base; a sequential PAPZIMEOS revenue decline below Q1's $21.6M at the Aug 4 print, or the end-2026 cash-flow breakeven guide slipping, would confirm a bolus rather than a durable ramp. --- ### PK — Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The 2026-08-06 binary resolved upward — Q2 AFFO $0.70 vs $0.59 consensus, FY26 guide lifted to AFFO $1.90–$2.00 and RevPAR +3.0%–4.5%, July RevPAR tracking +8.5% Kill line: A weekly close below $13.00 forfeits the June–July reopening breakout structure the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise defended; secondary confirmation if the Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) cuts FY RevPAR back below the +3.0%–4.5% guide or Adjusted FFO under $1.90. --- ### PLMR — Palomar Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLMR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Beat-and-raise did not hold: Q2 (2026-08-04) printed GWP $630.5M +27% YoY, adjusted EPS $2.36 and a third FY26 guidance raise to $270–280M, yet the 2026-08-14 close is $128.21 against a $145.29 52-week high with RSI(14) 29.8. Earnings keep compounding while the multiple de-rates with the P&C group; the $125 shelf decides pullback versus failed breakout. Kill line: A weekly close below $125 turns the July breakout into a failed one and returns price to the pre-breakout range (post-Q1 base near $120); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03, est.) with GWP growth under ~20% or an adjusted combined ratio above 85%. --- ### PLPC — Preformed Line Products Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLPC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: The July rollover read was voided by the 2026-07-29 Q2 print: sales $212.7M vs $193M consensus, EPS $4.49 vs $2.41, and a ~30% one-session repricing to a new all-time closing high of $480.77 (2026-08-11). Grid/AI-power second-order narrative is accelerating again on reported numbers — with RSI 73.3, the buyback finished, and the next scheduled binary ~10 weeks out. Kill line: A weekly close below $415 surrenders the June 2026 all-time high at $414.35 that the post-print gap converted to support, reopening the untraded void down to the $326–$335 pre-print shelf; secondary break is a Q3 2026 print (~2026-10-28 est.) with sales under the $212.7M Q2 bar or gross margin back toward Q1's 31.3%. --- ### PNRG — PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PNRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-09 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: Geopolitical crude bid re-fired after the 2026-07-08 US strikes and Hormuz blockade — WTI back to ~$80 from $68.86, PNRG +8.9% MTD to $186.51 and above the 200-day. Structurally better than June: GCX in-service flipped Waha gas positive, killing the -$0.40/Mcf drag that halved Q1 earnings. Cyclical trend reclaim, not a vertical narrative. Kill line: A daily close below $171 surrenders the base this July leg launched from and confirms the crude premium has deflated a second time. Secondary: WTI sustaining under $70 on US-Iran de-escalation, or the 2026-08-19 Q2 print showing realized gas still negative despite GCX in-service. --- ### PPTA — Perpetua Resources Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PPTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Funded domestic-antimony story re-accelerating on the 2026-07-30 US Army/INL pilot plant and the 2026-08-06 gold-tungsten discovery (21.3 m @ 3.2 g/t Au, 0.9% W). But the 2026-08-14 close of $25.24 sits 32.2% under the $37.22 52wk high with RSI(14) at 80.4 into an imminent, date-unconfirmed Q2 print — a stretched second leg that has not reclaimed the May EXIM-approval high. Kill line: A weekly close below $21 unwinds the entire August discovery-driven advance; secondary break if the Q2 print passes with no dated EXIM documentation timeline for the approved $2.9bn facility. --- ### PRCH — Porch Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRCH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Reciprocal-pivot re-rate has largely printed: $9.26 (6/5) to $15.98, now consolidating at $13.68 after KBW's 7/13 valuation downgrade that still raised its target to $16.25. Narrative intact but maturing; the 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether RWP tracks the $600M FY26 target and surplus keeps compounding past ~$165M. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 surrenders the late-June upgrade-cluster shelf and returns the stock to the middle of its June base. Secondary: an FY26 revenue guide cut below the $495M floor at the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, or statutory surplus reported below the ~$165M Q1 level. --- ### PRGS — Progress Software Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-13 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: AI enterprise software, M&A & special situations Thesis: Disciplined software roll-up ("Total Growth Strategy") re-rated by a fresh catalyst cluster: Q2 beat + FY guide raise (2026-06-30) and the $400M Domo buy (2026-07-22). Special-situations theme active, but a maturing low-beta compounder — structurally supported on a pullback to the breakout retest, rather than on the +11.7% extension. Kill line: A weekly close below $37 fills the 2026-07-01 post-earnings gap and voids the breakout shelf; a Domo deal break or the M&A-special-situations theme flipping to saturated with a dry target pipeline confirms the re-rating has stalled. --- ### PRM — Perimeter Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Managed care & health services, M&A & special situations, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Monopoly wildfire retardant (PHOS-CHEK) into a season at national Preparedness Level 5 — 3.85M acres burned YTD (NIFC, 7/18), ~157% of the 10-yr average. JPM initiated Overweight $50 on 7/9, lifting the 4-analyst average target to $45. Price has backed off the $38.17 high to ~$34.42 and is basing above the June shelf ahead of a binary Q2 print (~Aug 6). Kill line: A weekly close below $33 breaks the June breakout shelf and the $33.16 mid-July low, putting price back inside the pre-breakout range. Secondary: NIFC YTD acres-burned decelerating back toward the 10-yr-average pace through August, or a Q2 print (~Aug 6) that fails to extend the +74% revenue / +128% adj-EBITDA Q1 trajectory. --- ### PTGX — Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-05 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: De-risked dual-royalty story accelerating into a binary: icotrokinra (oral IL-23, J&J) already approved and paying 6–10% royalties; rusfertide (PV, Takeda) into a Q3 2026 PDUFA. Stock at a fresh ATH ($143.29, Jul 20) as the PV theme runs — the rusfertide decision is the accelerant, but a fresh chase sits above the $125 consensus PT with a lumpy Q2 print ~Aug 3. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 loses the July breakout shelf that launched the pre-PDUFA momentum leg. Secondary: a rusfertide Complete Response Letter, restrictive label, or delay at the Q3 2026 PDUFA, or divesiran's August 2026 Phase 2 data undercutting rusfertide's first-in-class premium. --- ### PUBM — PubMatic, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PUBM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Ad-tech SSP growth inflection re-rated as an AI story: Q2 2026 revenue $78.593M (+11% YoY) beat a $68.875M consensus and the Q3 guide of $75–77M cleared $71.092M consensus. Two weeks on, the 2026-08-07 gap has held — the 2026-08-21 close of $16.41 sits 7.7% under the 52-week high at RSI 72.8 — but no company-controlled event marks the guide before the early-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.20 hands back the majority of the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and returns price toward the $13.43 pre-print shelf; secondarily, Q3 revenue printing beneath the guided $75M floor at the early-November report would confirm the acceleration was a comparison artifact. --- ### PVLA — Palvella Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PVLA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: First-approved-therapy-for-microcystic-LM story still working: the 2026-08-04 Q2 update reaffirmed rolling-NDA completion in H2 2026 and potential approval H1 2027, and the stock closed $156.13 on 2026-08-14, 1.0% under its 52-week high. The regulatory binary remains undated, so the next leg has no fuse inside 30 days while price sits far above the $137.39 50-day. Kill line: A weekly close below $137 forfeits the rising 50-day and the post-Q2 advance; a secondary break is the 2026 calendar ending without the completed rolling NDA submission, or an FDA refuse-to-file. --- ### QNST — QuinStreet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QNST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: The Aug 6 binary resolved up: Q4 revenue $373.9M (+43% YoY) beat $359.9M consensus, FY2027 guided to $1.45–1.55B revenue / $150–160M adj EBITDA, and the stock gapped +35.9% on Aug 7 to a fresh 52-week high of $22.02. Carrier ad-spend narrative is accelerating on fresh headlines, but the $22.40 average Street target sits ~9% above the 2026-08-14 close of $20.50 with RSI(14) at 74.6. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 fills the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and forfeits the pre-print July high near $17.2. Secondary: a trim to the $1.45–1.55B FY2027 revenue guide at the ~November Q1 print, or a MediaAlpha/EverQuote Q3 guide showing carrier ad spend rolling over. --- ### QTWO — Q2 Holdings Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QTWO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: Post-print re-rate has stalled into consolidation: the 2026-07-29 beat-and-raise (FY26 $881–886M, 28.6% adj. EBITDA margin, +$350M buyback) still stands, but no analyst action since 2026-07-31, RSI decay from 70.4 to 55.6, and two officer 10b5-1 sales on 08-10/08-13 mark the narrative maturing with no dated catalyst before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 gives back the 2026-07-29 re-rate leg and puts price under JPMorgan's $60 target of 2026-06-22; secondarily, the Q4 2026 general-availability window passing with no dated GA announcement for Q2 Assistant and Q2 Code. --- ### RAPP — Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAPP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: RAPP broke to all-time highs at $42.62 (2026-07-17, +6.2%) on zero company news — the move is pure sell-side re-rating (BTIG reiterated Buy/$65 on 7/16, consensus PT $56.64, 12 desks Strong Buy) with Phase 3 FOCUS now enrolling globally. Price confirms the platform re-rate, but the next data binary (bipolar-mania Phase 2 topline) is Q4 2026, leaving a one-quarter void under a stock at its highs. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 fails the June–July breakout above the prior $42.27 shelf and loses the rising 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: an 8-K disclosing a RAP-219 clinical hold or new SAE (single molecule, correlation ≈1 across all four indications), or bipolar-mania Phase 2 topline slipping out of Q4 2026 at the 2026-08-06 Q2 update. --- ### RCKT — Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCKT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: First clean RP-A501 datapoint in 15 months — three Danon patients dosed at the recalibrated 3.8×10¹³ GC/kg with no TMA or capillary leak (2026-08-03) — turned a bleeding chart into a mid-range one. The re-rate still needs the undated H2 2026 FDA pathway update; $283.7M cash at 6/30 funds into Q2 2028. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 gives back the post-2026-08-03 safety-update range and re-opens the $2.53 low. Secondary breaks: the Danon regulatory-pathway update guided for H2 2026 passing 2026-12-31 still undated, or an equity raise well ahead of the stated Q2 2028 runway. --- ### REAL — The RealReal, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/REAL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Thesis: The 2026-08-06 binary resolved bullish — record GMV $617M (+22%), adj EBITDA $13.5M at a 7.0% margin, FY GMV guide lifted to $2.535–2.565B — and the tape did not re-rate: $11.40 on 2026-08-14 versus ~$11.37 on 2026-07-23, still 32.5% under the 52-week high. Fundamentals accelerating, price flow moderating, ~$13 shelf unbroken, and no company catalyst until the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.00 gives back the ground held through the beat-and-raise and breaks the recovery structure off the sub-$5 low; secondary condition is the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) cutting the FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA range of $66–69M or landing GMV under the $610M low end of guide. --- ### RELY — Remitly Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RELY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Operating-leverage leg still working: Q2 on 2026-08-05 delivered Adjusted EBITDA +79% on revenue +20% and a raised FY guide of $1.978–1.988B / $410–415M. Since then the only new information has been supply — directors sold 2026-08-12 through 2026-08-18 at weighted averages of $25.59–$26.53 — while price closed at a new 52-week high of $26.67 on 2026-08-21. Nothing company-dated until the ~November Q3 print; 2026-09-09 Communacopia is the next microphone. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 unwinds the post-print $23.50–$25 shelf and returns price to the pre-earnings range; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances passing without a corridor-volume or margin datapoint, or any trim to the $410–415M FY Adjusted EBITDA guide at the Q3 print. --- ### RLAY — Relay Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLAY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Coverage-driven leg intact but thinning: HC Wainwright's $29 raise (2026-08-20) was the fourth in 14 days and the first that failed to make a new high, with the 2026-08-21 close at $19.44 versus a $20.75 52-week high. No dated company event before year-end. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.50 loses the $17.33 prior 52-week high that has floored the post-June range and ends the coverage-driven leg; secondary breaks: disclosed ATM issuance near $20, or the year-end 2026 ReDiscover-2 enrollment update arriving vague or slipped. --- ### RMAX — Re/Max Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Merger arb that finally got a date. DOJ granted HSR early termination 2026-07-13 and both special meetings are set for 2026-08-14, removing the regulatory leg. RMAX $11.10 vs ~$11.86 blended (5.150 REAX at $2.21 plus the prorated $13.80 cash pool) — roughly 7% over six weeks. The residual risk is unhedged REAX beta, not deal failure. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the post-HSR arb floor and implies REAX back under $1.80 or fresh doubt on the vote. Secondary: either shareholder meeting on 2026-08-14 failing to approve, or the meetings being adjourned without a new date. --- ### RPD — Rapid7, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RPD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI enterprise software Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-10) flipped RPD from a pure take-private probe to a cost-out re-rating: ARR still -2.0% YoY at $824M, but EPS beat $0.44 vs $0.35, a 12% headcount cut targets 20% Q4 operating margin, and FY26 EPS guide went to $1.78-1.83. Twelve targets raised 08-11/12 into a $9-15 band; the $13.00 close is already above their $12 median, with the unconfirmed sale process the remaining unpriced leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.20 gives back the entire post-Q2 re-rating and puts price back inside the July $10.60–11.20 shelf; secondary break is a public confirmation that the Goldman/JPMorgan process ended with Rapid7 remaining independent. --- ### RRGB — Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRGB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Deleveraging turnaround repricing: ~$96M / 116-unit refranchising cuts net debt ~$147M→~$51M, removing the going-concern tail that pinned RRGB near $2.46. Tape +38.7% since the ~2026-05-20 Q1 print, into the low-$7s near the $7.89 high. Accelerating but idiosyncratic; late-Aug refranchising closes plus the Q2 print are the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 fills the post-Q1 breakout gap and forfeits the June–July shelf, ending the deleveraging re-rate; a slipped, repriced, or broken Evergreen/Kuber refranchising close (~Aug 21/28) is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### SCZM — Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SCZM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Small-cap value rotation, Bitcoin miners Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Silver-zinc producer re-rating: Nasdaq debut 2026-01-21, Glencore's US$40M base price cleared October 2025, Q1 2026 revenue $127.5M (+81% YoY), Q2 silver output +17% QoQ. RSI(14) 80.5 on the 2026-08-14 close of $8.85 after a flat quarter — the unreported Q2 financials (~2026-08-28 est.) are what prices next. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.80 unwinds the July–August impulse and returns price into the three-month band that netted only +1.7%. Secondary: Q2 2026 financials (~2026-08-28 est.) printing AISC above Q1's $31.60/oz with no sequential revenue growth off $127.5M. --- ### SE — Sea Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Emerging markets, Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Three-engine re-acceleration — Shopee GMV +30%, Monee loan book +71%, Garena's best quarter in 5 years — drove a Q1 beat (2026-05-12) and a +19% one-month recovery off the $77 low. Fundamentally accelerating, but the stock is short-term extended above the July 1 Bollinger break and still ~48% under its $199 high, with the Q2 print (~Aug 11) as the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $90 surrenders the June recovery base and the 2026-07-01 Bollinger breakout; secondarily, a Q2 print (est. ~2026-08-11) showing SeaMoney credit costs/NPLs rising or Shopee GMV decelerating below the ~25% FY guide confirms a fundamental break. --- ### SEPN — Septerna, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEPN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Re-accelerated on the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat (revenue $26.746M vs $17.875M est; EPS $(0.29) vs $(0.43)) plus SEP-479 Phase 1 PK color: new all-time high $48.19, close $44.50 on 2026-08-14, and five broker target raises in four sessions ($49–$62). The re-rating is estimate-driven — the first real clinical binary, SEP-479 SAD/MAD, is guided early 2027, so nothing dated backstops the move inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 puts the whole post-print advance back inside the July $33.10–$38.04 range and voids the re-acceleration; secondarily, SEP-479 SAD/MAD guidance slipping past early 2027 at the Q3 print, or the $49–$62 target cluster beginning to be cut. --- ### SHIP — Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHIP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Managed care & health services, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Capesize spot printed $40,170/day on 2026-08-20, roughly 30% above the ~$30,998/day the company guided for Q3 on 2026-07-30 — yet the stock closed $17.50 on 2026-08-21, still 3.7% under its $18.17 high. No company print until ~mid-November, so the Baltic tape, the ~2026-09-07 China trade data and the 2026-09-25 record date are the only markers. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.50 (loses the mid-August shelf and puts the name under its pre-2026-07-30 print level while Capesize spot is still near $40,000/day); secondary: Baltic Capesize daily earnings holding under ~$25,000/day versus the ~$30,998 Q3 guide, or a Q3 dividend declared below $0.35/share. --- ### SIBN — SI-BONE, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIBN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: The 2026-08-03 binary resolved bullish: Q2 revenue $56.01M (+15.2% YoY vs +11.2% in Q1), EPS −$0.09 vs −$0.15 est, FY26 floor raised to $231M, three target hikes on 2026-08-04. Price cleared the $17.05 shelf that capped June–July. Spinopelvic-expansion narrative accelerating, but RSI 72 at the 2026-08-14 close of $18.93 and no dated catalyst until the Q3 print (~November). Kill line: A weekly close below $17 surrenders the $17.05 shelf reclaimed after the 2026-08-03 Q2 print and puts price back in the $14.13–$17.05 June–July range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-02) worse than the guided 1–2% sequential decline, or any trim to the $231–233M FY2026 guide. --- ### SKWD — Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SKWD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 beat on 2026-08-04 (op EPS $1.30 vs $1.17 est, combined 89.5%, 19% operating ROE) cleared the binary, but four target raises through 2026-08-11 met a lower price — $59.80 on 2026-08-14, 8.9% under the $65.63 high, RSI 45.3. maturing: fundamentals still compounding at ~12x the reaffirmed $4.80–$5.00 guide, price no longer extending on good news. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 breaks the mid-July ~$57 pivot and the June low-$50s breakout shelf; secondary condition is the Q3 print (~2026-11-03, est.) arriving with the $4.80–$5.00 guide merely met and no raise, or a combined ratio drifting toward the mid-90s. --- ### SMRT — SmartRent, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMRT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: RSI(14) cooled 87.8→74.7 while price only slipped $1.49→$1.43, so the momentum extreme unwound sideways. Still no dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $1.32 puts price under every August 2026 insider purchase print ($1.34–$1.44) and loses the July base; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) showing adjusted EBITDA back below zero, gross margin under 40.7%, or TTM units booked decelerating from 112,560 breaks the inflection case regardless of price. --- ### SNAP — Snap Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNAP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-03) inverted the broken-pivot frame: revenue +19% YoY to $1.6B, adj EBITDA $250M (+$208M YoY), Other Revenue +85%; ten desks lifted targets 2026-08-04 and the uniform $5 wall became $5.25–$8. The buy is a restructuring-into-margin leg, but the 2026-08-14 close of $5.41 is −2.2% over three months, so coverage has accelerated and structure has not. Kill line: A weekly close below $5 round-trips the 2026-08-03 Q2 repricing and drops back under the entire $5.25–$8 target cluster; secondarily, Q3 revenue printing beneath the $1.70B low end of the guide, or the late-October JCCP bellwether arriving with an adverse Snap outcome. --- ### SNDK — Sandisk Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI chips & memory Thesis: Cycle stock re-rating into a contracted-revenue story: Q4 (2026-08-05) revenue $8.965B, +372% YoY, GM 84.6%, and the 2026-08-13 Investor Day's ~$94B of guaranteed-volume customer agreements re-accelerated a theme that read saturated in July. Narrative accelerating; entry location is poor after a two-session vertical with retail clustering and no company binary inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $1400 gives back the 2026-08-13/14 Investor Day repricing and returns the name to its pre-event range; reinforced if the FY2026 10-K shows the ~$94B NBM minimums are volume-only with pricing renegotiable, or if FY2028 bit coverage is guided below two-thirds. --- ### SNDR — Schneider National, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: The 2026-07-30 print resolved the binary in the bulls' favour — adj EPS $0.29 vs $0.23 consensus, FY26 guide raised to $0.90–$1.10 from $0.70–$1.00 — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $36.10 sits 6.6% under the 2026-06-08 high, with SONAR rejections off their 17.64% June peak. Fundamentals confirmed, flow moderating, no company catalyst until the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 loses the May breakout shelf that framed the 2026-07-02 pullback; secondary breaks: SONAR tender rejections back under ~10% with dry-van spot fading toward flat YoY, or a Q3 print (~2026-10-29 est.) that trims the $0.90–$1.10 FY26 adj-EPS range. --- ### SNDX — Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Menin-inhibitor commercial ramp accelerating: Revuforj + Niktimvo franchise cleared $100M/quarter with revenue +224% YoY, and the leg being bought is frontline AML label expansion (~10x TAM). Stock coils below 52-week-high resistance $25.59 with PTs ~$38–40 far above ~$24.57; 2026-07-14 R&D Day is the near-term event, frontline 2H26 data the real inflection. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 breaks the June–July base and the multi-month uptrend structure; a confirming leg would be frontline BEAT AML/EVOLVE-2 data landing below the ~90% CRc bar set at EHA 2026, or the Oncology & immunology theme rolling to saturated. --- ### SPSC — SPS Commerce, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPSC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-04 Themes: AI enterprise software, Freight & logistics Thesis: De-rating-repair leg: Q2 (2026-07-30) beat on adjusted EPS $1.27 vs $1.09 with EBITDA +19% on 6% revenue growth, while the FY26 revenue band was cut on the 2026-06-30 3P divestiture. Price reclaimed the ~$70 200-day, but the fresh Morgan Stanley agent-to-agent disintermediation thesis (2026-07-21, UW, $57→$59) caps the multiple and no catalyst lands inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 (loses the reclaimed 200-day and the June–July shelf), or Q3 revenue printing at/below the $196.3M guidance low end at the ~2026-10-22 (est.) print. --- ### SPXC — SPX Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPXC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Q2 beat-and-raise on 2026-07-30 was the strongest print of the cycle — HVAC backlog $919M (+59% organic), 2026 data-center revenue set at $430M, capacity target lifted to $1.1B from $750M — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $217.32 sits 11.8% under the 52-week high with RSI 49. Fundamentals accelerating, price paying less for each upgrade; no company catalyst until late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $199 unwinds the entire 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise reaction (that session's $199.30 regular-session close was the pre-guidance mark); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing HVAC backlog under $919M or trimming the $430M 2026 data-center revenue figure. --- ### TBLA — Taboola.com Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: Legacy open-web ad network repricing as a toll booth on AI answer surfaces: the 2026-06-16 DeeperDive ad-network launch (35% take rate, open to third-party LLMs/agents) plus the 2026-07-01 Wikitree win drove a breakout to 52-week highs near $5.41, with estimates +20.6% in three months. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is where the story gets a number or stalls. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.80 gives back the June DeeperDive breakout and puts price back inside the May–June base; secondary, the 2026-08-05 Q2 print passing without a disclosed DeeperDive third-party customer count or revenue contribution, which would leave a ~6% grower re-rated on an unquantified line. --- ### TEAM — Atlassian Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEAM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: The "agentic AI kills seat-based software" de-rating just reversed: Q4 FY26 (2026-08-06) put cloud +31% and $6,606M subscription ARR behind the Rovo/MCP agent story, and the stock gapped 30%+ on 2026-08-07 to close $149.07. The counterweight sits in the same release — FY27 revenue growth guided ~13% with Data Center -17% — and no company catalyst lands before the ~2026-10-29 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 returns more than half the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and voids the post-print re-rating; secondarily, a Q1 FY27 print (est. 2026-10-29) with cloud growth under the guided ~28.5% would confirm the break fundamentally. --- ### TNET — Trinet Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: The 2026-07-30 binary resolved bullish: Q2 ICR 86% vs 90%, adj EPS $1.55 vs $0.93 est, FY adj-EPS guide raised to $4.50-5.10. Shares made a 52wk high at $71.67 and sit 4.1% under it. The leg now being bought is durability, not recovery — and a $21M non-recurring prior-year credit plus an 88.5-89.5% FY ICR guide above both H1 prints argue H2 gives some back. Kill line: A weekly close below $61 returns price into the pre-print $54-61 band and erases the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise gap; secondarily, a Q3 ICR at or above the 89.5% top of the raised FY band, or a FY revenue guide cut beneath $4.75B, breaks the margin-durability leg regardless of price. --- ### TOI — The Oncology Institute, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TOI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) delivered the first positive adjusted EBITDA (+$0.2M) and a FY26 guide raise to $650–670M revenue with the EBITDA floor lifted to $2M, but the July refi spike already round-tripped and RSI was 32 into the print. Shares also left the TOI symbol — trading as STLN since 2026-08-04. Fundamentals confirmed; the base has not. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 (surrenders the 50-day and erases the entire price response to the 2026-07-09 OrbiMed refinancing). Secondarily, a Q3 guide pushing the FY26 adjusted-EBITDA floor back to or below zero, or the Q4 Nevada/Oregon delegated go-lives slipping without a new date. --- ### TRVI — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Second breakout leg confirmed: TRVI cleared the June $18.17 all-time high and printed $20.22 on a +9.85% July 17 session (8.3M shares, $19.07 close), lifting the tape ~+45% in six weeks on Phase 3 launch mechanics and institutional marketing rather than data. Consensus PT $24.90 vs 10 Strong Buys still sits above spot; the Aug 6 Q2 print is the only dated event before a 14-month data desert. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 surrenders the June breakout shelf over the prior $16.12 52-week high and returns the name to its $13–16 post-offering cage. Secondary: an 8-K disclosing a Phase 3 clinical hold, protocol amendment or SAE cluster, or a fresh equity raise into strength despite guided runway into 2030. --- ### TTMI — TTM Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials, AI chips & memory Thesis: The 2026-08-05 binary resolved bullishly — Q2 revenue $1.004B beat both the $930–970M guide and $962M consensus, book-to-bill rose to 1.49, Q3 guided $1.100–1.140B vs $1.073B consensus. Yet the 2026-08-14 close of $140.0 is 36.8% below the 52-week high and still under the $155.98 breakdown close. Orders re-accelerated; the price structure is only partway repaired. Kill line: secondarily, a Q3 print with total book-to-bill under 1.0 or revenue below the $1.100B guide low. --- ### TVTX — Travere Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TVTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Q2 beat on 2026-08-04 ($169.6M revenue vs $159.6M consensus; FILSPARI US sales +96% YoY to $141.1M) re-opened sell-side headroom — six target raises 08-05→08-10 into a $70–85 band while the 2026-08-14 close of $62.14 sits 1.0% under the 52wk high. The ramp narrative is accelerating, but the next dated resolver is the early-November Q3 print, with only the Sept 8–10 conference block in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 gives back the 2026-08-05 post-print gap and puts price under the July range (07-07 close $57.85, 07-17 close $56.71). Secondary: a Q3 print with new patient start forms below the 2,012 booked in Q2, or the Sept 8–10 conference block passing with no reclaim of the $62.76 high. --- ### TWLO — Twilio Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Legacy CPaaS repricing as voice/agentic-AI engagement infrastructure; sell-side re-clustered higher into the print — Cowen $245, Mizuho $240, Citizens $250 (2026-07-17/20) — but the 2026-07-30 Q2 report is now the binary deciding whether the re-rating re-accelerates or saturates. Kill line: A weekly close below $197 fills the 2026-06-01 gap and negates the re-rating; secondarily, a 2026-07-30 Q2 print with reported revenue growth below 14% or organic growth below 9.5%, or a soft Q3 guide, breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### TWST — Twist Bioscience Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Synthetic-DNA-as-AI-input narrative went vertical: the failed $70 breakout reclaimed and ran to a $105.47 high, +200%+ YTD with 85% of it since the 2026-05-21 analyst day. Targets now $102-$120 but price sits above the $85.50 consensus and Evercore stepped aside on valuation. The 2026-08-03 Q3 print is the binary that decides whether AI orders show up in the total revenue line. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 — the old all-time-high ceiling that became support on the late-June breakout — voids the AI-order re-rating leg. Secondary: the 2026-08-03 Q3 FY26 print showing total revenue growth still stuck near +19% with no inflection from AI accounts. --- ### U — Unity Software Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/U/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Legacy pivot has now printed: Q2 (2026-08-06) Grow revenue $329.0M +63% YoY, Vector past $1B ARR two quarters early, GAAP breakeven pulled into Q3 2026, four Hold-to-Buy upgrades on 2026-08-07. But the 2026-08-14 close of $46.25 sits inside the new $45–55 target cluster with RSI(14) 91.5 and no dated catalyst until roughly November. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 unwinds the entire 2026-08-06 post-print re-rating and returns price to the range that capped it through June–July. Secondary: a downgrade or target cut out of the $45–55 cluster, or Q3 Strategic Grow landing under the $380M guide floor at the ~2026-11-05 print. --- ### UFPT — UFP Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UFPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Freight & logistics Thesis: MedTech outsourcing compounder re-rated on the 2026-08-03 Q2 beat — organic growth 12.4% vs 6.8% for the first half, adj EPS $2.92 vs $2.50 consensus — carrying price to within 3.9% of the $334.84 52-week high. Narrative accelerating, entry extended: RSI 76.7, ~$5.0M of Executive Chairman selling on 2026-08-06/07, and no scheduled company event until the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $300 (gives up the post-Q2 shelf and the $315.06–$320.82 zone where the Executive Chairman sold on 2026-08-06/07); secondarily, a Q3 2026 print showing organic growth back under the 6.8% first-half rate. --- ### UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UGP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Q2 (6-K 2026-08-12, call 2026-08-13) delivered the margin re-rate — Ipiranga EBITDA R$2.782B at R$451/m³, record cash flow, leverage 0.9x, lowest since 2008 — then management guided Q3 margins below that level. Price faded to 6.1% under the 52-wk high with RSI 46.2. What remains is the undated Ipiranga stake sale (BTG advising; Couche-Tard added 2026-07-05). Kill line: A weekly close below $5.80 retraces more than half the advance off the 2026-07-02 low and loses the July breakout shelf; secondarily, Q3 Ipiranga recurring EBITDA materially under R$2.782B at a margin far below R$451/m³, or a public confirmation that the Ipiranga sale process ended. --- ### UHAL — U-Haul Holding Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UHAL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Managed care & health services, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: Storage-plus-capital-return re-rating held through a weak print: Q1 FY2027 (2026-08-05) missed on EPS ($0.58 vs $0.69 est.) yet the stock made a new 52-week high at $75.27, helped by disposal losses reversing $24.0M to a $1.9M gain. Now maturing — growth is rate-driven, occupancy -4.5 pts to 88.3%, and no company catalyst until the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 gives back the July breakout shelf (prior $68.25 ceiling) and returns price to the pre-breakout range; secondary, a Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with revenue per occupied square foot decelerating under +5% while occupancy stays below 90%. --- ### ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ULCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Travel & leisure, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Fuel-relief leg replaced by an earnings-delivery leg: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print put adjusted EPS at $(0.10) against a $(0.60)–$(0.45) May guide on record $1,279M revenue, and guided 2H to breakeven-or-better. The catch is that guide assumes $3.70/gal Q3 fuel with Brent at 88.38 (2026-08-14), and consensus PT $6.67 sits on the $6.69 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 puts price back under the July consolidation and prices out the guided 2H turn; secondary: Q3 realized fuel above the guided $3.70/gal, or a walk-down of the +20% Q3 RASM guide before the ~late-October print. --- ### URGN — UroGen Pharma Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/URGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The 2026-08-05 binary resolved upward: ZUSDURI Q2 net revenue $50.4M (+73% QoQ off the $29.2M Q1 base), total revenue $72.456M vs $63.526M consensus, and a ~22% one-day gap to a $49.00 52-week high. The ramp now runs into an empty calendar — nothing dated until the UGN-103 NDA (Q3 2026) and the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and forfeits the July shelf near $40.97; a secondary break if the UGN-103 NDA submission slips past the Q3 2026 target (2026-09-30) or Q3'26 ZUSDURI revenue fails to exceed $50.4M. --- ### UROY — Uranium Royalty Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UROY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Nuclear & uranium, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Corporate re-rating from the 2026-07-27 Sweetwater close is now fully priced-in news; RSI(14) 79.9 on 2026-08-21 with no company headline since 2026-08-07, and no combined-company financials exist before the ~2026-09-14 first quarterly report. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.90 gives back the post-relisting consolidation built since the 2026-07-28 NASDAQ start, including the $4.09 close of 2026-08-12; secondary confirmation would be U3O8 spot indicators printing under $80/lb after the $88.29/lb reading of 2026-08-20, or the first combined-company report passing without a disclosed pro forma diluted share count. --- ### VAC — Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VAC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) resolved the turnaround binary upward: contract sales $545M +22%, adj EPS $2.31 vs $1.97 est, FY adj EBITDA guide lifted to $805–830M from $755–780M. Price cleared the July $105.97 high to a $120.99 close (2026-08-14) and now trades above the ~$114 consensus target with no company catalyst until the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $106 gives back the post-Q2 breakout through the early-July $105.97 high; secondarily, any trim to the newly raised $805–830M FY adjusted EBITDA guide, or a Q3 print with contract-sales growth under the 18–20% full-year guide. --- ### VCYT — Veracyte, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCYT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-21 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Sell-side is now chasing a move it missed: VCYT broke to a 52-wk high $60.91 (closed $59.13 on 2026-07-17, +124% YoY) as Piper initiated Overweight $66 (07-15) and Canaccord lifted a Hold PT $42→$60. Fundamentals still accelerating (Q1 rev +21%, Decipher +30%, TrueMRD launched 06-01), but consensus PT $56.55 sits below spot and the Q2 print lands 2026-07-30 — a dated binary between here and any continuation. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 surrenders the June $49–52 shelf and marks the July breakout as failed. Secondary: Q2 results on 2026-07-30 showing testing revenue growth below +18% YoY (vs +21% in Q1) or Decipher below +22% (vs +30%), or FY26 guidance merely reaffirmed at $582–592M rather than raised again. --- ### VET — Vermilion Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: European gas did the work: TTF above €65/MWh on 2026-08-20 (+~130% YTD) with EU storage at a record-low 57.1% for the date on 2026-08-01, and the shares moved from the 2026-08-07 close of $10.86 to $12.73, now 11.1% under the $14.32 high. The open question is how much of a €65 strip reaches the P&L with 58% of European gas hedged; nothing company-dated before the 2026-09-15 dividend record date. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.20 unwinds the August gas-driven re-rate and returns price inside the pre-2026-08-10 range; secondary condition, month-ahead TTF settling back under €50/MWh from the €65+ printed 2026-08-20. --- ### VG — Venture Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary that extends or breaks the leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 forfeits the mid-July breakout shelf that launched the run to $15; the Oil, energy & geopolitical theme flipping to saturated (TTF rolling over, European storage full) or an Aug 11 print with a widening Calcasieu arbitration charge is the confirming secondary break. --- ### VLO — Valero Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-22 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC have caught up, the name is extended, and the Q2 print lands now — the setup clears on a pullback, not a chase at peak coverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $280 (loses the July geopolitical-breakout shelf and the rising 20-week EMA), or the 3-2-1 crack spread mean-reverting back under ~$45 from its record ~$70 as offline refining capacity returns online. --- ### VOYG — Voyager Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VOYG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Defense-space order flow re-rating: Q2 (2026-08-03) delivered record $113.0M bookings, 2.1x book-to-bill, $335.5M backlog and an FY26 guide raise to $275–305M, followed by Raytheon SM-3 and Space Force awards. Starlab/NASA optionality sits on top but resolves early 2027. Price at $38.40 (2026-08-21) is still 25.8% below the $51.77 high with RSI 70.5 — momentum recovering inside a drawdown. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 hands back the August post-print advance; secondary condition — the NASA commercial-LEO final solicitation slipping past the fall bid window, or Q3 revenue roughly flat with Q2's $52.7M against the $275–305M FY guide. --- ### VSTM — Verastem, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSTM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Post-Q2 the narrative is confirmed and the tape has flattened: $6.74 on 2026-08-07 to $6.89 on 2026-08-21 while three banks cut targets with ratings held. The 2026-08-28 Oberland closing funds $50M inside 30 days; the October VS-7375 response-rate update is the binary and still sits outside the window. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.50 unwinds the entire post-Q2 advance and returns price to the 2026-07-12 shelf, where the close was $5.53; the 2026-08-28 Oberland closing failing to fund $50M, or October passing with no VS-7375 response-rate disclosure, would compound the break. --- ### WEX — WEX Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-13 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-24 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Cyclical industrials, EV & autonomous mobility Thesis: Hated fuel-card/fintech inflecting: the 2026-07-22 Q2 beat (Adj EPS $5.35 vs $5.05) and FY26 guide raise to $19.68-$20.08 discredit the EV-kills-fuel-cards and rate-cut-kills-float bear case; PTs jumped to $200-210 (Mizuho/KBW, 7/24). Earnings binary just cleared — ~3 months of clean tape into a ~10x multiple with buyback support. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 fills the 2026-07-22 earnings gap and negates the beat-and-raise re-rating; secondary: the payments/fintech-consumer-credit theme flipping to saturated, or a dovish FOMC path compressing custodial-float NII. --- ### WIX — Wix.com Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WIX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-20 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Base44 margin inversion is the live leg and the market is now paying up for it: after the 2026-08-04 beat ($563.1M, +15%; adj EPS $1.39 vs $1.16) and the ~60% 2H gross-margin guide, price ran from the 2026-08-07 close of $60.20 to $66.14 on 2026-08-11, far above the $51.56 50-day. No company proof point until the ~November print, and a securities class action over Base44 cost disclosure has a 2026-09-22 lead-plaintiff deadline in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 fills the 2026-08-04 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print base, which now overlaps the rising 50-day average at $51.56; secondary, Q3 bookings growth printing under Q2's +12% or an FY26 cut from low-teens bookings growth. --- ### WNC — Wabash National Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WNC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: The tariff re-rating now has a fundamental leg under it: Q2 (2026-07-29) beat on revenue at $417.2M and backlog rose 14% q/q to $956M, the first Q2 order-book build. The binary is regulatory — Commerce's final China AD/CVD determination is due no later than 2026-08-24, with duties already collected at preliminary rates since June, so the event can disappoint more easily than it can surprise. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.80 fills the 2026-06-18 upgrade gap and voids the tariff re-rating. Secondary: the 2026-08-24 Commerce final landing materially below the 82.3–128.7% CVD / 130.8% AD preliminaries, a negative ITC injury vote, or Q3 backlog printing under $956M. --- ### WTTR — Select Water Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WTTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-04) underwrote the produced-water re-rate — record $101.6M Water Infrastructure revenue, $92.7M Adjusted EBITDA, EPS $0.17 vs $0.13 — and shares made a new 52-week high $22.18 before easing to $20.86. Consensus PT ~$22.29 is now level with the tape, Q3 EBITDA is guided flat at $90–94M, and no company catalyst exists until the ~November print. Maturing, not accelerating. Kill line: Secondary: the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing Adjusted EBITDA at or under the $90M low end with Water Infrastructure margin at the 56% floor. --- ### XNCR — Xencor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XNCR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Two overhangs closed in three weeks: the $105M Alexion settlement (2026-07-29) ended the Ultomiris dispute and pushed runway through 2028, and Q2 revenue of $51.2M vs $18.9M consensus (2026-08-05) drew three price-target raises on 08-06. Price closed 2026-08-14 at $23.34, its 52-week high, RSI 69.2. The XmAb819 ESMO oral (Oct 23–27) remains the binary and nothing is dated before it. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 retraces the entire post-settlement, post-Q2 advance back into the pre-2026-07-17 range; separately, an XmAb819 ESMO oral on 2026-10-23 to 10-27 that does not support the stated 2027 pivotal start breaks the pipeline leg independently of the chart. --- ### YETI — YETI Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YETI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-22 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Thesis: Tariff-margin-recovery turnaround now getting sell-side confirmation: Goldman upgraded to Buy/$63 on 2026-07-20 (vs Canaccord's $45 Hold a month earlier), pushing YETI through the $51.89 multi-year high. The leg still hinges on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print actually showing the guided H2 gross-margin expansion. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 (loses the $48–51 coil that launched the breakout and the rising 20-EMA); or a 2026-08-06 Q2 print with no H2 gross-margin expansion and an FY adjusted-EPS guide cut below $2.83. --- ### ZBIO — Zenas BioPharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBIO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: First-in-disease B-cell modulator: obexelimab BLA (IgG4-RD, 56% flare cut, HR 0.44) hit the FDA 2026-05-28, and the ~60-day filing determination — acceptance plus a possible Priority Review grant — is due within days, a fresh near-term driver into an accelerating immunology narrative. Deeper binaries (SunStone SLE) sit in Q4 2026. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 forfeits the July catalyst-watch advance and the post-NEJM rebound base toward the $21 April swing low; an FDA refuse-to-file on the obexelimab BLA, a standard-review assignment that stretches the timeline, or a Q4 2026 SunStone SLE topline miss would confirm the pipeline rerate has stalled. --- ### ZETA — Zeta Global Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZETA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Palantir Foundry re-platforming now has a management clock — phase one guided complete within 30–40 days of the 2026-07-06 Citi event, landing on the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Price reclaimed the $21 shelf that capped the June recovery (+14% since late June), but 30.57M shares stay short and the Culper overhang is unresolved. Confirmed structure, unconfirmed numbers. Kill line: A daily close below $19 forfeits the entire July advance and returns price to the June range; secondary: an FY2026 revenue guide cut below the ~$1,785M midpoint at the ~2026-08-04 print, or Palantir Foundry phase-one integration slipping past mid-August without a restated date. --- ### ZURA — Zura Bio Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZURA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Q2 print (2026-08-11) added a third tibulizumab indication — polymyalgia rheumatica, NEXUS-PMR Phase 2 by YE2026 — and Wedbush ($22) plus Guggenheim ($20) raised targets on 2026-08-12; the $5.57 close on 2026-08-14 has not paid for it. The binary is TibuSHIELD HS topline in Q4 2026, with nothing dated inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 loses the July-August low-$5s floor and signals the pre-data bid draining out; secondary confirmation would be the NEXUS-PMR Phase 2 initiation slipping past 2026-12-31 without explanation. --- ### AA — Alcoa Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Policy leg (Section 232 onshoring, 2026-07-20) still bid, but the driver has rolled: LME aluminum $3,360/t on 08-11 to $3,248.75/t on 08-21 while the shares rose from $49.98 to $51.85. Nothing company-dated resolves before the Q3 print (~2026-10-21 on prior-year timing), and the close sits at the low edge of the $52–$55 post-print target cluster. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 ends the August reclaim and returns price to the July range; secondary conditions: LME 3-month aluminum under $3,200/t after the $3,248.75/t print of 2026-08-21, or the ~2026-10-21 Q3 print passing with the full-year alumina production guide still cut. --- ### AAON — AAON, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-10 (Q2 sales $627.0M, +101.2%; FY guide up to $2.235–2.307B) landed with gross margin 24.3% vs 26.6% and the FY margin guide cut to 25–26%. Targets were cut the next day and the entire 2026-05-07 re-rating gap has round-tripped to $87.80 — broken structure, no company catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 puts price under the ~$90 pre-gap area with no base built and confirms the de-rating extends; secondary break is the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print showing BASX backlog down sequentially a second time or FY gross margin guided under 25%. --- ### AAPL — Apple Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-03 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: July's rotation-crown has slipped — Polymarket now gives Apple 20% odds of ending 2026 as the largest company (7/24) and semis are breaking out again (NVDA 7/23). The live narrative is the 'anti-CapEx AI trade' as Alphabet turns FCF-negative (7/24), but fiscal Q3 on 2026-07-30 is a binary now ~3 sessions out — not a fresh-entry window. Kill line: A weekly close below $317 gives back the reclaimed WWDC high and turns the July mega-cap leg into a failed breakout; secondary: a rotation back into AI semiconductors that removes the blue-chip bid, or a fiscal Q3 miss on iPhone units or gross margin near 2026-07-30. --- ### ABCL — AbCellera Biologics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Binary resolved positive: ABCL635 Phase 2 hit both primaries on 2026-08-10 (placebo-adjusted −5.3 hot flashes/day, p<0.001), and the stock re-rated to a 52-week-high $11.38 close on 2026-08-14 at RSI 97.4. The company priced $200M of equity at $9.75 two days after the print; with no dated catalyst inside 30 days, the near-term question is absorption of that supply. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.75 — the 2026-08-12 follow-on pricing level — breaks the post-data re-rating shelf and reopens the $8.44 July high; secondary, ABCL575 Phase 1 top-line data guided for Q4 2026 slipping out of the year, or a Phase 3 plan announced alongside a second equity raise. --- ### ABEO — Abeona Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABEO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The 2026-08-13 Q2 print missed both lines — revenue $11.38M vs ~$12.24M, EPS -$0.35 vs -$0.23 — and price has given back 18.4% from the $7.46 high. But treated patients rose to five from three and the QTC network hit its seven-center 2026 target; the shortfall was manufacturing yield and lot release. The leg now on offer is a process fix, and nothing dated resolves it before the Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.90 retraces the entire July–August reimbursement leg and breaks the shelf the stock consolidated on before the 2026-08-04 NTAP grant; secondarily, a Q3 report that again shows treated patients exceeding revenue-recognized patients on yield or lot-release failures. --- ### ABNB — Airbnb, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABNB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-acceleration re-rating now confirmed on price: the 2026-08-21 close of $187.30 is a new 52-week closing high, clearing the $185.13 shelf. But the last company disclosure was 2026-08-11 (Tripadvisor), the target-revision wave ended the same week, and nothing company-scheduled lands before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print — RSI(14) 78.6 into a ten-week vacuum. Kill line: A weekly close below $175 surrenders the post-Q2 shelf set by the 2026-08-07 range and turns the 2026-08-21 new 52-week closing high into a failed high. Secondary: no close above $185.13 through September, on continued TV/newsletter-driven coverage, dates the theme saturated. --- ### ABVX — Abivax SA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABVX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-binary single-asset UC biotech that has now lost the $125.00 placement shelf — 2026-08-14 close $118.96 — despite a positive 2026-07-30 pre-NDA FDA interaction. Sell-side sits ~$161.55 average against the tape, the CEO has framed a solo US launch over a sale, and nothing is scheduled inside 30 days. The narrative is saturated. Kill line: A weekly close below $96 retraces the entire 2026-06-29 pivotal-data premium and breaks the thesis; secondary confirmation would be end-2026 NDA guidance softened at H1 results (~2026-09-21, est.) or UEG Week (~Oct 2026) passing with weaker comparative remission separation. --- ### ABX — Abacus Global Management, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: Q2 beat everything management guides to — revenue $73.020M vs $66.088M consensus, adj EPS $0.28 vs $0.24, FY $1.00–1.05 affirmed (2026-08-06) — and bought no price: $9.27 close on 2026-08-14, 22.8% off the high and through the $10 shelf. The tokenization re-rating leg that made the July high is broken; the $100M buyback starting 2026-08-17 is the next test of whether a bid exists. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 confirms post-print distribution and gives up the flat three-month shelf; secondarily, the $100M repurchase running from 2026-08-17 through the quarter with no weekly close back above $10.50, or the FY2026 adjusted-EPS guide of $1.00–1.05 being cut at the Q3 print. --- ### ACB — Aurora Cannabis Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment, Cannabis reclassification Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: Frame flipped 2026-08-11: Curaleaf's unsolicited proposal — 0.3463 CURLF shares + US$0.75 cash, implied US$4.00, capped at US$5.00 — turned a broken Canadian LP into a live take-over situation. No formal bid has been commenced, the board formed a special committee, and the 2026-08-14 close of $3.68 already carries most of the announced premium at RSI 79.7. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.05 gives back the bulk of the 2026-08-11 bid gap and reads as the market pricing a failed process back toward the US$2.75 pre-announcement 30-day VWAP; reinforced if Curaleaf's stated intention lapses with no formal bid circular mailed, or Aurora's directors' circular rejects with no raised offer. --- ### ACDC — ProFrac Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-20 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Hormuz beta re-coupled in August: WTI settled $82.40 and Brent $88.52 on 2026-08-14 with the strait still shut, dragging ACDC to $5.37 at RSI 74.4. But the 2026-08-06 Q2 print missed (-$0.44 vs -$0.30), liquidity is ~$72M against $1,083.6M net debt, and the CEO resigned effective 2026-08-07. Crude leg live, company leg worse. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 erases the entire August crude re-coupling and returns price to its 2026-07-09 level; reinforced if a US-Iran/Oman Hormuz agreement lands and Brent slips back under $80 while the $6.40 June shelf stays unreclaimed. --- ### ACHC — Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Post-scandal turnaround re-rate resolved its binary and faded. Q2 (2026-07-28) beat its own guide and lifted the FY26 floor, but printed adj. EBITDA $149.2M vs $201.8M YoY on a $28.6M settlement reserve build. Price gave back two-thirds of the July leg — $35.61 high to the 2026-08-14 close of $30.83. The $30.20 breakout shelf retest is unresolved. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 surrenders the $30.20 prior 52-week high and turns the July re-rate into a failed breakout; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. late October) with no comparable Florida supplemental payment line and a further PLGL reserve adjustment. --- ### ACHR — Archer Aviation Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Physical AI & robotics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The 2026-08-10 Boeing-subsidiary re-rating has fully retraced: the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $6.30 sits 0.6% above the $6.26 pre-announcement reference, so the market is valuing >$200M of acquired Insitu revenue at roughly nothing. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.26 — the pre-announcement level cited 2026-08-10 — round-trips the entire Boeing re-rating and flips the deal leg to a failed narrative; secondary: an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request or a closing date pushed past 2026. --- ### ACMR — ACM Research, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-07 (revenue $292.9M +36% YoY, EPS $0.61 vs $0.34, FY26 floor lifted to $1.125B, H1 orders +105% YoY) was sold: the stock round-tripped to $80.42 on 2026-08-14, -36.6% from a $126.89 52-week high. Order curve accelerating, price structure broken, no base yet and no company catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 breaks the 2026-06-05 base (low close $76.29) and the last higher low; secondary break: the FY2026 floor guided back under $1.125B at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### ACN — Accenture PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Post-crash re-rating leg has extended — $176.89 on 2026-08-14 vs the $118.15 June low — helped by a time-boxed $7.5B buyback and an $821M Pentagon War Data Platform award on 07-28. But RSI(14) is 73.1, the close sits within ~1% of the 27-analyst average target of $178.89, and the buyback's dated demand stops 2026-08-31 with no print until ~09-24. Kill line: A daily close below $166 surrenders the 2026-07-30/31 pullback shelf the August extension was built on; secondarily, 2026-08-31 passing with the $7.5B program complete and no new board authorization disclosed while price fails at the $173.17 high of 07-29. --- ### ADI — Analog Devices, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: The $405 post-Q2 shelf has broken — the 2026-08-14 close of $389.39 sits 12.6% under the $445.48 52-week high while every published target ($405–$550) is now above spot. Analog recovery plus the Empower AI-power option is a fully told story whose only dated resolution is the 2026-08-19 Q3 print against a ~$3.9B / ~39% operating-margin guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $370 puts price further beneath the surrendered $405 post-Q2 shelf and confirms the cyclical repricing is round-tripping; a Q4 FY2026 revenue guide at the 2026-08-19 print below the ~$3.9B Q3 level, or an operating-margin guide under 39%, is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### ADSK — Autodesk, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADSK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Legacy CAD franchise trying to re-rate on an asset-operations pivot: the $3.6B MaintainX deal closed 2026-08-03, yet the 2026-08-14 close of $251.66 is still 23.0% under the $326.79 high. Two desks picked up coverage in three weeks — Goldman Neutral/$260 (2026-08-11), Guggenheim Buy/$245 (2026-07-23) — both parked at spot. The 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print is the first guide that carries the deal. Kill line: A weekly close below $238 unwinds the July–August recovery leg that carried price to the 2026-08-14 close of $251.66; secondary condition: the 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print cutting FY27 revenue guidance beneath the $8.155B low end or non-GAAP EPS beneath the $12.40 low end set on 2026-05-28. --- ### ADTN — ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Networking & optical, Cyclical industrials Thesis: ADVA margin-recovery turnaround is finished as a narrative: the 2026-08-03 final Q2 confirmed the July pre-announcement (rev $281.1M vs $290.2M consensus, non-GAAP EPS $0.04 vs $0.10, op margin 3.8% vs 6.9% in Q1), the $9 shelf gave way, and the 2026-07-17 shelf registration hangs over an $8-handle tape with no base formed. Kill line: A weekly close below $7 completes the round-trip of the ADVA re-rate and leaves no prior reference level beneath the price; secondary: a discounted takedown off the 2026-07-17 shelf, or Q3 revenue under the $275M guide low at the ~2026-11-03 print. --- ### AEIS — Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Datacenter-power picks-and-shovels re-rating is now fully mainstream — Morgan Stanley initiated Overweight $421 (07-22) atop Wells $465 and Susquehanna $535 — yet the stock fell 12.65% on 07-02 and is sitting on its 200-day while analyst targets keep climbing. Sell-side saturation against a broken tape; the confirmed 2026-08-03 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $286 loses the 200-day MA and confirms the uptrend is broken, turning the re-rating into a value trap; a Q2 miss or Data Center segment guide-down at the 2026-08-03 print is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### AEM — Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Gold-equity operating leverage re-accelerating: spot gold ran from clearing $4,200 on 2026-08-05 to $4,577.49 on 2026-08-21, and Agnico's TTM net income is already +98.5% at $5.87B. The catch is timing — RSI(14) 91.9 and the 2026-08-21 close of $216.06 sits above the 22-analyst consensus target of $214.98, with no earnings reset inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $199 breaks the August gold-leg advance and returns the equity to the $188 (Barclays) / $179 (J.P. Morgan) target zone; a weekly close in spot gold back under $4,200 — the level cleared 2026-08-05 — alongside it would confirm the metal, not the miner, turned. --- ### AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AESI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Frac-sand legacy pivoting to behind-the-meter gas power for AI data centers, but the story is DORMANT and the structure broken: shares fell from $16.73 (6/29) to an $11.96 close (7/24, -8.5%), losing the ~$15 base and $13 shelf on softening sand demand, no new PPA since 4/1, and a tape that keeps cutting (Barclays UW $14, Citi $21). No velocity until a fresh order or reclaim; the 2026-08-03 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 forfeits the 7/24 low ($11.94) and confirms the failed power-pivot breakout is extending toward the high-single-digit / $7.64 52-week-low zone; secondary — the 2026-08-03 Q2 print guiding adj-EBITDA below ~$48M, or still no new power PPA/genset conversion by that print. --- ### AFRM — Affirm Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AFRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: The +80%-off-March recovery re-rate has matured and rolled over: Morgan Stanley pulled its Overweight ('valuation call') on 2026-06-25, and price faded ~30% from the $100 high back onto the reclaimed 200-day near $70 while targets stayed elevated. The ~2026-08-20 Q4 FY26 print — a 15-25% historical gapper — is the next binary and the only near-term re-accelerant. Kill line: A weekly close below $69 loses the reclaimed 200-day and mid-June recovery base, turning the re-rate into a failed reclaim; a weekly close below $55 breaks the May gap shelf. Fundamentally, Q4 FY26 GMV guided below $12.75B, 30+ day delinquency above 3%, or a second top-merchant defection after Walmart breaks the thesis. --- ### AGX — Argan, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: AI-data-center gas-EPC theme still accelerating (4.1+ GW gas backlog, $973.6M cash, zero debt), but AGX has round-tripped from the $805.75 ATH to $563, losing both the ~$675 breakout and ~$600 shelves. Mean reversion toward the pre-run $500s is underway — this is a base-and-reclaim watch (higher low in the $500s, reclaim of $600), not a fresh chase into the ~September Q2 backlog print. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 loses the pre-run consolidation base and argues the supercycle re-rate is unwinding toward the $400s rather than basing; secondary: a second straight QoQ backlog decline toward ~$2.5B (book-to-bill under 1 for two quarters) on the ~September Q2 print, or a top-4 hyperscaler cutting FY27 capex guide >10%. --- ### AGYS — Agilysys, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Hospitality vertical-SaaS recovery has re-accelerated into its print: AGYS ran ~+18% to $108.98 (2026-07-10) off the June ~$92 base, clearing the two lowest analyst targets ($100/$110) ahead of a confirmed 2026-07-27 Q1 FY2027 binary that houses the documented lumpy-bookings risk. Narrative intact but stretched — extension into an event rather than a fresh base. Kill line: A daily close below $98 (loses the rising 20-EMA that guided the July run off the ~$92 base); confirmed by a weekly close below $88 (June higher-low breakout shelf fails), or a 2026-07-27 Q1 print that cuts the >30% subscription-growth framing or brings revenue below double-digit YoY growth off the ~$74M Q1 FY2026 base. --- ### AIP — Arteris, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) beat and raised — revenue $24.1M +46%, TTM variable royalties $8.6M +65%, FY26 guide lifted to $95-98M — and the stock still closed $28.32 on 2026-08-14, 41.7% under the 6/30 high. The $33 weekly break fired while the fundamental condition did not. Broken structure, no base, no earnings catalyst until ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $26 extends the post-Q2 de-rating to fresh lows and confirms the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise drew no bid; secondarily, failure to reclaim the ~$34 shelf before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print leaves the structure broken. --- ### AIRO — AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Policy leg intact, price leg fading: the 2026-08-13 Section 232 drone tariffs (up to 100%, most effective 2026-09-03) plus a Q2 beat of $43.180M vs $31.212M consensus have stopped attracting a bid — $8.60 on 2026-08-21 against a $9.57 close on 2026-08-14, and no company release in eight sessions. 2026-09-03 is the next dated resolver; FY26 guidance was still only affirmed, not raised. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 ends the drone-tariff leg, putting price under both the 2026-08-14 close of $9.57 and the 2026-08-21 close of $8.60; secondary, 2026-09-03 passing with published exclusions to the >25kg tier or with no US defense order tied to the 2026-07-14 Blue UAS listing. --- ### AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKBA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: VOICE outcomes win (USRC trial stopped early, June 2026) de-risked Vafseo's dialysis-anemia case, but the tape bled to ~$1.22, only ~48% above the $0.82 low and still fading; the late-July/early-August Q2 print is the binary — commercial-ramp confirmation plus a possible DaVita signal vs another show-me quarter into the 2027 bundle cliff. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.15 loses the post-VOICE base and reopens the $0.82 52-week low; a Q2 print (late-July/early-August 2026) showing Vafseo revenue decelerating with another guidance cut, or the theme flipping to saturated on the 2027 bundle cliff, confirms the value-trap read. --- ### ALGM — Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The June AI data-center power-attach re-rate has flipped from being marked up to marked down: TD Cowen cut its target to $66 (2026-07-13) and Barclays downgraded to Equal-Weight at $48 (2026-07-20), the first target below the June range — days ahead of a binary ~2026-07-31 Q1 FY2027 print carrying the >20% data-center guide. Fresh entry into a decelerating target band ahead of an earnings gate; the setup does not clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 loses the June reclaim shelf and breaks the re-rate structure; a secondary break is a Q1 FY2027 data-center growth guide below 20% YoY on the ~2026-07-31 print. --- ### ALHC — Alignment Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Managed care & health services, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Profitable-MA-disruptor narrative broke on 2026-07-08: a whistleblower suit from a former Chief Transformation Officer alleges the +88% adjusted-EBITDA inflection was manufactured by reclassifying opex as capex across FY2024-25. Shares -16.7% to $20.03, breakout base gone, five securities-fraud probes open. The ~late-July Q2 print is now a binary under an accounting cloud — a broken-narrative stand-aside, not a dip to buy. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.50 confirms the whistleblower-driven breakdown and opens the pre-Q1 range; secondary trigger is any Q2 disclosure (~2026-07-30) of a restatement, adjusted-EBITDA revision, or FY26 guide cut validating the opex-as-capex reclassification allegation. --- ### ALK — Alaska Air Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Cyclical industrials, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The $44–47 shelf failed: the 2026-08-21 close of $40.41 grades the prior break condition as met, with RSI(14) at 22.0 and price 36.7% under the $63.86 high. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 confirms continuation through the zone where the CEO bought on 2026-08-20 and puts the March 2026 low in play; secondary: Q3 economic fuel disclosed above the $3.75/gal guidance assumption at the ~2026-10-22 print, or the sell-side median cutting through $50 rather than price closing the gap. --- ### ALLE — Allegion Public Limited Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALLE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Post-Q2 gap intact but the leg is cooling: $162.31 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) back to 51.9 from 61.1 a week earlier, and price now under the $164.75 mean target while every post-print broker update stays Neutral/Equal Weight. Electronic-access mix shift is the story; nothing dated tests it before the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $154 gives back the entire 2026-07-23 print-day gain and reopens the unfilled $137–$151 gap window; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-22) with electronics organic growth below high-single-digits after the May pre-buy would confirm the mix-shift leg stalling. --- ### ALMS — Alumis Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALMS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Psoriasis leg is fully told — 2026-08-10 ONWARD3 48-week data (75% PASI 90 / 54% PASI 100) left the stock 16.5% under its $30.30 52-week high. The only re-rating leg left is the undated LUMUS Phase 2b lupus topline, reaffirmed for Q3 2026 on the 2026-08-13 Q2 release. Binary headline risk is any-session through 2026-09-30. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 round-trips the April–June rising base that carried the stock from ~$20 into the high $20s; secondarily, a LUMUS Phase 2b SLE primary-endpoint miss, or 2026-09-30 passing with no topline and re-guided timing. --- ### ALNT — Allient Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALNT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Physical AI & robotics, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Record-orders story intact — Q2 2026 bookings $201.3M (+49% YoY), 1.31x book-to-bill, backlog $298.0M — but the supply picture changed after the note: the CEO's trusts sold 70,000 shares at $112.49–$115.765 on 2026-08-10 and 13D holder Juniper sold 165,991 shares into 2026-08-13. Narrative now maturing, with nothing dated to test it until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $96 round-trips the entire post-print re-rating (shares first traded to $96.02 on the 2026-08-05 report); secondary, a Q3 2026 book-to-bill under 1.0x or backlog printing below $298.0M. --- ### ALOT — AstroNova, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALOT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Terminal merger-arb pin. Arcline's $29.00 all-cash take-private cleared its HSR condition on 2026-07-31 and goes to a shareholder vote on 2026-08-25; the 2026-08-14 close of $28.91 leaves $0.09 of gross spread against a break tail toward the pre-deal $9–13 zone. The equity story ended at the 2026-06-16 signing. Kill line: A daily close below $27 — roughly a 7% gap to the fixed $29.00 cash consideration, and no longer explainable by antitrust timing now that the HSR waiting period expired 2026-07-31. Secondary: the 2026-08-25 special meeting adjourning, or failing to deliver the required majority of shares outstanding. --- ### ALTO — Alto Ingredients, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALTO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-01 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Ethanol-to-specialty/low-carbon pivot re-rated ~6x off $0.92, but both fuel catalysts — the June 45Z cash sale and the Russell index add — are spent, and price has round-tripped from the $6.11 July high to ~$4.64, losing the $5.10-$5.20 and $4.80 shelves. Story now hinges entirely on the binary 2026-08-10 Q2 print; no momentum edge and two-sided risk into it. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 breaks the last shelf beneath the post-Russell base and confirms the re-rate has rolled into distribution; a 2026-08-10 Q2 print with profit again carried by derivative marks and 45Z credits over core crush (board crush under ~$0.05/gal) is the fundamental break. --- ### AMAT — Applied Materials, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMAT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Record Q3 FY2026 (revenue $9.12B, +25% YoY; Q4 guide $10.25B ±$0.50B) keeps de-rating anyway: $507.18 on 2026-08-14, $492.32 on 2026-08-21, 31.8% under the $722.23 high, with every published target from $585 to $740 above the market. No base yet, and the 09-08/09-09 conference appearances are the only management voice before the November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $480 confirms the post-print decline as distribution of the whole June advance; secondary confirmation if the 2026-09-08 Citi and 2026-09-09 Goldman appearances pass without a reclaim of the $520–$540 area. --- ### AMBQ — Ambiq Micro, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI chips & memory, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-11) delivered net sales $33.9M, +89.7% YoY, and a Q3 guide above Street — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $64.51 sits 28.7% under the $90.48 high and below the spent $70 shelf. Fundamental acceleration has stopped buying price; June's ~$168M raise and one-directional insider selling sit on the supply side, and nothing is scheduled before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 gives back the August post-print range and the last of the post-Q1 re-rating band; secondary condition — the $73 area (UBS target, 2026-06-05 low) stays overhead into the ~2026-11-10 Q3 print, confirming the narrative has gone late-cycle. --- ### AMKR — Amkor Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory Thesis: A second anchor — the $1.5B Nvidia advanced-packaging/test partnership (2026-07-23) stacked on the 2026-06-16 TSMC 10-yr Arizona deal — is re-rating Amkor from single-customer Apple OSAT toward US AI back-end anchor. But every catalyst since April has been sold, and the ~2026-07-27 Q2 print is the binary gating a weekly close above the $74-75 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 loses the June recovery base and resumes the post-parabola downtrend; a Q2 miss or soft H2 guide on ~2026-07-27, or the advanced-packaging/AI-infra theme cooling to saturated, compounds the break. --- ### AMLX — Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMLX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Single-asset binary, now inside the guided window: Amylyx reaffirmed on 2026-08-06 that Phase 3 LUCIDITY topline for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia arrives late August or early September 2026. Sell-side marked targets up into it (BofA $30 on 2026-08-10, Baird $28 on 2026-08-07) while the stock cooled to $21.63 on 2026-08-14, 10.6% under its $24.19 high. Kill line: A daily close below $18 (unwinds the bulk of the three-month advance built into the readout); secondarily, the company-guided late-August/early-September 2026 LUCIDITY topline window elapsing with neither data nor restated timing. --- ### AMN — AMN Healthcare Services URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-02 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Healthcare-staffing cyclical recovery, real but maturing and now at the highs: ~$32.9 (2026-07-24), just off a fresh 52-wk high $36.27 (~+120% off $14.87). Truist's 2026-07-22 lift to a Street-high $40 Buy is the first target leading price, but the broad Street stays Hold ~$25-30 and the binary 2026-08-06 Q2 print — guide already below consensus — is the swing. Paying up into it is an extended entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 breaks the July higher-low base and the rising trend carrying the recovery leg; a close beneath the $26 May breakout shelf resets it to a failed-recovery value trap. Secondary: the 2026-08-06 print guiding Q3 revenue under the ~$630M run-rate, or Jefferies temp-nurse demand negative 3+ straight weeks. --- ### AMP — Ameriprise Financial, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Wealth-platform operating leverage still delivering — Q2 (2026-07-23) adjusted operating EPS $11.07 +22%, ROE 55%, record $1.81T AUM/AUA — but the August leg is pure multiple expansion: no disclosure since 07-23, new 52-week high 2026-08-11, RSI 75.1, and the $555.33 consensus target (2026-08-07) now sits below price. Nothing company-specific resolves before ~2026-10-21. Kill line: A weekly close below $540 returns price inside the eighteen-month range broken in the week ending 2026-08-11 and marks the high as a lower high against the 2025-01-29 closing high of $571.66. Secondary: a third straight quarter of client net flows under $3.1B at the ~2026-10-21 Q3 print. --- ### ANAB — AnaptysBio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-08-21 Thesis: The dateless wait acquired a docket: a 2026-07-28 stipulation set post-trial briefing to an Oct 20 Chancery argument, and ANAB has rebuilt from ~$54 (Jul 24) to $58.47 (Aug 14) on no company news. The written opinion deciding Jemperli reversion still has no date — the schedule gives the wait structure, not resolution. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 breaks the base built off the 2026-07-24 trough near $54 and reads as the market pricing an adverse ruling; secondarily, the 2026-10-20 post-trial argument passing with the written opinion still unscheduled returns the equity to dateless drift. --- ### ANRO — Alto Neuroscience Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Precision-psychiatry TRD re-rate broke to new highs on a low-information 2026-08-12 Q2 print (EPS -$0.65 vs -$0.73 est) and two same-week target revisions (BTIG $37 Buy, Wedbush $26 Neutral). The 2026-08-14 close of $32.14 sits 0.5% under the 52-week high with no efficacy readout until ALTO-300 topline in 1H 2027 — price accelerating, data calendar unchanged. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 gives back the August breakout through the July $28.85 high and ends the precision-psychiatry re-rate leg; secondary confirmation is the theme rolling to saturated or PACE-2 Phase 3 initiation slipping out of the guided early-2027 window at the Q3 print. --- ### AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AOSL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Thesis: Post-parabola digestion. The Apr–May "second-order AI power-semi" re-rate (~3x to $54.34) is fully priced, above the $30.50 consensus PT with no fresh company catalyst in 11+ weeks; the 2026-07-15 pop was a newsletter-driven volume spike, not a fundamental spark. The ~2026-08-05 FY26-Q4 print is the next binary — digestion, not a clean entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the May breakout shelf and confirms the full parabola reversal; separately, a FY26-Q4 print (~2026-08-05) showing advanced-computing/AI-data-center revenue decelerating or a soft FQ1 guide breaks the company-confirmed AI-content thesis. --- ### APGE — Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APGE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: HSR expiry (2026-08-05) and shareholder approval (2026-08-11) cleared the last stated conditions on AbbVie's $135.11 all-cash takeout, so what trades now is terminal merger-arb carry into a company-guided Q3-2026 close — capped at the bid, with break gravity toward the $90.38 pre-bid close. There is no momentum leg left to buy. Kill line: A daily close below $130 — a gap out of the arb band beneath the $135.11 bid — confirmed by an 8-K disclosing termination or an extended outside date; absent that, the leg simply ends at $135.11 on the effective date. --- ### APPN — Appian Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APPN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Second-order agentic-AI re-rating has extended past the print without new numbers: after the 2026-08-06 beat and FY26 raise to $845–853M, price ran from a $30.41 pre-print close to $38.30 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) 81.5. DA Davidson's 2026-08-14 raise to $42 was the last dated catalyst; nothing company-disclosed lands before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 gives back the $34.64 earnings-day close of 2026-08-07 and every post-print close, re-opening the $30.41 pre-print reference. Secondary: FY26 revenue guidance cut from $845–853M at the Q3 report, or Q3 billings again growing under 10% YoY. --- ### ARCT — Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: CSL exit hands back global KOSTAIVE plus flu/RSV/EBV rights, $12M cash and ~$16M of released liabilities, against $191.5M cash and runway guided through end-2028 — a platform-repossession re-rating that has run 91.3% in three months into an RSI(14) of 92.8. The undated ARCT-810 Phase 2 OTC readout, guided by 2026-09-30, is the near binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 unwinds the August expansion leg; secondary, the ARCT-810 Phase 2 OTC window closing on 2026-09-30 with no data and no regulatory plan disclosed. --- ### AREC — American Resources Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AREC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Critical-minerals refining narrative still producing dated milestones — $25M Department of War investment 2026-07-14, first commercial-scale germanium column 2026-08-07, Minor Source air permit for all planned Marion lines 2026-08-19 — but the asset sits at affiliated ReElement, no Form 10-Q has appeared for Q1 or Q2 2026, and the 2026-08-19 permit failed to lift price above the 2026-08-14 close of $2.88. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.40 gives back the July–August federal-award leg; secondarily, the 2026-08-25 dividend passing with no Form 10-Q on file for either the quarter ended 2026-03-31 or the quarter ended 2026-06-30 leaves the Nasdaq 5250(c)(1) notice of 2026-06-03 unresolved. --- ### ARHS — Arhaus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARHS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Written-order inflection is the leg: Q2 comparable written sales +12.5% vs delivered +4.0% (2026-08-06), with $226M cash and no long-term debt. Against it: the EPS beat carried a $23.8M one-time tariff refund, Q3 revenue is guided below consensus, and the three refreshed targets ($9/$10/$10) bracket the $9.38 close. Nothing company-dated resolves before the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 unwinds the post-2026-08-06 earnings repricing and puts price under the lowest of the three refreshed sell-side targets; secondary condition — Q3 delivered comparable sales at or beneath the -1% guide floor, showing the +12.5% written inflection did not convert. --- ### ARX — Accelerant Holdings URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Signed all-cash take-private at $20.25; the 2026-08-21 close of $19.59 leaves a fixed-price insurance-regulatory arb with the ceiling contractually set. Newly visible merger terms — go-shop ending 2026-09-22, outside date 2027-08-13 auto-extending to 2027-11-13, ticking amount that starts only after all other conditions clear — say the clock can run well past the guided H1 2027 close. Kill line: A daily close below $18.25, a discount to the $20.25 cash consideration far wider than anything held since 2026-08-13, marks repriced completion odds; a termination 8-K, or a proxy relying on the 2027-11-13 extended outside date, would confirm the break. --- ### ASST — Strive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: Treasury-premium narrative still inverted: the 2026-08-10 Q2 print booked a $257.6M loss, 94.1% mark-to-market, against a $94,761 average cost versus the $64,812 Strive itself paid in early August. Buying restarted (147 BTC, 08-03 to 08-07) but is funded off a $2.55B ATM at ~0.75x mNAV. The $12–13 shelf is the whole structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 ends the post-split $12–13 shelf and opens the ~$7 structural floor; secondary, mNAV staying under 1.0x while ATM issuance continues, or weekly accumulation reverting to July's ~20-coin pace. --- ### ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Advanced-packaging pricing power is real — quotes raised 20%+ (2026-07-01), 2026 capex hiked to US$8.5B, CoWoS-equivalent capacity tripling to 25k wpm — but the tape topped at $45.51 the same day and sits ~15% lower inside a 13% semi drawdown, with a binary Q2 margin print due ~2026-07-30. Fundamentally accelerating, structurally broken, into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 breaks the pre-breakout range floor (2026-06-05 flush low $34.03) and confirms $45.51 as a distribution top; secondarily, Q2 gross margin on ~2026-07-30 below the guided +20–100bps QoQ range, or a Q3 sequential guide under +5% QoQ. --- ### ATAI — AtaiBeckley Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Semi foundry & equipment, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Lilly takeout is now a process, not a story: DEFM14A filed, special meeting 2026-09-08, HSR filed 2026-07-29, close guided Q3 2026. The 2026-08-14 close of $7.26 sits $0.51 over the $6.75 cash leg, so all remaining return is an unread CVR agreement against a ~$4 deal-break zone. Upside is contractually capped. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.75 breaks the Lilly cash-consideration floor and marks the tape pricing deal-break risk, re-opening the pre-announcement ~$4 zone; secondarily, a failed or adjourned 2026-09-08 shareholder vote, or an FTC second request pushing completion past the guided Q3 2026 window. --- ### ATEN — A10 Networks Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-03 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical Thesis: AI-security re-rate off the 2026-06-15 TrojAI deal has stalled: ATEN churning ~$35 below the $37.36 ATH, momentum cooling as Mizuho lifts its target to $34 but stays Neutral — analyst catch-up, not fresh conviction. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the next binary; the extension into it is a chase, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the June breakout base, rising 20-EMA and $30–34 consensus shelf, ending the leg. Secondary: an Aug 5 Q2 print with revenue under ~$77M or a cut to the 10–12% FY26 growth guide, or the AI-security theme flipping to fully mainstream/saturated. --- ### ATHM — Autohome Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATHM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, Semi foundry & equipment, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: Cash-return re-rating in a shrinking business, now at negative enterprise value: US$2.62bn market cap against US$2.67bn cash, EV -US$36.57m (2026-08-16), a US$400m buyback authorised 2026-07-28 and an RMB1.5bn 2026 dividend floor. The advance stalled through the first half of August; the 2026-08-20 interim print is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $21.10 unwinds the 2026-07-28 buyback-announcement advance and returns price into the 2026-07-13/27 shelf ($21.11–$21.80); secondarily, a 2026-08-20 Q2 print with revenue down more than Q1's 27.9% YoY against the RMB1,758.1m Q2 2025 base and repurchases disclosed at or near the US$62.3m reported at 2026-05-22. --- ### ATKR — Atkore Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Cyclical-repair frame is closed: the 2026-08-02 definitive all-cash merger with Prysmian at $95.00/share pins the stock, and the 2026-08-14 close of $93.80 leaves $1.20 of gross spread. The read is now completion timing — HSR plus Austria/Australia/Canada clearance and a majority-of-outstanding vote — against a targeted year-end 2026 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $88 (roughly a 7% discount to the $95.00 cash consideration) prices genuine deal-break or delay risk rather than carry; secondarily an HSR second request or an in-depth antitrust review in Austria, Australia or Canada, or a proxy timetable pushing the close past the targeted year-end 2026. --- ### AUGO — Aura Minerals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Gold/copper producer basing $53–$76 under a broken ~$72 shelf after a ~45% fall from the $110 high. Q2 output slipped 8% QoQ — first sequential drop after a record Q1 — as gold cools to the low-$4,000s and sell-side keeps trimming (JPM to $91 on 2026-07-16, BofA to $94). A $200M buyback floors ~7x forward, but there is no reclaim yet: basing watch, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 loses the mid-June capitulation low, resumes the downtrend and undercuts the buyback floor; paired with gold losing $4,000/oz it tilts the gold-miner theme toward dead. Structure only repairs on a weekly close back above ~$72 on rising volume. --- ### AVLN — Avalyn Pharma Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVLN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-05 Thesis: Post-IPO re-rating in an inhaled-antifibrotic single-asset story: the 2026-08-14 close of $39.25 is +118% over the $18.00 April IPO price with RSI(14) at 89.2, yet the MIST Phase 2b FVC readout that sets the value is guided to 2H 2027. Coverage is still widening (Morgan Stanley target to $57, 2026-08-13) while the ~2026-10-26 lock-up releases the first real supply. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 erases the entire three-month advance into the 2026-08-14 close of $39.25, with no company-guided efficacy datapoint before 2H 2027 to arrest it; a secondary/follow-on filing around the ~2026-10-26 lock-up expiry is the confirming second condition. --- ### AVNS — Avanos Medical, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVNS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Resolved, not pending: AIP completed the $25.00/share all-cash take-private on 2026-07-27 and AVNS ceased NYSE trading the same day (EV ~$1.272B). Holders received cash; there is no listed security, no narrative leg and no catalyst left. The file is a closed record — dead as of 2026-07-27. Kill line: A daily close below $25.00 is no longer printable: AVNS regular-way trading ended with the 2026-07-27 completion of the $25.00/share AIP merger and NYSE delisting, so no tape exists to break. Only a resumed listing — an unwound deal or a reassigned symbol — would reopen the name. --- ### AVR — Anteris Technologies Global Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-catalyst drift: the CMS/first-patient/France de-risking sequence is spent, and Q2 (reported 2026-08-12) missed both lines — EPS $(0.30) vs $(0.21), revenue $1.009M vs $1.500M — yet the 2026-08-14 close held $9.40 with RSI 66.9. Nothing dated inside 30 days and a $250M ATM in the money above $9.00. Price-led, maturing, low-conviction. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 loses the TD Securities ATM reference and confirms the July–August recovery as a failed retest; secondary: an 8-K/prospectus supplement or Appendix 4C disclosing heavy ATM issuance into strength, or any PARADIGM enrollment suspension or DSMB action. --- ### AVTR — Avantor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The post-print re-rating is digesting rather than extending: $13.66 on 2026-08-14 versus $13.59 on 2026-08-07, RSI(14) cooling 77.0 to 69.5, and the 2026-07-30 target cluster of $14–$16 already reached. Management's Q3 guide — about 250 bp organic growth and $0.20–$0.21 adjusted EPS — is the next checkable number, and it does not print for roughly ten weeks. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 closes the 2026-07-29 post-print gap and returns price to the pre-raise range; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-28 est.) that misses the guided ~250 bp organic growth, or an FY2026 organic band walked back below zero. --- ### AVTX — Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The July soft catalyst has passed: Q2 landed 2026-08-06 and delivered a schedule — registrational Phase 3 in hidradenitis suppurativa initiating H1 2027 — so the post-LOTUS story now sits in a ~10-month gap with no company-dated clinical event. Two houses cut targets 2026-08-07 while keeping Buy. Price $19.59 (2026-08-14), -14.3% from the $22.87 high, RSI 50.8: maturing and range-bound. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 breaks the post-LOTUS consolidation floor carried through this coverage; secondary confirmation if the Q3 report (est. early November) merely reiterates H1 2027 Phase 3 initiation with no end-of-Phase-2 regulatory or BD news, or further sell-side targets are marked down. --- ### AVXL — Anavex Life Sciences Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Crypto exchanges & financials, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Governance, not approval, is the leg: PVG's six-nominee GOLD slate meets the board's WHITE slate at the 2026-09-24 annual meeting. Since 2026-08-15 the contest kept filing (8-K 08-17, DFAN14A 08-19) while price stalled — $3.24 on 2026-08-21 vs $3.22 on 08-14, RSI(14) 74.7 to 60.1 — and the 12b-25 window lapsed ~08-17 with the June 10-Q still unfiled. Two quarters delinquent into a binary vote. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.75 removes effectively all of the three-month advance recorded to the 2026-08-21 close of $3.24 and marks the control premium coming out; secondary — the 2026-09-24 meeting passing with the incumbent slate seated and no strategic review announced. --- ### AZTA — Azenta, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZTA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: No new company information since the Aug 4 print, yet price ran from $33.39 (Aug 11) to $37.40 (Aug 21) with RSI(14) at 81.5 and the six-analyst consensus target of $34.80 now below spot. The self-help leg ($529M cash, no debt, $50.0M repurchased, Politan ~10%) is intact; the entry is extended into a catalyst vacuum that runs to the mid-November Q4/FY26 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 unwinds the news-free August advance and returns price to the first post-print shelf ($31.82 Aug 5, $32.04 Aug 7). Secondary: a mid-November Q4/FY2026 print walking organic growth back below flat, or a quarter reporting zero repurchases under the $250M authorization. --- ### AZZ — AZZ Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Beat-and-raise fired 2026-07-08 — Q1 adj EPS $1.85 vs $1.69, FY27 guide lifted twice on Metal Coatings momentum — but the catalyst is now behind the stock, which sits at all-time highs (~$157), ~23x forward and above consensus, with Wells Fargo's first post-print target ($144) below market. Late chase into a maturing grid theme with the substation leg being divested. Kill line: A weekly close below $148 forfeits the May breakout shelf ($151.67 peak) and turns the June push into a failed breakout; a secondary confirmation is Metal Coatings segment margin slipping from the ~31% band on the next print, or the grid theme rolling to saturated as the AVAIL/nVent EPG divestiture closes. --- ### BAK — Braskem S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Emerging markets, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Q2 2026 (released 2026-08-14) printed US$1.043B recurring EBITDA on a Middle East supply shock management called tactical — and the ADR closed $1.95, pricing the capital structure rather than the P&L. The 2026-06-26 São Paulo shield expires 2026-08-24 with the extrajudicial plan still unfiled; equity-impairment tail is live. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.80 takes out the August low zone and the $1.83 floor cited on the unadjusted ADR, confirming equity impairment is being priced; secondary condition: 2026-08-24 passing with no extrajudicial filing and no injunction extension, or a judicial reorganization petition instead. --- ### BAND — Bandwidth Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Late-stage small-cap CPaaS squeeze: +360% YoY into the mid-$70s, ~5% below the $79.08 high, with Citizens ($86, 2026-07-20). Riley ($85) both lifting targets in July. A confirmed Q2 print on 2026-07-29 is a binary two trading days out — the tape is extended into the catalyst, not based under it. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 breaks the June momentum leg and opens mean-reversion toward the ~$53 pre-convert base; a 2026-07-29 Q2 print that misses on revenue or EBITDA guidance and gaps the tape lower confirms the stand-aside. --- ### BB — BlackBerry Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI enterprise software, Cybersecurity, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Q1 FY27 gave the pivot real numbers (QNX $72.3M vs the $60-64M guide, FY27 raised to $594-621M), but the parabola broke: after a $13.59 high the stock fell ~37% to ~$8.54 on a meme unwind plus insider selling. Narrative maturing, price structure broken — a rolled-over retail squeeze, not a fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 forfeits the post-earnings base and opens a full retrace toward the ~$6.20 breakout shelf; secondarily, any walk-back of the raised FY27 QNX $295-312M guide or continued insider distribution. --- ### BBBY — Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation, Crypto exchanges & financials, Squeeze & momentum setups Thesis: Lemonis "Everything Home" roll-up keeps closing deals — Container Store now wholly owned (2026-07-08), TwoPonds folded in (2026-07-01) — but the tape has bled from $5.83 to ~$4.96 and sits on the $4.26 52-week low as shares balloon past 81M. Accelerating M&A on a chart making fresh lows is a value trap; the rescheduled 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the only near-term binary. Kill line: A daily close below $4.26 breaks the 52-week low and confirms downtrend continuation, voiding any long. Absent a reclaim of the declining 50-day MA on a higher low into the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, it stays a falling knife with no momentum edge. --- ### BBWI — Bath & Body Works, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBWI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Citi upgraded to Buy at $25 on 2026-08-18 and JPMorgan lifted to $24 the same day, but the 6.5% pop to $20.04 fully retraced to $19.45 by 2026-08-21 — attention arrived without a lasting bid. The 2026-08-26 Q2 print is the binary: $1.50B/$0.24 consensus against a $0.20–$0.25 company EPS guide and an FY sales guide of down 2.5%–4.5%. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 loses the July shelf and reopens the low-$14 area; secondarily, a 2026-08-26 Q2 print that cuts the FY2026 net-sales guide beneath the down-2.5%-to-4.5% band with no offsetting margin or capital-return raise. --- ### BBY — Best Buy Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Tape flipped since early July: BBY broke to a fresh 52-week high $87.35 (~$85.41 on 2026-07-17, +27.6% YTD) on RGB-LED TV exclusivity plus an AI-PC/MacBook refresh cycle. But price sits ~8% above the $79.15 consensus target while Loop Capital and UBS downgrade into strength and the Schulze trust sold 900,000 shares on 2026-07-13/14. Strength without sell-side or insider confirmation. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 fails the July breakout and drops price back into the $72–$78 recovery range it spent June building; secondarily, a Q2 FY27 comp print on ~2026-08-27 below the ~+1% guide would confirm the inflection stalled at one quarter. --- ### BCAX — Bicara Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BCAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Bifunctional EGFR/TGF-β narrative in HPV-negative head & neck cancer stalled after the ASCO 2026 three-year-OS re-rate: $27.76 close is ~10% off the $30.99 high on roughly half prior turnover, consensus PT ~$31.46 sits only 13% above spot, and the FORTIFI-HN01 interim isn't until mid-2027 — an eleven-month catalyst vacuum the 2026-08-11 Q2 print (enrollment color only) won't fill. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 breaks the June breakout shelf and confirms the post-ASCO leg has rolled over; a FORTIFI-HN01 enrollment slip past the end-2026 "substantial enrollment" guide, or a follow-on equity raise near current levels, compounds it. --- ### BHC — Bausch Health Companies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Levered deleveraging/separation stub: $2.41B equity on $20,239M long-term debt principal, with an 87% Bausch + Lomb stake as the main asset. The 2026-07-29 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $1.26 vs $1.04, FY sales guide to $10.790–11.040B) drove the $7.90 high, and price has since given the whole move back to $6.44. No confirmed catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.90 surrenders the bulk of the three-month advance and ends the post-print leg; secondarily, a Q3 print that trims the FY2026 ex-B+L adjusted EBITDA range of $3.025–3.1B or cuts the maintained 2027 $2.7B outlook. --- ### BHVN — Biohaven Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Binary-catalyst biotech: the re-rate off the $7.48 Nov-CRL low stalled at ~$16 in early July and drifted to $13.85 on 2026-08-21. The undated 2H-26 RISE3 topline now races a live $350.0M J.P. Morgan ATM (424B5, 2026-05-04) against ~$270.5M cash at 2026-06-30; targets span $10 (H.C. Wainwright) to $23 (RBC). Kill line: A weekly close below $12 breaks the June consolidation floor and ends the leg off the $7.48 low; secondary break conditions are disclosed ATM issuance under the 2026-05-04 $350.0M program at prices beneath the recent range, or 2H 2026 elapsing without the RISE3 topline. --- ### BIDU — Baidu, Inc. ADS URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: Q2 print confirmed for 2026-08-18 pre-market is the binary. The ADR bleed flattened — cap $37.10B (08-10) vs $37.21B (07-24) — but the 2026-08-14 close of $103.67 sits under the $110 shelf, -36.2% from the $162.52 high, RSI 45.7. Sum-of-parts (Kunlunxin, Apollo Go London) is the narrative leg; three weeks after the July catalysts the US line still hasn't confirmed it. The theme is maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the $103–107 compression built since 2026-07-24 and confirms the July dual-primary and Apple Intelligence headlines produced no lasting ADR bid; secondarily, the 2026-08-18 print passing with AI Cloud growth below the Q1 +33% YoY and no dated Kunlunxin or HK dual-primary timeline. --- ### BIOA — BioAge Labs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIOA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-08-29 Thesis: The ESC venue hypothesis failed: ZEUS is absent from the published ESC 2026 Hot Line programme (Munich, 2026-08-28 to 08-31), so the full dataset that would separate NLRP3 from IL-6 blockade does not land in August and no substitute date is named. Price made a lower close at $9.48 on 2026-08-21 with nothing disclosed since 2026-08-05; the 2H 2026 QUELL-CV topline is the only binary left. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 breaks the post-crash August range and puts the pre-pivot $4.11 low back in scope; secondarily, ESC Congress closing 2026-08-31 with no full ZEUS dataset and no named alternative venue leaves the read-through unresolved past the QUELL-CV window. --- ### BIRK — Birkenstock Holding plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIRK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The August frame's $36 weekly level broke — the week ending 2026-08-21 closed $35.64, retracing the entire 2026-08-13 beat-and-raise reaction ($41.01 premarket, then a −4.02% close at $39.35 on 2026-08-14). Fundamentals still guide to 15% cc growth and ≥€710M adjusted EBITDA, but the price narrative is dead and no company catalyst exists before the ~December FY2026 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 loses the May 2026 low of $31.12 and turns the FY26 range into a distribution top; secondary condition — the $52.05 median target cluster following Williams Trading's 2026-08-19 cut to $39 down toward spot, with no Q4/FY26 results date announced by fiscal year end 2026-09-30. --- ### BJRI — BJ's Restaurants, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BJRI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Thesis: The 2026-07-30 re-acceleration (comps +6.5%, traffic +8.3%, FY comp guide raised to +3–4%) is priced; no new operating datapoint or target revision since 2026-07-31, and the next print is ~10 weeks out. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 gives back the pre-Q2 shelf ($60.77 was the 52-week high on 2026-07-06) and un-prices the 2026-07-30 guidance raise; secondarily, Q3 FY2026 comps under +4% or restaurant-level margin below the 17.2% Q2 level. --- ### BKNG — Booking Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKNG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Travel & leisure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Capital-return compounder re-rated on the 2026-08-04 Q2 print (adj EPS $2.54, +15%, on +8% revenue and $3.7B repurchased), but the sell-side reset ended with Argus at $245 on 2026-08-10 and price has stalled — $212.06 on 2026-08-14, RSI 75.6, still 6.5% under the $226.92 high, with no company event until Q3 results estimated 2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 gives back the post-2026-08-04 earnings advance; Q3 room nights printing at or under +3% — the low end of the guided +3% to +5% range — would confirm the volume leg supporting the buyback arithmetic is breaking. --- ### BKSY — BlackSky Technology Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKSY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-16 Themes: Space economy Thesis: Gen-3 subscription ramp landed in Q2 (2026-08-06): revenue $33.316M vs $30.68M est, +50% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $4.7M, FY26 guide affirmed at $130–150M. But EPS missed at $(0.54) vs $(0.36), cash is $36.9M against a $50–60M capex guide, and the $30.92 close on 2026-08-14 sits 40% under the $51.63 high with RSI 79.1 and a live $250M ATM. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 ends the post-Q2 recovery leg; secondarily, a Gen-3 5/6 launch window slipping out of Q3 2026 with no replacement date, or FY2026 revenue guidance cut beneath the affirmed $130–150M band. --- ### BLDP — Ballard Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLDP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Q2 (release 2026-07-31) delivered the backlog inflection — $156.6M, +38.8% QoQ, 20% gross margin — and the stock still made new lows at $2.70 (2026-08-14), -57.7% from the $6.38 high. The £275M GeoPura deal converts the turnaround into an energy-as-a-service pivot funded with ~14.4% dilution; broken structure, no base, no dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.50 confirms the failed turnaround re-rate is extending with no base formed and reopens the pre-2026 range; secondarily, the GeoPura closing slipping past year-end 2026, or a Q3 backlog print back below $150M, would remove the only improving datapoint. --- ### BLKB — Blackbaud, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLKB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Buyback-driven re-rating extended rather than stalled: $47.52 on 2026-08-21 versus $45.45 on 2026-08-11, with RSI(14) cooling from 80.1 (2026-08-07) to 62.8 while price rose. Price now sits within ~2% of the $48.50 consensus average target, and no company-dated event lands before the still-unscheduled Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $42 puts price back under the entire post-Q2 shelf built at the 2026-08-07/$45.87 and 2026-08-11/$45.45 closes; a trim to the FY26 revenue guide of $1.173B-$1.179B, or organic growth under 3.0% at the Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.), is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### BLMN — Bloomin' Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Margin-repair re-rating off the 2026-08-05 raise (FY26 adj EPS to $0.90–$1.00) is holding but no longer expanding: $10.55 close 2026-08-14, RSI cooled 71.1→66.0, flow down to two hold-rated $12 targets. Brinker's 2026-08-12 print showed Chili's traffic +1.5% against Outback's -2.8% — the category has guest growth, Outback isn't taking it. Nothing company-specific until ~2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.90 unwinds the 2026-08-05 guidance-raise advance (that session ran $10.88 pre-market to $12.29 intraday). --- ### BMA — Banco Macro S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Credit-recovery leg broke on the company's own numbers at the 2026-08-19 Q2 print: NPLs 6.25% (from 5.40%), coverage 95.39% (from 109.8%), FY cost-of-risk guide raised to 6.5–7% and real loan growth cut to 2–5% from ~20%. ADR closed $72.84 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) 9.7, three-month change now −3.1%; country risk 517bp. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 confirms the breakdown extends past the August capitulation and leaves no reference above the spring range; secondarily, an INDEC August CPI at or above 2.1% MoM at the ~2026-09-11 release with core above 1.8% takes the disinflation leg down alongside the already-broken credit leg. --- ### BMNR — BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: Premium-to-NAV funding engine is closed; the 2026-08-10 release shows capital flipping from coin to float — 7,391 ETH bought for $14.3M (smallest week of 2026) against 3.0M shares retired, with cash down to $104M from $173M. The narrative on offer is a shrinking denominator at roughly parity to $11.6B of stated holdings. Next weekly release 2026-08-17. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 gives back the 2026-07-27 repricing that carried price through the $18 shelf; secondary conditions, a weekly release showing shares outstanding rising instead of falling, or ETH through the $1,700s with total holdings marked below $10.5B. --- ### BOLD — Boundless Bio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Merger-arb wrapper, not an oncology stock: the object is a planned $44–48M pre-close cash dividend plus a 3.69% stub in the AATD base-editing NewCo. Week of 2026-08-14 added owners (ADAR1 13G at 8.8%) but no deal documents — still no S-4, no declared per-share dividend — while $2.83 sits above the $2.41–$2.60 band where the largest holder's July Form 4s printed. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.40 breaks the June–July Form 4 accumulation band and prices deal-break or dividend-compression risk; secondary break is no Form S-4 on the EDGAR record by 2026-09-30 against the guided Q4-2026 close. --- ### BRBR — BellRing Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The $11–12 post-print shelf broke on no news: $11.56 on 2026-08-07 to $10.75 on 2026-08-14, RSI 27.9, -74.8% off the $42.68 high. A third FY26 EBITDA cut ($275–295M from $315–335M) killed the margin narrative; the repair — a double-digit Premier shake price increase effective Q1 FY2027 — is untestable until the ~mid-November Q4 print. No dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.40 abandons the last shelf to survive the 2026-08-04 print and re-exposes the May 2026 low area; a fourth FY-EBITDA reduction at the ~mid-November Q4 report — reported FY26 adjusted EBITDA under $275M or an initial FY2027 guide beneath that range — would confirm the reset is open-ended. --- ### BRKR — Bruker Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-04 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Post-ASMS instrument re-rate broke back toward the $64.54 high and added a second leg: semiconductor-metrology strength (orders +20% YoY) pulled Leerink to $70 and top targets to $65–70. But at ~$62 the name sits ~13% over its 50-DMA and above the $56.79 consensus mean, into a binary Aug 4 Q2 print for a story that isn't earnings-driven — strong tape, rich fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 loses the June higher-low shelf and the rising 50-day line, reopening mean-reversion toward the pre-ASMS low-$40s base; secondarily, an Aug 4 Q2 print with organic revenue still negative, or a priced common-equity takedown off the June universal shelf, breaks the re-rate. --- ### BROS — Dutch Bros Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BROS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-12 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Drive-thru coffee comps re-accelerating (Q1 +8.3%, FY guide raised) and the sell-side is now catching up — Stephens initiated Overweight $80, Morgan Stanley to $88 in mid-July. But June's run to ~$72 cooled to the mid-$60s, and the 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary. Fundamentals accelerating, positioning maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the May–June breakout base and ends the momentum leg; a secondary break would be Q2 same-shop comps decelerating below the raised +4–6% FY guide on the 2026-08-05 print, or targets ceasing to rise as the theme saturates. --- ### BSIN — Big Sky Industrial Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Industrial power & grid, Critical materials & rare earths, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Helium/45Q pivot still on schedule after the 2026-08-11 Q2 print; the 2026-08-20 Sidoti deck added a first Phase 1 EBITDA figure (~$15M/yr). Same day a final 13D/A put Sage Road Capital at 4.9%. Price $1.40 against the $1.43 closing high, RSI 77.0, no scheduled catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.15 forfeits the late-July shelf the 2026-08-11 print was launched from; secondary: a new offering or fresh committed-equity-facility draws, or the Q3 release (~2026-11-10 est.) moving commissioning out of 2026 or first revenue past Q1 2027. --- ### BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Both legs of the wrapper are now rolling over: WhiteFiber (WYFI, ~70.5% owned) de-rated from $38.50 to $27.57 as the June neocloud mania cooled, and BTBT slid to ~$1.50, a step above its $1.25 low. SOTP discount still ~49% (~$745.6M WYFI stake + ~$295M ETH vs ~$530M cap) but no 2026 catalyst closes it — a falling-knife value/event, not the velocity edge. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.40 opens the $1.25 52-week low and confirms the permanent value-trap re-rate; secondary conditions: a WYFI weekly close below $25 (stake-value collapse) or ETH back under $1,700, either of which validates the discount rather than narrowing it. --- ### BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies Group URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTDR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Spring miner-to-AI re-rate has fully unwound: BTDR lost the $15 shelf to $12.56 (2026-07-09) as AI-cloud ARR plateaued at ~$69M for a 2nd month. A signed-but-not-effective Tydal colocation lease (2026-06-29) and a $36M Nevada plant are the replacement legs, but BTC in the low-$60s and a broken structure say the base has not formed, so there is nothing here to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 confirms the breakdown from the lost $15 spring shelf; secondarily, the ~mid-July June production update printing AI-cloud ARR under the stalled ~$69M run-rate, the Tydal lease conditions precedent lapsing without becoming effective, or BTC sustaining below $55K forcing miner-complex liquidation. --- ### BTE — Baytex Energy Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock. Dormant oil-beta is now drifting into a ~2026-07-30 Q2 print that isn't the driver; oil and price structure both have to re-fire before the setup is worth chasing. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 on the US-listed shares breaks the early-July oversold base and forfeits the reclaimed 200-day line; secondary confirm is WTI losing $70 as Hormuz traffic normalizes and Iranian barrels return under a renewed sanctions waiver. --- ### BTGO — BitGo Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Broken IPO that cleared its 2026-07-21 lockup without a supply flood but is grinding on the $4.665 all-time low with no bounce; Goldman cut its target to $7.75, and the undated $100M Galaxy verdict plus the ~2026-08-26 Q2 print are the only wildcards. A failing base to watch for a bottom, not to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.66 (loses the July all-time low) confirms the post-lockup supply has broken the floor and the downtrend resumes; a decisive weekly close back above $8.50 with a confirmed higher low would be the first constructive flip. --- ### BWIN — The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI enterprise software Thesis: Take-private premium is bleeding while sell-side chases it higher: price slipped to $27.25 (2026-07-17) from $28.41 (2026-07-02) even as KBW went to $31 and JPM to $30. Nothing is signed, and the 2026-07-30 Q2 print (guide $485–490M, mid-single-digit organic) is the binary that either funds the deal math or collapses it. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 unwinds the take-private premium; a 2026-07-30 print missing the $485–490M guide or organic below mid-single digits breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### BWMN — Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-13 Thesis: Not a growth story — a cash-deal spread. Bernhard Capital's $43.00 all-cash take-private (signed 2026-08-10) caps the name; the 2026-08-21 close of $42.61 is $0.39 under it, down from a $0.70 gap on 2026-08-14. The go-shop expires 5:00 p.m. ET 2026-09-13 and is the only route above $43.00. Kill line: A daily close below $40.50 — a discount to the $43.00 cash consideration wider than ordinary completion noise, implying repriced financing, antitrust or vote risk. Secondary: the go-shop lapsing 5:00 p.m. ET 2026-09-13 with no competing or excluded-party proposal disclosed, fixing the ceiling at $43.00. --- ### BXC — BlueLinx Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Housing-distribution margin inflection in a 7.86M-share float has stopped generating headlines: after a 52-week high at $91.41, the 2026-08-21 close of $84.60 sits back inside the $83–$84 target band raised 2026-08-06, and the 2026-08-18 July starts print (single-family 808k SAAR, -15.7% YoY) cut against the Q3 volume guide. No company catalyst before the ~November Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 breaks the post-print re-rating shelf and puts price under the entire $83–$84 raised-target band; a ~November Q3 print with specialty gross margin at or under 18.0% and adjusted EBITDA below the $28.4M ex-duty Q2 base would confirm the beat was one-time. --- ### CAI — Caris Life Sciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Oncology molecular-profiling re-rate: the 2026-08-05 Q2 beat ($263.7M vs $238.1M est) plus an FY26 guide lift to $1.030–1.040B and positive adjusted EBITDA of $55.7M flipped the story to self-funding growth, driving a 68.9% three-month advance. But the 2026-08-21 close of $26.27 is already through the $26.50 median Street target with RSI(14) at 82.6 and no confirmed catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 unwinds the post-2026-08-05 re-rate (under the J.P. Morgan $25 and Evercore ISI $26 targets, near Piper Sandler's $21 Hold). Secondary: FY26 guidance merely reiterated at $1.030–1.040B, rather than raised, at the ~November Q3 print. --- ### CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-29 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Casual-dining re-rate got a genuine second leg: Citi's 2026-07-10 raise to a street-high $90 (Buy) on a rewards/app traffic-inflection thesis gapped shares 7% to all-time highs (~$86, 52wk high $86.66 on 2026-07-18). For the first time the street high sits above price. But the confirmed 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the binary test — 7 trading days out, with price ~31% above the June base and Q1 North Italia traffic still -6%. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 closes the 2026-07-10 Citi gap and removes the traffic-inflection leg. Secondary: flagship comps turning negative or North Italia traffic staying at/below -6% on the 2026-07-28 Q2 print, or a cut to the 25bps portfolio margin-expansion target. --- ### CARG — CarGurus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CARG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-print re-rate has stalled and faded: $38.98 on 2026-08-07 (0.1% under the $39.03 52-week high) to $36.85 on 2026-08-21, with RSI back to 49.7. Seven desks now carry $39–$44 targets and zero upgrades, two insiders sold into the level, and mid-August Manheim fell 1.2% MoM. No company catalyst until the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 unwinds the post-print re-rate and returns price to the mid-July range (2026-07-17 close $35.00); a Q3 print at or under the $253.5M guide floor, or a second consecutive sub-$50M repurchase quarter, would confirm the break is fundamental rather than positional. --- ### CBLL — CeriBell, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBLL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Managed care & health services, Binary-catalyst biotech, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: August re-rating is reimbursement-driven: CMS granted an NTAP of up to $2,171 per eligible Medicare case for the Ceribell Delirium Monitor on 2026-08-03 (effective 2026-10-01) and FY26 guidance went to $114–117M on 2026-08-10. Narrative accelerating, but the headline sequence is spent — the 2026-08-21 close of $24.20 sits 2.8% under the 52-week high with RSI(14) 86 and CEO/CFO Form 4 sales at ~$25.03 on 2026-08-19. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.50 gives back the August NTAP-and-guidance repricing and undercuts every disclosed insider sale print from 2026-08-13 onward; secondary, the 2026-10-01 NTAP effective date passes and the Q3 call (~2026-11-09, est.) carries no delirium conversion detail. --- ### CBRL — Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Legacy-diner turnaround where the leadership leg is now spent: Deno took over 2026-08-10 and price went nowhere (2026-08-07 close $57.79 → 2026-08-21 $57.65) while RSI(14) reset from 63.9 to 49.6. The sell-side chased in late July (Piper $32→$51, BofA $40→$47, Wells Fargo $60) yet the 10-analyst average target is still $45. Nothing dated resolves until the ~2026-09-22 Q4 FY26 print and first FY27 guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 unwinds the July–August range and returns price inside the $45 average published target band; secondary break is a Q4 FY26 print around 2026-09-22 pairing the FY26 finish with an FY27 outlook beneath the $3.27–3.30B FY26 run-rate, or the theme flipping to saturated on a failed retest of $60.71. --- ### CBZ — CBIZ, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Deal-completion story now, not an operating one: the 2026-08-21 close of $54.66 sits $0.34 under the signed $55.00 all-cash terms, in from $0.54 on 2026-08-14. The go-shop expiring 11:59pm ET 2026-08-27 is the only mechanism that can print above $55.00; the new wrinkle is a 2026-08-04 10-K/A carrying a KPMG adverse opinion on internal controls. Kill line: A daily close below $52 — a gap to terms wider than roughly 5% — would mark the market discounting completion rather than timing; --- ### CCRN — Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Thesis: Situation settled: the Knox Lane take-private became effective 2026-07-21 at $13.25 cash, Nasdaq suspended trading that morning and filed Form 25 the same day. No listed security, no residual claim, no forward catalyst — any CCRN bar dated after 2026-07-21 is stale vendor data. Kill line: A daily close below $13.25 cannot print: the common stock was suspended from Nasdaq before the 2026-07-21 open, Nasdaq filed Form 25 that day, and each share converted into the right to receive $13.25 cash. The situation is terminated — no listed security, no dated catalyst ahead. --- ### CCXI — Churchill Capital Corp XI URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: De-SPAC humanoid pure-play now maturing: Unitree's 2026-08-19 STAR debut (+487% close, ~$53B) lifted CCXI for one session before the move fully round-tripped — $17.07 on 2026-08-14 to $14.57 on 2026-08-21, RSI 73.4 to 43.5. Still no public S-4, no proxy, no vote date. Everything above the ~$10 trust reference is premium on an undated vote. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 cuts the premium over the ~$10 trust reference by roughly a third from the 2026-08-21 close and ends the July–August advance; a public S-4 landing with no shareholder-vote date, or "close in 2026" leaving company communications, is the confirming secondary condition. --- ### CDNL — Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Post-blowoff digestion is deepening: the ~4x data-center site-work roll-up has bled from a $96 high back to its $63 average analyst target, now below the $73 secondary price and the 50-DMA. Q1 organic +64% and an $854M backlog keep fundamentals accelerating, but the momentum leg is broken and Zacks just cut it to Hold. No clean entry until it bases above $60 or the ~Aug 11 Q2 print resets expectations. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 forfeits the entire pre-June base and confirms mean reversion through the $63 average analyst target toward the low-$50s and the $51.30 insider shelf; secondary breaks are an FY26 guide cut under $675M or Q2 organic growth decelerating below ~40% YoY on the ~Aug 11 print. --- ### CDW — CDW Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Second-order AI-server reseller whose ~37% recovery off the $97 low has stalled: a mid-July push to $144 round-tripped to $133 by 2026-07-17, right in the fairway of the ~$145 consensus target. The re-rate (JPM, MS $170, Citi $145) is largely priced; the 2026-08-05 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the laggard re-accelerates or fades. Kill line: A weekly close below $120 turns the recovery into a failed bounce, losing the late-May breakout shelf and flattened 20-EMA; secondarily a 2026-08-05 Q2 print with net-sales growth decelerating to low-single-digits or gross margin below 21.0%, or the AI-datacenter theme flipping to saturated. --- ### CECO — CECO Environmental Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CECO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-28 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: 2nd-order AI-power name — Q1 orders +97% YoY and a first-ever >$1B backlog (2026-04-28) feed the datacenter/electrification capex wave, and the closed Thermon merger doubled EBITDA. But price rolled over ~25% off the $101.24 ATH to $75.63, sliding into a 2026-08-06 Q2 print that is the next binary. Structure is digesting, not accelerating. Kill line: A weekly close below $72 undercuts the post-merger digestion floor and the June breakout retest; secondarily, a 2026-08-06 Q2 print with book-to-bill below 1.5x or orders decelerating YoY, or an FY26 guide cut under the $1.275B revenue / $195M adjusted-EBITDA floor. --- ### CERS — Cerus Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CERS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Profitability inflection intact — 9th straight positive adjusted-EBITDA quarter (+$3.0M) and a $30M term-loan paydown at the 2026-07-30 Q2 print — but product growth halved to +10% YoY from +24% in Q1 and gross margin fell to 51.4% from 55.2%. The beat-and-raise was sold; the next binary (RedeS Phase 3 red-cell top-line) is Q4 2026, with nothing dated inside 30 days and price mid-range at $2.98. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.70 breaks the higher-low sequence off the $1.15 low that has carried the entire turnaround leg; secondary: RedeS Phase 3 top-line slipping out of the Q4 2026 window, or an FY26 product-revenue guide cut under $229M at the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. --- ### CEVA — CEVA, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEVA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-25 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-26 Themes: AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Edge-AI IP momentum leg has broken: June's reclaim to within ~3% of the $51.60 high failed, and the mid-July AI-capex scare (Moonshot model) drove shares back through the ~$44 base to the mid-$30s. Sell-side still carries $48–$55 targets, but the tape is rolling over into a binary 2026-08-10 Q2 print — a stand-aside, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 breaks the July support shelf (July-25 low $35.85) and confirms the failed-breakout unwind toward the low-$30s/high-$20s; a secondary flag is the edge-AI/physical-AI licensing theme cooling to dead as the mid-July AI-capex scare keeps semis under distribution and target revisions stall. --- ### CGC — Canopy Growth Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cannabis reclassification, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: The rescheduling binary CGC trades on came and went: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with no verdict, briefs due 2026-08-17 and the ALJ recommendation undated into H2 2026, likely litigated into 2027. Shares closed $0.89 on 2026-07-24, pinned against the $0.84 52-week low. A Canadian LP collects no 280E relief; the event-option is bleeding out. Low conviction. Kill line: A daily close below $0.84 prints a fresh 52-week low and confirms the rescheduling event-option has bled out; secondarily, the ALJ recommendation slipping past the 2026-08-17 brief deadline openly into 2027, or the theme flipping to saturated/dead. --- ### CHYM — Chime Financial, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHYM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Busted-IPO fintech: operations accelerating (Q1 rev +25% to $647M, first GAAP profit, FY guide raised to $2.66–2.69B) but the stock trades ~19% below its $27 IPO and bases near post-IPO lows — a compressed multiple, not an accelerating momentum leg. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary that decides re-rate vs value trap; no price confirmation yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.88 (the post-IPO all-time low) takes the base to fresh lows and confirms the value-trap read; secondarily, an August 5 Q2 print that misses the raised $2.66–2.69B FY guide or shows member growth decelerating below ~15% YoY. --- ### CIEN — Ciena Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CIEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The 1.6T WaveLogic demand cycle is intact at the order book, but the trade has broken: $627.00 (06-02) to ~$370 (07-18) is a ~41% de-rating, and the $455–$467 shelf that framed the prior read is gone. Multiple compression from 54x forward, not a demand miss, is driving it. No entry until a higher low prints; the Q3 report on 2026-09-03 is the next hard reset. Kill line: A weekly close below $355 loses the 2026-07-18 reaction low ($359.01 intraday) and confirms the June–July correction as a full de-rating rather than a shakeout; secondary: the Q3 FY26 print (2026-09-03) guiding Q4 revenue below the $1.575B–$1.675B floor set 2026-06-04, or adjusted gross margin coming in under the ~45% guided level. --- ### CLFD — Clearfield, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLFD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-09 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The May earnings-miss squeeze has fully round-tripped to a dead tape in the mid-$30s, below the ~$36 gap base, with the retail-sentiment narrative spent. The sole live driver is the 2026-08-05 fiscal-Q3 print — guided to a sharp sequential ramp ($42-46M off a $34.4M trough) the tape refuses to pay for ahead of time, into a name with steady insider selling and BEAD revenue slipping to FY2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 confirms the full round-trip of the May squeeze and opens the high-$20s toward the $23.76 annual low; a fiscal-Q3 net-sales print under the $42M guide floor on 2026-08-05, book-to-bill below 1.0, or BEAD deferred past FY2027 hardens the break. --- ### CLMT — Calumet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Solar & clean energy, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Deleveraging-plus-SAF-ramp re-rate extended to a new 52-week high at $50.81 after the 2026-08-07 Q2 print; Goldman's second raise in 19 days ($45 on 2026-08-18) still lands below the 2026-08-21 close of $49.01. Nothing dated resolves the ramp before the ~2026-11-06 Q3 print — an eleven-week catalyst vacuum with price above every published target except the $60 high mark. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the 2026-08-10 post-earnings gap advance and returns price under Goldman's 2026-08-18 $45 target; secondary breaks: the winter reactor swap slipping past 2026-12-31, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-06 est.) with SAF run-rate short of the 80–100 MMgy year-end path. --- ### CLPT — ClearPoint Neuro, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLPT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Picks-and-shovels delivery play on CNS gene therapy: ClearPoint's SmartFlow cannula and MRI navigation are the standard route to the brain for uniQure's AMT-130 Huntington's BLA (soft Q3-2026 window). The June re-rate held near $18.72 (7/02) but the theme has cooled to maturing, with no dated catalyst inside 30 days except the ~mid-August Q2 print. A base-watch, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 loses the post-catalyst breakout shelf (6/18 gap close $16.81) and unwinds the June re-rate; secondary breaks: the AMT-130 Huntington's BLA slips the Q3-2026 window or draws an FDA refuse-to-file, or FY2026 revenue guide is cut below the $52M floor. --- ### CLS — Celestica, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI-datacenter EMS picks-and-shovels story still fundamentally climbing after the 2026-04-27 Q1 crush (rev +53% to $4.05B, FY26 guide raised to $19B), but the tape broke ~21% off its $474 June high and heads into a binary 2026-07-27 Q2 print where consensus EPS $2.10 sits below the company's own $2.14–$2.34 guide — an in-line number disappoints. The clean read is the post-print reaction, not a pre-print grab. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 loses the pre-May breakout base and turns the June correction into a completed top; reinforced by a 2026-07-27 Q2 print with CCS YoY growth under ~50%, CCS margin below the 8.6% Q1 mark, any cut to the $19B FY2026 / $10.15 EPS guide, or a hyperscaler trimming 2026 capex. --- ### CLYM — Climb Bio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLYM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Anti-CD19 autoimmune re-rate: budoprutug's 2026-06-11 EHA ITP data (>90% B-cell depletion, n=15) plus $239.2M cash funding into 2H 2028 lifted CLYM to a 52-week high at $16.33 on 2026-08-14. The 2026-09-03 R&D Spotlight (CLYM116 Phase 1 healthy-volunteer data) is the near binary; the real resolution is four Q4 2026 readouts. Kill line: A daily close below $13.30 gives back the June–July shelf (the $13.36 option strike filed 2026-06-29 marks it) and the pre-Q2-print range; secondarily, the 2026-09-03 R&D Spotlight passing without CLYM116 Phase 1 data supporting the guided Q3 2026 Phase 2 IgAN dosing start. --- ### CMBT — CMB.TECH NV URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: July's non-confirmation resolved upward: CMBT closed 2026-08-14 at $17.24, a 52-week high on the adjusted series, RSI 79.4, into a confirmed 2026-08-27 Q2 print whose rates were pre-disclosed on 2026-05-19 (81% of VLCC days at $182,731/day). The new high arrived on disposal-gain headlines while the ~35% VLCC orderbook delivers through 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.70 puts price back inside the $14.93–$15.74 July range and negates the August breakout to the 2026-08-14 high of $17.24; secondary, the 2026-08-27 Q2 print passing with no ability to hold above $17.24 in the sessions after it. --- ### CNMD — CONMED Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Six weeks on, the deal leg is still the only unresolved one: no process headline since 2026-07-10, no sell-side action since 2026-07-30, no company event dated inside 30 days — yet price drifted to $51.07 on 2026-08-21, 10.9% above the $45.50 consensus average. Nothing arrives to price it until the review speaks or the ~late-October Q3 print lands. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 surrenders the August shelf (closes of $49.12 on 2026-08-07 and $49.58 on 2026-08-11) and puts price back inside the published target stack; secondarily, an 8-K concluding the strategic review with no sale, or the ~2026-10-28 Q3 call passing with no dated process update. --- ### CNTA — Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNTA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Closed cash-plus-CVR takeout; nothing trades. Lilly's scheme ($38.00 cash plus a non-transferable CVR of up to $9.00) went effective 2026-06-24, Form 15-12G dated 2026-07-06. New since the last note: ClinicalTrials.gov lists a Phase 2/Phase 3 cleminorexton study (NCT07598708) recruiting since 2026-05-29 versus Lilly's Phase 2a language on 2026-08-05 — CVR-relevant, unexpressible in this symbol. --- ### COCO — The Vita Coco Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Q2 FY26 (2026-07-23) beat on every line — net sales $216.2M +28.1%, EPS $0.82 vs ~$0.55, FY guide raised to $790–805M — and the stock still closed $62.25 on 2026-08-07, -25.9% from the post-print high. Beat-and-raise absorbed by sellers; no dated catalyst until an unannounced Q3 print, and the ~$60 April gap shelf is the last structure standing. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 fills the late-April Q1 breakaway-gap shelf and retraces the entire post-Q1 re-rate. Secondary: a Q3 FY26 print with gross margin at or under the ~40% FY guide once the ~700bps tariff-refund benefit is out. --- ### COMP — Compass, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-05 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-28 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Now stretched into a binary ~2026-07-29 Q2 print ($4.0–4.2B guide) with an open NY AG antitrust probe. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 loses the luxury-demand breakout above the June AG-dip shelf and reopens the ~$9.78 June low; a formal NY AG divestiture/CID demand or a Q2 revenue miss versus the $4.0–4.2B guide is the secondary break. --- ### CORT — Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CORT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-12-17 Thesis: Lifyorli oncology launch (approved 2026-03-25, NCCN preferred) re-accelerated the tape to fresh 52-week highs near $92, and the 2026-06-17 Cushing's relacorilant resubmission (~Dec PDUFA) adds second-approval optionality. But a fresh entry is +56% above the 50-day into an ~2026-08-05 Q2 print the run already front-ran — a probe or pullback buy at 228x, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 loses the late-June breakout shelf and rising 20-EMA that define this leg; a refuse-to-file or second CRL on the 2026-06-17 Cushing's resubmission, or a Q2 revenue miss around 2026-08-05, confirms the break. --- ### COTY — COTY INC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COTY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: De-lever leg stalled rather than broke: FY26 net debt fell to $2,912.1M but leverage still printed 3.4x as EBITDA fell 22% to $846.9M, and management withheld FY27 guidance until the Consumer Beauty review closes by end-CY26. RBC cut to Sector Perform/$3 on 2026-08-20. Price holds above the reclaimed 50/200-day but the catalyst has passed with nothing resolved. Kill line: A daily close below $2.35 gives back the July reclaim of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages measured at $2.32 and $2.37 on 2026-08-12, with a weekly close under $1.82 confirming a retest of the 2026-06-29 all-time low; secondarily, the Consumer Beauty review reaching its end-CY26 deadline with no announced transaction removes the de-lever leg. --- ### CPIX — Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CPIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-14 Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Deal-arb thesis is now spent: the $100M Apotex asset sale closed 2026-07-01 after a 99.84% shareholder vote on 2026-06-24, so the dated binary that drove the ~3.2x off $1.85 to a $7.36 high is consumed. What remains is a cash-rich clinical shell (~$100M cash vs ~$89M cap) with undated ifetroban Phase 2 readouts — a net-cash value story, not accelerating momentum — and ~49K sh/day makes it un-buildable at size. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 loses the post-deal base and prior breakout shelf, confirming the re-rate is unwinding toward the pre-announcement zone; secondarily, a use-of-proceeds decision that channels the ~$100M into trial burn with no return of capital. --- ### CRCT — Cricut, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Bitcoin miners, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Hardware-to-platform crossover still holding the 2026-08-05 gap: Platform revenue $85.0M now exceeds Products $71.3M, but the Q2 margin fuel was $26.7M of one-time credits and the CEO sold ~360k shares between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-19. Flow has moderated — no fresh headline since 2026-08-06, last close $5.59 against a 3-analyst average target of $4.07. Kill line: A daily close below $5.16, the low of the 2026-08-05 post-print gap session; secondarily, the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing gross margin back near the 58.9% ex-item level with Products revenue down double digits again. --- ### CRL — Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Post-2026-08-05 demand-recovery leg extended to a new 52wk high at the 2026-08-21 close of $295.19 (RSI 86.6, +84.1% over three months) with no rating action since TD Cowen's $300 on 08-10 — price is now inside the $282-$310 target band. The newly dated 2026-09-24 Investor Day, where long-term financial targets get reset, is the next test. Kill line: A weekly close below $263 unwinds the entire post-2026-08-05 print advance (the first post-print insider disposition printed at $263.00 on 08-05); secondary, the 2026-09-24 Investor Day passing without a raised long-term financial target framework, or Q3 DSA net bookings below $701M sequentially. --- ### CRNX — Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Not a narrative any more: the Vertex $85.00/share cash takeout cleared HSR on 2026-08-12, the stockholder vote is 2026-08-28, and closing is guided to early September. At the 2026-08-14 close of $84.70 the gap to terms is $0.30 against roughly $42 of downside on a break — a three-week deal calendar, not a momentum leg. Kill line: A daily close below $82 — a discount to fixed $85.00 cash terms far wider than a cleared deal three weeks from a guided early-September close justifies. Secondary: the 2026-08-28 special meeting failing to adopt the merger, or the Australian waiting period extending past 2026-08-27. --- ### CROX — Crocs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CROX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Legacy-brand turnaround with fundamentals intact and the tape unwinding: after the 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise (FY2026 adj EPS $13.70–$14.00), shares fell from $131.72 on 2026-08-14 to $122.11 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) 32.9, -13.5% from the $141.19 high. Narrative maturing; nothing company-scheduled resolves before the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $112 forfeits the June 2026 breakout shelf and round-trips the recovery leg; secondary: Crocs Brand North America back below zero YoY or consolidated revenue under the flat Q3 guide at the ~2026-10-29 print, or a disclosed IRS reserve against the Malta IP structure. --- ### CRS — Carpenter Technology Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-12 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Aero-defense superalloy pricing cycle intact (three contracts at >30% hikes; Q4 op-income guide $205-210M, +37% YoY), but the July flush to $532 has been bought back to ~$603 straight into the 2026-07-30 Q4 print — now four sessions out and binary. JPMorgan flagged a Negative Catalyst Watch and the sell-side is fully caught up; stretched into the top of the range. Kill line: A weekly close below $532 loses the mid-July flush low and the recovery structure, ending the momentum leg (below the ~$505 June breakout shelf kills the cycle base); a secondary break is the 2026-07-30 print showing SAO adjusted operating margin rolling over from the record 35.6%, or JPMorgan's Negative Catalyst Watch converting to an outright downgrade. --- ### CRSR — Corsair Gaming, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRSR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI chips & memory, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Post-print margin leg has lost its price structure: after a 2026-08-07 close of $14.35 (52-wk high), CRSR closed 2026-08-21 at $10.93, -23.8%, and Goldman initiated at Sell with an $11 target on 2026-08-19 over AI-driven DRAM cost competition. No company catalyst until the ~November Q3 print — gamescom (Aug 26–30) is flow, not fundamentals. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.75 leaves only B. Riley's $9 target beneath the market and marks the post-print advance as failed rather than digested; secondary confirmation is Components & Systems gross margin printing below the 26.3% posted in Q2 at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 report. --- ### CRTO — Criteo S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRTO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Thesis: Takeover-premium leg is dead and the tape kept going: the 2026-07-06 Vista/Quinti gap is fully filled, no party has confirmed anything in 46 days, and the 2026-08-05 guide cut re-based FY26 contribution ex-TAC to $1.034–1.058B from $1.175–1.198B. What is left is an ad-tech declining 10–12% at constant currency with $252M cash and no dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $16.10 — the shelf the shares broke to on the 2026-08-05 guidance cut — shows neither the repurchase nor residual deal optionality is holding a floor; secondary, the Vista/Quinti approach passing the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print with still no board or bidder statement. --- ### CRVS — Corvus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRVS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Calendar still empty until 2027 after the 2026-08-06 push-out (PTCL futility Q1 2027, no data released; SIERRA1 topline Q3 2027), but the tape has recovered: $14.46 close on 2026-08-21 with RSI 62.4 versus $13.92 and RSI 47.5 on 2026-08-07, and four analyst reiterations 08-07 to 08-11 left consensus at $33.14. Price grinding higher on flow, not news. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 breaks the June–August recovery shelf and re-opens the May trough near $10; secondarily, the Angel cohort-1 atopic dermatitis readout slipping past 2026 year-end, or the ~November Q3 update moving the Q1 2027 PTCL futility date again, leaves no dated clinical event before 2027. --- ### CRWD — CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The August breakout leg has been given back: price closed 2026-08-21 at $191.95, 14.9% under the $225.53 52-week high, while eleven brokers set targets between $205 and $250 in the same five sessions. The binary was pulled forward — Q2 FY2027 lands after the close on 2026-08-26, before Fal.Con — and the CTO exited on 2026-08-20 with no successor named. Kill line: A weekly close below $185 removes the entire August range and settles the reversal from $225.53 toward distribution; secondary, the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print passing with net-new ARR below the prior quarter's and the $4.88–$4.96 FY2027 adjusted-EPS guide merely reiterated. --- ### CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-26 Themes: AI enterprise software, Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Legacy-networker AI re-rate intact and now at its binary: the $118–120 shelf held through July, price closed $121.43 on 2026-08-07 with RSI(14) at 78.4, and five sell-side target raises landed 07-22 → 08-06 (Citi $112→$139) ahead of the Q4 FY26 print on 2026-08-12 after the close. The unresolved number is the FY27 AI-revenue guide against the ≥$6B indication. Kill line: A weekly close below $117 (loses the $118–120 post-earnings breakout shelf and fully retraces the 2026-05-13 gap leg), or a 2026-08-12 FY27 AI-revenue guide beneath the ≥$6B indication / a cut to the $9B FY26 AI-infrastructure order guide. --- ### CSIQ — Canadian Solar Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSIQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Solar & clean energy, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Reshoring leg still bidless: the 2026-08-18 dismissal with prejudice of Maxeon's US TOPCon suit and the 2026-08-12 Carwarp COD followed the 2026-07-24 cell-plant opening, and the 2026-08-21 close of $14.55 broke under the 2026-07-08 low of $14.75. The 2026-08-27 Q2 print, guided to 13–15% gross margin vs 25.1% in Q1, is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.00 confirms the loss of the summer shelf off the 2026-07-08 low of $14.75 and opens the multi-year $9–10 floor; secondary condition is Q2 gross margin printing under the 13–15% guide on 2026-08-27, or Q3 guidance set below the Q2 range, with no quantified per-watt 2027 45X benefit. --- ### CTRN — Citi Trends, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Sales were pre-released on 2026-08-10 ($211.6M, comps +10.5%), so the 2026-08-25 print is now a pure margin-and-guidance binary. Price faded from $73.91 (08-14) to $71.71 (08-21) with RSI back to 55.6 and no new high above $76.18 — the beat was absorbed, not extended, and the shares sit at the $73.00 consensus target. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 forfeits the August range floor (intraday low $67.63) and leaves only the $62.41 50-day and the 2026-06-18 close of $60.66 beneath it; secondary break is a 2026-08-25 print that reaffirms FY2026 comps +8-10% and Adjusted EBITDA $35-40M unchanged against first-half comps of +12.2%. --- ### CTSH — Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy IT-services franchise being re-underwritten as an enterprise-AI deployment partner; the leg still works — $61.87 on 2026-08-21, up 18.0% over three months — but the sell-side revision wave ended 2026-07-30, price now sits ~3% under the $63.94 29-analyst mean target with RSI 75.3, and nothing resolves until the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $56 gives back the entire August extension and returns price beneath the 2026-08-07 close of $57.67; secondarily, the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print landing revenue under the guided $5.600B floor, or a second FY26 revenue-guide cut. --- ### CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVLG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Freight & logistics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The margin-inflection leg broke at its own catalyst: Q2 (2026-07-29) adjusted OR 95.9% vs 94.6% PY — second straight quarter of YoY deterioration — revenue $332.9M missed $340.4M, and Stephens cut its 23-day-old target to $54 on 07-31. Price has round-tripped the entire re-rating (-30.5% from $49.88), RSI(14) 12.6, with no company catalyst before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 completes the round-trip of the 2026 advance and loses the spring consolidation, leaving the $18 base as the next reference; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-28 est.) with adjusted operating ratio again above 94.6% year-over-year, or a second sell-side target cut below $54. --- ### CXT — Crane NXT, Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CXT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-05 has been fully sold: the ~$56.23 post-print quote gave way to a $50.20 close on 2026-08-21, RSI 39.3, and 2026-08-19 opened $48.06 with no company release behind it. Organic growth was only 2.8% of the 22% headline, so the roll-up is buying the growth. The $47 washout shelf is the remaining structure and nothing resolves before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 loses the 2026-06-29 Russell-reconstitution washout shelf that the 2026-08-19 $48.06 open held, ending the dislocation-recovery frame; secondary, Q3 (est. late October) organic growth under the Q2 2.8% with DTT operating margin under 16.5%. --- ### DDD — 3D Systems Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Defense & aerospace, Critical materials & rare earths, Cyclical industrials Thesis: June's $50M raise at $3.05 (16.4M sh) is already underwater: shares last $2.775 (2026-07-02), below the offering floor, with ~$50M shelf undrawn and soft Q2 guidance (rev $93–95M, adj. EBITDA still negative) into the 2026-08-10 print. A post-dilution downtrend with no theme acceleration — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.50 confirms no base is forming and the offering overhang has fully won, extending the post-dilution downtrend; only a high-volume reclaim of $3.05 (back above the offering) and then $5 (Cantor PT), with the shelf exhausted, flips the read constructive. --- ### DDOG — Datadog, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI enterprise software, GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: June's sell-side upgrade wave has exhausted and the first cut printed — Bernstein to Market Perform (PT $226, 2026-07-06) as the stock rolled over. AI-observability narrative intact but maturing; the $278.71 parabola round-tripped and the recovery is stalling below the high into the 2026-08-06 Q2 binary. The base has not formed, so there is nothing here to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $234 breaks the June higher-low and confirms the failed-parabola round trip (stalling recovery resolves down); a subsequent Q2 (2026-08-06) guide cut below ~29% YoY revenue growth would compound the de-rate. --- ### DFTX — Definium Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DFTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Voyage GAD read out positive on 2026-08-12 — HAM-A 5.4 points over placebo at Week 12, p<0.0001, Cohen's d 0.81 — and eight target actions followed inside seven sessions. Yet the 2026-08-21 close of $44.91 sits under the pre-readout $46.14 and 7.3% below the untouched $48.45 high. The binary paid and the bid didn't; Panorama in September is only confirmatory, and no NDA date exists. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 hands back the entire post-Voyage leg and loses the 2026-06-23 gap-day print at $38.24; a September Panorama topline that misses its primary, or September passing with no data and still no NDA submission date, would confirm the break. --- ### DIOD — Diodes Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DIOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The AI-server/auto power-content re-rate that carried DIOD to a ~$126 all-time high (June 18) has round-tripped: a double-top, an analyst downgrade, more insider selling and a sector-wide semi selloff pushed it to ~$96 by July 10, through the $100 breakout base. Fundamentals intact (raised Q2 guide $435M), but the momentum leg is broken; next read is the ~Aug 6 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $91 (the July range low) confirms the full round-trip of the AI-server re-rate and opens the $75–80 pre-breakout gap. Secondary: the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print landing under the $435M revenue guide, or in-line paired with a soft Q3 guide-down. --- ### DJT — Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DJT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI enterprise software Thesis: Fusion pivot is the leg: the 2025-12-18 all-stock TAE Technologies merger (>$6B, ~50/50 fully diluted) is what's actually being bought, while the crypto-treasury leg was terminated 2026-08-07. The S-4 was still unfiled as of 2026-08-05, and the first earnings call in company history on 2026-08-10 is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 gives back the July–August recovery leg (early-July trade referenced at $8.875 on 2026-07-06); secondary, the 2026-08-10 print passing with no dated TAE S-4 timeline and no disclosed Truth API revenue line. --- ### DLTR — Dollar Tree Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DLTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Guide-raise leg resolves in four sessions: the 2026-08-27 Q2 print (8:00 a.m. ET call, Dollar General the same morning) is the binary. At the 2026-08-21 close of $131.48 the stock trades above both aggregated mean targets ($127.32 / $123.41) and 6.9% under the $141.21 high, and the last two rating moves were bears marking targets up Kill line: A weekly close below $124 gives back the entire Jul 6–8 upgrade-cluster advance (2026-07-03 close $124.05) and returns the name to the $118 gap base; secondarily, an FY26 adjusted-EPS range left unchanged at $6.70–$7.10, or comps under the +2.5% guided floor, at the 2026-08-27 Q2 print. --- ### DNUT — Krispy Kreme, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNUT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-13 Thesis: Attention returned before the fundamentals changed: BofA lifted its target to $4.90 on 2026-08-10 and the Pokémon collection hit shops 2026-08-18, carrying the close from $3.33 (08-14) to $3.59 (08-21) with RSI(14) at 69.9. The 5.4x-leverage asset-light case is intact but unscheduled — the promo window ends 2026-09-13 and nothing company-dated lands before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.25 returns price inside the pre-2026-08-06 range and marks the August promotional bid as spent; secondarily, 2026-09-13 passing with no follow-on promotion or franchising headline, or any cut to the $140–150M FY Adjusted EBITDA guide. --- ### DOCN — DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, AI chips & memory Thesis: The $117 condition from the 2026-08-08 note broke: the 2026-08-21 weekly close is $115.64, under the $117.54 July placement price, with the 200-day at $113.47 just below. Kill line: A weekly close below $113 forfeits the 200-day moving average, the last structural reference after the $117.54 July placement price gave way on the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $115.64; secondarily, a Q3 guide in early November implying sub-30% Q4 2026 growth, or a new 424B5 or convertible filed before that print. --- ### DOCU — DocuSign, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Legacy e-signature base re-wrapped as AI agreement management: IAM went 10.8%→12.6% of ARR in a quarter and is guided to ~18% by 2027-01-31, while total growth is still guided to decelerate to ~8%. The 2026-09-03 Q2 print is now confirmed and is the binary; at $62.00 the stock trades above the $59.33 22-analyst average target. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 returns price into the $50–$54 band where post-Q1 targets were reset on 2026-06-05 and erases the summer advance; secondarily, a Q2 FY27 print on 2026-09-03 that leaves IAM near the 12.6%-of-ARR level or trims FY27 ARR growth below the 8.25% floor. --- ### DRD — DRDGOLD Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Unhedged tailings-retreatment gold leverage: FY2026 (reported 2026-08-19) beat guidance at 155,577 oz with R2.3bn free cash flow, zero debt, and Vision 2028 guiding toward six tonnes by 2028. But the catalyst already fired — the ADR closed $30.70 on 2026-08-21 at RSI(14) 91.0, still 21.1% below the $38.89 52-week high, with only the 2026-09-08 cum-dividend date ahead. Kill line: A weekly close below $27.50 gives back the August advance built on the 2026-08-19 FY2026 print; secondary, the 2026-09-08 cum-dividend date and 2026-09-14 payment passing with the ADR unable to close back above $33 leaves no dated catalyst until the Q1 FY2027 operating update. --- ### DSGN — Design Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DSGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: A new 52-week high of $15.94 printed in August with no company release since the 2026-08-03 Q2 update, which pushed the next hard data to Q1 2027. RSI(14) 73.9 at the $14.99 close (2026-08-21) and +21.9% for the month, into a 30-day calendar with no company-dated event; the Q4-2026 registrational-plans update is the next real checkpoint. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.50 gives back the entire August advance and returns the name to the post-2026-05-18 range; secondarily, the Q4-2026 registrational-plans update arriving without a defined endpoint framework, cohort design or filing path for DT-216P2. --- ### DUOT — Duos Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DUOT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: The pivot is now structural: the rail subsidiary was sold 2026-08-05 (related party — interim CFO owns 50% of the buyer), leaving an edge-colocation operator carrying a 2026-07-16 five-year 10 MW hyperscaler contract worth >$111M. The tape has not confirmed it — the 2026-08-07 close of $9.24 sits under the June-17 $9.50 secondary price into a binary ~2026-08-13 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 — a decisive loss of the $9.50 June-17 registered-direct price with no reclaim — and, as a secondary condition, a ~2026-08-13 Q2 print that drops the "billing by end of August" Columbus language or cuts the >$50M FY2026 revenue target. --- ### DVA — DaVita Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: The $175 weekly-close level from the prior note broke: DVA closed 2026-08-21 at $173.82, 27.9% under the $240.96 high, RSI(14) 10.9, with no company news or filing since the 2026-08-04 Q2 print. The census-recovery re-rate is dead; sell-side marks near $215 still sit well above spot, and nothing is scheduled inside 30 days to resolve the H2 revenue-per-treatment question. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 takes DVA under the lowest published 12-month target in the 2026-08-20 aggregated range and confirms a de-rating on the H2 revenue-per-treatment guide rather than a print-reaction overshoot; secondary: FY26 adjusted EPS revised below the $14.10 low end at the Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.). --- ### DXC — DXC Technology Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, AI enterprise software, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Legacy IT-services decliner re-rated on an AI-centric pivot, now digesting: the partnership headline run stopped 2026-08-06, Paul Taylor's presidency took effect 2026-08-10, and price went flat ($10.84 on 08-07 to $10.80 on 08-21) while RSI(14) unwound 68.9 to 46.9. Attention has moderated with no dated catalyst inside 30 days; the guided ~$0.55 Q2 quarter does not even close until 2026-09-30. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.00 gives back the post-2026-07-30 advance and returns price to the range that produced the 29.7% drawdown from $15.43; secondary, FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.40–$2.90 being narrowed toward or cut below its $2.40 floor at the Q2 print (~2026-10-29, est.). --- ### DXCM — DexCom, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXCM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: CGM leader's recovery has aged from catalyst-pop to an analyst-revision grind — Mizuho $90 (7/15), Truist $87 (7/16) into a ~7% two-day pop to $76.65 — but price is high-$70s still under the 200-EMA and the confirmed July 30 Q2 print is the binary; buying here chases extension into earnings risk. Kill line: a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the recovery-base shelf and round number; secondarily, a Q2 miss or guide-down on the July 30 print, an Abbott Libre price/share headline, or the Medtech & diagnostics theme flipping to saturated would confirm the break. --- ### DXYZ — Destiny Tech100 Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXYZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-29 Thesis: Scarcity premium re-underwritten on Anthropic, not SpaceX: DXYZ ran $22.51 (2026-07-28) to $34.43 (2026-08-21), back above the last reported $24.56 NAV (2026-03-31), on Anthropic's June S-1 and $65B July run rate. RSI 89.6, the $1B ATM is economic again above NAV, and the June-30 mark still has not printed. Kill line: A daily close below $29.50 gives back the entire August leg above the 2026-08-11 level near $29.65 and returns price to the $22.50–$25.89 July range; secondarily, a 2026-06-30 NAV reported under $24.56, or a share count above 30.47M showing the Jefferies ATM restarted into strength. --- ### EDRY — EuroDry Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EDRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Freight & logistics Thesis: Dry-bulk operating leverage ran ahead of its own driver: EDRY closed at a 52-week high $46.85 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) 91.2, while the BDI sat at 2,841 versus 3,046 on 2026-08-11 and Panamax spot earnings of $18,790/day (2026-08-20) fell below the $20,398/day realized in Q2. No company-dated event until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 gives back the entire post-2026-08-19 leg and returns price beneath the $38.64 shelf that capped it through mid-August; secondary condition, Baltic Panamax daily earnings holding under the $20,398/day Q2 TCE into the Q3 print. --- ### EFOR — Everforth, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EFOR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Legacy IT-services base re-rating on an AI-delivery pivot. Since the 2026-07-30 print-day +16.3%, the move has digested rather than reversed: RSI(14) unwound from 94.5 (2026-08-07) to 66.9 at the 2026-08-21 close of $32.70 with price flat. A $30M DHA award on 2026-08-11 extended the federal AI cadence, but consensus sits at $27.50 and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $28.50 hands back the 2026-07-30 print-day advance and puts the $27.50 consensus anchor in play; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-21, est.) with revenue under the $994.0M guide floor or Commercial book-to-bill below 1.0 to 1. --- ### ELVR — Elevra Lithium Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Lithium-recovery narrative re-accelerating off a low base: GFEX carbonate turned (LC2609 CNY 146,360/t on 2026-08-10, +6.24% in six sessions) and on 2026-08-21 Elevra signed a binding 7-year, 144,000 dmt/yr take-or-pay offtake with Mangrove Lithium carrying a floor above NAL's cost of production. The 2026-08-28 FY26 report with first FY27 guidance is the binary, and RSI(14) 79.7 means it is met extended. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 gives back the entire August advance and re-establishes the downtrend the 2026-08-07 non-confirmation interrupted; secondary break is the 2026-08-28 FY26 report landing with FY27 spodumene guidance below FY26's ~197,968 dmt, or the C$366M NAL expansion deferred rather than sanctioned. --- ### EMBC — Embecta Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EMBC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-collapse levered stub has now run past its own sell-side: the 2026-08-21 close of $5.23 sits above the highest of four published 12-month targets ($5.00), short interest rose to 12.20% of float from 10.99% on 2026-08-11, and the 2026-08-07 Q3 beat remains the last company datapoint until the ~November Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 gives back the entire post-print continuation (the 2026-08-07 gap session closed at $4.42); secondarily, fiscal Q4 landing FY2026 revenue under the reaffirmed $1.015B floor, or short interest falling from 12.20% of float without the shares making a higher high. --- ### ENOV — Enovis Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-29 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-17 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Post-Colfax orthopedic pure-play turnaround: LimaCorporate integration plus FCF-conversion recovery (43% in 2024 toward a 70–80% target) is the self-help story, but price has rolled over from $34 toward $27 while three brokers cut targets. Not an accelerating narrative — the 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary that decides derating vs. re-rate. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 breaks the multi-month base and opens a retest of the $19.14 52-week low; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts FY organic guidance below 4% removes the self-help margin/FCF thesis. --- ### ENPH — Enphase Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENPH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Thesis: IQ SST AI-data-center pivot (announced 2026-04-28) that drove a spring squeeze has stalled — stock de-rated ~16% in a month to ~$45 (2026-07-09), sell-side uniformly neutral with PTs on top of price (Susquehanna $45, 2026-07-10), and SST volume revenue confirmed for 2028, too far to carry the tape. Management publicly arguing it's "valued wrong" is a late-narrative tell. 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the next binary; not a fresh accelerating entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 loses the post-announcement consolidation shelf and confirms the spring re-rate unwinding toward the pre-April $30s base; a 2026-07-28 Q2 print with revenue under the ~$280M guide low once the ~$85M safe-harbor pull-forward is stripped seals the de-rate. --- ### EPAM — EPAM SYSTEMS, INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Compounder narrative broken on 2026-08-06: FY26 organic constant-currency growth cut to 2.0%–3.0%, Q3 guided to ~1.7% YoY. Price has stalled rather than extended lower ($99.90 close 2026-08-11 vs $97.43 on 2026-08-07), but the AI-native replacement ($160M in Q2, >11% of revenue) gets no dated proof until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $92 confirms the post-guidance-cut de-rating leg resumed and puts the $73.06 52-week low back in play; secondarily, a Q3 report around 2026-11-05 guiding Q4 organic constant-currency growth below zero would end the stabilisation case. --- ### EPC — Edgewell Personal Care Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Two legs: a refused $30 take-private approach (2026-06-22) and a first clean quarter (fiscal Q3 organic +1.1%, adjusted EPS $0.72 vs $0.62). Sixty days on there is no competing bid, no process and no 13D, and the shares have coiled within 3.7% of the $29.66 high since 2026-08-14. Nothing dated resolves before the November fiscal Q4 print — the deal leg is maturing, not accelerating. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 hands back the 2026-06-23 bid gap and the entire post-print advance; secondary condition, 2026-09-22 passing with no competing bid, revised proposal, announced review or 13D on file. --- ### EQNR — Equinor ASA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EQNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-24 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $37 loses the breakout shelf and returns price to the sell-side target range; a parallel roll-over in European TTF gas, or the buyback tranche completing without a new high, would confirm the momentum leg is done. --- ### ERAS — Erasca, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Funded pan-RAS story with part of its calendar restored: the 2026-08-11 Q2 release dates ERAS-4001 BOREALIS-1 preliminary Phase 1 data to H2 2026, ahead of the H1 2027 ERAS-0015 cut. But the 2026-08-21 close of $17.63 sits on the $17.50 July deal price while five sell-side target raises cluster at $20–$22, and the RevMed patent claim remains unadjudicated. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 (loses the 2026-06-26 recovery shelf and leaves the $17.50 July offering price overhead); secondarily, the guided H2 2026 ERAS-4001 readout passing 2026-12-31 undelivered, or a RevMed complaint naming ERAS-0015 appearing on a federal docket. --- ### ERO — Ero Copper Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, Critical materials & rare earths, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Copper-squeeze beta finally re-rated: the 2026-08-21 close of $39.42 is a new 52-week high (RSI 78.1, +46.1% over three months) clearing the prior $38.03 high — but it printed in the week the LME squeeze unwound (backwardation above US$545/t to ~US$176/t) and above the $32.33 consensus target, with no company catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $33.80 hands back the entire breakout week that carried price to the 2026-08-21 close of $39.42; secondary, sustained COMEX copper under $6.00/lb against the US$6.49/lb quoted for the week ending 2026-08-21. --- ### ESPR — Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ESPR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Resolved and off the tape. ARCHIMED's take-private closed 2026-07-13 at $3.16 cash plus a non-tradeable CVR of up to $100M; Nasdaq was asked to file Form 25 the same day and reporting duties are being suspended by Form 15. The early-August Q2 window passed with no filing. Last listed close $3.18 on 2026-07-10; only a private milestone tail running to 2030 remains. Kill line: A daily close below $3.16 can no longer print: ESPR was cancelled into cash and the Form 25 delisting request was filed 2026-07-13; final listed close was $3.18 on 2026-07-10. Only a new Nasdaq/NYSE listing of an Esperion equity security restores a gradeable tape. --- ### ESTC — Elastic N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ESTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: AI-retrieval-layer narrative accelerating: Q4 FY26 total RPO $1.98B grew 28% YoY against revenue +16%, and the 2026-07-30 OpenAI partnership re-rated the name 56.8% in three months. The 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print is the binary — company guided $469–470M (+13.1%) and has not yet raised the FY27 $1.985–2.000B range. Kill line: A daily close below $76 (roughly a fifth off the $94.47 52-week high, giving back the advance rather than digesting it); secondarily, the 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print passing with no raise to the FY27 $1.985–$2.000B revenue range and cRPO growth below the 20% posted at Q4 FY26. --- ### EVC — Entravision Communication URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Smadex AI-DSP re-rate broke to a new 52-week high of $13.48 with no dated company news since 2026-07-12 — an anticipatory leg into the 2026-08-10 Q2 print, the binary on whether Q1's +204% ATS growth and ~22% EBIT margin held. TelevisaUnivision expiry (2026-12-31) still unresolved. Kill line: A daily close below $10.12 fails the July breakout above the prior 52-week high and returns price to the June–July range; a 2026-08-10 Q2 print showing ATS growth decelerating from +204% or margin below ~22% would compound the break. --- ### EVH — Evolent Health, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: Managed care & health services, Oncology & immunology Thesis: The late-June retail bounce has fully unwound — EVH traded ~$5.76 on 2026-07-07, back under the $6.59–6.86 consensus target band and well under Truist's flat $7. Nothing carries the name now except the confirmed 2026-08-06 Q2 print, which is a binary on whether oncology medical-cost trend has stabilized. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 loses the June bounce base and confirms the retail leg is fully retraced; secondary break is the 2026-08-06 Q2 print landing without a credible medical-cost-trend stabilization datapoint, which removes the last dated reason to own it. --- ### EXFY — Expensify, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXFY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Legacy expense-SaaS pivot re-rated on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print: revenue $33.9M beat $33.688M, paid-member decline halved to -2% YoY, FY26 FCF guide doubled to $12M-$14M, ~7% of shares retired, and New Expensify ARR from net-new customers topped $10M (+250% YoY). Price is at the 52-week high with RSI 87.6 and no dated catalyst until the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.35 gives back the reclaimed prior 52-week-high shelf and marks the post-print advance as an unheld gap; a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) with revenue again under $33.9M and paid members re-accelerating lower would confirm AI attach is not offsetting legacy churn. --- ### EXTR — Extreme Networks, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Networking & optical, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Legacy campus-networking name re-rating ~+140% off Feb lows on the Platform ONE / Agent ONE AI-NetOps story plus SaaS ARR +29% YoY; theme still accelerating but spot ($33.71, 07-10) has run through consensus PT $29.06 into the June bull band ($33–39), with a binary Q4/FY26 print now inside the window on Aug 5 — fresh-entry edge sits on a 20-EMA pullback or post-print continuation, not a chase at the high. Kill line: A daily close below $30 negates the early-July breakout leg (loses the $30 shelf); a weekly close below $27 loses the June base and rising 20-week EMA. Fundamentally, a Q4 (Aug 5) revenue miss under the $330M guide floor, SaaS ARR growth below ~20% YoY, or a soft FY27 outlook breaks the re-rate. --- ### FAC — Factorial Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Defense & aerospace Thesis: Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name has fully unwound its debut mania — down ~78% from the $25.33 ATH to ~$5.67, breaking clean through the former $9.26 floor into a fresh 52-week low at $4.24. Cantor's $18 target now sits ~217% above the tape, a dislocation not an opportunity. Broken de-SPAC structure bleeding toward its ~August 13 first earnings print; no long until a higher low bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.24 breaks the fresh 52-week low and confirms the de-SPAC bleed extends into the $3s; no long exists until a higher-low base reclaims the $9.26 former-floor shelf on rising volume, or the ~August 13 first print delivers a genuine revenue/commercialization surprise. --- ### FBIN — Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Activist-plus-new-CEO turnaround has stopped accelerating and started digesting: after the +30% run off Garden's $40.6 buy, price has chopped $50–54 for three weeks while sell-side targets climbed past spot (Goldman $61 on 7/10, Barclays $56 on 7/14). The 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether the base resolves up. Kill line: A weekly close below $49 breaks the July consolidation shelf and returns price to the pre-CEO-announcement $44–46 base; a 2026-08-04 Q2 print with sales still down YoY and no margin inflection or Singh strategic framework would confirm the re-rating ran ahead of the numbers. --- ### FBRX — Forte Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Deal-spread endgame: HSR expired 2026-08-18 (SC 14D9/A filed 2026-08-19), leaving only the >50% minimum tender before argenx's $77.00 all-cash offer expires 2026-08-26. The 2026-08-21 close of $76.92 leaves $0.08 of gross gap. Upside is contractually capped; a break reprices toward the implied mid-$50s pre-bid level. Kill line: A daily close below $75 (a ~2.6% spread into a tender expiring 2026-08-26 with HSR already cleared and no financing condition), or the 2026-08-26 expiration passing with an extension announced by 9:00 a.m. ET 2026-08-27 instead of acceptance for payment. --- ### FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FCEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Solar & clean energy Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Street targets re-rated up to the price rather than the reverse: average PT $22.83 across 8 analysts vs the 2026-08-07 close of $20.43, after B. Riley $13→$32 (6/29) and UBS $22→$27 (7/14). The AI-power bid still works (7/30 Microsoft capex pop) but was sold the next session; the ~2026-09-08 Q3 print, consensus -$0.50 on $41.31M against three straight revenue misses, is the next dated test. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 forfeits the post-offering shelf that has held since the 2026-07-07 pricing of 10.71M shares at $21.00; secondary breaks are another equity raise within a quarter of that deal, or the ~2026-09-08 Q3 print missing the $41.31M consensus with no backlog conversion. --- ### FDMT — 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FDMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Wet-AMD one-and-done durability narrative accelerating on the 2026-07-18 PRISM 2-year data (78% injection-burden reduction, 2.7 vs 12.0 projected, n=30) plus a 2026-07-31 Buy initiation at PT $37 and a 2026-08-13 Q2 beat. Price is 5.5% off the 52-week high with RSI(14) 85.7 and nothing scheduled for 30 days; the randomized proof is 4FRONT-1 topline in Q2 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 gives back the July–August impulse built on the 2026-07-18 PRISM 2-year data; secondary, a Q3 2026 that ends with the guided DME Phase 3 initiation unstarted, or a registered equity offering priced into this advance. --- ### FIG — Figma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Design incumbent re-rated as an AI winner (BofA Buy, $30 PT, 7/7) rather than an AI casualty, yet the stock churns below its 100/200-day moving averages with heavy short interest into its first public earnings print on 8/5 — that print, not the tape, resolves the squeeze-versus-fade question. Kill line: A daily close below $21.00 breaks the post-IPO support shelf and confirms the failed 100/200-day moving-average retest; a soft 8/5 print with net dollar retention decelerating out of the ~130% area is the secondary, fundamental invalidation. --- ### FIVN — Five9, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-15 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Legacy-CCaaS AI pivot staged a sharp V-recovery: +29% off the $19.70 June swing low to $25.42, reclaiming the broken $22 shelf on a 2026-06-23 next-gen Voice AI Agents launch and an AI-first leadership overhaul. Now pressing the $26.26 June high into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print that resolves the seat-cannibalization-vs-monetization question. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 forfeits the reclaimed post-Q1 recovery shelf and reopens the June-low retest toward the $19.70 swing low; secondarily, a Q2 print (2026-07-30) showing AI ARR YoY decelerating below 50% with core seat revenue flat-to-negative confirms self-disruption is outrunning monetization. --- ### FLEX — Flex Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI-manufacturing re-acceleration: the 2026-07-09 Cerebras CS-3 production expansion is the first company-specific bid since the S&P-inclusion +6% pop round-tripped to ~$147, refreshing the data-center power/EMS narrative into the ~07-29 Q1 print. That earnings binary is the gate — a fresh customer win into a catalyst vacuum, but sizing is capped by print risk and an unconfirmed higher low. Kill line: A weekly close below $142 loses the post-Q4 breakout shelf and confirms the S&P-inclusion bid has unwound into a trend break, opening the ~$130 gap base. Secondary: CPI/SpinCo growth guided below the +65-75% FY2027 target at the ~07-29 print, or the AI-power theme flipping to saturated. --- ### FLY — Firefly Aerospace Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the 200-day, this is a broken structure in sector-wide liquidation. Aug 11 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $16.00 (the 52-week low) confirms no base is forming and opens an unsupported vacuum beneath. Secondarily, failure to reclaim $22 on volume before the 2026-08-11 Q2 print, or a FY2026 guidance cut from $420–450M at that print, keeps the structure uninvestable. --- ### FN — Fabrinet URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Optical cluster re-accelerated in July (AAOI +390% YTD, LITE +138%, COHR +107%) while Fabrinet sits ~$478, +0.7% YTD and ~36% under its $748.89 high. Revenue compounds at +30% but the tape has decoupled from its own theme — a relative-strength failure into the binary 2026-08-24 fiscal-Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $450 confirms the July oversold bounce failed and the de-rate is structural; secondarily, the 2026-08-24 fiscal-Q4 print landing under the $1.25B guide floor with datacom down a second straight sequential quarter, which would break the supply-unlock thesis outright. --- ### FOUR — Shift4 Payments, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOUR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-29 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Payments roll-up at ~$50, a hair above its $46.26 52-week low set on a 2026 guide-down. The Global Blue tax-free-shopping integration ("Shift4 One," launched 2026-07-14) is the transformation leg, but the 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — proof of volume re-acceleration or a second disappointment. Rolled-over structure, so a knife-catch, not a momentum long, until it reclaims level. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 takes out the $46.26 52-week low and confirms trend continuation toward the $40 low target; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that guides volume or gross-revenue lower again compounds the value-trap read. --- ### FPS — Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-30 Thesis: Second secondary in five weeks — ~43.6M shares at $49 on July 2, now including company primary dilution — confirms the recurring-supply pattern and dragged the stock from its $65.56 June-4 ATH back to the offering line. The industrial-power-for-AI theme is still accelerating, but dilution not narrative sets the near-term tape; needs to clear the paper and base above $49 before a new leg is trustworthy. Kill line: A weekly close below $49 says the July-2 offering price is not holding as a floor the way $47 did in June, leaving the stock in dilution-driven dead money and exposing the $47 May level; a third capital raise, or an August FY26 guide cut below the $1.35B floor, would confirm the structural break. --- ### FRD — Friedman Industries Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Tariff-driven HRC steel prices at multi-year highs powered record FY2026 (EPS $2.76, sales +46%); FRD hit an all-time-high close $37.42 on 2026-06-18 and was flagged overbought the same day. The narrative is maturing and priced near the highs — HRC futures already rolling from their 2026-06-26 peak — with an early-August Q1 print as the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the pre-June-breakout shelf and ends the tariff-cycle momentum leg; a secondary break is CME HRC futures losing $1,050/ton or a Nucor spot-price cut ahead of the ~2026-08-06 Q1 print. --- ### FTRE — Fortrea Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Post-spin margin-repair narrative is now fully written into sell-side models and no longer into the tape: five target raises through 2026-08-04 (TD Cowen $23) met a slide from $19.17 (7/31) to $17.41 (8/14), surrendering the July $17.73–$18.49 shelf. CFO seat is held by a director after a 2026-07-25 court order, and no company catalyst falls before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 forfeits the pre-earnings base and the 50-day last observed at $16.68; secondary breaks: trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill slipping under 1.0x from 1.12x, or the $205M FY26 adjusted-EBITDA floor being cut at the ~early-November Q3 print. --- ### FWRD — Forward Air Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FWRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Freight & logistics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Busted-merger workout losing its bid: the +48% June bounce to $14.87 (on a speculative Amazon-bolt-on thesis) has faded ~13% to ~$13, whole-company sale is now reported "unlikely," and the 2026-07-10 chairman exit forfeited strategic-review-tied equity. Only live catalyst is the Omni/Intermodal asset-sale 8-K flow; a break of the June base reopens the ~$10 low. Kill line: A daily close below $12 forfeits the June recovery base and reopens the ~$10 low; confirmed if the Omni divestitures slip past the ~60–90 day guide into September with no closing 8-K while the whole-company-sale story stays a report rather than a disclosed process. --- ### G — Genpact Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/G/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Agentic-operations pivot keeps compounding in the segment data — ATS +24.1% to $363M, FY guide lifted to at least 25% on 2026-08-06 — while the 73% legacy book grew 1.9% and caps consolidated growth near 7%. The 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 empties the near calendar: no company-specific repricing event until the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.), with the last cited close $34.29, 28.5% under the 52-week high. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 breaks the shelf built around the 2026-08-06 Q2 release and gives back the advance off the 2026-06-18 low of $28.77; confirmed fundamentally if Core Business Services prints an outright YoY decline at the Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.) with ATS growth under 20%. --- ### GBTG — Global Business Travel Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GBTG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Take-private in its final leg: stockholders adopted the $9.50 Long Lake merger on 2026-08-03, and the 2026-08-14 close of $9.46 leaves $0.04 gross against a roughly 37% break tail to the unaffected $5.93. Only undated offshore regulatory clearances remain, against a 2026-11-02 outside date. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 (a >5% discount to the $9.50 cash terms, giving up the post-2026-05-04 deal shelf). Secondarily, an Item 1.02 8-K terminating the merger, an 8-K disclosing an in-depth EU/UK review, or the outside date extended to 2027-02-02 with no articulated clearance path. --- ### GCMG — GCM Grosvenor Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCMG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-08 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Crypto exchanges & financials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Alternatives-manager re-rate stalled — GCMG printed a new $14.38 high on the 2026-07-13 Piper upgrade, then reversed ~15% to a $12.20 close into the 2026-08-06 Q2 binary. The AI-datacenter infra/private-credit fundraising thesis is intact (2026-07-23 $1.2B credit-secondaries close), but reported Q1 FRE was flat YoY and the failed breakout leaves no clean long into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 confirms the failed breakout off the $14.38 high and cedes the lower half of the 52-week range toward the $9.30–$10 base; secondarily, a 2026-08-06 Q2 print with flat-to-down reported FRE and decelerating fundraising validates the adjusted-only-growth read. --- ### GCO — Genesco Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: The operating turnaround is real but priced, and its one asymmetric leg — the activist proxy fight — lost its teeth: ISS (2026-07-07) backed all nine board directors and urged holders to withhold from the two Radoff/Jumana nominees, so the 2026-07-21 vote is telegraphed to clear with no unlock. Stock round-tripped ~$36→~$33 back to pre-print support; no operating catalyst until back-to-school Q3 (late Aug). A maturing special situation, not a momentum setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 loses the low-$30s pre-print shelf and reopens the earnings gap toward the mid-$20s 52-week base; secondary: the 2026-07-21 vote clears with the nine-member board intact (the ISS-backed base case), removing the last dated catalyst, or Q2 FY27 (late Aug) Journeys comps decelerate below +3%. --- ### GENI — Genius Sports Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GENI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Prediction markets & betting, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Sports-data toll-booth under the prediction-market boom, but the boom arrived and the toll didn't: Kalshi/Polymarket cleared $50B+ of World Cup volume (Coindesk, 2026-07-14) while GENI slid $6.43 → $6.30 and printed $5.98 intraday July 17. Theme accelerating, stock diverging. Aug 5–11 Q2 print is the first place the data revenue must appear in dollars. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.70 breaks the June post-Polymarket base low and confirms the toll-booth thesis is not being paid; secondary break if the Aug 5–11 Q2 print again quantifies no prediction-market data revenue or walks the FY26 $270–280M adj-EBITDA guide. --- ### GFS — GlobalFoundries Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GFS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Photonics/CHIPS delivery kept accelerating — comms/data-center revenue +62% YoY in Q2 (2026-08-05), $300M Commerce LoI 2026-07-29 — while the multiple collapsed 39.2% from the $89.83 52wk high to $54.58 on 2026-08-14. What's on offer is a de-rate with no scheduled catalyst until the ~November print and a controlling holder unrestricted since ~2026-07-26. No base confirmed. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 confirms the mid-$50s offered no shelf and puts price under the entire recent target cluster including UBS's $55 (2026-08-06); a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) cutting full-year comms/data-center growth beneath the guided 50–60% band would seal it. --- ### GGAL — Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GGAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Argentina disinflation is still working — June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on Jul 14, an improvement on May's 2.1% — but the ADR faded the good print, dropping ~7% on the week to ~$50 and losing both the $51.07 50-day and the $52.86 200-day. Macro leg intact, price expression broken; the next gradeable test is the ~Aug 13 July CPI. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 loses the shelf that has held every pullback since the spring recovery and leaves no support until the low-$40s. Secondary breaks: monthly INDEC CPI re-accelerating above 3.0% for two consecutive prints, or a forced peso devaluation / abandonment of the crawling band, either of which gaps the USD ADR regardless of ARS earnings. --- ### GLUE — Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLUE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: ZEUS (ziltivekimab, MACE HR 0.99) failed on 2026-07-31 and took GLUE −27.16% to $16.52, its worst session on record, because the hsCRP-to-outcomes link under MRT-8102's ASCVD story is exactly what ZEUS could not demonstrate. Platform, Novartis economics and $666.2M of Q1 cash survive; the momentum structure does not. The ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the first management response. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 undercuts the 2026-07-31 gap-down session (close $16.52, pre-market low ~$15.90) and prices the ASCVD franchise toward zero; a Q2 call that defers the GFORCE-2 ASCVD start or pushes the expanded GFORCE-1 readout out of 2026 compounds the break. --- ### GOLF — Acushnet Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOLF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-05 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Premium-golf consumable franchise (Titleist Pro V1) that ran to a $119.65 all-time high on a defensive-quality rotation, then bled ~11% of the mania premium back to the ~$104–105 June breakout shelf ($104.66 on 2026-07-24). The 2026-08-06 Q2 print — JPM models revenue +11.8% vs 10.3% consensus — is the binary that decides whether the shelf holds. Maturing and at support, not a fresh fat pitch. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the June breakout shelf and the rising 20-week line and drops the tape below the ~$100.40 consensus target; secondary breaks are the 2026-08-06 Q2 print trimming the reaffirmed $2,625–2,675M / $415–435M FY guide, or the consumer-brands rotation flipping to saturated. --- ### GOOG — Alphabet Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-22) beat — revenue $119.8B +24%, Cloud +82%, backlog $514B — and the stock still fell on capex raised to $195–205B; the ~$370 shelf broke and has not been reclaimed. The leg on offer is Cloud backlog conversion against a tape now paying for free cash flow. No dated company catalyst inside 30 days; the next binary is the Q3 print in late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $328 surrenders the 2026-07-22 post-print reaction zone and marks the August recovery as a lower high; secondary confirmation from Gemini 3.5 Pro passing 2026-09-30 with no general availability, or a rejected retest of the broken ~$370 shelf. --- ### GRPN — Groupon, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GRPN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The prior $20 break condition registered on the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $19.59, the second shelf lost in eight sessions after $22 went on 2026-08-14. RSI(14) at 4.6 with the reported short base UP to 13.73M shares — it built into the drawdown rather than covering. No company catalyst inside 30 days; the next fundamental test is the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 extends the August slide past the mid-July index-inclusion advance and ends the last constructive case (a covering bounce off the RSI(14) 4.6 extreme); secondarily, a FINRA settlement showing shares short still above 13.73M with price under $20 confirms supply rebuilding rather than covering. --- ### GSHD — Goosehead Insurance, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GSHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Post-print re-rating extended on no new information: the 2026-08-21 close of $72.52 is above UBS's $72, above KBW's $72 and above the ~$71 aggregator consensus, while founder-side Class B conversions sell into it. No dated company catalyst until the Q3 print (~2026-10-21 est.) — the narrative is maturing, not fresh. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 gives back the entire August leg and returns price to the post-print shelf around the $66.29 close of 2026-08-14; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-21 est.) that trims the 12–19% FY organic band or shows core revenue growth below the +10% Q2 2026 pace as contingent commissions normalize. --- ### GSM — Ferroglobe PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GSM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-09 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: US trade-remedy leg: the 2026-08-03 USITC affirmative vote forces AD/CVD orders on Australian and Norwegian silicon metal, on top of Angola/Laos orders live since 2026-03-17. Q2 (2026-08-04) delivered the sequential recovery — $13.1M adj EBITDA, $20.4M FCF, net debt $37.7M — but the silicon metal segment still lost $2.7M and no guidance was given. RSI 80.3 with both catalysts printed. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 ends the trade-remedy re-rating leg; secondarily, a Q3 2026 print (~November) that again shows silicon metal segment adjusted EBITDA below zero after −$2.7M in Q2, with forward guidance still withheld. --- ### GTM — ZoomInfo Technologies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Legacy B2B data business trying to re-price as the data layer under AI go-to-market agents. The 2026-08-05 post-print gap is intact but unextended — $3.97 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) cooled 76.9→58.9 — and the 2026-08-11 Microsoft Copilot MCP connector is the first distribution proof-point with no revenue metric attached. Next dated venues: Deutsche Bank tech conference ~08-27, Piper Sandler 09-15. Kill line: A daily close below $3.66 fully retraces the 2026-08-05 post-print gap to the pre-earnings shelf; secondary, the ~2026-08-27 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances both passing with no dated GTM.AI, GTM Studio or consumption-pricing revenue metric. --- ### GTN — Gray Media, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Thesis: August's double catalyst — FCC 2-1 repeal of the 39% ownership cap (2026-08-06) and a Q2 beat-and-raise (2026-08-07) — has stopped extending: the 2026-08-21 close of $4.94 lost the $5.00 handle and sits 18.7% under the $6.07 52-week high. The 2026-08-17 refi swapped a 10.500% coupon for 7.500%, but nothing dated refreshes the story before the ~2026-11-06 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.50 gives back the August FCC-repeal and beat-and-raise repricing (the $5.00 handle already failed on the 2026-08-21 weekly close at $4.94); secondarily, the $6.07 52-week high standing unbroken into the ~2026-11-06 (est.) Q3 print with Q4 political guided under the $165–185M Q3 range. --- ### GTX — Garrett Motion Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Turbo cash-cow re-rated (~8–9x → ~18x) on a datacenter/industrial oil-free cooling narrative; the parabolic Feb→June leg (~$20→$36) is spent, shares faded ~11% to the 50-day near $32.30, and the ~late-July Q2 print is the first chance to attach real cooling revenue. Fully-priced, maturing, a wait-for-the-print name. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 loses the May–June breakout shelf and the rising trend off the February base. Secondary: an FY26 sales guide cut below the $3.6B floor, or a Q2 print (~late July) with no datacenter/industrial-cooling revenue line, breaks the re-rate thesis. --- ### GWRE — Guidewire Software, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GWRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The August breakout extended to $189.19 on 2026-08-21 (RSI 76.2, +34.9% over three months), with Oppenheimer lifting its target to $200 on 2026-08-17 — but price now sits ~6% under the ~$201 consensus and above two of the five most recent published targets. The 2026-09-03 Q4/FY2026 print and first FY2027 ARR guide is the binary the entire August advance was built ahead of. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 gives back the 2026-08-07/08-10 breakout shelf and reframes the August advance as a squeeze inside the downtrend from $261.88; secondarily, a 2026-09-03 FY2027 ending-ARR guide implying growth under ~15%. --- ### HAE — Haemonetics Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Legacy medtech pivot moved from promised to reported: the 2026-08-06 Q1 FY2027 beat ($339.4M vs $327.9M, adj EPS $1.14 vs $1.08) turned Interventional Technologies positive (+2.8% organic vs −10.3% in Q4) and lifted FY2027 organic guidance to +4–7%. Six targets rose inside 48 hours; at $90.80 the controversy is settled and the next dated test is ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 surrenders the entire 2026-08-06 print reaction and returns price to the pre-earnings $77–$85 congestion; secondarily, a Q2 FY2027 print with Interventional Technologies back to negative organic growth or the raised +4–7% organic FY range left unchanged. --- ### HELE — Helen of Troy Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Deleveraging-stub leg broke out: 2026-08-14 close $30.22 is a 52-week closing high with no dated news behind it, above the $26.50 consensus target and both published targets. Forward P/E re-rated 7.55→8.25 on an unchanged $3.25–$3.75 FY27 guide, so the ~2026-10-08 Q2 print carries the whole load; 2026-08-25 AGM votes a stock-plan share increase first. Kill line: A daily close below $27.95 surrenders the August breakout over the 2026-07-28 pivot of $29.65 and the rising 50-day line, returning price to the $25.13–$29.65 post-print range; secondarily, net leverage flat or above 3.48x at the ~2026-10-08 Q2 print, or any cut to the $85–$100M FY2027 free-cash-flow guide. --- ### HELP — Cybin Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-dilution CNS microcap re-firing with the psychedelic cohort (ATAI, CMPS all moving 2026-07-16) after a June social-velocity blowoff and a 10.3M-share secondary at $4.85. Both covering shops cut targets in July while holding Buy. No dated catalyst — APPROACH Phase 3 reads out years out. Wants a base above $4.85 before it's tradable. Kill line: A daily close below $4.85 — back through the 2026-06-24 secondary-offering price — puts the entire offering book underwater and confirms the social-velocity melt-up has fully unwound with no support structure beneath it. --- ### HIMS — Hims & Hers Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Thesis: GLP-1 reaccel gets marked to market on 2026-08-10: guide $680-700M (+25-28%) vs Q1's +4%, street at $698.9M. Since the last note the FTC/CA/UT sued (2026-07-29, N.D. Cal.), BofA cut $37 to $30, and Amazon ($50/mo Medicare GLP-1, 2026-08-06) plus CVS entered the lane. Consensus PT $30.32 now sits under the $31.59 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 loses the $29.53 convertible conversion reference and the pre-print shelf; secondary condition: the 2026-08-10 Q2 print coming in under the $680M guide floor or a Q3 guide that fails to hold a +25% run-rate. --- ### HIVE — HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Bitcoin miners, GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-compute re-rating has its first blue-chip proof — BUZZ HPC's $220M Bell/Cohere sovereign-AI GPU deal (~$70M ARR) on top of $35M contracted ARR — but the stock stalled ~$3.79 below its early-June highs as BTC bled ~45-50% off October and a $300M ATM plus $115M of notes cap upside. Needs a price reclaim to confirm; no fresh momentum yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.20 fills the early-June Bell/Cohere breakout gap and confirms the AI re-rating failed to hold its base against a falling BTC tape; secondary: the next monthly BUZZ HPC update shows contracted ARR flat-to-down, or BTC loses $58K and drags the miner basket below breakeven. --- ### HNST — The Honest Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Margin re-rate is consolidating rather than fading: $5.05 on 2026-08-21 is 7.5% under the 2026-08-07 high of $5.46 with RSI down from 83.3 to 72.2, and Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-13 raise to $5.7 restored a target above the market. Nothing discloses a financial figure before the Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.); September conferences are private investor meetings. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.60 gives back roughly half the 2026-08-06 earnings-day advance and breaks the margin re-rate leg; secondary break is Q3 adjusted gross margin printing under the mid-40s FY guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) report, without the $6.6M tariff-refund credit. --- ### HOV — Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Class A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The housing-bill leg is spent — the Act auto-enacted 2026-07-11 and nothing dated has replaced it — yet HOV has re-rated to $137.78 (2026-08-07), 11.8% off the $156.16 high, on no company news. The confirmed 2026-08-20 Q3 print (quarter closed 07-31) is now the only resolution point, into 6.69% mortgage rates, a fifth Fed pause on 07-29 and a sole covering analyst at $74. Kill line: A weekly close below $122 breaks the 2026-07-09 trough close of $122.29 that the current recovery leg was built from; reinforced if the 2026-08-20 Q3 FY2026 print lands another loss with backlog still contracting year-over-year and no gross-margin recovery. --- ### HROW — Harrow, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HROW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Managed care & health services Thesis: Post-Q2 this is a leverage-and-execution show-me: the reaffirmed $350–365M FY guide needs H2 to roughly double the $114.9M booked in H1, against $292.4M loans payable net and $14.8M equity. The 2026-08-20 IHEEZO comfort data supports the retina volume leg but resolves none of that, and no company-confirmed catalyst lands before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 erases the post-Q2 stabilisation and leaves the mid-May reaction low near $34 as the next reference; secondary break is any cut to the reaffirmed $350–365M FY2026 revenue or $80–100M adjusted EBITDA guide at or before the Q3 print. --- ### HTFL — Heartflow, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTFL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-16 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: AI coronary diagnostics re-rated on the 2026-08-13 Q2 print: revenue +48% YoY to $64.1M, FY26 guide lifted to $246–250M from $228–232M, Plaque revenue $7.8M running ~$4M ahead of plan, six targets raised on 2026-08-14. Narrative is accelerating; the entry is an RSI-93.4 close at the 52-week high with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 retraces the 2026-08-14 print gap in full and returns price to the pre-Q2 range; a Q3 print (~2026-11-12) that trims the $246–250M FY2026 guide, or Plaque revenue below Q2's $7.8M, confirms the break. --- ### HTLD — Heartland Express, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Margin-recovery leg is already printed — Q2 OR 91.0% vs 105.9% — but flattered by $25.0M of equipment-disposal gains, and the beat drew no sustained bid (Barclays cut to $12 on 2026-08-13, after it). Price has since stabilised near $12–$13 with no company event inside 30 days; macro freight prints from 2026-09-01 carry the name until the ~late-October Q3 test. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 breaks the August stabilisation zone and puts price under Barclays' 2026-08-13 target. Secondary: the Q3 print (~2026-10-22, est.) showing operating ratio back above 95% once the $25.0M of disposal gains normalise, or spot van rates rolling back under contract. --- ### HUBS — Hubspot, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUBS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Agentic-monetization leg still broken since the 2026-08-05 print (7,000 net adds vs 9,000–10,000 guided; Q3 guided +14%), but price has retraced from the 2026-08-07 close of $210.45 to $240.01 on 2026-08-21 with zero new company data — right into the $242.61 consensus target. UNBOUND, 2026-09-16 to 09-18, is the first venue for replacement evidence. Kill line: A weekly close below $210 — beneath the 2026-08-07 post-print close of $210.45 — would confirm the gap retracement failed and the $200–$225 analyst-target cluster is a ceiling; secondary, UNBOUND ending 2026-09-18 with agent adoption counts and no dollarized outcome-based-pricing metric. --- ### HZO — MarineMax, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HZO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Deal pin rather than a growth story: the $53.00 all-cash Safe Harbor/Blackstone Infrastructure take-private, signed 2026-08-09, leaves $0.80 to terms at the 2026-08-21 close of $52.20. What trades now is HSR/FDI clearance and a shareholder vote against a mid-$30s break case, with no merger proxy on file yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 (gross spread wider than ~5.7% against the $53.00 cash terms), or an HSR second request or disclosed foreign FDI review that pushes the stated end-2026 close into 2027. --- ### IART — Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IART/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-20 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Med-device turnaround re-rating is now fully banked into Hold-grade targets: BMO initiated Market Perform $19 (Jul 9) and Citi raised to Neutral $19 (Jul 8), both landing on the tape (~$18.76). The distressed-to-fair leg is done; only Argus's $25 sits above price, organic growth is +1.3%, and a binary Q2 print lands early August. Fresh entry pays fair value, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 loses the June post-Argus breakout shelf (built above the ~$17.43 consensus and old $17.83 high). Independently invalidated by a renewed manufacturing/recall/compliance 8-K, or an FY guide cut / the IEEPA tariff benefit flagged non-recurring at the early-August Q2 print. --- ### ICHR — Ichor Holdings URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Thesis: Memory-capex WFE subsystem re-rating broke on the 2026-08-03 Q2 print: revenue $294.8M missed $300.2M consensus, the $78 June shelf failed, and the 2026-08-07 close was $68.32 against a $112.28 high. Q3 guidance still beats ($315–345M vs $314.5M), so the operating story survives while the price structure has not rebuilt. Applied Materials' 2026-08-13 print is the next read-through. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 takes out the 2026-06-05 higher-low at $62.91, the last structural floor under the June breakout leg; secondary break is Applied Materials guiding WFE/memory equipment demand lower at its 2026-08-13 fiscal Q3 print. --- ### IHRT — iHeartMedia, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IHRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Cyclical industrials, M&A & special situations, Squeeze & momentum setups Thesis: M&A leg is dead — no SiriusXM headline since the 2026-05-29 NYT "stalled" report and the April spike fully round-tripped ($6.33 high → $3.86 on 2026-08-07, -39%). What is left is a binary: Q2 print 2026-08-10 after the close is the first hard read on the midterm political ramp behind the ~$800M FY EBITDA guide, on 6.9x net leverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.40 loses the post-spike floor and 200-day area, opening the $2.30–2.75 pre-spike zone; secondary: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA under the $140–160M guide on the 2026-08-10 print, or the FY ~$800M EBITDA / ~$200M FCF guide being cut on that call. --- ### IMMX — Immix Biopharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Single-asset CAR-T regulatory story: NXC-201 posted a 95% CR rate (19/20) in NEXICART-2 on 2026-05-21 and holds FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation from 2026-01-28, with a BLA guided for 2026. Price closed 2026-08-21 at its 52-week high ($13.66, RSI 86.8) into a late-September data update — the update is the binary and the May 95% is the bar. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the August leg into the 52-week high; secondary break is the late-September NEXICART-2 update arriving with an expanded-cohort CR rate below the 95% (19/20) set 2026-05-21, or the window passing with no data and no reaffirmed 2026 BLA date. --- ### IMRX — Immuneering Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Busted-catalyst pancreatic biotech: atebimetinib's 17.3-mo single-arm 1L OS is real, but the Phase 3 binary is mid-2028 and the tape keeps fading post-ASCO ($5.11→$4.32 in two weeks) even as targets climb to $18–$30. Cheap value-optionality (~$80M EV vs $198.6M cash) with no dated OS catalyst for ~2 years — a base-building watch, not fresh momentum. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.90 undercuts the post-ASCO base and confirms the market de-rating atebimetinib's single-arm OS toward the $2.90 52-week low; a competing MEK/MAPK Phase 3 miss or a dilutive raise into the Aug 12 print compounds the break. --- ### INBX — Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INBX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Non-dilutive bridge into the 2027-04-14 PDUFA, with one item pulled forward: the 2026-08-13 Q2 release moved the INBRX-106 HNSCC PFS readout into Q3 2026 and dated the CRC registrational FDA meeting to Q4 2026. But the two-week advance from $88.66 (2026-08-07) to $103.63 (2026-08-21) carries no headline, and RSI(14) is 72.2. Kill line: A weekly close below $88 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance and returns the name to the June-August shelf ($88.66 close 2026-08-07, $87.01 close 2026-06-05); secondarily 2026-09-30 passing with neither the guided Q3 HNSCC PFS readout nor a HexAgon Phase 3 initiation announced, or an S-3/ATM supplement filed. --- ### INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INDI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Thesis: Automotive ADAS-silicon design-win story keeps improving on paper ($7.4B backlog, $25M radar order, ams OSRAM sensor buy) while the tape stays broken below the ~$4.00 50-day MA; TD Cowen's 2026-07-13 lift to a $4.50 Hold is a thaw, not a trigger. No clean setup until Q2 earnings 2026-08-06 — value-trap zone. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 confirms the failed breakout is extending toward the $2.32 52-week low and keeps it a no-touch falling knife; the constructive case only re-arms on a reclaim of ~$4.00 then a weekly close above $4.81 on volume with auto-semi peers (MBLY/NXPI) confirming. --- ### INFQ — Infleqtion, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INFQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Quantum computing Thesis: Neutral-atom quantum with accelerating government-funded revenue: Q2 revenue $12.633M beat at +116% YoY and FY26 guidance went to ~$43M on 2026-08-12, but the 2026-08-14 close of $12.86 is 50.4% under the $25.95 high after ~$443.7M of twelve-month insider selling. Operating leg accelerating into a broken price structure, with no dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $10.90 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance and the 2026-08-05/06 shelf; secondarily, the up-to-$100M CHIPS Letter of Intent lapsing without a definitive award, or a Q3 print that leaves the ~$43M FY26 guide out of reach. --- ### INHD — Inno Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: The frozen tape resolved against the story: T12 lifted 2026-07-31 at noon ET and the reopen has been one-way — $8.46 on 2026-08-14 (-21.96% that session, RSI 13.8) versus the $39.49 halt print. The June AI-agent narrative is broken, a $60M ATM sits above a $21.3M market cap, and the listed 2026-08-28 report is the next dated disclosure. Kill line: A weekly close below $5 confirms the post-halt unwind has cut through toward the $1.01 pre-spike zone with no shelf; secondarily, the 2026-08-28 listed earnings date passing with no revenue recognised from the $3M development agreement, or an 8-K disclosing adverse special-committee findings, each independently ends the residual speculative case. --- ### INOD — Innodata Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-09 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: AI training-data pure-play with a still-accelerating fundamental story (Q1 rev +54%, 40%+ FY26 guide reaffirmed 06-17) but a fully broken chart: ~-51% from the June $125.14 ATH to ~$61, with the CEO filing a fresh 200k-share sale on 07-16 into a binary Aug 6 Q2 print. Real narrative, distributing tape — a knife, not a base. Kill line: secondarily, an Aug 6 Q2 print showing the ~56% anchor customer cutting spend, or a FY26 guide cut, breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### INTA — Intapp, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Agentic-AI attach on a compliance-locked professional-firm base, now with a number: Q4 FY26 (2026-08-04) put AI bookings above 20% of net new, and the 2026-08-13 10-K disclosed $833.0M RPO. But the 2026-08-21 close of $41.35 is 25% above the $33.00 seven-analyst average target with RSI 74.5, and no company-dated event lands before the ~November Q1 FY27 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $36.96 — the level around which the 2026-08-05 post-print gap session settled — ends the continuation leg above the earnings gap; secondarily, a Q1 FY27 report (~2026-11-03 est.) that trims the FY27 revenue range of $656.5–660.5M or shows cloud ARR growth below the reported 29%. --- ### IPAR — Interparfums, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPAR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Quality-defensive re-rating has rolled over: the 2026-08-04 binary passed with a $0.95 EPS miss and an FY guide reaffirmed BELOW consensus ($1.480B/$4.85 vs $1.503B/$4.87), then TD Cowen and Goldman both cut to Hold/Neutral on 2026-08-10 while raising targets. $114.63 close (2026-08-14), -10.8% from the $128.55 high, RSI 34.8, still +34.1% over 3 months. No dated fundamental catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 ends the June–July breakout leg and opens the rising 90-day average that ran near $97 in late July; secondary confirmation would be any trim to the affirmed $1.480B / $4.85 FY2026 guide, or a third covering firm leaving Buy after the 2026-08-10 TD Cowen and Goldman cuts. --- ### IPX — IperionX Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: US critical-minerals sovereignty name whose funding overhang cleared the ugly way: a 2026-07-08 US$50M ADS raise priced at $21.98, ~22% below the ~$28 pre-deal level, resetting the stock to $22.94 near its $21.66 52-week low. Pre-revenue, below all moving averages, with an open securities probe — a downtrend that capitulated into its own discounted raise. The setup does not clear until it bases and reclaims the low-$30s on volume. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.66 loses the 52-week low and the July $21.98 raise floor, confirming the sovereignty bid has exited; secondarily, escalation of the open securities probe to a filed class action, or a second discounted equity raise. --- ### IQ — iQIYI, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-19 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: AI enterprise software, Squeeze & momentum setups, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment, Emerging markets Thesis: Long-form streaming growth is broken in the reported numbers (Q1 2026 revenue -13% YoY, operating income to a RMB228.4m loss), so what is left is the micro-drama/overseas pivot — newly branded as Undercurrent Theater in early August 2026 — which still carries no disclosed revenue line. The 2026-08-18 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.20 hands back the entire three-month advance and returns the ADS to its pre-bounce range; secondary, the 2026-08-18 Q2 print passing with no disclosed micro-drama or overseas revenue line and non-GAAP operating income still below zero. --- ### IRWD — Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Post-print drift: the 2026-08-06 binary resolved with FY26 guidance raised (revenue $460–485M, adjusted EBITDA above $310M) but both reported lines missing consensus, and two weeks on the stock is unchanged at $4.29, 20.4% under the $5.39 high. Now a deleveraging cash-flow story with a 16-month-old strategic review as unpriced optionality and no dated catalyst before Q3 results in early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.80 unwinds the July advance and returns price to the June low-$3s zone. Secondary: a Q3 print tracking LINZESS below the raised $1.15–1.20B FY26 guide, or a formal end to the strategic review with no transaction. --- ### IT — Gartner, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Post-derate re-rating still working on price but the information flow has stopped: since the 2026-08-04 gap (+23.7%) the only new data is BMO cutting its target to $206 on 2026-08-18 and three insider sales at $184–$191. The 2026-08-21 close of $195.9 carries RSI 76.7 with no scheduled disclosure until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $168 marks the 2026-08-04 earnings gap as failed with no company data in the interval; secondarily, total contract-value growth at the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print falling back to or below the +1.7% YoY posted at 2026-06-30. --- ### ITGR — Integer Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ITGR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Signed-deal instrument since 2026-08-03: KKR's $127.00 all-cash agreement leaves $1.80 above the 2026-08-21 close of $125.20 (~1.4%), unchanged from two weeks earlier. The paperwork stage has begun with no paperwork — no merger proxy on file as of 2026-08-22, no HSR disclosure — against a year-end 2026 closing guide and a 2027-05-02 outside date. Kill line: A daily close below $118 — more than a 7% discount to the $127 cash consideration — marks the market repricing completion odds; an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request, or a merger proxy guiding closing into H1 2027, would confirm. --- ### IVA — Inventiva S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Single-asset MASH binary, still dormant: zero company news in the 30 days to 2026-08-23, with the undated Q4 2026 NATiV3 topline carrying the whole equity. RSI(14) firmed to 66.7 at the $4.68 close on no flow, while the $4.40 June offering price remains the structural reference. The 2026-09-25 H1 results are the next dated venue for runway and topline-timing language. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 breaks the 2026-06-02 offering shelf and opens the prior-cycle low near $2.85; NATiV3 topline language moving off Q4 2026 at the 2026-09-25 H1 results would compound it by pushing the readout toward the end-Q2 2027 base-case runway. --- ### JACK — Jack In The Box Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JACK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-29 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: June's move was a float mechanic — Russell Microcap inclusion (effective 2026-06-30) into a 40%-short float drove $8.92 to $18.13, and it is unwinding ($14.98 on 2026-07-17, -7.76%). SSS is genuinely inflecting (-6.7% → -3.8%), but price sits on the $15 median analyst target with no upgrade cycle left. The 2026-08-12 Q3 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 forfeits the pre-squeeze shelf and the late-June 200-day reclaim, confirming the June leg was pure index-reconstitution flow; a Q3 same-store-sales print on 2026-08-12 worse than the -3.8% Q2 base, or FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guided below $225M, is the fundamental confirm. --- ### JBIO — Jade Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBIO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: The post-Q2 revision leg round-tripped: $24.71 on 2026-08-14 back to $21.34 on 2026-08-21, with the 2026-08-11 target raises (Wedbush $47, Jefferies $48 from $40) marking the high rather than starting a leg. The July shelf near $21 is now the whole structure, and no JADE101 data exists before the 2027 JUNIPER interim. Kill line: A daily close below $21 loses the July shelf the post-Q2 advance round-tripped into, leaving the June follow-on level at $15.00 as the next reference; compounded if Vera's ORIGIN 3 confirmatory eGFR (guided Q3 2026) comes and goes without lifting the IgAN lane, since JBIO has no data of its own before the 2027 JUNIPER interim. --- ### JBLU — JetBlue Airways Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBLU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B debt, 0.7 current ratio, ~$6.12 convert cap. July 28 Q2 print is now a distressed binary — the setup does not clear ahead of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.08 forfeits the reclaimed long-term moving average and confirms the fuel-reversion leg is dead; secondary breaks are Brent sustaining above $85, a Chapter 11 / restructuring announcement, or a Q2 RASM guide cut below +9% on the July 28 print. --- ### JOBY — Joby Aviation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JOBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-13 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-28 Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Defense & aerospace Thesis: eVTOL cert story still advancing (FAA TIA testing, 2026 Dubai target) but the trade rolled over: ~$8 testing support, down ~33% since June 1, recovery base gone, CFO sold ~half his stake June 8, consolidation coverage marks sentiment turning. Broken structure into the 52-week low — the setup does not clear until it bases; ~Aug 5 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.49 (the 52-week low) confirms capitulation and opens untested single-digit lows; secondarily, the Dubai passenger launch or FAA TIA pilot evaluations slipping into 2027 removes the near-term re-rate. --- ### JWEL — Jowell Global Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JWEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-11 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Semi foundry & equipment, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Low-float China e-commerce microcap that repriced +106% intraday on 2026-08-10 with no filing behind it; the leg being bought is float scarcity (2.38M shares out, $7.3M market cap) plus a 0.04x sales optic. Nothing on the calendar resolves it before semi-annual results expected ~2026-12. Kill line: A daily close below $2.60 removes the post-2026-08-10 shelf and opens a full retrace of the spike toward the pre-spike $1-handle; secondary, a 6-K disclosing an equity raise priced at or below the market, or the H1 2026 report (~2026-12, est.) landing with a net loss wider than the $1.3M H1 2025 figure. --- ### KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Section 232 aluminum supply-shock (50% duty through 2027) plus a Q1 earnings inflection already repriced KALU ~+175% YoY to a $195 high; the move is maturing toward saturated with price at/above every published target. The estimated ~2026-07-22 Q2 print now sits inside the next three trading days — an earnings-blackout binary with no setup behind it at range highs. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 breaks the post-Q1/June consolidation floor and the rising 50-day, ending the momentum leg; secondary: a Q2 (~2026-07-22) conversion-revenue guide cut below the prior +10–15% raise, or the US Midwest premium falling under ~$1,800/tonne. --- ### KALV — KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-20 Thesis: Resolved cash takeout, not a live security: Chiesi's $27.00/share acquisition closed 2026-06-11, KALV delisted the same morning, Form 15-12G filed 2026-06-22, and Rule 12g-4 registration termination lands ~2026-09-20. The 2026-06-10 close of $27.00 — 0.0% from the high, RSI 77 — is an artifact of a terminated series. The narrative is dead. Kill line: A daily close below $27.00 can no longer print: KALV ceased trading on Nasdaq before the open on 2026-06-11 at the $27.00 cash consideration and filed Form 15-12G on 2026-06-22, with Rule 12g-4 termination effective ~2026-09-20. Only a rescinded merger plus a US relisting would reopen the level. --- ### KARO — Karooooo Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KARO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, AI enterprise software, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Record-subscriber-adds narrative intact but fully priced: KARO closed $63.96 on 2026-08-21, 3.0% under the $65.91 high and at the ~$63 six-analyst average, while founder-CEO Calisto kept selling — six disclosed dates 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-20, direct holdings down to 17,649,723. No estimate-moving event until the ~2026-10-13 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 puts the shares back under the $57.90 pre-print close of 2026-07-14 and unwinds the Q1 re-rating; secondary break is Q2 FY2027 net Cartrack adds (~2026-10-13 est.) reverting toward the prior-year 84,013 after the record 142,472. --- ### KC — Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-04 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: China AI-compute capacity story is intact on fundamentals — AI gross billing +90% YoY and past half of public-cloud revenue in Q1 (reported 2026-05-27) — but the price leg broke: -32.3% from the $18.21 high with RSI(14) back at 70.0. The 2026-08-19 Q2 print is the binary this rebound has to survive. Kill line: A daily close below $11.00 unwinds the July–August rebound that carried RSI(14) to 70.0 at the 2026-08-07 close of $12.33; secondary confirmation is a Q2 gross margin on 2026-08-19 below Q1's 12.8%. --- ### KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEEL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Bitcoin miners, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Former Bitfarms miner→AI/HPC-datacenter pivot has rolled over: June's push to ~$6.14 into Citizens' $10 initiation retraced to a ~$4.975 ref by 07-06, losing the $5.00 convert shelf and drifting toward the $4.00–4.20 base. Still zero signed HPC/AI leases; the 07-15 Sherbrooke 96 MW approval widens the pipeline but isn't the tenant lease, and the ~08-11 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 forfeits the $4.00–4.20 pre-pivot launch base and confirms a full retrace of the miner→AI re-rate; secondary breaks: the ~2026-08-11 Q2 print landing with still zero signed HPC/AI leases, or an at-market equity raise stacked on the $458M convert. --- ### KELYA — Kelly Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KELYA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rate extended to a new 52-week high at the 2026-08-21 close of $17.09, but the last dated sponsorship input was Noble's 2026-08-12 estimate raise — price is now running ahead of the research behind it. July temp-help payrolls rose for a seventh straight month; the 2026-08-28 benchmark revision is the near-term test, and no company catalyst lands before ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 unwinds the August breakout through the prior $16.31 high and returns price to its pre-print range; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) with reported revenue under the $916.3M guidance floor, or adjusted EBITDA margin below the guided low-2% range, removes the inflection case. --- ### KFRC — Kforce Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KFRC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Cyclical staffing recovery is fully printed — Q1 returned to YoY growth, Q2 guided +~4% — but price ran ~24% in three weeks to a fresh all-time high near $58.6, ~38% above the $42.33 consensus PT, into the confirmed 2026-07-27 Q2 print. A low-beta income name stretched past every analyst target into a binary; the extension, not the story, is now the risk. Nothing to chase pre-print. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 forfeits the early-July breakout shelf (the ~$50.90 pivot) and signals the recovery-momentum leg has rolled, opening the $46–47 June base and the $40–42 post-Q1 gap; secondary, a 2026-07-27 Q2 print under the $344M revenue guide low-end or margins missing the 5.0–5.4% band. --- ### KGS — Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KGS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Post-print bounce failed: the ~21% rally off the 2026-08-07 low of $53.90 stalled at the 2026-08-14 close of $65.35, and the 2026-08-21 close of $61.46 sits just above the $59 break level. Record Q2 EBITDA and a raised FY26 guide are in the price; the market is now discounting contract conversion, with no dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $59 gives back the 2026-08-07 outside-reversal leg and the $59.72 low of 2026-08-10; secondary: a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) with revenue-generating capacity still near 363 MW and no signed long-duration data-center contract beyond the existing anchor, or a cut to the FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide of $830-860M. --- ### KLAC — KLA Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The $190 weekly level named in prior coverage broke — 2026-08-21 close $183.99, 38.9% under the $301.37 52-week high — and the three-month change of -2.5% makes the June advance a completed round trip. saturated: the $4.0B ±$200M September guide is intact while the bid for it has thinned. Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print is the only sector datapoint before the ~late-October KLA print. Kill line: A weekly close below $175 takes the round trip beneath the pre-June-advance zone and ends the residual re-rating case (label moves to dead); secondarily, a September quarter at or under the $3.8B low end of the $4.0B ±$200M guide at the ~2026-10-28 print, or no weekly close back above $210 by then. --- ### KLC — KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cybersecurity Thesis: Distressed post-IPO childcare name has retraced ~180% off its $1.75 spring low to $4.93 as growth shifts to B2B/employer care and before-after-school (Champions +17% YoY), while the core ECE business still shrinks (−3% enrollment). The ~13 Aug 2026 Q2 print is the binary that confirms the turnaround or reasserts the downtrend. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 forfeits the recovery shelf built off the spring lows and reasserts the post-IPO downtrend; a secondary break is a ~13 Aug 2026 Q2 print re-accelerating ECE enrollment declines past −3% YoY or lifting the center-closure count. --- ### KNX — Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Thesis: Beat-and-raise verified on 2026-07-22 ($0.63 adj vs $0.35 y/y; Q3 guided $0.71–$0.77), yet no new high followed and the driver is decelerating: all-mode tender rejections 17.22% mid-July → 14.88% early Aug → ~13.46% late Aug. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 takes out the late-July post-print low and turns the 2026 advance into a failed breakout on proven numbers. Secondary: all-mode tender rejections holding under 12% through September, or the ~2026-10-21 (est.) Q3 print landing adjusted EPS beneath the $0.71 guide floor. --- ### KOD — Kodiak Sciences Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Binary-catalyst redemption arc now inside its final month: DAYBREAK wet-AMD one-year topline guided September 2026. Price keeps stepping down through good news — $42.64 (07-17) to $41.35 (08-14) to $38.33 (08-21), -17.5% from the $46.44 high — while JPM's $66 and HC Wainwright's $58 targets sit far above. Thin pre-readout bid, $125.9M cash, financing overhang live. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 gives back the June post-GLOW2 shelf and marks the pre-readout bid as failed; secondarily, a DAYBREAK topline in September 2026 that misses the one-year primary endpoint or shows no dosing-interval edge over aflibercept, or an equity raise priced before the readout. --- ### KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered small-cap — a probe on re-acceleration, not a fat pitch. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 breaks the July bounce off the late-June low and re-opens the $1.50s; reinforced if Brent sustains back under $75 as the Hormuz premium bleeds out and the 'CCC'-rated, ~1.8x-levered balance sheet loses its macro tailwind. --- ### KRT — Karat Packaging Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Tariff-refund re-rating has now run past almost every published target: the 2026-08-21 close of $48.05 sits under only Lake Street's $50 (raised 2026-08-07) and 41% above B. of A.'s $34. A 10% owner sold at $47.33 on 2026-08-20, and nothing dated tests the 35–37% Q3 gross-margin guide until the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 fills the 2026-08-06 post-print gap and ends the tariff-refund re-rating leg; secondary, the 2026-09-10 Lake Street conference passing with no published target above the market and the 35–37% Q3 gross-margin guide left unrevised. --- ### KSS — Kohls Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KSS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Squeeze leg has stalled: Morgan Stanley's 2026-07-06 Underweight/$15 reinit broke the one-way upgrade cluster and knocked the stock -5.9% on 07-08. Price ~$17.18 still holds above the 50- and 200-day, but with the sell-side now two-sided and the $190M tariff cash already known, the tactical edge is gone until it re-bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 ends the squeeze leg — that level is both the TD Cowen Hold target and the 200-day area the stock reclaimed in June; losing it on a weekly basis puts the June upgrade shelf behind price. Secondary: the Phase 2 balance of the $190M tariff refund failing to convert from filed claim to booked cash. --- ### KURA — Kura Oncology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KURA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-03 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The binary already fired: KOMZIFTI's 2025-11-13 approval and ~40% R/R NPM1 share are priced, and the $24–28 targets need a frontline Phase 3 that doesn't read until 2028. The tape is drifting — $10.39, lower third of the H1 range. A maturing special-situation biotech in a two-year catalyst gap; the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next real read, not an accelerating setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the post-approval consolidation base and loses the rising 200-day; confirmed if the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows KOMZIFTI revenue stalling near Q1's $5.8M, or the menin-inhibitor class flips to saturated as revumenib and bleximenib take frontline share. --- ### KVYO — Klaviyo, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KVYO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Aug 5 binary resolved: Q2 revenue $370.576M (+26%) beat $362.110M and FY26 guide rose to $1.526–1.534B, yet shares fell 13.3% to $16.73 on 2026-08-06 before recovering to $18.49. The growth-compounder narrative is broken — deceleration to a 21.5–22.5% Q3 guide, Q3 margin stepping down to ~10.5–11%, and Summit Partners' full 5M-share exit at $17.71 on 2026-08-11 against an unproven AI-agent leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.73 gives back the entire post-Q2 repair off the 2026-08-06 reaction close and returns the name to the downtrend in force since 2026-05-13; a Q4 revenue guide implying sub-20% growth at the Q3 report would seal the deceleration case. --- ### LAC — Lithium Americas Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-Q2 bounce failed: the 2026-08-21 close of $3.14 came while the GFEX carbonate benchmark rose to 152,250 CNY/t — commodity up, equity down. The 2026-08-17 S-3ASR registers 72,553,609 Yorkville resale shares, 19.99% of shares outstanding; Share supply, not lithium, is setting the price. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 re-establishes the post-financing lows and confirms registered Yorkville supply is clearing at any price; further confirmed if the remaining $25M tranche is drawn while the GFEX carbonate benchmark holds above 150,000 CNY/t. --- ### LAR — Lithium Argentina AG URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, M&A & special situations Thesis: Commodity-beta bounce stopped transmitting: GFEX 2609 extended to CNY 156,140/t on 2026-08-22 while the shares went $6.82 (08-14) to $6.83 (08-21) and RSI cooled 66.8 to 58.6. Lithium-recovery narrative reads saturated; two price targets cut in six days, and no company-scheduled event before the ~end-Q3 Stage 2 scoping study. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 breaks the shelf that held through the early-August lithium flush and re-opens the descent toward the $2.52 prior-cycle low; reinforced if the GFEX 2609/2610 complex loses the CNY 135,560/t early-August low, or if the ~2026-09-30 Stage 2 scoping study passes without a reclaim of $7.00. --- ### LEGN — Legend Biotech Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LEGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-15 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: In-vivo CAR-T re-rate has matured into digestion: EHA (6/13) confirmed LB2501's 100% ORR and clean durability, but the 6/17 $226M raise at $29.35 capped the leg and JPM's 7/13 Neutral $35 reinstatement caps the Street. No fresh catalyst until the ~8/12 Q2 CARVYKTI read; sell-the-news gap-fade is the live near-term risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $25.50 fills the pre-data gap and negates the in-vivo CAR-T re-rate; the $29.35 June offering price is the nearer warning shelf. Secondary: a soft Q2 CARVYKTI sales read at the ~2026-08-12 print, or an in-vivo peer printing competing human durability data that flips the theme to saturated. --- ### LGIH — LGI Homes, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGIH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-27 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Legislative-spike homebuilder fading into rising rates: LGIH gave back over half its 2026-06-24 ROAD-to-Housing gap, closing $58.52 on 2026-07-17 as ~6.65% mortgage rates dragged the whole builder cohort lower. Q2 closings grew +8.8% YoY, but the accelerating leg has stalled and the 2026-08-04 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 fills the 2026-06-24 legislative gap ($56.06 origin) and voids the recovery back toward the converged 50/200-day averages; the fade extends if 30-year mortgage rates push through 7% or the 2026-08-04 Q2 print misses on margin. --- ### LGN — Legence Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: AI-datacenter MEP/HVAC pick-and-shovel story still improving on fundamentals (record $5.38B backlog, FY guide raised to $4.1–4.3B), but the tape has decoupled: ~33% off the $102 May close high, LGN sliced the $76 breakout shelf and rolled its 20-EMA. Guggenheim's $115 (07-10) and the whole $93–115 target band now sit above a falling stock. Broken structure, not a base — the setup does not clear until it proves a higher low. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 loses the April Blackstone secondary strike — the last absorbed-supply shelf — and confirms a value trap rather than a re-entry base; secondary breaks: Q2 (2026-08-09) revenue under the $1.05B guided floor, any cut to the $4.1–4.3B FY guide, or the data-center theme flipping to saturated. --- ### LIFE — Ethos Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LIFE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 re-rating intact but the leg has gone quiet: the 2026-08-21 close of $34.16 versus $34.02 a week earlier with RSI(14) cooling 91.6→82.3, while four Form 4 filers — President Wang, Sequoia's Nalrena/Spelunker, the CEO and the CAO — sold between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-20 near the $35.69 high. No scheduled catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 breaks the consolidation band built since the 2026-08-03 earnings gap; the lowest disclosed insider execution price on 2026-08-19/20 was $31.8450. Secondary: the ~2026-11-02 (est.) Q3 print landing inside the $160–164M guide with no FY raise above $731M. --- ### LILA — Liberty Latin America Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Emerging markets, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Break-up leg intact but the news flow has flipped from company action to downgrades: Morgan Stanley cut to Underweight $7.00 on 2026-08-20, leaving the 2026-08-21 close of $8.47 above all three dated targets ($6.50/$7.00/$8.00). RSI 51.9 with price 2.6% off the $8.70 high; nothing company-scheduled until the Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $7.30 forfeits the entire post-Q2 advance and returns price into the pre-print July range; secondarily, the Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) passing with the Puerto Rico separation still carrying no announced form, no Form 10 and no completion window. --- ### LILAK — Liberty Latin America Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: M&A & special situations, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Post-catalyst drift: the $500M preferred special dividend and the June Malone/Nair insider cluster already drove a ~70% run off $4.76 to ~$8.30, and the tape has stalled at $7.33. Citi cut to Neutral 2026-07-10 with a $8 target already reached; consensus $6.70 sits below spot. No theme, no new catalyst until the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.60 breaks the mid-point of the June–July advance and puts price under the $6.70 consensus target, ending the insider-bottom read; secondarily, a Q2 print around 2026-08-06 showing continued revenue erosion with no buyback execution. --- ### LMND — Lemonade, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LMND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Second straight beat-and-raise was sold: Q2 (2026-07-29) delivered revenue $294.4M (+79%) and a 60% gross loss ratio, but soft full-year in-force-premium guidance and an unchanged $47–51M FY adjusted-EBITDA loss guide took the stock -26% over July. Piper cut its target to $51 and KBW's $48 sits below the 2026-08-14 close of $52.64. No company-dated catalyst inside 30 days; the $50 neckline is the whole structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 breaks the head-and-shoulders neckline held since spring and reopens $43, then the $35.70 52-week low; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) that trims full-year in-force-premium guidance again or pushes adjusted-EBITDA breakeven past Q4 2026 removes the remaining leg. --- ### LNC — Lincoln National Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-31 Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Legacy-risk-transfer re-rating: the 2026-07-30 Talcott deal cedes ~$5.8B of GUL statutory reserves for ~$200M all-in statutory capital, alongside a Q2 adjusted EPS beat at $2.24 vs $1.96. But the information is out, price sits 2.1% under the 52wk high and above the $43 median target, and nothing is scheduled until the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $42 gives back the July deal-driven re-rating and returns price to the pre-announcement broker-target zone (JPM $42, TD Cowen $42); secondarily, the Talcott cession failing to close in Q4 2026 as guided. --- ### LOVE — The Lovesac Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LOVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The ~$17 reclaim failed: a $17.29 close on 2026-08-14 gave way to $16.07 on 2026-08-21, back under the 50-day at $16.79, while short interest decayed to 3.03M shares (28.35% of float) from ~4.05M on Jan–Mar data. The ~2026-09-10 Q2 FY27 print — first full quarter under CFO Farag, against a company bar of $157–166M net sales — is the only thing resolving inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.50 forfeits the summer range and leaves only the rising 200-day near $14.85 beneath; secondary: the ~2026-09-10 Q2 FY27 print landing net sales under the company's own $157M low end, or FY27 net sales guided beneath the $700M floor. --- ### LPRO — Open Lending Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LPRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, M&A & special situations Thesis: Terminal, not fading: ANV's $3.15 all-cash tender expired 2026-07-27 with ~85.65% tendered, shares accepted 2026-07-28, §251(h) merger consummated 2026-07-30. Last public close $3.14 on 2026-07-29. As of 2026-08-23 nothing has reopened it — no topping bid, no docketed appraisal, no resumed quote. No listed instrument, no narrative leg. Kill line: A daily close below $3.15 can no longer print on this symbol: the common last traded 2026-07-29 at $3.14 and the ANV merger consummated 2026-07-30, cashing out all shares at $3.15 with Nasdaq delisting and deregistration following. Ended by completion, not by price. --- ### LQDA — Liquidia Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LQDA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: The prior break level triggered: LQDA closed the week at $68.62 on 2026-08-21, through the $70 July shelf and the 08-13 low close of $72.10, despite six post-print targets at $90–$111. Q2 sales grew +31% QoQ, but the re-rating leg is broken and there is no dated catalyst before a ~2026-11-10 Q3 print. The undated '327 bench ruling is the only near-term binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 puts the shares under the entire May 2026 post-Q1 target cluster ($59–$70) and confirms the market is repricing the >$1B 2027 guide. Secondary: a '327 docket entry granting permanent PH-ILD injunctive relief, or Q3 YUTREPIA net sales at or below Q2's $170.4M. --- ### LUNR — Intuitive Machines, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LUNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The June 30 NASA Moon BASE award ($148.3M Nova-C) bought exactly one green session before the stock broke: seven straight down days into 2026-07-13 for -24.5%, -36.5% on the month, $13.80 on 2026-07-18 versus a $38.55 May high. A live $500M ATM plus a new insider 10b5-1 plan (up to 1.94M shares, filed 2026-07-07) means supply keeps hitting a bid that is not there. No company catalyst until the ~2026-08-18 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 opens the pre-run base and puts the $7.78 52-week low in play; only a weekly close back above $20 — with the ATM shelf exhausted or withdrawn and the space complex printing higher highs — restores a constructive read. --- ### LZ — LegalZoom.com, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: AI-reset narrative — a busted online legal-forms IPO repositioning as an AI-enabled SMB subscription platform (Anthropic partner, AI "digital mailroom") — drove a +29% 30-day rip into July. But it's stretched into the 2026-08-05 Q2 print, whose guided revenue midpoint ($205M) sits below consensus ($207.96M). A fresh long at $7.73 is a chase into a binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 fails the June breakout base ($5.50–6.00) and voids the momentum leg; separately, an in-line-to-soft Q2 on 2026-08-05 that confirms the guide midpoint below consensus $207.96M would mark the rip complete. --- ### M — Macy's Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/M/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-27 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Morgan Stanley broke the all-Hold wall on 2026-07-06, resuming at Overweight with a $30 target and a $3 EPS-power call vs ~$2 consensus — the first real upgrade catalyst since the Q1 beat. But price faded the note ($23.99 → $22.64 by 07-12) before recovering to ~$24, still ~8% under the $26.10 high, with nothing scheduled until the ~early-Sept Q2 print. Base-building, not a breakout. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 forfeits the July base built after the Morgan Stanley upgrade and confirms the sell-side re-rating failed to attract flow; secondary: the ~2026-09-03 Q2 print landing in-guide ($0.29–$0.34) and missing the ~$0.35 Street number. --- ### MAMA — Mama's Creations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Small-cap value rotation, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The $16.50 shelf from prior coverage is gone: 2026-08-21 weekly close $16.44, RSI(14) 26.3, still under the $18.00 June placement price. Earnings moved forward — Q2 FY2027 lands 2026-09-03 after the close and is the binary on both the 23.6% gross margin and the first use of ~$94.0M net proceeds. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.00 surrenders the entire post-2026-06-08 Q1 advance; secondarily, a 2026-09-03 Q2 FY2027 print with gross margin at or under 23.6% and the ~$94.0M net proceeds still uncommitted breaks the margin-recovery and roll-up legs together. --- ### MAN — ManpowerGroup URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Post-squeeze leg extended rather than filled: the $46 gap-fill break flagged in July never printed and MAN closed 2026-08-14 at $58.30, 1.3% off a 52-week high, +129.7% in 3 months. Cyclical staffing inflection confirmed by the 2026-08-07 10-Q, but sell-side marks stopped moving 2026-07-20 and the next company binary is ~2026-10-15. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 gives back the 2026-07-16 gap-up shelf and reopens the unfilled July earnings gap toward the pre-print zone; a soft US August payrolls print around 2026-09-04 would be the macro confirmation that the cyclical premise is rolling over. --- ### MANH — Manhattan Associates, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MANH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Freight & logistics Thesis: Cloud-conversion re-rating has closed its discount to the 52-week high on no fresh news: the 2026-08-21 close of $214.56 is 2.2% under the $219.33 high with RSI(14) at 80.2, while the last dated company item is 2026-08-04 and the last target revision 2026-07-29. The Q2 fundamentals (RPO $2.47B, +23% YoY) are intact; nothing company-scheduled resolves before the ~2026-10-27 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $195 unwinds the entire news-free August advance and returns price to the post-print consolidation zone. Secondary: the ~2026-10-27 (est.) Q3 print showing RPO growth materially below the Q2 pace of +23% YoY, or the print passing with no new sell-side revision after the 2026-07-29 cluster. --- ### MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MARA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-24 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Crypto exchanges & financials, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: AI/HPC power-buildout re-rate is the leg being bought — the 2026-07-09 HIF deal adds up to 2 GW in Texas, lifting potential capacity toward ~4.8 GW — but the golden-cross base fully round-tripped to ~$11.4 as analysts cut across the board (MS $5.50, Piper $13) and MARA still trades as leveraged Bitcoin beta into a 21-month-low tape. Narrative real, structure broken; a low-conviction probe at most. Kill line: A weekly close below $10 (loses the July shelf and the round number under the sub-$13 analyst cluster, confirming the AI-power-buildout bid is not being paid for and MARA is tracking the sub-$60K Bitcoin tape toward the $5.50 bear target); reinforced by a BTC weekly close under $60K. --- ### MATV — Mativ Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MATV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Deleveraging leg is holding but no longer advancing: the 2026-08-06 10-Q showed H1 operating cash flow of $68.9M against capex of just $15.9M (vs $22.6M in H1 2025), so part of the debt paydown came from underspend. Shares closed $12.47 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) still 80.2 and nothing dated before the ~November Q3 print except the 2026-08-28 ex-dividend. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print shelf; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.) showing adjusted EBITDA margin under 13% or net debt failing to fall from $908.2M would break the deleveraging leg. --- ### MAZE — Maze Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAZE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: APOL1 kidney precision-medicine story intact, but the 2026-08-11 Q2 print emptied 2026 of catalysts: MZE782 PKU topline pushed to 2027 and CKD Phase 2 start to H1 2027, leaving only HORIZON's three 10–15 patient cohorts in late-2026/early-2027. $27.18 close (2026-08-14), RSI 38.3, no dated event inside 30 days — the binary is now a 2027 event. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.50 forfeits the April 2026 placement level and the post-HORIZON base; secondarily, a Q3 print (~Nov 2026) that pushes HORIZON all-cohort data out of the guided late-2026/early-2027 window would confirm the timeline slip. --- ### MCHP — Microchip Technology Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCHP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors, Industrial power & grid, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI-data-center re-rating leg is unwinding — round-tripped from the $105.91 May ATH to the ~$84 50-day EMA under an unrebutted J Capital short thesis and a 2026-07-13 TD Cowen PT cut to $90; only the cyclical MCU/industrial recovery (~93% of revenue) stays intact into the ~2026-08-04 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 loses the July low and 50-day EMA, confirming the failed post-guidance breakout and opening the 200-day near $74; separately, a DCS CY2026 guide cut below ~$500M or DCS YoY under +50% at the ~2026-08-04 print kills the re-rating leg. --- ### MDB — MongoDB, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MDB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Atlas re-acceleration (+29.4% YoY, record $117M seq add; Q1 FY27, 2026-05-28) is intact, but the +18.5% post-print breakout fully round-tripped from $444.72 to a $294.10 close as the AI-software theme sold on margin-timing fear. Sell-side is re-warming (Truist $400 7/9, Needham $430 7/10); narrative accelerating, structure repairing but unconfirmed — see a base and $340 reclaim before chasing. Kill line: A weekly close below $290 loses the late-June swing low and confirms the failed breakout extending into a downtrend with no base; reinforced if the AI-enterprise-software theme flips to saturated on Oracle/peer de-rating. --- ### MEDP — Medpace Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEDP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Bookings-inflection leg (Q2 awards $795.7M, +28.2% YoY, book-to-bill 1.13x, FY26 guides raised 2026-07-22) is intact on fundamentals but stalled on the tape: the $620.59 high faded to a $578.5 close on 2026-08-14, RSI 45, while the CEO sold 23,144 shares for $13.98M into $601–605 on 08-10/11. Nothing resolves before the est. late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $560 fills the 2026-07-22 earnings gap and ends the post-print leg; secondary — net book-to-bill printing under 1.10x at the Q3 report (est. late Oct), or the theme flipping to saturated. --- ### MESO — Mesoblast Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MESO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Platform-inflection story re-accelerated on operational news rather than data: the 2026-08-17 last-patient-treated release for the 350-patient CLBP Phase 3 carried the ADR from $15.60 (08-14) to $17.00 (08-21), reclaiming the July shelf with RSI 68.8. The revenue base is real — US$115M FY2026 Ryoncil, US$103M cash — but the genuine binary is a mid-CY2027 readout and the next 30 days hold only an estimated annual-report filing. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 gives back the mid-July breakout shelf and returns price to the pre-revenue June range; an equity raise printed into this strength, or the ~2026-08-31 annual report passing with price still capped by the 2026-07-15 high of $18.07, would confirm the leg is a range trade rather than a re-rate. --- ### MGM — MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: M&A & special situations, Prediction markets & betting, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Take-private process went live: WSJ reported substantive Diller talks 2026-07-10, MGM seated a special committee mid-July, and the board reportedly views $48.30 as too low — so the trade is now a bump handicap, not a growth story. At ~$46.91 (2026-07-16) that is ~3% to the bid, ~11% to Macquarie's $52, against ~20% deal-break air. Capped arb. Kill line: A daily close below $44 breaks the arb band that has held since the 2026-06-01 bid and confirms the ~20% path to the high-$30s undisturbed shelf; secondarily, a special-committee rejection or Diller withdrawal without a topping bid ends the setup regardless of price. --- ### MKSI — MKS Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKSI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Operating leg accelerating into a de-rating tape: Q2 (2026-08-05) beat at $1.248B revenue / $3.30 adj EPS, Q3 guide $1.310–1.390B tops the $1.243B Street, leverage down to 3.0x — and the stock still fell 4.49% on the print and sits 31.4% below the $444.80 high. Picks-and-shovels narrative now saturated, with no company binary until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $280 (decisively beneath the May shelf the July round-trip returned to); secondarily, Q3 revenue under the $1.310B guide floor, or net leverage stalling at or above 3.0x at the Q3 print. --- ### MKTX — MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Prediction markets & betting, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: ICE's $167.00 all-cash agreement (signed 2026-07-30) has fully converted MKTX into a spread instrument, and the spread has drifted wider: $167.00 less the 2026-08-21 close of $162.11 leaves $4.89 gross against an H1 2027 guided close. Three sell-side targets collapsed to exactly $167 between 07-31 and 08-11; with no merger proxy on file yet, HSR is the only live variable. Kill line: A daily close below $155 widens the gap to the $167.00 cash price to $12.00 — completion odds repricing rather than a longer clock. Secondary condition: an HSR second request disclosed before the preliminary merger proxy is filed. --- ### MMYT — MakeMyTrip Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMYT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation, Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: MakeMyTrip's mid-year recovery bounce has stalled: after reclaiming the 200-day near $55, MMYT rolled back to ~$49, below both the 50- and 200-day, straight into an August 3 Q1 FY2027 print where consensus models EPS down ~76% YoY on ~137x trailing earnings. A maturing India-OTA leader where the binary print, not the chart, sets the next leg — the setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 loses the 50-day and the last recovery shelf, dropping the bounce back into the $33–46 base; a soft August 3 Q1 FY2027 print confirming deeper take-rate/margin compression and stalled air-ticketing flips the theme from recovery to decelerating. --- ### MNPR — Monopar Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MNPR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Squeeze & momentum setups, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: New 52-week high at $123.84 printed and sold — the 2026-08-21 close was $107.72, 13.0% under it, RSI 46.0, on no company news. The rolling NDA clock started 2026-07-22 is live but still undated, and the sell-side finished repricing in mid-August at a $126.31 consensus target. Nothing scheduled resolves inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 round-trips the entire post-2026-07-22 rolling-NDA leg and loses the $105.00 pre-June 52-week high; secondary breaks are the submission still incomplete at the Q3 print (~2026-11-12, est.), an FDA refuse-to-file, or an equity offering priced near record levels. --- ### MNTN — MNTN, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MNTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-IPO CTV adtech re-rating on a profitability crossover: Q2 (2026-08-04) delivered $82.5M revenue +21% YoY, 80% gross margin, $6.7M GAAP net income vs a $26.2M loss, and a $100M buyback. Shares +53.9% in three months into a 91.4 RSI while Citi, Evercore and Tigress all cut targets. 2026-09-08 Citi TMT is the only dated event before the November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 retraces the post-Q2 August advance and breaks the profitability-crossover re-rating; a Q3 print at or under the $86M low end of guidance, or broker targets cut to marks at/below spot, would confirm it. --- ### MOD — Modine Manufacturing Co URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: Operating story still compounding — Data Centers sales $348.6M (+90% YoY) at the 2026-07-29 Q1 FY27 print, FY27 guide affirmed — but the tape broke: the 2026-08-14 close of $209.50 lost the $210 line, -31.7% from the $306.89 high. The unresolved question is margin, with DC gross margin down 960bps to 20.2%, and nothing dated resolves it before the late-October print. Kill line: A weekly close below $195 extends the failed-breakout leg past the depth of the 2024 datacenter drawdown in this name. Secondary: the FY27 +20–35% sales or $650M–$680M adjusted EBITDA guide being cut at the Q2 FY27 print (~2026-10-28, est.). --- ### MOH — Molina Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Medicaid-trough thesis passed its 2026-07-22 test (FY26 adjusted EPS guided to ≥$5.25), but the price leg expressing it broke: the week ending 2026-08-21 closed $200.29, under the $205 floor of the late-June breakout gap. What is left is management's >$10 2027 earnings-power framing against a Hold-heavy sell-side whose mean target ($202.44, 2026-08-18) sits at the market, with no dated company event until the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $188 takes out the pre-breakout $188–192 shelf and ends the trough-recovery leg. Secondary: a Q3 print (~2026-10-22 est.) guiding FY26 adjusted EPS back under $5.25 or lifting the 92.6% consolidated MCR guide. --- ### MOV — Movado Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Tariff-relief leg is dead (Section 301 put Switzerland in a 12.5% band with no expiry on 2026-07-24); what's left is the Q1 margin re-rate (GM 57.3%, +320bp) and one date. Company confirmed 2026-08-19 that Q2 FY2027 prints before the open on 2026-08-26 — and the tape goes in at RSI(14) 21.4, 12.5% under the $39.78 high. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 loses the $31–33 shelf left by the 2026-05-27 earnings gap and negates the margin re-rate structure. Secondary: the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 report printing gross margin under 57.3% with constant-currency growth at or below zero and FY2027 guidance still withdrawn. --- ### MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI chips & memory, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets after the move. Saturated narrative, no company catalyst until the ~Nov Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $285 confirms the July–August distribution — price would then sit more than 10% under the $319.76 52-week high, with the refining-margin theme already saturated and no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### MPWR — Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPWR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Fundamentals still accelerating (Q2 rev $980.6M vs $890–910M guide; Q3 guided $1,140–1,160M vs ~$982M consensus) but the tape has fully retraced the print: a 2026-08-18 shareholder-investigation headline took the stock down 6.86% to $1,318.86, and the 2026-08-21 close of $1,316.28 is sitting on the 2026-06-26 pivot low of $1,313.32. NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 result is the nearest driver. Kill line: A weekly close below $1,313 forfeits the 2026-06-26 pivot low and the post-print base, opening the ~$1,200 shelf. Secondary: NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 print passing without MPWR recovering the $1,415.99 gap origin, or Enterprise Data declining sequentially at the ~2026-10-29 Q3 report. --- ### MRAM — Everspin Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: AI chips & memory, Squeeze & momentum setups, AI datacenter infrastructure, Space economy Thesis: Sympathy bid off the Micron-led memory supercycle and Russell 2000 inclusion floored the post-parabola markdown in the low-$20s, but the ~2026-07-28 Q2 print is now the binary: Everspin must show a non-casino datacenter/AI design win or the markdown resumes toward the $14–18 analyst cluster. Weakest-exposed, most-shorted memory name at ~1,800x earnings. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 forfeits the low-$20s base and 50-day-MA shelf held since early June, reopening the $14–$18 analyst-target cluster as the markdown resumes; a Q2 print (~2026-07-28) that reaffirms the ~$60M run-rate with no datacenter/AI design win removes the sympathy bid. --- ### MRVI — Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Leg has flipped from operating leverage to mRNA-supplier read-through: Moderna's 2026-08-19 Phase 3 cancer-vaccine data took MRVI +25.8% in one session and to an $8.64 52-week-high close by 2026-08-21 with RSI 79.8 — while FY26 revenue guidance of $205–215M is unchanged and nothing company-specific tests it until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.24 forfeits the ledge the 2026-08-19 gap cleared (the prior 52-week high) and turns the read-through into a round trip toward the unfilled $5.74–$6.72 zone; secondary confirmation would be the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print reaffirming or narrowing the $205–215M FY26 revenue range with no cancer-vaccine order commentary. --- ### MSFT — Microsoft Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSFT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: AI-capex derating still in control and now colliding with a hostile print tape: Alphabet lost ~$294B on 2026-07-24 punished purely for AI spend, Tesla/Intel/Google all sold post-earnings, and MSFT reports Q4 FY26 on 2026-07-29 AMC below its lost $400 shelf and ~$414 200-day. No accelerating leg to buy — the print is a binary landmine, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $356 breaks the post-June demand pocket (52-week low $349.20 just beneath) and opens $300–$340; the stand-aside only turns constructive on a daily reclaim and hold above $455 on expanding volume, with the 2026-07-29 Q4 print the event that decides which side resolves. --- ### MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Housing-rebound-on-rate-cuts trade that carried MTH to a $85.38 52-week high has reversed: it lost the $75 June breakout shelf to $74.17 (-4.2% on 7/17) as mortgages held at 6.49% and Zelman capitulated to Neutral (7/7). Fundamentals still rolling over (Q1 EPS -51%, GM 22%→17.5%) into the 7/29 binary print — momentum broken, not a fresh long. Kill line: A weekly close below $72 confirms the June breakout shelf ($75) is fully lost and opens the low-$60s toward GF Value $68.99 and the 52-week low $58.03; secondary: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print showing gross margin compressing below 17.5% with orders down again YoY. --- ### MTRN — Materion Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, AI chips & memory, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Beryllium critical-materials scarcity narrative still building, but the parabola cracked: a new ATH of $298.76 in early July gave way to a 5.6% reversal on 2026-07-07 to $247.20, now ~$258 and still ~9% above KeyBanc's $237 top target. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the next binary; the current setup is a post-blowoff mean-reversion within an accelerating theme. Kill line: A weekly close below $237 (loses KeyBanc's top-target shelf and the early-June breakout base) points price toward the 200-day; a 2026-08-05 Q2 print showing the record backlog rolling over quarter-over-quarter would confirm the top. --- ### MTSI — MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTSI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI optical-interconnect arms-dealer with fundamentals still accelerating (FY26 DC growth guide >60%, Q3 guide $331-339M) but a July-broken chart: ~36% off the $418.90 high to ~$267 on the semi selloff, Russell Value index removal, and SATCOM oversupply worry. Broken structure into the 2026-07-30 earnings binary — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $255 loses the July capitulation low and turns the pullback into a trend break. Secondary: a Q3 print (2026-07-30) that cuts FY26 Data Center growth back below 60%, SATCOM oversupply confirmed as demand-side, or optical peers COHR/CRDO/ALAB losing their 50-days together (theme → saturated). --- ### MTW — The Manitowoc Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Order-cycle plus trade-protection plus deleveraging leg from the 2026-08-06 guidance raise is still working but is now maturing: price extended to a $20.87 52-week high while the two post-print analyst actions (Barclays $16, Wells Fargo $12) kept Underweight ratings below spot, and no company catalyst lands before the Q3 print. 2026-08-26 conference is the only near-term management appearance. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 gives back most of the 2026-08-06 guidance-raise repricing and breaks the 2026-08-07 gap; secondary condition is a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) with book-to-bill under 1.0 or backlog back below $1.0B after the $1,050.1M Q2 mark. --- ### MXL — MaxLinear, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: The $77 shelf from the 2026-07-23 beat-and-raise has broken: the 2026-08-21 close of $66.61 is 48.0% below the $128.03 high, after Seendripu family trusts sold or filed to sell ~$50M of stock between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-17. The revenue leg still compounds ($210–220M Q3 guide); the price leg is being supplied into. Nothing dated resolves it before the ~2026-10-22 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 puts price under the entire post-Q2-print distribution zone including the early-August $67 area, marking a trending decline rather than a base; secondary break is Q3 revenue landing inside rather than above the $210–220M guide, or the 2026 optical data-center range trimmed from $210–230M at the ~2026-10-22 print. --- ### MYE — Myers Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-27 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Legacy plastics maker re-rated ~2.4x on a "Focused Transformation" — MTS distribution arm in discontinued ops, capital concentrated behind Signature/MegaDeck composite matting (Infrastructure orders +130% YoY, Q1 adj EPS $0.44 vs $0.28). Narrative is real; the tape topped 2026-07-01 at $35.75 and has stalled at $31 into a 2026-07-30 print carrying resin-cost margin risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 breaks the post-spike consolidation shelf and opens the gap to the $27 June breakout base; a 2026-07-30 print with adjusted gross margin below the 34.7% Q1 level on resin costs, absent offsetting Infrastructure order growth, confirms the top. --- ### MYGN — Myriad Genetics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Legacy hereditary-cancer testing house executing a diagnostics pivot; shares +40% off the June $3.99 base as Prolaris+AI launched (May 26) and Precise MRD colorectal/renal was pulled forward to Q3. Structure has repaired but now consolidates into a binary Aug 4 Q2 print, with the Street Hold-rated and price already at its consensus target. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.75 breaks the July $5.75–$6.26 consolidation shelf and voids the recovery leg, re-exposing the $4.00 June base; secondarily, a soft Aug 4 Q2 print that fails the guided 2H>1H acceleration would confirm the pivot has not yet inflected. --- ### NABL — N-able, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NABL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Thesis: The cyber-pivot re-rating leg was withdrawn by the company's own 2026-08-10 guidance and nothing since has put it back: ARR fell sequentially to $544.5M, FY26 revenue cut to $539–542M, FY26 ARR to $562–565M. The bounce to $3.63 (2026-08-21) only carries price back into the reset target band of $3.65–$4.00; nothing checkable resolves before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.19 loses the post-print shelf set on 2026-08-10 and opens the $2.92 base low; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.) with revenue under the guided $134.5M floor, or a second consecutive sequential ARR decline from $544.5M. --- ### NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium — lands in ~3 trading days as binary risk. maturing and largely priced; a fresh long buys peak news into a coin-flip. The setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 loses the prior breakout shelf and 20-EMA support zone and confirms the war premium is unwinding; a WTI weekly close under $80 or a verified US–Iran ceasefire headline is the fundamental accelerant toward a $55–70 mean-reversion for this ~2x-beta driller. --- ### NCLH — Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NCLH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The June oil re-rating is over: the 2026-07-30 print cut FY26 net yield to ~-5% cc and EPS to ~$1.50 (second cut after 06-03), shares -8.9%, Morgan Stanley to $13. What is left is an Elliott governance/self-help story — 5 new directors since 03-31, stake raised to 14.7M shares per the 08-14 13F — with no price confirmation and no dated catalyst before the ~11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 breaks the post-print $18–19 shelf, taking out Bernstein's 06-03 initiation target and Jefferies' 07-17 target toward the UBS $17 / Goldman $16 / Morgan Stanley $13 stack. Secondary: the 2026-09-30 Elliott director deadline passing with no appointment named. --- ### NEO — NeoGenomics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Oncology-dx turnaround accelerating — NGS +26%, PTEN IHC CDx (first FDA IHC companion dx in prostate, paired to AZ's TRUQAP) launched Jul 9, and TD Cowen $14→$19 / BofA $11→$16 on Jul 13 lifted consensus to ~$15.67, back above spot. But Q2 moved forward to Jul 28 after the close: RSI ~74 within 6% of the $15.57 high makes a fresh chase a guidance bet, not a structure bet. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.70 forfeits the June breakout above the prior $13.74 all-time high and the $14.16 convertible conversion level, turning the move into a failed extension; secondarily, a 2026-07-28 Q2 print with NGS growth decelerating below ~20% YoY or an unchanged $797M–$803M full-year guide confirms the break. --- ### NEXA — Nexa Resources S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEXA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-09 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Emerging markets Thesis: Cyclical zinc-recovery confirmed and fully priced: Q1 EBITDA +126% YoY and Aripuanã's record 13kt ramp drove a run to the $16.89 high, but the equity now chops $12–13 while LME zinc printed a fresh 2026 high near US$3,622 — a bearish divergence. Three July PT raises kept ratings at Neutral/Underperform; no Buy re-rate. Strength leg spent; the setup does not clear without an $11–12 base or a rating upgrade. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 loses the April breakout base and confirms a cyclical top; reinforced if LME zinc 3M sustains under US$3,200/t or the Q2 production report shows Aripuanã zinc regressing below the Q1 record of 13,000t. --- ### NKE — Nike, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: The post-Q4 base failed: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $40.73 took out the $41.35 low that framed the July read, and JPMorgan's 2026-08-04 cut to Underweight (PT $47→$40, EPS ~20% below consensus) turned two quarters of target-trimming into an outright downgrade. The legacy-pivot value story is intact on paper; tape and revisions both point down into the 2026-09-24 Q1 FY2027 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 loses the August shelf and JPMorgan's 2026-08-04 target level together, leaving no reference support from this cycle; secondarily, the 2026-09-24 Q1 FY2027 print passing without a guidance raise or an upgrade cluster leaves the revision downtrend intact. --- ### NOK — Nokia Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NOK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: AI-networking legacy re-rate extending on a harder catalyst leg — first commercial AI-RAN platform with Nvidia (07-15) plus Taiwan Mobile, Orange Belgium and NestAI defense wins. Theme accelerating, but the 2026-07-23 pre-open Q2 print is a binary ~3 trading days out; chasing near $11.56 into it is poor risk/reward. The setup does not clear without the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 loses the late-May breakout shelf and rising 20-week EMA; confirmed by a Q2 print (2026-07-23) with Network Infrastructure/data-center revenue flat-to-down YoY, or the theme flipping to saturated as political/retail attention peaks without revenue follow-through. --- ### NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-09 Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-07-21 beat-and-raise has round-tripped: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $31.71 is under the $32 post-print shelf, BMO cut to Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and the CFO sold 100,000 shares into $30.74–$32.12 on Aug 12–13. Operations still compound (+33% Q2 revenue), but the fresh-attention leg is spent and nothing is dated before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the $30.74–$32.12 band held through mid-August and puts the 2026-05-13 follow-on price of $27.50 back in play; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-21, est.) that leaves the FY2026 $199M guide unraised, or no weekly close back above $32 before it, confirms the re-rating has stalled. --- ### NSIT — Insight Enterprises, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, GPU cloud & neoclouds Thesis: Genuine VAR margin-mix turnaround (Q1 GM +240bps, cloud GP +35%) but a derivative AI tag: hardware GP guided flat, sales +1%. Range-bound $102–123 since the early-June rejection; ~$110 already sits above the ~$103 street target with a 50<200 death cross intact. Not accelerating — a stand-aside until it reclaims $123 or bases lower into the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 breaks the recovery base and the mid-June floor, confirming the value-trap mean-reversion path; a second flat-hardware-GP guide at the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print with no services re-acceleration reinforces it. --- ### NUTX — Nutex Health Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: Managed care & health services, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Re-rating leg has stalled: NUTX closed $162.98 on 2026-07-17 after five straight down days, ~20% off the $204.00 high, giving back the June breakout that B. Riley's 2026-06-26 Buy/$290 initiation topped out. A $55.0M true-up of 18,950 ineligible IDR claims plus a live SEC probe of the same revenue line means the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary. The theme is maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $150 forfeits the spring base and the June breakout structure, reclassifying the March-to-June move as a completed squeeze. Secondary: a second true-up of ineligible IDR claims, a disclosed collection rate under 80%, or any SEC enforcement action on arbitration revenue. --- ### NUVL — Nuvalent, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUVL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Closed, not pending: GSK completed the $124 all-cash acquisition on 2026-07-15 after 91.3% of shares were tendered by the 2026-07-14 expiry; trading was suspended 2026-07-15 and Form 25 delisting requested. No US-listed NUVL equity remains — the narrative is dead and the only residual is takeout read-through to peer resistance-mutant NSCLC names. Kill line: A daily close below $124 on a US venue would signal a failure of the $124 cash payment or the Section 251(h) merger; with completion announced 2026-07-15, trading suspended and Form 25 requested, no NUVL close can print, so the condition cannot be met and the read is closed. --- ### NVEC — NVE Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVEC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, Physical AI & robotics, Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: One quarter re-rated the name — revenue +81% to $11.03M, gross margin 81.3% (2026-07-22) — and nothing has confirmed it since. No company datapoint arrives before the ~2026-10-21 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 surrenders the 2026-07-23 gap shelf and ends the inflection leg; secondarily, Q2 FY2027 product sales (~2026-10-21 est.) printing under the $10.73M June-quarter level would recast that quarter as a pull-forward. --- ### NWL — Newell Brands Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Turnaround inflection confirmed: 7/31 Q2 beat ($0.42 vs $0.20 est) plus first core-sales growth in 4+ years (+2.3%), squeezed 21.65% short float and re-rated the sell-side. But the entire FY guide raise ($0.73–0.77 from $0.56–0.60) is 2025 IEEPA tariff refunds, three of four post-print targets sit at/below the 8/14 close of $6.24, and no catalyst lands before the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.50 gives back the 2026-07-31 earnings gap and ends the post-print re-rating leg; secondarily, a Q3 print in late October showing core sales back in decline or the FY26 EPS range trimmed toward the underlying $0.56–$0.60. --- ### NWPX — NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy steel-pipe maker re-rated into a water-infrastructure + precast roll-up on a record $373M WTS backlog, an ~83% Q1 beat, and the Permalok RBJ field win. Narrative intact but the setup is extended — last near $148, ~35% above the ~$109 consensus PT at all-time highs, now inside the blackout window ahead of the ~Aug 5 Q2 print. Fresh entries chase a binary at the high. Kill line: A weekly close below $120 forfeits the early-June breakout shelf (~$122–128) and the rising trend; secondary break if the ~Aug 5 Q2 print shows WTS backlog rolling over beneath the $373M Q1 record or municipal funding shifts away from steel/concrete pipe. --- ### NXPI — NXP Semiconductors N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The 2026-07-28 beat-and-raise still is not being paid for: the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $225.56 held the $225 break line by 56 cents, and the week's damage came from the 30-year Treasury at 5.33% (19-year high), not from analog demand. Structure broken, no company catalyst until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $220 fails the shelf the 2026-08-21 close defended and reopens the spring low area near $183 on the unadjusted series; secondary, the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing inside the guided $3.65–3.85B and still trading lower, repeating 2026-07-28. --- ### OABI — OmniAb, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OABI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Milestone-and-royalty flywheel turned visible: Q2 revenue $13.415M vs $4.693M consensus (2026-08-06) plus a Lilly ion-channel deal worth up to $370M in milestones (2026-08-17) took closes from $1.96 to $4.33 in thirteen sessions. RSI(14) 97.6 at a 52-week high with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $3.38 loses the 2026-08-10→08-14 post-earnings shelf and gives back the entire Lilly-deal advance; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) with no further FY guidance raise and license/milestone revenue reverting toward the sub-$4M quarterly pattern of 2025. --- ### ODD — ODDITY Tech Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Compounder narrative is dead (Q1 revenue -26%, first orders -50%) and the drift continued on no news at all: $14.12 on 2026-08-07 to $13.22 on 2026-08-21, now sitting on the $13 shelf. The 2026-09-09 pre-market Q2 print is the only dated event and the whole binary — first-order trend, CPA direction, and whether the FY2026 positive-adjusted-EBITDA guide survives. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 abandons the post-crash shelf under the 2026-08-21 close of $13.22 and re-opens the $9.25 area; secondary condition: the 2026-09-09 Q2 print shows first orders still down more than 40% YoY with CPA unimproved, or the FY2026 positive-adjusted-EBITDA guide is withdrawn. --- ### ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODFL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-03 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Freight-cycle recovery in the top-margin LTL name is drawing a broadening upgrade cluster now printing above spot (Stifel $256 Jul 21, Truist $250 Jul 15, RJ $241 Jul 13), but growth is still rate and mix with tons/day negative. The 2026-07-29 pre-market Q2 print is the binary on whether volume finally confirms; the setup does not clear ahead of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $220 loses the rising 50-day and fills the June 10 Amazon gap; secondary, a July 29 Q2 print with LTL tons/day still negative while ex-fuel rev/cwt decelerates under +5% — the yield-led recovery breaking with no volume to replace it. --- ### OEC — Orion S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OEC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Deep-cyclical carbon black where the 2024–25 tire-restock leg already failed (-32.5% from the $10.72 52-week high). What is left is a trough-and-deleverage read: Q2 2026 adj. EBITDA $58.2M (+26% sequential, -15% YoY), FY26 guide reaffirmed at $170–210M against $961M net debt and 4.4x leverage. Nothing scheduled inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 (2026-08-07 close was $7.24) prices FY26 beneath the reaffirmed $170M adjusted-EBITDA floor; secondary: that band cut or net leverage printing above 4.4x at the Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### OFIX — Orthofix Medical Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OFIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The CMS-reversal re-rate has fully round-tripped: after the 2026-07-02 rate restoration and a 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise, OFIX closed $10.01 on 2026-08-21 — below where it traded on the 2026-05-21 guidance-cut 8-K — with RSI(14) at 22.8 and two sell-side targets cut to $13. The narrative's own catalysts fired and paid nothing; nothing dated until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.80 loses the $10 handle intact at the 2026-08-21 close of $10.01 and completes the retrace of the July CMS-reversal advance; secondary, a ~2026-11-04 Q3 print with adjusted EBITDA below the year-ago $20.6M and free cash flow still negative on top of $(47.1)M for the six months. --- ### OGN — Organon & Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Deal-pinned arb, now purely regulatory: the $14.00 all-cash Sun Pharma offer was approved by holders 2026-07-23 and the 2026-08-21 close of $13.75 leaves $0.25, ~1.8% gross, into a stated early-2027 close. Upside is capped by contract; a break reprices toward the $6.36–$6.90 unaffected area. RSI 81.8 at the 52-week high is spread compression, not demand. Kill line: A daily close below $13.00 breaks the post-vote shelf and widens the gross spread past 7% on a shareholder-approved, fully financed deal; secondary confirmation would be an 8-K disclosing termination, an outside-date or price amendment, a second-phase non-US competition review, or a CFIUS mitigation agreement — repricing toward the $6.36–$6.90 unaffected area. --- ### OLPX — Olaplex Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OLPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Closed by event and now confirmed from the buyer's side: Henkel's all-cash takeout completed 2026-07-07 at $2.06 per share, Nasdaq delisting and a Form 15-12G followed, and Henkel's 2026-08-06 half-year report carries no brand-level Olaplex disclosure beyond a ~€370M annual-sales line. Last bar was $2.07 on 2026-07-06. No listed security, no float, no catalyst — a historical entry, not a candidate. Kill line: No Henkel communication through the 2026-08-06 half-year report re-lists the brand, so the binary has come and gone with nothing left to grade. --- ### OMER — Omeros Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OMER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-print launch-ramp narrative still accelerating on fundamentals — Q2 net sales $28.5M vs $12.7M consensus (2026-08-12), NTAP effective 2026-10-01 — but the shares added 12.1% from the 2026-08-14 close of $17.19 to $19.27 on 2026-08-21 with no dated company disclosure in between, RSI(14) at 92.0 and an empty calendar for 39 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.00 hands back the entire post-print advance and puts the launch-ramp re-rating in question ($13.00 would fully retrace the 2026-08-13 earnings gap). Secondarily, Q3 2026 net product sales at or below the $28.5M Q2 level while ordering accounts grow past 73. --- ### ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The AI-power re-rate is unwinding, not consolidating: ON closed $87.37 on 7/17, below the 6/26 Synaptics deal-gap floor, with targets cut twice in three weeks (TD Cowen to $95 on 7/13, Mizuho to $125 on 7/1). Merger-arb supply plus a fixed 1.350 exchange ratio caps rallies until the 2026-08-03 Q2 print resets the story. Kill line: A weekly close below $84 confirms the post-deal unwind is extending with no base formed off the July shelf; secondary: the 2026-08-03 Q2 print showing AI data-center revenue off the guided double-YoY pace, or gross margin landing under the 38% guide floor. --- ### ONDS — Ondas Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONDS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-13) beat on revenue — $83.772M vs $67.973M — and missed on EPS at $(0.19) vs $(0.05); stock fell 7%. Section 232 drone tariffs signed the same day (effective 2026-09-03) rallied the whole basket, and ONDS still closed 2026-08-14 at $9.24, 34% under the $14.01 52-week closing high. Peak headline flow, thin new bid, 529.8M shares outstanding. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.24 — the 2026-08-14 close, giving back the Section 232 tariff-proclamation week — confirms distribution through the theme's best headline flow. Secondary: the 2026-09-03 tariff effective date passing with no ONDS order announcement, or a registration/ATM lifting the count above 529.8M shares. --- ### OOMA — Ooma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OOMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI enterprise software, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Legacy residential VoIP re-rating into an SMB cloud-comms roll-up, now pinned 0.5% under the $22.14 52-week high going into the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print — the first quarter testing whether the December 2025 acquired base retains at the ~31% business-growth rate the $326.0–328.5M FY2027 guide assumes. Published targets top out at $24.00 (Benchmark, 2026-08-17), so the print sets the next leg, not the tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $20.00 gives back the entire approach to the $22.14 52-week high; secondary condition is the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print passing without a raise to the $326.0–328.5M FY2027 revenue range. --- ### OPEN — Opendoor Technologies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-16 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Early-July retail squeeze is broken: OPEN lost the $4.88 insider shelf and $4.50 base, fell ~12% to $3.88 on 2026-07-24 on a technical breakdown plus fresh housing weakness, into an Aug 4 Q2 print. A rolled-over meme trading into an earnings binary — falling-knife territory, not a fresh entry. Kill line: A daily close below $3.50 confirms the broken squeeze and opens the path toward the $2.65 analyst target; a weak or dilutive 2026-08-04 Q2 print seals the downtrend. Reclaiming $4.50–$4.88 on volume would negate the breakdown. --- ### OPI — Office Properties Income Trust Common shares of beneficial interest URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: First post-reorg print landed 2026-08-05: 77.9% leased, $1.707B debt, the book equity, no dividend. The binary passed without breaking the tape — The narrative has matured from deleveraging re-rate into asset-sale arithmetic with insider supply on the offer. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 gives up the entire July–August post-reorg advance and the shelf built around the 2026-08-05 print; secondarily, further Redwood/Helix Form 4 or 13D/A selling paired with a Q3 portfolio leased rate under 77.9%. --- ### ORIC — Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORIC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: mCRPC PRC2 story de-risked as rinzimetostat enters registrational Phase 3 (Himalayas-1, 2026-07-14) with Bayer supplying NUBEQA and a J&J-backed enozertinib lung program behind it. But pivotal data is 2028+, so the only near-term mover is undated enozertinib 2H-2026 readouts. Range-bound $7–15 tape; build on weakness, not a breakout chase at $10.73. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 gives back the post-Phase-3-initiation advance and re-enters the lower half of the 52-week range; a disappointing enozertinib 2H-2026 readout or a pre-Phase-3 capital raise would confirm the break. --- ### OTEX — Open Text Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OTEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: FY27 is guided as a reinvestment year under a CEO seated 2026-04-20: revenue $5.135–5.185B versus FY26's $5.246B, adjusted EBITDA margin 32–33% versus 36.3%. The 10%-of-float buyback opened 2026-08-12; the shares closed $24.66 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) at 36.7, down from 58.7 on 2026-08-07. Momentum has faded while the shelf holds; no earnings until ~2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.50 breaks the flat shelf that survived the 2026-08-06 guidance reset; a secondary break would be the Q1 FY27 report (~2026-11-04) trimming the $5.135–5.185B FY27 revenue range or core cloud printing under the guided 8% constant-currency floor. --- ### OTLY — Oatly Group AB URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OTLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Thesis: The 2026-07-22 guidance doubling (FY constant-currency growth 8–10% from 3–5%) is now a month old with no follow-on news; RSI(14) reset from 71.0 on 2026-08-07 to 43.7 on 2026-08-21 while price held, leaving a $13.03–$13.15 shelf. Nothing company-scheduled before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print, against $517.8M borrowings, $44.6M cash and a $462.7M market cap. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.00 removes the August 2026 shelf (closes of $13.035 on 2026-08-11 and $13.150 on 2026-08-12), the only floor the post-guidance advance built; secondarily, a Q3 2026 print (~2026-10-28, est.) walking FY constant-currency growth back toward 3–5% or narrowing adjusted EBITDA below $25M. --- ### OUST — Ouster, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OUST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, Defense & aerospace, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Squeeze leg broke: +43% in four sessions to a $63.79 high, then management priced 3.62M shares at $55.22 (~8% discount) and closed ~$191.9M net on 2026-07-06. Price round-tripped to $37.04, under the 20- and 50-day and under the $49 average target. Narrative intact, chart is not; Q2 lands 2026-08-06 with no repaired base. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 loses the July capitulation low and confirms the June–July sequence as a distribution top, opening a retest of the rising 200-day near $28. Secondary: a Q2 print on 2026-08-06 with product revenue under the ~$49.5M low end, gross margin below the 35–40% guide, or fresh ATM issuance. --- ### P — Everpure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/P/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Hyperscaler design-win re-rating has stalled: 52-week high $118.16 on 2026-08-14, then a 2026-08-21 close of $108.55 with RSI(14) still 79.5 while TD Cowen ($170) and Wedbush ($127) raised targets into the fall. The 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print carries a 15.77% implied move — the widest of Nvidia week — and is where fiscal-2028 revenue either gets a number or doesn't. Kill line: A weekly close below $108 — Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-10 target and the floor of the seven raised targets — unwinds the 2026-08-10 design-win repricing; the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $108.55 held it by 0.5%. Secondary: the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print leaving FY2027 revenue at $4.41B–$4.51B with the hyperscaler agreement still unquantified. --- ### PANL — Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-03 Themes: Freight & logistics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Dry-bulk recovery is in the P&L but not the tape: Q1 2026 (2026-05-11) adjusted EBITDA +70% YoY to $25.2M on $15,252/day TCE, yet the stock closed $7.42 on 2026-08-07, 20.1% under the $9.29 52-week high. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the binary that resolves which side is right. Kill line: A daily close below $7.00 after the 2026-08-10 Q2 print (gives back the range held into it from the 2026-08-07 close of $7.42); secondary condition, the Baltic Dry Index slipping back under its 2026-07-14 level, dating the August rate strength as weather-driven. --- ### PARR — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PARR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Record diesel cracks (above $100/bbl mid-August 2026) met a lower tape: the 2026-08-21 close of $79.03 sits 8.1% under the $86.03 high while the company's own July refining index printed $31.34/bbl versus a ~$33 Q2 average. Late-cycle — the driver is setting records the equity no longer prices. No company catalyst before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 breaks the post-Q2 consolidation floor (2026-08-04 after-hours low $76.82); a further weekly close under the 2026-07-13 shelf at $71.25 ends the Hormuz-premium leg. Secondary condition: the consolidated refining index printing at or under July's $31.34/bbl at the next call. --- ### PATH — UiPath, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PATH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: RPA vendor left for dead, re-cast as the orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents: first GAAP operating profit ($28M, Q1 FY27 reported 2026-05-28) plus the 2026-08-19 Maestro Flow launch drove +50% in three months to a $16.39 close, now above the ~$13.25 consensus target. The 2026-09-03 Q2 print is the binary — guidance already implies net new ARR falling from $49M to $28–33M. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 surrenders the bulk of the post-2026-05-28 re-rating and puts the shares back inside the $12–17 sell-side target band; secondary, a 2026-09-03 Q2 print with net new ARR at or under the ~$33M implied by guidance and no raise to the $2.058–2.063B FY2027 ARR range. --- ### PAY — Paymentus Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-29 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Beaten-down bill-pay compounder: Q1 2026 revenue +30.2% YoY yet shares carved a $20.11 June 52-week low on margin-mix fear. Now ~40% off that low into a binary ~Aug-4 Q2 print — the read is a recovering base, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.00 surrenders the June-low recovery base near $20.11 and reopens the downtrend; a second contribution-margin step-down on the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print would confirm the mix-shift bear case. --- ### PAYC — Paycom Software, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Operating-leverage re-rating on a de-rated HCM name is still working, but the fuel is two weeks stale: since the 2026-08-06/07 target raises the shares added 6.6% to $229.07 (2026-08-21) on no new company datapoint, RSI(14) 83.7, 1.1% under the 52-week high, and above the ~$226.90 aggregated target. Nothing dated tests growth before the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $210 (surrenders the post-Q2 advance and puts price back under the $210 median of the nine targets raised 2026-08-06/07); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) that leaves the 8–9% FY26 recurring-revenue guide unchanged-to-lower or shows adjusted EBITDA margin at or below Q2's 44.2%. --- ### PAYO — Payoneer Global Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Pure merger-arb, now fully scheduled: HSR early termination granted 2026-07-28 and the 2026-08-11 definitive proxy set the shareholder vote for 2026-09-14, yet the 2026-08-14 close of $7.13 still sits $0.27 under Nuvei's $7.40 all-cash offer. Upside is contractually capped over a mid-2027 close guide, against ~28% of air to the $5.14 pre-rumor level. Kill line: A daily close below $6.75 loses the pre-signing rumor shelf and widens the discount to the $7.40 offer past 9%, consistent with a deal-break being handicapped; secondarily, the 2026-09-14 special meeting adjourning or missing the majority-of-voting-power threshold, or an 8-K disclosing a regulatory denial or outside-date extension. --- ### PAYS — Paysign, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Guidance-raise leg intact but the flow has thinned: no company datapoint since the 2026-08-05 print (rev $28.252M +48.1%, FY26 lifted to $114–117M), yet price added another 7% to $14.09 on 2026-08-21, RSI 96.7 at a 52-week high and above four of five published targets. The 2026-08-26 Midwest IDEAS appearance carries no financial disclosure; the next real test is ~2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 removes the entire post-Barrington leg and puts price under the CEO's 2026-08-06 sale average of $11.8757. Secondary: the 2026-08-26–27 Midwest IDEAS appearance passing with no incremental disclosure and the shares failing to hold the 2026-08-14 close of $13.17. --- ### PBI — Pitney Bowes Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: PBI broke the $17.62 shelf to a fresh 52-week high $18.62 (Jul 16) — the buyback/cost-cut re-rate is now extending, not consolidating. But revenue still shrinks ~3% YoY, consensus PT $16.43 sits below spot, and Q2 prints after close Jul 29. Momentum is real; the entry window into a binary print on a shrinking top line is not. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.70 loses the rising 50-day and drops price back inside the old $15.50–$17.62 base, marking the July breakout as a failed high; secondary: an FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $1.50 or quarterly buyback pace under ~$50M on the Jul 29 print. --- ### PCT — PureCycle Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-15 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Critical materials & rare earths, Semi foundry & equipment, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Post-dilution repair story: the June 10–15 raise (~$145M equity + $287.5M 4.75% converts, ~$11.08 conv) roughly halved the stock to ~$8 while the commercial ramp (Q1 record 8.4M-lb output, +161% revenue) held. The 2026-07-15 Mitsui/RM TOHCELLO Japan packaging deal re-lights offtake, but structure stays broken with no confirmed base — a floor has to form before the loaded ~41%-of-float short base becomes squeeze fuel. Kill line: A weekly close below $7 confirms the post-dilution downtrend with no base and opens the $4.93 52-week low; secondarily, another below-market raise or Q2 output stalling under the ~8M-lb/quarter pace breaks the commercial-ramp thesis. --- ### PDFS — PDF Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PDFS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI enterprise software, AI chips & memory Thesis: Yield-analytics software re-rated on a real margin step — operating margin ~18%→25%, Platform revenue +36% YoY (Q1 reported 2026-05-07) — but the ~+280% run peaked at $69.05 on 2026-07-02 and flushed 11.5% intraday; the name is now digesting near the top of its target band into the binary 2026-08-05 Q2 print. Story intact; buying the highs into earnings is the risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 loses the rising 50-day and the prior breakout shelf, breaking the momentum structure; secondarily, a 2026-08-05 Q2 print that fails to reaffirm ~20% FY growth or prints a second straight sequential revenue decline. --- ### PEB — Pebblebrook Hotel Trust URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PEB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: The 2026-07-29 binary resolved bullish — Q2 RevPAR +6.5%, AFFO $0.68, FY guide raised to $345–353M EBITDAre — and the stock still has not made a new high, closing 2026-08-14 at $18.25, 7.6% under the $19.75 high with RSI 35.3. Q3 guidance of +1%–3% RevPAR quarters the growth rate, and the completed sell-side file carries a $16.98 average target, below the market. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 surrenders the June 2026 breakout shelf and returns PEB to its $13–15 base; secondary condition: Q3 same-property RevPAR at or under the low end of the +1%–3% guide, or a trim to the $345–353M FY adjusted EBITDAre range, at the ~2026-10-27 print. --- ### PESI — Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PESI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Nuclear & uranium, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Binary resolved 2026-08-12 in two directions: the H2C master IDIQ is signed but issues no dollars before 2027-01-01, while Q2 printed a $2.5M gross loss and unalleviated going-concern doubt. No company release since 2026-08-12 and no dated catalyst inside 30 days — the name is in a catalyst vacuum holding above the 2026-07-17 gap until the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 fills the 2026-07-17 grouting-award gap and unwinds the award repricing; compounded if the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print shows revenue at or below $12.885M despite DFLAW receipts running since early July, or a new equity raise is filed after the May 2026 offering at $8.75. --- ### PGNY — Progyny, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGNY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Post-print de-rate still extending: $25.65 close on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) 18.1, the $28.75 July shelf lost, even as Wells Fargo initiated Overweight $37 (08-20) and JPM raised to $30 (08-21). The 2026-08-06 revenue guide cut is unresolved and nothing is dated until the Q3 print (~2026-11-05 est.). The June $24 shelf is the last structure; no base has formed. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 forfeits the June pre-breakout shelf and returns control to the pre-re-rate May range. Secondary: Q3 revenue at or under the $335M low end of the 2026-08-06 guide, or a walk-back of the 1M+ new-lives-for-2027 target. --- ### PI — Impinj, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Post-correction RAIN RFID recovery has extended to $138.37 (2026-07-17), holding the reclaimed $128 April gap-fill and pressing the $144.57 post-earnings high — but the entire near-term read is the 2026-07-29 Q2 print (guide $103–106M, EPS $0.77–0.82), roughly eight sessions out. Recovery into a binary, not a confirmed breakout. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 forfeits the reclaimed April gap-fill and re-opens the round-trip toward the 2026-06-05 low of $120.93; secondary break: Q2 revenue printing under the $103M guide floor, or a Q3 guide below the ~$100M implied run-rate, at the 2026-07-29 report. --- ### PII — Polaris Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PII/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The $66 shelf the recovery leg stood on is gone: the 2026-06-05 low of $66.06 broke and PII closed 2026-08-21 at $64.39, three weeks after a beat-and-raise (Q2 sales $2,023M, operational adjusted EPS $1.01 vs a $0.70–0.80 guide). The fundamentals confirmed and the price structure failed, with no company-confirmed catalyst until the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 breaks the residual earnings-floor argument and extends the move past any retest of the broken $66.06 June shelf. Secondary: the ~late-October Q3 print cutting FY26 operational adjusted EPS below $2.05, or North American retail turning negative YoY after +4% in Q2. --- ### PKOH — Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PKOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise leg is intact on the numbers but has stopped working on price: $52.51 on 2026-08-07 to $45.70 on 2026-08-21 (-13.0%), RSI(14) from 89.3 to 61.4, no company news since Stonegate's 2026-08-10 update and no dated checkpoint until the Q3 print around 2026-11-04. $45 is where the re-rating gets graded. Kill line: A weekly close below $45 surrenders the 2026-08-05 guidance-raise re-rating and hands back KeyBanc's own 2026-07-13 target level, which is also the early-August consensus average; secondary break is Engineered Products backlog failing to extend past $252M at the Q3 print around 2026-11-04. --- ### PLAY — Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Turnaround narrative dead since the 2026-06-15 comp miss (-5.4%, EPS $0.16 vs ~$0.598); CEO seat changed hands 2026-08-03 with CFO Darin Harper replacing Tarun Lal. Price stabilized off the $9.40 July low to $10.19 on 2026-08-14, RSI 47.5, 3m return +0.8% — no leg, only a low-bar Q2 print expected ~2026-09-14 as the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.40 takes out the July 52-week low and ends the post-capitulation basing read; secondary, a Q2 FY2026 print around 2026-09-14 with comps still negative or the positive-comp guide withdrawn under the new CEO. --- ### PLSE — Pulse Biosciences, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLSE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Timeline-compression leg extended by broker coverage rather than new data: Needham initiated Buy with a $58 target on 2026-08-17 and price closed 2026-08-21 at $50.42, a fresh 52-week high with RSI 82.5, above three of four published targets. Nothing company-dated until NANOPULSE-AF enrollment completion guided to early October. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 puts price back inside the mid-August range and marks the 2026-08-17 initiation breakout through the $44.92 prior high as a failed extension. Secondary: no NANOPULSE-AF enrollment-completion announcement by 2026-10-31. --- ### PLTK — Playtika Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLTK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The control-premium bid is gone and the markdown extended: the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $2.37 took out the $2.51 shelf, RSI(14) 12.9, 44.4% under the $4.26 52-week high. The one new disclosure is financing rather than a sale — 2026-08-18 NDRC clearance for up to $800M of bonds to prepay term-loan principal. Nothing dated inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.37 (the 2026-08-21 close, already through the prior $2.51 shelf) confirms the post-Q2 markdown is extending rather than basing; the strategic review reaching 2026-10-06 with no announced transaction is the secondary condition. --- ### PLUG — Plug Power, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLUG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-26 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The +475% hydrogen-comeback squeeze has broken: the $3.12 Q1 gap and the 50-day both failed, price is ~$2.17 (-20% in 30d), and Susquehanna cut its target $3.75 → $2.50 on 2026-07-10. The June 30 NY Gateway close resolved as a restructure into staged payments, not a clean $142M event. What's left is a serial diluter selling grid interconnects for cash — no trend entry here. Kill line: A daily close below $2.00 confirms the post-squeeze breakdown and opens the $1.65 Morgan Stanley target zone; secondarily, the Graham, Texas $76.5M sale failing to close on or about 2026-07-31 re-centers the cash-burn/going-concern frame. --- ### POWI — Power Integrations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The 800VDC AI-power re-rate has cracked. POWI lost the $74–78 May breakout shelf in a -20% week to $70.45 (2026-07-17) and now sits below the $76.20 average target for the first time since spring. The GaN cohort broke with it — NVTS is -41% in a month on a Wolfspeed patent suit and ON Semi's GaNEXUS entry. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is where narrative has to convert into disclosed data-center dollars. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 — the July swing low and the pre-breakout base — completes the round-trip of the entire 800VDC re-rate and ends the 2026 uptrend. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 Q2 print passing without a named AI data-center design win or quantified bookings, or the GaN cohort (NVTS, ON, MPWR) printing fresh lows together. --- ### POWL — Powell Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Record orders $934M and a 3.0x book-to-bill lifted backlog to $2.4B (+69% YoY) at the 2026-08-03 print, yet shares fell 13.4% the next pre-market on a second straight EPS/revenue miss and closed 2026-08-14 at $213.48, -33.7% off the high. The order book accelerated; the tape did not. No dated catalyst until the fiscal-year print in the December quarter. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 ends the post-print stabilization attempt and extends the lower-high sequence off the $321.94 May high; separately, a Q4/FY2026 print showing backlog under the $2.4B record or book-to-bill below 1.0x breaks the order-acceleration leg regardless of price. --- ### PTEN — Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01) and bounced to $9.78 — but nothing is reclaimed until $10.50. Q2 print 07-30 is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.57 breaks the early-July low and confirms the downtrend rather than a base; secondary: the 2026-07-30 Q2 call cuts the 100-rig year-end path while US gas rigs roll back under 120. --- ### PTRN — Pattern Group Inc. Series A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Squeeze leg is dead: the 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise (revenue $876.8M, +47% YoY, record 129% NRR, FY26 guide up to $3.42–3.46B) and target raises to $29–30 left the stock at $21.44 on 2026-08-14, below its post-print after-hours level. Fundamentals accelerating, tape distributing against a holder still reporting 18.98M shares, and no company catalyst until the Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $19 loses the June secondary price where 9.2M shares cleared and opens the IPO-era $14–15.63 zone; secondarily, a Q3 report at or below the $840M low end of guidance, or NRR under 120% from 129%, ends the acceleration case. --- ### PVH — PVH Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: The August bounce failed: $82.47 on 2026-08-14 to $78.50 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) 25.0, after a 6.2% sector-wide apparel drop on 2026-08-17. Q2 FY26 lands after the close on 2026-09-02 and is the binary — headline EPS carries the ~$100M one-time IEEPA refund, so the revenue line and H2 EMEA commentary are what grade the legacy-brand turn. Kill line: A weekly close below $75 ends the post-flush recovery frame and returns PVH to the June gap base near $71; secondary, the 2026-09-02 Q2 print passing with the FY26 revenue outlook still approximately flat, EMEA down year over year, and margin carried by the ~$100M one-time IEEPA refund. --- ### PYPL — PayPal Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PYPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Bid became negotiation: WSJ (2026-08-14) reports Stripe/Advent in active talks and weighing a raise over the rejected $60.50 offer, while the 2026-07-28 Q2 beat (EPS $1.38 vs $1.28) and a raised FY26 guide lifted standalone value. At $61.66 (2026-08-14) the tape already prices a bump, with RSI 76.2 and no scheduled catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $56 unwinds the deal premium back through the 2026-07-15 bid-day close of $56.56 and re-anchors price to standalone value; secondary confirmation is a reported breakdown in the Stripe/Advent talks, a merger agreement signed at $60.50 with no raise, or an antitrust second request pushing closing past 2027. --- ### QDEL — QuidelOrtho Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QDEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Semi foundry & equipment, Crypto exchanges & financials, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Deal-rumor leg fully retraced and still unresolved: the 2026-08-06 cut (FY26 adj EPS to $0.65–0.90 from $1.80–2.00, FCF guide withdrawn) took price back to the $13.79 pre-rumor shelf, and the $14.74 close of 2026-08-21 is drift on no disclosure. Nothing is scheduled inside 30 days; an unsigned ~$1.5B point-of-care sale is the only lever on 4.3x leverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.75 gives back the entire 2026-06-29 deal-rumor gap and restores the pre-rumor downtrend, with the $9.92 52-week low as the next reference. Secondary: reporting that the point-of-care sale process has lapsed, or an equity takedown off the 2026-07-17 shelf. --- ### QLYS — Qualys, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QLYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: The AI-vulnerability-surface reframe got its numbers: Q2 (2026-08-04) revenue $182.2M +11% YoY beat the guide, FY2026 raised to $732–738M, stock +14% after hours, eight targets lifted 2026-08-05. Confirmation is now in the price — the 2026-08-14 close of $186.05 sits above six of those eight targets with RSI(14) 83.1 and no company event until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $155 forfeits the unfilled 2026-08-04 post-print gap and returns price under the prior $155.47 ceiling, re-opening the $132–140 shelf and the $111 June base; secondary break if Q3 (~2026-11-03 est.) lands revenue under the $185.5M guide low end or net dollar expansion slips back to 104% or below. --- ### QRVO — Qorvo, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QRVO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI chips & memory Thesis: US antitrust cleared 2026-08-01 and Skyworks' post-print recovery to $69.62 lifted implied consideration to $99.33 (0.960 SWKS + $32.50 cash) against QRVO's $98.11 close — about 1.2% gross for underwriting China's SAMR and Korea's KFTC, the two remaining gates, versus a ~$75–78 standalone break zone. The completion narrative is late in its arc. Kill line: A weekly close below $89 gives back the entire post-2026-07-28 advance and marks either a full Skyworks round-trip or a spread widening into break-risk pricing; secondary confirmation if Skyworks reverts to early-2027 close language or discloses a withdrawal and refiling of the China notification. --- ### QUIK — QuickLogic Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUIK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI chips & memory, Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The eFPGA/defense royalty squeeze has fully unwound: QUIK is ~$13, roughly 47% below the $24.33 June high, and the $18 shelf broke exactly as the Russell inclusion passed. July's post-quantum IP announcement drew no bid — good news into no demand. Broken tape; the read now hinges on the ~2026-08-11 Q2 print, not the story. Kill line: A daily close below $11.50 confirms the post-index unwind is extending and opens the $9–10 zone; secondary break: Q2 revenue on the ~2026-08-11 print landing under the $5.4M low end of the $6M ±10% guide, or another equity raise disclosed alongside it. --- ### QURE — uniQure N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QURE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: FDA's 2026-06-17 reversal put AMT-130 on an accelerated-approval path with a Q3 2026 BLA — the narrative is genuinely repaired, but the move is spent: $40.25 (7/17) sits below the $45.50 June offering price with the CEO selling into it on 7/02. Next leg needs a dated filing headline, not another upgrade. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 (surrenders the rising 50-DMA and the pre-U-turn consolidation shelf); secondarily, the AMT-130 BLA slipping out of Q3 2026 or the confirmatory study reverting to a sham-surgery control. --- ### RAMP — LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Thesis: Shareholder gate cleared 2026-08-17: 51,578,202 shares voted to adopt versus 60,073 against, leaving CFIUS, HSR and non-US clearances as the only unconfirmed conditions on Publicis' $38.50 cash offer. The 2026-08-21 close of $37.58 sits $0.92 under the contract price — a spread that widened through the vote instead of compressing. Kill line: A daily close below $35 breaks the post-vote arb band and marks the market repricing completion odds toward the $29.66 pre-announcement close; secondarily, a disclosed CFIUS extended review, a DOJ/FTC second request, or the 2026-12-31 target close passing with no clearance confirmed. --- ### RARE — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RARE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-23 Thesis: The +50% June reset rally round-tripped from ~$33.46 to $28.62 (2026-07-21), parking price back on the breakout shelf ahead of two binary FDA decisions: DTX401 (GSD Ia) PDUFA Aug 23 and UX111 (Sanfilippo A) PDUFA Sep 19. The July 30 Q2 print is a near-term event, but the paired PDUFAs are the trade — a coin-flip on support, not accelerating momentum. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 breaks the June gene-therapy-reset breakout shelf and returns price toward the low-$20s post-setrusumab base; independently, a complete response letter or an action-date delay on either DTX401 (PDUFA 2026-08-23) or UX111 (PDUFA 2026-09-19) ends the thesis. --- ### RBLX — Roblox Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBLX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Broken growth compounder: the age-verification rollout throttled DAUs and forced FY26 bookings guidance down to +8-12%; stock is -66% from its $150 high and below the 200-day. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — it needs a DAU inflection to confirm a bottom, else the downtrend resumes. Kill line: A daily close below $46 loses the post-Q1 basing shelf and the 50-day, confirming a resumed downtrend toward the $40.15 low; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print with DAUs still contracting and no reaffirmed Q3 re-acceleration is the fundamental break. --- ### RDW — Redwire Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Post-SpaceX-IPO deflation broke RDW to a 2026-07-18 low near $8.51 (~67% off the 5/28 record). A relief bounce on Huntsville/Indiana facility news and $41.5M of H1 Stalker drone orders keeps running into a ~$850M dilution ceiling: the $500M ATM prints ~59M shares at this quote. No higher-low base has formed; the ~August Q2 print is the first test of whether raised capital converts to revenue. Kill line: A weekly close below $8 loses the 2026-07-18 cycle low near $8.06 and confirms the next leg of the post-SpaceX-IPO downtrend; a Q2 guidance cut or a fresh capital raise disclosed alongside the ~August print reinforces the break. --- ### REAX — The Real Brokerage, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/REAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Hypergrowth brokerage story has decelerated (Q1 rev +32% vs 70%+ historically, a forecast miss) and the stock sits near 52-week lows after the $880M RE/MAX deal spooked investors on dilution. The read is now a binary consolidation bet, not a momentum long, into the Aug 6 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.95 breaks the July basing low and confirms the downtrend, voiding any mean-reversion thesis; a follow-on break is the RE/MAX merger being voted down or blocked by regulators before an expected H2 2026 close. --- ### RFAI — RF Acquisition Corp II URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RFAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations Thesis: Near-total redemption — 3,956,323 of 3,998,108 public shares, 98.95% — left almost no tradable float into the 2026-08-19 Nanyang Biologics approval, and RFAI ran +524.3% on the week to close $58.00. The leg being bought is a mechanical float squeeze with a scheduled end: closing converts RFAI into NYB and re-opens the share count. Kill line: A daily close below $35 forfeits the entire 2026-08-21 squeeze-session range (low $35.22), leaving no structure between price and the $11.13 trust redemption value; secondarily, closing and conversion to the NYB ticker retires the float mechanic being bought. --- ### RH URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Squeeze leg now ratified by the sell side — TD Cowen $220 (2026-08-08) and Wells Fargo $225 (2026-08-11) against B of A's reinstated Underperform $156 (2026-08-03) — and it resolves into the 2026-09-10 Q2 print with ~56.7% of float still short but shares short already falling. The 2026-08-14 close of $181.76 sits above the $175 20-analyst consensus average. maturing, and the print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $155 forfeits the August re-rating leg and puts price back under both Goldman's $155 and B of A's $156 targets; a Q2 miss or FY guide-down at the 2026-09-10 print, or shares short falling below 5.0M, confirms the squeeze fuel is spent. --- ### RHI — Robert Half Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RHI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-13 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Prediction markets & betting, Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: White-collar staffing in secular decline: Q2 EPS collapsed to $0.26 (2026-07-23) as AI automation and a frozen hiring market gut permanent-placement demand. The >5% dividend yield reads as a value-trap signal rather than a floor. No accelerating long narrative; a cyclical bounce needs labor data to turn first. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 confirms the secular staffing downtrend and kills any cyclical-bounce thesis, opening a slide toward Goldman's $29 Sell target; a dividend cut would seal the value-trap read. --- ### RIVN — Rivian Automotive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility Thesis: The 2026-07-30 binary resolved bullish — revenue $1.658B (+27% YoY), FY delivery guide raised to 65,000–70,000 — and the market gave the entire 2026-07-31 pop back, closing 2026-08-14 at $15.36, under the $15.50 July offering price. Narrative maturing: the proof burden moves to R2 volume in Q4, with no dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.90 loses the pre-raise selloff shelf and ends the recovery leg; secondarily, a full-year delivery guide cut below the 65,000 floor at the Q3 report, or an R2 second shift still not running when Q3 volumes publish (~2026-10-02, est.). --- ### RLMD — Relmada Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: The level this coverage was framed around broke: the 2026-08-21 weekly close of $4.63 is under the $4.75 March PIPE strike, and it broke on no disclosure. With the 2026 clinical calendar emptied on the 2026-08-06 call, what remains is a pre-IND asset with $217.7M of cash and a first Phase 3 readout guided to 1H 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.25 — roughly 10% under the March PIPE issue price, whose $4.75 shelf already failed on the 2026-08-21 weekly close at $4.63. Secondary: no NDV-01 IND submission announced by 2026-12-31, which pushes first Phase 3 data past the guided 1H 2027. --- ### RLYB — Rallybio Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLYB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: No new filing since the 2026-08-06 10-Q: as of 2026-08-23 the 2026-07-15 S-4 is still not effective, with no record date or meeting date set. The 2026-08-21 close of $16.83 sits ~7% above the ~$15.68/share implied by the S-4's $83.2M Net Cash over 5,306,894 shares — the discount has inverted, and the clock keeps adding burn. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 breaks the read — that sits under the per-share arithmetic on the S-4's $83.2M Net Cash at 2026-06-30 and implies the market is pricing a deal break or a Net Cash haircut. Secondary: the 2026-07-15 registration statement still not declared effective by 2026-09-30. --- ### RMBS — Rambus Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMBS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-24 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Memory theme is ripping — Micron +68% YTD with HBM sold out through 2027 — but Rambus has decoupled, down ~42% from its 2026-06-03 high of $174.10 to $101.44 while the cycle proxy sits near records. Interface content is a DIMM-unit story, not a DRAM-price story, and the 2026-07-27 Q2 print is the binary that resolves which. Kill line: A weekly close below $95 breaks the July shelf and the 200-day, confirming the de-rating is a unit-volume problem rather than a momentum unwind; secondary: Q2 product revenue printing under the $95M guide floor on 2026-07-27, or a 2H26 guide that fails to raise on the MRDIMM/SOCAMM2 ramp. --- ### RNG — Ringcentral, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RNG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-20 Thesis: The late-July fade framing has been overrun: RNG ran from the post-print low-$40s to a $67.78 52-week high on 2026-08-13, closing $64.49 (08-14), +57.7% in three months. The leg is a legacy UCaaS name re-labelled on AI mix (~13% of ARR, doubled YoY) plus a 67% dividend raise. No binary until Q3 (~late Oct); price sits far above every dated target ($40 Mizuho, $43 Piper, 2026-07-24). Kill line: A weekly close below $52 gives back the vertical August phase and returns price to the late-July post-gap range; secondary, a Q3 print (~late Oct 2026) inside the $664–670M guide with still no upgrade off the $40–43 Neutral band leaves the re-rating running on multiple alone. --- ### RPAY — Repay Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RPAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Fintech & consumer credit, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The bid discount narrowed on an operating headline: the close ran $3.66 (2026-08-14) to $4.01 (2026-08-21) after REPAY joined Visa Platform Connect on 2026-08-19, leaving Forager's rejected $5.25 cash proposal ~31% above the tape with no activist filing since the print. Nothing scheduled before the ~November Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.65 retraces the entire 2026-08-19 Visa Platform Connect move and returns price to the post-Q2 low zone; below $3.45 the whole June revised-bid re-rating is gone. Secondarily, a Forager 13D/A withdrawing the $5.25 proposal or reverting to 13G status removes the bid anchor. --- ### RUM — Rumble Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The sell-the-news break is now confirmed: RUM lost the $6.46–$6.66 100/200-day shelf and closed $5.76 on 2026-07-17, -19% from the post-rebrand tape and within 25% of the $4.62 52-week low. Every moving average is overhead. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print — first consolidated quarter plus the company's first-ever formal guidance — is the only thing that re-rates this. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.20 breaks the last shelf before the $4.62 52-week low and confirms the pivot is being repriced as dilution rather than growth; secondarily, a 2026-08-10 Q2 print that misses ~$116.6M consolidated revenue or pairs it with soft maiden guidance removes the last dated re-rate on the board. --- ### RZLT — Rezolute, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RZLT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: A 10.7% week to $5.09 on 2026-08-21 with zero company news since the 2026-07-21 conference notice — the bid arrived via Friday-gainer screens, not a disclosure. The 2026-06-02 upLIFT interim (6 of 8 responders) is still the entire story, the topline is still undated inside "2H-2026", and the ~2026-09-16 FY2026 report is the only dated event in the window. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.55 puts price back under the $4.60/$4.61 shelf that held 2026-07-17 to 2026-08-14 and reads the August move as screener flow; below $4.00 closes the 2026-06-02 interim gap. Secondary: the FY2026 report (~2026-09-16 est.) passing without dating the upLIFT topline, or an equity takedown ahead of it. --- ### S — SentinelOne, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/S/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Agentic-security re-rate has cooled into its print: price $23.11 (2026-08-14) → $21.19 (2026-08-21), RSI 83.3 → 56.3, while seven target raises landed 08-17 to 08-21 and consensus caught spot at $21.52. The 2026-08-27 Q2 FY2027 print is the binary — Guggenheim (2026-08-20) is on record expecting a modest FY raise; a fourth affirmation of $1.195–1.205B breaks the leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.50 returns price to the post-crater $18–21 range and ends the August agentic-security leg. Secondary: the 2026-08-27 Q2 FY2027 call delivering another affirmation of the $1.195–1.205B FY revenue guide with no lift to the $0.32–0.38 adjusted EPS range. --- ### SABR — Sabre Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SABR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Travel & leisure, AI enterprise software, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: June's +20% deleveraging bounce has fully round-tripped: $1.99 (6/26) back to $1.73 (7/17), now under the 50-day near $1.79 after failing exactly at the $1.99 consensus PT. Balance sheet is fixed, narrative is not accelerating, and a >6x-levered equity stub goes into the 2026-08-06 Q2 print as a binary. The setup does not clear until price reclaims $1.99 or earnings clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.55 breaks the base that held the 6/05 $1.66 low and reopens $1.40, then the 200-day near $1.23; secondarily, an FY2026 EBITDA guidance cut or air-distribution booking decline at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print confirms the $1.50 bear case. --- ### SAFT — Safety Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAFT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Mapfre's $105.00 all-cash deal (signed 2026-07-23) has pinned the tape: the 2026-08-14 close of $103.35 leaves ~1.6% gross to the contract price, down from ~4.6% on 2026-07-24, with no publicly reported approval milestone in between. The market is discounting ~95% odds of a Massachusetts change-of-control clearance that has not happened yet. Kill line: A daily close below $99 (spread re-widening past the 2026-07-24 $100.35 announcement mark, putting the ~$72.92 unaffected level back in play); secondary confirmation would be a Massachusetts Division of Insurance hearing notice on the Form A or an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request. --- ### SAH — Sonic Automotive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: GPU-normalization narrative broke at the 2026-07-30 print: revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus, but adjusted EPS fell 17% YoY, franchised segment income −23%, and EchoPark FY26 GPU guidance was cut ~$300 at the midpoint. Shares round-tripped the entire June–July advance to −26.8% off the $112.66 high. Nothing company-specific resolves before Q3 (~2026-10-22, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $78 breaks the pre-advance shelf the June–July move launched from and turns the round-trip into a fresh downtrend leg; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-22, est.) showing consolidated new-vehicle GPU under the $2,850–$3,000 FY26 band. --- ### SAIL — SailPoint, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAIL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Agentic-identity story intact and the post-earnings flush is basing: SAIL clawed from a $13.33 low (6/22) back to $15.68 (7/17), a higher low off the $10.30 bottom. Growth decelerated (ARR +26% vs +30%) and guidance was only affirmed, so the multiple won't re-expand until agentic demand converts to reported ARR — Rosenblatt's 7/8 Neutral $16 says prove it. Constructive on a low-$16s (200-day) reclaim; Q2 print (~early Sept) is the proof-point. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 breaks the June higher-low base and reopens the $10.30 52-week low; secondary: a Q2 FY27 print (~early Sept) with SaaS ARR growth under the mid-30s% or net revenue retention slipping below 110%. --- ### SANA — Sana Biotechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: Type-1-diabetes functional-cure narrative: UP421's no-immunosuppression islet transplant is still producing insulin at 14 months (n=1), de-risking SC451's IND guided "as early as 2026." Rare-disease cell therapy is accelerating, but the tape is basing near 52-week lows — a probe against binary data and dilution risk, not a momentum chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.20 fails the base off the $2.61 52-week low and points price back at the lows; secondarily, a dilutive equity raise priced well below market or SC451's IND slipping out of 2026. --- ### SANM — Sanmina Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The prior break level gave way: the 2026-08-21 weekly close at $188.89 retraced the entire June re-rate. FQ3 on 2026-07-27 beat and raised — $3.46B revenue, +69.7% YoY, FY26 EPS guide lifted to $11.90–12.20 — and the tape answered with a >20% single-session drop. The price leg is broken while the P&L compounds, and no company-dated event exists until the FQ4 print expected in early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $180 says the post-2026-07-28 distribution is still running rather than basing; confirmed on the fundamentals by FQ4 revenue printing under the $3.3B guide floor at the ~2026-11-02 report, an FQ4 non-GAAP operating margin below the 7.5% guide floor, or an FY2027 revenue frame introduced below the reiterated $16B+. --- ### SAP — SAP SE URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, GPU cloud & neoclouds, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Post-Q2 repair leg: SAP rallied ~6% on 2026-07-24 and ~7% on 2026-07-27 despite a reported headline EPS miss, because current cloud backlog hit €22.9bn (+27%) and management guided FY26 constant-currency growth near 2025's 10.6% with acceleration promised for 2027. RSI(14) 83.8 at the 2026-08-21 close of $218.68, still 21% under the $276.97 high, and no company binary until the 2026-10-21 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 unwinds the mid-August $208–209 shelf and the post-Q2 re-rating leg. Secondary: the 2026-10-21 Q3 print softening or removing the "acceleration in 2027" revenue language given on 2026-07-23. --- ### SATL — Satellogic Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SATL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The mania leg broke in July — the $6.33 shelf and the $4.97 range low both went — and the 2026-08-05 Q2 print handed the name a different story: revenue $15.9M (+259% YoY) vs $9.6M consensus, plus the first positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA in company history. Price bounced to $5.52 on 2026-08-07 (+9.52%, RSI 80.1) with no base, and 55% of the quarter came from lumpy satellite deliveries. Kill line: A daily close below $4.83 unwinds the 2026-08-05 print-day close and returns price to the July downtrend that already took out $4.97; secondary, the 2026-08-21 CFO deadline passing with only an interim appointment while the space group gives back the post-Iridium M&A bid. --- ### SBET — SharpLink, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SBET/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: ETH broke $1,850–$1,950 to ~$2,280 on 2026-08-20 on a $1.9B short-liquidation cascade, carrying SBET to $7.91 with RSI 78.3 — despite a 2026-08-10 Q2 miss and a $394.3M net loss. What trades now is levered ETH beta into the 2026-09-15 Senate CLARITY Act cloture vote, not the premium-funded flywheel. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.40 gives back the entire August ETH-breakout leg built off the 2026-08-07 close of $6.43; secondary conditions, the 2026-09-15 Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act coming and going without 60 votes, or a filing showing shares outstanding above 216,983,308 with the ETH count flat. --- ### SEER — Seer, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The take-private ladder has stalled into a stand-off: the $2.55 Radoff-JEC bid lapsed unanswered on 2026-08-10, and the group's 2026-08-13 release demanding the board disclose an evaluation timeline has drawn no company reply through the 2026-08-21 close of $2.03. Q2 missed both lines and cash fell to $209.5M. No company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $1.95 gives back the 2026-07-06 gap shelf; compounded if a further 30 days pass from the 2026-08-13 demand letter with no 8-K or press release disclosing an evaluation timeline, a Special Committee counter, or a definitive agreement. --- ### SENS — Senseonics Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SENS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Only year-long implantable CGM, clinically de-risked at ADA 2026 with revenue +71.9% YoY TTM — and the tape has spent six weeks grinding back toward the $4.79 post-catalyst low ($5.11 on Jul 17). Accelerating fundamentals against a broken price structure; the Aug 5 Q2 print, with cash burn and dilution the swing factor, is the next real test. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.79 breaks the June post-ADA low and confirms the dilution-spiral leg lower; a secondary confirmation would be the Aug 5 Q2 print showing burn accelerating with no breakeven path. An upside flip requires reclaiming and holding the 50-day on expanding volume. --- ### SFIX — Stitch Fix, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SFIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Turnaround intact on the income statement, inert on the tape: closes of $3.58 (2026-07-24) and $3.59 (2026-08-14) bracket three flat weeks on the $3.50 shelf, and the 2026-08-10 Form 144 shows a retiring officer selling ~70,000 sh weekly since 2026-06-16. Nothing resolves until the Q4/FY26 print, ~2026-09-23 est., which sits outside the 30-day window. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.50 loses the shelf that the 2026-07-24 ($3.58) and 2026-08-14 ($3.59) closes held, fills the pre-earnings gap and opens the $2.95 52-week low; secondarily, a Q4/FY26 print (~2026-09-23 est.) under the $322M revenue guide floor or active clients resuming sequential decline from ~2.3M. --- ### SG — Sweetgreen, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: The turnaround narrative was retracted by management on 2026-08-06 and repriced by eight desks into a $5.00–$8.50 target band. What has run since — $6.28 on 2026-08-14 to $6.99 on 2026-08-21 — is a ~24.5%-shorted float drifting up in a catalyst vacuum, with no company event scheduled before the ~November Q3 print and price now above six of the eight post-print targets. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 gives back the entire post-guide-down recovery leg and re-opens the 2026-08-13 area near $5.82. Secondarily, the ~2026-08-26 short-interest publication showing the 22.889M-share base materially reduced without price clearing $7.40 removes the mechanical bid, with no company event before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. --- ### SGMT — Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SGMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: April denifanstat/acne breakout round-tripped to the $6.00 Series A offering floor; SGMT bases near $7 (last close $7.06, 2026-06-26) with no trend. Dermatology pivot (China NMPA acne NDA accepted Dec 2025, US IND due mid-2026) is real but decelerated to saturated, and no dated binary sits inside 30 days — a wait-for-re-acceleration name, not a fresh momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 loses the April Series A offering floor and turns the round-trip into a fresh downtrend; combined with the derm/MASH theme confirming saturated and the China NMPA acne decision still undated, that removes the last re-acceleration catalyst. --- ### SHOO — Steven Madden, Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHOO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Tariff-recovery leg has stalled into a $39.71–$47.11 range with insiders selling every rally and zero buys; the whole story now hinges on the confirmed 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Consensus targets sit at or below spot ($43.75, 07-16), adjusted EPS is declining, and reported growth remains Kurt Geiger-fed. Binary event, no discount. Kill line: A weekly close below $39 loses the shelf that has held since the spring breakout and confirms the tariff-recovery leg is over; secondarily, the 2026-07-30 Q2 print cutting the $2.00–$2.10 FY26 adjusted-EPS guide, or organic ex-Kurt-Geiger DTC turning negative. --- ### SIDU — Sidus Space, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-14) cleared the calendar: revenue $583,096, -54% YoY, against $166.5M cash and no term debt. The SpaceX-proxy leg died when SPCX listed 2026-06-12 and the 2026-06-26 Russell add faded; what remains is a cash-heavy micro-cap bouncing at $2.60 on RSI 70.7, 58% under the $6.20 high, with no dated event before the Transporter-18 rideshare NET October 2026. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.15 retraces the entire post-print bounce and resumes the round-trip toward the pre-mania base; secondarily, Transporter-18 slipping out of its NET-October-2026 window without a firm replacement date leaves no dated hard-tech event on the calendar. --- ### SITM — SiTime Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SITM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-29 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment, M&A & special situations Thesis: MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels story is fundamentally intact — Q1 datacenter revenue +158% YoY to 67% of sales, Renesas timing deal closed July 1 — but the momentum leg has broken: ~$550 on July 18 is ~39% off the May 11 all-time-high close of $901.48, through the $560 shelf, with 31 insider sales and zero buys in six months. Aug 5 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $480 round-trips the entire post-Q1 datacenter re-rate back to the pre-print base and confirms the AI-timing multiple is unwinding rather than consolidating; secondary: Q2 revenue on Aug 5 below the $140M guide floor, a sequential CED/datacenter decline, or FY growth guidance cut from the ≥80% bar. --- ### SKM — SK Telecom Co., Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SKM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets, Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rating extended to a $40.29 close on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) at 74.0, but the 2026-08-07 6-K stretched the funding-disclosure commitment from one month to three — the ~₩1T primary-increase question is now unresolved and undated inside 30 days, while the Seoul line at ₩100,200 has already met the ₩100,588 mean analyst target. Kill line: A weekly close below $34.80 hands back the entire 2026-08-05 print-session re-rating (that session closed $34.80, +7.94%) and returns the ADR to its pre-Q2 range; a 6-K naming a primary equity increase size and offer price would compound the break. --- ### SLDB — Solid Biosciences Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SLDB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Post-Sarepta DMD vacuum trade now in a waiting phase: the guided mid-2026 accelerated-approval update never landed — the 2026-08-06 Q2 release moved the FDA meeting to late Q4 2026 while INSPIRE dosing grew to 53 (as of 2026-08-04). Price back to $9.20 with RSI(14) 72.4, a fresh $200M stock prospectus, and no dated company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 forfeits the June breakout shelf that absorbed the July drawdown; secondary break if the late-Q4-2026 FDA meeting passes without an accelerated-approval path, or a first DILI/TMA/myocarditis case appears as INSPIRE dosing grows past 53. --- ### SLS — SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Squeeze & momentum setups, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Cancer-vaccine sector re-rate after Merck/Moderna's 2026-08-19 Phase 3 win carried SLS to a 52-week closing high of $15.46 on 2026-08-21 (+15.4% on the session, RSI 78.7) with no SELLAS data of its own; REGAL's last published count is still 78 of 80 from 2026-05-11. Borrowed acceleration into an undated binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 retraces the entire post-INTerpath-001 advance and returns price to the July range; secondarily, a Q3 2026 report (~November) still describing REGAL's 80th event as pending, or a final overall-survival analysis that misses significance. --- ### SMCI — Super Micro Computer, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMCI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-27 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Dilution leg has broken the story: the $7B raise cleared at $27.50 on June 11 and spot is $24.18, with a live $2B ATM as forward supply. DDR contract prices +32% QoQ crush a business guiding 8.2–8.4% gross margin. Falling knife under all major averages into the Aug 11 FY26 print — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 confirms the post-dilution breakdown extending toward the $19.48 52-week low; failure to reclaim the $27.50 offering price, or Q4 gross margin at or under the 8.2–8.4% guide on 2026-08-11, reinforces the value-trap read. --- ### SMMT — Summit Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: Two positive headlines on 2026-08-12 — Akeso's third China approval and a Leerink upgrade — left the stock lower: the 2026-08-21 close of $13.16 sits under the 2026-08-14 close and just above the $12.55 52-week low. The dated binary is the 2026-11-14 PDUFA; the undated HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS in H2 2026 stands in front of it. Funded by ATM issuance, not by a bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 removes the June shelf and the $12.55 52-week low; reinforced if HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS misses again in H2 2026, or if the 2026-11-14 PDUFA returns a complete response letter or an extension. --- ### SMTC — Semtech Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: The mix-purification leg has lost its price leg: the August bounce round-tripped from a $140.35 close on 2026-08-14 to $124.09 on 2026-08-21, under the 2026-07-17 flush close. The binary moved forward — Q2 FY27 prints 2026-08-25 after the close, with consensus ($328.4M / $0.62) sitting exactly on the guide, so the October outlook carries the move. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 confirms the July $124–125 closing floor failed rather than held, leaving the June–August range as distribution. Secondary: a 2026-08-25 Q2 FY27 print under the $323–333M guide, or an October-quarter guide below the ~$360M the sell-side models. --- ### SMTI — Sanara MedTech Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Merger-arb instrument since MIMEDX's 2026-07-29 agreement ($33.00 cash + 0.4735 MDXG per share). The 2026-08-11 Form 425 disclosed a 2027-07-29 outside date, a $22.5M reverse termination fee and 38.9% voting lock-up; at the $34.45 close (2026-08-21) the gross spread to ~$35.05 computed consideration is ~$0.60, with no S-4 and no vote date yet on file. Kill line: A daily close below $32.50 prices termination odds rather than normal deal friction; secondarily, an S-4 background showing a narrow pre-signing process with no competing party, or the year-end 2026 closing target passing with the 2027-07-29 outside date still governing. --- ### SMWB — Similarweb Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMWB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Post-print repricing has stalled: the 2026-08-12 guidance raise and ~$60M of AI-licensing contract value are in the price, and Form 4 filings dated 2026-08-17 show the CEO selling 709,597 shares (~$6.25M) into it on 08-13/14. The $10.40 high was made and 20.8% handed back by the 2026-08-21 close of $8.24, with no dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 hands back the post-guidance advance and puts price under the lowest live sell-side target ($8.50, Oppenheimer 2026-08-05); further Form 4 sales into weakness under the open Form 144 window, or a Q3 print (~mid-November) beneath the $80.5M guide floor with AI revenue still 13% of sales, confirms the break. --- ### SNEX — StoneX Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Prediction markets & betting Thesis: The split-momentum leg is dead. SNEX round-tripped from a $139.01 all-time-high close (2026-06-18) to $102.99 on 2026-07-17 — down 12.5% in a week, 22.4% in a month — while insiders dumped $94.2M over three months with zero buys. Split-adjusted from 2026-07-20 (~$68.66); the 2026-08-04 fiscal Q3 print now has to rescue a broken tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 (split-adjusted; ≈$96 pre-split) cuts through the entire May consolidation shelf and turns the June round-trip into a full trend reversal rather than a momentum unwind; secondary break is the 2026-08-04 fiscal Q3 print showing net-operating-revenue growth decelerating to single digits YoY or listed-derivatives volume rolling off the ~100M-contract Q2 pace. --- ### SOPH — SOPHiA GENETICS SA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SOPH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Cloud-genomics platform narrative inflected on the 2026-08-04 Q2 print: net dollar retention 117% vs 107% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $94–96M, and a two-program AstraZeneca companion-diagnostics deal. Price has already run 77.3% in three months into a 52-week high at $8.65 with RSI 82.3, and the next scheduled disclosure is ~10 weeks out. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.84 (the 2026-08-04 post-print session close) hands back the entire guidance-raise gap; secondary condition is a Q3 print near 2026-11-03 (est.) that leaves the $94–96M FY2026 guide unchanged or lower, or net dollar retention back under 110%. --- ### SPIR — Spire Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: The 2026-08-12 print removed the binary without restoring the base: revenue $18.048M just under $18.139M consensus, adj EPS $(0.31) a beat, FY26 revenue held at $75–85M with >85% of the midpoint contracted — but both EPS guides were cut and $23.4M of quarterly operating cash burn sits against ~$92M of cash. At $13.94 (08-21) the lost $15–16 June shelf is still overhead. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 puts price under the entire August contract-news bid (NOAA $3M 08-04, $3.7M 08-14) and leaves the $15–16 June shelf unreclaimed. Secondary: an ATM or registered offering disclosed against the ~$92M cash line, or 2026-09-18 passing with no close above $15. --- ### SPRY — ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-20 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Space economy Thesis: Single-product epinephrine name whose one catalyst — a July no-prior-auth formulary add for neffy — came and went unpaid; the stock has since broken its old $6.66 52-week low to fresh lows near $6. The neffy ramp is real but the access re-rate failed to fire; broken chart, the setup does not clear ahead of the ~Aug 12 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.76 confirms a fresh 52-week-low breakdown and extends the post-catalyst downtrend; a secondary break is a Q2 print (~2026-08-12) that shows sequential neffy revenue deceleration rather than the guided H2 access-driven inflection. --- ### SPT — Sprout Social, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Margin-inflection re-rate on an 11%-growth social SaaS: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print lifted FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $1.11–1.15 from $0.88–0.97 while the revenue range barely moved, and three targets were raised inside a week. Shares are +46.9% over three months into a calendar with no confirmed company event before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 erases the entire post-2026-08-06 advance and returns the shares to their pre-print range; a Q3 revenue print at or under the $123.3M guide floor, or an FY2026 revenue-range cut at the early-November report, would confirm the break fundamentally. --- ### SRAD — Sportradar Group AG URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SRAD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, AI datacenter infrastructure, Squeeze & momentum setups Thesis: Binary resolved against the bull leg: the 2026-08-03 Q2 print missed both lines, cut FY sales guidance to $1.765–1.782B, and put only "tens of millions" of euros of 2026 prediction-market revenue on the board — then Genius Sports signed both Polymarket and Kalshi on 2026-08-04/05, ending the exclusivity framing. A 19%-growth data business at $13.82 with an unaudited fraud allegation still open. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 breaks the post-print recovery and the four-month range floor; a close beneath the $11.66 52-week low opens continuation, and a Q3 report that again omits an audited legal-vs-illegal operator revenue split confirms it. --- ### STAA — STAAR Surgical Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STAA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Semi foundry & equipment, M&A & special situations Thesis: Structure broken, no dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-07 pre-release window. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.00 turns the 2026-08-21 break of $23.50 into trend continuation and reopens the range toward the $15.59 destocking low; secondary break is the ~2026-10-07 preliminary-sales window passing with no pre-release, pushing the first post-peak China datapoint out to the November print. --- ### STM — STMicroelectronics N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The June AI-data-center re-rating has failed its retest: $62.06 on 2026-07-17 is -22% from the 2026-06-22 high of $79.82 and back under the early-June breakout base, with a $1.5B convertible overhang and a 7% selloff that ignored a BofA upgrade to $100. The 2026-07-23 Q2 print is now the whole trade — binary, three trading days out. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 takes out the pre-breakout May shelf and confirms the June data-center re-rating as a failed breakout; secondary confirmation if the 2026-07-23 Q2 print lands revenue under the $3.45B guide midpoint, book-to-bill below 1.0, or walks back the ~$1B 2026 data-center target. --- ### STRL — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: The prior $550 break condition landed: last close $516.81 on 2026-08-21, 48% under the 2026-06-04 high, RSI 32.3 — while Q2 (2026-08-03) delivered revenue $1,168.2M (+90% YoY) and a raised $19.70–20.30 adjusted EPS guide. Targets are chasing price down (D.A. Davidson opened at $700 on 2026-08-21) and nothing company-scheduled lands before the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 extends the de-rate past the $550 shelf that failed on 2026-08-21 and past the record Q2 (revenue $1,168.2M, +90% YoY). Secondary: an FY26 adjusted EPS guide cut beneath $19.70 at the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print, or combined backlog printing lower than the $5.62B of 2026-06-30. --- ### STRO — Sutro Biopharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Single-asset binary now inside its own catalyst window: the STRO-004 (DAR8 Tissue Factor exatecan ADC) Phase 1 readout was guided "mid-2026" and that window is expiring undated. Price has gone flat at ~$29.7 for four weeks after the June bounce off ~$25 — a coiled wait, not an accelerating leg, with a $100M ATM armed over the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 forfeits the June-July consolidation shelf and the recovery base built off the ~$25 low; secondarily, a STRO-004 Phase 1 print showing dose-limiting toxicities or zero objective responses, or an ATM-funded equity raise executed ahead of the data. --- ### STUB — StubHub Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STUB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-13 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Travel & leisure, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: June's busted-IPO recovery leg has fully reversed. D.C.'s RESALE Act (10% resale-markup cap, effective 2027-01-01) plus a Texas AG probe into undelivered World Cup tickets broke the experience-economy narrative; at ~$8.60 STUB trades below its lowest analyst target ($9) with the Aug 12 Q2 print the next binary. No clean long — the setup does not clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.40 confirms the fully-retraced June–July recovery and opens a retest of the $5.74 52-week low; contagion of the D.C. RESALE Act markup cap (effective 2027-01-01) into larger states, or an adverse Texas AG finding, would deepen the break. --- ### SUPV — Grupo Supervielle S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SUPV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Q2 beat, tape ignored it: adjusted EPS $0.29 vs $0.13 consensus on 2026-08-10, NIM +253bps to 20.3% — yet SUPV closed $8.05 on 2026-08-14 at RSI 24, with bank ADRs leading the Merval lower and country risk back to 479bps. The company catalyst has passed; what is left is the peso band and the 2026-08-26 legislative session. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 breaks the post-midterm shelf that has held since 2025-10-27 and unwinds the reform re-rating; secondary: the peso fixing printing through 1,500/USD, or the 2026-08-26 legislative session passing with country risk still above ~450bps. --- ### SVV — Savers Value Village, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SVV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Busted-IPO thrift retailer's June recovery has stalled and rolled back toward its ~$9 base as the June 27 Russell-deletion passive-bid loss bites; the July 30 Q2 print is now an imminent, FX-exposed binary rather than a five-weeks-away event. The trade-down narrative is maturing, not accelerating — a name whose setup does not clear ahead of the print, not a momentum leg to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.90 breaks the May–June recovery base (also forfeiting the 200-day near $9.21) and opens a retest of the $6.91 52-week low; a Q2 comps print on July 30 under the +2.5% FY guide floor, or a cut to the FY revenue/EBITDA outlook, confirms the stall. --- ### SXC — Suncoke Energy Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Coal-policy sympathy trade is fully dead: SXC has gone nowhere for three weeks, $8.39 on 2026-06-27 to $8.37 on 2026-07-17, pinned to the $8 shelf with no narrative velocity. The only live variable is the Q2 print, pulled forward to 2026-07-30 pre-market (announced 2026-07-16) from the prior ~08-04 estimate. Binary, not a momentum setup. Kill line: A daily close below $7.90 breaks the ~$8 breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA in one move, confirming the June policy spike round-tripped into a full fade; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts or hedges the $230–250M FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide is the secondary condition that turns the base into a downtrend. --- ### SYNA — Synaptics Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYNA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: Standalone story ended at the 2026-06-25 all-stock takeout; The week to 2026-08-21 proved it — ON -10.2%, SYNA -10.1%, discount still ~2.5% (1.350 x $74.21 = $100.18 vs $97.66). The S-4 filed 2026-08-21 puts the vote on the clock and discloses an outside date of 2027-06-25, extendable to 2028-03-25. Kill line: A weekly close below $90 opens a discount wider than 10% to the 1.350-ratio implied value at onsemi's 2026-08-21 close of $74.21 — break repricing rather than acquirer beta. Secondary: a disclosed China SAMR phase-two review, or the 2026-08-21 S-4 not effective by end-October 2026. --- ### TAL — TAL Education Group URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: Legacy-pivot re-rating still intact on fundamentals — Q1 FY2027 revenue +31.9% to $758.4M with selling and marketing down 5% — but the post-print impulse has largely round-tripped: $12.16 on 2026-08-11 to $11.32 on 2026-08-21, RSI 37.2, and the $11.00 gap shelf now under 3% below. No company-dated resolver until Q2 (~2026-10-29, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 completes the round-trip of the 2026-07-30 post-print gap and ends this leg; secondarily, a Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing selling and marketing expense growing faster than revenue, or gross margin below the 54.9% year-ago level. --- ### TASK — TaskUs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TASK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-19 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Physical AI & robotics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Mix-shift re-rating: AI Services hit $66.1M (+25.8%) in Q2 CY2026 on 2026-08-05 — seventh straight quarter above 25% — and is guided above 30% YoY in Q4 on AV/robotics work, against a 25%-of-revenue Trust & Safety book the market assumes AI is automating. Beat-and-raise print, but Q3 revenue guided under consensus and no company catalyst until the ~November report. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.60 surrenders the entire post-2026-08-05 earnings advance (shares printed $6.64 after hours on the release). Secondary: a Q3 report (~2026-11-04, est.) showing AI Services growth under ~25% or the guided >30% Q4 acceleration walked back. --- ### TBI — Trueblue, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-05 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Deep-cyclical industrial staffer re-rated +140% off the $3.18 low on a staffing-demand recovery and a data-center/energy labor boom lifting PeopleReady +19% YoY. Still loss-making (Q1 net -$19.8M), margins compressed, and the industrial-staffing index has cooled from +10% to +2% YoY. The 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the profitability-inflection binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 forfeits the recovery leg off the $3.18 low; further confirmed if the 2026-08-04 Q2 print delivers another adjusted-EBITDA loss with gross margin missing the guided 21.1%–21.5%, or the industrial-staffing index turns negative YoY. --- ### TBRG — TruBridge, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Thesis: Closed and now formally deregistered: the IKS Health merger became effective 2026-07-09 at $26.25/share cash, Form 25 filed the same day, Form 15-12G on 2026-07-24. The adjusted series ends 2026-07-08 at $26.24. A screen still surfacing TBRG at RSI 75 and 0.0% off its 52-week high is reading a terminated tape, not an accelerating one. Kill line: A daily close below $26.25 cannot print — the adjusted series ends 2026-07-08 at $26.24, shares converted to cash at the 2026-07-09 effective time, and Form 15-12G was filed 2026-07-24. Only a new US-listed successor security would reopen the file. --- ### TDOC — Teladoc Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TDOC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The Walmart/insurance-pivot re-rating broke at the 2026-07-29 Q2 print: revenue -4% YoY, BetterHelp -12%, FY26 revenue guide cut ~5% at the midpoint. What remains is $774M cash and a maintained $130-170M FCF guide against a shrinking top line — and nothing dated resolves the in-network transition before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 round-trips the entire Walmart-deal re-rating and returns price to the $4.40-$6 zone; a Q3 print (~late October) with BetterHelp paying users under Q2's 0.346M plus another FY revenue guide cut would confirm the in-network transition is not stabilizing. --- ### TDUP — ThredUp Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TDUP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Tariff/de-minimis "secondhand wins" narrative broke on the 2026-08-05 Q2 print: revenue beat at $90.8M but FY2026 guidance was cut to $344.4–348.4M and Q3/Q4 guided below consensus. Price round-tripped to $3.07 on 2026-08-14, -74.6% from the $12.08 high, RSI 18.5. What's left is an oversold high-beta small cap with no company catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.80 puts price inside the pre-re-rate $2–3 zone with no 2026 structure beneath it; a second FY2026 revenue cut at the ~November Q3 print, or any reduction to the ~4.7% FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guide, would confirm a de-rating rather than a one-time promotional reset. --- ### TECH — Bio-Techne Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TECH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Closed merger-arb pinned $0.60 under Merck KGaA's $73.00 all-cash bid — 2026-08-14 close $72.40, also the 52-week high. Q4 printed 08-12 with no call and no FY27 guidance; Wells Fargo folded to a $73 target on 08-13. Coverage is fully saturated; the whole remaining return is sub-1% spread carry into an undated shareholder vote and undated antitrust clearance. Kill line: A daily close below $70 widens the gross spread past 4% against the $73.00 cash bid, which does not happen absent a regulatory or timing shock; a disclosed second request or EU Phase 2, or a definitive proxy setting the special meeting beyond year-end 2026, is the secondary confirmation. --- ### TEM — Tempus AI, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Second-order re-rating: Merck/Moderna's 2026-08-19 Phase 3 INTerpath-001 win — the first positive readout for an individualised neoantigen therapy — repriced TEM as the listed owner of the MRD sequencing layer via its pending $1.5B Personalis deal. Price closed $72.69 on 2026-08-21 with RSI 82.4 and no dated binary inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 retraces the entire 2026-08-19 post-readout gap and returns price to the pre-catalyst shelf; secondary condition — a Personalis proxy or antitrust delay pushing the close past Q1 2027, or full INTerpath-001 data presented with no Personalis assay in the workflow. --- ### TENB — Tenable Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TENB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) confirmed the AI-platform leg — revenue $268.5M +8.6%, Tenable One 50% of new business vs 41% in Q1, FY26 raised to $1.075–1.081B — but the sell-side cut into the beat (five PT cuts, Piper downgrade to $30) and a disclosed short landed 2026-08-07. Price $38.33 sits above the ~$30.30 consensus with no dated catalyst until the late-October print. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 forfeits the 2026-07-06 upgrade gap and returns price to the ~$30.30 consensus zone. Secondary: a Q3 FY26 print (est. late Oct) holding FY26 at $1.075–1.081B while Tenable One's share of new business retreats from 50%. --- ### TENX — Tenax Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TENX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-08-28 Thesis: Phase 3 binary resolved negative: LEVEL missed its primary (6MWD +3.5m, p=0.63) and key secondary on 2026-08-10; four desks cut within 24h and the target band went from $27–$50 to $4–$5. Narrative is dead. What is left is a balance-sheet question — $118.0M cash at 2026-06-30 against 31.9M shares — with no base formed and RSI(14) at 9.8. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.55 breaks the post-failure capitulation zone and shows the balance-sheet bid failing; a Type C FDA outcome with no defined enriched-population registrational path, or an equity raise priced under $2, would confirm. --- ### TER — Teradyne, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TER/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Parabolic AI-test leg broke hard: $483.84 closing ATH (2026-06-30) to $322.36 (2026-07-17), −33% in twelve sessions on a memory-glut scare, with the whole $446–$550 analyst band now stranded above spot. Company guided Q2 revenue DOWN sequentially to $1.15–1.25B. The 2026-07-28 print is the binary that decides shakeout vs. cycle top. Kill line: A weekly close below $296 breaks the 2026-07-17 flush low and confirms the AI-test de-rate is a trend change rather than a shakeout; secondary break is a Q2 print (2026-07-28) landing at or under the $1.15B low end of company guidance with no second-half raise. --- ### TGTX — TG Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TGTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-18 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The catalyst leg is spent; what is left is whether the $46–48 shelf holds through a two-month news vacuum into year-end subcutaneous Phase 3 topline. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 loses the June breakout-retest shelf and returns price to the pre-MG-print range near $42; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03, est.) that fails to lift the $890–905M US BRIUMVI guide or shows US net revenue below the $227.7M Q2 level. --- ### TH — Target Hospitality Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: The AI-datacenter-landlord re-rate has stalled: TH peaked at $20.85 and has given back ~21% to $16.36 (2026-07-17) as TDR Capital affiliates distribute shares in-kind to partners, losing the $17 secondary clearing shelf while Oppenheimer lifted its target to $24. Backlog is real ($2B+); the tape is now supply-driven. The 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the first read on data-center revenue conversion. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 confirms the distribution leg and opens the ~$12–13 April breakout base; secondary conditions: an 8-K disclosing delay or downsizing of the North Texas or AI Infrastructure campus, or an FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $370M floor at the 2026-08-06 print. --- ### THC — Tenet Healthcare Corporation New URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/THC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Hospital margin-expansion re-rating extended to a new 52-week high of $280.77 (2026-08-21), now above the $273.00 average sell-side target, while revision flow thinned to one new number since 2026-08-03 and six insiders sold into the move 2026-07-27→2026-08-06. Nothing company-scheduled until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print; the 2026-09-08 Wells Fargo conference is the only dated venue. Kill line: A weekly close below $262 breaks the August extension above the prior 52-week high of $262.63 and returns price into the post-print range; secondary, the 2026-09-08–10 Wells Fargo healthcare conference passing with no Tenet appearance and no new numbers while no further target raises land into the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### TIC — TIC Solutions, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TIC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-12 Themes: M&A & special situations Thesis: Post-merger re-rate: engineering/geospatial backlog hit a record $1.18B (+20% YoY) on 2026-08-06 while legacy inspection fell ~5.5% combined, and UBS's 2026-08-11 upgrade (Buy, PT $12.50 from $11.00) prices an inflection that Q2's +2.5% organic growth has not yet shown. RSI 79.5 at the 2026-08-14 close of $9.85, with no company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 erases most of the post-2026-08-06 advance. Secondary: Inspection & Mitigation failing to return to growth at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05 est.) after a ~5.5% combined decline in Q2, or FY2026 revenue tracking under the $2.15B guide low end. --- ### TLN — Talen Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Nuclear & uranium Thesis: Contracted-floor re-rating has stopped paying: the 2026-08-05 Q2 raised FY26 Adj EBITDA guidance to $2,025–2,225M and PJM's 2028/29 auction cleared >10 GW at the $325/MW-day cap, yet the stock closed $347.71 on 2026-08-07, 22% below the $445.84 high, with the July $365 shelf broken. Fundamentals improving into a thin bid; single-name narrative reads saturated. Kill line: A weekly close below $325 confirms the post-print lower-low sequence and extends the drawdown past 27% from the $445.84 52-week high; secondary: no confirmation of the AWS front-of-the-meter reconfiguration, or FY26 guidance walked back below the $2,025M floor, at the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.). --- ### TLRY — Tilray Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-25 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cannabis reclassification, Bitcoin miners Next catalyst: 2026-08-17 Thesis: Reform binary spent without resolving: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with only a 2026-08-17 briefing deadline and no ALJ timeline, so Schedule III is now an open-ended administrative process. TLRY printed a fresh 52-week low of $4.20 on 2026-07-08 during the hearing itself and sits below the 200-day into Q4 earnings 2026-07-28. Broken structure, no dated catalyst. Kill line: A daily close below $4.20 breaks the 2026-07-08 52-week low and confirms the downtrend; the constructive case only re-opens on a daily close above $5.00, and separately if the Q4 print on 2026-07-28 misses the reaffirmed $62–72M FY adjusted-EBITDA band. --- ### TMC — TMC the metals company Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Bitcoin miners, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-21 Thesis: The deep-sea-mining reshoring leg is broken: TMC has cut through the $3.93 prior 52-week low to a fresh $3.57 low near $3.74, roughly -67% from the $11.35 high, with no bid and no near-term catalyst. The decisive NOAA license decision is guided to end-Q1 2027; a 2026-07-31 royalty-funding deadline sits in front of it. No base, no entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.57 extends the new-low downtrend and keeps the name uninvestable; on the recovery side, the thesis only re-arms on a weekly close back above $5.00 (reclaiming the lost shelf) with the 2026-07-31 TMCR royalty funding closed without a large parent-level equity raise. --- ### TNDM — Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNDM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Beaten-down insulin-pump turnaround; the whole re-rate hinges on the tubeless Mobi ("Toby") 510(k) — planned for a Q2 filing but still unconfirmed after the quarter closed 2026-06-30 — plus margins scaling toward a ~60% Q4 exit. Shares bounced off the floor to ~$17 but sell-side stays neutral (Mizuho cut to $20). The 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 forfeits the July recovery base and re-opens the downtrend toward the $9.98 52-week floor. Secondary: the tubeless Mobi 510(k) still unconfirmed at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print, a FY2026 sales guide cut below $1.065B, or diabetes-AID leadership staying with Insulet's Omnipod. --- ### TORO — Toro Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TORO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Panagiotidis shipping shell (NOT lawnmower TTC) ran 1.93→8.50 on a sub-NAV/special-dividend story that is now fully paid out and closed. Six weeks of dead tape since the 2026-06-05 payout ($3.8M cash + 5,707,246 NEW shares); on a true ~34.6M share count the cap is ~$171M against a ~$78M cash pile. Screens still quote 25.61M shares and understate the cap by a third. No fresh leg. Kill line: A daily close below $4.50 breaks the post-dividend base and opens an air-pocket toward the diluted ~$2.25/share cash floor. Secondary: the ~late-Aug 2026 H1 print passing without an all-cash capital return or accretive fleet M&A confirms there is no replacement catalyst. --- ### TRIP — TripAdvisor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRIP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Travel & leisure, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Activist sum-of-the-parts leg broke: Q2 revenue $441.9M missed consensus $503.9M on 2026-08-06 (~-20% day), four targets cut to $9–$12.50 by 08-11, and the $11–13 base gave way to a $10.74 close on 2026-08-14 with RSI 25. What's left is an undated Experiences-distribution pivot (Airbnb, 08-11) against metasearch revenue -21% YoY. Kill line: A weekly close below $10 (the level JP Morgan's 2026-08-07 Underweight target marks, under the lost $11–13 base) confirms the declining-core case is being priced; secondary: the TheFork/Amex close passing year-end 2026 without a follow-on strategic transaction. --- ### TSAT — Telesat Corporation Class A Common Shares and Class B Variable Voting Shares URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSAT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-09 Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace Thesis: Legacy GEO operator re-rating on a funded LEO pivot: 2026-08-04 C$2.3B, 15-year Canadian Arctic Mil-Ka contract expands Lightspeed 156→225 satellites and lifts the 2032 revenue target to US$4.9B from US$3.2B. Price closed at the 52-week high $58.92 (RSI 77.4) four sessions before the 2026-08-13 Q2 print, with US$3.2B of program capex still to be funded. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 gives back the 2026-08-04 award shelf; secondary, the 2026-08-13 Q2 print passing with an FY2026 guidance cut or an equity-linked raise to close the US$3.2B remaining Lightspeed funding requirement. --- ### TSHA — Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSHA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Clinical binary printed clean (2026-06-22: 100% milestone response N=12, zero treatment-related SAEs) but the next catalyst slipped to H1 2027 — pivotal six-month interim AND FDA BLA-pathway feedback both guided to the first half of next year. Stock is pinned at ~$5.96 under its $6.00 June offering price with ~3 quarters of empty calendar ahead. De-risked asset, absent trade. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.25 loses the post-offering consolidation floor and turns placement digestion into distribution. Secondary: a further slip in the H1 2027 pivotal interim guidance at the Q2 print, an FDA demand for a randomized/sham-controlled pivotal, or any treatment-related SAE or DLT in the pivotal/ASPIRE cohorts. --- ### TXN — Texas Instruments Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TXN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-07-22 ($5.46B, +23% YoY, EPS $2.14 vs $1.91) was sold, and three weeks later price is still flat — $279.58 on 2026-08-14, 15.4% under the $330.59 high, RSI 51.1. Fundamentals confirmed, price discovery stalled, nothing TI-specific dated inside 30 days; ADI's 2026-08-19 print is the nearest read on the analog cycle. Kill line: A weekly close below $272 breaks the shelf the post-print range has been built on and extends the July sell-the-news unwind; secondary: ADI on 2026-08-19 or TI's ~2026-10-20 Q3 report describing sequential order declines in analog, or Q3 revenue below the $5.65B guide floor. --- ### UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UCTT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Freight & logistics, AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-25 Thesis: WFE upcycle intact fundamentally but the tape broke: -35% from the $142.59 all-time close (2026-06-30) back under the ~$95 breakout shelf on sector-wide selling with no company news. Failed breakout, no support to $80.55, binary Q2 print 2026-08-03 AMC. The setup needs a base, not a bounce. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 breaks the $80.55 June base and turns the July retrace into a trend reversal; secondary condition is Lam or Applied cutting the $140–145B 2026 WFE figure, or a Q3 guide on 2026-08-03 below ~$580M. --- ### UI — Ubiquiti Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-05 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical, Squeeze & momentum setups, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-08-21 Thesis: Broken parabola gone flat: six weeks of $530–$570 chop after the May 8 print (GM 47.0%, rev +18.7%, but EPS $3.88 vs ~$4.42 whisper) with zero scheduled catalyst until the Q4 FY26 report on 2026-08-21. Fundamentals intact, tape dead, multiple already reset to ~34.8x — nothing to engage until the print gives the range a direction. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 breaks the six-week $530–$570 post-crash shelf and turns May into the first leg rather than the whole move, with the $380.00 52-week low as the next reference; a Q4 FY26 print on 2026-08-21 showing GAAP gross margin back under 42% or revenue below the $788.2M run-rate is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### UNIT — Uniti Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UNIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-30 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, M&A & special situations Thesis: Hyperscaler dark-fiber demand turned the post-Windstream deleveraging grind into a growth story (~$1.5B disclosed funnel, $68.7M of Q1 IRU revenue from one hyperscaler), but the June re-rate to ~$11 has stalled in a three-week range above a $10.47 consensus target. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the next binary on a >10x-levered credit. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.80 forfeits the June hyperscaler-funnel breakout leg and puts the $7.50–7.80 pre-run shelf back in play; secondary breaks are the 2026-07-30 Q2 print cutting FY2026 guidance below $3.63B revenue / $1.45B adjusted EBITDA, or the ~$91.1M Oklahoma prefunding failing regulatory approval and reverting to note prepayment. --- ### USO — United States Oil Fund, LP URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/USO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-19 Thesis: Hormuz has been shut since late February and USO still closed 2026-08-14 at $126.60, 17.2% under its $152.96 high — the market has stopped paying for escalation. The 2026-08-12 EIA +17.423M bbl build and OPEC's demand-growth cut to 580K b/d moved price harder than three Gulf attacks did. A saturated, two-sided, undated premium. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 confirms the market has re-based a closed Strait of Hormuz as ordinary supply and retired the war premium; secondary confirmation if the 2026-08-19 or 2026-08-26 EIA report shows a second consecutive above-consensus crude build, or an Oman-brokered reopening is signed. --- ### UTZ — Utz Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UTZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Event fired and fully priced: the 2026-08-14 close of $14.17 sits $0.08 under Intersnack's $14.25 all-cash offer, and the 2026-08-05 Q2 miss moved nothing. What remains is a sub-1% gross spread to a company-guided Q4 2026 close against a ~$7.50 unaffected level. No momentum leg; the narrative is saturated and the merger proxy is not yet on file. Kill line: A daily close below $13.50 marks the merger spread widening past anything printed since the 2026-07-21 announcement; secondarily, a close back toward the ~$7.50 unaffected area, or Q4 2026 passing with no closing and no new dated timeline, would confirm the $14.25 Intersnack deal has broken. --- ### VECO — Veeco Instruments Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VECO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Thesis: Merger-arb tracking stock for Axcelis: fixed 0.3575 ACLS/VECO, both votes cleared 2026-02-06, only China SAMR remains before the 2026-09-30 outside date. ACLS's slide to ~$134 de-pegged VECO to a premium over the exchange ratio (~$48) — market pricing standalone-floor/deal-break odds, not momentum. Live binary is a slow Chinese regulator; ACLS is the fuller-participation vehicle. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 — a decisive break through the ~0.3575×ACLS exchange-ratio value (~$48) confirming the arb spread blowing out on rising deal-break odds; corroborated by SAMR shifting from simplified to normal review, a formal block, or the deal slipping past the 2026-09-30 outside date. --- ### VERI — Veritone, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation, Defense & aerospace Thesis: Enterprise-AI growth story broken: FY2026 revenue guide cut ~23% at the midpoint to $100–115M on 2026-08-13 vs $135.032M consensus, ARR flat at $62.0M. What is left is a refinancing binary — $45.6M of 1.75% converts mature 2026-11-15 against $12.7M cash at 2026-06-30, with going-concern doubt already disclosed. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.00 — the Nasdaq minimum-bid threshold — confirms the structural break and starts the 30-business-day deficiency clock; secondarily, 2026-11-15 passing with the $45.6M 1.75% converts neither exchanged nor refinanced. --- ### VERU — Veru Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The Novo squeeze is fully round-tripped and the funding answer arrived on 2026-07-02: a $21.8M at-the-market program via Oppenheimer/Canaccord. At $2.42 (07-15) that is ~9M shares against ~16M outstanding — the company will now sell stock into every rally. No live narrative leg; PLATEAU interim data is Q1 2027. Kill line: A daily close below $2.25 completes the round-trip to the pre-Novo shelf and opens the $2.05 52-week low; the setup only re-arms on a reclaim and hold of the $3.00 warrant strike with the ATM demonstrably unused. --- ### VIA — Via Transportation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility Thesis: Busted-IPO transit-software re-rating: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise (FY26 guide up to $550–553M, adj. EBITDA loss narrowed to $3.4M, Q4 positive-EBITDA goal reiterated) turned a chart 70% below its $46 IPO price into an +80.3% three-month move. Leg is fresh but extended — RSI(14) 80.5, and the 2026-08-21 close of $26.99 already sits inside the freshest $30–$32 target band. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 surrenders the entire advance built since the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise and returns price toward the pre-print zone; secondarily, Q3 revenue landing beneath the $137.6M guide floor at the ~2026-11-12 report, or the Q4 positive-adjusted-EBITDA goal being dropped. --- ### VIAV — Viavi Solutions Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-08-26 Thesis: Networking-optical test theme still accelerating and the laggard test-and-measurement sleeve is finally re-rating: Susquehanna lifted its target to $66 (2026-07-01) and the small-cap-over-hyperscaler rotation flagged 2026-06-29 favors smaller infra names. But it's freshly diluted ($500M at $45, 2026-05-20) with no company event until the ~mid-August FQ4 print — a laggard-chase into a catalyst desert until it bases above the $45 offering shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $45.00 flags the diluted float failing to hold its May-2026 offering shelf. Secondary confirmation: NSE book-to-bill back under 1.0 on the ~mid-August FQ4 print, or the photonics leaders (LITE/COHR/EUV) rolling over on lower highs. --- ### VICR — Vicor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VICR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Operating numbers still inflecting (Q2 guide ~$142M, book-to-bill >2.0, backlog $300.6M) but the chart has broken: $237.62 on 2026-07-17 is ~38% off the $382.65 July high, with $271 and $300 both lost and relentless CEO 10b5-1 supply. The 2026-07-21 Q2 print is a binary one trading day out — the setup does not clear until a base forms. Kill line: A weekly close below $221 gives back the entire post-2026-05-26 guidance-raise re-rating and confirms the July $382.65 peak as a distribution top; a Q2 book-to-bill under 1.0 on 2026-07-21, or the power theme stepping down to saturated, would ratify it independently. --- ### VIR — Vir Biotechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $238.9M revenue and $0.47 diluted EPS on Astellas upfront recognition — an accounting swing, and the tape read it as one: $9.24 on 2026-08-14, still under the $10.36 Astellas equity strike, with Morgan Stanley and Leerink both cutting targets the next day. Nothing hard is dated until ECLIPSE 1 topline in Q4 2026. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.60 voids the June reclaim structure, losing both the 2026-06-17 swing low at $8.86 and the mid-July 50-DMA shelf near $8.71. Secondary breaks: ECLIPSE 1 topline restated past Q4 2026, or VIR-5818 Phase 1 data guided out of H2 2026 at the Q3 print. --- ### VKTX — Viking Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VKTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The ~$34 line from July gave way — $33.19 close on 2026-08-14, -21.2% from the $42.13 high. Only company-guided 2026 event left is the VK2735 maintenance-dose readout (3Q26); pivotal VANQUISH topline is 2027. JPMorgan cut its target to $65 from $75 on 2026-08-11 while consensus sits near $99.50. Saturated narrative with a thin marginal bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 forfeits the low-$30s zone and opens the $22.96 52-week low; secondary, the 3Q26 window closing on 2026-09-30 with no VK2735 maintenance-dose data released, leaving no company-guided event before 2027 pivotal topline. --- ### VMI — Valmont Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VMI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Beat-and-raise was sold: the 2026-07-21 Q2 beat ($6.14 vs $5.75) plus a raised FY26 guide gave way to a ~13% 30-day drawdown, and the $520 weekly shelf broke. Grid fundamentals intact, the re-rating leg unwinding, no base and no dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-20 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $470 takes out the pre-Investor-Day range and confirms the 2026 grid re-rating in this name is unwinding; secondary condition, the ~2026-10-20 Q3 print passing with North America Utility growth under the mid-teens and still no weekly close back above $520. --- ### VOR — Vor Biopharma Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VOR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Legacy-pivot re-rating held its breakout through the 2026-08-11 Q2 miss — $23.36 close on 2026-08-21 against $23.67 on 08-07 — but the same release disclosed $48.4M of ATM stock sold into July strength. With UPSTREAM MG topline guided 1H2027 and the Q2 print behind it, no dated company event now sits inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 loses the post-print consolidation and returns price into the $19–$21 shelf that capped the tape through early July; secondary condition: ATM issuance above the July $48.4M pace disclosed in the Q3 10-Q, or any slip in the 1H2027 UPSTREAM MG topline guide. --- ### VPG — Vishay Precision Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The AI-precision re-rate broke at the print: Q2 (2026-08-05) missed on revenue ($83.936M vs $84.646M) and adjusted EPS ($0.04 vs $0.19), Q3 guide midpoint sits below consensus, and the stock gapped -26.95% to $73.78 and has since made lower lows at $67.29 (2026-08-11). Orders held at 1.14 book-to-bill; margins did not. Price now sits on the $65.63 200-day with no dated catalyst for ~3 months. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 loses the 200-day average, the last structural reference under the June advance, and confirms the post-print unwind is extending rather than basing; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with adjusted EPS again under $0.10 on revenue inside the $84–89M guide would establish the margin break as structural rather than FX and KELK timing. --- ### VREX — Varex Imaging Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VREX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Signed all-cash takeout: Teledyne agreed on 2026-08-10 to buy Varex at $18.90/share (~$1.1B). The 2026-08-14 close of $18.49 leaves roughly $0.41 of gross gap into a closing guided for early calendar 2027 with a 2027-05-10 outside date. The equity narrative is finished; what trades now is completion probability and time. Kill line: A daily close below $17.50 (gross gap wider than ~7% to the $18.90 cash price) marks completion risk being priced rather than time value; secondarily, an 8-K disclosing an antitrust second request or a foreign Phase 2 review, or the 2027-05-10 outside date passing without a close. --- ### VRNS — Varonis Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VRNS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Take-private leg is aging without confirmation: two months after the 2026-06-23 Bloomberg report there is no bidder, price or 13D, an unexplained 9.3% mid-August pop round-tripped inside six sessions, and the 2026-08-21 close of $41.23 sits below every post-print target ($45–58). The 2026-09-09 Citi TMT appearance is the only dated public event before the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $39 cedes the post-report advance back toward the 2026-06-23 report-day close of $35.03; a report that talks ended, or the 2026-09-09 Citi TMT appearance passing with no process reference, compounds it. --- ### VSH — Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Cycle-turn re-rate has fully round-tripped: down ~46% from $69.47 to the high-$30s, now under the $50 June placement and below every covering analyst's target. Q1's 1.34 book-to-bill and $1.6B backlog were real but sit at ~35x forward into a broken tape. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether the cyclical recovery survives or the multiple keeps compressing. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 confirms the full round-trip of the cycle-turn re-rate and opens the pre-Q1 congestion in the high $20s; secondarily, a 2026-08-05 Q2 print with book-to-bill back under 1.0 or gross margin stalling at or below 22% breaks the volume-and-margin recovery outright. --- ### VSXY — Victorias Secret & Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Turnaround re-accelerated with no new number: the July mid-$70s range broke, a $99.97 52-week high printed, then 11% came back into the 2026-09-03 Q2 report. Consensus target $91.40 sits ~3% over the $89.02 close on 2026-08-14, so the print — not flow — underwrites the next leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $79 unwinds the August breakout and returns price to the July mid-$70s digestion band; secondarily, a 2026-09-03 Q2 print that leaves the FY2026 adjusted operating-income guide of $550–580M unchanged, or lands Q2 at/below the $1.590B low end. --- ### W — Wayfair Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/W/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Margin-inflection turnaround has stalled: after the June Evercore-driven pop, W has faded ~10% back to the ~$84–85 recovery base ahead of the binary Aug 4 Q2 print. Wedbush's Jul 16 Neutral/$104 initiation and a ~$100-capped consensus mark a maturing theme — price sitting on the invalidation line with earnings inside two weeks is a stand-aside, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $83 fills the June 23 Evercore gap and loses the $84–85 recovery base; secondary breaks: the Aug 4 Q2 print showing adjusted EBITDA margin under the guided 6–7% or revenue decelerating below mid-single-digit YoY, or the consumer-brands-rotation theme flipping to saturated. --- ### WDAY — Workday, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: The 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print — cRPO against a guided 13.5–14.5% band — is the binary that lands first. Kill line: A daily close below $180 unwinds the take-private premium back to the 2026-08-07 close of $179.64; secondarily, a 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print with cRPO growth beneath the guided 13.5–14.5% band, or the Silver Lake process being publicly denied or lapsing with no bid price disclosed. --- ### WEAV — Weave Communications, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services Thesis: Beaten-down vertical-SaaS front-office platform for healthcare SMBs, down ~36% YTD and basing off the $4.24 low, repositioning around AI-receptionist monetization (TrueLark, 2025). Still a ~17% grower with GAAP losses, so the re-rate is optionality not yet in the numbers; a reclaim of the $8.28 52-week high with AI-revenue proof is the trigger, and the ~Aug 6 Q2 print is the catalyst. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 breaks the recovery base off the April $4.24 low and voids the AI-monetization re-rating setup; a Q2 print (~Aug 6) showing revenue growth decelerating under 15% with no AI-revenue disclosure is the secondary break. --- ### WGS — GeneDx Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WGS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Busted-growth genomics name; the recovery off the −49% May guide-cut crash has stalled in the low-$60s, below the $74.83 200-day. The confirmed Aug 3 Q2 print (blended ARR vs the ~$3,300 baseline) is the binary — the same day as the class-action lead-plaintiff deadline. Mean-reversion into an event, not a fresh accelerating leg; the setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 breaks the June recovery shelf and the rising 50-day near $56.56, reopening the path to the $32.21 May low; a Q2 blended ARR (Aug 3) below ~$3,300 confirms the busted-growth regime. --- ### WHD — Cactus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: International wellhead order narrative from the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat is intact, but the re-rating leg is largely spent: Citigroup cut to Neutral on 2026-08-20 while raising its target to $75, and the shares closed $69.43 on 2026-08-21, 5.8% off the $73.73 closing high with RSI back to 63.6. Nothing company-specific resolves before the Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.). Kill line: A daily close below $66 loses the August range built after the Q2 print, putting price under the 2026-08-07 close of $67.90 and the $67.6489 COO sale print; secondary, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) with Pressure Control worse than the guided -10% sequential. --- ### WING — Wingstop Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WING/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-13 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Two analyst target cuts in ten days (Wells Fargo to $170, DA Davidson to $200) into the 2026-07-29 Q2 print signal de-risking ahead of the H2 comp-turn binary; a ~50% relief bounce off the $116.35 low is unproven, and the print — not momentum — sets direction with earnings two trading days out. Kill line: A weekly close below $160 forfeits the TD Cowen fair-value shelf and the recovery base off the $116.35 low; confirmation comes if the 2026-07-29 print delivers a second consecutive negative domestic same-store-sales quarter with a cut to the FY2026 guide. --- ### WK — Workiva Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Earnings-power re-rate: Q2 on 2026-08-04 hit a 16.8% non-GAAP operating margin — the 2027 target, a year early — and lifted the FY26 adjusted EPS guide from $2.85–2.95 to $3.38–3.39 on a revenue guide that barely moved. Activist Irenic's Rule-of-40/strategic-review push adds optionality, but price at $74.83 sits above both $70 post-print sell-side targets with RSI 77.1. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 hands back the post-Q2 advance and puts price under both published post-print sell-side targets; secondary break if Amplify (2026-09-14 to 09-16) passes with no quantified AI monetisation or reset margin target. --- ### WLFC — Willis Lease Finance Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WLFC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-08 Themes: Space economy, Small-cap value rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-08-24 Thesis: Engine-leasing supercycle still printing records (Q1 rev +23%, EPS $4.03 vs $3.02 est), but the theme is maturing and the stock has faded ~18% off its 2026-07-06 ATH into the now-completed 3-for-1 split. The event stack has collapsed to one binary — the 2026-08-04 Q2 print — so a fresh entry now buys straight into an earnings blackout. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 (post-split basis; loses the multi-month breakout base and rising 20-week trend). Secondary: a 2026-08-04 Q2 print with lease-rent flat-to-down QoQ, or IBA flipping engine lease rates from elevated to declining — theme rotating to saturated. --- ### WPP — WPP PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Post-relegation turnaround leg is now being re-rated by the sell side rather than by news: Citigroup lifted its target GBX 285→430 on 2026-08-10 while staying Neutral, and the 2026-08-06 results gap has held with the 2026-08-21 close at $26.37, 4.3% under the high. Only dated event inside 30 days is the ~2026-09-02 FTSE review; the next fundamental test is the ~2026-10-23 Q3 update. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 hands back more than half the 2026-08-06 results gap and breaks the re-rating leg; secondarily, the ~2026-09-02 FTSE review passing without a FTSE 100 return followed by failure to reclaim $27.55, or a Q3 update (est. ~2026-10-23) with like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs worse than Q2's −2.8%. --- ### WRLD — World Acceptance Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WRLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Post-print leg has cooled, not extended: the 2026-07-24 gap ran ~$181 to ~$208 but the 2026-08-14 close of $194.75 gives back half of it, RSI 48.9, -13.0% from the $223.83 high. The 2026-08-13 $50M buyback authorization is inclusive of prior unused capacity and drew no reclaim. No dated company binary until the ~2026-10-22 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $181 completes the 2026-07-24 earnings-gap fill and negates the post-print pop; a weekly close below $170 loses the June breakout shelf toward the $143.82–$156 published target cluster. Secondary: a second revenue miss on ~2026-10-22 or 0–60 dpd re-accelerating above 18.1% YoY. --- ### WSC — WillScot Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Space economy, M&A & special situations Thesis: Cyclical modular-space leasing recovery with a small data-center kicker and an activist/M&A floor, but range-bound and digesting: shares drifted to ~$26 under the $31.88 high after the 2026-06-27 Russell growth-index removal. The confirmed 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the binary on the H2 leasing inflection; no accelerating leg yet, so it stays a probe until a weekly close over $31.88 or a confirmed bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 loses the post-Q1 recovery base and the rising longer-term moving average; secondary: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print cutting the $915M FY26 Adj EBITDA guide, leasing still negative YoY, or a TOMS Capital exit removing the takeover floor. --- ### WSM — Williams-Sonoma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-08-27 Thesis: Sell-side re-rating leg: six price-target raises between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-14 (Goldman $261, RBC $192→$260, Telsey $255, Citi $248, two at $240) took WSM to a 52-week high of $251.78 on multiple expansion — RBC moved to 25x from 20x on 2027 EPS. The ~2026-08-27 Q2 print is the first company datapoint since 2026-05-21 and is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $225 unwinds the entire August revision-cluster advance and returns price to the July range; secondary break is a Q2 print (~2026-08-27) with comp at or below the +2% FY-guide floor, or any trim to the 17.5%–18.1% operating-margin guide. --- ### XENE — Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XENE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) cleared the last procedural gate — FDA pre-NDA meeting completed, azetukalner FOS NDA still guided to Q3 2026, cash $1,245.1M — and the stock still closed 2026-08-14 at $62.35, 12.1% below the $70.96 July high with RSI 39.3. The March de-risking is priced, and with the next efficacy binary (X-NOVA2, H1 2027) far out, the $62 shelf is the near-term question. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 breaks the post-X-TOLE2 consolidation shelf the 2026-08-14 close of $62.35 is sitting on; compounded if the FOS NDA is not submitted by 2026-09-30 or Biohaven's RISE3 focal-epilepsy topline reads out positive. --- ### XGN — Exagen Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Autoimmune-diagnostics re-rating on the 2026-08-04 Q2 print: revenue $19.941M vs $17.817M consensus, FY26 guide lifted to $72–75M, adjusted EBITDA loss down to $0.1M. Price ran from a $4.68 pre-print close to $7.92 on 2026-08-21 with RSI(14) at 86.7 and nothing dated resolving before the ~early-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.36 unwinds the entire 2026-08-04 post-print gap-up session and returns price to the pre-print range; secondary condition, the ~early-November Q3 2026 print leaving FY2026 guidance unraised at $72–75M. --- ### XHG — XChange TEC.INC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XHG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations Thesis: Sub-$1 China insurance ADS re-rated ~4x in two sessions on a 2026-08-13 non-binding LOI to acquire HK AI insurtech First Cycle — terms undisclosed, subject to definitive agreements. The leg being bought is an AI-insurance pivot; the FY2025 20-F (filed 2026-01-14) still carries a going-concern opinion. Nothing binding is scheduled to resolve inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $2.50 hands back half the 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-14 advance and breaks the announcement gap; secondary, the First Cycle LOI lapsing or converting to an all-stock deal with ADS issued near current levels. --- ### XOS — Xos, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, EV & autonomous mobility, AI chips & memory Thesis: First-ever U.S. Air Force award (prototype OTA for the Xos Hub mobile BESS, announced 2026-08-17, terms not disclosed) took the stock ~100% on 2026-08-18 and put a defense-pivot narrative on a going-concern EV maker that just missed Q2 revenue at $4.74M vs $14.3M consensus. Attention is fresh; the dollar value behind it is undisclosed and directors sold into the second day. Kill line: A daily close below $3.00 fills most of the 2026-08-18 defense-headline gap and points price back toward the pre-announcement $2.70 area; secondary condition — the Air Force OTA reaching the Q3 print (~2026-11-12 est.) with no disclosed contract value, delivery schedule or follow-on award. --- ### XRAY — DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Semi foundry & equipment, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Stock faded from $13.78 pre-print to $11.59 on 2026-08-14 — the narrative leg came and went, and the $11–12 shelf is what remains. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 breaks the low-teens shelf defended since spring and confirms the summer advance was a rally inside the downtrend; secondary: the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print showing a constant-currency decline worse than Q2's -6.3% or a cut to the $1.40–1.50 FY adjusted EPS guide. --- ### XRX — Xerox Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Distressed-deleveraging special situation that round-tripped its June activist pop into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print. At ~$2.60 it sits below the $2.75 Hold consensus and inside the $2.25–$2.50 target band; anchor buyer STARTEEPO (8.8M sh, ~6.84%, now #2 holder) just said it hit its "target ownership for the current phase" — the structural bid was the whole thesis and it has stated it's done. No momentum into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.43 loses the May base shelf and the entire post-activist structure, opening the path toward the $1.19 low; secondary: the 2026-07-30 Q2 print showing gross leverage still ≥7x with no FCF inflection, or a STARTEEPO 13D/A revealing a reduced stake. --- ### XTLB — XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XTLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Delisting binary fully resolved — Nasdaq confirmed compliance 2026-07-20 — and the pivot pop has bled off: no dated company release since, ADS $2.94 (2026-07-25) → $2.79 (2026-08-14), RSI 44.4. Event narrative is saturated; the next leg needs a first-trial-commencement or financing 6-K against a ~$7M cap carrying a going-concern flag and milestone dilution. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.70 loses the private-placement clearing price — the last level at which capital actually cleared — and opens the pre-merger range; a Nasdaq equity-rule breach notice under the one-year monitor, or a milestone/authorized-share issuance into the micro float, confirms the de-rating. --- ### XXI — Twenty One Capital, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: The one re-rate catalyst just died: Tether's Strike–Elektron three-way merger was scrapped on 2026-07-21 and CEO Jack Mallers quit, dropping XXI to a fresh all-time low near $4.46. A leveraged-Bitcoin-treasury proxy stuck below 1.0x float mNAV can't run its accretive flywheel from record lows — the story is broken, not merely cheap. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.46 confirms fresh all-time-low continuation, with the Strike–Elektron re-rate dead and the treasury flywheel reversed below NAV; the avoid stance only flips to a probe on a weekly reclaim of the low-$6s 20-EMA zone alongside BTC holding a higher low above $70k. --- ### YAAS — Youxin Technology Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YAAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: July's re-ignition failed: the 2026-07-14 RiverBit term sheet and 2026-07-15 Guangzhou AI agreement produced no higher low, and the response was a second reverse split (1-for-5, effective 2026-07-30). Two splits inside ten months now cumulate 400-to-1, which under Nasdaq 5810(c)(3)(A)(iv) removes any bid-price cure period. The squeeze narrative reads dead; the non-binding RiverBit milestone is the only live binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.50 (the July $0.50 zone converted at the 1-for-5 ratio) confirms the second consolidation was absorbed within weeks and the tape is making fresh post-split lows; secondarily, mid-September passing with no filing confirming a live RiverBit platform expires the last dated narrative. --- ### YEXT — Yext, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YEXT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Legacy presence-management vendor repositioning into answer-engine optimization; the recovery extended to $6.35 (2026-08-21), up 72.6% in three months with RSI(14) 69.6, on no operating datapoint newer than the 2026-06-02 Q1 print. On 2026-08-18 the company fixed the binary — Q2 FY2027 lands 2026-09-01 before the open, a week earlier than the prior estimate. Kill line: A daily close below $5.70 gives back the entire August advance leg and returns price beneath the $6–$7 shelf where support broke; secondary confirmation is the 2026-09-01 Q2 FY2027 print showing headline ARR flat-to-down from $440.8M with no organic ex-Hearsay split disclosed. --- ### YSS — York Space Systems Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YSS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy Thesis: Roll-up/defense-growth leg is broken: the 2026-08-13 FY26 guide cut to $375–405M from $545–595M (vs $560.341M consensus) is the first company-sourced confirmation the revenue base moved. Close $10.93 on 2026-08-14, -54.5% over 3m, RSI 20.8. What's left is a cash-and-backlog reset story with no base and no confirmed catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.86 (the level printed after the 2026-08-13 guidance cut) removes the only post-print reference and ends the basing case; secondarily, an FY27 outlook below the original FY26 $545–595M range, or backlog falling again from $592.0M at the ~November Q3 print. --- ### ZBRA — Zebra Technologies Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBRA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Physical AI & robotics, AI chips & memory Thesis: The post-print re-rating has stopped extending: after the 2026-08-04 guidance raise (adj EPS $6.35 vs $4.36; FY26 EPS to $20.75–$21.25) the shares topped at $383.06 and closed 2026-08-21 at $368.51 with RSI(14) 76.4, two open-market insider sales at $375–$378, and no company-dated catalyst until Q3 on 2026-11-03. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 retraces the 2026-08-04 guidance-raise gap and ends the leg; secondarily, Q3 on 2026-11-03 printing at or under the $4.70 low end of guidance with adjusted EBITDA margin beneath the ~22% frame. --- ### ZENA — ZenaTech, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZENA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Section 232 drone tariffs signed 2026-08-13 and effective 2026-09-03 re-rated the UAS cohort; ZENA is the sub-$3, issuance-funded expression, closing 2026-08-14 at $2.14 with RSI(14) 84.7 and still 68.0% under the $6.69 52-week high. Nothing published yet ties the tariff to ZenaTech's own Ontario-domiciled, UAE-assembled supply chain. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.95 surrenders the $2 handle and the May 2026 registered-direct unit price of $2.12; secondary break is the 2026-09-03 tariff effective date passing with no dollar-valued order or margin disclosure attached to ZenaTech. --- ### ZS — Zscaler, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Post-crash recovery leg is complete: the 2026-05-27 gap-down (~31.5% on a 16–17% FY27 growth frame) has been fully retraced to $181.75 (2026-08-21) with RSI 71.5, and six houses marked targets to $200–225 between 08-17 and 08-21 on no new disclosure. The 2026-09-03 Q4 print, carrying the first formal FY27 guide, is the binary and it is now being front-run. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 unwinds the August advance that retraced the 2026-05-27 gap-down; secondarily, FY27 revenue growth formally guided at or below the 16–17% framed in May when the 2026-09-03 Q4 print lands. --- ### ZVRA — Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZVRA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The June patent re-rating fully reversed: EMA's CHMP issued a negative opinion on arimoclomol's EU application 2026-07-24 (efficacy not proven), and ZVRA gapped ~24% to the high-$9s, cutting through the $11.50 base. EU expansion is now blocked pending a re-examination that won't resolve before Q4; no accelerating narrative remains, and the next binary is the early-August Q2 print. Kill line: A daily close below $8.52 (loses the 2026-07-24 CHMP-selloff low) confirms the de-rating extending toward the $7.16 52-week low and kills any basing thesis; secondarily, a Q2 print in early August with MIPLYFFA net revenue below Q1's $24.6M would confirm the sole US revenue engine stalling. --- ## Journal entries · latest first ### 2026-08-25 — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-25/ High-yield spreads tightened 4bps on the week to 2.69%, and the credit widening the 2026-08-24 entry flagged as the one input pulling against the classification did not extend into a third print — the sequence that would have made credit directional is retired rather than confirmed, and the record's only cross-asset dissent is gone with it. The curve moved in parallel: 5bps at both the 2Y and the 10Y, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread unmoved at 0.46%. The composition of the long-end move flipped from the prior level's split — real yield carried +3bps of it against +2bps of inflation compensation, where a week earlier breakevens did nearly all the work. A nominal 4.70% financed by a rising real… --- ### 2026-08-24 — Monday, August 24, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-24/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-21, three days back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #13 on the public ledger. VIX at 16.01 sits in the calm band, higher than the prior level's reading but not out of it. Breadth reads 59.2% of the universe (577/975) above its 200-EMA, classified healthy but marginal — the qualifier is the model's, not an editorial gloss. SPY closed 765.64, +7.6% over its 200-EMA of 711.49. Rates rose across the curve: the 2Y added 7bps WoW to 4.24% and the 10Y added 6bps to 4.74%, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread 1bp narrower at 0.50%. The long-end move was inflation compensation, not real yield — the 10Y breakeven rose 7bps… --- ### 2026-08-22 — Saturday, August 22, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-22/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior call. The inputs behind it: VIX at 14.89 (calm), breadth at 55.7% of names above their 200-EMA (543 of 975, classed healthy but unconfirmed), and SPY closing at 762.62 against a 200-EMA of 710.9 +7.3% above trend. That combination is the interesting part. A tape 7.3% over its own 200-EMA with only 55.7% of constituents above theirs is a narrow advance, not a broad one. The index is doing the work; the median stock is closer to the line. Breadth sitting at "healthy but unconfirmed" rather than healthy is the honest description of it. Rates… --- ### 2026-08-21 — Friday, August 21, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-21/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-20, one session back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #12 on the public ledger. VIX at 14.89 sits in the calm band. Breadth reads 55.7% of the universe (543/975) above its 200-EMA, classified healthy but marginal — the qualifier is the model's, not an editorial gloss. SPY closed 762.62, +7.3% over its 200-EMA of 710.9. Rates bear flattened at the front: the 2Y added 2bps WoW to 4.19% while the 10Y added 1bp to 4.69%, compressing the 10Y–2Y spread 1bp to 0.50%. The decomposition inverts last session's: the 10Y breakeven rose 7bps to 2.34% while the real 10Y fell 6bps to 2.35%, so nominal stability at the… --- ### 2026-08-20 — Thursday, August 20, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-20/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-19, one session back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #11 on the public ledger. Breadth reads 61.6% of the universe (601/975) above its 200-EMA, inside the healthy band. SPY closed 769.09, +8.3% over its 200-EMA of 710.14. VIX at 15.84 sits in the calm band. Rates ran a bull flattener: the 10Y shed 3bps WoW to 4.65% while the 2Y added 2bps to 4.19%, narrowing the 10Y–2Y spread 5bps to 0.46%. The decomposition is one-sided — the real 10Y fell 6bps to 2.35% while the 10Y breakeven added 3bps to 2.30%, so the whole of the long-end decline came from the real leg and inflation compensation moved against it. HY… --- ### 2026-08-19 — Wednesday, August 19, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-19/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-14, five sessions back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #10 on the public ledger. Breadth reads 62.0% of the universe (604/975) above its 200-EMA still scoring healthy, but a lower share and a smaller count than the prior read's 70.1% (684/976). SPY closed 767.37, +8.2% over its 200-EMA of 709.42, a narrower cushion than the 9.9% printed on 2026-08-14. VIX at 15.19 sits in the calm band, above the prior read's 14.55. The rate move was a bear steepener: the 10Y added 8bps WoW to 4.71% while the 2Y added 4bps to 4.19%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 4bps to 0.52%. The long-end rise was led by inflation… --- ### 2026-08-15 — Saturday, August 15, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-15/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior read. That call rests on three measured inputs rather than a narrative: VIX at 14.55, classified calm; breadth at 70.1% of the universe above its 200-EMA (684 of 976), classified healthy; and SPY closing at 777.84 against a 200-EMA of 707.75, or +9.9% above trend. Rates did not fight the tape. The 10Y sits at 4.63% as of 2026-08-13, down 2bps on the week; the 2Y at 4.15%, down 4bps. The 10Y-2Y spread printed 0.51% as of 2026-08-14, up 5bps week-over-week a modest steepening driven by the front end easing more than the long end. The 10Y… --- ### 2026-08-14 — Friday, August 14, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-14/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-13. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #9 on the public ledger. Breadth extended higher: 70.1% of the universe (684/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a larger count than the prior read and scoring healthy. SPY closed 777.84, +9.9% over its 200-EMA of 707.75, a wider cushion than the prior print. VIX at 14.55 sits in the calm band and below the prior read. The rate move was a bull steepener: the 2Y shed 4bps WoW to 4.15% while the 10Y shed 2bps to 4.63%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.48%. The long-end decline split evenly between its components breakevens fell 1bp to 2.24%, the real 10Y fell 1bp to 2.39%.… --- ### 2026-08-13 — Thursday, August 13, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-13/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-12. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #8 on the public ledger. Breadth turned up: 66.7% of the universe (651/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a higher count than the prior read and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 772.54, +9.3% over its 200-EMA of 706.93. VIX at 15.28 sits in the calm band, lower than the prior read. Rates firmed at the long end: the 10Y added 3bps WoW to 4.68% and the 2Y added 1bp to 4.20%, steepening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.48%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.26%; the real 10Y added 2bps to 2.42%. HY widened 1bp to 2.71%. Claims stand at 209K (+9K WoW, as of 2026-08-08). FRED market prints… --- ### 2026-08-12 — Wednesday, August 12, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-12/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-11. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #7 on the public ledger. Breadth slipped again: 66.5% of the universe (649/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a lower count than the prior read and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 770.52, +9.1% over its 200-EMA of 706.03. VIX at 15.46 sits in the calm band, higher than the prior read. Rates mostly stalled: the 10Y added 1bp WoW to 4.70% while the 2Y fell 3bps to 4.22%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 4bps to 0.48%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.27%; the real 10Y was flat at 2.43%. HY widened 1bp to 2.72%. Claims stand at 199K (+1K WoW, as of 2026-08-01). FRED market prints carry an… --- ### 2026-08-11 — Tuesday, August 11, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-11/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-10. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #6 on the public ledger. Breadth gave back part of the prior recovery: 67.3% of the universe (656/975) trades above its 200-EMA, down from the prior count and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 773.02, +9.6% over its 200-EMA of 705.43. VIX at 14.9 sits in the calm band, lower again than the prior read. Rates reversed direction: the 10Y rose 9bps WoW to 4.72% and the 2Y rose 7bps to 4.25%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread by 2bps to 0.47%. Breakevens rose 7bps to 2.29% while the real 10Y added 2bps to 2.43%. HY tightened another 5bps to 2.70%. Claims stand at 199K (+1K WoW, as… --- ### 2026-08-10 — Monday, August 10, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-10/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-07. This is the fifth consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=5). Breadth recovered the ground it lost: 69.4% of the universe (677/975) trades above its 200-EMA, back above the prior count and scoring healthy. SPY closed 773.16, +9.7% over its 200-EMA of 704.75. VIX at 15.15 sits lower in the calm band than on the prior read. Rates fell harder than last week: the 10Y dropped 10bps WoW to 4.65% and the 2Y dropped 9bps to 4.19%, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread barely changed at 0.46% (−1bp). Breakevens fell 3bps to 2.25% and the real 10Y fell 7bps to 2.40%. HY tightened another 15bps to 2.70%. Claims… --- ### 2026-08-08 — Saturday, August 8, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-08/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior read. Nothing in the underlying inputs argues with it. VIX closed at 15.81 calm. Breadth is 65.3% of the tracked universe above its 200-EMA (637 of 975), which is healthy participation rather than a narrow handful of names carrying an index. SPY closed at 768.64 against a 200-EMA of 704.34, +9.1% above trend. The bond tape did the confirming. The 10Y sits at 4.69% (as of 2026-08-06), down 6bps on the week; the 2Y at 4.25%, down 3bps. The 10Y-2Y spread printed 0.46% on 2026-08-07, down 1bp week-over-week a curve that moved essentially not at… --- ### 2026-08-07 — Friday, August 7, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-07/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-06. This is the fourth consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=4). Breadth gave back part of its gain: 65.3% of the universe (637/975) sits above its 200-EMA, still scoring healthy but roughly two points below the prior count. SPY closed 768.64, +9.1% over its 200-EMA of 704.34, a slightly thinner cushion as the trend line rose. VIX at 15.81 sits lower in the calm band. Rates continued lower with less force: the 10Y fell 6bps WoW to 4.69% and the 2Y fell 3bps to 4.25%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 3bps to 0.44%. Breakevens fell 2bps to 2.26% and the real 10Y fell 4bps to 2.43%, so most of the… --- ### 2026-08-06 — Thursday, August 6, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-06/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-04. This is the third consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=3). Breadth improved again: 67.0% of the universe (653/975) sits above its 200-EMA, scoring healthy for a second reading. SPY closed 769.79, +9.4% over its 200-EMA of 703.38 a wider cushion than the prior level carried. VIX at 16.5 remains in the calm band, marginally higher than the last print but nowhere near its edge. The rates block moved in one direction and with size this time: the 10Y fell 12bps WoW to 4.63% and the 2Y fell 10bps to 4.18%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.45%. Breakevens fell 6bps to 2.22% and the real 10Y… --- ### 2026-08-04 — Tuesday, August 4, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-04/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-03. This is the second consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=2). The internals firmed rather than merely held. Breadth rose to 63.8% (623/976) above the 200-EMA and now scores healthy, up from the marginal score that carried the flip. SPY closed 757.72, +8.0% over its 200-EMA of 701.85, extending the price cushion. VIX at 15.99 sits deeper in the calm band. The rates block moved together and small: the 10Y at 4.70% and the 2Y at 4.25% each added 3bps WoW, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread flat at 0.45%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.27% and the real 10Y rose 2bps to 2.43%, so the parallel shift is mostly… --- ### 2026-08-03 — Monday, August 3, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-03/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, a flip from the prior published entry of 2026-07-30, which printed NEUTRAL. Breadth recovered to 59.6% (582/976) above the 200-EMA still scored healthy but unconfirmed, but the count moved up rather than down. Price extended: SPY closed 746.79, +6.5% over its 200-EMA of 701.29. Volatility is the cleanest change in the block. VIX at 17.09 sits in the calm band, out of the elevated range that framed the previous read. Rates went the other way at the long end: the 10Y at 4.75% rose 6bps WoW while the 2Y at 4.28% fell 5bps, steepening the 10Y–2Y spread to 0.47% (+11bps WoW). Breakevens added 2bps to 2.28% and the real 10Y rose 4bps to 2.47%, so most of the long-end… --- ### 2026-08-01 — Saturday, August 1, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-01/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, upgraded from NEUTRAL. That flip rests on three measured inputs, not on a narrative: SPY closed at 741.63 against a 200-EMA of 700.46, putting the index +5.9% above trend; breadth sits at 60.5% of the tracked universe above its 200-EMA (590 of 976), which the model classes as healthy; VIX at 20.66 remains in its elevated band. The last of those is the dissonant one. A tape 5.9% above trend with participation this broad does not usually carry a 20-handle VIX, and the model reads risk-on anyway because two of the three inputs clear. Rates did the work under the… --- ### 2026-07-30 — Thursday, July 30, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-30/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL is the model's read, a flip from the prior published entry of 2026-07-29, which printed RISK-ON. Breadth fell to 58.8% (574/976) above the 200-EMA, which the model scores healthy but unconfirmed rather than healthy — that downgrade is what moved the call. Price did not break: SPY closed 729.57, +4.3% over its 200-EMA of 699.74. Rates eased at the front, with the 2Y at 4.22% (−11bps WoW) against a 10Y at 4.67% (−2bps WoW), steepening the 10Y–2Y spread to 0.45% (+9bps WoW). Breakevens held flat at 2.26% and the real 10Y fell 2bps to 2.41%, so the nominal decline came out of the real rate, not inflation compensation. Credit widened again: HY at 2.87%, +8bps WoW. VIX at 18.21 remains in… --- ### 2026-07-29 — Wednesday, July 29, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-29/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same call as the prior published entry of 2026-07-28. Breadth is the load-bearing input: 63.7% (622/976) of the universe trades above its 200-EMA, which the model scores healthy. SPY closed 740.79, +5.9% over its 200-EMA of 699.41. The rates block eased across the curve, with the 10Y at 4.61% (−10bps WoW) and the 2Y at 4.26% (−11bps WoW), leaving the 10Y–2Y spread at 0.35% (+1bp WoW). Breakevens fell 8bps to 2.20% while the real 10Y fell only 2bps to 2.41%, so most of the nominal decline came out of inflation compensation and a sliver out of the real rate. Credit moved the other way: HY at 2.84%, +7bps WoW. VIX at 18.67 sits in the elevated band. Claims at… --- ### 2026-07-28 — Tuesday, July 28, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-28/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's read, matching the prior published entry of 2026-07-27. Breadth did the work: 62.6% (611/976) of the universe sits above its 200-EMA, up from the 57.9% that carried the previous print, and firmly out of marginal territory. SPY closed 738.85, +5.8% over its 200-EMA of 698.57. Rates eased at the margin — the 10Y at 4.65% (−2bps WoW), the 2Y flat at 4.31%, the 10Y–2Y spread at 0.34% (−2bps WoW). Breakevens fell 7bps to 2.21%, which pushed the real 10Y up 5bps to 2.44% even as the nominal came in. HY credit went the other way: 2.81%, +13bps WoW, the widest weekly move in the block. VIX at 18.58 reads elevated. Claims at 187K (−22K WoW, as of 2026-07-18) stayed firm. The… --- ### 2026-07-27 — Monday, July 27, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-27/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model flipped up from the prior published read of NEUTRAL on 2026-07-24. Price and internals carried it. Breadth widened to 57.9% (566/977) above the 200-EMA, back into healthy but unconfirmed territory from the thin majority that helped trigger the prior flip. SPY closed 738.9, +5.8% over its 200-EMA of 698.17, holding the same stretch. What did not improve was rates: the 10Y sits at 4.69% (+14bps WoW) and the 2Y at 4.33% (+15bps WoW), leaving the 10Y–2Y spread at 0.36% (−1bp WoW), and the real 10Y at 2.43% (+12bps WoW) is still leading the repricing, with breakevens at 2.26% (+2bps). HY credit widened again, 6bps WoW to 2.79%. VIX at 18.7 reads elevated, not calm. Claims… --- ### 2026-07-25 — Saturday, July 25, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-25/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime read is NEUTRAL, down from RISK-ON at the prior close-of-day. The downgrade came from rates, not fear. VIX sits at 16.64 (calm), HY credit spread is 2.77% (WoW +4bps) and still tight, and SPY closed the week at 738.06, +5.8% above its 200-EMA at 697.38 none of that is a stress signal. What actually moved the tape was the rate complex backing up. The 10Y Treasury printed 4.71% (WoW +16bps), the 2Y 4.37% (WoW +19bps), and the real 10Y rate rose to 2.45% (WoW +14bps) while the 10Y breakeven barely budged at 2.26% (WoW +2bps) the move was real yield, not inflation expectations. The 10Y-2Y… --- ### 2026-07-24 — Friday, July 24, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-24/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL — the model flipped off RISK-ON, its call as recently as one day earlier on 2026-07-23. The break did not come from the vol side: VIX sits at 16.64, deep in the calm band, and SPY closed 738.06, +5.8% over its 200-EMA of 697.38, still stretched to the upside. It came from internals and rates, moving together. Breadth eased to 54.4% (531/977) above the 200-EMA a majority, but a thinner one that now reads mixed rather than healthy. The curve backed up across the board: the 10Y added 16bps WoW to 4.71% and the 2Y 19bps to 4.37%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread to 0.34% (−3bps WoW). Breakeven firmed 4bps to 2.28% and the real 10Y jumped 12bps to 2.43%, leading the repricing. And HY credit… --- ### 2026-07-23 — Thursday, July 23, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-23/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON, consecutive print #29 on the public ledger and a one-day continuation of the 07-22 read. The vol side finally joined the equity block: VIX dropped into the calm band at 17.05, clearing the elevated zone it had been pinned to and restoring a genuine cushion rather than the thin one that band allowed. Breadth eased a touch to 57.8% (565/977) above the 200-EMA but kept its majority, healthy but unconfirmed. SPY closed 747.49, +7.2% over its 200-EMA of 697.07, holding the stretch without pressing it further. The rate side pulled the other way, harder. The whole curve repriced up: the 10Y added 12bps WoW to 4.67% and the 2Y 13bps to 4.31%, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread at 0.36% (−1bps WoW),… --- ### 2026-07-22 — Wednesday, July 22, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-22/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON holds, consecutive print #28 on the public ledger and a continuation of the 07-21 read. The equity internals firmed back under it. VIX eased to 18.65, still inside the elevated band but a step off the ~18 gate it was pinned to a session earlier, restoring a thin cushion. Breadth broadened to 59.1% (577/977) above the 200-EMA, recovering the majority that had slimmed the prior day. SPY closed 748.15, +7.4% over its 200-EMA of 696.57, the most stretched reading of this run. The rate side pulled the other way. The front end kept selling: the 2Y backed up 10bps WoW to 4.26% and the 10Y added 6bps to 4.63%, dragging the 10Y–2Y spread 4bps WoW tighter to 0.37% the bear-flattening flagged… --- ### 2026-07-21 — Tuesday, July 21, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-21/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON holds, consecutive print #27 on the public ledger and a continuation of the 07-20 read. The internals softened under it. VIX jumped to 18.77, into the elevated band and now sitting on the ~18 gate rather than comfortably beneath it the cushion that defined the prior session is spent. Breadth thinned again to 57.0% (556/976) above the 200-EMA, still a majority but a slimmer one. SPY closed 742.15, +6.6% over its 200-EMA of 696.38, a step down from the prior extension. Rates reversed: the front end led higher, the 2Y backing up 8bps WoW to 4.21% and the 10Y adding 5bps to 4.60%, pulling the 10Y–2Y spread 3bps WoW tighter to 0.39% bear-flattening, the exact front-end reversal flagged… --- ### 2026-07-20 — Monday, July 20, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-20/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON holds, consecutive print #26 on the public ledger and a continuation of the 07-17 read. VIX printed 16.73, calm and still well below the ~18 gate. Breadth came in at 59.8% (584/976) above the 200-EMA a majority, but a marginal one that thinned from the wider participation of the prior session. SPY closed 743.28, +6.8% over its 200-EMA of 695.92. The front end led lower again: the 2Y eased 3bps WoW to 4.18% and the 10Y slipped 1bp to 4.55%, nudging the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps WoW wider to 0.37%. Inflation expectations were quiet, breakeven flat at 2.24% while the real 10Y eased 1bp to 2.31%. The one visible give was credit: HY leaked 4bps WoW to 2.73%, the largest single move on the… --- ### 2026-07-18 — Saturday, July 18, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-18/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's close-of-day call is RISK-ON, holding from the prior week with no flip in between. The internals back it. VIX printed 15.67 calm end of the range. Breadth is healthy at 64.3% of names above their 200-EMA (628/976), so this is participation, not a handful of generals dragging an index. SPY closed at 750.87, sitting +8.0% over its 200-EMA of 695.5. Rates did little of consequence. The 10Y finished at 4.57% (WoW +1bps) while the front end eased, 2Y at 4.16% (WoW -5bps). The 10Y-2Y spread came in at 0.37% (WoW +2bps) still positive, still shallow. Credit stayed relaxed with the HY spread at… --- ### 2026-07-17 — Friday, July 17, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-07-17/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON holds, consecutive print #25 on the public ledger and a continuation of the 07-16 read. VIX slipped to 15.67, sitting deep beneath the ~18 gate and calmer than the prior session. Breadth firmed to 64.3% (628/976) above the 200-EMA, a wider healthy majority that gained better than three points. SPY closed 750.87, +8.0% over its 200-EMA of 695.5. The front end led the curve again: the 2Y eased 5bps WoW to 4.16% while the 10Y ticked up 1bp to 4.57%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 6bps WoW to 0.41%. Inflation expectations drifted lower, breakeven −2bps to 2.22%, while the real 10Y firmed +3bps to 2.35%. Credit gave a marginal 2bps WoW, HY at 2.71%, tight in absolute terms. Broadening… --- ## Forward book (v5) - Radar (https://frontierpicks.com/radar/): this week's mechanical momentum clusters — the candidate list the forward theme-bet book curates from. A scan, not a position. - Forecasts (https://frontierpicks.com/forecasts/): the scored theme-bet forecasts — open bets and refusals, each with stated reasoning. A forward experiment published in full; no performance claim is made. No position sizes, prices, or account details. - Kill gates (https://frontierpicks.com/gates/): the pre-registered, tighten-only shutdown criteria — the conditions under which the strategy is de-scaled or declared dead, published before results. Machine-readable (JSON, same allow-listed data, no scraping): - https://frontierpicks.com/radar.json — triggered clusters (leader, members, breadth, volume_ratio). - https://frontierpicks.com/forecasts.json — open bets + refusals, each with stated reasoning (price-free). - https://frontierpicks.com/gates.json — each kill-gate criterion + its live verdict. ## Methodology summary Stage A: liquidity screen. Stage B: weekly momentum + narrative radar. Stage C: frontier-model quality assessment (the dossier). Stage D: theme-bet curation — shape or reject the triggered clusters into scored forecasts; sizing and exits are machine-owned. Stage E: mechanical outcome grading against pre-registered kill gates. Eight behaviour archetypes: Compounder, Cyclical recovery, Theme leader, Special situation, Earnings inflection, Retail squeeze, Defensive, Macro hedge. Each drives a behaviour profile and stop logic. Conviction levels: SUPREME, HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW. Each carries an explicit kill line that strips the conviction if breached. Full methodology: https://frontierpicks.com/methodology/ ## License + citation Content © FrontierPicks. Available for research and reference; attribute on republication. Educational under the BaFin and EU framework; not investment advice.