# FrontierPicks — full index for LLMs > Every pick graded in public. Losses stay up. AI stock picks graded in public. A frontier language model reads US equity news, filings and prices every trading day and publishes per-ticker dossiers, a macro view and a live book — a pick carries the exact kill line that would prove it wrong, published in advance, and is scored played out or invalidated when a real close reaches one of its two levels. Open methodology, losses included, nothing to sell. Source URL prefix: https://frontierpicks.com Last content update: 2026-09-10 (Europe/Berlin). ## Resolved track record — dated, falsifiable calls with published outcomes FrontierPicks maintains a public, dated calibration record of AI-generated equity research. Each pick ships a kill line in advance and is graded mechanically against that pre-published condition; the ones a real close has settled are listed below. 332 picks have resolved: 160 reached their case, 172 closed on their stated line. Murphy reliability 0.010 (a mean-squared term, read per tier — see the per-tier rows on /track-record/). Brier 0.258, read against the 0.250 a forecaster scores by staking the base rate on every pick (a reference, not a floor — a Brier score's floor is 0); resolution 0.002 is the open question at this sample size. Full record: https://frontierpicks.com/track-record/ · machine-readable: https://frontierpicks.com/track-record.json. Of 929 published FrontierPicks dossiers, 160 reached their case, 172 hit their published kill line, and 597 are still undecided (204 live with an armed line, 393 lapsed). 35.7% of published picks have reached a verdict — 332 of 929. A pick reaches a verdict when a real close prints its published kill line or its 1:1 target; a name that goes sideways reaches neither and stays undecided. Mechanism, all three counts, and a measured comparison of the decided vs undecided cohorts against the scanned universe: https://frontierpicks.com/how-picks-resolve/. - [CERT — Certara, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CERT/): resolved invalidated 2026-09-08, published 2026-07-14, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [SANM — Sanmina Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANM/): resolved played out 2026-09-04, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SMTC — Semtech Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMTC/): resolved played out 2026-09-04, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TAL — TAL Education Group](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TAL/): resolved played out 2026-09-04, published 2026-07-31, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [XOS — Xos, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XOS/): resolved invalidated 2026-09-03, published 2026-08-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SMRT — SmartRent, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMRT/): resolved invalidated 2026-09-01, published 2026-08-12, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [SEER — Seer, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEER/): resolved invalidated 2026-09-01, published 2026-08-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [WHD — Cactus, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WHD/): resolved played out 2026-08-31, published 2026-08-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FTNT — Fortinet, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTNT/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [PLPC — Preformed Line Products Company](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLPC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [SPXC — SPX Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPXC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TEAM — Atlassian Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEAM/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [BMNR — BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMNR/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [ESTC — Elastic N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ESTC/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-08-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [HIMS — Hims & Hers Health, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [MAN — ManpowerGroup](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAN/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [POWL — Powell Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ADBE — Adobe Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADBE/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [AKAM — Akamai Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKAM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [ALAB — Astera Labs, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALAB/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ANDG — Andersen Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANDG/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [AUR — Aurora Innovation, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [BHE — Benchmark Electronics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHE/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [DGII — Digi International Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGII/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-08-16, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [ENTG — Entegris, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENTG/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FSLR — First Solar, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSLR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-22, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [MEI — Methode Electronics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEI/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PENN — PENN Entertainment, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-06-10, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [TTMI — TTM Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ULCC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AAON — AAON, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAON/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AIP — Arteris, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIP/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ALNT — Allient Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALNT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AVR — Anteris Technologies Global Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [BKSY — BlackSky Technology Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKSY/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-08-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FCEL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [GFS — GlobalFoundries Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GFS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [GTM — ZoomInfo Technologies Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTM/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-08-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NP/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [RH](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RH/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-07-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [TGTX — TG Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TGTX/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-06-18, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [VIR — Vir Biotechnology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIR/): resolved played out 2026-08-28, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [VPG — Vishay Precision Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VPG/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-28, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [CRM — Salesforce, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRM/): resolved played out 2026-08-27, published 2026-07-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [CYRX — CryoPort, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CYRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-05-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FA — First Advantage Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FA/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-15, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [FTK — Flotek Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTK/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PCTY — Paylocity Holding Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCTY/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPC/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [COHU — Cohu, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CTOS — Custom Truck One Source, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTOS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MIRM — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MIRM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SPSC — SPS Commerce, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPSC/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-04, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [WEX — WEX Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEX/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [WIX — Wix.com Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WIX/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [CRS — Carpenter Technology Corp](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSCO/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-05-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVLG/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-06-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [DUOT — Duos Technologies Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DUOT/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-05-27, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [EPAM — EPAM SYSTEMS, INC.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPAM/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [EXFY — Expensify, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXFY/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [G — Genpact Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/G/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [GLUE — Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLUE/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ICHR — Ichor Holdings](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICHR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IHRT — iHeartMedia, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IHRT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [IQ — iQIYI, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IQ/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-29, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MKSI — MKS Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKSI/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [OEC — Orion S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OEC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [SAH — Sonic Automotive, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAH/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TASK — TaskUs, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TASK/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-07-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TH — Target Hospitality Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TH/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TIC — TIC Solutions, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TIC/): resolved played out 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-12, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TLN — Talen Energy Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [TSAT — Telesat Corporation Class A Common Shares and Class B Variable Voting Shares](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSAT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-08-09, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UCTT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-21, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CRWV — CoreWeave, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWV/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [ARM — Arm Holdings plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [INTC — Intel Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CMCO — Columbus McKinnon Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMCO/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-07-31, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [JWEL — Jowell Global Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JWEL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-08-11, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [KC — Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-18, published 2026-08-04, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [VLO — Valero Energy Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VLO/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [BTGO — BitGo Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTGO/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KURA — Kura Oncology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KURA/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RUM — Rumble Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RUM/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MRX — Marex Group plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CGEM — Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGEM/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KEYS — Keysight Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEYS/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [PRGS — Progress Software Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRGS/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PTGX — Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTGX/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RAPP — Rapport Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAPP/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SE — Sea Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SE/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [VG — Venture Global, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VG/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASX/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BCAX — Bicara Therapeutics Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BCAX/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-06-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BTE — Baytex Energy Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTE/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [BWIN — The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWIN/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [EQNR — Equinor ASA](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EQNR/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [GENI — Genius Sports Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GENI/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-06-09, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [GTX — Garrett Motion Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTX/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IMRX — Immuneering Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KLC — KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MTUM](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTUM/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-02, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [NWPX — NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWPX/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PBI — Pitney Bowes Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBI/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [RHI — Robert Half Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RHI/): resolved played out 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [WLFC — Willis Lease Finance Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WLFC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-07-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [WSC — WillScot Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-14, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [SATL — Satellogic Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SATL/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [CGC — Canopy Growth Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGC/): resolved played out 2026-08-12, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [EVC — Entravision Communication](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PANL — Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-08-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [HTZ — Hertz Global Holdings, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTZ/): resolved played out 2026-08-11, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [BBBY — Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBBY/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [DJT — Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DJT/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-11, published 2026-07-28, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ORKA — Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORKA/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FBIN — Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBIN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-07-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MGM — MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGM/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-10, published 2026-06-11, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TORO — Toro Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TORO/): resolved played out 2026-08-10, published 2026-04-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [UMC — United Microelectronic Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UMC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AAPL — Apple Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAPL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AEIS — Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEIS/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [DDOG — Datadog, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDOG/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [LUNR — Intuitive Machines, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LUNR/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [MSFT — Microsoft Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSFT/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NNE/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [OKLO — Oklo Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKLO/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RDW — Redwire Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDW/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SENS — Senseonics Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SENS/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [TBI — Trueblue, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBI/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [WEAV — Weave Communications, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEAV/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [ACIW — ACI Worldwide, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACIW/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-17, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [AMBA — Ambarella, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBA/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [BBAR — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBAR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [CCC — CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCC/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ELF — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELF/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-01, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [GHRS — GH Research PLC](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GHRS/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [HRI — Herc Holdings Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HRI/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKTR/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [PGEN — Precigen, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGEN/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-07, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RRGB — Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRGB/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [YETI — YETI Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YETI/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ZBIO — Zenas BioPharma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBIO/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-02, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AGX — Argan, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGX/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKBA/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AOSL/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ATEN — A10 Networks Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [BRKR — Bruker Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRKR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BROS — Dutch Bros Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BROS/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [CHYM — Chime Financial, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHYM/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-21, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [COMP — Compass, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COMP/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [DDD — 3D Systems Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDD/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FOUR — Shift4 Payments, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOUR/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FRD — Friedman Industries Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FRD/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [GGAL — Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GGAL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [GOLF — Acushnet Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOLF/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [LILAK — Liberty Latin America Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILAK/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [LZ — LegalZoom.com, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LZ/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MDB — MongoDB, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MDB/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODFL/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [ORIC — Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORIC/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [PAY — Paymentus Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAY/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-07-12, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [QURE — uniQure N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QURE/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-27, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SABR — Sabre Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SABR/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SHOO — Steven Madden, Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHOO/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SITM — SiTime Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SITM/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [SVV — Savers Value Village, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SVV/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [TNDM — Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNDM/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-17, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [UI — Ubiquiti Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UI/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [VECO — Veeco Instruments Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VECO/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [WGS — GeneDx Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WGS/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [XRX — Xerox Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRX/): resolved played out 2026-08-07, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [WDC — Western Digital Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDC/): resolved invalidated 2026-08-06, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FLY — Firefly Aerospace Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLY/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [HELP — Cybin Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELP/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [ZVRA — Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZVRA/): resolved played out 2026-08-06, published 2026-06-11, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FIG — Figma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIG/): resolved played out 2026-08-03, published 2026-07-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RXO — RXO, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [STX — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STX/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MTRN — Materion Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTRN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [NUTX — Nutex Health Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUTX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-07-02, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SMCI — Super Micro Computer, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMCI/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-24, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [VICR — Vicor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VICR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NXT — Nextpower Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [PRCH — Porch Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRCH/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-15, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [RMAX — Re/Max Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMAX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-28, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SNDX — Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-07-12, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [VCYT — Veracyte, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCYT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-21, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ALHC — Alignment Healthcare, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALHC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [AMKR — Amkor Technology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMKR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The)](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAKE/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CDW — CDW Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDW/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [EVH — Evolent Health, Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-29, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [FN — Fabrinet](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IART — Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IART/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [JACK — Jack In The Box Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JACK/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [KSS — Kohls Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KSS/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [M — Macy's Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/M/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MYE — Myers Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYE/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-30, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MYGN — Myriad Genetics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NEO — NeoGenomics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEO/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NOK — Nokia Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NOK/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-30, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [NSIT — Insight Enterprises, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSIT/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ON/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [OUST — Ouster, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OUST/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PI — Impinj, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PI/): resolved played out 2026-07-31, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RBLX — Roblox Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBLX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-07-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [UNIT — Uniti Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UNIT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-31, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [VERU — Veru Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERU/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-28, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRCY/): resolved played out 2026-07-24, published 2026-07-06, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [FROG — JFrog Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FROG/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-05-17, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [TWLO — Twilio Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWLO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [XXI — Twenty One Capital, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XXI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-05-03, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [ALGT — Allegiant Travel Company](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-06-21, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Special situation. - [AMC — Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMC/): resolved played out 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AFRM — Affirm Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AFRM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [BAND — Bandwidth Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAND/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [BB — BlackBerry Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BB/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [CLS — Celestica, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CORT — Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CORT/): resolved played out 2026-07-24, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ENPH — Enphase Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENPH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-05-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MMYT — MakeMyTrip Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMYT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-07-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [RARE — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RARE/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-07-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SANA — Sana Biotechnology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANA/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-07-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [SPRY — ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPRY/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-06-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [W — Wayfair Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/W/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-24, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANW/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-23, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Compounder. - [AGYS — Agilysys, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGYS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-22, published 2026-06-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BULL — Webull Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BULL/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-05-06, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PLUG — Plug Power, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLUG/): resolved played out 2026-07-21, published 2026-04-26, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [CIEN — Ciena Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CIEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [VSH — Vishay Intertechnology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BFLY/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-11, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [FORM — FormFactor, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FORM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [KMX — CarMax Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMX/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BBY — Best Buy Company, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBY/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-14, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [CLPT — ClearPoint Neuro, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLPT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-17, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FWRD — Forward Air Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FWRD/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [GCO — Genesco Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCO/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [HIVE — HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIVE/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [JOBY — Joby Aviation, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JOBY/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-05-28, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOS/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [LEGN — Legend Biotech Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LEGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MARA/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-24, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PDFS — PDF Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PDFS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-16, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RMBS — Rambus Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMBS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [SAIL — SailPoint, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAIL/): resolved played out 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [STM — STMicroelectronics N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [STUB — StubHub Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STUB/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [TMC — TMC the metals company Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TMC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [WING — Wingstop Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WING/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-17, published 2026-06-14, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [EXTR — Extreme Networks, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXTR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-16, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PD — PagerDuty, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PD/): resolved played out 2026-07-13, published 2026-06-07, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVL/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [FLEX — Flex Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLEX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [VIAV — Viavi Solutions Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIAV/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVDA/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [IMOS — ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMOS/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-06-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [OXM — Oxford Industries, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OXM/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies Group](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTDR/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [FPS — Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FPS/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-05-15, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALU/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEEL/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-28, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [KFRC — Kforce Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KFRC/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-29, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [LGN — Legence Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGN/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MTSI — MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTSI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-10, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [NEXA — Nexa Resources S.A.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEXA/): resolved played out 2026-07-10, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PNRG — PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PNRG/): resolved played out 2026-07-09, published 2026-05-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [PENG — Penguin Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENG/): resolved played out 2026-07-08, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTH/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-08, published 2026-06-26, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AESI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [AMSC — American Superconductor Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMSC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-22, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CCJ — Cameco Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCJ/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [ATI — ATI Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATI/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [KYMR — Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KYMR/): resolved played out 2026-07-02, published 2026-06-26, published kill line did not fire. Conviction NONE, archetype Defensive. - [LRCX — Lam Research Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRCX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-06-18, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONTO/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TNGX — Tango Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNGX/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSM/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CLSK — CleanSpark, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLSK/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [MYRG — MYR Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYRG/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-03, published kill line fired. Conviction HIGH, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [AMN — AMN Healthcare Services](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMN/): resolved played out 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTBT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-02, published 2026-05-12, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [HUT — Hut 8 Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUT/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-01, published 2026-04-20, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [ALTO — Alto Ingredients, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALTO/): resolved played out 2026-07-01, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SXC — Suncoke Energy Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SXC/): resolved invalidated 2026-07-01, published 2026-05-24, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [SYRE — Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYRE/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-30, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [FAC — Factorial Energy Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FAC/): resolved played out 2026-06-30, published 2026-06-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Defensive. - [PSNL — Personalis, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSNL/): resolved played out 2026-06-26, published 2026-05-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADPT/): resolved played out 2026-06-26, published 2026-06-11, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [RGTI — Rigetti Computing, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RGTI/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-26, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [SHLS — Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHLS/): resolved played out 2026-06-26, published 2026-05-18, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [CEVA — CEVA, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEVA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-25, published 2026-04-26, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [TLRY — Tilray Brands, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLRY/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-25, published 2026-04-23, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBR/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [QUIK — QuickLogic Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUIK/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-24, published 2026-05-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [NBIS — Nebius Group N.V.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBIS/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-23, published 2026-04-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [OKTA — Okta, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKTA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [SNOW — Snowflake Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNOW/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [DXCM — DexCom, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXCM/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-22, published 2026-06-09, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-10, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [AUGO — Aura Minerals Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUGO/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [PTEN — Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTEN/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-19, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [MGTX — MeiraGTx Holdings plc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGTX/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [PRM — Perimeter Solutions, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRM/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Defensive. - [ALGM — Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGM/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CDNL — Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNL/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CECO — CECO Environmental Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CECO/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-28, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [FIVN — Five9, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIVN/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-05, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [IPX — IperionX Limited](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPX/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-27, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Compounder. - [JBLU — JetBlue Airways Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBLU/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [MCHP — Microchip Technology Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCHP/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-05, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [PCT — PureCycle Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCT/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-01, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [STRO — Sutro Biopharma, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRO/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-05-13, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TER — Teradyne, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TER/): resolved played out 2026-06-18, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [ZETA — Zeta Global Holdings Corp.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZETA/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-17, published 2026-06-07, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [OPEN — Opendoor Technologies Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPEN/): resolved played out 2026-06-16, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [BLZE — Backblaze, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLZE/): resolved played out 2026-06-16, published 2026-05-08, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [RVMD — Revolution Medicines, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RVMD/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Compounder. - [TBLA — Taboola.com Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBLA/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-08, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Special situation. - [DIOD — Diodes Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DIOD/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [MRAM — Everspin Technologies, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRAM/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-05-03, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [POWI — Power Integrations, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWI/): resolved played out 2026-06-15, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Theme leader. - [TRVI — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRVI/): resolved played out 2026-06-12, published 2026-04-19, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Earnings inflection. - [TWST — Twist Bioscience Corporation](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWST/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-04-22, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Theme leader. - [AZZ — AZZ Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZZ/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-04-23, published kill line did not fire. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [DRTS — Alpha Tau Medical Ltd.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRTS/): resolved played out 2026-06-11, published 2026-05-20, published kill line did not fire. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Earnings inflection. - [INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INDI/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-10, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [CLFD — Clearfield, Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLFD/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-09, published 2026-05-13, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. - [INOD — Innodata Inc.](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INOD/): resolved invalidated 2026-06-09, published 2026-05-10, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Cyclical recovery. - [QCOM — QUALCOMM Incorporated](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QCOM/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-27, published 2026-05-08, published kill line fired. Conviction MEDIUM, archetype Special situation. - [PURR — Hyperliquid Strategies Inc](https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PURR/): resolved invalidated 2026-05-22, published 2026-05-21, published kill line fired. Conviction LOW, archetype Retail squeeze. --- ## Dossiers ### AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Advanced Micro Devices’ Helios thesis depends on an operating OpenAI deployment in the fourth quarter of 2026. September 9 analyst target changes extend favorable coverage, but delayed activation or a weekly close below $456 would invalidate the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $456 invalidates the September recovery by undercutting the 2026-09-03 market close of $456.16; independently, AMD or OpenAI postponing Helios activation beyond Q4 2026 breaks the deployment timetable. --- ### HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Hewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings upgrade has stronger price support at the 2026-09-09 close of $58.90. Confirmation requires a weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Networking Investor Day with the fiscal 2027 growth framework intact; a weekly close below $50 invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 invalidates the earnings-repricing thesis; a reduction in management's fiscal 2027 revenue-growth framework of 13–17%, announced on 2026-09-02, separately breaks the fundamental premise. --- ### HUM — Humana Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-10-08 Thesis: Humana's Medicare Advantage margin reset supports continuation above the $409.42 adjusted reference high before a daily close below $383. Bernstein maintained its $425 analyst target on 2026-09-09, while October Star Ratings leave the 2028 operating objective unresolved. Kill line: A daily close below $383 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the advance above the 2026-08-31 adjusted reference close of $383.23. --- ### IRDM — Iridium Communications Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IRDM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Iridium Communications’ merger-discount thesis depends on Rocket Lab completing the acquisition announced on 2026-06-29. The 2026-09-24 vote tests shareholder approval; completion before a weekly close below $43.50 settles the published case. Kill line: A weekly close below $43.50 invalidates the merger-premium structure near the market’s $43.52 pre-announcement close on 2026-06-26; formal termination or certified shareholder rejection separately ends the completion thesis. --- ### JBHT — J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBHT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: J.B. Hunt’s freight recovery requires stronger intermodal pricing and continued profit growth at the estimated 2026-10-15 report. Confirmation requires fuel-excluded pricing growth above Q2’s 1% year-over-year increase and rising intermodal operating income before a weekly close below $265 invalidates the structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $265 invalidates the published freight-recovery structure, measured against the adjusted daily-bar series used for the 2026-09-09 reference close. --- ### MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRCY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-06 Themes: Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report. Kill line: A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows. --- ### MU — Micron Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Micron Technology's contracted memory revenue supports a durability thesis tested by its 2026-09-30 results against June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion revenue guidance and approximately 86% adjusted gross margin. A weekly close below $958 invalidates the rebound before confirmation. Kill line: A weekly close below $958 breaks the rebound structure retained in the 2026-09-09 dossier. Secondary failure: 2026-09-30 revenue below the lower end of June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion guidance or adjusted gross margin below 86%. --- ### NTAP — NetApp, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NTAP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: NetApp's AI storage expansion must meet its September guidance before a weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis. Fiscal-Q2 revenue of at least $2.025 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 67.0%, with the September 2 annual revenue outlook maintained, would confirm the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis; fiscal-Q2 revenue below $2.025 billion, non-GAAP gross margin below 67.0%, or a reduction to the fiscal-2027 revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 independently invalidates the operating case. --- ### OKTA — Okta, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. --- ### OSCR — Oscar Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OSCR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Oscar Health's next valuation leg needs quantified 2027 growth at its September 16, 2026 Investor Day. Confirmation requires that disclosure and a subsequent weekly close above $32.76 before a weekly close below $29.83; absence of the specified growth framework also ends the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $29.83 breaks the post-August 6 earnings structure. Separately, September 16, 2026 passing without either a quantified 2027 membership range or a quantified 2027 premium framework ends the information-catalyst thesis. --- ### RXO — RXO, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RXO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. --- ### SIMO — Silicon Motion Technology Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIMO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Silicon Motion's storage-controller expansion needs third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $519 million to validate the recovery before a weekly close below $230 breaks it. Its September 9 certification adds no revenue guidance; reported sales settle the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $230 breaks the recovery thesis beneath the market's 2026-08-13 shelf at $238.51 and 2026-09-03 session low near $231.51. Reported third-quarter 2026 revenue below management's $519 million guidance floor independently defeats the operating case. --- ### TXG — 10x Genomics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TXG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: 10x Genomics' Atera launch and Parse patent verdict support a recovery thesis tested by a weekly close above $65.12 before a weekly close below $58.57. The September 9 daily close of $67.29 advances that test, while shipment execution and the requested injunction remain unresolved. Kill line: A weekly close below $58.57 breaks the August shelf identified in the September 9 published analysis and ends the continuation thesis; deferral of the disclosed second-half Atera shipment plan into 2027 would separately undermine the operating case. --- ### XMTR — Xometry, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XMTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Xometry's AI manufacturing thesis depends on marketplace growth delivering its August 4 profit guidance. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the annual growth outlook maintained, would confirm the case; a weekly close below $85 would invalidate the price structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 breaks the June 2, 2026 public-offering reference; third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million or a reduction in the August 4 full-year revenue-growth outlook also rejects the operating case. --- ### ARCB — ArcBest Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARCB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: ArcBest’s cost reductions must preserve margins: Q3 2026 recurring savings and an adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio at or below Q2’s 90.8% would confirm the case. A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the price-supported thesis first. Kill line: A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the rebound component at the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; a Q3 2026 adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio above 90.8% separately fails the margin-preservation condition. --- ### ATEX — Anterix Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Anterix's spectrum-conversion thesis requires another utility agreement with disclosed payments before a weekly close below $85.31 invalidates it. The 2026-09-09 daily close of $83.93 is below that reference but does not itself establish a weekly breach. Kill line: A weekly close below $85.31 breaks the 2026-08-20 support reference and invalidates the setup before another utility spectrum agreement with disclosed contractual payments confirms conversion. --- ### CNC — Centene Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: HELD Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Centene's margin-repair case requires sustained earnings guidance and a weekly breakout above $68.72 by its 2026-10-27 results. The 2026-09-09 daily close of $64.06 leaves continuation under pressure; a weekly close below $65 or a reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance above $4.80 invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 ends the September continuation thesis. Withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance above $4.80 independently breaks the fundamental case; failure to close weekly above $68.72 by 2026-10-27 ends the time-bounded thesis. --- ### DAVE — Dave Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DAVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Dave Inc.'s growth-and-credit-quality story supports a recovery case, completed by a weekly close above the September 3 reference close of $390.86 before a weekly close below $358 invalidates it. The September 9, 2026 close of $361.88 leaves confirmation unresolved and the evidence weak. Kill line: A weekly close below $358 invalidates the published recovery case; a reduction below the August 5, 2026 full-year operating-revenue guidance floor of $725 million separately breaks the operating premise. --- ### DELL — Dell Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DELL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Dell Technologies’ AI-server backlog must convert into roughly $19 billion of next-quarter revenue while ISG operating margin holds at least 15.0%. The next quarterly results test those September 1, 2026 benchmarks; management’s margin caveat keeps conviction low despite September 9’s analyst target increase. Kill line: A weekly close below $456 breaks the pre-results structure beneath the August 31, 2026 close of $456.01. Secondary failure occurs if Dell reduces its roughly $19 billion next-quarter AI-server revenue outlook, reports below it, or reports ISG operating margin below 15.0%. --- ### HNGE — Hinge Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNGE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. --- ### LSTR — Landstar System, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Landstar System's truckload repricing needs to produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results confirm the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed Q2's $1.44 before a weekly close below $167. Kill line: A weekly close below $167 breaks the published price structure. Separately, no year-over-year growth in truck revenue per load in the 2026-10-27 results invalidates the operating repricing thesis. --- ### MRVL — Marvell Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the $250-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging. Kill line: a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints. --- ### SEZL — Sezzle Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEZL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Sezzle's recovery thesis is that profitable growth can repair its post-earnings price structure. A daily close above the 2026-08-17 recovery level of $129.87 would establish the case before a weekly close below $114 invalidates it; the 2026-09-09 close of $117.14 has instead lost the August 18 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $114 invalidates the recovery thesis by undercutting the 2026-09-01 closing low of $114.52, following the 2026-09-09 daily close below the August 18 shelf of $117.18. --- ### SNX — TD SYNNEX Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: HELD Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: TD SYNNEX's Hyve business links AI hardware demand to earnings; the 2026-09-24 results test whether growth exceeds guidance. The case requires revenue above $19.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS above $4.75 before a weekly close below $255 invalidates the September reclaim. Kill line: A weekly close below $255 forfeits the September reclaim of the $255.70 market pivot. Separately, fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS below management's $4.25 guidance floor on 2026-09-24 invalidates the earnings-transmission thesis. --- ### STX — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings. Kill line: A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. --- ### UMC — United Microelectronic Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. --- ### WDC — Western Digital Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: HELD Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-06 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI chips & memory Thesis: The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar. --- ### XPO — XPO, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XPO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: HELD Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: XPO, Inc.'s shipment-growth story requires continued volume growth and a third-quarter adjusted LTL operating ratio below 81% at the confirmed 2026-10-29 results. A weekly close below $185 invalidates the price case first; the 2026-09-09 daily close of $184.25 already lies below that threshold without establishing a weekly breach. Kill line: A weekly close below $185 invalidates the September price thesis. Separately, a Q3 2026 adjusted LTL operating ratio of 81% or higher fails management's below-81% guidance issued on 2026-07-30. --- ### APGE — Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APGE/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The all-cash takeout settled: the AbbVie merger became effective 2026-09-03 at $135.11 per share (~$10.9B equity value), trading was halted after the 2026-09-02 close of $135.07 and Nasdaq suspended the stock 2026-09-04. The leg terminated at its cap with the $130 band never breached, Form 25 requested and Form 15 to follow, leaving a resolved situation with no tradeable catalyst under this symbol. Kill line: A daily close below $130 was the break condition and it never printed: the last completed close was $135.07 on 2026-09-02, trading halted after it, and the merger became effective 2026-09-03 at $135.11 in cash. With Nasdaq suspension on 2026-09-04 there is no further series to grade. --- ### ATAI — AtaiBeckley Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATAI/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: All named antitrust gates are retired: HSR expired 2026-08-28, the UK CMA had no further questions on 2026-08-21, Germany cleared 2026-07-30, and the ACCC's 14-day waiting period runs to 10:00 a.m. ET on 2026-09-10. Only the 2026-09-08 shareholder vote and the guided Q3 close remain. Above the $6.75 cash leg, the entire premium is an unpublished CVR worth up to $2.50 — a saturated situation under a contractual $9.25 ceiling. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.75 breaks the Lilly cash-consideration floor and marks the tape pricing deal-break risk toward the pre-announcement ~$4 zone; secondarily, a failed or adjourned 2026-09-08 shareholder vote, or an interruption of the ACCC waiting period before its 2026-09-10 expiry. --- ### DSGR — Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DSGR/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: M&A & special situations, Industrial power & grid Thesis: DSGR trades $0.34 under the $35.00 all-cash price LKCM Headwater agreed on 2026-07-16 to pay for the ~21% of the company it does not already own; the 2026-09-01 PREM14A and SC 13E-3 filings started the clock, leaving only HSR and a majority of votes cast by non-LKCM holders open. Kill line: A daily close below $33.50 pushes the spread past 4% to the $35.00 contract price and signals the market repricing completion odds; a second HSR request, or no definitive proxy within roughly two months of the 2026-09-01 preliminary, would corroborate. --- ### ATKR — Atkore Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATKR/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Industrial power & grid, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Eight days to the HSR gate: notifications filed 2026-08-14 put the initial waiting period's expiry at 2026-09-14, and EDGAR still shows no definitive proxy as of 2026-09-06 — the 2026-08-28 PREM14A leaves meeting date, record date and shares outstanding blank. The last close in hand, $93.55 on 2026-09-02, sits $1.45 under Prysmian's $95.00 cash consideration, leaving a maturing situation whose only live variable is regulatory timing against a year-end 2026 target. Kill line: A weekly close below $88 (seven dollars under the $95.00 cash consideration) prices genuine deal-break risk rather than carry; secondarily an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request instead of expiry on 2026-09-14, an in-depth review in Austria, Australia or Canada, or no DEFM14A on EDGAR by late September 2026. --- ### BWMN — Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWMN/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-13 Thesis: Bowman Consulting Group’s $43.00 cash acquisition makes merger completion the central thesis. The case resolves with payment of the announced consideration before a daily close below $40.50; the 2026-09-13 go-shop deadline narrows solicitation rights without ruling out a later superior proposal. Kill line: A daily close below $40.50 invalidates the completion-before-price-deterioration thesis. A disclosed merger termination, failed shareholder vote or financing failure preventing completion independently breaks the transaction case. --- ### CXW — CoreCivic, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CXW/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Travel & leisure, Managed care & health services, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: DHS is buying CoreCivic's detention real estate outright — $2.2B gross for four facilities, about $307k/bed — while CoreCivic keeps operating them; proceeds funded $608.5M of debt repayment and a $500M buyback expansion (2026-08-05 release). Shares closed 2026-09-04 at a 52-week high of $34.71 with RSI 56.4, and no company-dated catalyst falls inside the next 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 (loses the August consolidation band at $33.29–$33.96 under the 2026-09-04 high of $34.71); secondarily, the ICE facility-purchase discussions called preliminary on 2026-08-05 producing no announced sale by the Q3 print around 2026-11-04. --- ### DCTH — Delcath Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DCTH/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Self-funded liver-directed procedure ramp — Q2 revenue $29.133M, 90% gross margin, FY26 guide $104–108M — is now trading on calendar rather than data: the public record ends at the 2026-08-31 conference release, the 2026-09-04 close of $16.48 sits 5.1% under the 52-week high of $17.36 with RSI(14) at 40.1 versus 74.1 on 2026-08-21, and the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-15 conference slots carry no scheduled readout. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.00 surrenders the entire advance off the 2026-08-06 print; secondary conditions: the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-15 conference dates passing with no press release or rating action and no close above the 52-week high of $17.36, or FY26 revenue guided beneath the $104M floor at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### FSM — Fortuna Mining Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Gold rebounded 2% to $4,478 on 2026-09-03 after an ADP count of 38,000 August private jobs cut September hike odds, and FSM took the whole move to $12.66 — 7.3% off its $13.66 high — having held $12.26 through the prior week's slide to $4,375. No company-dated event lands before the mid-October Q3 release, leaving a maturing, gold-levered narrative whose only scheduled binary is the 2026-09-16 FOMC and its dot plot. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance that carried the shares to within 7.3% of the $13.66 52-week high; secondary breaks are the 2026-09-16 FOMC delivering a hike with gold losing $4,000/oz, or 2026 output guided under the 281,000–305,000 GEO range at the mid-October Q3 production release. --- ### GEO — The GEO Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GEO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Travel & leisure, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Federal detention-capacity narrative is converting to signed revenue: five-year ICE contracts effective 2026-07-09 (Big Horn, 1,188 beds, ~$85M/yr) and 2026-08-01 (Rivers, 1,320 beds, ~$80M/yr), with FY26 GAAP EPS guided up to $1.27–$1.32 from $1.15–$1.25 on 2026-08-06. Shares consolidate 3.1% under the $32.77 52-week high; the Q4 guide of $0.28–$0.31 vs $0.35 consensus is the crack in an otherwise raised year. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 ends the activation leg (post-print structure gone). Secondary: a Q3 print (~2026-11-05 est.) at or under the $0.35 low end of guidance, or Q4 reaffirmed at $0.28–$0.31, with no new ICE facility contract announced since 2026-08-01. --- ### HAE — Haemonetics Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAE/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: The CSL option is now priced by the sell side and still unpriced by the company: six analyst actions since 2026-08-07 took the top of the range to Raymond James' $125 on 2026-09-03, yet the 2026-09-04 close of $102.92 sits 5.4% under the 2026-08-18 high of $108.80, leaving a maturing narrative holding a gap it cannot re-rate without a number until the ~2026-11-05 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $91 fills the entire 2026-08-18 CSL-agreement gap and returns price beneath the 2026-08-14 close of $90.80; secondarily, a ~2026-11-05 Q2 FY2027 call that quantifies the CSL transition as immaterial to FY2027 or leaves the +4–7% organic range unchanged. --- ### HALO — Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HALO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Royalty-compounding re-rating: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print beat at $481.0M vs $407.5M consensus and lifted the FY26 non-GAAP EPS guide to $8.65–9.00 from $7.75–8.25, and the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $110.19, 0.5% off its 52-week high. The 09-09/09-15/09-16 conference window is the only near-term new information before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $98 (loses the $98.58–$107.90 August post-print shelf); secondarily, the 09-09 / 09-15 / 09-16 conference window passing with no new platform deal and no target above HC Wainwright's $115 while price stalls under the $110.76 high. --- ### HZO — MarineMax, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HZO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Deal pin rather than a growth story: the $53.00 all-cash Safe Harbor/Blackstone Infrastructure take-private signed 2026-08-09 leaves $0.89 to terms at the 2026-09-02 close of $52.11. The gap widened from $0.80 on 2026-08-21 while no preliminary merger proxy reached EDGAR and no HSR clearance was announced, so clearance and vote timing are now the whole story. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 (gross spread past ~5.7% against the $53.00 cash terms), or an HSR second request or disclosed foreign investment review that pushes the stated end-2026 close into 2027. --- ### IAG — IAMGold Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IAG/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: The margin leg's revenue side firmed: spot gold was quoted $4,489.80/oz on 2026-09-03, above the $4,384/oz IAMGOLD realized in Q2, so the spread no longer needs new metal highs — only the Côté ramp pulling AISC back from $2,271/oz toward the $2,000–$2,150 guide. The 2026-09-28 Mining Forum slot is the sole company-dated checkpoint before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative the metal rather than the company is driving. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.50 ends the margin-expansion leg — it would break under the 2026-09-02 close of $20.20 set on the weakest gold quote of the window. Secondary confirmation: spot gold sustaining under $4,300 into the 2026-09-30 quarter close, or the 2026-09-28 Mining Forum slot passing with no Côté throughput or unit-cost update. --- ### IOVA — Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IOVA/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Amtagvi's commercial ramp inflected on the 2026-08-06 print — approximately $99.3M revenue, 56% gross margin, and FY2026 guidance of $350–370M pulled under review for an upward revision management said lands in Q3. The narrative is accelerating into that unissued revision, and the 2026-09-10 Wells Fargo fireside chat is the first dated venue where it could be characterised. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 ends the post-Q2 advance (the level UBS marked on 2026-08-20, roughly 20% under the 2026-09-04 close of $8.79); secondarily, a Q3 2026 guidance update that leaves FY2026 revenue at $350–370M removes the fundamental leg. --- ### LFST — LifeStance Health Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LFST/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Margin-inflection pivot is now being repriced by the calendar rather than by new company data: LifeStance confirmed on 2026-09-01 that its CFO presents at Jefferies on 2026-09-14 and its CEO at Morgan Stanley on 2026-09-15, putting two dated appearances inside an eleven-week gap while price consolidates 1.2% under the $12.89 high and the CTO sold again on 2026-09-02 at a weighted average $12.87. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 unwinds the entire August–September advance measured off the $10.85 area transacted on 2026-08-10. Secondary: the 2026-09-14 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances passing with no new operating datapoint and no target revision above the $13.80 average of the 11 analysts polled by S&P Global. --- ### LPG — Dorian Lpg Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LPG/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Dorian has pre-fixed 99% of September-quarter calendar days above $88,000/day (2026-09-04 release) against a record $75,926 June-quarter TCE, with the Strait of Hormuz at day 188 and Brent near $96. The freight spike is the trade, not a franchise; the 2026-09-04 close of $55.20 is a 52-week high with RSI 74.9 and no company-dated event before the estimated early-November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 gives back the breakout shelf ($47.42, rejected May 2026 and 2026-08-14, reclaimed in the week to 2026-08-21). Secondarily, a signed Hormuz reopening with transits recovering from the 6-vessel 2026-08-30 count toward the 85/day pre-crisis baseline. --- ### PSNL — Personalis, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSNL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-26 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-22 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The MRD story has been overtaken by a live sale process: StreetInsider reported 2026-07-17 that Personalis retained Centerview, TD Securities and Cooley after takeover interest from Merck (already a >10% holder and 19% of Q1 revenue) plus two other suitors. Price broke to a $16.39 52-week high; Needham $17 and TD Cowen $18 now sit above the tape. Aug-4 Q2 is the next hard date. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 fills the July sale-process gap and loses the rising 20-EMA, which would price the strategic review as going nowhere. Secondary: an explicit denial or termination of the review, or an Aug-4 Q2 print showing biopharma-MRD revenue tracking under the ~$20-21M FY run-rate. --- ### SIBN — SI-BONE, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIBN/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Momentum reset without a price give-back: since the 2026-08-03 Q2 beat ($56.01M, +15.2% YoY; FY26 floor raised to $231M) price has held the reclaimed $17.05 shelf, closing $19.21 on 2026-08-28 while RSI(14) unwound from 72.0 to 55.1. The spinopelvic-growth story is well known and unanimously rated, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 surrenders the $17.05 shelf reclaimed after the 2026-08-03 Q2 print and returns price to the $14.13–$17.05 June–July range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-02) with revenue down more than the guided 1–2% sequentially, or any trim to the $231–233M FY2026 guide. --- ### SSRM — SSR Mining Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SSRM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Post-Çöpler balance-sheet reset — $1,783.0M cash, no long-term debt, a $500M buyback — now trades as a rate-path derivative: the 2026-09-03 close of $38.89 sits 0.8% under the $39.21 52-week high after gold rebounded to ~$4,491/oz. The company story has been fully disclosed since 2026-08-04 and no analyst target has moved since 2026-08-10, leaving a maturing narrative whose remaining inputs are the 2026-09-04 payrolls print and the 2026-09-16 dot plot. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 ends the post-divestiture re-rating leg (2026-09-03 close $38.89; 52-week high $39.21). Secondary: gold settling under $4,200/oz on successive weekly closes, or 2026-09-30 passing with the dividend paid, the Denver forum over and no capital-deployment announcement. --- ### TVTX — Travere Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TVTX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The FSGS/IgAN ramp story stalled rather than broke: the 2026-09-04 close of $65.28 sits 3.3% under the 2026-08-27 high of $67.52 with RSI(14) decayed from 65.6 to 56.0 and no published target change since Piper Sandler's $68 on 2026-08-17. The Sept 8–10 conference block is the only company-dated event before an estimated early-November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative resting on the ~$64.90 convert conversion reference. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 fills the 2026-08-05 post-print gap and returns price into the July range (07-07 close $57.85, 07-17 close $56.71). Secondary: the Sept 8–10 conference block closing with no estimate revision and price still under $67.52, or Q3 start forms below the 2,012 booked in Q2 2026. --- ### UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UGP/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The operating leg has printed and only the undated Ipiranga stake sale is left to underwrite the premium: the 2026-08-28 close of $6.45 sits 2.0% under the $6.58 52-week high with RSI(14) 69.2 after a 30.2% three-month advance built without a new company disclosure. Goldman cut its target to $5.80 on 2026-08-26 against B of A's $7.40; Copom on 2026-09-16 is the only dated input before the Q3 print (~2026-11-11 est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $5.80 gives back the July breakout shelf and more than half the advance off the 2026-07-02 low, landing on Goldman Sachs' 2026-08-26 target; secondarily, a company statement or credible report that the Ipiranga sale process ended without a transaction. --- ### VREX — Varex Imaging Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VREX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: Signed all-cash takeout at $18.90 (Teledyne, 2026-08-10); the 2026-09-02 close of $18.47 leaves $0.43 of gross gap, three cents wider than on 2026-08-28. Twenty-four days past signing, EDGAR shows nothing after the 2026-08-18 Form 4 — no preliminary merger proxy, no announced HSR expiry — so what trades is regulatory duration into a close guided for early calendar 2027, a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $17.50 (gross gap wider than ~7% to the fixed $18.90 cash price) marks completion risk being priced rather than time value; secondarily, an 8-K disclosing an antitrust second request, or 2026-09-28 passing with no preliminary merger proxy on file and no announced HSR expiry. --- ### AAMI — Acadian Asset Management Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAMI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cybersecurity Thesis: Pure-play quant manager compounding: AUM $232.7B at 2026-06-30 (+54% YoY), H1 net client inflows $25.7B, ENI operating margin 40.3% vs 30.7%. The re-rating is already aired — Evercore ISI lifted its target to $96 on 2026-08-10 at In Line, price stalled 3.8% under the $97.31 high, and no company-dated catalyst lands before the Q3 print in late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $84 (erases the post-Q2 repricing and returns price to the 2026-06-17 block zone near $77.25); secondarily, negative net client cash flows at the Q3 print near 2026-10-29 after +$4.3B in Q2. --- ### ABCL — AbCellera Biologics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABCL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Post-binary shelf intact and unchanged: closes of $11.38 (08-14), $11.35 (08-28) and $11.36 (09-02) against the $9.75 follow-on price, with RSI(14) unwinding 97.4 → 52.9. The 2026-09-09 Cantor Global Healthcare presentation is the only company-dated event inside 30 days and the first management appearance since the 2026-08-10 ABCL635 readout — a talk, not a dataset, and the sole venue where Phase 3 timing surfaces before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print in a maturing narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.75, the 2026-08-12 follow-on pricing level, retraces the post-data move into the 17,435,897 shares issued at it; secondary, the 2026-09-09 Cantor appearance passing with no Phase 3 start window and no end-of-Phase-2 meeting date, and ABCL575 Phase 1 top-line slipping out of Q4 2026. --- ### ABSI — Absci Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABSI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, AI datacenter infrastructure, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Single-asset binary: ABS-201's interim hair-growth proof-of-concept is guided to 2H 2026 with no confirmed date, funded by the June 2026 $100M raise that left $201.1M at 2026-06-30 and a runway into H2 2028. Since the 2026-08-11 revenue miss ($318K vs $1.169M consensus) the only company news has been a 2026-09-01 conference notice and a non-discretionary CFO Form 4, leaving a maturing narrative whose next re-rating needs human efficacy data rather than platform headlines. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 gives back the consolidation shelf built since the 2026-06-24 ABS-201 interim release; secondarily, the guided 2H 2026 interim proof-of-concept window closing with the readout restated to early 2027 at the Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-10). --- ### ADPT — Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-26 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22 sell-side band, running into a binary July 29 Q2 print — extension plus imminent earnings, not a clean fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 loses the rising 20-week base and the June–July breakout shelf above the old $20–22 sell-side band; a push-out of the positive end-2026 adjusted-EBITDA/FCF target on the July 29 print, or the theme flipping to saturated, would confirm the inflection break. --- ### AGCO — AGCO Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: AGCO Corporation's valuation reflects a 2027 farm-equipment recovery that remains unconfirmed by reported demand. A weekly close above the $139.71 market high recorded as of 2026-09-04 and Q3 results meeting July guidance would confirm the case; a weekly close below $118 would invalidate it. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 invalidates the recovery price structure; separately, Q3 2026 sales below $2.3 billion or adjusted EPS below $0.85 would break the earnings-trough assumption embedded in AGCO's 2026-07-30 guidance. --- ### AGM — Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Farm-credit GSE re-rating on infrastructure lending: the 2026-07-30 Q2 print put outstanding volume at $37.2B (+22% YoY) with $13.1B now in infrastructure — power, renewables, broadband, data-center-adjacent — at 18.9% core ROE. The tape has now closed the gap to the highest publicly reported sell-side target ($228, KBW, May 2026), and nothing company-dated lands before the early-November Q3 report, leaving a maturing narrative to hold a 26.6% three-month advance on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $210 unwinds the post-2026-07-30 re-rating and leaves the $241.74 52-week high unretested; secondarily, a Q3 report in early November printing net effective spread at or below the $117.4M Q2 record while volume still rises. --- ### ALVO — Alvotech URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALVO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Alvotech's recovery prices in Q4 2026 FDA approvals after the Reykjavik inspection closure announced on 2026-07-29. AVT05 and AVT06 approvals within that window would confirm the regulatory-repair case; another manufacturing-related rejection would break it. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 breaches the market threshold published on 2026-09-07; independently, another manufacturing-related FDA rejection for AVT05 or AVT06, or a disclosed delay beyond Q4 2026, breaks the regulatory-repair thesis. --- ### AMLX — Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMLX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-19 Thesis: The binary resolved on 2026-08-18 (LUCIDITY: 55% cut in Level 2/3 hypoglycemic events, p=0.000003) and the launch was funded at $35.50 on 2026-08-20 for ~$471.7M net. What is left is the regulatory leg — NDA guided by year-end 2026, with a PBH-specific ICD-10 code effective 2026-10-01 — while the 2026-09-02 close of $34.49 still sits under the deal price and no company-dated event lands before Q3, leaving a maturing narrative running on flow. Kill line: secondarily, year-end 2026 NDA submission guidance being restated to 2027 at the Q3 report. --- ### APPN — Appian Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APPN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Second-order agentic-AI re-rating met its first real supply: the 52-week range top moved to $46.06 and the 2026-09-04 close came in at $38.37, down 6.00% on the session, still above the compiled $34.00 average target that stockanalysis.com marked as 11.39% downside. The 2026-09-09 Citi TMT fireside is the only dated company event before an unannounced ~November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on flow with no reported number to check it. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 gives back the $34.64 weekly close of 2026-08-07 and every post-print weekly close, re-opening the unfilled $30.41 pre-print gap. Secondary: the 2026-09-09 Citi fireside passing with no estimate revision above the $42 DA Davidson mark, or Q3 billings again growing under 10% YoY. --- ### AQST — Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AQST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Anaphylm's 2026-01-30 CRL was usability-scoped, and the 2026-08-10 human factors data — median pouch-opening time 3 seconds versus 17 — addresses the named deficiency, with the NDA resubmission guided into Q3 2026, a window closing 2026-09-30. The re-rating is running hot into a filing that still has to land: a $5.34 close on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 75.5 against a $4.30 50-day average. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.47, the 200-day moving average as of 2026-09-04, ends the recovery leg off the post-CRL base; secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announced Anaphylm NDA resubmission, or an equity offering priced into September strength. --- ### ASMB — Assembly Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASMB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Gilead-validated antiviral: Gilead exercised the HPI license option on 2025-12-22 ($35M net fee, up to $330M milestones), Q2 beat both lines on 2026-08-13, and Assembly's 40% US cost/profit-share opt-in is due by year-end 2026. The 2026-09-04 close was $36.60, 4.9% below the 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 77.5 and no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days, leaving an accelerating story running on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 gives back the ground built after the 2026-08-13 Q2 print and puts price under the late-August trading area; secondarily, the year-end 2026 opt-in decision and both Phase 2 initiations slipping into 2027 at the Q3 print with no new date attached. --- ### ASST — Strive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: Strive, Inc.'s bitcoin-treasury premium thesis depends on increasing bitcoin per diluted common share. A company-reported year-to-date Bitcoin Yield above the 40.8% reading dated 2026-08-28 would confirm the case before a weekly close below $21 invalidates it; the September 8 filing supplies no updated yield. Kill line: A weekly close below $21 invalidates the momentum thesis; a subsequent company disclosure showing declining bitcoin per diluted common share while common issuance continues also breaks the financing case. --- ### ASTH — Astrana Health Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Full-risk value-based-care compounder: the 2026-08-06 Q2 raised FY adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255–280M on 49% revenue growth, but revenue missed at $972.5M vs $985.7M consensus and the shares sit 22.8% under the $49.81 high. Truist $55 and Barclays $53 targets landed by 2026-08-11 and produced no trend, leaving a maturing story with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 (erases the recovery leg off the early-August drawdown and returns the shares to post-print lows), or Q3 revenue printing under the $1.000B low end of guidance with the $255–280M FY adjusted EBITDA range trimmed. --- ### ATRC — AtriCure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATRC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: The buyer changed: S&P DJI added ATRC to the SmallCap 600 on 2026-09-04, effective before the 2026-09-21 open, and Needham went to $64 from $45 on 2026-09-02 — while the last company number remains the 2026-07-23 Q2 print. The 2026-09-04 close of $51.52 sits 2.0% under the $52.59 52-week high at RSI(14) 75.6, with a one-off rebalance bid landing ahead of an undated Q3 report, est. ~2026-10-22. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 hands back the entire September leg — the 2026-09-02 Needham re-mark to $64 and the 2026-09-04 S&P SmallCap 600 announcement — and puts the mid-August $43–44 shelf back in play. Secondary condition: the 2026-09-21 inclusion passing with FY2026 revenue still $602–610M into the Q3 print. --- ### AVAH — Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVAH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: the last close carried into coverage is $13.58 (2026-09-04) against a $13.82 52-week high — and the leg on offer is a fifth straight FY2026 guide raise at the Q3 print. Between here and then: two conference dates, a ~2026-09-20 over-allotment expiry, and a Form 144 filed 2026-08-27 that has not yet produced a Form 4. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.75 surrenders the 2026-08-21 secondary price at which 15,000,000 sponsor and insider shares cleared; secondary conditions are a disclosed exercise of the 2,250,000-share over-allotment before ~2026-09-20, or a maintained rather than raised FY2026 guide at the Q3 print. --- ### BAX — Baxter International Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: Legacy medtech turnaround re-rating: the 2026-07-30 Q2 print lifted FY26 organic growth guidance to 2-3% and adjusted EPS to $1.95-$2.15, gapping the shares to a $28.34 52-week high. Six weeks on, the 2026-09-04 close of $25.83 sits 8.9% below that high with RSI 49, leaving a maturing narrative whose next company-dated tests are the 2026-10-01 CFO handover and the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 fills the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise gap and returns the shares under the pre-announcement zone; secondary break is FY26 adjusted EPS guidance revised below the $1.95-$2.15 range at the Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.). --- ### BULL — Webull Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BULL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-06 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: June dormant-to-leader flip is confirming: the ~$7.52 breakout resolved up on the 2026-07-21 surge, Rosenblatt lifted its target to $13 (2026-07-16), and June ops printed 28.2M users / $800M net deposits. Theme accelerating; read is a held-breakout continuation as long as $7.30 holds as the flipped support shelf. Kill line: A daily close below $7.30 fails the breakout back into the $7 range and puts the June flip in question; a close below $6.60 loses the handle and 50-day, and a theme flip to saturated mainstream coverage without a fresh catalyst, or renewed relative weakness vs HOOD, caps the re-rate. --- ### CAI — Caris Life Sciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-2026-08-05 beat-and-raise ($263.7M vs $238.1M est; FY26 guide to $1.030–1.040B) is now consolidating: the 2026-08-28 close of $25.63 is back under the $26.50 median Street target, RSI(14) has cooled from 82.6 to 59.2, and no analyst has posted a new target since 2026-08-07 — a maturing leg with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 breaks the post-2026-08-05 gap structure and puts price under the lowest posted Street target (Piper Sandler's $21 Hold sits just below). Secondary: FY26 guidance reiterated at $1.030–1.040B rather than raised at the ~November Q3 print. --- ### CDNA — CareDx, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-LCD repricing extended rather than stalled: the $48.61 shelf broke, a 52-week high of $52.36 printed, and the 2026-08-28 close was $49.79 — all with no company release since 2026-08-07. The 2026-08-30 LCD effective date carries only ~$7.5M of 2026 revenue by management's sizing, and the calendar is then empty until the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative that has to hold on flow alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the whole August $46.69–$48.61 band and marks the post-guidance-raise repricing as a one-off. Secondary: a MolDX/CMS billing or coding article after 2026-08-30 capping surveillance frequency, or FY2026 revenue guidance trimmed below $490M at the Q3 print. --- ### CLDT — Chatham Lodging Trust URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLDT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Freight & logistics, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Guidance-raise leg in a small-cap lodging REIT with an AI-adjacent demand pocket: Q2 adjusted FFO $0.48 (+22% YoY) and FY26 AFFO guided to $1.28–$1.34 on 2026-08-04, with four Silicon Valley hotels at 17% of EBITDA printing July RevPAR +26%. The story has been public since that print and no company-dated catalyst lands before the ~November Q3 report, leaving a maturing narrative whose only near-term event is the ~2026-09-30 dividend record date. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 (marks the post-2026-08-04 guidance-raise range as failed); secondary, FY26 adjusted FFO guidance cut below the $1.28 floor or RevPAR guidance trimmed under the +1.5% low end at the Q3 print. --- ### CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Tariff-plus-free-cash-flow leg intact but the tape has stalled: after recovering to $12.42 on 2026-09-02 the stock was quoted at $12.46 on 2026-09-05, above the 11-analyst average target of $11.96, with no company disclosure since the 2026-08-21 DOE framework. Canada's counter-tariffs on $27.6B of US goods take effect 12:01 a.m. 2026-09-08 and the USW extension expires around 2026-10-01, leaving a maturing narrative whose near catalysts are political and contractual. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.62 surrenders the entire recovery off the 2026-08-28 low close and puts the 2026-07-23 earnings gap near $10.40 back in play. Secondary: the 2026-09-08 Canadian measures taking effect without a close above the 2026-09-05 high of $12.50, or the USW extension lapsing around 2026-10-01 without a ratified agreement. --- ### CLYM — Climb Bio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLYM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The 2026-09-03 CLYM116 Phase 1 read cleared: a single 320 mg dose suppressed APRIL >90% and IgA/Gd-IgA1 60–75% through 12 weeks, supporting quarterly dosing, and BTIG ($32), B. Riley ($30) and Baird ($25) re-marked within two sessions. The tape faded the $17.13 premarket print to a $15.52 close on 2026-09-04, and initial Phase 2 NAVIGATE-2 data sits in H1 2027, leaving the Q4 2026 budoprutug cluster as the next efficacy test of an accelerating but unconfirmed re-rate. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.30 gives back the June–July shelf and the entire post-EHA range; secondarily, any Q3 2026 disclosure moving budoprutug pMN, ITP or SLE data out of Q4 2026, which would leave no efficacy checkpoint before H1 2027 NAVIGATE-2 data. --- ### CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Thesis: Outbreak repair has done its work: the 2026-09-02 close of $38.52 has retraced the entire drawdown from the 2026-08-14 close of $33.50, and the CDC count has sat at 431 cases/32 states since its 2026-08-19 update. The marginal bid rotated to expansion — first Asia restaurant opened in Seoul 2026-09-02, B. of A. to a $53 target 2026-09-01 — while RSI(14) at 81.6 prices the recovery ahead of post-outbreak traffic data now confirmed for 2026-10-28. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 surrenders the shelf reclaimed in the week ending 2026-08-21 and puts price back inside the outbreak drawdown range; secondarily, the 2026-10-28 Q3 print showing comparable-sales transactions negative YoY against +1.0% in Q2 2026. --- ### CNH — CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: CNH Industrial's farm-equipment recovery is being priced ahead of earnings after September's analyst upgrades. The next quarterly report tests margin recovery, while a weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the re-rating leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the September re-rating leg; the reference is Evercore's 2026-08-11 analyst target. Separately, FY2026 agriculture adjusted EBIT margin guidance below 5.0% or adjusted diluted EPS guidance below $0.41 breaks the earnings foundation. --- ### COIN — Coinbase Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COIN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Two macro prints set the whole September range: a 10.1% surge to $192.70 on 2026-09-03 on Waller's hold signal and bitcoin above $81,000, then roughly 4% back on 09-04 as August payrolls printed +162,000 and hike odds moved to ~50%. The 200-day at $196.07 was never closed through, and the 09-15 cloture vote is priced at 14–15% into a maturing narrative with no company datapoint until early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $160 surrenders the 2026-08-19 gap-bottom close of $160.20 and the 08-28 50-day at $160.11 together, re-pointing at the $139.11–$145.60 shelf; secondarily, the 09-15 cloture motion being pulled or finishing short of 60 votes while the 09-16 FOMC delivers the hike priced near 50%. --- ### CRDL — Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. Class A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRDL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Single-asset cardiology micro-cap re-rating on Phase II publication flow and Canaccord's 2026-08-17 Buy reiteration at a $10 target; the shares closed 2026-09-04 at a 52-week high of $2.20, up 103.7% in three months, and the only company-dated event inside 30 days is MAVERIC Phase III target enrollment, guided by end of Q3 2026, with no topline date disclosed in the 2026-08-12 Q2 filing. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.75 ends the breakout leg (drops back beneath the January 2026 financing warrant strike); secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announcement that MAVERIC target enrollment is complete, or an equity financing before topline despite the stated runway into Q4 2027. --- ### CRM — Salesforce, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-27 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: De-rated Dow software incumbent on two dated legs: the $1.6B VA agentic ELA (2026-07-24) and Reuters' 2026-08-13 report of Silver Lake–Workday take-private talks, which put a private-market floor under mega-cap SaaS. Six target revisions between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-20 chased price to $209.17; the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print is the binary and much of the discount closed before it. Kill line: A daily close below $192 hands back the entire pre-print August advance and the shelf price held before the 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-20 target-raise cluster. Secondary: a 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print that trims the $45.9–$46.2B FY27 revenue guide, or shows cRPO growth below the +14% Y/Y Q1 pace. --- ### CRWD — CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Thesis: Fal.Con (2026-08-31 to 09-03) delivered real product — Falcon Guardian, Falcon IQ, GPT-5.6 Cyber in Falcon, Anthropic marketplace distribution — and nine broker actions through 2026-09-04 including Truist $300, yet CRWD closed $213.10 on 2026-09-04, below the $218.40 of 08-28 and the $233.88 range high. The catalyst is spent and no company-dated event lands before the ~2026-12-02 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative carried by targets rather than a widening bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 gives back the 2026-08-26 reaction gap and returns price into the pre-print range that ended with the $191.95 close of 2026-08-21; secondary, the ~2026-12-02 Q3 FY2027 print landing net new ARR below the $333M record or leaving the $1.350B–$1.359B FY2027 net-new-ARR guide unraised. --- ### CRWV — CoreWeave, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRWV/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-print repricing is holding but fading: the 2026-08-12 gap to $107.73 is unfilled after closes of $106.29 and $105.26, RSI 71.1. Q2 printed $128M adjusted operating income against a $30–90M guide, and the $2.6B facility closed 2026-08-10 at SOFR+5.50% partly answers the funding question — with ~5-year paper against ~3-year contracts. NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 print sets the neocloud tape. Kill line: A daily close below $93.65 fills the 2026-08-12 gap and gives back the 200-day mark measured 2026-08-10; secondarily, FY26 adjusted operating income trimmed from the $960M–$1.15B guide, or a new facility priced materially wider than the SOFR+5.50% struck on 2026-08-10. --- ### CVI — CVR ENERGY, INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: CVR Energy’s refining thesis is that Hormuz disruption lifts reported margins above second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel. Third-quarter results test that inference; a weekly close below $39 invalidates the price structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $39 invalidates the continuation thesis beneath the August breakout shelf identified in the September 7 analysis; separately, third-quarter 2026 refining margin at or below second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel rejects the expected operational improvement. --- ### CYRX — CryoPort, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CYRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Freight & logistics Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) split the read: revenue $49.0M beat $48.21M and FY26 guide affirmed at $192–196M with adjusted EBITDA crossing to +$0.4M, but commercial CGT growth halved to +9% YoY from +26%. The narrative leg is now the profitability crossover; the stock closed $15.12 on 2026-08-07, 8.8% under the $16.57 high, with no scheduled catalyst until ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 loses the 2026 breakout shelf and the 20-week EMA zone; secondary confirmation would be commercial CGT revenue failing to reaccelerate above +15% YoY at the ~November Q3 print, or any cut to the affirmed $192–196M FY2026 revenue band. --- ### DINO — HF Sinclair Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DINO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Refining-crack plus break-up story now trades above nearly every published mark: the 2026-09-04 close of $105.41 sits 0.7% under the 52-week high with RSI(14) at 70.0 against a sixteen-analyst average target of $83.42. No company-dated event lands between the 2026-08-11 pipeline FID and the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print, leaving an eight-week gap in which a maturing narrative is carried by the tape alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $93 (hands back the September extension and drops price beneath the $97.32 shelf set on 2026-08-21), with secondary confirmation from consecutive EIA weekly gasoline and distillate builds narrowing the 3-2-1 crack, or the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print showing sequentially lower refining gross margin per barrel on comparable throughput. --- ### DK — Delek US Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Record distillate cracks still carry the leg: EIA reported a fourth straight distillate draw (−2.2M bbl, week ended 2026-08-21, released 2026-08-26) with refineries at 97.4%, and the 2026-08-28 close of $72.25 was a 52-week high. But the price response has flattened since the +11.60% session of 2026-08-21 and coverage has turned retail-facing, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 hands back the 2026-08-21 breakout session (+11.60% to $71.47) and returns the shares beneath the $64.00 12-analyst mean target that stood that day; secondarily, consecutive EIA distillate builds with the diesel crack back under $100/bbl, or Q3 throughput under the 296,000–316,000 bpd guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) print. --- ### EGO — Eldorado Gold Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EGO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The macro leg has partially repaired — Waller's 2026-09-03 remarks cut September hike odds from ~63.3% to 50.3% and gold traded back to $4,488/oz — which leaves the company leg as the open question: Skouries first copper-gold concentrate is guided inside the September quarter, still unannounced as of 2026-09-04, with full site energisation waiting on a Greek regulator's sign-off and 26 days left in the window. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 (surrenders the August advance shelf with no base built under it); secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no Skouries first-concentrate release, or commercial production guided into 2027 at the 2026-10-29 Q3 print. --- ### ETON — Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ETON/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-26 Thesis: The post-print re-rate topped at an all-time closing high of $64.43 on 2026-08-24 and faded 7.2% to $59.78 by 2026-08-28, with no broker revision since 2026-08-14 and a second Form 4 disposal (director, 2026-08-28) after the CEO's 100,000 shares. The leg is now durability of the $37.568M Q2 product run-rate; the September IMPAVIDO start is the only dated item before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 hands back roughly half the 2026-08-14 earnings gap and breaks the post-print re-rate; secondarily an ATM, secondary or S-3 takedown 8-K filed while price holds within 10% of the 2026-08-24 high of $64.43, or Q3 product revenue printing below the $37.568M Q2 figure. --- ### EWTX — Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EWTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Post-divestiture cardiovascular pivot: Servier paid $1.55B upfront (closed 2026-07-10) for the muscular dystrophy franchise, leaving ~$2.01B pro forma cash behind EDG-7500 in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The re-rate is already in the tape — the 2026-08-31 ESC late-breaker re-presented the 2026-06-16 Phase 2 data — and no company-dated catalyst lands before the guided Q4 2026 Phase 3 start. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 ends the post-divestiture re-rate and puts price back toward Goldman's $36 target of 2026-08-11; secondary break is the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) pushing Phase 3 CIRRUS-HCM initiation out of the guided Q4 2026 window into 2027. --- ### EXK — Endeavour Silver Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Operating leverage is the leg: silver $66.25/oz on 2026-09-03 against a $36–38/oz planning deck, with Terronera ramping through Q3. No company disclosure since the 2026-08-24 restart, so the 43.4% three-month advance runs on the metal and the 2026-09-16 FOMC — a maturing re-rate with the $27–28/oz AISC guide still unmet after Q2's $36.89. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 puts price back beneath the base the 43.4% three-month advance was built from and ends the Terronera-ramp re-rating; secondarily, silver losing $55/oz, or Q3 2026 financials (est. early November) showing consolidated AISC still above $30/oz with no reset of the $27–28/oz guide. --- ### FA — First Advantage Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: M&A & special situations, Prediction markets & betting, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Aug 6 flipped the frame: Q2 revenue $448.8M/+14.9% vs $415.0M consensus, adj EPS $0.35 vs $0.28, and the first FY guide raise of the cycle ($1.67–1.71B). Needham upgraded to Buy/$28, RBC to $24 — targets moved above spot for the first time. A second leg on a labour-cyclical base that is still decelerating; the next test is payrolls, not the company. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 returns price inside the pre-print July range ($19.91–$22.49) and negates the Aug 6 earnings breakout; base revenue growth printing under 6.7% or a trimmed FY revenue range at the Q3 report would confirm the labour-cycle drag reaching the volume base. --- ### FBIZ — First Business Financial Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBIZ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Post-2026-07-30 re-rating in a micro-cap Wisconsin business bank: Q2 EPS $1.84 vs $1.54 consensus, NIM +22bp to 3.78%, record $19.8M pre-provision earnings, followed by target raises to $74 (KBW), $80 (DA Davidson) and $84 (Piper). Shares closed 2026-09-04 at $72.83, a 52-week high, with no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print, leaving a maturing leg carried by trend and the 2026-09-16 FOMC. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 (gives back the post-2026-07-30 advance and the rising 50-day at $68.04); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-29) showing NIM under the 3.78% posted in Q2 or pre-provision earnings under the $19.8M record. --- ### FDMT — 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FDMT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Wet-AMD durability re-rating off the 2026-07-18 PRISM 2-year data (78% injection-burden reduction, 2.7 vs 12.0 projected, n=30) is cooling without news: from the 2026-08-21 close of $15.83 the shares closed $14.67 on 2026-08-28, 12.5% under the 52-week high, RSI(14) 70.0 from 85.7. A three-conference September block and the guided Q3 DME Phase 3 start are the only tests before the 2026-10-21 Investor Day; the randomized proof is 4FRONT-1 topline in Q2 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 gives back the July–August impulse built on the 2026-07-18 PRISM 2-year data; secondary, Q3 2026 ending with the guided DME Phase 3 initiation unstarted, or a registered equity offering priced into the advance. --- ### FIGS — FIGS, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The post-print shelf resolved upward: the 2026-08-28 close of $15.42 sits 8.1% above the 2026-08-07 mark of $14.26 and 9.9% under the $17.12 52-week high, with no company-dated news since the 2026-08-07 target revisions. The re-rating off the 2026-08-06 Q2 beat and the raise to a $757.318M FY2026 guide now runs on flow until the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) tests margin without the $7.9M IEEPA refund. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.00 gives back the entire 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-21 shelf ($14.26–$14.68) and reopens the unfilled 2026-08-06 gap toward roughly $11; secondarily, any trim to the $757.318M FY2026 revenue guide or the 14.8–15.0% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### FRNM — Freenome, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FRNM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Freenome's approved blood-test story depends on Abbott launching SimpleScreen CRC and demonstrating reimbursed testing. Carelon's 2026-11-15 guideline strengthens the pathway; a weekly close below $14 or no US launch by 2026-12-31 invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 invalidates the post-approval price thesis; separately, no announced US commercial launch of SimpleScreen CRC by 2026-12-31 invalidates the commercial-timing case. --- ### FROG — JFrog Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FROG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Thesis: Software-supply-chain-security plus AI-agent "trust layer" narrative keeps re-rating: the analyst cluster now leads price above $100 (UBS Buy $110 Jul 2, Truist Buy $105 Jul 9), confirming the continuation tell flagged in June. Fundamentals accelerating (Q1 rev +26%, security 10% of ARR), but a fresh long is extended near 52-week highs with the ~Aug 6 Q2 print the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 loses the rising low-$80s 20-EMA and the prior $80.75 consensus shelf, breaking the momentum leg; a secondary break is the ~Aug 6 Q2 print cutting or merely reaffirming the FY26 $628M–$632M revenue guide, or the theme rolling to saturated with no fresh PT leadership above $110. --- ### FTK — Flotek Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from $270–290M. Both catalysts have printed, RSI(14) is 71.5 and consensus PT $36.92 sits at spot. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 un-prices the 2026-08-03 PREPA award and the 2026-08-04 guidance raise; secondary break is the Q4 2026 PREPA equipment-deployment window closing with no equipment in service, or a FY2026 revenue guide trim at the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### FTNT — Fortinet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTNT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) resolved up — revenue $2.047B vs ~$1.89B, product +52% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $8.020–8.180B — but price has gone nowhere since: $161.95 on 07-31, $160.01 on 08-14, still 4.9% under the $168.29 high. The 44-analyst mean target is $160.86, essentially at spot, rating still Hold. Nothing Fortinet-dated until ~2026-11-04; CRWD (08-26) and PANW (09-01) set the group multiple. The narrative is maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $150 forfeits the 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-28 pre-print closing band and puts price under the June 2026 all-time high of $151.97; secondary break if the $168.29 52-week high is still unreclaimed after both the CrowdStrike (2026-08-26) and Palo Alto (2026-09-01) prints. --- ### GTLB — GitLab Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTLB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: GitLab's consumption pivot got hard numbers on 2026-09-01: revenue $286.3M (+21% YoY), net ARR growth above 40%, dollar-based net retention up to 117%, FY27 guide raised to $1,129–$1,133M — and the shares gapped to a 52-week high of $51.04 on 2026-09-02. The leg being bought is agentic-dev monetization through Flex and Duo; the constraint is a Q3 guided to 15–16% growth and eight of nine re-marked broker targets clustered at or below the price. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 hands back the 2026-09-02 earnings gap and puts price under the $45–$48 broker target cluster set that day; a Q3 FY27 print beneath the $281M guidance floor (~2026-12-02, est.) would confirm the deceleration case. --- ### HBB — Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HBB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Tariff-reversal re-rating that has stopped extending: a $36.5M IEEPA refund lifted Q2 gross margin to 54.3% from 27.5% (print 2026-08-05), but ex-refund margin was 26.1% and FY2026 operating profit is still guided to a high-single-digit decline. Shares closed $31.51 on 2026-09-02, 6.9% under the $33.86 high, with RSI(14) back to 37.2 from above 70 on 2026-08-21 and no company-dated test of the margin before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $28.00 ends the post-refund advance; secondary condition, the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) landing with adjusted gross margin under the 26.1% posted for Q2, or FY operating profit guided back toward a low-teens decline. --- ### HL — Hecla Mining Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Debt-free silver margin with the metal moving again: silver $65.83/oz and gold $4,439.03/oz on 2026-09-03 against Q2 AISC of $6.07/oz ex-Keno and $63.06/oz realized, with the shares closing $21.21 the same day. No company datapoint lands until the Q3 report around 2026-11-05, so the 2026-09-16 FOMC dot plot is the binary that sets the real-rate path this equity trades on. Kill line: A weekly close below $19 erases the September leg (the 2026-09-02 low was $19.03) and returns the shares to the mid-August range; secondarily, the 2026-09-16 FOMC projections showing a higher path than June with silver back under the $63.06/oz Q2 realization and no new high in the silver miners within two weeks. --- ### HNST — The Honest Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Margin re-rate broke out rather than faded: the 2026-08-28 close of $5.67 sits 1.6% under a $5.76 52-week high and 12.3% above the 2026-08-21 consolidation low of $5.05, on no company headline since the 2026-08-20 conference notice. Price now trades above every post-print target except Morgan Stanley's $5.70, and nothing discloses a financial figure before the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 puts price back under the 2026-08-21 consolidation low and inside the $4.60–$5.46 August range, dating the late-August breakout as failed; secondary break is Q3 adjusted gross margin printing under the mid-40s FY guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) report, without the $6.6M tariff-refund credit. --- ### HOOD — Robinhood Markets, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HOOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Robinhood Markets' September repricing now includes prediction-market infrastructure alongside on-chain finance. Stronger August activity and a weekly close above $124.72 would confirm continuation; a weekly close below $107 would invalidate it. Kill line: A weekly close below $107 invalidates the September repricing thesis by returning the market toward the 2026-09-02 pre-jump close of $106.99. --- ### HP — Helmerich & Payne, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-10-04 Thesis: Land-drilling activity re-rating on a geopolitical crude move: Brent $95.25 on 2026-09-03 (+42% y/y) with the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q3 print delivering $1.034B revenue vs $988.74M consensus, 147 Lower 48 rigs working and a raised Q4 guide of 145–151 rigs. The acceleration is still in the commodity and the sell-side, not in earnings — adjusted EPS was a $0.11 loss vs $0.13 consensus, and no company-dated catalyst lands before the ~mid-November Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 (hands back the post-2026-08-05 advance and puts price under Morgan Stanley's $41 target of 2026-08-20); secondary, the weekly Baker Hughes US rig count flat or lower through October with Brent above $90, or the ~2026-11-16 Q4 print landing North America direct margin under the $245M guide low end. --- ### IREN — IREN Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IREN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-print de-rating has stabilised without reversing: the 2026-09-02 close of $39.60 is still 2.3% under the $40.53 pre-print level, and the four-session bounce came on neocloud sector flow with no IREN disclosure since 2026-08-28. The leg is conversion — $4B contracted ARR against $1B operating as of 2026-08-26, due fully operational by 2026-12-31 — with no company-dated proof scheduled before the November Q1 FY27 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 gives back the post-print floor set by the 2026-08-28 close of $35.45 and re-opens $30, the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian award landing without IREN, or the 2026-12-31 $4B operating-ARR target being reframed. --- ### KARO — Karooooo Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KARO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Emerging markets, AI enterprise software, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Record-subscriber-adds story cleared its ceiling: KARO closed $65.48 on 2026-09-04, 2.6% under a new $67.20 high, after breaking the $65.91 shelf founder-CEO Calisto had been selling into — Nothing estimate-moving until the ~2026-10-13 Q2 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on multiple alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 unwinds the late-August break through the prior $65.91 high and puts the shares back under the 2026-08-14 close of $62.28; secondary break is Q2 FY2027 net Cartrack adds (~2026-10-13 est.) reverting toward the prior-year 84,013 from the record 142,472. --- ### KRO — Kronos Worldwide, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KRO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Post-print re-rating extended rather than faded: the 2026-08-28 close of $8.80 sits 1.2% under a new $8.91 52-week high after Deutsche Bank raised its target to $9 from $6 on 2026-08-25 with a Buy — the first published target above the tape, closing the prior bear point. Consensus is now $8.50 across two analysts. Nothing dated resolves the TiO2 pricing half until Q3 (~2026-11-04), leaving a maturing narrative carried by one revision. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 gives back the late-August breakout and returns price inside the mid-August $8.20 shelf; secondarily, Q3 2026 results (~2026-11-04, est.) showing TiO2 average selling prices flat or down sequentially, or volumes back toward 132-135kt with inventory no longer declining, would break the pricing half of the recovery thesis. --- ### KRT — Karat Packaging Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KRT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Tariff-refund re-rating has stalled within 1.4% of the $49.80 52-week high: the 2026-08-28 close of $49.11 leaves Lake Street's $50 as the last published target above the market, RSI(14) has cooled from 78.4 to 58.2 without a lower low, and the 2026-09-10 Lake Street conference is the only company-dated event before the ~November Q3 print tests the 35–37% gross-margin guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 fills the 2026-08-06 post-print gap and ends the tariff-refund re-rating leg; secondary, the 2026-09-10 Lake Street conference passing with no second published target above the market while the 35–37% Q3 gross-margin guide stays untested into November. --- ### LIFE — Ethos Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LIFE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Guidance-durability re-rating broke to new highs — the 2026-09-04 close of $39.85 (+5.67% on the session) versus $34.16 on 2026-08-21, 52-week high $40.97 — with the only dated company event inside 30 days the CEO's 2026-09-09 Goldman Communacopia slot. Supply keeps moving: Sequoia funds converted 1,778,626 Class B on 2026-08-25 via in-kind distribution, which puts later LP sales outside Form 4 visibility. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 (re-enters the August band and undercuts the $31.8450 low of the disclosed 2026-08-19/20 insider executions). Secondary: the 2026-09-09 Goldman appearance passing with no update to the $160–164M Q3 guide and no published target above $37. --- ### LMND — Lemonade, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LMND/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI datacenter infrastructure, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The $50 shelf has held six weeks: $53.14 on 2026-09-02, RSI(14) 50.6, three reference closes since 2026-08-21 inside a $0.41 band. The state cadence restarted — Florida car 2026-08-26, Kansas renters 2026-09-01, Missouri car plus Autonomous Car 2026-09-02 — but the AI-underwriting margin claim stays undated until the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with no company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 breaks the shelf that has held since the 2026-07-29 print and leaves no visible structure until the spring lows; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) that raises FY26 adjusted-EBITDA loss guidance above $47-51M or moves breakeven language into 2027. --- ### LTH — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LTH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Premium-club compounder re-rating as the 2021-IPO sponsors clear out: comps +9.1% and FY2026 guidance raised on 2026-07-30, then Leonard Green placed 5.1M shares at $43.16 on 2026-08-10 and dropped below 5%. Price now sits on that placement shelf with no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print, leaving a maturing setup that has to hold ground it has already been given. Kill line: A weekly close below $39 (loses the shelf where 5,118,099 sponsor shares cleared at $43.16 on 2026-08-10, with no tested support until the spring $32.51/$28.60 transaction prices), or a Q3 print around 2026-10-22 that cuts the FY2026 comparable center revenue guide of 7.9%–8.3%. --- ### MANE — Veradermics, Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MANE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Extended-release oral minoxidil story: Study '302' showed +30.3/+33.0 hairs/cm² vs +7.3 placebo at Month 6 (2026-04-27, p<0.0001), and the confirmatory Study '304' topline guided to 2H26 is the binary. The 2026-09-04 close of $98.51 sits under the $100.00 April 29 follow-on print with RSI(14) at 33.2 — a well-known story whose flow has thinned while the readout has no confirmed date. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 (loses the $100.00 April 29, 2026 follow-on placement zone by a wide margin), or 2026-12-31 arriving with the guided 2H26 Study '304' topline unreported. --- ### META — Meta Platforms, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/META/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: Two dated numbers landed on 2026-09-02 that the capex-leverage story had been missing: Broadcom's Hock Tan put three MTIA generations and 3GW of Meta deployment on the record through end-2027, and Muse Spark 1.3 shipped as a paid API. Neither carries a disclosed dollar figure, so Connect on 2026-09-23 and the 2026-10-28 print remain where a payer gets named against the $130–145B capex guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $545 forfeits the shelf built off the 2026-07-30 low of $524.49 and re-exposes that low; secondary: Meta Connect on 2026-09-23/24 and the 2026-10-28 print both passing with no disclosed contract value or run rate for external compute or the Meta Model API. --- ### MGNI — Magnite, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGNI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The August deal-cadence gap closed on 2026-09-03: Magnite's Live Marketplace release named Disney Advertising, 37 media owners and +56% YoY live-sports ad spend (Jan–Jul 2026), and Needham took its target to $30 the same day, with the close back at $24.14 on 2026-09-04 and RSI(14) at 49.6. The narrative is still maturing — the 2026-09-08 Citi fireside is the only dated management forum before the 2026-11-11 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $21 fills the 2026-08-06 post-Q2 gap and returns the shares to the pre-print July range. Secondarily, the 2026-09-08 Citi fireside and the rest of the September conference block passing with no new named supply agreement leaves no company-dated event before the 2026-11-11 Q3 print. --- ### MGNX — MacroGenics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGNX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology, Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: MGC026's head-and-neck cohort cleared its pre-specified Stage 1 threshold on 2026-07-23 and the interim Phase 1 data lands as ESMO poster 1020P on 2026-10-23; the name walks in with $327M pro forma cash (2026-06-30) built from the Bora sale, a Gilead option payment and a Sanofi milestone rather than equity issuance, and runway guided through 2028. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.90 (unwinds the three-month advance and returns price to the pre-2026-07-23 range); secondarily, ESMO poster 1020P on 2026-10-23 passing with SCCHN data that does not extend beyond the Stage 1 bar, or an equity raise priced into strength. --- ### MNKD — MannKind Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MNKD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Legacy inhaled-insulin story pivoting: Q2 2026 marketed products grew 111% YoY and now exceed the Tyvaso DPI royalty line, which grew just 4%. INFLO-1 Phase 1b IPF data, guided to Q3 2026, is the next dated event. The narrative is maturing — a $7.97 consensus target is already published against the 2026-09-04 close of $4.06. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.55 surrenders the three-month advance and returns the shares to the pre-catalyst level; secondary conditions are 2026-09-30 passing with no INFLO-1 Phase 1b readout and no new guided date, or Q3 Tyvaso DPI royalties printing below the $32.4M Q2 figure. --- ### MOD — Modine Manufacturing Co URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: De-rated datacenter-cooling compounder: Data Centers sales $348.6M (+90% YoY) and the $650M–$680M FY27 EBITDA guide were affirmed 2026-07-29, while the 2026-09-03 close of $186.63 sits 39.2% under the $306.89 high with RSI(14) at 34.1. The 2026-09-10 Gentherm vote is the only company-dated event before the ~2026-11-03 (est.) print, and its charter-amendment proposal needs a majority of all 30,739,019 outstanding shares, not just votes cast. Kill line: A weekly close below $153 puts the drawdown past 50% from the $306.89 high and dates the failed-breakout leg as extending rather than basing. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Gentherm vote passing with no reclaim of the $195–$210 zone lost 2026-08-14, or a cut to the $650M–$680M FY27 adjusted EBITDA guide. --- ### MTW — The Manitowoc Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: Manitowoc's crane-order recovery supports its re-rating if Q3 backlog holds at least $1,050.1 million and raised 2026 profit guidance survives. A weekly close below $18 invalidates the price thesis; the Q3 reporting date remains unconfirmed. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 invalidates the crane-order re-rating; a secondary break is Q3 backlog below the $1,050.1 million Q2 mark or a reduction in the $150–170 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance issued on 2026-08-06. --- ### NAVN — Navan, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NAVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software, Travel & leisure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Q2 FY2027 prints 2026-09-09 with the first positive non-GAAP operating-income guide ($13.5–14.5M) on the line. Four target raises in 21 days — BofA $26→$34 on 09-02, Morgan Stanley $33 on 09-04 — landed while the shares fell from the $30.58 high to $27.78 on 09-04 and lost the $28.22 August shelf, leaving a maturing narrative whose next bid is decided by one dated print. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 surrenders the IPO-price reclaim and returns the name to the July digestion range under unrestricted pre-IPO supply. Secondarily, a 2026-09-09 Q2 print at or under the $219M revenue guide floor, or non-GAAP operating income under $13.5M, with FY2027 left at $907–913M rather than raised. --- ### NIQ — NIQ Global Intelligence plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NIQ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Post-take-private deleveraging re-rate still running after the 2026-08-10 beat-and-raise, now with an OpenAI Deployment Company collaboration (2026-08-25) and targets chasing price — Needham $21 on 08-20, Baird $23 on 08-28. But the 2026-08-28 close of $19.20 sits 0.2% under the 52-week high with RSI(14) 90.7 and a +115.5% three-month move, and no company-dated financial catalyst lands before the Q3 print around 2026-11-12. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.00 unwinds the bulk of the post-2026-08-10 advance and returns price into the $15–$17 target cluster set on 2026-08-11; secondarily, the early-September Optiq Chat / Optiq Bridge launches passing with no dollar-denominated disclosure, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-12) at or below the low end of the $1,105–1,108M / $0.22–0.24 guide. --- ### NSP — Insperity, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-17 Thesis: Margin-repair re-rating in a legacy PEO has stalled just under its high: the 2026-09-04 close of $51.96 sits 2.7% below the $53.40 adjusted 52-week high, and the +162,000 August payroll beat did not extend it because professional and business services added only 10,000 of that. No company binary until the Q3 print, which the last two years' calendars put between late October and early November, leaving a maturing narrative carried by monthly labour data. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 loses the rising 50-day average tallied at $48.11 on 2026-08-28 and returns price to the pre-Q2 range; a Q3 average-paid-WSEE print under the 305,500 guide floor, or an FY adjusted-EBITDA guide cut below the $185M floor set 2026-07-29, would confirm the margin repair did not hold. --- ### NVCT — Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVCT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Nuvectis re-rated on the 2026-06-22 Haisco ex-China in-license and the 2026-07-23 China approval of oral Factor B inhibitor ciprocopan; Nothing binary lands inside 30 days — only conference slots on 09-11 and 09-14, against RSI 72.3 and a 160% three-month advance. Kill line: A weekly close below $20.00 — the 2026-06-29 offering price at which 5.75M shares were placed — unwinds the post-license shelf; secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announced NXP900 ALK+ trial initiation and Q4 2026 ending with neither US IND filed. --- ### OABI — OmniAb, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OABI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Milestone-flywheel re-rating extended past the 2026-08-22 note: a +8.78% session on 2026-08-24 made a new 52-week closing high, then price eased to $4.47 on 08-28 with RSI(14) cooling from 97.6 to 77.3. The 2026-08-26 release put two dated September appearances (Nasdaq/LD Micro 09-09, H.C. Wainwright 09-15) onto an empty calendar, but the next fundamental test remains the ~November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on partner news flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.82 fills the 2026-08-17 Lilly-deal session and leaves only the $3.38–$3.43 August shelf beneath; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 conference dates passing with no new partner agreement and no move back above $4.81. --- ### OMER — Omeros Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OMER/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: Launch-ramp re-rating has stopped extending and started digesting: the 2026-09-02 close of $18.86 sits 2.4% under the $19.32 52-week high with RSI(14) back to 63.2 from 92.0 on 2026-08-21, and no Omeros disclosure is dated after the 2026-08-12 print. The 2026-10-01 NTAP start is the only dated input before the Q3 report, leaving a maturing narrative that has to be re-fed by sequential sales. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.00 hands back the entire post-print advance and puts the launch-ramp re-rating in question ($13.00 fully retraces the 2026-08-13 earnings gap). Secondarily, Q3 2026 net product sales at or below $28.5M while ordering accounts grow past 73, or an equity offering into the advance. --- ### ORKA — Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORKA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Supply overhang cleared: the 2026-07-01 Fairmount $300M block at $84.43 was absorbed and price closed $92.70 on 07-17 (+11.6%), 5% off the 52-week high, with 19.85% short interest still rising. Long-acting I&I re-rated by the $10.9B AbbVie-Apogee comp; H2-26 EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data is the undated next binary. Kill line: A daily close below $82 breaks the July absorption shelf where the $84.43 Fairmount block was digested, reclassifying that print as distribution; a weekly close below $72.50 (May follow-on price) reopens the supply thesis. Secondary: EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data slipping from H2-2026 into 2027. --- ### PBF — PBF ENERGY INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Record diesel cracks ($108.02 intraday, 2026-09-01) met a stalled tape: the adjusted series closed 2026-09-04 at $74.34, 1.5% under its $75.48 high with RSI 48.7, while the >10% holder resumed selling on 2026-09-02 at $76.94–$77.09. A saturated super-margin narrative with no company event before a Q3 print due around late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 gives back the August advance and puts price under the mid-August Form 4 distribution range; a signed Hormuz transit arrangement, or consecutive distillate builds across the September EIA weeklies with the diesel crack off record levels, is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### PCTY — Paylocity Holding Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCTY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Post-print re-rating leg: the 2026-08-04 Q4 FY26 beat ($1.84 adj. EPS vs $1.61 est.) triggered five price-target raises in 48 hours and a $150.42 close on 2026-08-07, +35.5% over three months. The buy is multiple recovery in mid-cap HCM software, paid for against an FY27 guide that steps recurring growth down from 12.2% to ~8%. Kill line: A weekly close below $140 (fills the 2026-08-04 post-print gap and returns PCTY to its pre-earnings range); secondarily, any cut to the $1.777B FY27 recurring & other revenue floor at the Q1 FY27 print in late October. --- ### PGNY — Progyny, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGNY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The August de-rate stopped without a new bid: the 2026-09-04 close of $25.94 is 1.1% above the 2026-08-21 close of $25.65, while RSI(14) reset from 18.1 to 55.9. The narrative leg has shifted to Progyny Select — Citizens' 2026-09-02 note frames a 50M-life channel with no material 2027 revenue — and the 2026-09-08 Wells Fargo conference is the only dated event before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 forfeits the June pre-breakout shelf and returns control to the pre-re-rate May range. Secondary: Q3 revenue at or under the $335M low end of the 2026-08-06 guide, or the 2026-09-08 fireside passing with no incremental 2027-lives or Select disclosure. --- ### PLPC — Preformed Line Products Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLPC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: The July rollover read was voided by the 2026-07-29 Q2 print: sales $212.7M vs $193M consensus, EPS $4.49 vs $2.41, and a ~30% one-session repricing to a new all-time closing high of $480.77 (2026-08-11). Grid/AI-power second-order narrative is accelerating again on reported numbers — with RSI 73.3, the buyback finished, and the next scheduled binary ~10 weeks out. Kill line: A weekly close below $415 surrenders the June 2026 all-time high at $414.35 that the post-print gap converted to support, reopening the untraded void down to the $326–$335 pre-print shelf; secondary break is a Q3 2026 print (~2026-10-28 est.) with sales under the $212.7M Q2 bar or gross margin back toward Q1's 31.3%. --- ### PLSE — Pulse Biosciences, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLSE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-10-05 Thesis: Timeline-compression leg still printing highs on thinning inputs: the 2026-09-02 close of $52.68 is a fresh 52-week high, but RSI(14) fell to 73.2 from 82.5 at the 2026-08-21 high and no company disclosure has landed since the 2026-08-06 Q2 release. NANOPULSE-AF enrollment completion, guided early October, is the next company-dated proof, against a four-firm compiled mean target of $45.25. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 puts price back inside the pre-initiation range and marks the 2026-08-17 breakout through the $44.92 prior 52-week high as a failed extension. Secondary: no NANOPULSE-AF enrollment-completion announcement by 2026-10-31. --- ### PMTS — CPI Card Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PMTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Levered card manufacturer re-rating on cash generation: Q2 revenue $149.2M (+15%) with net leverage cut to 2.7x from 3.6x and FY free-cash-flow guidance lifted to $45–50M on 2026-08-06. Adjusted EBITDA grew just 7% against that 15% top line, so margin conversion is the contested variable, and no company-dated event lands before the Q3 print in early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 ends the deleveraging re-rating leg, measured against the 2026-08-28 close of $28.83 and the $30.50 52-week high; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03) that again pairs double-digit revenue growth with low-to-mid single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and no improvement on 2.7x net leverage. --- ### PRGO — PERRIGO COMPANY PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRGO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Store-brand self-care turnaround re-rating off the 2026-08-05 beat — adjusted EPS $0.50 and a reaffirmed core adjusted-EPS guide of $2.25–$2.55 against a $2.07B market cap and $3.3B of debt, with infant-formula and oral-care strategic reviews still open. The 2026-09-10 Barclays consumer conference is the only dated company appearance before the ~November Q3 print, and RSI(14) at 75.7 says the easy part of the move is already behind it. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.00 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and ends the re-rating leg; a secondary break is the 2026-09-10 Barclays appearance passing with no update on the infant-formula or oral-care reviews and no upward revision to the $2.25–$2.55 core EPS guide. --- ### PSX — Phillips 66 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Hormuz-driven refining-margin blowout is the leg: Q2 2026 realized refining margin $24.08/bbl vs $10.11 in Q1, adjusted EPS $9.41 vs $7.44 consensus, plus a $10B buyback expansion (2026-08-05). The narrative is maturing — well known since that print, with price targets chasing a 39.8% three-month move and no company-dated catalyst until the ~late-October Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $239 (back beneath the 2026-08-06 Wells Fargo Overweight target the August advance cleared, with no base identified between there and the $256.09 high); secondarily, a Q3 print showing realized refining margin back toward the Q1 2026 level of $10.11/bbl. --- ### PUBM — PubMatic, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PUBM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Growth-inflection re-rating in an independent SSP re-labelled as an AI story is holding but no longer feeding on new headlines. The 2026-08-07 gap to $17.78 has survived fifteen sessions to the 2026-08-28 close of $16.82, two August investor conferences passed without a public datapoint, and the 2026-09-09 Wolfe TMT appearance is the only dated forum before the early-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.20 hands back the majority of the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and points price at the $13.43 pre-print shelf; secondarily, Q3 revenue printing beneath the guided $75M floor in early November would confirm the acceleration rested on an easier comparison. --- ### PYPL — PayPal Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PYPL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The takeover leg is dead — Advent/Stripe walked on 2026-08-28 and the stock broke 12.71% to $53.66 — leaving a standalone legacy-payments turnaround on the raised FY26 guide (~$5.38 adj EPS, ~$15.6B transaction-margin dollars). The tape stabilised at $54.67 on 2026-09-02 with RSI(14) 33.4, but the sell side split on 2026-08-31 (Truist to $53, RBC to $70) and nothing company-dated resolves before the 2026-10-27 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 fills the 2026-07-15 bid gap back through the pre-approach closes of $47.37 and $47.65 and values the business under where it stood before the FY26 guide was raised; secondary confirmation is a Q3 FY26 print on 2026-10-27 that trims the ~$15.6B transaction-margin-dollar guide. --- ### QNST — QuinStreet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QNST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise stands unrevised while the tape has faded since mid-August: the 2026-09-04 close was $18.73, 14.9% under the $22.02 high, with all six published targets ($21–$24) sitting above it. Northland's 2026-09-01 maintain at $21 is the only sell-side action in five weeks, leaving a maturing carrier ad-spend story with no company-dated number until the fiscal Q1 print in early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 loses the pre-print July high near $17.2 and returns price inside the 2026-08-07 gap, ending the post-print leg. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-22 conference dates passing with the six-analyst average still $22.40 and no target above $24. --- ### RCMT — RCM Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCMT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Thesis: RCM Technologies’ energy-services re-rating requires continued Engineering growth and stable margins. Q3 revenue above the segment’s $39.5 million Q2 level and consolidated gross margin of at least 25.7% would confirm the case, provided a weekly close below $34.00 has not occurred first. Kill line: A weekly close below $34.00 breaks the earnings-move structure; independently, Q3 Engineering revenue at or below $39.5 million or consolidated gross margin below 25.7% invalidates the operating case. --- ### RVTY — Revvity, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RVTY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Post-2026-08-04 print, RVTY re-rated on the wet-lab-under-AI story — management's strongest instrument backlog in 3–4 years — plus Diagnostics +11% organic and a signed exit from China immunodiagnostics. KeyBanc took its target to $165 on 09-04 while RBC initiated at $135 on 09-01, and the next number-bearing event is the late-October Q3 print, leaving the shares at a 52-week high with only conference appearances in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $116 (loses the 50-day average at $116.40 and the entire post-2026-08-04 advance), or a Q3 print in late October that trims FY26 organic growth back toward 3–4% with Life Sciences still contracting. --- ### SBET — SharpLink, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SBET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: SharpLink's Ether treasury discount is the recovery thesis: The Block reported a 0.84-times net asset value multiple on 2026-09-07. The case plays out if a comparable valuation reaches net asset value before a weekly close below $7.50 invalidates it. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 invalidates the discount-closure recovery thesis; this retains the published research threshold beneath the market's $7.91 weekly close on 2026-08-21 and $8.20 weekly close on 2026-08-28. --- ### SGMT — Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SGMT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: IND clearance (2026-08-13) has converted into a schedule: sites identified, CRO engaged, AURORA screening from October 2026, first patient shortly after (2026-08-25). Price closed at the 52-week high of $10.99 on 2026-09-02 with RSI(14) 71.2, down from 82.8 on 2026-08-21 — an accelerating story whose only dated events inside 30 days are investor conferences on 09-09 and 09-14, not data. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 gives back the 2026-08-13 IND-clearance gap and returns the stock inside the pre-clearance band; a secondary break is October 2026 passing with no AURORA screening start, or a revised enrolment timeline disclosed at the Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.). --- ### SLDB — Solid Biosciences Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SLDB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Post-Sarepta DMD vacuum trade still in its waiting phase, with the sell-side moving before the company does: no release since the 2026-08-06 Q2 print, but Truist carried Buy/$20 on 2026-08-21 and Cantor raised to $26 on 2026-08-27. The 2026-08-28 close of $9.77 sits 12.4% under the $11.15 52-week high with RSI(14) 64.8 and no company-dated catalyst before the late-Q4 FDA meeting — a maturing narrative re-rated by coverage rather than by disclosure. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 forfeits the June shelf that absorbed the July drawdown; secondary break if the late-Q4-2026 FDA meeting passes without an accelerated-approval path, or a priced follow-on under the 2026-08-06 $200M prospectus lands before any data event. --- ### SNDK — Sandisk Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Contracted-revenue re-rating (~$94B of NBM agreements, 2026-08-13) is intact on fundamentals, but the price leg has stalled: the 2026-08-28 close of $1,484.98 sits below the 2026-08-14 close of $1,641.11, and the newest headlines are sector capex (Kioxia/Sandisk $31B Japan plan, 2026-08-27) rather than company re-rating events, leaving a maturing narrative whose next hard date is Micron's 2026-09-30 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $1400 gives back the 2026-08-13/14 Investor Day repricing and returns the name to its pre-event range; reinforced if Micron's 2026-09-30 print guides NAND pricing lower, or if the FY2026 10-K contract terms show the ~$94B NBM minimums are volume-only with pricing renegotiable. --- ### SPCX — SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPCX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Two target actions (Oppenheimer to $280 from $250, Bernstein SocGen reiterating $248) and a Musk compute headline all landed 2026-09-02, and the stock still closed $140.71, leaving the 2026-08-12 high close of $146.15 untaken for fifteen sessions. September now carries roughly 700M shares of lock-up supply plus a reported 2026-09-30 Google capacity deadline set against data-centre reliability problems. Kill line: A weekly close below $133 takes out the $134.00 low close of 2026-08-20 and reduces the defence of the $135 IPO price since 2026-08-21 to an excursion. Secondary: the ~2026-09-09 and ~2026-09-24 tranches, the 2026-09-15 Flight 14 window and the 2026-09-30 Google capacity date all passing with no close above $146.15. --- ### SPT — Sprout Social, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Margin-inflection re-rate now trading through its own sell-side band: the 2026-08-28 close of $11.49 sits above the $10.44 compiled consensus target and above four of the five targets raised after the 2026-08-06 print. The last leg came from the 2026-08-19 Trellis general-availability release and a 2026-08-28 enterprise-software group rally rather than a revenue datapoint, and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~early-November Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 hands back the entire advance since the 2026-08-19 Trellis release and returns the shares to the 2026-08-17 range of $9.53-9.96; a Q3 revenue print at or under the $123.3M guide floor, or a cut to the FY2026 range of $493.0-495.6M at the early-November report, would confirm the break fundamentally. --- ### SPXC — SPX Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPXC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Q2 beat-and-raise on 2026-07-30 was the strongest print of the cycle — HVAC backlog $919M (+59% organic), 2026 data-center revenue set at $430M, capacity target lifted to $1.1B from $750M — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $217.32 sits 11.8% under the 52-week high with RSI 49. Fundamentals accelerating, price paying less for each upgrade; no company catalyst until late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $199 unwinds the entire 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise reaction (that session's $199.30 regular-session close was the pre-guidance mark); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing HVAC backlog under $919M or trimming the $430M 2026 data-center revenue figure. --- ### SRPT — Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SRPT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-crisis rare-disease cash engine re-rating: the 2026-08-05 Q2 print showed $945.0M cash (up $197M in the quarter), a stable $230.6M PMO franchise and operating profitability, and the shares have run 44.7% in three months to within 8.0% of the $24.45 52-week high. The next company proof point — DM1/FSHD siRNA cohort data — is guided only to "2H 2026", leaving a maturing narrative with no confirmed catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $19 gives back the advance that followed the 2026-08-05 print and ends the recovery-leg read; secondary, the 2H-2026 DM1/FSHD siRNA cohort data passing 2026-12-31 with no readout, or Q3 ELEVIDYS revenue landing materially under the $98.1M Q2 figure with a further cut to the $1.2–1.3B guide. --- ### STLN — Starling Oncology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STLN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services, Oncology & immunology, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Value-based oncology pivot repriced on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print: revenue $161.3M (+34.6% YoY), gross profit +55.2%, first positive adjusted EBITDA (+$229K), FY26 guide raised to $650–670M. The capitated/delegated-risk ramp is the leg, but targets were reset to $8.40–$11 within a day and no company-dated catalyst lands before the ~November Q3 report, leaving a maturing narrative digesting an August gap. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.25 breaks the post-Q2 consolidation shelf and puts the August revaluation back in play; secondarily, a cut to the FY2026 revenue guide of $650–670M or to the $2–7M adjusted EBITDA range at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.), or a medical loss ratio above the guided 80–90% band. --- ### TARS — Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TARS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ eye-care expansion depends on XDEMVY sustaining growth after the Alkeus acquisition. The case requires next-quarter sales above Q2 2026’s $173.9 million and retention or an increase of both boundaries of the $685–705 million annual outlook before a weekly close below $78. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 invalidates the price thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; separately, next-quarter XDEMVY sales at or below $173.9 million or a reduction in either boundary of the $685–705 million annual guidance breaks the commercial premise. --- ### TEAM — Atlassian Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEAM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The "agentic AI kills seat-based software" de-rating just reversed: Q4 FY26 (2026-08-06) put cloud +31% and $6,606M subscription ARR behind the Rovo/MCP agent story, and the stock gapped 30%+ on 2026-08-07 to close $149.07. The counterweight sits in the same release — FY27 revenue growth guided ~13% with Data Center -17% — and no company catalyst lands before the ~2026-10-29 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 returns more than half the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and voids the post-print re-rating; secondarily, a Q1 FY27 print (est. 2026-10-29) with cloud growth under the guided ~28.5% would confirm the break fundamentally. --- ### TNET — Trinet Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Post-print durability leg: after the 2026-07-30 Q2 beat (ICR 86% vs 90%, adj EPS $1.55 vs $0.93) and FY guide raise, TNET closed 2026-08-28 at $70.27, 2.0% under its $71.67 high. UBS lifted its target to $71 on 2026-08-24 but the seven-analyst consensus of $66.20 still sits under the tape, and three insiders sold into $68–70 during August. Nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 loses the August $68–$71.67 shelf and returns price inside the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise gap; secondarily, a Q3 insurance cost ratio at or above the 89.5% top of the raised FY band, or FY revenue guided beneath the affirmed $4.75B floor, breaks the margin-durability leg regardless of price. --- ### TSEM — Tower Semiconductor Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSEM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels photonics foundry where the demand chain keeps beating and the equity has only just begun to follow: the line closed $206.81 on 2026-09-02, reclaiming the $200 shelf, hours before Broadcom guided Q4 AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7B and framed fiscal-2027 AI revenue at approximately $115B. The demand-layer narrative is accelerating while equity confirmation is one session old, with no company-dated number before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $195, back beneath the 2026-09-01 close of $199.06 that the 2026-09-02 close of $206.81 reclaimed, marks the $200 shelf failing rather than repairing. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Benchmark-StoneX appearance passing with no reiteration of the $3.6B revenue / $1.2B net-profit 2028 model published 2026-07-14. --- ### TWLO — Twilio Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Legacy CPaaS repricing as voice/agentic-AI engagement infrastructure; sell-side re-clustered higher into the print — Cowen $245, Mizuho $240, Citizens $250 (2026-07-17/20) — but the 2026-07-30 Q2 report is now the binary deciding whether the re-rating re-accelerates or saturates. Kill line: A weekly close below $197 fills the 2026-06-01 gap and negates the re-rating; secondarily, a 2026-07-30 Q2 print with reported revenue growth below 14% or organic growth below 9.5%, or a soft Q3 guide, breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### TWST — Twist Bioscience Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TWST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Synthetic-DNA-as-AI-input narrative went vertical: the failed $70 breakout reclaimed and ran to a $105.47 high, +200%+ YTD with 85% of it since the 2026-05-21 analyst day. Targets now $102-$120 but price sits above the $85.50 consensus and Evercore stepped aside on valuation. The 2026-08-03 Q3 print is the binary that decides whether AI orders show up in the total revenue line. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 — the old all-time-high ceiling that became support on the late-June breakout — voids the AI-order re-rating leg. Secondary: the 2026-08-03 Q3 FY26 print showing total revenue growth still stuck near +19% with no inflection from AI accounts. --- ### U — Unity Software Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/U/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Post-print re-rating has cooled: the 2026-08-28 close of $43.31 sits below the entire $45–55 target cluster set on 2026-08-07, with RSI(14) back to 51.0 from 91.5 on 2026-08-14. The second leg needs the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print to deliver Grow of $380–385M and the first GAAP-profitable quarter, and nothing company-dated falls before it — a maturing narrative holding on flow alone for ten weeks. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 unwinds the entire 2026-08-06 re-rating and returns price to the June–July range. Secondary: Q3 Strategic Grow landing under the $380M guide floor at the ~2026-11-05 print, or a downgrade/target cut out of the $45–55 analyst cluster. --- ### VLO — Valero Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VLO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-22 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC have caught up, the name is extended, and the Q2 print lands now — the setup clears on a pullback, not a chase at peak coverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $280 (loses the July geopolitical-breakout shelf and the rising 20-week EMA), or the 3-2-1 crack spread mean-reverting back under ~$45 from its record ~$70 as offline refining capacity returns online. --- ### VST — Vistra Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VST/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: The 2026-09-02 close of $143.46 clears the six-session $135.66–$139.81 band on the same day a Form 4 disclosed the CEO buying 6,665 shares for $903,069 at $135.25–$135.99. FERC acceptance of PJM's backstop framework (ER26-3380-000) by 2026-09-29 gates the 09-30 bid window and is the only regulatory binary before the ~11-06 Q3 print, inside a saturated AI-power narrative whose coverage widened on 08-24 without a wider bid behind it. Kill line: A weekly close below $135.66 puts price back under the entire 08-24 to 09-01 compression band and negates the 09-02 expansion, leaving only the $132.66 May low and 52-week floor marked beneath it. Secondarily, FERC not accepting ER26-3380-000 by 2026-09-29 slips the 09-30 bid window and empties the calendar to the ~11-06 Q3 print. --- ### VSTM — Verastem, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSTM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rate extended rather than stalled: $6.89 on 2026-08-21 to $8.02 on 2026-09-02, RSI(14) 71.4, with no new company disclosure located in that window beyond a 2026-09-02 conference notice. The 2026-08-28 Oberland closing date has passed; the October VS-7375 response-rate update remains the binary, and three September investor conferences are the only dated items inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.70 unwinds the post-Q2 shelf that held from the 2026-08-07 close of $6.74 through 2026-08-21 at $6.89; October passing with no VS-7375 response-rate disclosure, or a fourth sell-side target cut below $10, would compound the break. --- ### XNCR — Xencor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XNCR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Two overhangs closed in three weeks: the $105M Alexion settlement (2026-07-29) ended the Ultomiris dispute and pushed runway through 2028, and Q2 revenue of $51.2M vs $18.9M consensus (2026-08-05) drew three price-target raises on 08-06. Price closed 2026-08-14 at $23.34, its 52-week high, RSI 69.2. The XmAb819 ESMO oral (Oct 23–27) remains the binary and nothing is dated before it. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 retraces the entire post-settlement, post-Q2 advance back into the pre-2026-07-17 range; separately, an XmAb819 ESMO oral on 2026-10-23 to 10-27 that does not support the stated 2027 pivotal start breaks the pipeline leg independently of the chart. --- ### ZLAB — Zai Lab Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZLAB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Re-rating from China in-licensing platform to global originator on zocilurtatug pelitecan, the internal DLL3 ADC: the 2026-08-03 FDA orphan-drug grant in neuroendocrine carcinomas and Citi's 2026-08-07 raise to $45 extended the leg, and the 2026-10-23 to 10-27 ESMO first-line SCLC dataset is the next resolution point — on a tape 52.6% higher over three months but still 24.3% under the $34.44 52-week high. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 surrenders most of the three-month advance off the 2026-08-28 close of $26.08 and leaves the shares ~36% under the $34.44 52-week high; secondarily, ESMO ending 2026-10-27 with no first-line ES-SCLC registrational Phase 3 committed removes the leg's driver. --- ### AA — Alcoa Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The policy-proxy leg now carries an opposing vector: the September US Midwest premium — the benchmark roughly 1.35Mt of Alcoa shipments price against — fell 8.2% to 95 cents a pound on 2026-08-20 on signals Washington will cut Canadian duties, which is why the shares closed $51.05 on 2026-09-03 while LME aluminum firmed to $3,319.50/t. The narrative is saturated: two EVPs sold in August and no analyst has moved a target since 2026-07-22. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 loses the August reclaim off the 2026-08-14 close of $49.98 and reopens the July range; secondary conditions: the September Midwest premium extending under 95 cents a pound on a US-Canada deal cutting the 50% aluminum rate, or 2026-09-08 and the 2026-09-10 Jefferies webcast both passing with no quantified tariff or onshoring economics. --- ### AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAOI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The 2026-09-02 close of $103.13 leaves the shares below both the $110.21 shelf lost 2026-08-28 and the $104.50 low taken out 2026-09-01, with nothing company-dated before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Against that void sit a 115%–144% Q3 revenue guide, $600,000,000 of ATM capacity authorized 2026-08-21 and still undrawn on EDGAR, and two Houston production leases signed 2026-08-31 carrying a $146.57M purchase option. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 extends the sequence of broken levels — $110.21 on 2026-08-28, $104.50 on 2026-09-01 — with no company-dated event before ~2026-11-05 to arrest it. Secondary: a 424B5 or 8-K disclosing takedowns under the 2026-08-21 $600,000,000 ATM, or the ~2026-09-09 FCC tentative agenda arriving with no transceiver item. --- ### AAPL — Apple Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms, Managed care & health services, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: July's rotation-crown has slipped — Polymarket now gives Apple 20% odds of ending 2026 as the largest company (7/24) and semis are breaking out again (NVDA 7/23). The live narrative is the 'anti-CapEx AI trade' as Alphabet turns FCF-negative (7/24), but fiscal Q3 on 2026-07-30 is a binary now ~3 sessions out — not a fresh-entry window. Kill line: A weekly close below $317 gives back the reclaimed WWDC high and turns the July mega-cap leg into a failed breakout; secondary: a rotation back into AI semiconductors that removes the blue-chip bid, or a fiscal Q3 miss on iPhone units or gross margin near 2026-07-30. --- ### AEHR — Aehr Test Systems URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Wafer-level burn-in toll on AI silicon: fiscal 2027 guided $130.0–150.0M against $50.0M in fiscal 2026, unamended on the wire as of 2026-09-03. The unwind paused — $80.24 on 2026-09-02 against $76.59 the prior session, RSI(14) 27.3 from 22.9, still 44.9% under the 52-week high — leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the 2026-09-10 Lake Street venue and an October print vendor calendars date differently. Kill line: A weekly close below $70.00 carries the unwind through the July range and the 2026-07-28 shelf, the last dated support above the 200-day average of $61.00 read 2026-08-28. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Lake Street venue passing with no second distinct AI-ASIC customer named and Lake Street's $110 target unrevised. --- ### AEIS — Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Datacenter-power picks-and-shovels re-rating is now fully mainstream — Morgan Stanley initiated Overweight $421 (07-22) atop Wells $465 and Susquehanna $535 — yet the stock fell 12.65% on 07-02 and is sitting on its 200-day while analyst targets keep climbing. Sell-side saturation against a broken tape; the confirmed 2026-08-03 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $286 loses the 200-day MA and confirms the uptrend is broken, turning the re-rating into a value trap; a Q2 miss or Data Center segment guide-down at the 2026-08-03 print is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AESI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Frac-sand legacy pivoting to behind-the-meter gas power for AI data centers, but the story is DORMANT and the structure broken: shares fell from $16.73 (6/29) to an $11.96 close (7/24, -8.5%), losing the ~$15 base and $13 shelf on softening sand demand, no new PPA since 4/1, and a tape that keeps cutting (Barclays UW $14, Citi $21). No velocity until a fresh order or reclaim; the 2026-08-03 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 forfeits the 7/24 low ($11.94) and confirms the failed power-pivot breakout is extending toward the high-single-digit / $7.64 52-week-low zone; secondary — the 2026-08-03 Q2 print guiding adj-EBITDA below ~$48M, or still no new power PPA/genset conversion by that print. --- ### AGL — agilon health, inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Value-based-care turnaround is filed, not promised: Q2 (2026-08-05) medical margin $197M vs -$53M a year earlier, FY26 adjusted EBITDA guided $75–$95M. The re-rating leg has stalled anyway — the 2026-09-04 close of $88.50 sits 31.8% under the $129.84 high, and the 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16 conference window is the only company-dated forum before a Q3 print that still has no announced date. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 gives up the range held since the August drawdown and turns the slide from $129.84 into a trend; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16 conference window passing with no 2027 member or ACO REACH replacement disclosure, or a Q3 report that cuts the FY26 $465M medical-margin floor. --- ### AMPL — Amplitude, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMPL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The post-print re-rate stalled: AMPL closed $13.02 on 2026-09-04 against the 2026-08-28 52-week high of $14.30, losing the $13.30 breakout shelf and slipping back under the $13.77 mean target, with no dated analyst action since Needham's $18 on 2026-08-27. The 09-09 and 09-15 fireside chats are the only venues before Q3 (~2026-11-04, est.) where 103% net retention can move, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-reported number in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.60 forfeits the pre-print shelf the entire advance originated from; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 Citi TMT and 2026-09-15 Piper appearances passing with no update to the 103% net-retention trajectory, no dated target above Needham's $18, and $13.30 unreclaimed into the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print. --- ### AMR — Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ coal-supply-shock thesis requires stronger third-quarter realized pricing before August support breaks. Realization above the second quarter’s $118.71 per short ton would confirm transmission; a weekly close below $210 invalidates the price-supported case. Kill line: A weekly close below $210 breaks the August support associated with the 2026-08-24 close of $209.93; third-quarter Met-segment net realization at or below $118.71 per short ton separately fails the pricing-transmission thesis. --- ### AMSC — American Superconductor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40 shelf near the early-July ~$35 area with the theme matured to a value-trap shape — the setup does not clear until it bases into the ~Aug 5 Q1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 confirms the break of the ~$34.50 early-July shelf and opens the declining 200-DMA / $25.28 52-week-low path; further confirmed if the ~Aug 5 Q1 print shows 12-month backlog contracting from ~$280M or the grid-power theme flips to saturated. --- ### AMZN — Amazon.com, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMZN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: AWS reacceleration is a printed fact — +37% YoY to $42.2B on 2026-07-30 — but the tape has handed the whole move back: record close $284.02 on 2026-08-03, $254.98 on 2026-09-02, RSI(14) 39.9. The new variable is legal rather than operational: the FTC and 22 states sued over ad-auction pricing on 2026-08-31, and no company-dated catalyst exists before the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $245 unwinds what remains of the 2026-07-31 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. 2026-10-29) with AWS growth under 30% YoY alongside another increase to the ~$220B capex guide. --- ### APLD — Applied Digital Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Thesis: Contracted-to-energized conversion story (~1,410 MW booked, ~175 MW energized) with no own-name disclosure since 2026-07-27; the $25.56 April base broke on the 2026-08-28 weekly close of $25.34 and the 2026-09-02 close of $24.91 sits beneath it with RSI(14) at 29.8. The first hard read on the ~$1B annualized NOI claim is the Q1 FY27 print, carried for 2026-10-08 by stockanalysis.com — outside the window, leaving a broken structure with no company-dated catalyst inside it. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 extends the failure of the $25.56 April base toward the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an ATM reactivation or registered common offering disclosed in an 8-K, or a Q1 FY27 print (carried for 2026-10-08 by stockanalysis.com) with the recurring rental line no better than the $50.6M of Q4 FY26. --- ### ASML — ASML Holding N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASML/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: ASML lost the July–August floor on the 2026-09-01 close of $1,665.14, and the 2026-09-02 close of $1,682.30 left the $1,686.01 shelf unreclaimed. RSI(14) reads 23.8, no broker revision has printed since the 2026-08-11 BofA reiterate at $2,866, and nothing company-dated arrives before the 2026-10-14 Q3 print; TSMC's ~09-10 August revenue is the only hard demand read in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $1665 confirms the July–August range break on a settled week rather than a single-session undercut. Secondary condition: TSMC's ~2026-09-10 August revenue arriving with no weekly close back above $1,805 by the 2026-09-11 settlement. --- ### ASTS — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: The 2026-09-02 close of $62.40 reclaimed the $56 shelf breached one session earlier, driven by a Berenberg Buy initiation at $92 and a director's 2026-08-31 open-market purchase of 10,822 shares — neither a company disclosure. Spectrum remains the only dated leg: Grain 800 MHz preliminary offers were due the first week of September, FCC completion is 2026-11-05, and BlueBirds 14/15/16 still carry no launch release. Kill line: A weekly close below $55.74 removes the early-August low and the $56 shelf reclaimed on 2026-09-02; secondary: the Grain 800 MHz process reaching its 2026-11-05 FCC completion date with AST not named, or no dated BlueBird 14/15/16 launch release by 2026-10-31. --- ### AU — AngloGold Ashanti plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: The 2026-09-04 payroll beat resolved against the metal: gold fell to $4,420/oz, the miner group fell 1.9%, and AU closed $109.07 versus the 2026-08-21 high of $123.39. Gold-margin leverage still works against a $2,039/oz Q2 cost line, but with September hike odds at 60.2% and the frozen 8-analyst average of $113.13 now above the price, the story is saturated going into the 2026-09-11 CPI and the 2026-09-16 dot plot. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 erases the three sessions that built the August leg (+9.46% 2026-08-07, +5.05% 2026-08-20, +5.57% 2026-08-21) and the $123.39 high; secondary condition, spot gold closing a week under $4,200/oz after the $4,420/oz quote of 2026-09-04. --- ### AUGO — Aura Minerals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Gold/copper producer basing $53–$76 under a broken ~$72 shelf after a ~45% fall from the $110 high. Q2 output slipped 8% QoQ — first sequential drop after a record Q1 — as gold cools to the low-$4,000s and sell-side keeps trimming (JPM to $91 on 2026-07-16, BofA to $94). A $200M buyback floors ~7x forward, but there is no reclaim yet: basing watch, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 loses the mid-June capitulation low, resumes the downtrend and undercuts the buyback floor; paired with gold losing $4,000/oz it tilts the gold-miner theme toward dead. Structure only repairs on a weekly close back above ~$72 on rising volume. --- ### AVGO — Broadcom Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Broadcom beat and raised on 2026-09-02 — Q3 revenue $29.591B vs $29.362B consensus, AI semis $16.7B (+221%), FY26 AI lifted to $58B, plus a stated ~$115B FY27 / ~$230B FY28 AI roadmap — but Q4 revenue guided $34.8B against $35.03B consensus, Q4 gross margin to ~73% from 78%, and the shares fell about 5% after hours from a $367.24 close with RSI(14) at 24.1. Kill line: A weekly close below $340 completes the failed $370 shelf and takes out the 2026-08-26 close of $355.59. Secondary: Q4 AI semiconductor revenue landing under the guided $21.7B at the December print, or the ~$115B FY27 line-of-sight figure not being reaffirmed. --- ### AXTI — AXT Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AXTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: AXTI's contracted-InP leg is intact on paper with no price expression: the 2026-09-02 close of $56.95 reclaimed neither the $58 line lost 09-01 nor April's $64.25 placement shelf lost 08-28, and no AXT release or filing is dated later than 2026-08-17 across a twelve-session, 40.7% decline. The 2026-09-10 B. Riley conference is the only company-controlled date before the 2026-10-29 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 — beneath B. Riley's $55 from 2026-07-31, the lowest published number in the coverage set — confirms the $58–$64.25 zone as distribution with no base. Secondary: the ~2026-09-04 Lumentum deposit deadline and the 2026-09-10 conference both passing with no disclosure and $64.25 unreclaimed. --- ### AZZ — AZZ Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-10-07 Thesis: Beat-and-raise fired 2026-07-08 — Q1 adj EPS $1.85 vs $1.69, FY27 guide lifted twice on Metal Coatings momentum — but the catalyst is now behind the stock, which sits at all-time highs (~$157), ~23x forward and above consensus, with Wells Fargo's first post-print target ($144) below market. Late chase into a maturing grid theme with the substation leg being divested. Kill line: A weekly close below $148 forfeits the May breakout shelf ($151.67 peak) and turns the June push into a failed breakout; a secondary confirmation is Metal Coatings segment margin slipping from the ~31% band on the next print, or the grid theme rolling to saturated as the AVAIL/nVent EPG divestiture closes. --- ### BBNX — Beta Bionics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: The post-2026-07-29 re-acceleration leg has stalled at consensus: $19.42 on 2026-09-04 versus $19.72 on 2026-08-28, RSI(14) cooling 71.7 to 62.7, against a 12-analyst average target of $20.31. Into that stall the CMO and CEO sold on 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-03 at the $20 handle, and a securities class action was filed 2026-09-04 with a 2026-11-03 lead-plaintiff deadline, leaving a maturing narrative with nothing company-dated before the Q3 print in late October. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 unwinds the August extension, taking price under the 2026-08-14 close of $17.57 with the $13.88 stall of 2026-06-19 the next demonstrated shelf; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-27, est.) showing new patient starts back in sequential decline or the $131–136M FY26 revenue guide trimmed. --- ### BIDU — Baidu, Inc. ADS URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Mega-cap AI platforms, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: The last dated event in a flow-mechanical leg lands 2026-09-07: southbound Stock Connect eligibility for the Hong Kong counters that turned dual-primary on 2026-09-01. The ADR closed $95.58 on 2026-09-03, -41.2% from the $162.52 high, with the $92 weekly shelf less than four dollars below and no company-dated catalyst until a Q3 print estimated for late November, leaving a saturated narrative dependent on one exchange notice. Kill line: A weekly close below $92 breaks the last shelf under the post-print range and makes Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-19 $80 mark the operative published reference; secondarily, the ~2026-09-07 southbound eligibility window passing without the Hong Kong counters being added, leaving four 2026 status changes with no flow attached. --- ### BLMN — Bloomin' Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: The 2026-08-05 margin-repair re-rating has broken on the tape: after Friday closes of $10.55 and $10.58, the week to 2026-09-04 closed $9.79, back inside the guidance-raise gap and through the $9.90 pivot. No analyst action since 2026-08-10, no company-dated event until ~2026-11-04, and Q3 FY26 is guided to a loss of $(0.27)–$(0.22) against $(0.19) consensus. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.79 — the 2026-09-04 close, already through the $9.90 level that defined the 2026-08-05 advance — carries price into the pre-print August range. Secondary: the ~2026-11-04 Q3 report trimming the FY26 adjusted EPS range of $0.90–$1.00. --- ### BLSH — Bullish URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Bullish's regulatory repricing thesis requires successful CLARITY Act cloture followed by a weekly close above $37.10 before a weekly close below $31. The September 15, 2026 milestone is motion ripening, while the September 9 close of $34.34 leaves price confirmation unresolved. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 loses the market's August 26, 2026 intraday low and invalidates the advance thesis. Rejection or withdrawal of the H.R. 3633 cloture motion separately breaks the legislative-progress premise. --- ### BMEA — Biomea Fusion, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMEA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Icovamenib's beta-cell-preservation story got a dated readout when COVALENT-211 completed enrollment on 2026-08-24, but the same release pushed 26-week topline to Q1 2027 — against $35.2M cash at 2026-06-30, runway into Q2 2027 and going-concern language in the Q2 10-Q. Nothing company-dated resolves before 2026-10-06, leaving a financing print as the likelier next event than data. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.60 unwinds the re-rating that followed the 2026-08-24 COVALENT-211 enrollment release and puts the shares in the lower half of the $0.872–$2.990 52-week range; secondarily, COVALENT-212 enrollment completion not announced by 2026-12-31 after the Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 topline move. --- ### BMNR — BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Premium-to-NAV funding engine is closed; the 2026-08-10 release shows capital flipping from coin to float — 7,391 ETH bought for $14.3M (smallest week of 2026) against 3.0M shares retired, with cash down to $104M from $173M. The narrative on offer is a shrinking denominator at roughly parity to $11.6B of stated holdings. Next weekly release 2026-08-17. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 gives back the 2026-07-27 repricing that carried price through the $18 shelf; secondary conditions, a weekly release showing shares outstanding rising instead of falling, or ETH through the $1,700s with total holdings marked below $10.5B. --- ### BTCS — BTCS Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTCS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: BTCS Inc.’s Ethereum recovery thesis requires stronger DeFi earnings without renewed borrowing. The next Q3 disclosure must show gross profit above Q2 2026’s $1.5 million and debt no higher than June’s $50.4 million before a weekly close below $1.25 invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.25 invalidates the recovery thesis; Q3 gross profit at or below Q2 2026’s $1.5 million, or total debt above June 30’s $50.4 million on comparable reporting definitions, defeats the fundamental case. --- ### BTGO — BitGo Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTGO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Broken IPO that cleared its 2026-07-21 lockup without a supply flood but is grinding on the $4.665 all-time low with no bounce; Goldman cut its target to $7.75, and the undated $100M Galaxy verdict plus the ~2026-08-26 Q2 print are the only wildcards. A failing base to watch for a bottom, not to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.66 (loses the July all-time low) confirms the post-lockup supply has broken the floor and the downtrend resumes; a decisive weekly close back above $8.50 with a confirmed higher low would be the first constructive flip. --- ### CADL — Candel Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CADL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Pre-BLA re-rating is cooling rather than breaking: shares quoted $12.78 on 2026-09-05 against the $13.75 52-week high and the 2026-08-28 close of $13.07, with no company data since the 8/13 Q2 print. Three CEO firesides (09-09, 09-10, 09-15) fill September, but the only dated data is a translational digital-pathology poster at ASTRO on 09-29, leaving a maturing narrative with thinning flow into a Q4 2026 BLA. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.80 surrenders the entire August extension above the pre-print 52-week high, and a subsequent daily close under $11.36 returns price to the June–July failure zone. Secondary: the 2026-09-29 ASTRO poster passing without participation widening, or Q4 2026 BLA language changing at a September fireside. --- ### CCJ — Cameco Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCJ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Nuclear-uranium theme maturing and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Q2 print 2026-07-31 (EPS est $0.26, −49% YoY) is the binary; no setup until a higher-low reclaim of ~$104. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 turns the twice-broken structure into a trend, losing the July shelf and opening the $68.96 base; confirmed fundamentally by a Q2 delivery guide cut below 29–32M lb or a realized-price guide under $85/lb on the ~2026-07-31 print. A failed reclaim at ~$104 on thin volume marks a third lower high. --- ### CDE — Coeur Mining, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Coeur's repair leg has not started: the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index rose 33% in August (Bloomberg, 2026-09-01) while CDE closed 2026-09-04 at $21.24, where it sat on 2026-08-28. Record Q2 cash ($387.5M FCF, $347.0M net cash) is offset by the 2026-08-05 guidance cut, and no company-dated test arrives before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving the 2026-09-16 FOMC as the only driver inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $19 gives back the entire August gold-complex advance and puts the tape under Roth Capital's August mark. Secondary: the 2026-09-16 FOMC comes and goes with the miner complex firm and the shares still pinned near $21, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) showing gold below the revised 630,000 oz low end or capex above $520–605M. --- ### CEG — Constellation Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-12 Thesis: CEG closed $290.04 on 2026-09-02, roughly +3.5% on the day and the first close above the $281–$282.50 band that had capped every attempt since the shelf broke 2026-07-19 (failed touches $282.50 on 08-14, $282.41 on 08-27). RSI(14) 59.8. The reclaim came with no company disclosure since 2026-08-06 and none dated before the 2026-11-09 Q3 print, leaving a saturated theme whose breakout rests on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $281 puts price back inside the $281–$282.50 band and makes the 2026-09-02 reclaim a third failure after 08-14 and 08-27, confirming the zone as resistance. Secondary: the 2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group remit arriving with no carve-out for co-located or behind-the-meter generation. --- ### CIEN — Ciena Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CIEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The 1.6T WaveLogic demand cycle is intact at the order book, but the trade has broken: $627.00 (06-02) to ~$370 (07-18) is a ~41% de-rating, and the $455–$467 shelf that framed the prior read is gone. Multiple compression from 54x forward, not a demand miss, is driving it. No entry until a higher low prints; the Q3 report on 2026-09-03 is the next hard reset. Kill line: A weekly close below $355 loses the 2026-07-18 reaction low ($359.01 intraday) and confirms the June–July correction as a full de-rating rather than a shakeout; secondary: the Q3 FY26 print (2026-09-03) guiding Q4 revenue below the $1.575B–$1.675B floor set 2026-06-04, or adjusted gross margin coming in under the ~45% guided level. --- ### CRCL — Circle Internet Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRCL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Circle Internet Group's Arc-led infrastructure breakout failed when its 2026-09-09 close of $92.99 breached the published $95 boundary. The scheduled 2026-09-16 public launch still tests delivery, while any recovery case requires renewed price confirmation. Kill line: A daily close below $95 invalidates the published breakout thesis; the 2026-09-09 adjusted close of $92.99 already met this condition. Independently, Arc remaining unavailable to the public after 2026-09-16 invalidates the launch premise. --- ### CRCT — Cricut, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Bitcoin miners, AI enterprise software Thesis: Hardware-to-platform crossover still holds the 2026-08-05 gap: Platform revenue $85.0M now exceeds Products $71.3M, but Q2's 74.5% gross margin carried $26.7M of one-time credits against a ~58.9% ex-item rate. Goldman Sachs began coverage 2026-08-19 at Sell with a $4.50 target, and the next dated company event is the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print — a maturing narrative with roughly ten weeks of no disclosure into a seasonally soft quarter. Kill line: A daily close below $5.16, the low of the 2026-08-05 post-print gap session; secondarily, the ~2026-09-30 fall-launch window passing with no product announced, or the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing gross margin near the 58.9% ex-item level with Products revenue down double digits again. --- ### CRSR — Corsair Gaming, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRSR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI chips & memory, Prediction markets & betting Thesis: The recovery leg off the 2026-08-21 close of $10.93 carried CRSR to $12.00 on 2026-08-28 without any company disclosure: the margin-mix story (33.2% Q2 gross margin, peripherals +13% YoY at 44.9%) is fully published, Goldman's 2026-08-19 Sell at $11 sits just under the tape, and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, leaving a saturated narrative trading inside a $9–$16 band of targets. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.75 breaks the recovery leg off the 2026-08-21 close of $10.93 and puts the market back inside Goldman's $11 target; secondary confirmation is Components & Systems gross margin printing below the 26.3% posted in Q2 FY26 at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 report. --- ### DDOG — Datadog, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI enterprise software, GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: June's sell-side upgrade wave has exhausted and the first cut printed — Bernstein to Market Perform (PT $226, 2026-07-06) as the stock rolled over. AI-observability narrative intact but maturing; the $278.71 parabola round-tripped and the recovery is stalling below the high into the 2026-08-06 Q2 binary. The base has not formed, so there is nothing here to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $234 breaks the June higher-low and confirms the failed-parabola round trip (stalling recovery resolves down); a subsequent Q2 (2026-08-06) guide cut below ~29% YoY revenue growth would compound the de-rate. --- ### DPRO — Draganfly Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DPRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Thesis: US drone-onshoring policy is doing the re-rating: the 2026-08-13 tariff proclamation and the 2026-09-01 FAA Section 44807 heavy-lift exemption carried price from a 50-day average of $4.67 to a $6.12 close on 2026-09-04, while filed Q2 revenue of $2.66M and a $12.03M net loss show none of it in the numbers yet, and no company-dated catalyst falls inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.70 (surrenders the 50-day average of $4.67 that the 2026-08-13 tariff and 2026-09-01 FAA exemption sequence lifted price off); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.) with revenue under $3M and no tariff-attributable order named. --- ### DTIL — Precision BioSciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DTIL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: First clinical evidence that a gene editor removes hepatitis-B cccDNA (EASL late-breaker, 2026-05-27, <1% remaining in one biopsy) is the whole story; the shares closed $7.47 on 2026-09-04, 19.5% under the $9.28 52-week high, with no company-dated catalyst until the guided year-end 2026 PBGENE-HBV and PBGENE-DMD updates and a runway that explicitly leans on the ATM. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 hands back more than the full 10.3% three-month advance and breaks the post-EASL range; secondarily, the guided year-end 2026 PBGENE-HBV update slipping into 2027 at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, or material ATM issuance appearing with no data event to absorb it. --- ### EDIT — Editas Medicine, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EDIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Legacy pivot on one asset: after halting ex vivo reni-cel in December 2024, Editas is EDIT-401 — an in vivo LNP editor for HeFH showing ~90%+ NHP reductions in LDL-C, Lp(a) and ApoB, with an Australian CTN submitted in August 2026 and four ANZ sites named. $211.6M cash funds it into 2H 2028, but first human data is guided to Q1 2027 and a $400M shelf was filed 2026-08-31 into a 22.1% three-month advance, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.75 surrenders the three-month advance into the 2026-09-04 close of $3.23 and returns the shares toward the May 2026 offering price of $2.25; secondarily, a takedown under the 2026-08-31 $400M shelf priced at a discount, or an EDIT-401 Phase 1/2 initiation that slips out of 2026. --- ### EMBC — Embecta Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EMBC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The post-collapse levered-stub re-rating extended to a 2026-09-02 close of $5.69 while the short base shrank to 5.44M shares (9.94% of float) from 6.68M on 2026-08-21 — the covering fuel is thinning as price trades above the highest of four published 12-month targets ($5.00), with no company datapoint due before the ~November Q4 print and only the 2026-09-09/09-10 conference appearances in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.60 gives back the entire post-2026-08-11 continuation and returns price to the 2026-08-07 gap session's zone (that session closed $4.42); secondarily, the 2026-09-09/09-10 conference appearances passing with no covering analyst lifting the $4.00 average target, or short interest printing below 5.44M shares without a higher high. --- ### EOLS — Evolus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EOLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Margin-inflection re-rating has run to a new 52-week high — the 2026-09-04 close of $9.30 is +39.2% over three months with RSI(14) at 80.6 — on no company news since the 2026-08-05 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 surrenders the August breakout shelf (2026-08-21 close $8.39, prior 52-week high $8.60) and ends the September extension leg. Secondary: a common-stock or convertible offering off the $250M shelf near the highs, or Q3 adjusted gross margin under the 67.0–67.5% guided range attributed to import duty. --- ### ESTC — Elastic N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ESTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-20 Themes: Cybersecurity Thesis: AI-retrieval-layer narrative accelerating: Q4 FY26 total RPO $1.98B grew 28% YoY against revenue +16%, and the 2026-07-30 OpenAI partnership re-rated the name 56.8% in three months. The 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print is the binary — company guided $469–470M (+13.1%) and has not yet raised the FY27 $1.985–2.000B range. Kill line: A daily close below $76 (roughly a fifth off the $94.47 52-week high, giving back the advance rather than digesting it); secondarily, the 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print passing with no raise to the FY27 $1.985–$2.000B revenue range and cRPO growth below the 20% posted at Q4 FY26. --- ### EVC — Entravision Communication URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Smadex AI-DSP re-rate broke to a new 52-week high of $13.48 with no dated company news since 2026-07-12 — an anticipatory leg into the 2026-08-10 Q2 print, the binary on whether Q1's +204% ATS growth and ~22% EBIT margin held. TelevisaUnivision expiry (2026-12-31) still unresolved. Kill line: A daily close below $10.12 fails the July breakout above the prior 52-week high and returns price to the June–July range; a 2026-08-10 Q2 print showing ATS growth decelerating from +204% or margin below ~22% would compound the break. --- ### FLEX — Flex Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLEX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials Thesis: AI-manufacturing re-acceleration: the 2026-07-09 Cerebras CS-3 production expansion is the first company-specific bid since the S&P-inclusion +6% pop round-tripped to ~$147, refreshing the data-center power/EMS narrative into the ~07-29 Q1 print. That earnings binary is the gate — a fresh customer win into a catalyst vacuum, but sizing is capped by print risk and an unconfirmed higher low. Kill line: A weekly close below $142 loses the post-Q4 breakout shelf and confirms the S&P-inclusion bid has unwound into a trend break, opening the ~$130 gap base. Secondary: CPI/SpinCo growth guided below the +65-75% FY2027 target at the ~07-29 print, or the AI-power theme flipping to saturated. --- ### FLY — Firefly Aerospace Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the 200-day, this is a broken structure in sector-wide liquidation. Aug 11 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $16.00 (the 52-week low) confirms no base is forming and opens an unsupported vacuum beneath. Secondarily, failure to reclaim $22 on volume before the 2026-08-11 Q2 print, or a FY2026 guidance cut from $420–450M at that print, keeps the structure uninvestable. --- ### FWDI — Forward Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FWDI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-10-07 Thesis: Forward Industries' Solana treasury re-rating requires growing tokens per share and a verified recovery to net asset value. Updated disclosure must show fully diluted mNAV at or above 1.0x and SOL per share of at least 0.0754 before a weekly close below $4.95 invalidates the case; the reported 0.908x mNAV is dated 2026-06-30. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.95 ends the re-rating thesis by losing the March repurchase shelf identified in the 2026-09-07 assessment. Separately, a subsequent treasury disclosure below 0.0754 SOL per fully diluted share breaks the accumulation leg. --- ### GOOG — Alphabet Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOOG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms, EV & autonomous mobility, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Cloud backlog conversion is still the leg — $514B and Cloud +82% at the 2026-07-22 print — but the 2026-09-02 clean sweep (AdX divestiture denied, Gemini 3.8 Flash shipped, Berkshire's $36.6B stake on CNBC) bought only a 1.6% follow-through session to $339.08, still 15.0% under the $398.80 high. The story is saturated and nothing company-dated resolves before the 2026-10-27 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $328 surrenders the 2026-07-22 post-print reaction shelf ($329.43 after hours) and dates the 2026-09-02/09-03 bounce as a lower high; secondary confirmation if the 2026-10-27 Q3 print lifts 2026 capex above $205B or Cloud growth prints out of the 80s. --- ### HIMS — Hims & Hers Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: GLP-1 reaccel gets marked to market on 2026-08-10: guide $680-700M (+25-28%) vs Q1's +4%, street at $698.9M. Since the last note the FTC/CA/UT sued (2026-07-29, N.D. Cal.), BofA cut $37 to $30, and Amazon ($50/mo Medicare GLP-1, 2026-08-06) plus CVS entered the lane. Consensus PT $30.32 now sits under the $31.59 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 loses the $29.53 convertible conversion reference and the pre-print shelf; secondary condition: the 2026-08-10 Q2 print coming in under the $680M guide floor or a Q3 guide that fails to hold a +25% run-rate. --- ### HTFL — Heartflow, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTFL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The post-Q2 re-rating is intact but the marginal bid now pays above the whole published target band: the 2026-09-02 close of $50.00 sits above the $45 top target set on 2026-08-14, RSI(14) is 88.0, and four insider sale filings landed between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-02. The 2026-09-09 Wells Fargo fireside chat is the only company-dated event before the ~2026-11-12 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with no number-changing catalyst for ten weeks. Kill line: A weekly close below $42 surrenders the 2026-08-14 gap-day close of $42.08 and the post-print shelf; the 2026-09-09 fireside chat passing with no commercial framing attached to FUSION, followed by a failed retest of the $50.43 high, confirms the break. --- ### ILMN — Illumina, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ILMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Momentum has outrun the information set: a 52-week high of $227.69 then a fade to the 2026-08-28 close of $215.59, RSI(14) 69.2, with no company-dated input since the 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise and none scheduled before the Q3 print expected ~2026-10-29. Price sits roughly 19% above the $188.40 consensus target cited 2026-08-27, leaving a saturated narrative carried by flow rather than operating data. Kill line: A weekly close below $205 loses the 2026-07-30 print-day high of $205.10 that capped the tape for three weeks before becoming support, returning price to the $188–$205 post-print range and marking the August breakout as failed. Secondary: Q3 FY26 revenue under the $1.14B guide floor set 2026-07-30. --- ### IMMX — Immix Biopharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Single-asset CAR-T regulatory story now inside its own event window: the 95% CR (19/20) from 2026-05-21 is the bar the late-September NEXICART-2 update must clear on a bigger denominator. The 2026-09-02 close of $13.96 is 3.5% under the $14.47 52-week high with RSI(14) at 81.1, and no company release has landed since 2026-08-04 — a well-known setup marked up on no new information. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the entire August advance; secondary break is the late-September NEXICART-2 update arriving with a CR rate under the 95% (19/20) anchor of 2026-05-21 across a larger denominator, or the window passing with no data and no reaffirmed 2026 BLA date. --- ### IMRN — Immuron Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Immuron’s consumer-health expansion needs a dated US PROIBS launch and disclosed commercial terms to validate its September repricing. The 2026-09-04 agreement supplies neither; a weekly close below $1.65 or an annual report without those disclosures would break the near-term case. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.65 invalidates the announcement-continuation thesis; separately, the FY26 annual report expected around 2026-09-30 appearing with neither US PROIBS launch timing nor commercial terms invalidates near-term commercial validation. --- ### INBX — Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INBX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Thesis: Inhibrx Biosciences’ advance prices HexAgon clinical success and a Phase 3 start within the guided quarter. The 2026-09-08 results and September start confirmation test that case; a weekly close below $104 or reported primary-endpoint failure invalidates it. Kill line: A weekly close below $104 breaks the August shelf defined by the 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 market closes; independently, reported failure on the prespecified primary endpoint in the 2026-09-08 HexAgon results ends the clinical thesis. --- ### IONQ — IonQ, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IONQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The missing forward number is the story: no Q3 range and a $280–290M FY guide that excludes SkyWater have left IonQ unbenchmarked since 2026-08-05, and the 2026-09-08 NYSE Investor Day is the dated venue where combined guidance is expected. Price closed $37.64 on 2026-09-02, 54.1% under the $82.09 high, and the $44 repair marker was never touched, leaving a saturated narrative whose next bid has to be bought by a number rather than a headline. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 takes out the level that has held every week since the 2026-08-05 print and opens the $30 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 Investor Day passing without a combined FY revenue range including SkyWater leaves the name with no published bar into the Q3 report. --- ### KURA — Kura Oncology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KURA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The binary already fired: KOMZIFTI's 2025-11-13 approval and ~40% R/R NPM1 share are priced, and the $24–28 targets need a frontline Phase 3 that doesn't read until 2028. The tape is drifting — $10.39, lower third of the H1 range. A maturing special-situation biotech in a two-year catalyst gap; the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next real read, not an accelerating setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the post-approval consolidation base and loses the rising 200-day; confirmed if the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows KOMZIFTI revenue stalling near Q1's $5.8M, or the menin-inhibitor class flips to saturated as revumenib and bleximenib take frontline share. --- ### LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LITE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Two initiations in two sessions — Evercore ISI $1,100 on 08-31, Deutsche Bank $1,200 on 09-01 — and the tape closed 2026-09-02 at $870.58, still under the $885 weekly-close level and below the 08-31 close of $914.76. The $40 fiscal-2028 earnings-power leg rests on 2026-08-27 conference commentary; 09-09 Citi and 09-10 Wolfe are the last dated company events before an unconfirmed ~11-03 print, leaving a saturated narrative absorbing coverage seats without a new bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $820 loses the $820.59 lower August shelf and ends the post-print leg; $866.71 is the immediate shelf, and the $885 weekly-close level sits above the 2026-09-02 close of $870.58. Secondary: 09-09 Citi and 09-10 Wolfe passing with no OCS, 1.6T or Cloud Light figure beyond 2026-08-27's. --- ### LUNR — Intuitive Machines, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LUNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The June 30 NASA Moon BASE award ($148.3M Nova-C) bought exactly one green session before the stock broke: seven straight down days into 2026-07-13 for -24.5%, -36.5% on the month, $13.80 on 2026-07-18 versus a $38.55 May high. A live $500M ATM plus a new insider 10b5-1 plan (up to 1.94M shares, filed 2026-07-07) means supply keeps hitting a bid that is not there. No company catalyst until the ~2026-08-18 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 opens the pre-run base and puts the $7.78 52-week low in play; only a weekly close back above $20 — with the ATM shelf exhausted or withdrawn and the space complex printing higher highs — restores a constructive read. --- ### MAN — ManpowerGroup URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Prediction markets & betting, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Cyclical staffing inflection confirmed by the 2026-08-07 10-Q, but sell-side marks stopped moving 2026-07-20 and the next company binary is ~2026-10-15. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 gives back the 2026-07-16 gap-up shelf and reopens the unfilled July earnings gap toward the pre-print zone; a soft US August payrolls print around 2026-09-04 would be the macro confirmation that the cyclical premise is rolling over. --- ### MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets after the move. Saturated narrative, no company catalyst until the ~Nov Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $285 confirms the July–August distribution — price would then sit more than 10% under the $319.76 52-week high, with the refining-margin theme already saturated and no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### MRNA — Moderna, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRNA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: The INTerpath-001 platform-validation leg is intact, but the company monetised it first: $2.6B of upsized 0.00% converts priced 2026-08-28 at a $210.58 conversion price, six sessions after the 177.0% print, with the shares at $137.99 and 20.9% below the 2026-08-19 close of $174.38. No company-dated catalyst lands before ESMO (2026-10-23 to 10-27), leaving a saturated tape where the upgrades arrived after the move and the issuer was the marginal seller. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 puts the shares beneath the entire post-INTerpath-001 range, with no traded reference until the pre-data zone in the low $60s; secondarily, ESMO (2026-10-23 to 10-27) passing with no INTerpath-001 late-breaker, or a disclosed RFS hazard ratio materially weaker than KEYNOTE-942's 0.51. --- ### MRVI — Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Freight & logistics, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The Moderna read-through leg has round-tripped most of its gain: after gapping +25.78% on 2026-08-19 and printing an $8.87 intraday high on 2026-08-25, MRVI closed $7.32 on 2026-09-04, 18.7% below the $9.00 series high, leaving the $7.24 pre-gap ledge as the immediate test. Nothing has been disclosed since the 2026-08-06 Q2 print, and no dated event tests the $205–215M FY26 guide before the ~November Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.24 forfeits the pre-gap 52-week-high ledge the 2026-08-19 gap cleared and turns the read-through into a round trip toward the unfilled $5.74–$6.72 zone; secondary confirmation would be the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print reaffirming or narrowing the $205–215M FY26 range with no cancer-vaccine order commentary. --- ### MSFT — Microsoft Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSFT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: AI-capex derating still in control and now colliding with a hostile print tape: Alphabet lost ~$294B on 2026-07-24 punished purely for AI spend, Tesla/Intel/Google all sold post-earnings, and MSFT reports Q4 FY26 on 2026-07-29 AMC below its lost $400 shelf and ~$414 200-day. No accelerating leg to buy — the print is a binary landmine, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $356 breaks the post-June demand pocket (52-week low $349.20 just beneath) and opens $300–$340; the stand-aside only turns constructive on a daily reclaim and hold above $455 on expanding volume, with the 2026-07-29 Q4 print the event that decides which side resolves. --- ### MSTR — Strategy Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MSTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Strategy Inc.'s bitcoin accumulation thesis needs successive purchase disclosures and STRC recovering its $100 stated amount. Those milestones must arrive before a weekly close below $123 invalidates the price structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $123 invalidates the September recovery structure; renewed common-equity financing alongside unchanged or declining bitcoin holdings would separately contradict the accumulation mechanism. --- ### MTRN — Materion Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, AI chips & memory, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Beryllium critical-materials scarcity narrative still building, but the parabola cracked: a new ATH of $298.76 in early July gave way to a 5.6% reversal on 2026-07-07 to $247.20, now ~$258 and still ~9% above KeyBanc's $237 top target. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the next binary; the current setup is a post-blowoff mean-reversion within an accelerating theme. Kill line: A weekly close below $237 (loses KeyBanc's top-target shelf and the early-June breakout base) points price toward the 200-day; a 2026-08-05 Q2 print showing the record backlog rolling over quarter-over-quarter would confirm the top. --- ### NET — Cloudflare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NET/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The post-Q2 re-rating is fully unwound: the 2026-09-02 close of $272.74 is 17.6% under the $330.83 high with RSI(14) at 31.7, and the three-month price change is +1.5%, erasing the summer advance with no company-dated news behind it since the 2026-08-06 print. The $2.864–2.870B FY2026 guide stands unchallenged until the 2026-10-29 Q3 report, leaving a saturated narrative and only a 2026-09-09 conference slot in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $260 — roughly 5% under the 2026-09-02 close of $272.74 — turns the three-month price change negative and extends the September decline past a re-test of the pre-print range. Secondary: the 2026-10-29 Q3 print landing FY2026 revenue inside $2.864–2.870B with no raise, or net retention slipping from 120%. --- ### NKE — Nike, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: The $39 level the prior note flagged is behind price: NIKE closed 2026-09-02 at $38.24, under the 2026-08-17 close of $39.09 that coverage called a 12-year low, and JPMorgan cut FY2027 EPS to $1.55 vs $1.72 consensus on 2026-08-31. The company confirmed Q1 FY2027 results for 2026-10-01, not the 2026-09-24 estimate calendars carried, leaving a dead narrative with four more weeks of no company-dated news. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 puts price roughly 10% under JPMorgan's $40 target, the lowest published mark, and confirms no trough formed ahead of the print; secondarily, the 2026-10-01 Q1 FY2027 print passing with the FY2027 guide cut toward JPMorgan's $1.55 EPS and no upgrade in the two weeks after. --- ### NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NNE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. The setup does not clear until a base forms above $22. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.78 confirms the fresh 52-week low as a breakdown rather than a washout and opens undiscovered downside; secondarily, any 424B or 8-K disclosing ATM share sales into a bounce confirms dilution is capping every rally. --- ### NUTX — Nutex Health Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: Managed care & health services, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Re-rating leg has stalled: NUTX closed $162.98 on 2026-07-17 after five straight down days, ~20% off the $204.00 high, giving back the June breakout that B. Riley's 2026-06-26 Buy/$290 initiation topped out. A $55.0M true-up of 18,950 ineligible IDR claims plus a live SEC probe of the same revenue line means the ~2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary. The theme is maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $150 forfeits the spring base and the June breakout structure, reclassifying the March-to-June move as a completed squeeze. Secondary: a second true-up of ineligible IDR claims, a disclosed collection rate under 80%, or any SEC enforcement action on arbitration revenue. --- ### NVAX — Novavax, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Novavax's Matrix-M royalty re-rating needs company-confirmed Sanofi trial timing at the 2026-09-09–2026-09-10 conferences. The near-term case fails if both pass without that timing or a weekly close falls below $9.00. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 ends the price-confirmed Matrix-M re-rating thesis; separately, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-10 conferences passing without company-confirmed Sanofi Phase 3 initiation timing ends the near-term catalyst case. --- ### OKLO — Oklo Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OKLO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $38.83 hands back the entire three-session recovery off the 2026-07-29 low and returns the $36.61 52-week low to the tape; secondary break if the 2026-08-07 Q2 call passes with no dated Groves first-criticality schedule. --- ### OMDA — Omada Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OMDA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The post-print leg is fully retraced — $22.77 on 2026-09-04 versus $23.89 on 2026-08-21 and the $26.78 52-week high — leaving price under the mid-July pre-beat shelf despite eight sell-side target actions between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-31. The 2026-09-10 first-ever Investor Day is the binary: GLP-1 prescribing, Flex Care and the cholesterol program, all excluded from the raised $334–340M FY guide, either get a dated ramp or stay unmodelled inside a maturing narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 completes the unwind of the post-print leg and puts price beneath every session since mid-July as well as the lowest covering sell-side target; secondarily, the 2026-09-10 Investor Day passing without a dated contribution path for GLP-1 prescribing, Flex Care or the cholesterol program. --- ### OPEN — Opendoor Technologies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-16 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Early-July retail squeeze is broken: OPEN lost the $4.88 insider shelf and $4.50 base, fell ~12% to $3.88 on 2026-07-24 on a technical breakdown plus fresh housing weakness, into an Aug 4 Q2 print. A rolled-over meme trading into an earnings binary — falling-knife territory, not a fresh entry. Kill line: A daily close below $3.50 confirms the broken squeeze and opens the path toward the $2.65 analyst target; a weak or dilutive 2026-08-04 Q2 print seals the downtrend. Reclaiming $4.50–$4.88 on volume would negate the breakdown. --- ### OPRT — Oportun Financial Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Margin repair at a non-prime lender is intact on the numbers but the post-Q2 bid has drained: after the 2026-08-05 beat (adj EPS $0.42 vs $0.33, adj EBITDA $49M vs a $34–$39M guide), the stock peaked at $8.09 on 2026-08-07 and closed $7.36 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 38.1 against 72.0 a week earlier. No company news since 2026-08-13 and no dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative to hold its range on nothing. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 ends the post-Q2 re-rating leg; secondarily, at the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, an annualized net charge-off rate above the 12.0% top of the FY 11.7% +/- 30bp band, or a cut to the FY2026 adjusted EPS guide of $1.50-$1.65. --- ### PANL — Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-03 Themes: Freight & logistics Thesis: Dry-bulk recovery is in the P&L but not the tape: Q1 2026 (2026-05-11) adjusted EBITDA +70% YoY to $25.2M on $15,252/day TCE, yet the stock closed $7.42 on 2026-08-07, 20.1% under the $9.29 52-week high. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the binary that resolves which side is right. Kill line: A daily close below $7.00 after the 2026-08-10 Q2 print (gives back the range held into it from the 2026-08-07 close of $7.42); secondary condition, the Baltic Dry Index slipping back under its 2026-07-14 level, dating the August rate strength as weather-driven. --- ### PATH — UiPath, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PATH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Legacy RPA vendor re-cast as the orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents; the last leg to a 2026-08-28 close of $18.15 came from Salesforce's 2026-08-26 beat-and-raise lifting all software, not from any UiPath datapoint, leaving price far above the ~$13.53 average analyst target into the 2026-09-03 Q2 print, where guidance already implies net new ARR falling from $49M to $28–33M. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 unwinds the entire August advance and returns the shares inside the $12–17 sell-side target band; secondary, a 2026-09-03 Q2 print with net new ARR at or under the ~$33M implied by guidance and no raise to the $2.058–2.063B FY2027 ARR range. --- ### PAYC — Paycom Software, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Operating-leverage re-rating on a de-rated HCM name printed a new 52-week high at $238.53 (2026-08-28) after JP Morgan raised its target to $264 on 2026-08-25 while keeping Neutral — the fifth raise without a stance change. RSI(14) fell to 76.2 from 83.7 as price rose, and nothing dated tests growth before the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.), leaving a maturing narrative running on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $214 (surrenders the $214–220 post-Q2 shelf and the 2026-08-07 close of $214.94 where the second leg began); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) leaving the 8–9% FY26 recurring-revenue guide unchanged-to-lower or adjusted EBITDA margin at or below Q2's 44.2%. --- ### PAYS — Paysign, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The momentum leg has broken while the fundamental leg stays untested: the shares gave back 11.4% from the $14.14 high to a 2026-09-02 close of $12.53, RSI(14) 44.2 from 96.7 on 2026-08-21, after the 2026-08-26–27 Midwest IDEAS appearance passed with no disclosure. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 removes the entire post-2026-08-05 re-rating and puts price under the CEO's 2026-08-06 sale average of $11.8757 and the lowest of the five published targets. Secondary: an active-program count at or below 160 for 2026-09-30 versus the 165–170 guided. --- ### PL — Planet Labs PBC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The 9/2 close of $19.99 reclaimed the $19.83 July range top and held about 4% above the $19.16 range low with RSI(14) at 13.2, but everything still rests on the 9/3 Q2 FY27 print against a $102–107M guide unrevised since 6/4. Options priced a 12% move on 8/27; PL exceeded its implied move in six of eight prints and fell 36.2% on 6/4 despite beating consensus, leaving a broken-structure narrative with one dated event able to restart it. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.16 surrenders the July range low, leaving no prior structure in the covered series beneath the tape after the $21.53 shelf broke 8/27; secondarily, the 9/3 Q2 FY27 call cutting FY27 guidance beneath $425–441M or Q2 revenue landing under $102M. --- ### PLTR — Palantir Technologies Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The narrative on offer is government-AI production revenue compounding — the 2026-09-01 TITAN award put $127M into Palantir USG — The tape answered with closes of $179.92 (-3.47%) and $169.46 (-5.81%), losing the $179–$180.18 shelf and the 2026-08-12 pocket low of $171.04. No company data is due before roughly 2026-11-02, leaving a saturated narrative to trade 09-04 payrolls, 09-11 CPI and 09-16 FOMC. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 extends the failed August breakout past the 2026-08-12 pocket low of $171.04 and removes the last structure above the pre-August base; secondary: 09-04 payrolls, 09-11 CPI, 09-16 FOMC and the 09-18 expiry all passing with no daily close back above the $180.18 shelf. --- ### POWL — Powell Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Record orders $934M and a 3.0x book-to-bill lifted backlog to $2.4B (+69% YoY) at the 2026-08-03 print, yet shares fell 13.4% the next pre-market on a second straight EPS/revenue miss and closed 2026-08-14 at $213.48, -33.7% off the high. The order book accelerated; the tape did not. No dated catalyst until the fiscal-year print in the December quarter. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 ends the post-print stabilization attempt and extends the lower-high sequence off the $321.94 May high; separately, a Q4/FY2026 print showing backlog under the $2.4B record or book-to-bill below 1.0x breaks the order-acceleration leg regardless of price. --- ### PTEN — Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01) and bounced to $9.78 — but nothing is reclaimed until $10.50. Q2 print 07-30 is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.57 breaks the early-July low and confirms the downtrend rather than a base; secondary: the 2026-07-30 Q2 call cuts the 100-rig year-end path while US gas rigs roll back under 120. --- ### PTRN — Pattern Group Inc. Series A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTRN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Fundamentals still compounding — Q2 revenue $876.8M +47%, NRR 129%, FY guide raised to $3.42–3.46B — while the tape drifted from $23.16 post-print to $20.20 on 2026-09-04, closing on the $19.00 shelf where June's secondary cleared 9.2M shares. The 2026-09-11 Goldman Communacopia slot is the only dated event before the ~November Q3 print, and a $28.13 average analyst target the tape has ignored for five weeks leaves a saturated story with thin new bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $19 breaks the June secondary shelf where 9.2M Series A shares cleared at $19.00 public / $18.145 net and opens the IPO-era $14–15.63 zone; secondarily, the 2026-09-11 Goldman Communacopia appearance passing with no reclaim of $23.16, or Q3 revenue at or below the $840M guide low end. --- ### QBTS — D-Wave Quantum Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QBTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Three named enterprise agreements (AT&T 07-27, Verafin 08-03, DOCOMO 08-18) never held a bid; after the 2026-08-25 CFO notice and a 2026-09-01 Pomerantz investigation announcement the shares closed 2026-09-02 at $16.49, just above the 2026-07-29 low of $16.18. Nothing company-dated sits between here and the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, leaving a dead narrative priced off Treasury yields and short-interest mechanics. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.18 removes the 2026-07-29 low and the $16.21 pre-AT&T shelf, the last references under the July–August recovery, and reopens the range toward the 52-week low. Secondary: the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print arriving with no contract value attached to the AT&T, Nasdaq Verafin or DOCOMO agreements. --- ### QLYS — Qualys, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QLYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The digestion read is on its own line: the 2026-09-04 close of $171.65 sits 0.9% above the $170 shelf, with RSI(14) at 39.1 versus 51.1 on 2026-08-28 and no company news since the 2026-08-05 target cluster. The pullback restored headroom to six of the nine post-print targets, but with no company-dated event before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print, a saturated narrative has nothing scheduled to defend it. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 confirms the post-print re-rate is unwinding rather than resting, putting price under all but two of the nine 2026-08-05 targets and opening the unfilled 2026-08-04 gap toward the $155.47 prior 2026 ceiling. Secondary: Q3 (~2026-11-03 est.) revenue at or below the $185.5M guide low end. --- ### QUBT — Quantum Computing Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: A second straight lower close after the failed $8.22 reclaim: 2026-09-02 settled $7.84 with the 50-day at $8.60 and the 200-day at $9.55 both descending overhead. The 2026-09-10 Lake Street appearance is attendance rather than disclosure and nothing revenue-bearing lands before Q3 around 2026-11-10, leaving a saturated narrative under a broken shelf against a 31.94% short float. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.30 loses the July 2026 range floor, the last reference beneath the $8.22 shelf that broke 2026-08-28 and failed again 2026-09-01/09-02; secondarily the 2026-09-10 Lake Street date and both the ~09-10 and ~09-25 FINRA settlements passing with short interest near 64.09M shares and no weekly close above the descending $8.60 50-day. --- ### RCEL — Avita Medical, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Small-cap wound-care turnaround with a dated profitability inflection: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise lifted FY2026 guidance to $86-89M and put Q4 2026 on the calendar for cash-flow breakeven, and the 2026-08-18 PermeaDerm-I readout pulled BTIG to $11 and TD Cowen to $14 on 2026-08-19. The re-rating has already carried price to $11.20 at the 52-week high with RSI 81.4, and no company-dated release lands before the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 — roughly the midpoint of the advance from the 2026-08-07 session print of $7.53 to the 2026-09-04 close of $11.20 — ends the momentum leg. Secondary: any walk-back of the Q4 2026 cash-flow-breakeven guide, or an FY2026 revenue guide trimmed below $86M at the Q3 print. --- ### RDW — Redwire Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Post-SpaceX-IPO deflation broke RDW to a 2026-07-18 low near $8.51 (~67% off the 5/28 record). A relief bounce on Huntsville/Indiana facility news and $41.5M of H1 Stalker drone orders keeps running into a ~$850M dilution ceiling: the $500M ATM prints ~59M shares at this quote. No higher-low base has formed; the ~August Q2 print is the first test of whether raised capital converts to revenue. Kill line: A weekly close below $8 loses the 2026-07-18 cycle low near $8.06 and confirms the next leg of the post-SpaceX-IPO downtrend; a Q2 guidance cut or a fresh capital raise disclosed alongside the ~August print reinforces the break. --- ### RGTI — Rigetti Computing, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RGTI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-26 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.53 takes out the 52-week low and confirms the quantum pure-play theme has gone from saturated to dead, with no bid until a company-specific contract event; corroborating tells would be an ATM-issuance 8-K filed into any bounce, or the ~2026-08-10 Q2 print passing without a named Fortune-500 Cepheus customer. --- ### RIVN — Rivian Automotive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Post-binary delivery arithmetic: the raised 65,000–70,000 FY guide needs 42,441–47,441 H2 units against 22,559 delivered in H1, while the R2 second shift (2026-09-30) is not material until Q4. The 2026-09-03 close of $15.91 sits 41 cents above the $15.50 July placement price, leaving a maturing narrative whose next hard proof is the ~2026-10-02 Q3 delivery tally, into an interim CFO seat from 2026-10-30. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.90 loses the pre-raise selloff shelf the 2026-07-08 placement was struck against and ends the recovery leg; secondarily, the R2 second shift still not running when Q3 volumes publish (~2026-10-02, est.), or a full-year delivery guide cut below the 65,000 floor at the Q3 report. --- ### RPD — Rapid7, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RPD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: AI enterprise software, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The post-Q2 cost-out re-rating broke: back-to-back macro sessions on 2026-09-01 (-9.7%) and 2026-09-02 (-7.8%) returned RPD to a $11.00 close on 2026-09-04, through the $11.20 level this coverage published as the break condition and back inside the July $10.60–11.20 shelf. What is left is a margin program with a Q4 deadline, three September conference appearances, and no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.60 breaks the July shelf that the September retrace has returned price into and leaves the $9 targets at Morgan Stanley and DA Davidson as the next marked levels; the secondary break is the 20% Q4 non-GAAP operating margin target being softened at the 2026-09-08 or 2026-09-16 conference presentations. --- ### RUM — Rumble Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The sell-the-news break is now confirmed: RUM lost the $6.46–$6.66 100/200-day shelf and closed $5.76 on 2026-07-17, -19% from the post-rebrand tape and within 25% of the $4.62 52-week low. Every moving average is overhead. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print — first consolidated quarter plus the company's first-ever formal guidance — is the only thing that re-rates this. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.20 breaks the last shelf before the $4.62 52-week low and confirms the pivot is being repriced as dilution rather than growth; secondarily, a 2026-08-10 Q2 print that misses ~$116.6M consolidated revenue or pairs it with soft maiden guidance removes the last dated re-rate on the board. --- ### SATL — Satellogic Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SATL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The mania leg broke in July — the $6.33 shelf and the $4.97 range low both went — and the 2026-08-05 Q2 print handed the name a different story: revenue $15.9M (+259% YoY) vs $9.6M consensus, plus the first positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA in company history. Price bounced to $5.52 on 2026-08-07 (+9.52%, RSI 80.1) with no base, and 55% of the quarter came from lumpy satellite deliveries. Kill line: A daily close below $4.83 unwinds the 2026-08-05 print-day close and returns price to the July downtrend that already took out $4.97; secondary, the 2026-08-21 CFO deadline passing with only an interim appointment while the space group gives back the post-Iridium M&A bid. --- ### SENS — Senseonics Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SENS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Only year-long implantable CGM, clinically de-risked at ADA 2026 with revenue +71.9% YoY TTM — and the tape has spent six weeks grinding back toward the $4.79 post-catalyst low ($5.11 on Jul 17). Accelerating fundamentals against a broken price structure; the Aug 5 Q2 print, with cash burn and dilution the swing factor, is the next real test. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.79 breaks the June post-ADA low and confirms the dilution-spiral leg lower; a secondary confirmation would be the Aug 5 Q2 print showing burn accelerating with no breakeven path. An upside flip requires reclaiming and holding the 50-day on expanding volume. --- ### SIDU — Sidus Space, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SIDU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Thesis: Post-print bounce fully unwound — $2.60 on 2026-08-14 to $2.21 on 2026-08-28 — with no company press release in between (IR page checked 2026-08-30). What is left is an asset argument: $166.5M cash and no term debt at 2026-06-30 against $583,096 of quarterly revenue, with price sitting on the $2.15 shelf and Transporter-18's October window still shown date-TBD. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.15 takes out the shelf the 2026-08-28 close of $2.21 is resting on and resumes the round-trip toward the pre-mania base; secondarily, Transporter-18 moving out of its October 2026 window without a firm replacement date leaves no dated hard-tech event on the calendar. --- ### SLN — Silence Therapeutics Plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SLN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: First-in-class siRNA re-rated on the 2026-08-10 SANRECO readout (88% response vs 19% placebo, n=48) and immediately funded with a ~$175M raise priced at $13.50/ADS; with Phase 3 not starting until 1H 2027, the equity now trades on zerlasiran partnering language and three September fireside chats rather than new data, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated clinical catalyst. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.50 — the 2026-08-11 offering price at which 12,962,963 ADSs were placed — breaks the post-readout shelf. Secondary: the 09-09/09-15/09-16 conference block passing with zerlasiran partnering language unchanged, leaving nothing company-dated before the 1H 2027 Phase 3 start. --- ### SMCI — Super Micro Computer, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMCI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Dilution leg has broken the story: the $7B raise cleared at $27.50 on June 11 and spot is $24.18, with a live $2B ATM as forward supply. DDR contract prices +32% QoQ crush a business guiding 8.2–8.4% gross margin. Falling knife under all major averages into the Aug 11 FY26 print — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 confirms the post-dilution breakdown extending toward the $19.48 52-week low; failure to reclaim the $27.50 offering price, or Q4 gross margin at or under the 8.2–8.4% guide on 2026-08-11, reinforces the value-trap read. --- ### SMMT — Summit Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMMT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Class-validation leg reaccelerating: Akeso's 2026-09-02 HARMONi-2 interim showed a statistically significant OS win over pembrolizumab monotherapy, and 2026-08-25's HARMONi-GI1 was the first Phase III win outside NSCLC. The 2026-09-04 close of $17.61 sits 33.3% under the $26.38 52-week high with RSI(14) at 78.5. The 2026-11-14 PDUFA is the dated binary; an undated HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS and an active ATM stand in front of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.00 gives back the 2026-08-25 to 2026-09-03 data leg and returns the stock to its pre-readout band; reinforced if HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS misses in H2 2026, or if the 2026-11-14 PDUFA returns a complete response letter or an extension. --- ### SMR — NuScale Power Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: SMR closed 2026-09-02 at $9.56, back near the top of the band between the 2026-08-18 close of $8.64 and the 2026-08-25 close of $9.81 — lifted by a sector-wide nuclear bid (Oklo +2.57%) rather than company news, a session after its own boron-oxide milestone drew a lower close. The only binary is an unsigned ENTRA1–TVA definitive PPA targeted for end-2026, with no company-dated event before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print and $750M of at-the-market supply authorised. Kill line: A daily close below $8.64 (the 2026-08-18 floor of the band held since mid-August) re-opens the 2026-07-20 close of $7.96 and the 2026-07-17 low of $7.21; secondary: management's end-2026 ENTRA1–TVA definitive PPA target passing unsigned, or the ~2026-11-04 Q3 10-Q disclosing at-the-market shares sold beneath the $11.11 average of the completed program. --- ### SNAP — Snap Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNAP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: The Q2 margin turn (revenue +19% YoY to $1.6B, adj EBITDA $250M, 2026-08-03) is priced by the sell side but not by the tape: the 2026-08-28 close of $5.43 is two cents off 2026-08-14 after three weeks of state-AG flow — Pennsylvania suing Snap and Meta agreeing to pay states up to $16.68B on 2026-08-26, Bonta naming Snap on 2026-08-27. No company-dated catalyst before the late-October bellwethers, leaving a maturing narrative that has to hold the $5 shelf on litigation headlines alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $5 round-trips the 2026-08-03 Q2 repricing and drops price under the entire $5.25–$8 target cluster set on 2026-08-04; secondarily, a Snap-specific state-AG settlement or litigation accrual disclosed in the next 10-Q, or Q3 revenue printing beneath the $1.70B low end of guidance. --- ### SPIR — Spire Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: The two largest awards of the cycle — EUMETSAT ~€4M on 2026-08-25 and a two-year $28M NOAA HyMS contract on 2026-08-26 — landed into a lower close: $13.17 on 08-28 versus $13.94 on 08-21, with RSI(14) falling from 63.8 to 39.7 in a week. The government weather-data leg is converting on paper while the bid behind it thins, leaving 2026-09-18 as the only dated company event inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 puts price under the entire August contract-news range and leaves the $15–16 June shelf unreclaimed. Secondary: 2026-09-18 passing with no close above $15, or an ATM or registered offering disclosed against the ~$92M cash line. --- ### TBI — Trueblue, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Emerging markets, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Deep-cyclical industrial staffer re-rated +140% off the $3.18 low on a staffing-demand recovery and a data-center/energy labor boom lifting PeopleReady +19% YoY. Still loss-making (Q1 net -$19.8M), margins compressed, and the industrial-staffing index has cooled from +10% to +2% YoY. The 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the profitability-inflection binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 forfeits the recovery leg off the $3.18 low; further confirmed if the 2026-08-04 Q2 print delivers another adjusted-EBITDA loss with gross margin missing the guided 21.1%–21.5%, or the industrial-staffing index turns negative YoY. --- ### TEM — Tempus AI, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Second-order re-rating on the 2026-08-19 Merck/Moderna INTerpath-001 win is now fully in sell-side language — three target actions between 08-31 and 09-02, topping at $80 — while price slid from $72.69 (08-21) to $64.62 (09-04) and ARK sold $15.6M on 09-01. The S-4 filed 2026-08-31 still leaves the Personalis vote date blank, leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 retraces the entire 2026-08-19 post-readout gap and returns price to the pre-catalyst shelf; secondary conditions — the S-4 going effective with a Personalis special-meeting date beyond Q4 2026, or an antitrust second request. --- ### TITN — Titan Machinery Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TITN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Titan Machinery’s farm-equipment recovery re-rating requires falling total inventory and preserved earnings guidance at its next quarterly report. A weekly close below $23 would invalidate the market thesis before confirmation. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 invalidates the cycle-bottom re-rating; independently, next-quarter total inventory above $931.5 million or a cut to fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17 million–$29 million breaks the operating recovery case. --- ### TSLA — Tesla, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: The 2026-09-03 Cybercab launch landed after the bell and delivered a website update rather than a disclosure: rides live in limited Austin areas via the Robotaxi app, no ride price, no operating fleet count, no livestream, guests under NDA. The $357.01→$376.37 advance priced anticipation, leaving a saturated narrative whose next hard number is the ~2026-10-02 Q3 delivery release. Kill line: A daily close below $357 gives back the entire 2026-09-03 event-day advance and puts price under the $356.09/$357.01 pre-event shelf; secondary condition is the ~2026-10-02 Q3 delivery release passing with no stated Cybercab operating fleet count and deliveries below Q2's 480,126. --- ### UPXI — Upexi, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UPXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Upexi’s Solana-discount recovery requires positive audited net assets and a Nasdaq bid-price cure. The September 28 annual-report checkpoint is provisional, while a weekly close below $1.00 invalidates the recovery structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.00 invalidates the recovery structure at the disclosed Nasdaq minimum-bid threshold; continued negative stockholders’ equity in the fiscal 2026 annual report independently defeats the fundamental case. --- ### UUUU — Energy Fuels Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UUUU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Nuclear & uranium Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Two sell-side target raises in consecutive sessions — HC Wainwright's $29.25 on 2026-09-01 and Cantor Fitzgerald's $33 reiteration on 2026-09-02 — moved the shares less than 1%, to a $14.29 close 48.4% under the 52-week high. With rare earths at roughly $0.1M of $25.108M Q2 revenue and White Mesa uranium paused to Q4-2026, the saturated leg has no company-dated release before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, and the $13.90 shelf separates a stall from a leg down. Kill line: A daily close below $13.90 breaks the shelf tested intraday near $14.00 on 2026-09-02 and opens the 2026-08-06 area near $12.90. Secondary: the ~2026-09-11 and ~2026-09-25 FINRA readings passing with the 20.51% float short unwinding and no daily close back above $15.14. --- ### VIAV — Viavi Solutions Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Networking-optical test theme still accelerating and the laggard test-and-measurement sleeve is finally re-rating: Susquehanna lifted its target to $66 (2026-07-01) and the small-cap-over-hyperscaler rotation flagged 2026-06-29 favors smaller infra names. But it's freshly diluted ($500M at $45, 2026-05-20) with no company event until the ~mid-August FQ4 print — a laggard-chase into a catalyst desert until it bases above the $45 offering shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $45.00 flags the diluted float failing to hold its May-2026 offering shelf. Secondary confirmation: NSE book-to-bill back under 1.0 on the ~mid-August FQ4 print, or the photonics leaders (LITE/COHR/EUV) rolling over on lower highs. --- ### VICR — Vicor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VICR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Operating numbers still inflecting (Q2 guide ~$142M, book-to-bill >2.0, backlog $300.6M) but the chart has broken: $237.62 on 2026-07-17 is ~38% off the $382.65 July high, with $271 and $300 both lost and relentless CEO 10b5-1 supply. The 2026-07-21 Q2 print is a binary one trading day out — the setup does not clear until a base forms. Kill line: A weekly close below $221 gives back the entire post-2026-05-26 guidance-raise re-rating and confirms the July $382.65 peak as a distribution top; a Q2 book-to-bill under 1.0 on 2026-07-21, or the power theme stepping down to saturated, would ratify it independently. --- ### VMI — Valmont Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VMI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Industrial power & grid Thesis: Beat-and-raise still being sold: after the 2026-07-21 print ($6.14 vs $5.75, FY26 guide lifted to $22.25–$23.50), shares closed 2026-08-28 at $476.28, 18.3% under the $582.78 52-week high, with the broken $520 shelf overhead and the $470 pre-Investor-Day floor directly beneath. Grid demand intact in the numbers, multiple compressing, and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-20 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $470 breaks the pre-Investor-Day range floor and confirms the 2026 grid re-rating in this name is still unwinding; secondary condition, the ~2026-10-20 Q3 print passing with the FY26 ceiling still $23.50 and no weekly close back above $520. --- ### VOR — Vor Biopharma Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VOR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Oncology & immunology, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Legacy-pivot re-rating is holding its post-print range while the flow behind it thins: $22.65 on 2026-08-28 versus $23.67 on 2026-08-07, with RSI(14) down from 64.6 to 45.1 and no company release since the 2026-08-11 Q2 print. UPSTREAM MG topline stays guided to 1H2027, leaving a maturing narrative whose only new information is an ATM that sold $48.4M into July strength. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 loses the post-print consolidation and returns price into the $19–$21 shelf that capped the tape through early July 2026; secondary condition: ATM sales disclosed in the Q3 10-Q above the $48.4M July pace, or any slip in the 1H2027 UPSTREAM MG topline guide. --- ### VSH — Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Cycle-turn re-rate has fully round-tripped: down ~46% from $69.47 to the high-$30s, now under the $50 June placement and below every covering analyst's target. Q1's 1.34 book-to-bill and $1.6B backlog were real but sit at ~35x forward into a broken tape. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether the cyclical recovery survives or the multiple keeps compressing. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 confirms the full round-trip of the cycle-turn re-rate and opens the pre-Q1 congestion in the high $20s; secondarily, a 2026-08-05 Q2 print with book-to-bill back under 1.0 or gross margin stalling at or below 22% breaks the volume-and-margin recovery outright. --- ### VSTS — Vestis Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, Consumer discretionary rotation, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Post-spin uniform-rental turnaround: Q3 FY26 (2026-08-11) put adjusted EBITDA margin at 12.2% vs 9.8% a year earlier and lifted the FY26 free-cash-flow guide to $160–170M, while revenue still fell 1.8% YoY and missed. The CEO's 2026-09-02 open-market purchase at $12.37 is the only fresh datapoint, and no company-dated catalyst lands before the ~December Q4 print, leaving a maturing story to drift inside a range. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 (loses the early-September shelf around the 2026-09-02 insider purchase at $12.37 and returns price to the pre-Q3 range); secondarily, a Q4/FY2026 report that lands under the affirmed $2.680–2.735B sales range or the $310–315M adjusted EBITDA guide. --- ### WEAV — Weave Communications, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEAV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Beaten-down vertical-SaaS front-office platform for healthcare SMBs, down ~36% YTD and basing off the $4.24 low, repositioning around AI-receptionist monetization (TrueLark, 2025). Still a ~17% grower with GAAP losses, so the re-rate is optionality not yet in the numbers; a reclaim of the $8.28 52-week high with AI-revenue proof is the trigger, and the ~Aug 6 Q2 print is the catalyst. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 breaks the recovery base off the April $4.24 low and voids the AI-monetization re-rating setup; a Q2 print (~Aug 6) showing revenue growth decelerating under 15% with no AI-revenue disclosure is the secondary break. --- ### XXI — Twenty One Capital, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: WATCHLIST Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The one re-rate catalyst just died: Tether's Strike–Elektron three-way merger was scrapped on 2026-07-21 and CEO Jack Mallers quit, dropping XXI to a fresh all-time low near $4.46. A leveraged-Bitcoin-treasury proxy stuck below 1.0x float mNAV can't run its accretive flywheel from record lows — the story is broken, not merely cheap. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.46 confirms fresh all-time-low continuation, with the Strike–Elektron re-rate dead and the treasury flywheel reversed below NAV; the avoid stance only flips to a probe on a weekly reclaim of the low-$6s 20-EMA zone alongside BTC holding a higher low above $70k. --- ### YSS — York Space Systems Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YSS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: WATCHLIST Themes: Space economy Thesis: Two Space Force selections — the 2026-08-18 NITE-STAR IDIQ pool and the 2026-08-25 Space Data Network Backbone award ($12M, one of five equal awards in a $60M pool) — landed and the tape still closed lower at $8.97 on 2026-08-28, a three-month price change of -69.9%. The broken roll-up narrative stays dead; what remains is a cash-and-backlog reset resting on the $8.86 post-guidance-cut shelf, with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.86 (the shelf printed after the 2026-08-13 guidance cut) confirms the 2026-08-18 and 2026-08-25 Space Force selections bought no bid; secondarily, an initial FY2027 outlook below the original FY2026 $545-595M range, or backlog falling again from $592.0M at the ~November Q3 print. --- ### PANW — Palo Alto Networks, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PANW/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: AI-security spend narrative accelerating with third-party confirmation: IBM missed Q2 ($17.2B vs $17.86B) on 2026-07-14 and blamed budget migration into Cybersecurity — PANW +6.4%, CRWD +10%, BUG +6% same session. New ATH close $357.53 (2026-07-06), 8% flush on 7/07-7/08 fully reclaimed, $359.39 on 2026-07-18. Cluster-confirmed continuation; 291x multiple is the risk, not the signal. Kill line: A daily close below $328 loses the 2026-07-08 higher low and turns the July advance into a failed breakout; a weekly close below $306 forfeits the 2026-06-26 breakout shelf and the rising 50-day line, confirming the cyber-megacap theme has flipped to distribution ahead of the 2026-08-24 print. --- ### SNOW — Snowflake Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNOW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The June digestion resolved upward, not downward — SNOW cleared the ~$244 June high and printed a fresh 52-week high at $284.99 before settling at $268.90 (2026-07-17). Q1 FY27 product revenue re-accelerated to +34% and the street is still chasing (RBC $313 on 2026-07-17, KeyBanc $325 on 2026-07-16, consensus $292.53). The continuation leg runs into a 5-week catalyst vacuum until the 2026-08-26 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $244 gives back the July breakout over the June swing high and returns price into the post-earnings range; secondary break: Databricks converts its $188B round (2026-07-17) into visible enterprise share loss, or the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print shows product growth back under +30% or NRR under ~120%. --- ### ATI — ATI Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Defense & aerospace Thesis: Titanium/superalloy aero-defense supplier digesting a June breakout above the reclaimed $183.30 ATH shelf: ~9% off the $204.09 high, RSI cooled to ~66, consensus PT $200.33 back above spot. Q2 lands 2026-08-06; peer CRS prints 2026-07-30 as a free read-through. maturing theme — the clean setup is a base or the post-print, not a chase into the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $183.30 converts the June breakout into a failure, opening air to the rising 50-day near $161; secondarily, a Q2 report 2026-08-06 (or CRS on 2026-07-30) that repeats Q1's shipment miss with the beat again carried by price/mix. --- ### GLW — Corning Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Corning’s fiber agreements support its AI infrastructure story, but Q3 revenue must confirm demand before a weekly close below $143. Confirmation requires core sales of at least $4.9 billion, July’s guidance floor, and Optical Communications growth of at least 20% year over year, the dossier’s analytical threshold. Kill line: A weekly close below $143 ends the recovery thesis; Q3 2026 core sales below the $4.9 billion July guidance floor or Optical Communications growth below the analytical threshold of 20% year over year independently breaks the operating case. --- ### GLXY — Galaxy Digital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLXY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Galaxy Digital's data-center revaluation depends on Q3 Helios rent confirming its approximately $80 million quarterly leasing forecast and margin above 90%, issued on 2026-08-05. Confirmation must precede a weekly close below $24; the September 9 close of $25.15 leaves the recovery unconfirmed. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 breaks the September recovery, beneath the $24.06 market close on 2026-09-02. Secondary invalidation: Galaxy withdraws its approximately $80 million quarterly Helios leasing forecast or reports a Q3 project-level adjusted EBITDA margin at or below 90%. --- ### NBIS — Nebius Group N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBIS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-23 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Thesis: GPU-neocloud narrative re-accelerated after NVIDIA disclosed a 9.3% stake (7/20) and PT raises followed (Northland $410, Baird initiates Outperform $250); Alphabet's 7/22 "demand outpaces capacity" answers the Meta-Compute bear case. The ~8/05 Q2 print is the binary that confirms the ARR ramp. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 loses the 7/18 low ($164.31) and the last shelf beneath the June breakout, reopening the $140s and confirming the Meta-Compute de-rating; a secondary break is the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print showing core AI-cloud ARR growth decelerating below the ~50% QoQ pace set in Q1. --- ### RIOT — Riot Platforms, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RIOT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Riot Platforms’ AI-leasing thesis depends on binding project financing and resolution of its interim borrowing before maturity. The June-quarter filing gives an extendable October 15 deadline, while a later reported December 31 date requires reconciliation; a weekly close below $18 invalidates the market case. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 invalidates the recovery thesis; company disclosure that the $573 million interim facility remains unpaid and unextended at its applicable contractual maturity separately breaks the financing case. --- ### WTI — W&T Offshore, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WTI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: W&T Offshore’s oil-to-cash recovery case now tests a daily close at or above the market’s $4.89 trailing-year high before a daily close below $3.55 invalidates it. The 2026-09-09 close of $4.06 satisfies the prior $4.01 recovery hurdle; the higher objective is a new extension. Kill line: A daily close below $3.55 invalidates the recovery extension beneath the market’s $3.57 adjusted close of 2026-08-28. --- ### WULF — TeraWulf Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WULF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: TeraWulf’s AI-landlord conversion turns on CB-4 beginning to earn rent in September 2026 before a weekly close below $14.50. The company release index checked on 2026-09-10 provides no delivery confirmation, leaving the operating outcome unresolved. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.50 breaks the market threshold published on 2026-09-09; a company disclosure postponing CB-4 first-hall rental commencement beyond September 2026 separately invalidates the delivery timing case. --- ### ARM — Arm Holdings plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Data-center royalty doubled YoY for a second quarter, but Q2 FY27 royalty growth is guided to ~13% against 22% delivered. No Arm-specific disclosure has landed since 2026-07-29, so the bid is set by third parties — BofA's 2026-08-13 server-CPU TAM raise, then Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print. Vendor consensus $290.52 sits ~4% above the 2026-08-14 close of $279.44. Kill line: A daily close below $255 gives up the midpoint of the 2026-08-04 gap and the densest post-print target cluster (JPMorgan, Guggenheim and Needham all struck there on 2026-07-30), leaving $239.06 as the next reference. Secondary: Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print carrying hyperscaler capex-digestion language. --- ### BFLY — Butterfly Network, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BFLY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing story got marquee validation — Midjourney's up-to-$74M/5yr full-body scanner on 40 Ultrasound-on-Chip modules (2026-06-18) plus 2nd partner Aleph Neuro (2026-06-25). Fundamentals still accelerating, but the June double has stalled and news thinned; a binary Q2 print (~early Aug) is now the next input and the easy momentum leg is spent. Kill line: secondary: a Q2 print below the $27M guide low end or a cut FY range, or continued insider distribution with no third Embedded license as social velocity flips to saturated. --- ### COHR — Coherent Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Coherent’s AI-optics recovery requires a named PhotonLink customer and production timing at the 2026-09-21 launch. Those disclosures and a subsequent weekly close above $281.86 complete the case before a weekly close below $264 invalidates it; missing launch disclosures also break the commercial premise. Kill line: A weekly close below $264 breaks the September recovery beneath the market’s 2026-09-03 close of $264.41; the 2026-09-21 launch failing to disclose both a named PhotonLink customer and production timing also invalidates the near-term commercial case. --- ### HUT — Hut 8 Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-datacenter-landlord re-rate is now financed fact ($4.25B IG notes 6/4, ~$16.8B contracted backlog), but the momentum leg rolled from ~$127 to ~$105 as peers WULF/IREN captured the marquee Anthropic tenant deals (7/6) and crypto weakened. maturing, not accelerating — needs its own named-tenant catalyst or a base reclaim before the next leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $98 unwinds the AI-landlord re-rate back toward miner multiples; confirmation if the July basing shelf breaks with no named marquee-tenant deal to re-anchor the story and cohort leadership stays with peers (WULF/IREN) into weakening BTC. --- ### INTC — Intel Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Funded legacy-pivot leg is holding the $101.65 pre-announcement shelf by under a dollar after the 2026-08-14 close of $102.50; CEO Tan's Form 4 (105,263 sh at $95.00) is the only fresh company datapoint in a week of 13F-derived coverage. The binary inside the window is 2026-08-27, when transfer restrictions lapse on the registered Commerce stake. Kill line: A daily close below $99 hands back the entire post-offering reclaim of the $101.65 pre-announcement shelf and re-opens the unfilled 2026-08-03/08-04 gap toward $91.68; secondarily, 2026-08-27 passing with a marketed secondary launched off the Commerce resale shelf. --- ### KYMR — Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KYMR/ Conviction: NONE · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-02 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Oral STAT6 degrader (KT-621) re-rated on early BROADEN2 enrollment (6/25) and the $10.9B AbbVie–Apogee read-through, but the analyst upgrade cycle topped with RBC's 7/13 downgrade to neutral and the binary topline is 2H-2026 — a maturing, stretched theme structurally supported on a pullback to the $100 shelf rather than into the catalyst gap. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the post-BROADEN2 breakout base; secondary confirmation if the I&I/derm M&A theme goes quiet (no follow-on bid after AbbVie–Apogee) alongside a second analyst downgrade following RBC's 7/13 cut. --- ### LRCX — Lam Research Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRCX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-18 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The WFE/AI-memory capex trade that ran Lam +119% YTD into June has rolled into a group-wide correction — the worst month for chip stocks since 2008, memory momentum broken (Micron/SanDisk). The ~2026-07-29 FQ4 print is now the binary: it either re-accelerates the WFE order narrative or unwinds the mid-50x re-rating. A fresh entry means paying up into a broken tape days ahead of that binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 loses the rising 20-week EMA and the post-Micron breakout base; a 2026 WFE guide cut below ~$135B on a DRAM/NAND pricing rollover, or the theme flipping to saturated, then confirms the order-book break. --- ### MP — MP Materials Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: MP Materials' contracted rare-earth recovery needs Q4 2026 commercial magnet shipments to General Motors and a weekly close above $60.17. A weekly close below $50 or shipments delayed beyond that quarter invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 invalidates the recovery thesis; management delaying initial Independence commercial magnet shipments to General Motors beyond Q4 2026, or confirming that none began within that quarter, independently breaks the delivery premise. --- ### NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVDA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: July de-rating unresolved and now compounded by capex scrutiny — Alphabet's first cash-flow-negative quarter since 2004 and Intel's punished $20B capex plan raise the question of whether hyperscaler spend slows. Jensen's open-weight-AI campaign is the TAM-expansion counter, but the mega-cap capex prints (~Jul 29–31) that pre-trade NVDA are the near-term binary; the setup is a bottom-fish on a still-de-rating theme. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 converts July's multiple compression into a durable de-rating rather than a summer reset; secondary confirmation if the mega-cap capex prints (~2026-07-29–31) guide capex flat-to-lower or the SOXX-vs-IGV divergence extends into August. --- ### ONTO — Onto Innovation Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONTO/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: June breakout fully round-tripped: ATH $386.46 (6/30) to $279.85 (7/17), now below the 50-DMA at $294.49. The tell is non-participation — TSMC raised capex to $60-64B and ASML guided up twice on 7/15-16, and ONTO closed the week at its early-July low. Broken leg diverging from an accelerating theme; the 2026-08-06 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $279 breaks the two-touch shelf ($279.93 low on 2026-07-07, $279.85 close on 2026-07-17) and opens $253; secondary: a Q2 print on 2026-08-06 that misses the 56-56.5% gross-margin guide or the $1.65-1.73 non-GAAP EPS range, or any top-three-customer HBM capex push-out. --- ### PURR — Hyperliquid Strategies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PURR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-21 Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The gamma-squeeze/index leg is over: PURR is -42% from its 6/1 high of $11.62 to $6.68 (7/17), through the $7.70 shelf, and now trades at roughly 0.78x the value of its 17.6M HYPE stack — a treasury premium that has flipped to a discount, disabling accretive issuance. Cantor's 7/1 PT hike to $18.40 marked the bounce high. Aug 12 print is the next real mark. Kill line: A daily close below $6.30 loses the July base and the ~0.75x-NAV floor, opening the $5 handle. Secondary confirmations of the break: HYPE losing $50, or the 2026-08-12 print showing no HYPE added since the 2026-02-11 buy, which ends the treasury-accumulation story entirely. --- ### QCOM — QUALCOMM Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QCOM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-05-27 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The data-center re-rating already failed: QCOM spiked to a 52-week high of $259.92 on the ~2026-06-24 Investor Day $15B-by-2029 guide, then gave back ~34% in 17 sessions to $171.78 as Hold downgrades and Apple modem-attrition math reasserted. Price is in a confirmed downtrend into a 2026-07-29 print that must quantify data-center bookings against a shrinking Apple line. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 loses the 2026-07-16/17 washout shelf and leaves little structure above the $121.99 52-week floor, confirming the post-Investor-Day move as a full retrace rather than a base; secondary break is the 2026-07-29 Q3 print passing without a quantified data-center booking or backlog number. --- ### RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RKLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Rocket Lab's stabilisation case rests on operating growth overcoming acquisition-financing uncertainty. Iridium approval on 2026-09-24 followed by a weekly close above the September 4 reference of $64.26 confirms the narrow case only if a weekly close below $60 has not occurred first. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 invalidates the stabilisation thesis. A failed or postponed Iridium vote on 2026-09-24 separately contradicts the published catalyst timetable. --- ### SHLS — Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-26 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-18 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Solar/BESS EBOS name re-rated as a 2nd-order AI-datacenter-power play on a record $758M Q1 backlog and the multi-GW ON.energy deal; price reclaimed the $10 pivot but consensus PT sits at spot (~$10.63 vs $10.02), so the confirmed 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that either re-accelerates backlog or reaffirms the range. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 re-breaks the reclaimed May base and confirms the late-June breakdown; secondarily, an Aug 4 Q2 print with backlog slipping from the $758M Q1 record, or the AI-power bid rotating to gas/SMR/nuclear. --- ### SYRE — Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-30 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: Two of three lead binaries (SPY001, SPY002 anti-TL1A) printed potential best-in-class; the stock absorbed a ~$399.7M director-fund block sale and sits back near its ~$102 ATH (~$95). Next legs — SPY003 IL-23 Part A (guided mid-2026, overdue) and SPY072 RA topline (accelerated to Q3) — are the near-term binaries. Platform de-risked, but distribution flags plus ~1:1 R/R to $100–135 targets argue probe-only into an all-time high. Kill line: A weekly close below $84 surrenders the post-SPY002-print breakout base and the $85.31 level the June director-fund block cleared at; secondary: SPY003 Part A or SPY072 RA reads out weak/with a class-safety signal, or a superior competing anti-TL1A Phase 3 from Merck tulisokibart or Roche RVT-3101. --- ### TNGX — Tango Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Post-data digestion, not acceleration: the 92% ORR combo print is fully paid for and the tape has faded from $32.90 to ~$27.7, below the $30.00 June secondary. Sell-side keeps marking up (JPM Overweight $46 on 7/15, Mizuho $40 on 7/17) into a falling price — a divergence that historically resolves toward price. Next hard data is ESMO in October. Kill line: secondary condition: the 2026-08-04 Q2 update fails to put a dated Phase 3 initiation on the calendar, or the $100M Leerink ATM activates below the $30.00 offering price. --- ### TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-10-08 Thesis: Q2 (7/16) beat every line and lifted FY26 growth guide above 40%, but the capex raise to $60–64B and a 2026-07-26 Samsung–Broadcom $200B foundry pact reopened the monopoly question. Theme cooled to maturing; price recovered to ~$415, still below the $438 pre-earnings pivot. Strength unproven until a higher low or a $438 reclaim prints. Kill line: A weekly close below $380 turns the capex-anxiety pullback into a trend reversal and loses the May consolidation shelf; secondary break if a top-5 custom-silicon customer confirms 2nm volume to Samsung under the 2026-07-26 Broadcom pact, or the ~2026-08-10 monthly revenue rolls under +40% YoY. --- ### VRT — Vertiv Holdings Co URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Vertiv's grid-power expansion supports a recovery case requiring Q3 revenue to meet guidance and a weekly close above $285.78. The September 9 close of $262.89 leaves confirmation outstanding; a weekly close below $240 or Q3 revenue below the July 29 guidance floor invalidates the case. Kill line: A weekly close below $240 invalidates the September recovery thesis; independently, Q3 2026 revenue below the $3,650 million guidance floor issued on 2026-07-29 breaks the operating case. --- ### WEST — Westrock Coffee Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: RECENTLY_EXITED Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Westrock Coffee’s Conway expansion supports a cash-generation revaluation, but repeat cash flow remains unproven. Confirmation requires positive third-quarter 2026 free cash flow, maintained annual guidance and a weekly close above the historical $8.04 reference before a weekly close below $7.68 invalidates the price thesis. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.68 breaches the 2026-09-03 closing-low reference and ends the price thesis. Negative third-quarter 2026 free cash flow or a reduction in the $90.0 million–$100.0 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook separately invalidates the operating case. --- ### ALOT — AstroNova, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALOT/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations Thesis: Closed situation: Arcline's $29.00 all-cash take-private completed 2026-08-26, shares converted to cash and Nasdaq trading ended, with Nasdaq's Form 25-NSE filed the same day and no Form 15 on EDGAR as of 2026-09-06. The final $28.99 close is a settlement mark, not a discovered level — the narrative is dead by consummation, and no listed instrument remains. Kill line: A daily close below $28.00 in ALOT common stock, which would require Nasdaq trading to resume after the 2026-08-26 cash conversion at $29.00 and the same-day Form 25-NSE removal from listing. Absent a rescinded merger or a relisting, the series generates no further prints. --- ### AVNS — Avanos Medical, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVNS/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Closed record, not a live setup: AIP's $25.00/share all-cash take-private completed 2026-07-27 (EV ~$1.272B), AVNS left the NYSE that day, and the 2026-08-06 Form 15-12G — one holder of record — suspended SEC reporting. Nothing is dated inside 30 days. The only per-share number still open is the DGCL §262 appraisal window, 120 days from the 2026-07-27 effective date, and no petition had surfaced publicly as of 2026-09-06. Kill line: A daily close below $25.00 cannot print: regular-way AVNS trading ended with the 2026-07-27 completion of the $25.00/share AIP merger, and the Form 15-12G filed 2026-08-06 ended Exchange Act reporting. Only a resumed listing under the symbol, or an appraisal ruling at a value other than $25.00, would reopen a gradeable record. --- ### CBZ — CBIZ, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBZ/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Completion-and-clock trade now: the 2026-09-04 close of $54.85 sits $0.15 under signed $55.00 all-cash terms, in from $0.34 on 2026-08-21, after the go-shop lapsed 2026-08-27 and the same-day PREM14A disclosed 24 parties contacted, six NDAs, two management meetings and no competing proposal. The only dated item inside 30 days is the HSR waiting period, expected to expire 11:59pm ET 2026-09-10. Kill line: A daily close below $52 — a discount to the $55.00 cash terms wider than roughly 5% — would mark the market repricing completion odds rather than timing; --- ### CCRN — Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCRN/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Thesis: Terminated rather than live: the Knox Lane take-private closed 2026-07-21 at $13.25 cash, Nasdaq filed Form 25 that day, and the Form 15-12G/A of 2026-07-31 certifies approximately one holder of record. EDGAR has recorded no filing for the CIK in the 37 days since, so the wind-down is complete and any CCRN bar dated after 2026-07-20 is stale vendor data, not a market. Kill line: A daily close below $13.25 cannot print: trading was suspended before the 2026-07-21 open, Nasdaq filed Form 25 that day, and each share converted into the right to receive $13.25 cash. The Form 15-12G/A of 2026-07-31 ended reporting, and EDGAR shows no filing for CIK 0001141103 since. --- ### CNTA — Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNTA/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-10-04 Thesis: Closed cash-plus-CVR takeout; nothing trades. Lilly's UK scheme ($38.00 cash plus a non-transferable CVR of up to $9.00) went effective 2026-06-24, Form 15-12G dated 2026-07-06. Since the last note the only motion is registry-side: NCT07598708 (cleminorexton, Phase 2/Phase 3) still lists Recruiting, 222 enrolled, last updated 2026-08-11 — CVR-relevant, unexpressible in this symbol, leaving a dead narrative whose next dated marker is the ~2026-10-04 deregistration effectiveness. Kill line: A daily close below $38.00 cannot print in this symbol: the final Nasdaq ADS session was 2026-06-23 at $40.50 and the Form 15-12G deregistration is dated 2026-07-06, so no cleminorexton milestone under the non-transferable up-to-$9.00 CVR reopens exposure here. --- ### CRNX — Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRNX/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: The settlement claim resolved: the Vertex merger became effective 2026-09-01 at $85.00 a share in cash, Nasdaq trading was suspended before that day's open and a Form 25 was requested. The final print is $84.95 on 2026-08-31; shares are cancelled, leaving paying-agent mechanics rather than a tradable narrative. Kill line: A daily close below $85.00 printing in CRNX common stock after the 2026-09-01 effective time — that would require the Nasdaq trading suspension and Form 25 request disclosed in the closing 8-K to have been reversed. Secondary: no Form 25 on file and no Form 15 following it by end-September. --- ### FBRX — Forte Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBRX/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The spread paid as contracted: argenx reported 19,894,879 shares tendered (~87.13%) at the 2026-08-26 expiration, completed the back-end merger at $77.00 cash on 2026-08-27 and ended the Nasdaq listing. The final print was $76.99, a cent under the cap, leaving a dead narrative with no security left to price. Kill line: A daily close below $77.00 printing on FBRX at all — the series ends at $76.99 on 2026-08-26 and the 2026-08-27 argenx release states the common stock is no longer listed or traded on Nasdaq, so any such close would require the completed merger and delisting to be undone. --- ### GBTG — Global Business Travel Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GBTG/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Take-private in its last mile: stockholders adopted the $9.50 Long Lake merger on 2026-08-03 and the 2026-09-04 close of $9.48 leaves $0.02 gross against the unaffected $5.93. Only undated offshore clearances stand before the 2026-11-02 outside date, and EDGAR shows no company filing of any type since the 2026-08-25 Form 4, leaving a saturated situation whose remaining return is paid in elapsed time rather than in price. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 — a discount to the $9.50 cash terms wider than 5%, abandoning the shelf held since 2026-05-04. Secondarily: an Item 1.02 8-K terminating the merger, an 8-K disclosing an in-depth or Phase 2 regulatory review, or the outside date extended to 2027-02-02 with no clearance path articulated. --- ### KALV — KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALV/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-20 Thesis: Resolved cash takeout, not a live security: Chiesi's $27.00/share acquisition closed 2026-06-11 and KALV stopped trading on Nasdaq that morning. An EDGAR check on 2026-09-05 shows no issuer filing since the 2026-08-14 Schedule 13G/A amendments, leaving only the Rule 12g-4 registration termination around 2026-09-20 — a dead narrative whose frozen $27.00 print keeps surfacing on momentum screens with no venue behind it. Kill line: A daily close below $27.00 on a real venue — which cannot print while the stock is delisted: KALV ceased Nasdaq trading before the open on 2026-06-11 at the $27.00 cash consideration and filed Form 15-12G on 2026-06-22, with Rule 12g-4 termination effective ~2026-09-20. Only a rescinded merger plus a US relisting reopens the level. --- ### LPRO — Open Lending Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LPRO/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, M&A & special situations Thesis: Terminal and now deregistered: ANV's $3.15 all-cash tender took ~85.65% by 2026-07-27, the §251(h) merger closed 2026-07-30, Form 25-NSE went in the same day and Form 15-12G on 2026-08-10. Last public close $3.14 on 2026-07-29. Nothing since has reopened it — no topping bid, no docketed appraisal, no resumed quote — leaving a dead narrative whose only open item is the §262 appraisal window ending ~2026-11-27. Kill line: A daily close below $3.15 can no longer print on this symbol: the common last traded at $3.14 on 2026-07-29, the §251(h) merger closed 2026-07-30, Form 25-NSE was filed the same day and Form 15-12G on 2026-08-10. Only a Delaware §262 appraisal petition docketed before ~2026-11-27 could put a per-share number other than $3.15 on record. Ended by completion, not by price. --- ### NUVL — Nuvalent, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NUVL/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: No tradable NUVL equity exists: GSK's $124 all-cash deal completed 2026-07-15, trading was suspended, and a Form 15-12G filed 2026-07-27 lists an approximate holder-of-record count of one. The 2026-09-18 zidesamtinib PDUFA still on some calendars is void — the FDA approved Jideytro on 2026-07-22 — leaving a dead narrative whose next dated event, the 2026-11-27 neladalkib decision, prices inside GSK. Kill line: A daily close below $124 on a US exchange — which would require NUVL trading to resume after the 2026-07-15 suspension, the requested Form 25 and the 2026-07-27 Form 15 — would signal the fixed cash consideration or the Section 251(h) back-end merger failed. A Delaware appraisal award above $124 would reopen the valuation argument without creating a tradeable line. --- ### OLPX — Olaplex Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OLPX/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-05-05 Thesis: Closed by event and unchanged since: Henkel's all-cash takeout completed 2026-07-07 at $2.06 per share, Nasdaq delisting and a Form 15-12G followed, and Henkel's IR calendar now dates the first consolidated period containing the brand to the 2026-11-10 nine-month statement. The last completed bar was $2.07 on 2026-07-06. No listed security, no float, no gradeable tape — a historical record with a dead narrative, not a candidate. Kill line: The read changes only if a listed successor security appears or Henkel's 2026-11-10 nine-month statement breaks out brand-level Olaplex revenue. --- ### PAYO — Payoneer Global Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAYO/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Merger-arb into a dated gate: the 2026-09-14 special meeting is eight days out, HSR early termination was granted 2026-07-28, and the 2026-09-04 close of $7.17 leaves $0.23 to Nuvei's $7.40 all-cash offer — the tightest spread since signing. Upside is contractually capped against roughly 28% of air to the $5.14 pre-rumor close, a saturated setup whose only remaining discretionary event is the vote. Kill line: A daily close below $6.75 loses the pre-signing shelf and widens the discount to Nuvei's $7.40 past 9%, consistent with the market handicapping a deal break; secondarily, the 2026-09-14 special meeting adjourning without adoption or missing the majority-of-outstanding-voting-power threshold, or an 8-K disclosing a regulatory denial or an outside-date extension. --- ### TBRG — TruBridge, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBRG/ Conviction: SUPREME · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Thesis: Closed and deregistered — the IKS Health merger paid $26.25/share cash at the 2026-07-09 effective time, Form 25 the same day, Form 15-12G on 2026-07-24, and the adjusted series stops at $26.24 on 2026-07-08. The only live thread is a plaintiff-firm investigation (releases 2026-05-26, 07-10, 08-21) that as of 2026-09-06 shows no court, docket, class period or lead-plaintiff deadline, and it rides with former holders rather than any tradable line. Kill line: A daily close below $26.25 cannot print: the adjusted series ends 2026-07-08 at $26.24, shares converted to cash at the 2026-07-09 effective time, and Form 15-12G followed on 2026-07-24. Only a Form 8-A or exchange listing notice for a US-listed successor under CIK 1169445 would reopen a price file here. --- ### ABVX — Abivax SA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABVX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Nine weeks of silence since the 2026-07-30 FDA pre-NDA alignment ended in stabilisation rather than a lower low — the 2026-09-04 close of $114.79 with RSI(14) back to 38.8 from 23.7 on 2026-08-28, still under the $125.00 placement price. The calendar has re-dated: 2026-09-21 H1 results, then UEG Week Barcelona 2026-10-17, with the H1 print the venue where late-Q4-2026 NDA guidance is reaffirmed or softened. Kill line: A weekly close below $96 completes the round-trip of the 2026-06-30 +34.2% gap and breaks the regulatory-timeline thesis; secondary confirmation would be late-Q4-2026 NDA guidance restated as 2027 or left unquantified at the 2026-09-21 H1 results. --- ### AKTS — Aktis Oncology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKTS/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-initiation follow-through arrived late: after Wedbush ($35) and BMO ($37) took the covering cohort to five on 2026-08-19, the tape moved from $24.07 on 2026-08-21 to $25.78 on 2026-08-28, clearing the three-week $24 shelf. Five sessions is a thin sample, and with Q3 results not due until roughly November the maturing narrative has no company-dated catalyst before then. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 takes out the 2026-07-30 low print of $22.39 and reclassifies the range as distribution, saying the five-house sponsorship cohort failed to clear post-lock-up supply; secondarily, any covering house publishing a target under $30, or the Q3 update softening Q1 2027 NECTINIUM-2 timing. --- ### ARIS — Aris Mining Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARIS/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Bitcoin miners Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Two-asset Colombian gold producer earning $1,767/oz Segovia AISC against a $4,450/oz realized price (Q2, reported 2026-07-29); the leg being bought is the volume step toward ~500 koz/yr, gated on the 5,000 tpd Marmato CIP plant delivering first gold in Q4 2026, with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-06 Q3 production release. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.50 cuts through the bulk of the three-month advance; separately, a Q3 update (~2026-10-06 est.) that pushes Marmato first gold out of Q4 2026 or revises 2026 guidance under 300 koz breaks the volume-step leg on its own. --- ### ARX — Accelerant Holdings URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Fixed-price take-private: $20.25 all-cash from Thoma Bravo, with the 2026-09-04 close of $19.88 leaving a $0.37 gross spread on an insurance-regulatory calendar guided to H1 2027. The spread has tightened from $0.66 on 2026-08-21 on an empty tape — no proxy or 13E-3 yet on EDGAR — and the go-shop expires 2026-09-22, closing the only contractual route above $20.25. Kill line: A daily close below $18.25, a discount to the $20.25 cash consideration far wider than any level held since the 2026-08-13 signing, marks repriced completion odds; a termination 8-K, or a proxy framing the timetable around the extended 2027-11-13 outside date, would confirm the break. --- ### CLSK — CleanSpark, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Spring's binary resolved bullish: CleanSpark signed a $6.6B, 20-year Georgia data-center lease (2026-07-14) with an unnamed "global technology company," converting the BTC-miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot from speculation into contracted revenue; sell-side chased PTs to $23–26 within 48h. The leg is the re-rate of a proven pivot, with fiscal Q3 (~2026-08-05) the first read on ramp speed. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.00 fills the 2026-07-14 lease-announcement gap and returns the stock to its pre-signing $16–17 range, un-pricing the re-rate; a fiscal Q3 print (~2026-08-05) showing lease revenue fully back-end-loaded, or the AI-datacenter theme rolling to saturated, would independently break the leg. --- ### ELE — Elemental Royalty Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELE/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Post-EMX royalty roll-up still compounding: Q2 2026 revenue $23.8M vs $9.1M a year earlier, guidance affirmed at 17,000–21,000 GEOs while gold traded near $4,608/oz on 2026-08-28 against a $4,500/oz guidance assumption. The 2026-08-11 print is spent and momentum has reset — RSI(14) 66.2 at the $21.52 close on 2026-08-28 versus 88.5 a week earlier — leaving the Vizsla Royalties closing inside Q3 2026 as the next dated leg of a maturing narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.00 ends the shelf built after the 2026-08-11 Q2 release; secondarily, the Vizsla Royalties arrangement failing to close by 2026-09-30, or a 2026 GEO guidance cut under the 17,000 low end. --- ### ESPR — Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ESPR/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Managed care & health services Thesis: Resolved and off the tape: the ARCHIMED take-private closed 2026-07-13 at $3.16 cash plus a non-transferable CVR of up to $100M, and Esperion filed a Form 15-12G on 2026-07-23 to suspend Exchange Act reporting. The last listed close was $3.18 on 2026-07-10 and no bar has printed since. The disclosure channel shuts with the Rule 12g-4 90-day clock around 2026-10-21, leaving a private milestone tail running to 2030. Kill line: A daily close below $3.16 can no longer print: the shares were cancelled into cash on 2026-07-13, Nasdaq was asked to file Form 25 the same day, and the Form 15-12G followed on 2026-07-23. Only a new Nasdaq or NYSE listing of an Esperion equity security would restore a gradeable tape. --- ### GH — Guardant Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GH/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Carelon's 2026-09-01 decision to cover Shield from 2026-11-15 lifts stated reach to ~90M lives (~75% of eligible) — the payer datapoint the story needed — yet the close was $161.41 on 2026-09-04 versus $161.50 on 2026-08-28. FY26 guidance raised twice into $1.340–1.360B, with a $245.2M stayed judgment and an undisclosed-size shelf unpriced against it. The 2026-09-15 fireside is the only dated venue before Q3, leaving a maturing narrative with real news and a bid that has stopped widening. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 forfeits the 3 June breakout shelf on which the July–August re-rate was built. Secondary: the 2026-09-15 fireside passing with no Shield volume, reimbursement-rate or channel datapoint, or a shelf takedown priced at a discount to the prevailing market. --- ### HNI — HNI Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HNI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Steelcase cost-synergy ramp is still the entire earnings story — FY2026 guide raised 2026-07-30 to 20–25% non-GAAP EPS growth on 0.1% organic sales. Price has built a three-week shelf, $48.86 on 2026-08-14 to $49.66 on 2026-09-04, 3.0% under the $51.22 high, while the four-name target panel has not been refreshed since 2026-05-07 and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 hands back the post-2026-07-30 re-rating leg and returns price toward the pre-print $39–41 chop; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-27 est.) that walks back the mid-to-high-20s YoY non-GAAP EPS growth framing or shows Workplace Furnishings orders below the +5% YoY Q2 pace. --- ### ITGR — Integer Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ITGR/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Signed-deal instrument since 2026-08-03: KKR's $127.00 all-cash agreement leaves $1.67 above the 2026-08-28 close of $125.33. Four weeks after signing, no merger proxy is on file and no HSR filing date has been disclosed, so a year-end 2026 closing guide rests on paperwork that has not begun to arrive, against a 2027-05-02 outside date. Kill line: A daily close below $118 — more than a 7% discount to the $127.00 cash consideration — marks the market repricing completion odds; an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request, or a merger proxy guiding closing into H1 2027 rather than year-end 2026, would corroborate. --- ### MKTX — MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKTX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: ICE's $167.00 all-cash deal (signed 2026-07-30) leaves MKTX trading purely as a spread: $167.00 less the 2026-08-28 close of $162.72 is $4.28 gross, in from $4.89 a week earlier. ICE's $3.75B bond pricing on 2026-08-11 took the financing leg out. With no preliminary merger proxy on file, HSR is the only live variable and the narrative is maturing against a fixed ceiling. Kill line: A daily close below $155 widens the gap to the $167.00 cash price to $12.00 — completion odds repricing rather than a longer clock. Secondary condition: an HSR second request disclosed before the preliminary merger proxy is filed, or the $0.78 dividend not paid as declared on 2026-09-02. --- ### MMED — MiniMed Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMED/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Q1 FY2027 on 2026-09-01 turned the carve-out story from re-rate into acceleration: net sales $843M vs $827.065M consensus, +15.8% organic against 8.7% the prior quarter, FY2027 organic guide lifted to ~10.5%, GAAP EPS at break-even, and eight desks moved targets to $26-28 within two sessions. What stays undated is the separation itself — Medtronic still holds 90.03% and calls a split-off "preferred" with no final decision reached. Kill line: A weekly close below $20.50 surrenders the 2026-09-01 post-print gap and the August shelf built on the prior $20.48 high; secondary: a cut to the ~10.5% FY2027 organic guide or ~16% adjusted-EBITDA margin at the Q2 print, or Medtronic settling on a pro-rata spin into the ~10% float instead of the preferred split-off. --- ### MRX — Marex Group plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRX/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: M&A & special situations, Crypto exchanges & financials, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Roll-up compounder in clean momentum continuation: the sell-side is now chasing price, with KBW $80, Barclays $76 and Piper $75 targets (Jul 9-15) leapfrogging the old $60 consensus, while the Bright Point clearing bolt-on (2026-07-09) keeps the quarterly M&A flywheel turning. Q2 print (~early Aug) is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 loses the June breakout base and round-number shelf reclaimed above the prior $58.62 high; secondarily a Helikon/CVC/BXC secondary-placement announcement, or a Q2 print (~early Aug) with organic growth below ~15% YoY or PBT margin under ~20% as commodity vol mean-reverts. --- ### OGN — Organon & Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OGN/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Deal-pinned arbitrage with no discretionary leg left: the $14.00 all-cash Sun Pharma merger was approved by holders 2026-07-23, and the 2026-09-04 close of $13.78 leaves $0.22 gross into a stated early-2027 completion against a 2027-01-26 outside date. No dated regulatory disclosure has landed since 2026-08-21, leaving a maturing situation that pays only spread compression; a termination reprices toward the $6.36–$6.90 unaffected area. Kill line: A daily close below $13.00 breaks the post-vote shelf and widens the gross spread past 7% on a shareholder-approved, fully financed all-cash deal; secondary confirmation would be an 8-K disclosing termination, an outside-date or price amendment, an in-depth non-US competition review, or a national-security mitigation agreement — repricing toward the $6.36–$6.90 unaffected area. --- ### ONC — BeOne Medicines Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONC/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Two 2026-08-31 catalysts — a statistically significant OS win in HERIZON-GEA-01 and a US agreement exempting BeOne from Section 232 pharma tariffs — landed without producing a new high: the 2026-09-04 close of $358.26 is 5.1% under the $377.47 52-week high. BRUKINSA US compounding at +31% YoY is intact, but the narrative is maturing, with no company-dated event carrying a number before the November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $326 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance and the late-July consolidation shelf; secondary: the Q4 2026 presentation of HERIZON-GEA-01 IA2 showing no OS separation for the TEVIMBRA-containing arm, or the FY26 guide merely reaffirmed at $6.6–6.8B in November. --- ### P — Everpure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/P/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Beat-and-raise landed on 2026-08-26 — FY2027 revenue guided to $5.03B–$5.07B from $4.41B–$4.51B, EPS $0.70 vs $0.58 consensus — and the tape sold it: the 2026-09-04 close of $99.51 sits 15.8% under the 08-14 high with RSI(14) at 32.6. The design-win narrative is saturated; what is dated now is mechanical, with S&P 500 inclusion effective before the 2026-09-21 open and the analyst meeting on 2026-09-23. Kill line: A weekly close below $92 marks a full unwind of the 2026-08-10 design-win repricing and of the 2026-08-26 beat-and-raise. Secondary: the 2026-09-21 index add and the 2026-09-23 analyst meeting both passing with no fiscal-2028 hyperscale revenue frame and no weekly close back above $110. --- ### PEB — Pebblebrook Hotel Trust URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PEB/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The August overheat has drained without a break: the 2026-09-04 close of $18.03 sits 8.7% under the 52-week high with RSI(14) at 48.1, versus 73.3 on 2026-08-28, while the 16-desk consensus target edged to $19.12. No rating action since Barclays' 2026-08-27 cut to $14, and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print of the +1%–3% RevPAR guide, leaving a saturated narrative range-trading above the $16 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 surrenders the June 2026 breakout shelf and returns PEB to its $13–15 base; secondary condition: Q3 same-property RevPAR at or under the +1% low end of guidance, or any trim to the $345–353M FY adjusted EBITDAre range, at the ~2026-10-27 print. --- ### PVLA — Palvella Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PVLA/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The undated FDA window closed on 2026-08-31: the rolling NDA for QTORIN rapamycin in microcystic lymphatic malformations is complete under 505(b)(2), starting a 60-day agency clock on filing acceptance and the Priority Review decision that runs to ~2026-10-30. The tape re-accelerated with it — the 2026-09-04 close of $157.24 is 0.3% under the $157.77 high — and the next binary is whether the FDA accepts the file and grants a six-month review goal. Kill line: A weekly close below $137 forfeits the shelf the 50-day marked at $137.39 on 2026-08-14 and the whole post-Q2 advance; secondary conditions are an 8-K disclosing an FDA refuse-to-file or filing deficiency, or the 60-day window closing past ~2026-10-30 with no acceptance announced. --- ### RAMP — LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAMP/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Thesis: Shareholder gate cleared 2026-08-17 (51,578,202 for / 60,073 against), leaving CFIUS, HSR and non-US clearances as the only open conditions on Publicis' $38.50 cash offer. The 2026-09-04 close of $37.75 is $0.75 under contract, tighter than the $0.92 gap on 2026-08-21, and no filing since 2026-08-20 has confirmed a clearance — a maturing deal now priced as duration. Kill line: A daily close below $35 breaks the post-vote arb band and marks completion odds repricing toward the $29.66 pre-announcement close; secondarily, a disclosed DOJ/FTC second request or CFIUS extension, or the 2026-12-31 target close passing with none of HSR, CFIUS or the non-US clearances confirmed. --- ### RNG — Ringcentral, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RNG/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Legacy UCaaS re-rating on AI mix (~13% of ARR) has widened from two target raises to a four-firm cluster: Wells Fargo $65 (08-25), Needham $85 (08-28), Oppenheimer $85 (09-01), RBC initiating Outperform at $85 (09-03). Close $73.39 on 2026-09-04, 3.9% under the $76.36 high, RSI 74.6, with fireside appearances on 09-10 and 09-15 the only dated events before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 cuts under the 2026-08-14 close of $64.49 and gives back the entire post-2026-08-25 revision leg; secondarily, the 09-10 and 09-15 fireside appearances passing with no new quantified AI or bookings figure while the compiled average target stays near $55.54. --- ### RVMD — Revolution Medicines, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RVMD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Regulatory-clock narrative re-accelerating: the rolling NDA under the FDA National Priority Voucher is "nearing completion" (2026-07-07) and the EMA opened a phased CHMP review the same day, while the Street ceiling walked from ~$186 to $235 (Guggenheim, 2026-07-09). The three-week digestion off the $192.62 high resolved higher on 2026-07-17 (+3.9% to $186.16) — the breakout retest the prior note wanted. Kill line: A weekly close below $158 forfeits the June breakout shelf and marks the post-RASolute re-rating unwinding; secondarily, an FDA Refuse-to-File, Complete Response Letter or clinical hold on daraxonrasib, or the rolling NDA failing to complete submission by end-Q3 2026. --- ### SAFT — Safety Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAFT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: The Mapfre $105.00 all-cash deal finally has filed dates: HSR filings made 2026-08-13 with the initial waiting period expiring 2026-09-14, a Massachusetts Form A filed 2026-08-25, and a preliminary proxy filed 2026-09-03 that still leaves the meeting date blank. The 2026-09-04 close of $103.15 leaves ~$1.85 gross into a Q1 2027 target with a 2027-07-23 backstop, a saturated spread now priced off dockets rather than fundamentals. Kill line: A daily close below $99 (loses the 2026-07-24 $100.35 announcement shelf and re-opens the ~$72.92 unaffected level); secondary confirmation would be an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request on or after the 2026-09-14 waiting-period expiry, or a Massachusetts Form A hearing notice attaching divestiture or rate conditions. --- ### SCZM — Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SCZM/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Bitcoin miners Thesis: No company disclosure since the 2026-08-17 Q2 print, so the marginal driver is the metal: silver December futures opened $67.63/oz on 2026-09-04, +16.4% in a month, against Q2 cash cost of $15.54/oz and AISC $21.87/oz. Price closed $9.94 on 2026-09-04, level with the only published sell-side target ($10, Maxim 2026-07-17), leaving a maturing re-rating whose next company-dated test is the ~2026-10-27 Q3 production release. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.20 unwinds the entire post-Q2-print advance and returns price beneath the 2026-08-14 close of $8.85. Secondary: the Q3 production release (~2026-10-27 est.) arriving with Reserva still suspended and no restart date, or Q3 AISC printing back above $25/oz with silver realized above Q2 levels. --- ### SHIP — Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHIP/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Capesize spot printed $46,601/day on 2026-08-27, a new high for this run and well above the ~$30,998/day the company guided for Q3 on 2026-07-30, yet the stock closed $17.79 on 2026-08-28, still 2.1% under its $18.17 high. No company print until ~mid-November leaves the Baltic tape, the ~2026-09-07 China trade data and the 2026-09-25 record date as the only markers in a maturing narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.50 (loses the mid-August shelf and the pre-2026-07-30 print level while Capesize spot is still above $40,000/day); secondary: Baltic Capesize daily earnings falling back under roughly $31,000/day, the rate the Q3 guide assumes, or a Q3 dividend declared below $0.35/share in November. --- ### SMTI — Sanara MedTech Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMTI/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Merger-arb instrument since MIMEDX's 2026-07-29 agreement ($33.00 cash + 0.4735 MDXG per share). A Form S-4 now appears on EDGAR under MIMEDX's CIK with a 2026-08-24 consent exhibit, moving the deal into its documented phase; at the 2026-08-28 closes the gross spread to $35.13 of computed consideration is about $0.56, with no vote date and no confirmed HSR expiry on file, leaving a maturing arb whose remaining return is contractual. Kill line: A daily close below $32.50 — about $2.60 under the $35.13 computed consideration at MDXG's 2026-08-28 close, a level the floating stock leg cannot reach on its own — would price termination risk rather than timeline friction; secondarily, the year-end 2026 target passing with no meeting date set and the 2027-07-29 outside date still governing. --- ### TECH — Bio-Techne Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TECH/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: Merger arb pinned 57 cents under Merck KGaA's $73.00 cash bid: the 2026-09-23 special meeting is dated, and the HSR clock restarted by the 2026-08-19 refiling should lapse around 2026-09-18, with no FTC clearance and no second request disclosed as of the 2026-09-04 close of $72.43. The story is saturated — the only remaining variables are a regulator's calendar and a majority-of-outstanding vote. Kill line: A daily close below $70 pushes the gross spread past 4% against the $73.00 cash consideration and would mark a clearance or timetable shock; secondary confirmation is a disclosed FTC second request or another HSR withdrawal-and-refile after 2026-08-19, or the 2026-09-23 special meeting adjourning without an approving vote. --- ### UTZ — Utz Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UTZ/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Networking & optical, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The 2026-08-24 preliminary merger proxy filled the one gap in the prior read: Intersnack's $14.25 all-cash take-private now has a filed Schedule 14A, and the 2026-08-28 close of $14.20 leaves $0.05 of gross spread to a company-guided Q4 2026 close. No special-meeting date is fixed yet. The equity trades as a dated cash claim against a ~$7.50 unaffected area — a saturated narrative with nothing left to re-rate except deal risk. Kill line: A daily close below $13.50 would price a materially higher break probability than anything printed since the 2026-07-21 announcement; secondarily, Q4 2026 ending with no closing and no revised dated timeline, or an 8-K terminating the merger agreement, would confirm the $14.25 Intersnack deal has broken. --- ### VRNS — Varonis Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VRNS/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The June take-private option now has a named counterparty: Reuters, Bloomberg and the WSJ reported on 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-04 that Thoma Bravo-owned Proofpoint is in advanced talks to buy Varonis, and the session needed a circuit-breaker halt with the stock up 7.70%. The 2026-09-04 close of $46.09 pays for an outcome with no announced price, no signed agreement and no 8-K, on an accelerating leg that is four sessions old. Kill line: A weekly close below $41 round-trips the entire 2026-09-02 Proofpoint report gap back to the August shelf near the 2026-08-21 close of $41.23, where the prior rumour bid was absorbed; a report that talks ended, or September ending with no agreement and no 8-K on file, compounds it. --- ### ABT — Abbott Laboratories URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Two named overhangs cleared in August and the tape handed the gain back: $112.47 on 2026-08-28 to $108.33 on 2026-09-04, RSI(14) 61.7 to 44.9, with the $103 post-Q2 gap shelf now 4.9% below. The narrative is saturated — retail-facing coverage landed on 2026-08-25/27 after the catalysts, and nothing company-dated speaks to the 6.5%–7.5% FY comparable guide until the Q3 print in the second half of October. Kill line: A weekly close below $103 surrenders the post-Q2 gap shelf dating to 2026-07-16 and returns price to the pre-print range; secondarily, the FY26 comparable range of 6.5%–7.5% being trimmed rather than reaffirmed at the Q3 report (projected 2026-10-14/19, unconfirmed; one tracker lists 2026-10-21). --- ### ABX — Abacus Global Management, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: The $9.00 shelf still holds — $9.61 on 2026-09-04 against $9.27 on 2026-08-14, RSI(14) 59.7 — with the $100M repurchase live since 2026-08-17 the only identifiable new bid and no company release since 2026-08-24. What remains is a fee-and-spread originator turning into a fee-capital manager on an affirmed $1.00–1.05 FY guide, a maturing story with no company-dated catalyst before the November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 gives up the shelf that survived the post-print de-rating and reframes the 2026-08-17 repurchase as an absorbed bid; secondarily, the $100M program running the full quarter with no weekly close above $10.50 by the Q3 print, or a cut to the FY2026 adjusted-EPS guide of $1.00–1.05. --- ### ACB — Aurora Cannabis Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Cannabis reclassification Thesis: The 2026-09-02 directors' circular came and went as a unanimous rejection with no raise, and Curaleaf reaffirmed 0.3463 shares plus US$0.75 cash the same day. The 2026-09-04 close of $3.95 sits just under the announced US$4.00, so the remaining leg is a bump toward the US$5.00 cap, a white-knight deal that would compress the 105-day clock to 35 days, or a contest before the 2026-12-01 expiry — a maturing event narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.40 gives back the bulk of the 2026-08-11 announcement gap and reads as the market pricing a withdrawn or failed bid back toward the US$2.75 unaffected 30-day VWAP; reinforced if the 2026-12-01 expiry passes with no raise, no competing bidder and no disclosed tender above the 66 2/3% fully diluted minimum. --- ### ACIW — ACI Worldwide, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACIW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-17 Themes: M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Special-situation breakup narrative accelerating: Reuters (2026-07-17) reports ACI exploring a ~$1.5B sale of its Biller unit, which would surface sum-of-the-parts value and re-rate the faster-growing Payments Software segment. Q1 beat + raised FY guide and a fresh DA Davidson PT bump to $64 confirm; Q2 print ~early August is the binary overlay. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 surrenders the divestiture-rumor breakout shelf and flags the biller-sale bid fading; a company statement that the strategic review ended with no transaction would reinforce the break. --- ### ADBE — Adobe Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADBE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Deep-value AI-disruption leg in legacy software, now with an external validator: the 2026-08-13 Silver Lake–Workday take-private report put a sponsor price on marked-down per-seat SaaS. ADBE closed 2026-08-14 at $264.02, 28.2% off the high, but retail was a net seller in July and nothing company-specific resolves before the 2026-09-10 Q3 print and its organic ex-Semrush ARR line. Kill line: A weekly close below $238 (loses the late-July $245–250 recovery shelf); secondarily, a 2026-09-10 Q3 print with organic ex-Semrush ending-ARR growth under the ~8.3% FY26 implied path, or no ex-Semrush disclosure at all. --- ### AGIO — Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGIO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-11-01 Thesis: Mitapivat sickle-cell label-expansion binary into the 2026-11-01 PDUFA, funded by a real ramp (Q2 mitapivat revenue $44.7M vs $26.03M consensus, 2026-07-30). Nothing company-dated has landed since; the tape closed $33.10 on 2026-09-04 against $33.32 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) fading 54.0 to 46.9, leaving a maturing narrative that resolves only at the FDA letter. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 fills the 2026-07-07 Priority-Review gap and negates the label-expansion re-rate; secondarily a complete response letter or materially restricted label at the 2026-11-01 PDUFA, or US mitapivat revenue printing sequentially under $40.9M at the ~2026-10-29 Q3 report. --- ### AKAM — Akamai Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKAM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy-CDN-to-AI-inference pivot got its first external validation since the failed July bounce: Q2 CIS +39% to $99M with >$2.8B YTD contract bookings (2026-08-06), then J.P. Morgan off Underweight to Neutral, PT $158 (2026-08-13). Price has recovered the whole July gap and now sits under the ~$126.5 shelf that rejected it; no company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $115 (loses the recovered 2026-07-08 gap and returns to the 2026-07-24 basing zone); secondary: CIS growth printing under ~35% YoY at the Q3 report, or the low-teens 2027 acceleration framing walked back. --- ### ALAB — Astera Labs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALAB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-04) answered the July margin question: GM 73.7% vs ~73% guide, and Q3 guided $540–560M vs $416.5M consensus (~40% QoQ) with Scorpio X switches in volume production a quarter early. Price has not confirmed — the 2026-08-14 close of $321.61 is ~11% below the post-print level and 33.4% under the $483.02 52-week high. Kill line: A weekly close below $291 erases the post-Q2 re-rating and returns price beneath the 2026-07-24 breakdown shelf ($291.58); secondary confirmation if Q3 gross margin prints under the ~72% guide or revenue lands at the $540M low end. --- ### ALGT — Allegiant Travel Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGT/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Travel & leisure, Semi foundry & equipment, Consumer discretionary rotation, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Allegiant closed the $1.5B Sun Country acquisition (2026-05-13) to become the largest US leisure airline just as fuel flipped to a tailwind and the whole sell-side re-rated it to $142–$160; the move has more than doubled off the low, and the first partly-combined Q2 print on 2026-08-04 is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the June–July breakout base and flips the prior $118 high to resistance; secondary: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print guiding combined FY26 EPS under the $142–$160 bull-target path or flagging Sun Country integration overruns, or crude re-spiking on renewed Hormuz/OPEC+ supply risk that reverses the fuel tailwind. --- ### ALK — Alaska Air Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Cyclical industrials, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: The failed $44–47 shelf has not been reclaimed: the 2026-09-04 close of $42.04 holds above the $40.06 where the CEO bought 25,000 shares on 2026-08-20, but 34.2% under the $63.86 high with RSI(14) at 41.4. The new variable is dated — Investor Day on 2026-09-29 is where the full-year guidance suspended at the 2026-07-21 print is due to return, the first company-specific event since that print. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 confirms continuation through the zone where the CEO bought on 2026-08-20 and puts the $33.03 March 2026 low in play; secondary: the 2026-09-29 Investor Day passing without a restored full-year framework, or Q3 economic fuel disclosed above $3.75/gal at the ~2026-10-22 print. --- ### ALKS — Alkermes plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALKS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Legacy CNS commercial base converting into an OX2R sleep franchise on alixorexton; mechanism risk cleared with the FDA's 2026-08-05 ORZEYFUL approval, yet the 2026-08-28 close of $47.41 is 14.1% under the $55.22 high and the 2026-08-24 Lancet Neurology publication drew no new bid. The ~2026-09-30 ALKS 7290 readout is the only dated event before the Q4 Vibrance-3 binary, leaving a maturing narrative drifting on thinning flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the $45.76 pre-Vibrance-2 high that the June breakout cleared and turns the orexin re-rate into a round trip; secondarily, the ~2026-09-30 ALKS 7290 readout passing without a bid, or FY2026 tracking to the $1.730B low end of the affirmed guide at the ~2026-10-28 print. --- ### ALM — Almonty Industries Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, Freight & logistics Thesis: Non-China tungsten narrative now trades on one venue: the TSX exit took effect 2026-07-31 and the ASX removal 2026-09-01, leaving Nasdaq and Frankfurt. The operating case is unchanged — Sangdong throughput since 2026-07-01, Q2 revenue C$43.0M (+498%) on APT at US$3,075/MTU — but August APT slipped to US$2,900–3,000/mtu and the shares sit 25.0% under $23.42, a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-12 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.50 erases the post-buyback advance and returns the shares into the pre-Q2-print range; secondarily, monthly European APT averaging under US$2,000/MTU, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-12, est.) with a second consecutive revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA not expanding from C$17.6M. --- ### AMAT — Applied Materials, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMAT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The $480 weekly line broke: 2026-09-04 reference close $454.71, 37.0% under the $722.23 high, RSI(14) 17.7, three-month price change -7.5%. Record Q3 revenue of $9.12B (+25% YoY) and a UBS target raised to $695 on 2026-09-01 have not stopped a de-rate that is now single-name — AMAT -14% over a month vs LRCX -2% and KLAC -6%. The 09-08/09-09 conference appearances are the only management voice before a mid-November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $437 breaks the 2026-09-02 intraday shelf and extends the de-rate through the September conference window; secondary confirmation if the 2026-09-08 Citi and 2026-09-09 Goldman appearances pass with no reclaim of the $492.32 area. --- ### AMBA — Ambarella, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Thesis: Physical-AI pure-play narrative still accelerating (Rosenblatt top H2-2026 pick, PT $120; Zacks upgrade to #2 Buy 2026-07-21), but the post-Rosenblatt breakout to ~$80 round-tripped to ~$67.61 by 2026-07-24, forfeiting the $72 shelf on a weekly close into ongoing insider selling — with no dated catalyst until the ~2026-09-01 Q2 FY27 print. Intact theme, broken near-term structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $63.50 loses the June-5 swing low and resumes the breakdown from the failed post-Rosenblatt breakout; the reclaimed $72 shelf has already been forfeited on a weekly close. Secondary: Q2 FY27 revenue (2026-09-01) under the $105M guide floor, a Hanwha ramp delay, or physical-AI coverage flipping to saturated. --- ### AMC — Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Box-office recovery flipped from meme-squeeze dormancy to a fundamental earnings inflection: Q2 (2026-07-20) adj EPS $0.14 vs $(0.06) est, revenue $1.597B beat, plus a Wedbush $4 / Benchmark $3 upgrade cluster (2026-07-21). Narrative accelerating, but ~1B shares, ~$4B debt and post-rally ATM-dilution risk cap a chase of the post-print pop. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 negates the post-Q2 breakout base and reverts the name to penny-tier grind; a fresh ATM equity-raise filing or box-office grosses rolling over across consecutive summer weekends would confirm the earnings-inflection leg has stalled. --- ### AMP — Ameriprise Financial, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Wealth-platform operating leverage intact — Q2 (2026-07-23) adjusted operating EPS $11.07 +22%, ROE 55%, record $1.81T AUM/AUA — but four weeks after the 2026-08-11 high the tape has gone flat: $560.56 on 2026-09-04, 1.8% under the 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 49.3 versus 75.1 on 2026-08-14, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-21 Q3 flow print. Kill line: A weekly close below $540 returns price inside the eighteen-month range broken in the week ending 2026-08-11 and dates that high as a lower high against the 2025-01-29 closing high of $571.66. Secondary: a third straight quarter of total client net flows under $3.1B at the ~2026-10-21 Q3 print. --- ### ANDG — Andersen Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANDG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Managed care & health services, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-IPO roll-up re-rate that survived its binary: Q2 revenue $217.7M beat $199.3M on 2026-08-12 and FY2026 was affirmed at $980M–$1.0B, with four target raises to $49–57 on 2026-08-13. The print is behind it and no dated catalyst sits inside 30 days; the leg now depends on 16 deals worth ~$134M annualized converting into a raise, on a 10.72M float that is 26.7% short. Kill line: A weekly close below $42.50 surrenders the July breakout shelf and the rising 50-day average near $41.94; secondary, FY2026 revenue guidance trimmed under the $980M floor or a Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin that fails to recover toward the 23–25% band from Q2's 21.1%. --- ### ANF — Abercrombie & Fitch Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Legacy-apparel margin turnaround re-rated on the 2026-08-26 Q2 print: adjusted EPS $2.42 vs $1.99 consensus, FY26 EPS guide lifted to $13.10–$13.60, operating margin guide to 14.5–15.0%, ~7% of shares retired YTD. The narrative is maturing — the story is well known, the sell-side reset targets on 2026-08-27 to roughly where the stock already trades, and no company-dated catalyst lands before the late-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 surrenders most of the 2026-08-26 earnings gap and leaves the $110–$115 pre-print band as the next reference; separately, a Q3 FY2026 print that trims the $13.10–$13.60 FY guide or misses the $2.90–$3.20 quarterly range breaks the re-rating case regardless of price. --- ### ANRO — Alto Neuroscience Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANRO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Precision-psychiatry re-rate now running on flow alone: no company news since the 2026-08-27 CFO promotion, no new sell-side revision since H.C. Wainwright's $55 on 2026-08-17. The 2026-09-04 close of $35.55 sits 3.0% under the $36.64 52-week high with RSI(14) cooled from 80.4 to 61.4 in six sessions, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-12 Q3 print and no efficacy readout before 1H 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 gives back the August breakout through the July $28.85 shelf and ends the precision-psychiatry re-rate leg; secondary confirmation is the ~2026-11-12 Q3 print passing with PACE-2 initiation moved off "early 2027", or a new shelf/ATM filing contradicting the through-2030 runway language. --- ### ARXS — Arxis, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARXS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Serial-acquirer compounding into defense and space: five closings since 2026-06-01, the latest StratEdge and Schatz on 2026-09-01/02 (in excess of $40M combined FY27 revenue, terms undisclosed). The 2026-07-29 raise to $1.960–1.980B is already in the price, and RSI(14) of 31.8 on the 2026-09-04 close of $53.62 with no analyst action since 2026-08-13 leaves a maturing narrative whose next dated test is the late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 unwinds the post-2026-07-29 guidance-raise re-rating and returns price to RBC's Sector Perform target; secondarily, a late-October Q3 print that reiterates rather than raises the $1.960B–$1.980B FY2026 revenue guide, or a resale registration after the ~2026-10-14 lock-up mark. --- ### ATEYY — Advantest Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEYY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Broadcom's 2026-09-02 print (AI semis $16.7B, +221% YoY; Q4 guide $21.7B) did what NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 record could not — the ADR closed $217.58 on 2026-09-04, back above the $216.24 record shelf of 2026-06-25. The 2026-07-29 raise to ¥1,714.0B sales / ¥846.0B operating income stays unmeasured until the October H1 print, leaving a maturing narrative that trades on other companies' numbers for six more weeks. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 turns the 2026-09-04 reclaim of the $216.24 shelf into a failed retest and puts the June–July range back in play; secondarily, an unchanged FY2026 guide at the October H1 print, or the China revenue share falling materially from Q1's 48.6%. --- ### AUR — Aurora Innovation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, Freight & logistics, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 (2026-07-29) cleared the binary without breaking the plan: >200 driverless trucks and ~$80M exit run-rate reaffirmed, FY26 revenue guided $14–16M, ~$1.2B cash after a $215M net ATM raise. Price reclaimed the broken ~$6.00 June shelf to a $6.99 close (2026-08-14). Narrative is maturing; the 2026-08-20 retail town hall is an attention event, with the fleet-count checkpoint not due until the late-October print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 gives back the post-Q2 reclaim of the June shelf and re-opens the ~$5.00 pre-McLane level; secondarily, a Q3 print that trims the FY2026 $14–16M revenue guide or drops the >200-driverless-truck year-end target. --- ### AVLN — Avalyn Pharma Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVLN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Post-IPO inhaled-antifibrotic re-rating rebuilt to the 2026-09-04 close of $37.39 from the 2026-08-28 close of $34.69 with no company disclosure since the 2026-08-24 ERS notice; the 2026-09-07 posters carry no FVC data, leaving the ~2026-10-26 lock-up expiry as the first dated event that can move the float, and the MIST topline not due until 2H 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 puts the entire post-Q2 re-rating band behind the tape with no company-guided efficacy datapoint before 2H 2027 to arrest it; a registered follow-on, shelf takedown or Form 144 cluster dated into the ~2026-10-26 lock-up expiry is the confirming second condition. --- ### AVTX — Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-LOTUS consolidation is grinding: the 2026-09-04 close of $19.23 is 1.8% under 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 44.6, and the only new company news since the Q2 print is a September conference slate (2026-09-03) plus 78,000 inducement options struck at $19.34 (granted 2026-09-02). EADV Vienna, 30 Sep–3 Oct, is the sole near-dated venue for full LOTUS data, and officers sold $1.45M in August under a 10b5-1 plan adopted 2026-05-18. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 breaks the post-LOTUS consolidation and undercuts the rising 200-day, which stood at $16.66 on 2026-08-26; secondary confirmation if the EADV window (30 Sep–3 Oct) passes with no abdakibart presentation and the Q3 report (est. ~2026-11-05) only reiterates the H1 2027 Phase 3 start. --- ### AYA — Aya Gold & Silver Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AYA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Silver at $66.94/oz on 2026-09-06 still clears the $64.22/oz AgEq Q2 realized price against a $16.82/oz AgEq cash cost, while the US line closed $28.91 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) cooling to 57.7 from 70.7 on 2026-08-21. The ~2026-10-07 Q3 production release is where tonnes have to confirm the price leg, and no company-dated event lands before it, leaving a maturing narrative trading on the metal. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 gives back the entire August-into-September advance that produced the 2026-09-04 close of $28.91; secondary, silver settling under the $64.22/oz AgEq Q2 realized price into the 2026-09-30 quarter end, or the ~2026-10-07 Q3 production release showing processing beneath the 3,889 tpd Q2 rate. --- ### AZTA — Azenta, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AZTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The prior break level fired: the 2026-09-04 weekly close at $31.33 unwound the whole news-free August advance from $37.40 (Aug 21). What remains is a cash-rich self-help case — $529M and no debt at June 30, the full $63M B Medical price collected after the Sept 3 vendor-loan repayment — now run by an interim CEO, with price back below all six published targets ($33–$37) and no company disclosure due before the mid-November Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 gives back more than half the post-2026-08-04 re-rating and returns price toward the pre-print zone marked by the 2026-07-31 ESPP purchase at $24.1676. Secondary: a mid-November Q4/FY2026 print with organic growth back below flat, or a quarter reporting zero repurchases under the $250M authorization. --- ### BBAR — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBAR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Argentina country trade re-accelerated: June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on 2026-07-14 (first sub-2% of the cycle) and country risk broke to 402bp, tightest since April 2018, carrying BBAR to a fresh 52-week high of $22.47. Price now sits above every published target while Q1 ROE was 8.3% — the macro is leading, the bank is lagging. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.00 negates the July breakout above the $21.38 prior high and puts the ADR back inside the June range; secondary confirmation: Argentine country risk widening back through 500bp, or INDEC monthly CPI re-accelerating above 2.5% MoM for two consecutive prints. --- ### BBWI — Bath & Body Works, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBWI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The 2026-08-26 binary resolved two ways: Q2 adjusted EPS $0.62 vs $0.24 consensus, but ~$0.31 of it was an $80M tariff refund, and Q3 is guided to $0.07–$0.12 against $0.26. Five desks cut targets on 2026-08-27 into a $17–$24 band, yet the $19.51 close on 2026-09-04 sits above the pre-print tape — a maturing turnaround holding its shelf with no company-dated catalyst until the late-November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 loses the July shelf that survived both the 2026-08-26 Q3 guidance cut and the 2026-08-27 target reductions; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-11-24 est.) with net sales beneath the down-5% end of the guided band, or a cut to the ~$650M FY free-cash-flow target. --- ### BE — Bloom Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: S&P 500 addition announced 2026-09-04 (effective before the 2026-09-21 open, replacing Molson Coors) puts a dated mechanical bid under a second-order AI-power name that has gone nowhere for three months: the 2026-09-04 close of $252.87 follows $210.77 on 2026-08-28, still 26.9% under the $345.85 high with a three-month change of -0.3%. The index flow ends on a known date; the 2026-09-28 litigation deadline and the late-October Q3 print are what follow it. Kill line: A weekly close below $210 fills the 2026-09-04 S&P 500 announcement gap and returns price to the $209.01–$210.77 pre-announcement shelf; secondary: the 2026-09-21 effective date passing with no discretionary bid replacing the index one, or FY2026 revenue guided under the $3.9B floor at the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. --- ### BETA — Beta Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BETA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Freight & logistics Thesis: The $18.50 level published in August was never printed: BETA floored in the $19.19–$19.58 band where a director bought two ~$251k tranches on 2026-09-01/02, then closed $22.20 on 2026-09-04, back above the $21.00 weekly level lost on 2026-08-28. Founder-CEO Kyle Clark sold nine tranches at $23.25–$26.74 through August, and nothing is company-dated before the ~end-October certification steps. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.00 — under the 2026-09-01/02 director purchase prices of $19.58 and $19.19 and the 2026-08-28 close of $20.16 — confirms the August break extending into a lower range rather than forming a shelf; secondarily, the Hartzell propeller and 575hp motor certifications not landing by roughly end-October. --- ### BH — Biglari Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-17 Thesis: Seven weeks of shelf between $383.75 and $388.85 with no company news since the 2026-08-07 Q2 release; what moved is the collateral — Cracker Barrel fell to $54.69 on 2026-09-04 from $57.65 on 2026-08-21, and its estimated 2026-09-17 Q4 print is now the only dated event in the frame, striking the mark BH books before quarter-end on 2026-09-30. Kill line: A weekly close below $325 forfeits the 2026-07 flush low of $324.89 and round-trips the second re-rating leg; secondarily, Cracker Barrel back under roughly $45 at or after its estimated 2026-09-17 Q4 print, or Q3 issuance proceeds materially above the $14,920k six-month figure at the ~2026-11-06 10-Q. --- ### BHE — Benchmark Electronics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-07-29 (rev $756M +18% YoY, AC&C +71% YoY, FY26 lifted to ~$3B/+13%) was fully sold: price round-tripped from the $98.67 52-week high to $81.75 on 2026-08-14. The AI-cooling and lidar picks-and-shovels leg is confirmed in the financials but flow has moderated, and no dated company catalyst exists before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 completes the round-trip of the entire post-2026-07-29 beat-and-raise advance and puts price under the June distribution close of $83.92. Secondary: Q3 CY2026 revenue printing under the $755M guide floor, or the ~$3B FY26 outlook being walked back, at the ~2026-10-28 report. --- ### BHVN — Biohaven Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHVN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The 2026-08-26 SK Biopharmaceuticals licence — $400M upfront, up to $150M milestones, mid-teens-to-low-twenties US royalties on opakalim — replaced the financing overhang with funded optionality, and the stock re-rated 13% that day to $15.69 (2026-09-04), 13.4% under the $18.11 52-week high. Two undated 2H-2026 toplines, obesity and RISE3, now sit against a balance sheet that no longer depends on them. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 gives back the entire 2026-08-26 SK licence gap and returns price beneath the $13.85 pre-deal close; secondary break conditions are the taldefgrobep obesity Phase 2 topline missing, disclosed ATM sales under the $350.0M program inside the current range, or 2H 2026 elapsing with neither guided topline released. --- ### BILL — BILL Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BILL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The post-print fade was retraced in five sessions: the last completed close was $50.31 on 2026-08-28 versus $47.82 on 2026-08-21, still under every mark in the $54–$60 target band set between 2026-08-20 and Wolfe's $60 on 2026-08-25. Year two of the self-help re-rate — FY2027 EPS guided $3.56–$3.79 against $3.35 consensus — now has to carry a maturing narrative through a catalyst void until the ~November Q1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 gives back the recovery leg off the 2026-06-22 low of $31.96 and returns price to the pre-June downtrend; secondary confirmation if the ~2026-11-05 Q1 FY2027 print shows businesses served again below 479,300 or revenue under the guided $432.5M floor. --- ### BLDP — Ballard Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLDP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The pivot is a fact with no disclosed GeoPura revenue; the first checkable figure arrives with the 2026-11-10 Q3 print, leaving a dead narrative trading an empty 30-day calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 removes the last round-number reference under the 2026-08-28 low close of $2.25 and prices the closed GeoPura deal as dilution alone; secondarily, a Q3 print on 2026-11-10 with revenue at or below the $20.6M Q2 level, or backlog under $150M, erases the only improving series. --- ### BLKB — Blackbaud, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLKB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Buyback-driven re-rating has flattened at the sell-side average: $47.10 on 2026-09-04 against $47.52 on 2026-08-21 and a $48.50 consensus target, while four officers — COO, CEO, CCO and CFO — filed open-market sales between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-01. Nothing company-dated lands before the still-unscheduled Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.), leaving a maturing narrative to hold its August shelf unaided. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 breaks the post-Q2 shelf, whose lowest weekly close was $45.45 (2026-08-11); a trim to the $1.173B-$1.179B FY26 revenue guide, or organic growth under 3.0% at the Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.), is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### BLZE — Backblaze, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLZE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-16 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Neocloud storage pick-and-shovel: the five-year ~$335M CoreWeave B2 Neo deal (2026-06-23) re-rated BLZE from the high-$7s to a 52-week high near $18, and sell-side is still chasing (Citizens to $16, 2026-07-23). Narrative accelerating but extended above the $14–16 target band into a binary ~2026-08-06 Q2 print — the first read on whether CoreWeave is a template or one whale. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 forfeits the post-CoreWeave breakout leg and drops back under the $14–16 analyst-PT cluster; secondary break if the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows B2 Cloud Storage growth decelerating under 20% YoY or an FY26 guide cut, or the theme flips to saturated on peak mainstream coverage with no fresh neocloud win. --- ### BMY — Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology, M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Post-guidance-reset re-rate printed a new 52-week high of $68.09 before the 2026-09-04 close of $66.82, but the first negative company headline of the leg — the zola-cel autoimmune CAR-T enrollment pause confirmed 2026-08-31 — arrived with price already above the $66.06 average sell-side target, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated company event before the Q3 print is the 2026-09-30 Camzyos adolescent PDUFA. Kill line: A daily close below $63 gives back the post-approval range the move to $68.09 was built on; secondarily, the 2026-09-30 Camzyos adolescent PDUFA passing without an approval, or the zola-cel enrollment pause converting into an announced FDA clinical hold, leaves no dated company event before the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. --- ### BOLD — Boundless Bio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOLD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Merger-arb wrapper on a cash shell: a planned $44–48M pre-close cash dividend plus a 3.69% stub in the AATD base-editing NewCo. Eleven weeks after the 2026-06-23 announcement the Form S-4 is still absent — EDGAR's latest filing of any kind is 2026-08-28 — leaving a maturing situation whose next gradeable event is whether the registration statement lands in time for the guided Q4-2026 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.40 breaks the $2.41–$2.60 June–July Form 4 accumulation band and prices deal-break or dividend-compression risk; the secondary break is no Form S-4 on the EDGAR record by 2026-09-30 against the guided Q4-2026 close. --- ### BTU — Peabody Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Critical materials & rare earths, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Centurion is the whole company-specific leg: seaborne met printed $(17.0)M adjusted EBITDA on 2.5Mt in Q2 while the full-year Centurion target was cut to 2.0–2.5Mt on 2026-07-29, against group EBITDA of $24.0M. Thermal segments fund the ramp; the coal-for-AI-power framing is already widely covered, so the 2026-10-29 Q3 print grades whether tons ship — no company-dated catalyst before then. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 (gives back the late-August coal-equity re-rating and leaves price a full leg under the UBS $26.50 mark of 2026-08-04), or Centurion Q3 sales printing beneath the 0.5Mt low end at the 2026-10-29 report. --- ### BWLP — BW LPG Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWLP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Financing leg resolved: $300M of 2.25% convertibles placed 2026-09-02, conversion price $30.4870 at a 40% premium, part-funding the $940M eight-ship HD Hyundai order without issuing shares at spot — and the stock still closed at a 52-week high $24.86 on 2026-09-04, the last cum-dividend day. The $0.95 detaches 2026-09-08, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated event until the 2026-11-24 Q3 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.00 returns the shares inside the pre-print range that topped at the 2026-08-14 close of $22.62, even after the $0.95 detaches on 2026-09-08; secondarily, Q3 realised TCE landing well under the ~$88,000/day on 92% coverage guided 2026-08-28, or a Q3 dividend declared under $0.95/share on 2026-11-24. --- ### CBLL — CeriBell, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBLL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Managed care & health services, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: The NTAP-funded delirium leg is intact but the flow behind it has thinned — no headline, estimate or target action since BTIG's $30 on 2026-08-18, RSI(14) off 86.0 (08-21) to 78.1 at the 2026-08-28 close of $23.73, still 4.7% under the $24.89 high. Nothing company-dated lands before the 2026-10-01 NTAP effective date, leaving a maturing narrative to hold the $23.40–$25.03 August band against continuing insider supply. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.50 gives back the August NTAP-and-guidance repricing in full and puts price under every disclosed insider print from 2026-08-13 onward; secondary, the 2026-10-01 NTAP effective date passes with no commercial update and the Q3 call (~2026-11-09, est.) carries no delirium detail. --- ### CBRL — Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CBRL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Legacy-diner turnaround with both catalysts spent: the 2026-08-10 CEO handover passed without a repricing and no analyst has moved a target since 2026-07-28. Reference closes stepped down $57.79 (08-07) → $57.65 (08-21) → $55.66 (08-28) against a 10-analyst average target of $45, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated resolver is the ~2026-09-22 Q4 FY26 print and first FY27 guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 unwinds the July–August range and returns price inside the $45 10-analyst average target band; the secondary break is the ~2026-09-22 Q4 FY26 print pairing the FY26 finish with a first FY27 outlook beneath the $3.27–3.30B FY26 run-rate. --- ### CCC — CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Cheap, high-margin insurtech SaaS put in play: a Morgan Stanley-run sale process plus a fresh Elliott activist stake. Shares popped ~13% to ~$6 on the 2026-07-09 Reuters report yet still sit below a plausible PE take-out. The trade is deal-odds, not the claims cycle. Kill line: A daily close below $5.40 fills the 2026-07-10 sale-rumor gap and prices the strategic review failing; a company statement ending or denying the sale process confirms the break. --- ### CCS — Century Communities, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rate is holding but no longer extending: the 2026-08-28 close of $69.16 is 6.2% under the $73.71 high with RSI 52.2. The 2026-08-25 new home sales print — 607k annual rate, -10.5% MoM, 9.6 months' supply — removed the demand confirmation the leg needed, and Freddie Mac ticked back up to 6.66%. No company disclosure until Q3 in late October leaves a maturing narrative running on macro prints alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 retraces most of the 2026-07-22 re-rate and returns price to the pre-print zone; a September NAHB HMI under August's 35 with buyer traffic below 23, and months' supply extending above July's 9.6 at the ~2026-09-24 release, would confirm the demand break. --- ### CERT — Certara, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CERT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-09-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The self-help leg is intact and quiet: FY26 guidance was reaffirmed at the 2026-08-04 Q2 print ($367–382M revenue, $0.31–0.36 adj EPS), the ~$13M cost takeout first shows up in Q3 numbers, and the shares have held four closes between $8.13 and $8.43 into the 2026-08-28 close of $8.35. The 2026-08-05 target cluster left consensus at $8.19 — below the price, 8 of 12 at hold — with no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 print. Kill line: A daily close below $7.90 loses every close recorded since the 2026-08-06 gap fill and puts the 2026-08-04 premarket low of $6.87 back in play; secondarily, FY26 revenue guided under $367M or adjusted EPS under $0.31 at the Q3 report (~2026-11-03, est.) ends the self-help read. --- ### CGEM — Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGEM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: CD19 T-cell-engager-in-autoimmune narrative re-rated CGEM ~3x off the $5.68 low on CLN-978 lupus/RA single-dose remissions; now drifting to ~$17.10 in a bull flag under the $19.43 high with the big data catalyst spent and no dated readout until 2H-2026 — a between-catalysts base, not a catalyst buy. The 2026-08-07 Q2 print is a cash/runway checkpoint, not a data event. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.77 round-trips the June-data bull flag and the rising structure off the $5.68 low; a CRS or durability miss in expanded CLN-978 cohorts, or the CD19-TCE-in-autoimmune theme flipping saturated with no replacement leg, would confirm the break. --- ### CLMT — Calumet, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLMT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Solar & clean energy Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The eleven-week catalyst gap closed in 48 hours: 2026-09-01 cut remaining MaxSAF capital to $137M from a $1.2B plan, 2026-09-02 EPA small-refinery exemptions removed 71M RINs worth ~$170M.C. Wainwright's $75 (from $60) became the first published target above the tape. Shares closed 2026-09-04 at $53.13, 0.7% under the 52-week high, leaving an accelerating narrative whose next hard number is the ~2026-11-06 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 hands back the 2026-09-01/09-02 announcement advance and returns price under UBS's 2026-08-25 $47 mark; secondary breaks: the Q4 2026 Montana tie-in turnaround slipping into 2027, or the 2026-12-31 SAF run-rate landing short of 80 MMgy. --- ### CLW — Clearwater Paper Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: First index-level confirmation of the SBS round: Fastmarkets RISI raised its US SBS folding-carton assessment $20/ton in August (data published 2026-08-21) while other boxboard grades and containerboard stayed flat — yet price fell to $20.82 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 30.9, 10.7% under the 2026-08-07 high of $23.31. The maturing narrative now turns on the September print and the $20.28 August floor. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 breaks the August 2026 floor near $20.28 and returns price to the pre-June range inside the $17–$24 published analyst target band; secondary, the September Fastmarkets RISI print (~2026-09-18, est.) showing SBS flat after August's $20/ton move. --- ### CMBT — CMB.TECH NV URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMBT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The 2026-09-03 half-year came and went and the tape extended through it: a 52-week closing high of $19.49 on 2026-09-04, RSI(14) 77.2, with no new company release on the US wire since 2026-08-27. What is left of the leg is $231.4M of guided H2 disposal gains and a proposed $0.64/share October distribution, set against the company's own disclosure of a Q3 VLCC fix at $125,404/day versus Q2's realized $182,731/day. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.20 surrenders the entire post-Q2 leg off the 2026-08-14 close of $17.24 and returns price to the pre-print range; secondary, the September 2026 bond maturity being refinanced rather than repaid from the ~$400M liquidity cited on 2026-08-27, or the $0.64/share distribution being cut or pushed beyond October. --- ### CMCO — Columbus McKinnon Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMCO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-31 Themes: Cyclical industrials, M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: First full combined quarter post-Kito Crosby beat hard (adj EPS $0.61 vs $0.27 est) and drove a guidance raise on all three lines on 2026-07-30; the leg being bought is deleveraging from 4.9x toward sub-4x by FY28 on $70M of synergies. No company catalyst until the ~late-Oct Q2 print, with price 12.1% off the $23.01 high. Kill line: A daily close below $18.50 hands back the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise shelf; secondary break is a Q2 FY27 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing Credit Agreement Net Leverage above 4.9x, book-to-bill under 1.0x, or a cut to the $2.09–2.15B FY27 sales guide. --- ### CME — CME Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CME/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Listing calendar keeps thickening: wind power futures for Q4 (announced 2026-08-26) and E-mini Equity Factor futures for 2026-09-21 (announced 2026-08-27) join the 2026-08-11 slate of 24/7 silver (09-11), NHL futures (09-28) and Silicon Data compute futures (10-05). The 2026-08-28 close of $285.80 cleared the 200-day near $278.50 but now trades above a $283.93 consensus average with RSI(14) at 73.3. Kill line: A weekly close below $272 forfeits the reclaim of the 200-day region near $278.50 and the advance off the 2026-08-07 close of $263.66. Secondary: the 2026-09-21 E-mini factor futures or the 2026-09-28 NHL futures failing to begin trading on their announced dates. --- ### CMPS — COMPASS Pathways Plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMPS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cannabis reclassification Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Clinical binary resolved 2026-07-07; what trades now is regulatory execution — rolling NDA completion guided Q4 2026, H1 2027 launch, $433.3M cash into 2028. The 2026-09-14 FDA hearing on supervised psychedelic administration is the only dated event inside 30 days, and the tape cooled into it: RSI(14) 67.0 on 2026-08-21 to 54.5 on 2026-08-28, with the shares 8.9% under the $15.07 high. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 surrenders more than half the July COMP006 leg and the post-Q2 range; secondary breaks: a priced equity deal off the 2026-08-05 mixed shelf at a discount, or the "all modules in Q4 2026" rolling-NDA language changing at the ~2026-11-04 Q3 report. --- ### COHU — Cohu, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COHU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment, Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory Thesis: Best fundamental print of the AI cycle (2026-07-30: rev $149M vs $144.08M cons.; Q3 guided $163–177M vs $146.33M) collided with a sector de-rate — the stock closed $52.88 on 2026-08-07, 28.5% under its $73.91 high and beneath the June re-rate shelf. Narrative now saturated: five targets at $65–80, all struck above spot, none cut yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low; secondarily, a Q3 FY26 revenue print beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide. --- ### COTY — COTY INC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COTY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Balance-sheet repair, not demand recovery: FY26 net debt fell to $2,912.1M but leverage still printed 3.4x as adjusted EBITDA fell 22% to $846.9M, and the 2026-08-19 print deferred FY27 guidance to the end-CY26 Consumer Beauty review. The shares ran to $2.93 on 2026-09-04, up 51% in three months, now above Goldman's $2.60 and Morgan Stanley's $2.75 targets, with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $2.55 unwinds the entire advance since the 2026-08-19 print (the 2026-08-21 close was $2.74, the 2026-09-04 close $2.93); secondarily, the Consumer Beauty review reaching its end-CY26 deadline with no named buyer or structure removes the de-lever leg. --- ### CRAI — CRA International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRAI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Beat-and-raise from 2026-08-06 — record $210.8M quarter, FY26 constant-currency guide to $805–820M — remains only partly repriced: $174.99 on 2026-08-28, 20.8% under the $221.02 high, no company headline since 2026-08-08. The leg is a toll on record M&A and litigation volume; margin conversion is unresolved, and with the next company-dated event the ~2026-10-29 (est.) Q3 print, the narrative is maturing rather than fresh. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 surrenders the post-print shelf built on 2026-08-07 and prices the 2026-08-06 raise as spent; a Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) that trims the $805–820M constant-currency guide or extends DSO beyond the 113 days reported for Q2 is the confirming fundamental break. --- ### CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRDO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: Interconnect/AEC royalty narrative still accelerating, not fading — new 52-week highs on late-June initiations (Evercore $325, Stifel $350, BofA $340) plus the early-July AI-buildout rally. But it's now mainstream and widely held, entering a ~6-week catalyst void until the late-Aug Q1 FY27 print with macro tightening; continuation intact, though chasing all-time highs here is lower-edge than a pullback to support. Kill line: A weekly close below $185 loses the late-June breakout base that launched the new-52-week-high leg; a secondary condition is Networking & optical coverage rolling to saturation as sell-side PT raises dry up and peer breakouts (MRVL, AAOI, LITE) fail. --- ### CSTL — Castle Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSTL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The repair leg stalled rather than broke: $34.20 on 2026-08-21 to $32.91 on 2026-09-04, with no company release dated between the 08-20 conference notice and 09-04, while TissueCypher (+64% YoY in Q2) still carries the story. The 2026-09-15 Baird webcast is the only scheduled window to reaffirm the $365–375M FY26 guide before the Q3 print est. ~2026-11-03, leaving a maturing narrative with a two-month gap in company-dated content. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 surrenders the shelf the August repair was built on ($29.21 traded 2026-08-03, $29.62 close 2026-08-14). Secondary: the 2026-09-15 Baird webcast comes and goes with no reaffirmation of the $365–375M FY26 revenue range or the 50–52% TissueCypher volume guide. --- ### CTOS — Custom Truck One Source, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Utility T&D / grid-capex cycle with CTOS as the laggard specialty-rental picks-and-shovels name; the June breakout to $11.36 has stalled, retracing ~10% to retest the ~$10 shelf into a binary 2026-07-29 Q2 print. Theme now maturing and price above most targets — a pullback-retest walking into an earnings gate, not clean momentum continuation. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.00 forfeits the June breakout shelf and the retest holding since 2026-06-18; secondary breaks: FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guided under the $415M floor at the 2026-07-29 Q2 print, rental utilization back under 78%, or a Platinum Equity block sale/secondary into the thin float. --- ### CTRN — Citi Trends, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTRN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: The 2026-08-25 print resolved the binary the right way — comps +10.5%, gross margin 40.6% (+60bps), FY adjusted EBITDA guide lifted to $38–42M — and the shares still closed lower, because the raised FY sales range of $901.958M–$918.357M sits under the $941.840M consensus and the same call disclosed a $100M shelf registration. A maturing story now runs an empty calendar to the Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 forfeits the entire August range (intraday low $67.63) and the post-pre-release shelf; secondary break is a takedown of the $100M shelf registration disclosed 2026-08-25, or the Q2 Form 10-Q showing inventory growth running ahead of the +10.5% comp. --- ### CTSH — Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CTSH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services Thesis: Legacy IT-services franchise re-underwritten as an enterprise-AI deployment partner; the leg still works but has run through its own consensus — the 2026-08-28 close of $64.04 sits above the $63.94 29-analyst mean, no target has been raised since 2026-07-30, and the Q3 print is now listed for 2026-11-04, leaving a maturing narrative with roughly nine weeks and no company-dated catalyst inside them. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 unwinds the entire August extension built off the 2026-08-07 close of $57.67; secondarily, the ~2026-09-24 Accenture fiscal Q4 print guiding discretionary spend or FY27 revenue lower, or a second FY26 revenue-band cut under $22.040B at the 2026-11-04 Q3 report. --- ### CXT — Crane NXT, Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CXT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The post-print give-back stopped rather than reversed: $50.20 on 2026-08-21 and $50.06 on 2026-09-04, RSI back to 49.5, with the $47 washout shelf untested since the 2026-08-19 $48.06 open. The sell-side anchor reset lower in the same window — a six-analyst consensus of $70.17 against the $76.75 four-estimate average cited two weeks earlier — and no Q3 date is announced, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated event inside 30 days is the 2026-09-10 Jefferies chat. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 loses the 2026-06-29 reconstitution washout shelf that the 2026-08-19 $48.06 open held, ending the dislocation-recovery frame; secondary, the 2026-09-10 Jefferies chat and the Q3-date release both passing with the shares under the 2026-08-14 close of $51.66. --- ### DFIN — Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DFIN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Mix-shift leg intact and still untested: software was 44.3% of Q2 net sales at a record 36.7% adjusted EBITDA margin on the 2026-07-30 print, and no company release has followed in the 31 days since. Shares closed $48.32 on 2026-08-28, 15.1% under the $56.94 52-week high, RSI(14) 55.6. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 — under the $44.48 print-day reaction low of 2026-07-30 and under both disclosed 2026 repurchase averages of $47.58 and $45.48; secondarily, a Q3 print at or under the $175M guide floor with capital-markets transactional net sales below $45M. --- ### DGII — Digi International Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DGII/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-16 Themes: AI chips & memory, Bitcoin miners, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Hardware-to-ARR re-rating accelerating: the 2026-08-05 Q3 print put ARR at $191M (+52% YoY) with a record 29.1% adj-EBITDA margin, and FY26 revenue guidance jumped to $529–533M from $490–508M. Price closed 2026-08-14 at $85.12, 0.1% off the 52-week high and above two of three targets raised 2026-08-06, with no company catalyst until the ~November Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 (surrenders most of the 2026-08-06 earnings gap and drops back under Piper Sandler's raised $76 target); --- ### DLTR — Dollar Tree Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DLTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services, M&A & special situations Thesis: The guide-raise resolved on 2026-08-27 — FY26 adjusted EPS moved to $7.70–$8.05 from $6.70–$7.10 against a $7.04 consensus mark — and the tape paid nothing: $131.42 on 2026-09-04 versus $131.48 on 2026-08-21. With Q3 EPS guided $0.80–$0.95 against a $1.40 mark and FY27 consensus EPS at $7.90 versus FY26 at $7.83, the next leg needs estimate revisions, and no company-dated catalyst exists before roughly 2026-12-02. Kill line: A weekly close below $124 unwinds the July 6–8 upgrade-cluster advance and returns the name to the $118 gap shelf; secondarily, Q3 comps printing under the +3.0% guided floor at the ~2026-12-02 report, or FY27 consensus EPS cut below the current $7.90 mark. --- ### DRTS — Alpha Tau Medical Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRTS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-20 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Medtech & diagnostics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Head-and-neck re-acceleration: a 2026-06-23 first-ex-US glioblastoma treatment drove a +17.9% breakout to new 52-week highs (~$12.56 on 7/11), reclaiming the $11.99 Tolmar equity shelf. The 2026-07-21 AHNS podium with complete Alpha DaRT + pembrolizumab HNSCC top-line is the dated binary that extends or breaks the leg. Kill line: A daily close below $11.60 relinquishes the reclaimed breakout shelf (the prior 52-week high and the $11.99 Tolmar equity strike) and points back toward the ~$8.95 pre-deal base; a soft or negative 2026-07-21 AHNS head-and-neck top-line read is the secondary thesis-break. --- ### DSGN — Design Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DSGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Frataxin-protein-surrogate leg: RESTORE-FA's primary endpoint is now blood FXN protein change, and Larimar's FDA alignment on skin FXN as a surrogate for accelerated approval gives that path an external precedent. The company has issued nothing since 2026-08-03; the $15.11 close on 2026-08-28 sits 5.2% under the $15.94 high with RSI(14) off 73.9 to 58.9, leaving a maturing narrative whose next company-dated checkpoint is the Q4-2026 registrational-plans update. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.50 gives back the entire August advance and returns the quote to the post-2026-05-18 range; secondarily, a Q4-2026 registrational-plans update arriving with no defined endpoint framework, cohort design or filing path for DT-216P2. --- ### DVA — DaVita Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DVA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: The census-recovery re-rate stayed dead through August, but the 2026-08-21 washout close of $173.82 held: DVA closed 2026-08-28 at $180.68 with RSI(14) back to 44.9 from 10.9. The 2026-08-25 Humana value-based deal (>10,000 MA members, CKD 3B–5, no disclosed economics) is the first company-dated item since the 08-04 print and does not address H2 revenue per treatment; the next 30 days hold no scheduled company event. Kill line: A weekly close below $172 takes out the 2026-08-21 low weekly close of $173.82 and restarts the post-print de-rating toward the $165 low published target; secondary: the ~2026-10-28 (est.) Q3 print arriving with FY26 adjusted EPS revised below the $14.10 low end of the affirmed range. --- ### DXC — DXC Technology Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The AI-native pivot on a declining $12B IT-services base is being digested rather than abandoned: a fourth AI-framed launch landed 2026-08-12 (DXC Workplace Services on OASIS), then price advanced from $10.80 on 08-21 to $11.21 on 08-28 with no company release behind it. No confirmed company catalyst inside 30 days; the guided ~$0.55 Q2 does not even close until 2026-09-30, leaving a maturing narrative running on structure alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.50 breaks the August shelf that held from the 2026-08-07 close of $10.84 through the 2026-08-21 close of $10.80 and gives back the post-2026-07-30 advance; secondary, FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.40–$2.90 narrowed toward or cut below its $2.40 floor at the Q2 print (~2026-10-29, est.). --- ### DYN — Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DYN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2027-01-21 Thesis: Nothing company-dated until the ~late-October Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative to trade on small-cap biotech flow ahead of the 2027-01-21 PDUFA. Kill line: A weekly close below $20.50 — ends the post-acceptance leg; secondary: an advisory-committee referral on the z-rostudirsen BLA, or Q3 R&D above the $152.2M Q2 level with a shortened "into Q2 2028" runway guide. --- ### EDRY — EuroDry Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EDRY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The August divergence closed the other way: BDI 3,488 on 2026-09-03 (from 2,841 on 08-21), with Panamax spot $22,113/day and Supramax $21,090/day now both above the $20,398/day Q2 TCE. EDRY closed $57.43 on 2026-09-04 at a 52-week high with RSI(14) 73.2, above every published sell-side target, and with no company-dated event before the ~mid-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 gives back the entire September leg and returns price beneath the 2026-08-21 close of $46.85 that capped the August range; secondary condition, Baltic Panamax daily earnings falling back under the $20,398/day Q2 TCE and holding there into the Q3 print. --- ### ELF — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELF/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Sell-side flipped from cutting to marking up in ten days — five PT raises 2026-07-10→07-17 (JPM $94, Canaccord $97, Citi $92, RJ $87, UBS $80) on the e.l.f. Hair launch and Rhode scaling, while the stock slipped to $72.25. Narrative re-accelerating against a falling price; the 2026-08-05 Q1 print settles which one is lying. Kill line: A weekly close below $69 loses the 2026-06-29 bounce low of $69.91 and re-opens the $48.82 52-week low; secondarily, an 2026-08-05 print that leaves FY2027 guidance at or under +12% growth would confirm the July target raises were front-running a deceleration. --- ### ENTG — Entegris, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENTG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-26 Thesis: June's sentiment re-rate rolled over; the 2026-08-04 beat-and-raise re-based the story on numbers — Q2 sales $883.2M vs $835.5M consensus, Q3 guide $905–935M vs $879.8M — and drew three target raises on 08-05 (UBS $215). At $152.08 the stock is still 17.3% under the June high, so the earnings-confirmed leg has not been re-priced. Kill line: A weekly close below $140 erases the 2026-08-04 post-print advance and returns price to the pre-earnings July range; secondarily, Q3 sales tracking under the $905M guide floor at the ~2026-10-28 (est.) print, or the WFE cohort rolling to saturated. --- ### EPC — Edgewell Personal Care Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Two legs — a refused $30 take-private (2026-06-22) and a first positive organic quarter (fiscal Q3 +1.1%, adjusted EPS $0.72 vs $0.62) — hold the shares 2.7% under the $29.66 high at the 2026-09-04 close of $28.87. Seventy-four days on there is still no competing bid, no process and no 13D, leaving the 2026-09-10 Barclays fireside chat as the only dated management appearance before the November fiscal Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 hands back the 2026-06-23 bid gap and the entire post-print advance; secondary condition, the 2026-09-22 three-month mark passing with no competing bid, revised proposal or 13D while the shares lose the mid-$27s post-print shelf on no news. --- ### EVER — EverQuote, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVER/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI enterprise software, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-08-03 Q2 print resolved the plateau binary bullish: revenue $195.1M (+25% YoY) broke the three-quarter ~$190M band, adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.1M, and Q3 was guided $198–208M above the $201.6M consensus. The leg is now fundamental rather than technical — but price ($25.71 on 2026-08-07) sits below its December 2025 $27.87 high and on top of the $25.83 average target. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.82 gives back the reaction to the 2026-08-03 print and returns price under the June swing-high shelf. Thesis fully broken if Q3 revenue lands below the $198.0M guide floor, or adjusted EBITDA below $28.0M, at the ~early-November print. --- ### FET — Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Oilfield-equipment operating-leverage re-rating, still maturing: the 2026-07-30 beat ($1.16 adj EPS vs $0.56) and raised FY26 guide were reiterated at EnerCom on 2026-08-18. Everything new since is supply — four insider Form 4 sales from 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-21 including the CFO's 20,068 shares, then a universal shelf and a 237,552-share resale prospectus on 2026-08-28 — with no company datapoint due until the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 loses the August shelf built after the 2026-07-30 guidance raise and the 2026-08-03 insider reference of $70.63; secondarily, a priced common-stock takedown off the 2026-08-28 automatic shelf, or a Q3 print (~2026-10-22 est.) at or under the $225M low end with the FY range trimmed. --- ### FIGR — Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIGR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Kiavi closed 2026-09-01, eleven weeks ahead of the merger end date, and the tape did not pay for it: the 2026-09-04 close of $35.96 sits below the 2026-08-28 close of $36.05 and 51.3% under the $73.91 high. Q2 marketplace volume was $4.3B, +132% YoY, at a 55% adjusted EBITDA margin, with Q3 guided to $4.8–5.2B excluding Kiavi. The 2026-09-10 Goldman conference is the only company-dated event before the ~November guide update, leaving a maturing narrative with deal risk removed and no fresh bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 breaks it — that loses the $30.70–$33.18 August insider-sale band and confirms BofA's $31 low target; secondarily, the 2026-09-10 Goldman presentation and the ~2026-11-12 Q3 print passing with no Kiavi-inclusive raise to the $4.8–5.2B volume guide. --- ### FLYW — Flywire Corporation Voting URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FLYW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software Thesis: Execution re-rating rather than a thematic bid: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print delivered TPV $8.2B (+38.2%) and a raised FY guide of 21–27% FX-neutral growth, and five desks marked targets up between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-31. Price sits 5.1% under the $19.54 52-week high with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative to drift on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 surrenders the post-2026-08-04 re-rating advance; secondary condition, the Q3 2026 print (~2026-11-03, est.) landing at or under the 16% floor of the FX-neutral revenue-less-ancillary guide. --- ### FORM — FormFactor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FORM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Probe-card pick-and-shovel to the HBM4 test ramp; after a parabolic run to a fresh $160.27 ATH (2026-06-30) on Russell 1000 inclusion, the 2026-07-02 chip selloff cut FORM ~24% to ~$121. HBM inflection intact (record DRAM quarter, second SmartMatrix customer), but the 2026-07-29 Q2 print is the binary that re-rates it. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 forfeits the post-Investor-Day recovery base and turns the July correction into a trend break; a Q2 revenue miss versus the $240M ±$5M guide, or SK hynix confirming a slower HBM4 ramp on its late-July call, would confirm it. --- ### FSLR — First Solar, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-22 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Section 232 supplied a new leg: the 2026-08-06 proclamation sets a $0.38/W minimum import price on modules from 2026-12-04, above the ~$0.36/W FSLR struck on Q2 US bookings. Baird upgraded 2026-08-11 with a target moved to $318 from $205. But the 2026-08-14 close of $225.56 is still under the 50-day $235.83 and 200-day $234.37 — headlines have re-rated, structure has not. Kill line: A weekly close below $208 surrenders the entire 2026-08-07 Section 232 advance and returns price to the pre-proclamation zone; reinforced if the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print shows a fourth straight backlog decline below 45.1 GW or new US bookings priced at or under the ~$0.36/W struck in Q2 2026. --- ### GCMG — GCM Grosvenor Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCMG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The fee-annuity re-rate is intact but idling: the 2026-09-04 close of $13.27 sits 4.7% under the adjusted 52-week high of $13.93 and on the 50-day average at $13.24, with RSI(14) at 42.9 versus 75.2 on 2026-08-14. Q2 reported FRE of $50.3M (+21% YoY) fixed the flat-Q1 problem, but nothing company-dated lands before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, leaving a maturing story to hold on peer flow and analyst actions. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 loses the 200-day average at $11.71 and the 2026-08-06 range low of $12.20, ceding the lower half of the 52-week range toward the $9.30–$10 base; secondarily, a ~2026-11-05 Q3 print with quarterly fundraising under the $2.3B Q2 pace or reported FRE growth back to flat. --- ### GCT — GigaCloud Technology Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Back at the high on flow rather than news: the 2026-08-28 close of $52.95 is 0.6% under the 2026-08-07 high of $53.25, yet RSI(14) reads 54.1 against 85.9 at that high and no company headline has landed since the 2026-08-06 Q2 beat ($411.6M, +27.6% YoY; GM 25.6%). Short interest fell to 3.96M shares (14.77% of the 26.81M float), and nothing company-dated arrives before the ~November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on positioning. Kill line: A weekly close below $45 hands back the entire 2026-08-06/07 post-print gap and returns price under the pre-print shelf; a Q3 revenue print at or under the $375M guide low end, or gross margin back at the 23.9% of Q2 2025, would confirm the operating-leverage leg broke with it. --- ### GEN — Gen Digital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Legacy pivot re-rating extended to a new high: the 2026-08-06 guidance raise (FY27 $5.375-5.475B) carried the adjusted close to $30.65 on 2026-09-04, 2.2% under the $31.33 52-week high with RSI 73.8, while the consensus target lifted to $33.00 and a director sold 299,820 shares at $28-$29 into the move. Nothing dated resolves the guide before the ~2026-11-05 Q2 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on multiple rather than news. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 forfeits the post-print leg, returning price inside the August range beneath the $29 shelf where 199,820 director shares cleared on 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-25. Secondary: Q2 FY27 revenue under the $1,325M guidance floor, or the FY27 $5.375-5.475B range held flat rather than raised on ~2026-11-05. --- ### GERN — Geron Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GERN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The leg is a self-funding commercial ramp, not the myelofibrosis binary: Q2 RYTELO revenue $57.5M (+11% QoQ), quarterly cash draw down to ~$14M on $326.9M, FY guide $220–240M reiterated at the mid-to-high end. The 2026-09-02 release added two fireside chats (Cantor 09-09, H.C. Wainwright 09-15) but no data event, leaving a maturing narrative whose next company-dated test is the ~2026-11-11 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.30 hands back the entire post-Q2 advance off the July 2026 $1.20s shelf and restores the $1.04 low as the operative reference; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 fireside chats passing with no IMpactMF threshold update, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-11 est.) with net revenue under the $57.5M Q2 level. --- ### GHRS — GH Research PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GHRS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-17 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Eli Lilly's up-to-$3.8B AtaiBeckley buy (2026-07-16) put a large-cap price on 5-MeO-DMT for depression; GHRS is now the last independent pure-play, with best-in-class inhaled GH001 Phase 2b data, that the sector is repricing as the next takeout. Phase 3 FDA alignment is the gate. Kill line: A weekly close below $26 gives back the 2026-07-16 Lilly-deal gap and the July breakout shelf, ending the repricing leg. Secondary: FDA declines Phase 3 alignment or reinstates a hold, or the psychedelic-M&A theme flips saturated with no follow-through deal. --- ### HCC — Warrior Met Coal, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics Thesis: Against it, Q2 index realization fell to 66% of Platts PLV from 80%. The narrative is maturing — priced into guidance since 2026-08-05, with no company-dated event before the ~2026-10-30 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $95 (gives back the three-month advance and sits under the $98 UBS target of 2026-08-06); secondarily, a Q3 print showing index realization under the 66% of Platts PLV recorded in Q2 2026 together with a cut to the 13.0–14.0M short-ton sales guide. --- ### HPK — HighPeak Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The post-print harvest-half story is intact but the flow behind it has thinned: HPK closed 2026-08-28 at $8.10, 2.6% under the 2026-08-21 high of $8.32, with RSI(14) back to 52.5 from 65.4, while WTI quoted $83.44. No company-dated event until the Q3 print in early November leaves a maturing narrative holding the 2026-08-10 earnings gap on decaying momentum. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.20 fills the entire 2026-08-10 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print shelf; secondarily, a Q3 print showing total debt no lower than the ~$1.19B carried at 2026-06-30, or H2 volumes guided under 41,000 Boe/d. --- ### HPP — Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HPP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Refinancing binary now ten days out: the 10-Q (2026-08-10) fixes the Hollywood Media Portfolio loan maturity at 2026-09-09 with the longer-term extension unresolved. The equity gave back the post-print move — $14.50 on 08-21 to $13.14 on 08-28, no dated company news between — leaving a maturing narrative whose sell-side repricing is finished and whose terms are still unseen. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 surrenders the June–August range and drops price 14% under the lowest live analyst target; secondary confirm is 2026-09-09 passing with no announced longer-term extension, or disclosed terms carrying a material equity paydown, cash trap or coupon above the 4.9% weighted average. --- ### HRB — H&R Block, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HRB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Managed care & health services Thesis: A defended-franchise cash-return story re-rated on 2026-08-11: fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.38 beat $2.21, and the FY2027 guide of $6.04–6.24 adjusted EPS topped $5.86 consensus, with 7.9% of shares retired in FY2026 at an average $47.48 and IRS Direct File off the board. The narrative is maturing — the 2026-09-04 close of $49.06 sits 8.6% under the 52-week high with no company-dated catalyst before the early-November Q1 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $44 (unwinds the 2026-08-11 re-rating and puts price under the $47.48 average H&R Block paid for FY2026 repurchases), or FY2027 buybacks disclosed at the ~2026-11-05 Q1 print running materially below the ~$400M plan. --- ### HRI — Herc Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HRI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Second-order AI/power play: Herc rents the cranes and gensets that build data centers. Peer United Rentals raised FY26 guidance (2026-04-23), confirming an accelerating theme — but the stock sits +71% off its low and drifts into a binary ~2026-07-28 Q2 print that must convert H&E synergies and data-center demand into reported EBITDA. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 loses the rising 20-week EMA and the May–June recovery shelf; secondarily, net leverage above ~4.25x on the ~2026-07-28 Q2 print, or the FY26 adj-EBITDA guide cut below the $2.0B floor. --- ### HTZ — Hertz Global Holdings, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTZ/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-11 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, EV & autonomous mobility, Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The 2026-08-06 Q2 beat re-lit a squeeze the index deletion had just flushed: adjusted corporate EBITDA $81M cleared the top of a $50–80M guide, GAAP swung to +$64M, and the stock ran roughly 50% in two sessions amid 73.85%-of-float short chatter. It still trades under the $2.70 June offering shelf; the 2026-08-14 13F deadline is the next dated read on who actually owns it. Kill line: A daily close below $2.00 gives back the 2026-08-06 earnings gap and returns the tape to its pre-print regime; a secondary break is the San Francisco Bay Area AV go-live slipping past year-end with no dated launch. --- ### HUBS — Hubspot, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HUBS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: HubSpot is trading as laggard beta on the Salesforce-led software re-rate — CRM +22.6% on 2026-08-27 — carrying HUBS from $240.01 on 08-21 to $260.68 on 08-28 with no company disclosure since the 2026-08-05 guidance reset. Price now sits above the $240.69 consensus target, and UNBOUND (2026-09-16 to 09-18) is the first date HubSpot can replace borrowed sector flow with a monetization number of its own. Kill line: A weekly close below $240 — back under the 2026-08-21 close of $240.01 and the $240.69 consensus target — would show the Salesforce-driven advance fully retraced and the $200–$225 target cluster acting as a ceiling; secondary, UNBOUND closing 2026-09-18 with agent adoption counts and no dollarized outcome-based-pricing metric. --- ### IBTA — Ibotta, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IBTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: One print re-rated the name: 2026-08-03 Q2 revenue $88.905M vs $80.062M consensus, adj EPS $0.46 vs a $(0.30) estimate, Q3 guided $86–90M vs $83.376M est. Shares gapped 21.72% on 2026-08-04 and closed 2026-09-04 at $38.39, 1.2% off the 52-week high. What is being bought is an inflection the trailing series (-6.6% TTM revenue) does not yet show, with no scheduled print until roughly November. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 surrenders most of the post-2026-08-04 gap advance and puts the shares back under the $36.14 nine-analyst mean target; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03, est., unscheduled) with revenue at or below the $86M low end of the 2026-08-03 guide. --- ### ICLR — ICON plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICLR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Restatement-discount unwind has stalled: the 2026-08-28 close of $170.02 gives back part of the August advance, RSI(14) cooled from 67.2 to 56.3, and the only company communication since the 2026-08-06 notes pricing is a 2026-08-20 ESG report. Nothing is dated until the Q3 print (~late Oct, est.), leaving a maturing narrative carried by the twice-affirmed $7.850–8.150B / $10.00–11.00 FY26 bands. Kill line: A weekly close below $158 erases the whole August advance off the 2026-08-03 close of $158.41 and puts price back under the $167 average 2025 repurchase price; a Q3 2026 print (~late Oct, est.) that trims or narrows either FY26 band, or a third affirmation followed by a lower high, confirms it. --- ### IDYA — IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IDYA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Three legs now: the darovasertib NDA under FDA RTOR guided complete H2 2026, the Genentech MTAP/PRMT5 tie-ups, and — new on 2026-08-31 — an FDA-agreed Phase 3 design for IDE849 in ES-SCLC. The 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-01 headlines did not lift the tape past the 52-week high of $42.48 (2026-09-04 close $39.86, RSI 67.7), leaving a maturing narrative whose next data event is ESMO Madrid, Oct 23–27. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 unwinds the August–September leg and puts price back under the 2026-08-14 close of $36.30; secondary breaks are the rolling darovasertib NDA not completing inside the guided H2 2026 window, or ESMO (Oct 23–27) passing without OptimUM-01 data supporting the label-expansion discussion described on 2026-08-04. --- ### IESC — IES Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IESC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Q3 FY26 (2026-07-31) resolved the post-index-inclusion fade in the bulls' favour — revenue $1.243B (+40%), backlog $4.53B (+91% since FY25 close), Communications +51% — and the 2-for-1 split distributing 2026-08-21 is the only dated event in the window. Offsetting it: a live resale shelf over Tontine's ~54% stake. Kill line: A weekly close below $690 loses the June $712 shelf and reverses the post-print leg; equivalently a weekly close below $345 once the 2-for-1 split distributes after 2026-08-21. Secondary: a priced takedown or block sale off the 2026-07-02 Tontine resale shelf. --- ### IKT — Inhibikase Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IKT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The stalled leg resolved upward on no news: IKT closed $2.50 on 2026-09-04 against a fresh 52-week high of $2.52, with RSI(14) back to 57.5 from 44.9 on 2026-08-28 and still no press release after the 2026-08-11 Q2 report. A single-asset PAH re-rating now sits at the top of its range with an open ATM facility above it and no company-dated event until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 — the level RA Capital's 25M-share ATM block cleared at on 2026-07-14 — breaks the financing shelf the re-rating stands on. Secondary: a new ATM tranche priced at or under that level, or a ~November Q3 print leaving sites at 43 and countries at 26 with no dated Part A enrollment-completion guide. --- ### IMAX — Imax Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Premium-large-format royalty narrative is maturing: a second target above spot arrived (B. Riley $61, 2026-08-24) and shares set a $54.79 high, then gave back 8.0% to close $50.38 on 2026-08-28 as The Dog Stars opened to roughly $8M domestic against an $18–23M forecast. No company number until the ~October Q3 print; Resident Evil on 2026-09-18 is the next read. Kill line: A weekly close below $47 gives back the August shelf built above the 2026-08-07 close of $48.49 and unwinds the post-Q2 repricing; a secondary condition is the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print reiterating rather than raising the ~$1.4B global box-office guide after B. Riley's Q3 forecast raise to $560M. --- ### IMOS — ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMOS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-23 Themes: AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Memory-cycle re-rating in an AI costume just re-accelerated: June 2026 revenue +37.2% YoY and Q2 +28.7% YoY (both records since 2014, reported 2026-07-10) erase the May deceleration scare, and price bought back the ~17% fade to sit ~$68 near the $73.97 high. The 2026-08-11 Q2 margin print is the binary on whether the ~13.8% gross margin follows the revenue. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 loses the June–July consolidation shelf the recovery to ~$68 launched from; a confirming break is July monthly revenue decelerating back below +20% YoY or Q2 gross margin compressing at the 2026-08-11 print, flipping the re-acceleration to mid-cycle digestion. --- ### IMVT — Immunovant, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMVT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Single-asset FcRn story: batoclimab was discontinued after the 2026-04-02 TED Phase 3 miss, leaving IMVT-1402 plus $797.8M cash (2026-06-30) and two undated 2H CY2026 readouts (D2T RA topline, CLE proof-of-concept) ahead of 2027 registrational Graves'/MG data. The 2026-09-04 close of $39.25 sits 12.7% under the $44.96 52-week high with RSI(14) at 23.5 and a three-month gain of 27.4%, an oversold unwind with no company-dated event inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 — that erases most of the three-month advance and ends the oversold-pullback-in-uptrend read; secondarily, the fiscal Q2 release re-guiding the D2T RA or CLE data past 2026-12-31, leaving no de-risking print before 2027. --- ### INTA — Intapp, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Agent attach on a compliance-locked professional-firm base keeps producing dated headlines — Celeste-powered Intake/Conflicts/Time re-architecture (2026-08-19), Alt360 DealCloud distribution (2026-08-18), Legora integration (2026-08-25) — but the 2026-08-28 close of $43.47 sits above the $39.43 nine-analyst average target, with nothing company-dated before the ~2026-11-03 Q1 FY27 print, leaving a maturing narrative running on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $36.96 — the shelf where the 2026-08-05 post-print gap session settled — hands back the entire earnings gap; secondarily, a Q1 FY27 report (~2026-11-03 est.) that trims the FY27 revenue range of $656.5–660.5M or shows cloud ARR growth below the reported 29%. --- ### IPAR — Interparfums, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPAR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Nothing company-dated has landed since the 2026-08-04 print: the last covering-firm action was BWS Financial's Sell/$85 on 2026-08-17, and the 2026-09-04 close of $116.69 sits 6.1% above the $110 shelf. The 09-15 annual meeting and dividend record date are the only 30-day events, and neither touches the affirmed $1.480B / $4.85 FY2026 guide, which now waits on the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 ends the June–July breakout shelf and opens the rising 90-day average that ran near $97 in late July; secondary confirmation would be a second Q3 estimate cut below Zacks' 2026-08-25 mark of $1.62, or any trim to the affirmed $1.480B / $4.85 FY2026 guide. --- ### IT — Gartner, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Post-derate re-rating is holding price while the information flow stays empty: the 2026-08-28 close of $198.39 sits above every published target except BMO's $206 and above the $185.15 Hold consensus, and RSI(14) has reset from 76.7 to 54.3. Nothing company-dated resolves the thesis before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative carried by the buyback rather than by new data. Kill line: A weekly close below $168 marks the 2026-08-04 earnings gap as failed on flow alone, with no company data having arrived in the interval; secondarily, total contract-value growth at the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print coming in at or below the +1.7% YoY posted at 2026-06-30. --- ### IVA — Inventiva S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IVA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: The 30-day news blackout broke: the 2026-09-02 last-patient-last-visit release in NATiV3 (1,419 patients) reaffirmed Q4 2026 topline and closed the trial-conduct timing gate, leaving database lock and unblinding as the only steps before one print resolves the equity. The $4.78 close on 2026-09-04 sits just above the $4.40 June offering shelf, and the 2026-09-28 H1 results — moved from 2026-09-25 Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 breaks the 2026-06-02 offering shelf and opens the prior-cycle low near $2.85; NATiV3 topline language moving off Q4 2026 at the 2026-09-28 H1 results, or that release passing with no reiteration, would compound it by pushing the readout toward the end-Q2 2027 base-case runway. --- ### JBIO — Jade Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBIO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The July shelf near $21 broke: the 2026-09-04 close was $19.90 with RSI(14) at 24.2, and the decline from the 2026-08-21 close of $21.34 came with no Jade filing after 2026-08-14 and no release beyond the 2026-09-01 conference notice. Four September fireside chats carry no data and no JADE101 readout exists before the 2027 JUNIPER interim, leaving a maturing narrative whose next documented reference is the $15.00 June follow-on price. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.00 takes out the June 2026 follow-on price, the last underwritten reference for the enlarged float; compounded if Vera's ORIGIN 3 confirmatory eGFR, guided to Q3 2026, comes and goes without repricing the IgAN lane, leaving no company-dated JADE101 event before the ~Q4 2026 JADE301 Phase 1 start. --- ### JRSH — Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JRSH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Sourcing-migration story is still two-for-two on guidance: Q1 FY2027 revenue of $50.23M (+26.7% YoY) beat consensus and the company's own guide on 2026-08-10, and Q2 is guided to $49–51M against $47.85M. Fundamentals have stood still since; the 2026-09-04 close of $5.53 sits 2.0% under the $5.64 high with RSI(14) at 46.2 versus 72.5 on 2026-08-21, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated event before the ~mid-November print is 2026-09-10. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.80 surrenders the advance the 2026-08-10 print produced and puts the $5.43 former-high shelf behind price; secondary, the 2026-09-10 conference and annual meeting passing with no new coverage or order-book detail, then Q2 FY2027 revenue under the $49M guide floor at the ~2026-11-12 report. --- ### KELYA — Kelly Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KELYA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: Both macro tests cleared — the 2026-08-28 benchmark revision at -79,000 (-0.1%) was milder than the ten-year 0.2% average, and the 2026-09-04 jobs report printed +162,000 with July revised from -23,000 to +21,000. Price holds within 2.4% of the $17.28 high as RSI(14) cooled from 76.7 to 63.4, but no company-level estimate has moved since 2026-08-12, leaving a maturing narrative with no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-05 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 unwinds the entire post-Q2 re-rate back through the $16.31 pre-August high; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) with reported revenue under the $916.3M guidance floor, or adjusted EBITDA margin below the guided low-2% range, removes the inflection case. --- ### KEYS — Keysight Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEYS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Analyst-migration re-rate's second leg (Morgan Stanley to Overweight, PT $400, 2026-07-13) has stalled — silent tape near 28x forward, empty calendar until the ~2026-08-19 Q3 FY26 print. The $290–300 breakout-shelf entry hasn't come; current levels buy the tail. Theme accelerating, the KEYS expression maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $270 fills the 2026-05-20 earnings gap and voids the post-print breakout structure; confirmation from a Q3 FY26 book-to-bill back under 1.0, or a 2026 capex-guide cut at MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN in the late-July reporting block. --- ### KMX — CarMax Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Turnaround re-rating went live in July: KMX broke the $50–$53 shelf to close $57.33 on 2026-07-17 (+17.2% in five sessions) after a Q1 FY27 blowout (EPS $1.31 vs ~$0.95, revenue $8.01B +6.2%), CEO Keith Barr buying 9,400 shares at $53.005 on 2026-06-22, and Stephens flipping to Overweight with a $66 target. Consensus PT is $41.73 — 27% below spot — so the upgrade cycle is only beginning. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 fills the 2026-07-13/15 breakout gap, loses the July shelf, and voids the leg — that level is also where the CEO transacted on 2026-06-22. Secondary: a second consecutive quarter of retail GPU compression without comp-unit acceleration at the 2026-09-29 Q2 FY2027 print. --- ### KNSA — Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KNSA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-print commercial re-rating has stopped receiving new information: the $980–995M FY26 ARCALYST guidance raise is 33 days old, no sell-side target has moved since 2026-07-30, and the 2026-08-12 fireside produced no number. Price closed $78.08 on 2026-08-28, 3.5% under the $80.92 high, with RSI(14) at 55.0 versus 66.4 a week earlier, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the Q3 print, est. ~2026-10-27. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 (gives back the entire post-2026-07-28 advance and puts price under every August close); secondary break if the Q3 print, est. ~2026-10-27, reiterates or narrows the $980–995M FY26 ARCALYST guidance rather than lifting it. --- ### LAD — Lithia Motors, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAD/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Fintech & consumer credit, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Legacy dealer group re-rating on non-store earnings: the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat ($10.03 adj EPS vs $8.78) came from Driveway Finance while same-store revenue fell 1.6%. The 2026-08-25 hire of Toyota Financial Services' former CEO over DFC, F&I and two store regions institutionalises that mix, but the tape has stalled at $370.36 on 2026-08-28 with RSI 40.3 and no company-dated catalyst before the late-October print, leaving a maturing narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $340 unwinds the entire post-2026-07-29 advance and puts the stock under JPMorgan's standing Neutral target; a second consecutive negative same-store revenue comp at the Q3 print, with financing operations income again supplying the beat, is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### LBRX — LB Pharmaceuticals Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LBRX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Single-asset schizophrenia binary where the sell-side keeps marking up behind a flat tape: H.C. Wainwright went $45→$60 on 2026-08-24, lifting the eight-analyst average to $53.38 against a 2026-08-28 close of $47.73, while RSI(14) cooled from 62.4 to 56.8. NOVA-2 topline stays H1 2027 and no company event is confirmed inside 30 days, leaving a maturing narrative whose next dated item is the ~2026-10-28 S-3 resale deadline. Kill line: A weekly close below $42.80 surrenders the shelf built on the 2026-08-03 record close of $42.84; a secondary break would be NOVA-2 topline guidance restated to H2 2027 from the H1 2027 reaffirmed on 2026-08-11. --- ### LGND — Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGND/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Royalty-aggregator compounding story: Q2 (2026-08-06) royalty revenue $48.0M was +32% YoY, adj EPS $2.37 beat $1.84, and the FY26 EPS floor rose to $9.00–$9.50 with XOMA (closed 2026-07-14) adding ~$1.50 in 2027. The shares sit at $285.60, 11.5% under the $322.61 high with RSI 43.3 — a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $262 (the average at which the company repurchased 228,859 shares in Q2, and the lower edge of the post-print shelf), or a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with royalty revenue tracking under the $225–250M FY2026 range. --- ### LILA — Liberty Latin America Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Break-up leg holds: the adjusted series set a 52-week high of $8.77 after Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-20 cut to Underweight $7.00, and price closed $8.52 on 2026-09-04. But the flow behind the story has thinned — no company-dated headline since the 2026-08-05 Q2 beat, and the only event inside 30 days is the first $0.5625 preference dividend on 2026-09-15, a cash claim ranking ahead of the common. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.30 forfeits the entire post-Q2 advance and returns price into the pre-print July range; secondarily, the Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) passing with the Puerto Rico and USVI separation still carrying no announced form, no Form 10 and no completion window. --- ### MASS — 908 Devices Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MASS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Post-divestiture handheld chemical-detection pure play still holding the 2026-08-11 beat-and-raise re-rate: the 2026-08-28 close of $10.73 sits 3.3% under the $11.10 52-week high with RSI(14) cooled from 86.0 to 72.2. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 gives back the entire post-2026-08-11 guidance-raise move (pre-release insider sales printed at weighted $9.03–$9.23 on 08-10/08-11). Secondary: sell-side targets cut back toward $10, or the $6M ProtectIR order described as slipping past H2 at the Q3 print. --- ### MCS — The Marcus Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation, Travel & leisure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Theatrical-recovery re-rating is drifting sideways with no company input: no release and no target revision since 2026-08-04, leaving consensus at $32.25 while the 2026-08-28 close of $29.02 sits 6.5% under the $31.03 52-week high. Domestic box office reached $7.072B on the 2026-08-30 Box Office Mojo retrieval, but nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative in its weakest seasonal quarter. Kill line: A weekly close below $27.50 retraces the entire post-2026-07-30 advance and puts price under every published post-print target including B. Riley's $29 low; secondary — monthly domestic box office turning negative YoY in September or October 2026, or negative theatre comparable attendance at the ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print. --- ### MEI — Methode Electronics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Data-center power pivot is revenue-confirmed — record >$80M FY26 segment sales and an FY27 guide ($1.025–1.075B vs ~$952M Street) — but the post-print momentum leg has faded ~26% from the $20.38 high to ~$15. The re-rate is spent and the sell side has caught up; a loss-making, ~4x-levered instrument now sits mid-range with no binary until the early-September Q1 FY27 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 fills the post-earnings gap and forfeits the base the data-center re-rating launched from; a secondary break if the Q1 FY27 print shows the data-center power run rate stalling below ~$120M annualized or the theme flips to saturated. --- ### MESO — Mesoblast Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MESO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: FY2026 printed 2026-08-27 — revenue US$120.3M vs US$17.2M, net loss down 44% to US$57.5M, cash US$103M — and the ADR still closed $17.32 on 2026-09-04, capped by the 2026-07-15 high of $18.07. The catalyst the July leg leaned on has passed, and on the same call the CLBP readout moved from "mid-CY2027" to "second half of CY2027", leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated event before the late-October quarterly. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 gives back the July–August shelf and returns price to the pre-revenue June range; secondarily, an equity raise or ATM announced into this strength, or a Q1 FY2027 Appendix 4C (~2026-10-30) showing quarterly Ryoncil revenue below the US$36M Q4 FY2026 print, would confirm the leg as a range trade. --- ### MGTX — MeiraGTx Holdings plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The $400M Oberland royalty deal (2026-07-07) took dilution and runway risk off the table and spiked MGTX to a new 52-week high of $15.35 before a fade to ~$12.44 — a non-dilutive re-rate of a three-program AAV gene-therapy pipeline, but the next hard clinical binary (AQUAx2) is a year out in Q2 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 fails the reclaimed $11.85-$12.11 breakout and gives back the Oberland pop (spike was distribution); a weekly close below $9.00 ends the post-deal re-rate. Secondary: a clinical hold/CRL, AQUAx2 enrollment slipping past guide, or an Oberland tranche condition failing. --- ### MIRM — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MIRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-26 Thesis: Rare-disease franchise ran to a $125 ATH on FOP data, then cooled ~9% into a confirmed 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Base compounds (Q1 sales +43% YoY, FY guide $660–680M) with FOP PDUFA 2026-09-26 and HDV Phase 3 topline 2H26 stacked ahead — but sell-side has fully caught up, so the print is the near-term binary and the theme is now maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 breaks the post-June breakout structure and voids the momentum leg. Secondary: a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts the $660–680M FY guide, a zilurgisertib PDUFA setback near 2026-09-26, or an AZURE-1 Phase 3 topline miss in 2H26. --- ### MNPR — Monopar Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MNPR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy, Squeeze & momentum setups Thesis: The rolling-NDA leg rebuilt without news: $107.72 on 2026-08-21 to $117.56 on 2026-09-04, back within 5.1% of the $123.84 high, on no company release since 2026-08-19 and with two directors selling into $109–$113 on 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-26. Completing the ALXN1840 submission started 2026-07-22 is the binary and it is still undated, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 round-trips the entire post-2026-07-22 rolling-NDA leg and loses the $105.00 pre-June high; secondary breaks are the submission still incomplete at the Q3 print (~2026-11-12, est.), an FDA refuse-to-file, or an equity raise priced near record levels. --- ### MNTN — MNTN, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MNTN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The post-Q2 profitability-crossover re-rating held rather than extended: the 2026-08-28 close was $13.23 versus $12.90 a week earlier while RSI(14) cooled from 91.4 to 73.2. A 2026-08-21 Texas order denying MNTN's motion to dismiss Alpha Modus's patent suit adds an overhang the August advance did not price, and the 2026-09-08 Citi TMT appearance is the only dated event before a November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 retraces the entire post-Q2 August advance and breaks the profitability-crossover re-rating; a Q3 print at or under the $86M low end of guidance, or the 2026-09-08 Citi TMT appearance passing with no intra-quarter pacing colour and no widening bid, would confirm it. --- ### MYRG — MYR Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYRG/ Conviction: HIGH · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: AI/datacenter power-buildout supercycle lifting grid/electrical contractors; MYRG confirmed it with a record Q1 and a late-June breakout to fresh ATHs (~$487) above the $484.71 shelf. Theme accelerating + cluster-confirmed, but the Q2 print on 2026-07-29 (~11 days out) is now the binary — the setup shifts from chasing extension to respecting the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $440 fails the June ATH breakout back into the $440–485 base; a close below $420 breaks the 50-day uptrend. Thesis also cracks if Q2 (2026-07-29) backlog prints under $2.84B or gross margin reverts below ~12%. --- ### NEOG — Neogen Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEOG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The first rating change of the cycle landed on 2026-08-26 — Piper Sandler to Overweight, target $14 from $13 — and the tape did not follow: $11.66 on 2026-08-28 against $11.95 on 2026-08-21 and 4.0% under the $12.15 high. Nothing company-dated lands before the 2026-10-01 annual meeting and the ~2026-10-08 Q1 FY27 print, leaving a maturing turnaround whose funding proof is the ACCC decision now due 2026-11-27. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 hands back the 2026-07-30 gap and puts the shares under both post-print closes ($11.47 on 2026-08-07, $11.95 on 2026-08-21); secondarily, an ACCC determination by the 2026-11-27 due date that blocks or structurally conditions the $160M Zoetis Genomics sale, removing the ~$140M behind the sub-3x leverage target. --- ### NESR — National Energy Services Reunited Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NESR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: MENA national-oil-company capex via the only US-listed pure play, re-rated by the 2026-08-05 $300M Kuwait award and the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat ($520.8M vs $446.97M). Both are fully in the tape: no sell-side target has moved since 2026-08-13, and the clearest new supply is insider — with nothing company-dated until the ~2026-11-09 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 hands back the post-print shelf held since the 2026-08-14 high of $36.31 and reopens the 2026-08-10 gap; secondarily, Q3 2026 revenue printing under the Q2 $520.8M level, or insider distribution extending beyond the 2026-09-01/02 Form 144 notices. --- ### NGNE — Neurogene Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NGNE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Rett gene-therapy story stays fully financed (~$360.2M pro forma, runway into Q1 2029) and clean at 1E15 vg across N=35 at the 2026-08-10 cutoff. The 2026-09-09 IRSF community webinar is the only company-dated appearance before the ~November Q3 print, and its patient-community format argues for restated rather than new data, leaving a maturing narrative trading flow until Embolden topline in 2H 2027. Kill line: secondarily a new HLH-type serious adverse event or clinical hold on NGN-401, or the 2H 2027 Embolden topline language slipping at the Q3 print. --- ### NKTR — Nektar Therapeutics URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NKTR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: M&A read-through re-accelerating: AbbVie's $10.9B Apogee buyout (June 22, 2026) reframed NKTR as the next takeout-able Treg-IL-2 atopic-dermatitis asset, driving a ~25% run off the June low to ~$70. It's sympathy optionality, not fresh company data — the real ZENITH-AD Phase 3 binary is ~2028. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the early-June reaction low near $57.32 and round-trips the AbbVie–Apogee read-through leg back into the dormant post-mania range; a secondary tell is the immunology-M&A theme flipping to saturated once the Apogee deal closes in Q3 2026 with no fresh bidder surfacing for Nektar. --- ### NOG — Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NOG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: Geopolitical crude leg — WTI $92.09 on 2026-09-03 after Hormuz tanker strikes — is repricing a levered non-op E&P that still trades 12.7% below its $29.64 52-week high. Q2 delivered $159M free cash flow and a buyback at a $20.37 average, but H2-26 oil swaps at $67.55–$68.08 ration how much of $92 crude reaches the P&L, and no company-dated event lands before the ~2026-11-09 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.00 erases more than half of the three-month advance and returns price to the pre-escalation range; secondary conditions are WTI settling back under $75 as the Hormuz premium unwinds, or the 2026-09-29 ex-dividend passing with no new bid behind it. --- ### NTSK — Netskope, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NTSK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Post-lockup repair leg extended on price, not on estimates: $15.09 on 2026-08-28 vs $14.51 on 2026-08-21, while the consensus target crept only $17.25 → $17.36.P. Morgan's 2026-08-26 raise stopped at $16, below the mean. The 2026-09-02 Q2 FY2027 print is the binary — the quarter ended 2026-07-31 is closed, so only guidance and net-new ARR are still open. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.50 loses the reclaimed ~$14 breakdown shelf and voids the post-lockup repair leg; secondary, the 2026-09-02 Q2 FY2027 print landing ARR growth under ~25%, net-new ARR below the $34M of Q1 FY2027, or the $879–883M FY2027 guide left un-raised. --- ### NVCR — NovoCure Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVCR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-TRIDENT commercial-inflection leg still carried by the 2026-07-23 Q2 print (rev $183.584M vs $172.437M cons., first positive adj. EBITDA $10.8M, FY guide $710–725M). Price $17.94 on 2026-09-04 is 10.3% under the $19.99 high and held through the 2026-09-01 breach 8-K, leaving a maturing narrative whose next dated resolver is a Q3 print not yet scheduled (~2026-10-29, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $15.40 fills the 2026-07-23 Q2 gap and returns price to the June band ($14.46–$15.43); secondary breaks are the estimate-revision run reversing after the clean two-month stretch cited 2026-08-22, or the Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) reaffirming rather than raising the $710–725M FY guide. --- ### NWL — Newell Brands Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-print re-rating still shelved: the 2026-09-04 close of $6.11 sits 2.8% under the $6.29 52-week high with RSI(14) at 53.2, and the covering leg behind the 7/31 +15% is largely spent (10.52% of float short at the 2026-08-14 settlement, from 14.5% on 7/15). The 2026-09-08 Barclays fireside chat is now the only company-dated event before the late-October Q3 print, leaving a maturing turnaround narrative running on $0.17/sh of tariff refunds. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.50 puts price back inside the 2026-07-31 earnings gap (roughly $5.14 to $6.07) and ends the post-print re-rating leg; secondarily, a late-October Q3 print showing core sales back in decline or the FY26 EPS range trimmed toward the underlying $0.56-$0.60. --- ### NXT — Nextpower Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Falling knife has based and turned: after a -34% unwind from the $163 high to a ~$107 June base, a fresh cluster (Truist initiate Buy $140 07-14, Guggenheim upgrade Buy 07-15) plus a 07-15 surge is re-rating the M&A-drift story. The ~2026-07-29 Q1 print is the binary that confirms or kills the turn. Kill line: A weekly close below $105 breaks the June reversal base and signals the upgrade-driven bounce has failed, reopening the early-2026 shelf in the mid-$80s; a first PT cut that ends the sell-side cluster or a soft ~2026-07-29 Q1 print seals the flip back to distribution. --- ### ODTX — Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODTX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, AI datacenter infrastructure, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: First-in-class oral RIPK2 inhibitor OD-001 re-rated the story: 27% clinical remission / 61% response in Phase 2a UC (April 2026 topline), $433.1M cash into 2H 2028, and a first initiation at Buy/$44 on 2026-08-27. Price ran 68% in three months to $28.76 on 2026-09-04, already past JPM's $29 target, while the next real data — the UEG Week oral presentation — is not due until October. Kill line: A weekly close below $23 ends the post-IPO advance leg (roughly a fifth under the 2026-09-04 close of $28.76, with no chart shelf between there and the $18 IPO price); secondarily, the October 2026 UEG Week presentation passing without expansion-cohort data that holds the 27% remission / 61% response bar. --- ### OII — Oceaneering International Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OII/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The offshore EBITDA inflection is intact — FY adjusted EBITDA guided $400–440M — but the 2026-09-04 close of $51.40 sits above the $46 four-analyst consensus target with zero Buy ratings, and RSI(14) has decayed to 36.7 from 47.7 on 08-28. No company-generated news has hit the tape since 2026-08-11, leaving four September conference slots to carry a maturing narrative until an unscheduled Q3 print estimated 2026-10-28. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 re-enters the 2026-07-22 earnings gap and ends the post-print re-rating leg. Secondarily, the 09-09 through 09-29 conference slate passing with no revision to the $400–440M FY EBITDA guide and no covering firm going above Citigroup's $52 would mark the re-rating bid spent. --- ### OOMA — Ooma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OOMA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, Semi foundry & equipment, Critical materials & rare earths, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-05 Thesis: The 2026-08-26 Q2 FY2027 print resolved the binary favourably: revenue $83.228M beat the ~$81.63M consensus and FY2027 guidance went to $332.0–333.5M from $326.0–328.5M, with residential revised to flat-to-up-1%. B. Riley lifted its target to $27 on 2026-08-27. With the 2026-08-28 close 0.6% under the $23.04 high and no company-dated event before the ~2026-09-05 10-Q, the roll-up narrative is maturing on confirmed numbers. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.00 gives back the post-print advance and returns price inside the July–August range; secondary condition is the ~2026-09-05 10-Q disclosing churn or an organic-versus-acquired split inconsistent with the ~32% FY2027 business subscription growth framing. --- ### OTEX — Open Text Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OTEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The growth leg died at the 2026-08-06 reset — FY27 revenue guided $5.135-5.185B versus $5.246B in FY26, adjusted EBITDA margin 32-33% versus 36.3%. What is left is cash return against a flat shelf: $807.5M FY26 free cash flow, a 10%-of-float buyback open since 2026-08-12, a $0.28 dividend with a 2026-09-04 record date. RSI(14) recovered to 54.1 on 2026-08-28 from 36.7 on 2026-08-21 with no company news in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.50 breaks the shelf that has held since the 2026-08-06 guidance reset; a secondary break would be the ~2026-11-04 Q1 FY27 report trimming the $5.135-5.185B FY27 revenue range, or core cloud printing under the guided 8% constant-currency floor. --- ### OWL — Blue Owl Capital Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OWL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Private-credit-stress bottom trade picked up a second strand: Blue Owl managed funds led a $2.4B GPU-equipment financing for IREN on 2026-08-28, days after Oppenheimer took its target to $17. Price closed $12.02 on 2026-08-28, 5% below the $12.62 consensus, in a maturing narrative whose next hard test is the Q3 OCIC redemption tally struck at 2026-09-30 quarter-end. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 breaks the August shelf of $11.67–$12.02 closes and returns price to the July private-credit-stress range; secondarily, the Q3 OCIC tally showing repurchase requests back above Q1's 21.9% of shares or a pro rata fill below Q2's roughly 27%. --- ### OXM — Oxford Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OXM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, M&A & special situations Thesis: Setup inverted since the June breakdown. OXM reclaimed its 200-day ($39.11) and 50-day ($39.94) off the $35.83 low, the CEO bought 2,500 shares at $36.90 on 2026-06-12, and ~$25M of filed IEEPA tariff-refund claims — 4% of market cap, excluded from guidance — is landing as cash into a 20.7% short float. A special-situation cash-recovery leg, not an accelerating consumer narrative. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 breaks the July base, puts the 200-day ($39.11) back overhead and turns the reclaim into a failed bounce. Secondary: Phase 2 IEEPA refund process not established by the September Q2 call, or a dividend cut, removes the quantified catalyst. --- ### PARR — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PARR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Distillate scarcity is still deepening — inventories 107.1 Mbbl for the week ended 2026-08-07, reported as the lowest for the date since 1996 — and the 2026-08-25 Laramie agreement adds a non-crack cash lever, roughly $146M expected to Par. The 2026-09-04 close of $81.32 sits 5.5% under the $86.03 high, leaving a maturing narrative whose next company test is an unscheduled, early-November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 breaks the post-Q2 consolidation floor (the 2026-08-04 post-print low was $76.82). Secondary conditions: the consolidated refining index printing at or under July's $31.34/bbl at the Q3 call, or the Laramie sale failing to close by end-2026. --- ### PD — PagerDuty, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-13 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software, M&A & special situations Thesis: The read has flipped from value trap to ownership story. Price reclaimed the 200-DMA (~$10.30 on 2026-07-17, +13% in three weeks), Truist lifted its PT to $11 on 2026-07-09, and the 2026-07-14 addition of Alex Shootman — who sold Workfront to Adobe for $1.5B and Eloqua to Oracle for $900M — layers M&A optionality onto an existing Scalar Gauge cooperation agreement. Top line is still +1% YoY; what re-rates is the exit path, not growth. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 gives back the July re-rate leg and puts price back under the 200-DMA with no strategic bid priced in; secondarily, a Q2 FY27 print (~early Sept 2026) with NRR still under 100% and no board/strategic follow-through returns this to a flat-ARR value trap. --- ### PENG — Penguin Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-08 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q3 (July 7) broke the model wide open: revenue $478.7M vs $405.5M consensus (+48% YoY), EPS $0.84 vs $0.54, FY26 growth guide lifted 12%→22% and FY27 pre-guided ~30%. The stock then round-tripped from $89.86 to ~$60 on the $750M zero-coupon convert — a mechanical arb unwind sitting on the 50-DMA, with fundamentals re-rated, not impaired. Kill line: A daily close below $58 breaks the June higher-low shelf ($59.86 June 7 low) and the 50-DMA at ~$60.77, turning the convert washout into a trend change. Secondary: any walk-back of the ~30% FY27 growth framework at the Q4 print (~October). --- ### PENN — PENN Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PENN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Prediction markets & betting, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) kept the digital turnaround on schedule — interactive adj-EBITDA loss $9.5M (+$52.5M YoY), Q4-2026 profitability target and $1.963B retail EBITDAR midpoint intact — but the tape decoupled: prediction-market headlines took the sector down, leaving the 2026-08-14 close at $18.79, RSI 23.7, sitting on the $18–19 shelf. Whether that shelf holds is now the whole read. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 forfeits the shelf built off the $11.65 low; secondary: the Q4 2026 interactive positive-EBITDA target slipping to 2027, or the FY26 interactive adj-EBITDA loss guide widening from $20M, at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. --- ### PESI — Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PESI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Nuclear & uranium Thesis: Post-award drift with no new information: the shares closed 2026-09-04 at $18.70, 3.8% under the $19.43 52-week high, recovering from $17.30 on 2026-08-21 with zero company disclosure since 2026-08-12. The 2026-09-30 funding lapse was pre-empted by the continuing resolution signed 2026-09-02, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 fills the 2026-07-17 grouting-award gap and unwinds the post-award repricing; compounded if the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print shows revenue at or below $12.885M despite DFLAW receipts running since early July, or a shelf takedown is filed after the May 2026 offering at $8.75. --- ### PGEN — Precigen, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PGEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-07 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: PAPZIMEOS launch-ramp durability is the binary — the first FDA-approved RRP therapy printed $21.6M net product revenue in Q1 2026, and the now-confirmed Aug 4 Q2 print (announced Jul 21) grades whether the ramp compounds sequentially or was an early bolus into ~400 hub-enrolled patients. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.50 breaks the spring launch-ramp base; a sequential PAPZIMEOS revenue decline below Q1's $21.6M at the Aug 4 print, or the end-2026 cash-flow breakeven guide slipping, would confirm a bolus rather than a durable ramp. --- ### PK — Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: BMO's 2026-09-01 upgrade to Outperform ($14→$18) was the first rating change of the cycle, but the tape did not follow: PK closed 2026-09-04 at $15.26, back on the $15.32 shelf it cleared in August and 5.6% under the $16.17 high, with RSI(14) at 53.8 versus 72.4 on 2026-08-28. The next dated item is the $1.275B Hilton Hawaiian Village prepayment due inside Q3, leaving a maturing narrative with no earnings test before ~2026-10-29. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.60 forfeits the August breakout through the prior $15.32 ceiling and returns the shares to the pre-print range; secondary confirmation if the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print cuts FY26 RevPAR toward the low end of +3.0%–4.5% or guides Adjusted FFO below $1.90. --- ### PLMR — Palomar Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLMR/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: A cat-light Atlantic season and three FY26 guidance raises carried the reference close to $136.58 on 2026-09-04, 5.7% under the $144.79 high, with RSI(14) at 74.9 and no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. The 2026-09-10 KBW conference is a marketing slot rather than a disclosure event, which leaves the $128 August washout close as the level the September thrust has to hold. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 unwinds the September thrust and returns price under the 2026-08-14 washout close of $128.21, with the $125 July breakout shelf next; secondarily, the 2026-09-10 KBW conference passing with no covering firm moving a target above the $168 high while RSI(14) stays over 70. --- ### PNRG — PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PNRG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-09 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: Geopolitical crude bid re-fired after the 2026-07-08 US strikes and Hormuz blockade — WTI back to ~$80 from $68.86, PNRG +8.9% MTD to $186.51 and above the 200-day. Structurally better than June: GCX in-service flipped Waha gas positive, killing the -$0.40/Mcf drag that halved Q1 earnings. Cyclical trend reclaim, not a vertical narrative. Kill line: A daily close below $171 surrenders the base this July leg launched from and confirms the crude premium has deflated a second time. Secondary: WTI sustaining under $70 on US-Iran de-escalation, or the 2026-08-19 Q2 print showing realized gas still negative despite GCX in-service. --- ### PPTA — Perpetua Resources Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PPTA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Funded domestic-antimony developer whose news flow stopped paying: the 2026-08-18 Idaho district court ruling largely upheld federal approvals and the 2026-08-31 update reported 5,800m drilled plus 6.4m of 16.2 g/t gold, yet the close was $25.09 on 2026-09-04 against $25.11 on 2026-08-28 while gold rallied ~10% in August. The approved $2.9bn EXIM facility is still undocumented, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $21 hands back the entire July–August advance built on the 2026-07-30 pilot plant and the 2026-08-06 discovery; secondary break if 2026 ends with the $2.9bn EXIM facility still undocumented and no final investment and construction decision announced. --- ### PRCH — Porch Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRCH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Reciprocal-pivot re-rate has largely printed: $9.26 (6/5) to $15.98, now consolidating at $13.68 after KBW's 7/13 valuation downgrade that still raised its target to $16.25. Narrative intact but maturing; the 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether RWP tracks the $600M FY26 target and surplus keeps compounding past ~$165M. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 surrenders the late-June upgrade-cluster shelf and returns the stock to the middle of its June base. Secondary: an FY26 revenue guide cut below the $495M floor at the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, or statutory surplus reported below the ~$165M Q1 level. --- ### PRGS — Progress Software Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRGS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: AI enterprise software, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Disciplined software roll-up ("Total Growth Strategy") re-rated by a fresh catalyst cluster: Q2 beat + FY guide raise (2026-06-30) and the $400M Domo buy (2026-07-22). Special-situations theme active, but a maturing low-beta compounder — structurally supported on a pullback to the breakout retest, rather than on the +11.7% extension. Kill line: A weekly close below $37 fills the 2026-07-01 post-earnings gap and voids the breakout shelf; a Domo deal break or the M&A-special-situations theme flipping to saturated with a dry target pipeline confirms the re-rating has stalled. --- ### PRM — Perimeter Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Managed care & health services, M&A & special situations, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Monopoly wildfire retardant (PHOS-CHEK) into a season at national Preparedness Level 5 — 3.85M acres burned YTD (NIFC, 7/18), ~157% of the 10-yr average. JPM initiated Overweight $50 on 7/9, lifting the 4-analyst average target to $45. Price has backed off the $38.17 high to ~$34.42 and is basing above the June shelf ahead of a binary Q2 print (~Aug 6). Kill line: A weekly close below $33 breaks the June breakout shelf and the $33.16 mid-July low, putting price back inside the pre-breakout range. Secondary: NIFC YTD acres-burned decelerating back toward the 10-yr-average pace through August, or a Q2 print (~Aug 6) that fails to extend the +74% revenue / +128% adj-EBITDA Q1 trajectory. --- ### PTGX — Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PTGX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-05 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: De-risked dual-royalty story accelerating into a binary: icotrokinra (oral IL-23, J&J) already approved and paying 6–10% royalties; rusfertide (PV, Takeda) into a Q3 2026 PDUFA. Stock at a fresh ATH ($143.29, Jul 20) as the PV theme runs — the rusfertide decision is the accelerant, but a fresh chase sits above the $125 consensus PT with a lumpy Q2 print ~Aug 3. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 loses the July breakout shelf that launched the pre-PDUFA momentum leg. Secondary: a rusfertide Complete Response Letter, restrictive label, or delay at the Q3 2026 PDUFA, or divesiran's August 2026 Phase 2 data undercutting rusfertide's first-in-class premium. --- ### QTWO — Q2 Holdings Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QTWO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: JPMorgan's 2026-08-24 raise to $72 from $60 removed the last published target sitting under the market, leaving a $67–$82 analyst band around the 2026-08-28 close of $65.13. The 2026-07-29 beat-and-raise (FY26 $881–886M, 28.6% adj. EBITDA margin, +$350M buyback) still stands, but the narrative is maturing with no company-dated catalyst before an unscheduled late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 unwinds the entire post-2026-07-29 consolidation and every publicly observed print inside it, and places the shares under JPMorgan's pre-raise $60; secondarily, the Q4 2026 general-availability window passing with no dated GA announcement for Q2 Assistant and Q2 Code. --- ### RAPP — Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RAPP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: RAPP broke to all-time highs at $42.62 (2026-07-17, +6.2%) on zero company news — the move is pure sell-side re-rating (BTIG reiterated Buy/$65 on 7/16, consensus PT $56.64, 12 desks Strong Buy) with Phase 3 FOCUS now enrolling globally. Price confirms the platform re-rate, but the next data binary (bipolar-mania Phase 2 topline) is Q4 2026, leaving a one-quarter void under a stock at its highs. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 fails the June–July breakout above the prior $42.27 shelf and loses the rising 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: an 8-K disclosing a RAP-219 clinical hold or new SAE (single molecule, correlation ≈1 across all four indications), or bipolar-mania Phase 2 topline slipping out of Q4 2026 at the 2026-08-06 Q2 update. --- ### RCKT — Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RCKT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Price has stalled where the 2026-08-03 safety leg left it — $3.86 on 2026-09-04, unchanged from the 2026-08-28 close — with no company disclosure since the 08-10 Q2 print and three Form 144 sale notices filed 08-18. Two webcast fireside chats (Cantor 2026-09-10, Morgan Stanley 2026-09-15) are the only dated events inside 30 days, so the re-rate still waits on the undated H2 2026 Danon regulatory-pathway update. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.20 hands back the entire post-2026-08-03 safety-update advance and re-opens the $2.53 low. Secondary breaks: the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-15 fireside chats passing with the H2 2026 Danon regulatory-pathway update still undated, or a 424B5/ATM ahead of the stated Q2 2028 runway. --- ### RDIB — Reading International Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RDIB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The squeeze premium in the thin voting class has deflated — the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $14.99 broke the $15 level published on 2026-08-29 by a cent — while the deleveraging leg hardened: an 8-K filed 2026-09-04 discloses a signed $41.0M sale of Cinemas 1, 2 & 3 with no financing or diligence contingency, closing on or about 2026-10-30, which sits outside the 30-day window. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 (the bulk of the August repricing given back while the sale contract is still pending); secondarily, the Cinemas 1, 2 & 3 closing slipping past 2026-10-30 with no 8-K setting a replacement date. --- ### RELY — Remitly Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RELY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Operating-leverage leg intact but stalling: since the 2026-08-05 Q2 raise to $1.978–1.988B / $410–415M, the only new information has been supply — a Form 4 dated 2026-08-26 shows CFO Mehta selling 25,000 shares at $26.15, one dated 2026-08-28 shows the CBO selling 21,000 at $26.39, and director Morris printed again at $27.03 on 2026-09-02. Price closed $26.17 on 2026-09-04, 2.8% off the high with RSI 49.2, and 2026-09-09 Communacopia is the only microphone before November. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 unwinds the 2026-08-21 breakout and returns price to the $23.50–$25 post-print shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 appearances passing with no corridor-volume, pricing or Global Card datapoint, or any trim to the $410–415M FY Adjusted EBITDA guide at the Q3 print. --- ### RGEN — Repligen Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RGEN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Medtech & diagnostics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Bioprocessing-recovery rerating now carries a deal overhang: the 2026-07-28 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $0.54 vs $0.45; FY26 sales to $813–835M) took RGEN within 3.2% of its $182.03 high, but the BioLife merger S-4 went effective and the 2026-09-04 close of $167.60 sits 7.9% below that high with RSI(14) back to 48.6, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated tests are the 2026-09-09 Wells Fargo fireside and the 2026-10-05 BioLife vote. Kill line: A weekly close below $158 gives back the entire post-print advance and loses the early-August shelf marked by the 2026-08-05 close of $158.59; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 fireside and the 2026-10-05 BioLife vote both passing with no target above Wells Fargo's $185 while price stays under the $182.03 52-week high. --- ### RLYB — Rallybio Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLYB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: The S-4/A filed 2026-08-26 marks Rallybio Net Cash at ~$82.2M as of 2026-08-15 but still leaves the record date and meeting date blank, so no timetable is public. The cash discount stays inverted while burn runs and the clock has no fixed end. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 on the adjusted series — under the per-share arithmetic on the S-4/A's $82.2M Net Cash mark at 2026-08-15, implying the market prices a break or a Net Cash haircut. Secondary: no SEC effectiveness order and no record date by 2026-10-31, against a 45-calendar-day meeting clock. --- ### RMAX — Re/Max Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMAX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: M&A & special situations, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Merger arb that finally got a date. DOJ granted HSR early termination 2026-07-13 and both special meetings are set for 2026-08-14, removing the regulatory leg. RMAX $11.10 vs ~$11.86 blended (5.150 REAX at $2.21 plus the prorated $13.80 cash pool) — roughly 7% over six weeks. The residual risk is unhedged REAX beta, not deal failure. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the post-HSR arb floor and implies REAX back under $1.80 or fresh doubt on the vote. Secondary: either shareholder meeting on 2026-08-14 failing to approve, or the meetings being adjourned without a new date. --- ### RRGB — Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RRGB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Deleveraging turnaround repricing: ~$96M / 116-unit refranchising cuts net debt ~$147M→~$51M, removing the going-concern tail that pinned RRGB near $2.46. Tape +38.7% since the ~2026-05-20 Q1 print, into the low-$7s near the $7.89 high. Accelerating but idiosyncratic; late-Aug refranchising closes plus the Q2 print are the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 fills the post-Q1 breakout gap and forfeits the June–July shelf, ending the deleveraging re-rate; a slipped, repriced, or broken Evergreen/Kuber refranchising close (~Aug 21/28) is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### SAP — SAP SE URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Post-Q2 repair leg took its first downgrade and held: UBS cut SAP to Neutral on 2026-08-26 over slow agentic-AI delivery, and the ADR round-tripped the drop within two sessions to close $221.54 on 2026-08-28, helped by Salesforce's same-day Agentforce print. The story is now well known and the flow two-sided, with no SAP-dated binary before the 2026-10-21 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $200 breaks the post-Q2 re-rating leg and the $208–210 shelf that held the 2026-08-26 UBS downgrade. Secondary: the 2026-10-21 Q3 print showing current cloud backlog decelerating materially from +26% currency-adjusted, the H2 slowdown UBS flagged. --- ### SBSW — Sibanye-Stillwater URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SBSW/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Record H1 (EBITDA R31.8bn +111%, net debt/EBITDA 0.18x) and an interim dividend at the top of policy re-rated a de-geared PGM producer; then the 2026-09-03 USW walkout at Stillwater — the only US primary palladium mine — put palladium +4.9% at $1,441/oz while halting ~55% of the company's US output. The 2026-09-16 ex-dividend date and the strike's resolution are the near-term swing factors. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 erases the post-results and strike-driven advance and returns the ADR to its 2026-09-01 pre-print range; secondarily, a settled USW strike with palladium back under $1,300 and still no named US critical-minerals arrangement for the Montana asset. --- ### SE — Sea Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SE/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Emerging markets, Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Three-engine re-acceleration — Shopee GMV +30%, Monee loan book +71%, Garena's best quarter in 5 years — drove a Q1 beat (2026-05-12) and a +19% one-month recovery off the $77 low. Fundamentally accelerating, but the stock is short-term extended above the July 1 Bollinger break and still ~48% under its $199 high, with the Q2 print (~Aug 11) as the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $90 surrenders the June recovery base and the 2026-07-01 Bollinger breakout; secondarily, a Q2 print (est. ~2026-08-11) showing SeaMoney credit costs/NPLs rising or Shopee GMV decelerating below the ~25% FY guide confirms a fundamental break. --- ### SEPN — Septerna, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEPN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-print breakout failed: the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $36.75 lost the $38 shelf top and put price back inside the July $33.10–$38.04 range, RSI(14) at 15.3, with no adverse company news since the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat. Six broker targets ($48–$62) all landed after the high and none has moved. Two September fireside chats are the only near-term events before the Q1 2027 SEP-479 readout. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 breaks the July $33.10–$38.04 shelf and completes the round-trip to the pre-breakout base; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-10 fireside chats passing without a named indication or start date for the SEP-631 signal-finding study, or a first cut inside the $48–$62 target cluster. --- ### SKM — SK Telecom Co., Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SKM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets, Mega-cap AI platforms Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: The funding overhang that framed this name closed on 2026-08-27: KKR and the IMM–Stonebridge consortium signed for ₩3.08T of equity into SK Horizon, the AIDC entity being carved out of SK Broadband, with SKT keeping 51% — asset-level capital, no parent issuance named. The ADR did not hold it, closing $38.70 on 2026-09-04 against $40.29 on 2026-08-21, and nothing is company-dated until the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34.80 hands back the entire 2026-08-05 print-session re-rating (that session closed $34.80, +7.94%); a 6-K naming a parent primary capital increase size and offer price, or a termination of the KKR/IMM agreement, would compound the break. --- ### SMRT — SmartRent, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMRT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-09-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-12 Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: RSI(14) cooled 87.8→74.7 while price only slipped $1.49→$1.43, so the momentum extreme unwound sideways. Still no dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $1.32 puts price under every August 2026 insider purchase print ($1.34–$1.44) and loses the July base; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) showing adjusted EBITDA back below zero, gross margin under 40.7%, or TTM units booked decelerating from 112,560 breaks the inflection case regardless of price. --- ### SMWB — Similarweb Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMWB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: CEO supply continued and was absorbed: a 2026-08-27 Form 4 reports 383,127 option shares sold at ~$9.00–$9.05, taking two-week insider sales to 1,092,724 shares, yet the 2026-09-04 close of $8.84 sits 7.3% above the 08-21 low close. The 09-02 NIQ agentic-commerce collaboration carries no disclosed economics, leaving a maturing narrative with no dated company event before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 hands back the post-guidance advance and puts price under the lowest live post-print target ($8.50, Oppenheimer 2026-08-05); a further Form 4 reporting sales beneath the $8.66–$9.05 bands already printed, or a Q3 report under the $80.5M guide floor with AI revenue still 13% of sales, confirms the break. --- ### SNDX — Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Menin-inhibitor commercial ramp accelerating: Revuforj + Niktimvo franchise cleared $100M/quarter with revenue +224% YoY, and the leg being bought is frontline AML label expansion (~10x TAM). Stock coils below 52-week-high resistance $25.59 with PTs ~$38–40 far above ~$24.57; 2026-07-14 R&D Day is the near-term event, frontline 2H26 data the real inflection. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 breaks the June–July base and the multi-month uptrend structure; a confirming leg would be frontline BEAT AML/EVOLVE-2 data landing below the ~90% CRc bar set at EHA 2026, or the Oncology & immunology theme rolling to saturated. --- ### SNEX — StoneX Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The momentum leg stayed dead, but the tape stopped breaking: closes ran $64.85 on 2026-08-11 to $69.46 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) back to 53.9. New since the last note is the 2026-08-26 8-K authorizing repurchase of up to 5.0M shares for fiscal 2027 from 2026-10-01 — the only demand mechanism on the calendar before Q4/FY results land around December. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 cuts through the 2026-08-11 closing low of $64.85 and the May consolidation shelf, turning the June round-trip into a trend reversal rather than a momentum unwind; secondary break is 2026-10-01 passing with no evidence of repurchase under the new 5.0M-share FY2027 authorization, or Form 4 selling resuming into the $74–80 shelf. --- ### SOPH — SOPHiA GENETICS SA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SOPH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Cloud-genomics platform story from the 2026-08-04 Q2 print (net dollar retention 117% vs 107%, FY26 guide up to $94–96M, AstraZeneca two-programme CDx deal) is now maturing: the shares eased to $8.09 on 2026-09-04, 9.3% off the $8.92 high, RSI cooled from 82.3 to 56.8, and no company financial disclosure lands before the Q3 6-K near 2026-11-03 (est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $6.84 (the 2026-08-04 post-print reference close) hands back the entire guidance-raise gap; secondary condition is a Q3 print near 2026-11-03 (est.) that leaves the $94–96M FY2026 guide unchanged or lower, or net dollar retention back under 110%. --- ### SPSC — SPS Commerce, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPSC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-04 Themes: AI enterprise software, Freight & logistics Thesis: De-rating-repair leg: Q2 (2026-07-30) beat on adjusted EPS $1.27 vs $1.09 with EBITDA +19% on 6% revenue growth, while the FY26 revenue band was cut on the 2026-06-30 3P divestiture. Price reclaimed the ~$70 200-day, but the fresh Morgan Stanley agent-to-agent disintermediation thesis (2026-07-21, UW, $57→$59) caps the multiple and no catalyst lands inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 (loses the reclaimed 200-day and the June–July shelf), or Q3 revenue printing at/below the $196.3M guidance low end at the ~2026-10-22 (est.) print. --- ### STTK — Shattuck Labs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STTK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Receptor-side TL1A: SL-325 delivered the first human data for a DR3-blocking antibody on 2026-06-08 — complete receptor occupancy at 0.1 mg/kg, anti-drug antibodies in 3.7% of dosed subjects — and the shares are up 74.1% over three months. With $208.3M cash guided to 2029 and the RECEPTIVE-CD1 Phase 2b start due inside Q3 2026, the near-term question is whether a trial-start release re-accelerates a narrative that has drifted since the 2026-08-11 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.75 — the level at which the 2026-06-08 Phase 1 advance is being reversed rather than digested. Secondary: 2026-09-30 passing with no RECEPTIVE-CD1 Phase 2b initiation announced, which would break the Q3 2026 guidance given on 2026-08-11. --- ### SYNA — Synaptics Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SYNA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory Thesis: Standalone story ended at the 2026-06-25 all-stock takeout; At the 2026-09-04 closes the gross discount compressed to ~1.4% (1.350 × $74.38 = $100.41 vs $98.99), a fourth consecutive tightening mark, while EDGAR showed no S-4 amendment as of 2026-09-06 — the vote is still uncalendared and the spread has stopped paying much for the wait. Kill line: A weekly close below $90 opens a discount wider than 10% to the 1.350-ratio implied $100.41 struck at onsemi's 2026-09-04 close of $74.38 — break repricing rather than acquirer beta. Secondary: an S-4 amendment disclosing a China SAMR phase-two review, or no notice of effectiveness by end-November 2026. --- ### TBLA — Taboola.com Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TBLA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Legacy open-web ad network repricing as a toll booth on AI answer surfaces: the 2026-06-16 DeeperDive ad-network launch (35% take rate, open to third-party LLMs/agents) plus the 2026-07-01 Wikitree win drove a breakout to 52-week highs near $5.41, with estimates +20.6% in three months. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is where the story gets a number or stalls. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.80 gives back the June DeeperDive breakout and puts price back inside the May–June base; secondary, the 2026-08-05 Q2 print passing without a disclosed DeeperDive third-party customer count or revenue contribution, which would leave a ~6% grower re-rated on an unquantified line. --- ### TNXP — Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNXP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Tonmya's second full launch quarter printed ~$11.0M net sales and 12,592 prescriptions (+100% QoQ) on 2026-08-10, roughly 1.75x the $7.723M revenue consensus, while the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $13.14 — 57.9% under its $31.21 52-week high, with a $225.36M market cap against $176.2M of 2026-06-30 cash. The leg being bought is script compounding outrunning a thin analyst model; ATM issuance and a runway stated only into early Q2 2027 are the offset. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.50 (loses the shelf above the $9.40 52-week low and the three-month advance), or a Q3 print near 2026-11-09 showing total Tonmya prescriptions at or under Q2's 12,592 and no sequential growth from ~$11.0M net sales. --- ### TOI — The Oncology Institute, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TOI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Delegated-capitation pivot confirmed at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print — FY26 guide raised to $650–670M, and management said capitated revenue should roughly double in 2027 off ~$150M — but the re-rating is decaying: $7.05 high on 2026-08-07, $6.17 on 2026-08-28, $5.93 on 2026-09-04 with average volume more than halved, leaving a maturing story whose only dated event before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print is the 2026-09-08 Wells Fargo fireside. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.13 fills the entire 2026-08-07 post-Q2 gap and returns the shares to the last pre-print close. Secondarily, the Q4 Nevada/Oregon go-lives slipping past the ~2026-11-05 Q3 call without a new date, or a Q3 guide pushing the FY26 adjusted-EBITDA floor back to or below zero. --- ### TRVI — Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRVI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: Second breakout leg confirmed: TRVI cleared the June $18.17 all-time high and printed $20.22 on a +9.85% July 17 session (8.3M shares, $19.07 close), lifting the tape ~+45% in six weeks on Phase 3 launch mechanics and institutional marketing rather than data. Consensus PT $24.90 vs 10 Strong Buys still sits above spot; the Aug 6 Q2 print is the only dated event before a 14-month data desert. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 surrenders the June breakout shelf over the prior $16.12 52-week high and returns the name to its $13–16 post-offering cage. Secondary: an 8-K disclosing a Phase 3 clinical hold, protocol amendment or SAE cluster, or a fresh equity raise into strength despite guided runway into 2030. --- ### TTMI — TTM Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TTMI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials, AI chips & memory Thesis: The 2026-08-05 binary resolved bullishly — Q2 revenue $1.004B beat both the $930–970M guide and $962M consensus, book-to-bill rose to 1.49, Q3 guided $1.100–1.140B vs $1.073B consensus. Yet the 2026-08-14 close of $140.0 is 36.8% below the 52-week high and still under the $155.98 breakdown close. Orders re-accelerated; the price structure is only partway repaired. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 loses the June gap fill and the $131.61 (2026-07-24) shelf after a beat-and-raise quarter, opening the $100–110 pre-breakout range; secondarily, a Q3 print with total book-to-bill under 1.0 or revenue below the $1.100B guide low. --- ### ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ULCC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Travel & leisure, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Fuel-relief leg replaced by an earnings-delivery leg: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print put adjusted EPS at $(0.10) against a $(0.60)–$(0.45) May guide on record $1,279M revenue, and guided 2H to breakeven-or-better. The catch is that guide assumes $3.70/gal Q3 fuel with Brent at 88.38 (2026-08-14), and consensus PT $6.67 sits on the $6.69 close. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 puts price back under the July consolidation and prices out the guided 2H turn; secondary: Q3 realized fuel above the guided $3.70/gal, or a walk-down of the +20% Q3 RASM guide before the ~late-October print. --- ### UNH — Unitedhealth Group Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UNH/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Margin-repair re-rating in the largest US managed-care book: FY26 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $19.50–$20.00 on 2026-07-16, yet the 2026-09-04 close of $397.14 sits 9.0% below the $436.35 52-week high with a three-month price change of -1.8%. The earnings line has been marked up twice this year and the multiple has not followed, leaving a maturing narrative whose standing discount is the open DOJ Medicare Advantage probe. Kill line: A weekly close below $375 (under the $390s shelf marked by the 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-04 closes); secondary, a Q3 2026 print that narrows or cuts the $19.50–$20.00 FY26 adjusted EPS range. --- ### UROY — Uranium Royalty Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UROY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Nuclear & uranium, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: The equity cooled from $4.38 (2026-08-21, RSI 79.9) to $4.25 (2026-08-28, RSI 55.3), leaving a maturing narrative whose only company-dated test is the first combined-company report, estimated ~2026-09-14. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.90 breaks the $4.09–$4.38 band held since 2026-08-07 and retraces the post-relisting consolidation; secondary confirmation would be spot U3O8 indicators printing under $80/lb after the $89.83/lb reading of 2026-08-30, or the first combined-company report arriving with no pro forma diluted share count. --- ### USO — United States Oil Fund, LP URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/USO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: The driver rotated: Rubio's 2026-08-25 shift from strikes to sanctions drained the escalation bid, but EIA's 0.095M bbl crude build vs 1.600M expected (08-26) and oil rigs -5 to 447 vs 454 est (08-28) carried USO to $129.70. The narrative is maturing and now trades on inventories rather than war headlines, with the 2026-09-06 OPEC+ meeting and Trump's 65-billion-barrel Venezuela announcement as the two-sided test. Kill line: A weekly close below $122 erases the recovery off the 2026-08-14 close of $126.60 and puts the fund back under its August range; --- ### VCYT — Veracyte, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VCYT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-21 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Sell-side is now chasing a move it missed: VCYT broke to a 52-wk high $60.91 (closed $59.13 on 2026-07-17, +124% YoY) as Piper initiated Overweight $66 (07-15) and Canaccord lifted a Hold PT $42→$60. Fundamentals still accelerating (Q1 rev +21%, Decipher +30%, TrueMRD launched 06-01), but consensus PT $56.55 sits below spot and the Q2 print lands 2026-07-30 — a dated binary between here and any continuation. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 surrenders the June $49–52 shelf and marks the July breakout as failed. Secondary: Q2 results on 2026-07-30 showing testing revenue growth below +18% YoY (vs +21% in Q1) or Decipher below +22% (vs +30%), or FY26 guidance merely reaffirmed at $582–592M rather than raised again. --- ### VEEV — Veeva Systems Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VEEV/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Post-print re-rating: the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 beat (revenue $928.0M +18%, 44.8% non-GAAP operating margin, FY27 guide raised to $3,682–3,687M) contradicted the Salesforce CRM-share-loss story that had taken the shares to $185.91 on 2026-03-04, and nine brokers repriced to a $260–$325 band within 48 hours. No company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-12-02 Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $245 fills the 2026-08-27 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print reference from the 2026-08-26 session; secondary, a named top-20 biopharma disclosed as a Salesforce Life Sciences Cloud customer at Dreamforce (2026-09-15 to 09-17). --- ### VET — Vermilion Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VET/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: European gas made new highs without the equity: TTF printed a three-year high above €68/MWh on 2026-08-25 while the shares closed 2026-08-28 at $12.46, below their 2026-08-21 close and 13.0% under the $14.32 high. With 58% of European gas hedged and Q3 volumes guided to 116,000–118,000 boe/d, the realized-versus-benchmark spread stays unproven until the ~2026-11-04 print; the only dated event inside 30 days is the 2026-09-15 dividend record date. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.20 returns price inside the pre-2026-08-10 range and unwinds the August gas-driven re-rate; secondary condition, month-ahead TTF settling back under €50/MWh from the €65.40 of 2026-08-26 with EU storage injections re-accelerating off the 63% mark. --- ### VG — Venture Global, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VG/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary that extends or breaks the leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 forfeits the mid-July breakout shelf that launched the run to $15; the Oil, energy & geopolitical theme flipping to saturated (TTF rolling over, European storage full) or an Aug 11 print with a widening Calcasieu arbitration charge is the confirming secondary break. --- ### VIA — Via Transportation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, AI enterprise software Thesis: Busted-IPO transit-software re-rating, now a month past its trigger: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise carried the shares from $19.41 (2026-07-31) to $28.13 (2026-09-04), but the pace has slowed to +4.2% over the ten sessions since 2026-08-21 while RSI(14) unwound 80.5 → 71.6. An acqui-hire (Knode.ai, 2026-08-28) keeps headlines coming, yet the next company-dated test is the ~2026-11-12 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with an empty ten-week calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 puts price under the low end of the published sell-side target range and back inside the gap the 2026-08-06 print opened; secondarily, Q3 revenue beneath the $137.6M guide floor at the ~2026-11-12 report, or the Q4 positive-adjusted-EBITDA goal dropped from that call. --- ### VIOT — Viomi Technology Co., Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIOT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Compliance-clock recovery: after the 2026-07-22 Nasdaq sub-$1 deficiency notice, the ADSs closed 2026-09-04 at $1.14, and 10 consecutive closes at or above US$1.00 convert the deficiency into a written compliance confirmation before the 2027-01-19 deadline. Cash of US$89.0M at 2026-06-30 sits against a $76.75M market cap while H1 revenue fell 49.9% — the balance sheet, not the business, is what is on offer. Kill line: A weekly close below $0.99 (back beneath Nasdaq's US$1.00 bid threshold, resetting the 10-day counter with the 2027-01-19 cure deadline unmoved), or a 6-K announcing a reverse split / ADS ratio change that delivers mechanical compliance without a new bid. --- ### WDAY — Workday, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WDAY/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: The 2026-08-27 print removed the fundamental leg of the bear case — cRPO +14.2% inside the guided 13.5–14.5% band, FY27 margin guide lifted to 31.0%, a new $4.0B buyback — while the Q3 cRPO guide of 11–12% sits under the ~13.3% consensus. What holds the $195.79 close above the $179.64 pre-report level is an unconfirmed Silver Lake process with no bid price and no filing three weeks after Reuters. Kill line: A daily close below $180 returns the tape to the 2026-08-07 pre-report close of $179.64 and prices the reported take-private at zero; secondarily, a public denial or lapse of the Silver Lake process with no per-share number disclosed, or Q3 FY27 cRPO printing under the guided 11–12%. --- ### WEX — WEX Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WEX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-24 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Cyclical industrials, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Hated fuel-card/fintech inflecting: the 2026-07-22 Q2 beat (Adj EPS $5.35 vs $5.05) and FY26 guide raise to $19.68-$20.08 discredit the EV-kills-fuel-cards and rate-cut-kills-float bear case; PTs jumped to $200-210 (Mizuho/KBW, 7/24). Earnings binary just cleared — ~3 months of clean tape into a ~10x multiple with buyback support. Kill line: A weekly close below $164 fills the 2026-07-22 earnings gap and negates the beat-and-raise re-rating; secondary: the payments/fintech-consumer-credit theme flipping to saturated, or a dovish FOMC path compressing custodial-float NII. --- ### WIX — Wix.com Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WIX/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Base44 margin inversion is the live leg and the market is now paying up for it: after the 2026-08-04 beat ($563.1M, +15%; adj EPS $1.39 vs $1.16) and the ~60% 2H gross-margin guide, price ran from the 2026-08-07 close of $60.20 to $66.14 on 2026-08-11, far above the $51.56 50-day. No company proof point until the ~November print, and a securities class action over Base44 cost disclosure has a 2026-09-22 lead-plaintiff deadline in between. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 fills the 2026-08-04 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print base, which now overlaps the rising 50-day average at $51.56; secondary, Q3 bookings growth printing under Q2's +12% or an FY26 cut from low-teens bookings growth. --- ### WK — Workiva Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WK/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: The post-Q2 earnings-power re-rate has pulled the sell-side up with it: Stifel moved $70→$95 on 2026-08-27 and Baird $74→$95 on 2026-09-01, both above the 2026-09-04 close of $76.55. RSI(14) cooled from 77.1 to 65.1 while price barely advanced from the 2026-08-21 close of $74.83, leaving a maturing narrative whose next dated test is Amplify, 2026-09-14 to 09-16. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 hands back the post-2026-08-04 advance and puts price back under the pre-revision sell-side cluster; secondary break if Amplify (2026-09-14 to 09-16) passes with no quantified AI monetisation and no reset of the 16.8% margin framework. --- ### WNC — Wabash National Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WNC/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: The regulatory binary resolved in Wabash's favour: Commerce's final China AD/CVD determinations came back affirmative with a 2026-08-24 CVD determination date (FR 2026-17749/17750, publication scheduled 2026-08-31), leaving the duty wall intact while backlog rebuilds ($956M, +14% q/q). Unresolved: profitability, with Q3 guided to -$0.45 EPS, and the ITC's final injury vote — the one remaining event that can void the orders. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 surrenders the August shelf built around the 2026-08-24 Commerce final and the 2026-08-14 close of $12.56. Secondary: a negative ITC final injury vote voiding the duty orders, or Q3 backlog printing under the $956M reported at 2026-06-30. --- ### XGN — Exagen Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XGN/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Post-print re-rating off the 2026-08-04 Q2 beat (revenue $19.941M vs $17.817M consensus, FY26 guide lifted to $72–75M) is now digesting rather than extending: $7.92 on 2026-08-21 to $7.58 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) cooling from 86.7 to 65.5, no publicly reported target change since 2026-08-05 and no company-dated event before the ~early-November Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative that has so far held its gap. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.36 unwinds the entire 2026-08-04 post-print gap session and returns price to the pre-print range; secondary condition, the ~early-November Q3 2026 print leaving FY2026 guidance unchanged at $72–75M or TTM AVISE CTD ASP printing at or below $446. --- ### YETI — YETI Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YETI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-17 Thesis: Tariff-margin-recovery turnaround now getting sell-side confirmation: Goldman upgraded to Buy/$63 on 2026-07-20 (vs Canaccord's $45 Hold a month earlier), pushing YETI through the $51.89 multi-year high. The leg still hinges on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print actually showing the guided H2 gross-margin expansion. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 (loses the $48–51 coil that launched the breakout and the rising 20-EMA); or a 2026-08-06 Q2 print with no H2 gross-margin expansion and an FY adjusted-EPS guide cut below $2.83. --- ### YEXT — Yext, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YEXT/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The 2026-09-01 binary resolved mixed: non-GAAP EPS $0.21 beat the $0.17 estimate and adjusted EBITDA hit $34.0M (30.6% margin), but revenue $111.103M missed $111.300M consensus and ARR was flat at $440.8M for a second straight quarter. What remains is a margin-and-float story — 99.3M shares versus 122.9M at 2026-01-31 — with the AI-visibility option still unpriced in ARR; Envision on 2026-09-30 is the next dated proof point. Kill line: A daily close below $5.90 breaks the August advance leg and returns price under the $6–$7 shelf where support failed; secondary confirmation is Envision passing on 2026-09-30 with Scout/Corvo/GoShine still unquantified in revenue, and a third consecutive ARR print at or below $440.8M at the ~December Q3 FY2027 report. --- ### ZBIO — Zenas BioPharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBIO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: First-in-disease B-cell modulator: obexelimab BLA (IgG4-RD, 56% flare cut, HR 0.44) hit the FDA 2026-05-28, and the ~60-day filing determination — acceptance plus a possible Priority Review grant — is due within days, a fresh near-term driver into an accelerating immunology narrative. Deeper binaries (SunStone SLE) sit in Q4 2026. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 forfeits the July catalyst-watch advance and the post-NEJM rebound base toward the $21 April swing low; an FDA refuse-to-file on the obexelimab BLA, a standard-review assignment that stretches the timeline, or a Q4 2026 SunStone SLE topline miss would confirm the pipeline rerate has stalled. --- ### ZBRA — Zebra Technologies Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZBRA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The 2026-08-04 guidance-raise re-rating (adj EPS $6.35 vs $4.36; FY26 EPS to $20.75–$21.25) has gone sideways rather than broken: the 2026-09-04 close of $362.74 sits 5.3% under the $383.06 high with RSI(14) back to 44.5 from 76.4, and neither UBS at $435 on 2026-08-13 nor Stephens at $450 on 2026-09-02 produced a new high, leaving a maturing story whose only dated event before Q3 is the 2026-09-09 Citi TMT appearance. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 hands back the bulk of the 2026-08-04 guidance-raise gap (which began from a $291.64 pre-print reference) and ends the leg; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 Citi TMT appearance passing without a reclaim of the $383.06 high, or Q3 printing at or under the $4.70 EPS low end. --- ### ZETA — Zeta Global Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZETA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Palantir Foundry re-platforming now has a management clock — phase one guided complete within 30–40 days of the 2026-07-06 Citi event, landing on the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Price reclaimed the $21 shelf that capped the June recovery (+14% since late June), but 30.57M shares stay short and the Culper overhang is unresolved. Confirmed structure, unconfirmed numbers. Kill line: A daily close below $19 forfeits the entire July advance and returns price to the June range; secondary: an FY2026 revenue guide cut below the ~$1,785M midpoint at the ~2026-08-04 print, or Palantir Foundry phase-one integration slipping past mid-August without a restated date. --- ### ZIP — ZipRecruiter, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZIP/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 print on 2026-08-05 put revenue at $118.1M (+5% YoY, +10% QoQ) with Quarterly Paid Employers +12% sequentially and adjusted EBITDA margin at 12% vs 8% a year earlier, alongside a debt reduction of more than half — a trough-reversal read taken in a hiring market management calls near 2015 lows. Price has since given back 23.1% from the $5.49 52-week high, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.70 surrenders more than half the three-month advance and reads as the market discounting the 2026-08-05 inflection; secondarily, Q3 revenue printing under the $118.0M guidance floor or Quarterly Paid Employers falling back below the 70,721 Q2 exit. --- ### ZURA — Zura Bio Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZURA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Pipeline-breadth re-rating still unpaid: the 2026-08-11 Q2 print added polymyalgia rheumatica as a third tibulizumab indication and Wedbush ($22) plus Guggenheim ($20) re-rated on 2026-08-12, yet the 2026-08-28 close of $5.72 sits 18.8% under the $7.04 high. The binary is TibuSHIELD HS topline in Q4 2026, and nothing is dated inside 30 days, leaving a maturing narrative to hold the low-$5s shelf on no news. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 loses the July-August low-$5s shelf and marks the pre-data bid draining out ahead of any clinical information; secondary confirmation would be the NEXUS-PMR Phase 2 initiation slipping past 2026-12-31 without explanation, or the TibuSHIELD topline window sliding out of Q4 2026 at the November print. --- ### ZYME — Zymeworks Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZYME/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The 2026-08-25 FDA approval of Ziihera in first-line HER2+ gastroesophageal cancer converts Zymeworks from a burn-funded developer into a milestone-and-royalty recipient — a $250M payment from Jazz against $322.5M of cash at 2026-06-30, with the 2026-08-31 interim survival readout confirming the label. The maturing leg now needs Q3 royalties to step up from Q2's $1.8M, and nothing company-dated tests that before the ~2026-11-05 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 (under the $25.04 average of the company's own 1.97M-share repurchase through 2026-08-04, round-tripping the approval window); secondarily, Q3 royalty revenue failing to step up materially from Q2 2026's $1.8M at the ~2026-11-05 print. --- ### AAON — AAON, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AAON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Beat-and-raise on 2026-08-10 (Q2 sales $627.0M, +101.2%; FY guide up to $2.235–2.307B) landed with gross margin 24.3% vs 26.6% and the FY margin guide cut to 25–26%. Targets were cut the next day and the entire 2026-05-07 re-rating gap has round-tripped to $87.80 — broken structure, no company catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 puts price under the ~$90 pre-gap area with no base built and confirms the de-rating extends; secondary break is the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print showing BASX backlog down sequentially a second time or FY gross margin guided under 25%. --- ### ABEO — Abeona Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABEO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: The post-print drift has continued without repair: the 2026-08-28 close of $5.92 sits two cents above the $5.90 shelf the prior note named as the break, with RSI(14) at 21.8 and no Abeona press release at all between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-30. The leg still on offer is a manufacturing yield-and-release fix converging recognized revenue with treated patients, and nothing dated tests it before the FY2027 NTAP rate year starts 2026-10-01 and the November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.60 completes the retracement of the entire July–August NTAP leg and puts the stock under the range it consolidated on before the 2026-08-04 grant; secondarily, an announced offering, ATM takedown or S-3 activation into this drawdown, or a Q3 report that again recognizes revenue on fewer patients than were treated. --- ### ABNB — Airbnb, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ABNB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The post-Q2 re-acceleration re-rating has reached its loudest phase — two $220 targets (DA Davidson 08-31, Rosenblatt initiation 09-01) and a dedicated CNBC spotlight on 08-27 — while the 2026-09-04 close of $181.94 sits 4.5% under the $190.50 52-week high with RSI(14) back to 53.5. Chesky's 2026-09-08 Goldman Sachs appearance is the first venue to address the reported US pilot cutting host fees to 6–10% from 15.5%. Kill line: A weekly close below $175 surrenders the post-Q2 shelf set by the 2026-08-07 range and turns the $190.50 52-week high into a failed high. Secondary: the 2026-09-08 Communacopia appearance passing with no quantification of the host-fee pilot, leaving take rate defined by third-party reporting until the ~2026-11-04 print. --- ### ACDC — ProFrac Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACDC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Brent pushed above $96 on 2026-09-03 as the US resumed strikes on Iran and Hormuz transit fell to roughly 4.9 mb/d, yet ACDC closed $5.15 on 2026-09-04, still under its 2026-08-14 close of $5.37. The crude-beta leg has now failed on two successive escalations; what is left is a company-level frac-pricing recovery with no company-dated test before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 removes the entire August–September base and returns price to its 2026-07-09 level; reinforced if Brent settles above $95 again without ACDC reclaiming its 2026-08-14 close of $5.37, or if a Hormuz reopening drags Brent under $85. --- ### ACHC — Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Second consecutive weekly close under the surrendered $30.20 shelf ($28.13 on 2026-09-04) with no company-dated catalyst before the est. late-October Q3 print. The FY26 guide (adj. EBITDA $590–615M) is intact, but reported short interest slipped to 20.95M shares from 21.80M — squeeze fuel draining without a price reward, leaving a dead price leg over an unchanged operating floor. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 breaks the shelf the drift has held since 2026-08-28 and turns the July advance into a full give-back, with the $30.20 level as overhead supply; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. late October) showing no comparable Florida supplemental line and a further PLGL reserve build. --- ### ACHR — Archer Aviation Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Physical AI & robotics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The 2026-08-10 Boeing re-rating has failed outright: the 2026-09-04 close of $5.71 sits below the $6.26 pre-announcement reference the deal leg was measured against, and neither the 2026-08-24 AEG vertiport agreement nor the 2026-09-03 "No Roads" flight-tour launch drew a bid that held. What is left is whether the flat three-month shelf near $5.65 absorbs 8,261,273 newly registered resale shares while HSR and an end-2026 close carrying ~19.75% dilution stay unresolved. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.65 — the 2026-09-04 session low, beneath a three-month flat range — puts the shares at new lows for the move with no company-dated catalyst before the estimated 2026-11-09 Q3 print; secondary: an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request or a closing date pushed beyond 2026. --- ### ACLS — Axcelis Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Axcelis has stopped falling without being re-bid: $115.57 on 2026-08-28 to $115.08 on 2026-09-04, RSI(14) down to 22.0, 39.9% under the $191.6 high. What is left is a de-rated implant franchise plus an undated China SAMR ruling into the auto-extendable 2026-09-30 outside date, and five sessions clustered near $115 is too small a sample to call a base. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 confirms the 2026-08-19 breakdown had no shelf beneath it and leaves the $90.36 GuruFocus GF Value estimate (2026-08-18) as the nearest published anchor; secondarily, an 8-K disclosing merger termination rather than extension at the 2026-09-30 outside date, or SAMR clearance conditioned on remedies. --- ### ACMR — ACM Research, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The base break published 2026-08-16 has held without extending: the 2026-09-04 close of $74.44 is two cents above the 2026-08-28 weekly close and still under the $76.29 June base low close, with RSI(14) down to 32.8 and no company-dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. Nine brokers carry an average $117.75 target against that tape — a saturated story where coverage keeps widening and the bid does not. Kill line: A weekly close below $70 — the round level beneath the failed $76.29 June base low close — confirms the breakdown is extending rather than basing; secondary break: ACM Shanghai H-share terms priced into this tape, or Q3 non-GAAP gross margin printing under the 42% floor of management's stated band. --- ### ACN — Accenture PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ACN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: The post-crash mean-reversion leg stalled once its funding stopped: the $7.5B buyback's dated demand ended 2026-08-31, price closed $186.72 on 09-04 against $189.61 on 08-28, and Morgan Stanley carried a Hold at $130 on 09-03. Nothing company-dated until the 2026-10-01 FY27 guide, leaving a saturated story trading on outside demand alone. Kill line: A daily close below $176 surrenders the post-2026-08-14 extension including the 08-27 gap and puts price back under the $184.19 27-analyst average current on 09-03; secondarily, September ending with no new board repurchase authorization disclosed, or FY27 local-currency growth guided below 3% on 2026-10-01. --- ### ADI — Analog Devices, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Q3 FY2026 delivered the AI-content proof — revenue $4.02B +40% YoY, Communications +84%, Q4 guided $4.3B ±$100M — but the bid never arrived: Broadcom's 2026-09-02 AI beat and raise (AI revenue $16.7B, Q4 guided $21.7B) left ADI at $362.25 on 2026-09-04, RSI 27.3 and 18.4% under its high, with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-24 Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $345 carries the drawdown from the $444.13 52-week high past 22% and says the 2026-08-19 beat-and-raise plus Broadcom's 2026-09-02 AI guide bought no bid at all. Secondary: any covering shop cutting beneath the $365 low of the currently published target range. --- ### ADSK — Autodesk, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADSK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The asset-operations re-rating leg broke: after the 2026-08-27 beat-and-raise, ADSK fell 4.28% on 2026-08-28 and a further 8.26% to a $217.90 close on 2026-09-04 with no company release attached, taking out the $250 weekly level. Nine published targets from $276 to $355 have drawn no bid, leaving a de-rating-overshoot argument against a broken chart, with Autodesk University on 2026-09-15 the only dated event inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $205 extends the break that began on 2026-08-28 and confirms the multiple is still compressing rather than exhausting; secondary condition: the 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17 Autodesk University window passing with no weekly close reclaiming the $250 pre-print shelf. --- ### ADTN — ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ADTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Networking & optical, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The ADVA margin-recovery re-rate has fully round-tripped and nothing replaced it: with no company release since 2026-08-11, the close walked from $7.72 on 2026-08-28 to $7.10 on 2026-09-04 at RSI(14) 16.7 — the drawdown's most oversold reading — leaving price ten cents above the $7.00 pre-re-rate shelf, a dead narrative with no dated company event before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 breaks the pre-re-rate 2025 shelf and leaves no prior reference level inside the 2025–2026 range; secondary: a discounted takedown priced off the 2026-07-17 shelf registration, or Q3 revenue under the $275.0M guide low at the ~2026-11-03 print. --- ### AEM — Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Gold-equity operating leverage intact, but the macro sponsorship broke on 2026-08-28: Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole "we have work to do" line took over 3% out of gold and reset the shares from $216.06 to $206.25, RSI(14) 91.9 to 66.6. The 2026-09-16 FOMC is the next scheduled test, with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative dependent on the metal alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $199 gives back the entire advance that began when gold cleared $4,200 on 2026-08-05 and returns the shares to the $188 (Barclays) / $179 (J.P. Morgan) published-target zone; spot gold closing a week back under $4,200 alongside it would confirm the metal, not the miner, turned. --- ### AFRM — Affirm Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AFRM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The +80%-off-March recovery re-rate has matured and rolled over: Morgan Stanley pulled its Overweight ('valuation call') on 2026-06-25, and price faded ~30% from the $100 high back onto the reclaimed 200-day near $70 while targets stayed elevated. The ~2026-08-20 Q4 FY26 print — a 15-25% historical gapper — is the next binary and the only near-term re-accelerant. Kill line: A weekly close below $69 loses the reclaimed 200-day and mid-June recovery base, turning the re-rate into a failed reclaim; a weekly close below $55 breaks the May gap shelf. Fundamentally, Q4 FY26 GMV guided below $12.75B, 30+ day delinquency above 3%, or a second top-merchant defection after Walmart breaks the thesis. --- ### AGX — Argan, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: AI-data-center gas-EPC theme still accelerating (4.1+ GW gas backlog, $973.6M cash, zero debt), but AGX has round-tripped from the $805.75 ATH to $563, losing both the ~$675 breakout and ~$600 shelves. Mean reversion toward the pre-run $500s is underway — this is a base-and-reclaim watch (higher low in the $500s, reclaim of $600), not a fresh chase into the ~September Q2 backlog print. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 loses the pre-run consolidation base and argues the supercycle re-rate is unwinding toward the $400s rather than basing; secondary: a second straight QoQ backlog decline toward ~$2.5B (book-to-bill under 1 for two quarters) on the ~September Q2 print, or a top-4 hyperscaler cutting FY27 capex guide >10%. --- ### AGYS — Agilysys, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGYS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-07 Themes: AI enterprise software Thesis: Hospitality vertical-SaaS recovery has re-accelerated into its print: AGYS ran ~+18% to $108.98 (2026-07-10) off the June ~$92 base, clearing the two lowest analyst targets ($100/$110) ahead of a confirmed 2026-07-27 Q1 FY2027 binary that houses the documented lumpy-bookings risk. Narrative intact but stretched — extension into an event rather than a fresh base. Kill line: A daily close below $98 (loses the rising 20-EMA that guided the July run off the ~$92 base); confirmed by a weekly close below $88 (June higher-low breakout shelf fails), or a 2026-07-27 Q1 print that cuts the >30% subscription-growth framing or brings revenue below double-digit YoY growth off the ~$74M Q1 FY2026 base. --- ### AIP — Arteris, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-06) beat and raised — revenue $24.1M +46%, TTM variable royalties $8.6M +65%, FY26 guide lifted to $95-98M — and the stock still closed $28.32 on 2026-08-14, 41.7% under the 6/30 high. The $33 weekly break fired while the fundamental condition did not. Broken structure, no base, no earnings catalyst until ~November. Kill line: A weekly close below $26 extends the post-Q2 de-rating to fresh lows and confirms the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise drew no bid; secondarily, failure to reclaim the ~$34 shelf before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print leaves the structure broken. --- ### AIRO — AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The drone-tariff leg failed on its own date: Section 232 took effect 2026-09-03 but Blue UAS-listed products got a 180-day deferral to ~2027-02-09, and price broke the $8.00 level to close $7.40 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 25.1. What is left is a $163M backlog that excludes US orders, ~$56M July cash and a $(48.7)M H1 operating burn, with no company resolver before the Q3 print — a dead policy narrative on a broken chart. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 removes the last shelf under the 2026-09-04 close of $7.40 and prices the $(48.7)M H1 operating cash outflow ahead of the $163M backlog; secondary, 2026-09-30 passing without a Nord Drone Group closing, or an equity offering filed at these levels. --- ### AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AKBA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: VOICE outcomes win (USRC trial stopped early, June 2026) de-risked Vafseo's dialysis-anemia case, but the tape bled to ~$1.22, only ~48% above the $0.82 low and still fading; the late-July/early-August Q2 print is the binary — commercial-ramp confirmation plus a possible DaVita signal vs another show-me quarter into the 2027 bundle cliff. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.15 loses the post-VOICE base and reopens the $0.82 52-week low; a Q2 print (late-July/early-August 2026) showing Vafseo revenue decelerating with another guidance cut, or the theme flipping to saturated on the 2027 bundle cliff, confirms the value-trap read. --- ### ALGM — Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALGM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The June AI data-center power-attach re-rate has flipped from being marked up to marked down: TD Cowen cut its target to $66 (2026-07-13) and Barclays downgraded to Equal-Weight at $48 (2026-07-20), the first target below the June range — days ahead of a binary ~2026-07-31 Q1 FY2027 print carrying the >20% data-center guide. Fresh entry into a decelerating target band ahead of an earnings gate; the setup does not clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 loses the June reclaim shelf and breaks the re-rate structure; a secondary break is a Q1 FY2027 data-center growth guide below 20% YoY on the ~2026-07-31 print. --- ### ALHC — Alignment Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Profitable-MA-disruptor narrative broke on 2026-07-08: a whistleblower suit from a former Chief Transformation Officer alleges the +88% adjusted-EBITDA inflection was manufactured by reclassifying opex as capex across FY2024-25. Shares -16.7% to $20.03, breakout base gone, five securities-fraud probes open. The ~late-July Q2 print is now a binary under an accounting cloud — a broken-narrative stand-aside, not a dip to buy. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.50 confirms the whistleblower-driven breakdown and opens the pre-Q1 range; secondary trigger is any Q2 disclosure (~2026-07-30) of a restatement, adjusted-EBITDA revision, or FY26 guide cut validating the opex-as-capex reclassification allegation. --- ### ALLE — Allegion Public Limited Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALLE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Post-Q2 gap still open but the bid behind it has drained: $157.12 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 39.3, down from 51.9 on 2026-08-21, and price now 4.6% under the $164.75 consensus target with no broker off Neutral since the 2026-07-23 print. September delivered a dividend declaration and a 2026-09-11 CEO conference slot, neither carrying a number, leaving the electronics run-rate untested until the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $154 hands back the entire 2026-07-23 print-day gain and reopens the unfilled $137–$151 gap window, with the print-day low of $148.72 the next reference beneath; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-22 est.) with electronics organic growth below high-single-digits after the May pre-buy would confirm the mix-shift leg stalling. --- ### ALMS — Alumis Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALMS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The lupus leg is gone: LUMUS missed BICLA at Week 48 and every secondary in the overall 408-patient population on 2026-09-01, and the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $11.10 with RSI(14) at 18.2, 63.4% below the $30.30 high. What is left is a psoriasis pill with an NDA guided to 4Q 2026, $465.87M of net cash, and an IFNGS-high subgroup needing a Phase 3 that has no design and no date — a dead narrative with no company catalyst until the September fireside window. Kill line: A weekly close below $10 says the post-failure repricing has not found a floor beneath the 2026-09-04 close of $11.10; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 fireside window passing with no funded IFNGS-selected Phase 3 plan, or the psoriasis NDA slipping out of 4Q 2026. --- ### ALNT — Allient Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALNT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Physical AI & robotics, Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Record-orders story intact — Q2 2026 bookings $201.3M (+49% YoY), 1.31x book-to-bill, backlog $298.0M — but the supply picture changed after the note: the CEO's trusts sold 70,000 shares at $112.49–$115.765 on 2026-08-10 and 13D holder Juniper sold 165,991 shares into 2026-08-13. Narrative now maturing, with nothing dated to test it until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $96 round-trips the entire post-print re-rating (shares first traded to $96.02 on the 2026-08-05 report); secondary, a Q3 2026 book-to-bill under 1.0x or backlog printing below $298.0M. --- ### ALTO — Alto Ingredients, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ALTO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-01 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Ethanol-to-specialty/low-carbon pivot re-rated ~6x off $0.92, but both fuel catalysts — the June 45Z cash sale and the Russell index add — are spent, and price has round-tripped from the $6.11 July high to ~$4.64, losing the $5.10-$5.20 and $4.80 shelves. Story now hinges entirely on the binary 2026-08-10 Q2 print; no momentum edge and two-sided risk into it. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.40 breaks the last shelf beneath the post-Russell base and confirms the re-rate has rolled into distribution; a 2026-08-10 Q2 print with profit again carried by derivative marks and 45Z credits over core crush (board crush under ~$0.05/gal) is the fundamental break. --- ### AMBQ — Ambiq Micro, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMBQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI chips & memory, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-11) net sales $33.9M, +89.7% YoY and a $36–37M Q3 guide above the $34.0M Street have bought nothing: the 2026-09-04 close of $57.45 sits 36.5% under the $90.48 high with RSI(14) at 31.7. A Form 4 filed 2026-09-02 shows the CEO selling 108,500 shares at $56.15–$58.52 under a 10b5-1 plan adopted 2026-05-15, and nothing company-dated lands before the ~2026-11-10 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 takes the drawdown from the $90.48 high past 40% and removes the $57.34–$57.45 two-week shelf; secondary condition — the ~2026-11-10 Q3 print comes and goes with no weekly close back above the 2026-08-14 level of $64.51. --- ### AMKR — Amkor Technology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: A second anchor — the $1.5B Nvidia advanced-packaging/test partnership (2026-07-23) stacked on the 2026-06-16 TSMC 10-yr Arizona deal — is re-rating Amkor from single-customer Apple OSAT toward US AI back-end anchor. But every catalyst since April has been sold, and the ~2026-07-27 Q2 print is the binary gating a weekly close above the $74-75 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 loses the June recovery base and resumes the post-parabola downtrend; a Q2 miss or soft H2 guide on ~2026-07-27, or the advanced-packaging/AI-infra theme cooling to saturated, compounds the break. --- ### AMN — AMN Healthcare Services URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-02 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: Managed care & health services, Prediction markets & betting Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: Healthcare-staffing cyclical recovery, real but maturing and now at the highs: ~$32.9 (2026-07-24), just off a fresh 52-wk high $36.27 (~+120% off $14.87). Truist's 2026-07-22 lift to a Street-high $40 Buy is the first target leading price, but the broad Street stays Hold ~$25-30 and the binary 2026-08-06 Q2 print — guide already below consensus — is the swing. Paying up into it is an extended entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 breaks the July higher-low base and the rising trend carrying the recovery leg; a close beneath the $26 May breakout shelf resets it to a failed-recovery value trap. Secondary: the 2026-08-06 print guiding Q3 revenue under the ~$630M run-rate, or Jefferies temp-nurse demand negative 3+ straight weeks. --- ### AMRX — Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Legacy-generics-to-specialty re-rate is intact on fundamentals — 2026-07-30 Q2 beat, second FY2026 raise, Kashiv closed 2026-08-10 — but the tape has bled to a 2026-09-04 close of $17.44 with RSI(14) 31.4, and the 2026-09-03 shelf registering all 28,942,098 Kashiv consideration shares for resale puts fresh supply against a calendar with nothing company-dated before the ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 puts price back inside the pre-print range and unwinds the post-Q2 advance; secondary breaks are a ~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3 print cutting the raised FY2026 guide of $3.10–3.20B revenue / $750–780M adjusted EBITDA, or Form 4/13D-G filings showing the 28,942,098 registered resale shares clearing into weakness. --- ### ANAB — AnaptysBio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ANAB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Single-question Chancery stub: the next dated docket step is the defendants' answering brief on 2026-09-25, while June-quarter results are still absent from the public record through 2026-09-06 and momentum has decayed — RSI(14) 38.7 at the 2026-09-04 close of $56.80 versus 52.6 on 2026-08-28 with price flat. The maturing narrative now has a conference slot on 2026-09-15 but no scheduled date for the opinion that decides it. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 breaks the shelf built off the late-July trough near $54 and reads as the market pricing an adverse Chancery ruling; secondarily, the 2026-10-20 post-trial argument passing with the written opinion still unscheduled and no Q2 2026 results on file returns the equity to dateless drift. --- ### AOSL — Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AOSL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Thesis: Post-parabola digestion. The Apr–May "second-order AI power-semi" re-rate (~3x to $54.34) is fully priced, above the $30.50 consensus PT with no fresh company catalyst in 11+ weeks; the 2026-07-15 pop was a newsletter-driven volume spike, not a fundamental spark. The ~2026-08-05 FY26-Q4 print is the next binary — digestion, not a clean entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the May breakout shelf and confirms the full parabola reversal; separately, a FY26-Q4 print (~2026-08-05) showing advanced-computing/AI-data-center revenue decelerating or a soft FQ1 guide breaks the company-confirmed AI-content thesis. --- ### APH — Amphenol Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: AI-interconnect content leg unchanged since the 2026-07-29 print — orders $10.7B, book-to-bill 1.23:1, Q3 guided above consensus — but the bid has not come back: $157.74 on 2026-08-28 is flat on the week while RSI(14) slid from 43.4 to 39.0 and the three-month price change compressed to +8.0%. The 2026-09-02 split is mechanical, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the 2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 on the split-adjusted series loses the shelf that framed the June–August range; the same condition quotes as $152 until the 2026-09-03 ex-split session. Secondary: no reclaim of $84.59 (pre-split $169.18) before the 2026-10-28 Q3 print. --- ### APPS — Digital Turbine, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Post-Q1 re-rating story: the 2026-08-05 print showed revenue $166.0M (+27% YoY), App Growth Platform +56%, adjusted EBITDA +69%, and FY2027 guidance raised to $650–670M — but the shares have given back most of the 43% pop and closed 2026-09-04 at $10.71, 25.6% under the $14.39 high with RSI 36. A maturing narrative with $343.5M of net long-term debt and no company-dated catalyst before roughly 2026-11-11. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 (loses the shelf built after the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and returns price to pre-print territory); secondarily, any cut to the FY2027 $650–670M revenue guide raised on 2026-08-05, or the ~2026-11-11 Q2 print passing without App Growth Platform growth holding. --- ### ARCT — Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Platform-repossession re-rating extended: the CSL exit returned global KOSTAIVE plus flu/RSV/EBV rights with $12M cash and ~$16M of released liabilities against $191.5M cash, and the shares have run 95.5% in three months to a 2026-08-28 close of $15.19 at an RSI(14) of 89.6. The ARCT-810 Phase 2 OTC data and regulatory plan, guided by 2026-09-30, is the binary; the 2026-08-25 SSIEM poster carried no new numbers, leaving a maturing narrative running ahead of disclosure. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 unwinds the 2026-08-19 repossession leg (the 2026-08-21 close was $13.45); secondary, the guided ARCT-810 window closing on 2026-09-30 with no Phase 2 data and no stated regulatory path. --- ### AREC — American Resources Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AREC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Critical-minerals refining milestones keep landing at affiliated ReElement — Marion air permit 2026-08-19, seven commercial hires 2026-08-24, Critical Minerals Institute platinum membership 2026-09-03 — with no bid behind them: $2.43 on 2026-09-04 versus $2.88 on 2026-08-14, RSI(14) 31.7. Nasdaq has now flagged both the March and June 10-Qs, with a single granted cure date of 2026-10-15. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.40 gives back the entire July–August federal-award leg (the 2026-09-04 close was $2.43); secondarily, 2026-10-15 passing with either the March- or June-quarter Form 10-Q still unfiled leaves two live Nasdaq 5250(c)(1) delinquencies and no scheduled disclosure behind them. --- ### ARES — Ares Management Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARES/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Private-credit compounder still saturated rather than broken: FRE compounding near 20% YoY on $671B AUM while the 2026-09-04 close of $140.15 sits 21.3% under the $178.13 trailing high. Nothing resolved since 2026-08-23 — Leonard Green unconfirmed, the $3.4B secondaries sale unpriced — and the only dated events before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print are the 2026-09-16 dividend record date and a CEO appearance at Barclays the same morning. Kill line: A weekly close below $130 ends the post-print recovery and takes the shares under the 2026-08-07 close of $136.85; secondary break if the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print shows a second sequential rise in underperforming investments after the uptick disclosed 2026-07-29. --- ### ARHS — Arhaus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARHS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The $9.00 weekly-close level that defined the post-2026-08-06 repricing has gone: the week ending 2026-08-28 closed at $8.98 with no new company disclosure, leaving the +12.5% written-comp inflection intact on paper but unbid. Two non-webcast conference appearances (Barclays 09-09, Piper Sandler 09-15) are the only dated events before the ~November Q3 print, which is the first test of order conversion and the first gross margin without the $23.8M tariff refund. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.00 erases the entire 2026-08-06 earnings reaction and puts price under the $8 targets Telsey and Piper Sandler carried before their 2026-08-07 raises; secondary condition — Q3 delivered comparable sales at or beneath the -1% guide floor, or client deposits below the $264M reported at 2026-06-30. --- ### ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Advanced-packaging pricing power is real — quotes raised 20%+ (2026-07-01), 2026 capex hiked to US$8.5B, CoWoS-equivalent capacity tripling to 25k wpm — but the tape topped at $45.51 the same day and sits ~15% lower inside a 13% semi drawdown, with a binary Q2 margin print due ~2026-07-30. Fundamentally accelerating, structurally broken, into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 breaks the pre-breakout range floor (2026-06-05 flush low $34.03) and confirms $45.51 as a distribution top; secondarily, Q2 gross margin on ~2026-07-30 below the guided +20–100bps QoQ range, or a Q3 sequential guide under +5% QoQ. --- ### ATEN — A10 Networks Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATEN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical Thesis: AI-security re-rate off the 2026-06-15 TrojAI deal has stalled: ATEN churning ~$35 below the $37.36 ATH, momentum cooling as Mizuho lifts its target to $34 but stays Neutral — analyst catch-up, not fresh conviction. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the next binary; the extension into it is a chase, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the June breakout base, rising 20-EMA and $30–34 consensus shelf, ending the leg. Secondary: an Aug 5 Q2 print with revenue under ~$77M or a cut to the 10–12% FY26 growth guide, or the AI-security theme flipping to fully mainstream/saturated. --- ### ATHM — Autohome Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ATHM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: No company disclosure since the 2026-08-20 print; what moved is the research around it — Citi lifted its target from $17 to $22 on 2026-08-24, Goldman from $19 to $21, and consensus now reads $21.44, below the 2026-09-04 close of $22.03. Enterprise value deepened to -$115.75m on price weakness rather than cash growth, and CPCA's August estimate of -21.7% YoY steepens the decline the leads line tracks, leaving a maturing story with no company input until November. Kill line: A daily close below $21.10 returns price into the 2026-07-13/27 shelf ($21.11–$21.80) and unwinds the 2026-07-28 buyback-authorisation advance; secondarily, a Q3 print in early November disclosing cumulative repurchases at or near the US$43.6m reported through 2026-08-14, or any softening of the "no less than RMB1.5bn" 2026 dividend language. --- ### AUTL — Autolus Therapeutics plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AUTL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: The post-raise re-rating has stalled. After the 2026-08-03 guidance raise to $140–150M and the 2026-08-11 Q2 beat ($45.7M vs $34.0M consensus), the shares set a $2.54 52-week high and then closed $2.24 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) back at 47.9 from 68.6. No company disclosure is dated after 2026-08-11 and the Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.) sits nine weeks out, leaving a maturing narrative to trade on flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.05 ends the leg that began with the 2026-08-03 guidance raise (8.5% from the 2026-09-04 close of $2.24); secondarily, FY2026 AUCATZYL guidance cut below $140M at the Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.), or a 424(b) offering priced off the 2026-04-10 S-3 shelf. --- ### AVR — Anteris Technologies Global Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Post-catalyst drift: the CMS/first-patient/France de-risking sequence is spent, and Q2 (reported 2026-08-12) missed both lines — EPS $(0.30) vs $(0.21), revenue $1.009M vs $1.500M — yet the 2026-08-14 close held $9.40 with RSI 66.9. Nothing dated inside 30 days and a $250M ATM in the money above $9.00. Price-led, maturing, low-conviction. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 loses the TD Securities ATM reference and confirms the July–August recovery as a failed retest; secondary: an 8-K/prospectus supplement or Appendix 4C disclosing heavy ATM issuance into strength, or any PARADIGM enrollment suspension or DSMB action. --- ### AVTR — Avantor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The post-print re-rating extended a third leg: $14.97 on 2026-09-04 versus $14.58 on 2026-08-28, now 4.0% under the $15.60 52-week high, with RSI(14) back up to 71.2 and no company press release since 2026-07-29. Price sits above six of the eight dated broker marks on file, leaving a maturing narrative with nothing company-dated before the ~2026-10-28 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.00 unwinds the late-August extension and puts price back under the $14 broker cluster set on 2026-07-30; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-28 est.) missing the guided ~250 bp organic growth, or the FY2026 organic band walked back below zero. --- ### AVXL — Anavex Life Sciences Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AVXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Crypto exchanges & financials, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: The two overhangs cleared — both delinquent 10-Qs filed 2026-08-28, Nasdaq compliance confirmed 2026-09-02 — and the shares still fell from $3.24 on 2026-08-21 to $2.86 on 2026-09-04. What is left is the 2026-09-24 contested vote: PVG's GOLD slate, backed by 327,344 shares, against the board's WHITE slate, with the 2026-07-31 record date long past, leaving a saturated governance story with one dated resolution. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.75 marks the control premium leaving the price, with the name then trading on the $118.3M June-quarter cash line alone; secondary — the 2026-09-24 meeting passing with the incumbent slate seated and no strategic review announced in the results 8-K. --- ### BABA — Alibaba Group Holding Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BABA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The cloud re-rating leg has become a funding-and-litigation question: the high-$118s shelf broke and the week ended 2026-09-04 closed $113.24, $1.24 above the $112 line, while September delivered a securities-fraud complaint (S.D.N.Y., announced 2026-09-04) instead of commercial news. The 2026-09-22 to 09-24 Apsara Conference is the first company-controlled venue that could put terms on Qwen monetization. Kill line: A weekly close below $112 fails the shelf on its second test after the week ended 2026-09-04 held it by $1.24, reopening the range toward the $95.07 close of 2026-06-25; secondarily, the 2026-09-22 to 09-24 Apsara Conference passing with no disclosed commercial terms for Qwen or the Apple arrangement. --- ### BAK — Braskem S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets, M&A & special situations, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: The subsidiary perimeter resolved first: Braskem Idesa's prepackaged Chapter 11, filed 2026-08-17 in SD Texas, cuts over US$920M of debt and leaves existing shareholders one-third of reorganized equity, with a combined disclosure-statement and confirmation hearing on 2026-09-24. The parent's ~US$10.9B extrajudicial plan still needs class majorities by ~2026-11-22 (est.), and the ADR has only retraced to $1.89 (2026-09-04) from $1.68. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.45 marks the post-filing base as failed; secondary conditions: a 6-K or Updated Plan disclosing an equitization ratio or new-share issuance to financial creditors, or the non-extendable 90-day window from 2026-08-24 closing around ~2026-11-22 without the required majority of each affected class. --- ### BAND — Bandwidth Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BAND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Late-stage small-cap CPaaS squeeze: +360% YoY into the mid-$70s, ~5% below the $79.08 high, with Citizens ($86, 2026-07-20). Riley ($85) both lifting targets in July. A confirmed Q2 print on 2026-07-29 is a binary two trading days out — the tape is extended into the catalyst, not based under it. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 breaks the June momentum leg and opens mean-reversion toward the ~$53 pre-convert base; a 2026-07-29 Q2 print that misses on revenue or EBITDA guidance and gaps the tape lower confirms the stand-aside. --- ### BB — BlackBerry Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BB/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI enterprise software, Cybersecurity, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Q1 FY27 gave the pivot real numbers (QNX $72.3M vs the $60-64M guide, FY27 raised to $594-621M), but the parabola broke: after a $13.59 high the stock fell ~37% to ~$8.54 on a meme unwind plus insider selling. Narrative maturing, price structure broken — a rolled-over retail squeeze, not a fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 forfeits the post-earnings base and opens a full retrace toward the ~$6.20 breakout shelf; secondarily, any walk-back of the raised FY27 QNX $295-312M guide or continued insider distribution. --- ### BBBY — Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Crypto exchanges & financials, Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: Lemonis "Everything Home" roll-up keeps closing deals — Container Store now wholly owned (2026-07-08), TwoPonds folded in (2026-07-01) — but the tape has bled from $5.83 to ~$4.96 and sits on the $4.26 52-week low as shares balloon past 81M. Accelerating M&A on a chart making fresh lows is a value trap; the rescheduled 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the only near-term binary. Kill line: A daily close below $4.26 breaks the 52-week low and confirms downtrend continuation, voiding any long. Absent a reclaim of the declining 50-day MA on a higher low into the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, it stays a falling knife with no momentum edge. --- ### BBY — Best Buy Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-17 Thesis: Tape flipped since early July: BBY broke to a fresh 52-week high $87.35 (~$85.41 on 2026-07-17, +27.6% YTD) on RGB-LED TV exclusivity plus an AI-PC/MacBook refresh cycle. But price sits ~8% above the $79.15 consensus target while Loop Capital and UBS downgrade into strength and the Schulze trust sold 900,000 shares on 2026-07-13/14. Strength without sell-side or insider confirmation. Kill line: A weekly close below $78 fails the July breakout and drops price back into the $72–$78 recovery range it spent June building; secondarily, a Q2 FY27 comp print on ~2026-08-27 below the ~+1% guide would confirm the inflection stalled at one quarter. --- ### BCAX — Bicara Therapeutics Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BCAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: Bifunctional EGFR/TGF-β narrative in HPV-negative head & neck cancer stalled after the ASCO 2026 three-year-OS re-rate: $27.76 close is ~10% off the $30.99 high on roughly half prior turnover, consensus PT ~$31.46 sits only 13% above spot, and the FORTIFI-HN01 interim isn't until mid-2027 — an eleven-month catalyst vacuum the 2026-08-11 Q2 print (enrollment color only) won't fill. Kill line: A weekly close below $25 breaks the June breakout shelf and confirms the post-ASCO leg has rolled over; a FORTIFI-HN01 enrollment slip past the end-2026 "substantial enrollment" guide, or a follow-on equity raise near current levels, compounds it. --- ### BEEM — Beam Global URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BEEM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Beam Global is repricing from EV-charging hardware toward a drone/defence/AI-data-centre battery supplier after the 2026-08-19 Q2 beat ($8.562M vs $8.193M consensus; -$0.14 vs -$0.20 est.) and a 22.7% after-market move to $1.49. Attention is fresh, but backlog fell to $5.4M, cash was $1.0M at 2026-06-30 and $10.0M of ATM capacity is open, leaving no company-dated test until the ~2026-11-13 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.20 fills the 2026-08-19 earnings gap and gives back the full 22.7% post-print advance; secondary, a Q3 2026 print with revenue under $8.562M and period-end backlog under the $5.4M reported at 2026-06-30, or an 8-K registered offering drawing the remaining $10.0M ATM capacity. --- ### BHC — Bausch Health Companies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BHC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: The post-print round trip is complete: the 2026-07-29 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $1.26 vs $1.04 consensus) carried BHC to a $7.90 high and the 2026-08-28 close of $6.32 handed all of it back. What is left is roughly $2.4B of equity on $20,239M of long-term debt principal with 87% of Bausch + Lomb as its main asset, and no company-dated catalyst lands before the Q3 print that calendars carry for 2026-10-29. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.90 surrenders the bulk of the +19.0% three-month advance and ends the post-print leg; secondarily, a Q3 print around 2026-10-29 that trims the FY2026 ex-B+L adjusted EBITDA range of $3.025–3.1B or cuts the maintained 2027 $2.7B outlook. --- ### BIOA — BioAge Labs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIOA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: ESC Congress came and went 2026-08-28 to 08-31 with no ZEUS dataset and no substitute venue named, so the mechanism question stays open into the only binary left — QUELL-CV hsCRP topline guided to 2H 2026. The sole company action since the 2026-08-05 Q2 print is a 2026-09-02 release scheduling three September fireside chats, a conference circuit with no data attached, on a dead narrative holding a two-week shelf just above $9. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.00 breaks the shelf that has held from the 2026-08-21 close of $9.48 through 2026-09-04 and puts the $4.11 low reported on 2026-07-31 back in scope; secondarily, the September conference block ending 2026-09-16 with no QUELL-DME dosing confirmation and no QUELL-CV date leaves no company-dated event before the Q3 10-Q. --- ### BIRK — Birkenstock Holding plc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BIRK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The $36 weekly break played through: the last completed close was $34.00 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 28.4, leaving the May 2026 low of $31.12 as the only structure left in the fiscal-year range. Guidance still reads 15% cc growth and ≥€710M adjusted EBITDA after the 2026-08-13 raise, but the price narrative is dead and no company-dated event exists before the ~mid-December FY2026 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 loses the May 2026 low of $31.12 and turns the FY26 range into a distribution top; secondary condition — 2026-09-30 fiscal year end passes with no Q4/FY2026 results date announced, leaving no company-dated event before roughly mid-December. --- ### BJRI — BJ's Restaurants, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BJRI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The momentum leg is finished: a 2026-09-04 weekly close at $59.89 gave back the $60.77 pre-print shelf and the whole 2026-07-30 guidance-raise re-rating, with no analyst revision since 2026-07-31. What is left is a reset case — Q2 comps +6.5%, FY guide raised, RSI 34.3 Kill line: A weekly close below $57 confirms the market is de-rating the 2026-07-30 guidance raise rather than digesting a pullback — it puts price under both the 2026-09-03 director purchase at $59.50 and the $60.77 pre-print shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 Barclays fireside passing with no quarter-to-date traffic colour and no estimate revision. --- ### BKNG — Booking Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKNG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: The published $200 weekly level failed — the 2026-09-04 close was $193.29, giving back the whole post-Q2 advance while the covering board widened to 37 analysts at an average $236.70 target. What remains is a saturated capital-return compounder story with no company-dated event before Q3 results, estimated 2026-11-04; the 2026-09-11 dividend record date resolves nothing about room nights. Kill line: A weekly close below $188 puts price under the lowest target on the 37-analyst board (Bernstein, 2026-08-26) and extends the break of the $200 shelf lost on 2026-09-04; Q3 room nights printing at or below +3% at the ~2026-11-04 release would confirm the volume leg behind the buyback arithmetic is breaking. --- ### BKSY — BlackSky Technology Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BKSY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-16 Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Gen-3 subscription ramp landed in Q2 (2026-08-06): revenue $33.316M vs $30.68M est, +50% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $4.7M, FY26 guide affirmed at $130–150M. But EPS missed at $(0.54) vs $(0.36), cash is $36.9M against a $50–60M capex guide, and the $30.92 close on 2026-08-14 sits 40% under the $51.63 high with RSI 79.1 and a live $250M ATM. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 ends the post-Q2 recovery leg; secondarily, a Gen-3 5/6 launch window slipping out of Q3 2026 with no replacement date, or FY2026 revenue guidance cut beneath the affirmed $130–150M band. --- ### BMA — Banco Macro S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The company story is still broken — Q2 NPLs 6.25%, coverage 95.39%, FY cost of risk guided to 6.5–7% on 2026-08-20 — but the ADR recovered to $78.57 on 2026-09-04 from $72.84 on 2026-08-21 as country risk fell from 517bp to below 500 on 2026-09-02, reclaiming the $78 shelf lost on 2026-08-14. The bid is sovereign-spread beta; the next company datapoint is Q3 (~2026-11-19). Kill line: A weekly close below $72 puts the ADR back inside the August capitulation range — under the 2026-08-21 close of $72.84 and against the $71.27 window low — and ends the shelf-reclaim leg; secondarily, INDEC printing August CPI at or above 2.1% MoM on 2026-09-10 with core above 1.8%. --- ### BRBR — BellRing Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The $10.40 weekly-close shelf broke by a cent on 2026-09-04 at $10.39, with RSI(14) at 52.6 — a reset from drift rather than from a bid. The company news room has been silent on corporate items since the 2026-08-04 Q3 EBITDA cut to $275–295M, and the only new flow is a third plaintiff-firm notice (Kuehn Law, 2026-08-12). Nothing company-dated lands before the ~mid-November Q4 print, leaving a dead narrative whose 2026-10-01 price increase cannot reach reported numbers until February 2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.00 removes the handle the entire post-2026-08-04 range has held and confirms the one-cent $10.40 shelf break of 2026-09-04 was directional. Secondary: a fourth reduction at the ~mid-November Q4 report — FY2026 adjusted EBITDA under $275M, or an initial FY2027 guide beneath that range. --- ### BRKR — Bruker Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRKR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, AI chips & memory, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Post-ASMS instrument re-rate broke back toward the $64.54 high and added a second leg: semiconductor-metrology strength (orders +20% YoY) pulled Leerink to $70 and top targets to $65–70. But at ~$62 the name sits ~13% over its 50-DMA and above the $56.79 consensus mean, into a binary Aug 4 Q2 print for a story that isn't earnings-driven — strong tape, rich fresh entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 loses the June higher-low shelf and the rising 50-day line, reopening mean-reversion toward the pre-ASMS low-$40s base; secondarily, an Aug 4 Q2 print with organic revenue still negative, or a priced common-equity takedown off the June universal shelf, breaks the re-rate. --- ### BROS — Dutch Bros Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BROS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-12 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Drive-thru coffee comps re-accelerating (Q1 +8.3%, FY guide raised) and the sell-side is now catching up — Stephens initiated Overweight $80, Morgan Stanley to $88 in mid-July. But June's run to ~$72 cooled to the mid-$60s, and the 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary. Fundamentals accelerating, positioning maturing. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 forfeits the May–June breakout base and ends the momentum leg; a secondary break would be Q2 same-shop comps decelerating below the raised +4–6% FY guide on the 2026-08-05 print, or targets ceasing to rise as the theme saturates. --- ### BSIN — Big Sky Industrial Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Industrial power & grid, Critical materials & rare earths, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Thesis: Helium/45Q legacy pivot at a new high — $1.54 on 2026-09-04, 2.5% off the $1.58 52-week high — with no company disclosure since the 2026-08-20 Sidoti deck, leaving a maturing narrative whose next dated test is the Q3 print (~2026-11-10). Only an unscheduled EPA MRV approval can land inside 30 days; cash was $4.9M at 2026-08-04 against a plant two-thirds built. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.30 puts price back under the whole band of August closes struck after the 2026-08-11 print ($1.43 closing high 2026-08-14, $1.40 on 2026-08-21); secondary: an offering, S-3 takedown or fresh equity-facility draws, or the Q3 print (~2026-11-10) moving commissioning out of 2026 or first revenue past Q1 2027. --- ### BTBT — Bit Digital, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTBT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-02 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-12 Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Both legs of the wrapper are now rolling over: WhiteFiber (WYFI, ~70.5% owned) de-rated from $38.50 to $27.57 as the June neocloud mania cooled, and BTBT slid to ~$1.50, a step above its $1.25 low. SOTP discount still ~49% (~$745.6M WYFI stake + ~$295M ETH vs ~$530M cap) but no 2026 catalyst closes it — a falling-knife value/event, not the velocity edge. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.40 opens the $1.25 52-week low and confirms the permanent value-trap re-rate; secondary conditions: a WYFI weekly close below $25 (stake-value collapse) or ETH back under $1,700, either of which validates the discount rather than narrowing it. --- ### BTDR — Bitdeer Technologies Group URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTDR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Spring miner-to-AI re-rate has fully unwound: BTDR lost the $15 shelf to $12.56 (2026-07-09) as AI-cloud ARR plateaued at ~$69M for a 2nd month. A signed-but-not-effective Tydal colocation lease (2026-06-29) and a $36M Nevada plant are the replacement legs, but BTC in the low-$60s and a broken structure say the base has not formed, so there is nothing here to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 confirms the breakdown from the lost $15 spring shelf; secondarily, the ~mid-July June production update printing AI-cloud ARR under the stalled ~$69M run-rate, the Tydal lease conditions precedent lapsing without becoming effective, or BTC sustaining below $55K forcing miner-complex liquidation. --- ### BTE — Baytex Energy Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BTE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-10-04 Thesis: July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock. Dormant oil-beta is now drifting into a ~2026-07-30 Q2 print that isn't the driver; oil and price structure both have to re-fire before the setup is worth chasing. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 on the US-listed shares breaks the early-July oversold base and forfeits the reclaimed 200-day line; secondary confirm is WTI losing $70 as Hormuz traffic normalizes and Iranian barrels return under a renewed sanctions waiver. --- ### BVS — Bioventus Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BVS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The M&A leg from the 2026-08-05 unsolicited-proposal disclosure is intact but undated: 17 sessions, no committee update, and price back to the 2026-08-28 close of $13.84, 9.3% under the $15.26 high, with RSI(14) unwound 70.5 → 58.1 → 47.9. No analyst action since the 2026-08-17 Canaccord $19 / Cantor $15 split, and no scheduled company event before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with a thinning bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 round-trips the 2026-08-05 strategic-review gap and returns price under the pre-announcement $12.53 shelf; the independent committee concluding its review with no transaction, or a cut to the reaffirmed FY26 $600-610M net-sales range, is the confirming secondary condition. --- ### BWIN — The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BWIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: Take-private premium is bleeding while sell-side chases it higher: price slipped to $27.25 (2026-07-17) from $28.41 (2026-07-02) even as KBW went to $31 and JPM to $30. Nothing is signed, and the 2026-07-30 Q2 print (guide $485–490M, mid-single-digit organic) is the binary that either funds the deal math or collapses it. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 unwinds the take-private premium; a 2026-07-30 print missing the $485–490M guide or organic below mid-single digits breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### BXC — BlueLinx Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The re-rating leg broke: the 2026-08-28 close of $79.42 lost the $80 shelf and sits under the whole $83–$84 target band raised 2026-08-05/06, while July new home sales at 607,000 SAAR (-10.5% MoM, Census 2026-08-25) cut against the Q3 volume framing. RSI(14) 25.3 with no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print leaves a broken price leg and only the $72.68 post-print reference below. Kill line: A weekly close below $72 fills the entire post-print re-rating gap (the first close after the 2026-08-04 beat was $72.68) and leaves no structure before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 report; a Q3 specialty gross margin at or under 18.0% with adjusted EBITDA below the $28.4M ex-duty Q2 base would date the beat as one-time. --- ### CABA — Cabaletta Bio, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CABA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Autoimmune CD19 CAR-T reset story, now funded — $225.1M cash at 2026-06-30, runway into mid-2027 — but registrational RESET-Myositis data are guided to mid-2027 and the BLA to 2H27, so no clinical datapoint resolves inside 30 days. September brings four investor conferences (2026-09-08 to 2026-09-16) into an RSI(14) of 69.3, leaving a maturing narrative running on flow and financing rather than data. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.90 breaks the May 2026 registered-direct shelf where 51.7M shares were placed; secondarily, the Q3 print moving RESET-Myositis data off mid-2027 or SSc-ILD cohort initiation out of 4Q26. --- ### CACI — CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CACI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The post-guide re-rate is unwinding rather than extending: the 2026-09-04 close of $623.61 gave up the ~$646 post-print shelf, RSI(14) has fallen from 82.3 on 2026-08-13 to 41.0, and the 2026-09-01 stopgap funds the Pentagon only to 2026-12-11 — leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-21 Q1 FY2027 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $600 (the ~$640–646 post-guide shelf already went on the 2026-09-04 close of $623.61; $600 is the next round-number reference and puts the 2026-08-05 guide-day gap in play). Secondary: Q1 FY2027 book-to-bill under 1.0x at the ~2026-10-21 print. --- ### CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAKE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Casual-dining re-rate got a genuine second leg: Citi's 2026-07-10 raise to a street-high $90 (Buy) on a rewards/app traffic-inflection thesis gapped shares 7% to all-time highs (~$86, 52wk high $86.66 on 2026-07-18). For the first time the street high sits above price. But the confirmed 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the binary test — 7 trading days out, with price ~31% above the June base and Q1 North Italia traffic still -6%. Kill line: A weekly close below $76 closes the 2026-07-10 Citi gap and removes the traffic-inflection leg. Secondary: flagship comps turning negative or North Italia traffic staying at/below -6% on the 2026-07-28 Q2 print, or a cut to the 25bps portfolio margin-expansion target. --- ### CAL — Caleres Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Q2 was pulled forward one day to 2026-09-09 (announced 2026-09-01), compressing the read into a single session: FY2026 consensus of $1.62 adjusted EPS sits at the top of the company's own $1.40–$1.65 guide, Famous Footwear is guided down mid-single-digits into a channel JD Sports flagged at -6.8% North America LFL on 2026-08-20, and the ~$57.8M IEEPA refund still has no collection date. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.70 undercuts the 2026-07-24 close of $11.78 and gives up the July base the August advance launched from; secondary confirmation if the 2026-09-09 Q2 print passes with a Famous Footwear comparable worse than the guided down mid-single-digits, an FY guide cut below $1.40, or no IEEPA collection timeline. --- ### CARG — CarGurus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CARG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The post-print re-rate keeps bleeding out: $38.98 on 2026-08-07 to $36.56 on 2026-08-28, RSI(14) down to 44.0, with the $39.03 high unretaken. Seven bank targets sit at $39–$44 and no bank has moved a rating; five insiders sold in August and a fresh Form 144 landed 2026-08-28. Nothing company-dated arrives before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative whose only near-term inputs are third-party used-car data. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 unwinds the post-print re-rate and returns price beneath the 2026-07-17 close of $35.00 with the $39.03 high unretaken; a Q3 print at or under the $253.5M revenue guide floor, or a second consecutive sub-$50M repurchase quarter, would confirm the break is fundamental rather than positional. --- ### CCXI — Churchill Capital Corp XI URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CCXI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: De-SPAC humanoid pure-play still bleeding premium: $17.07 (2026-08-14) → $14.57 (2026-08-21) → $13.40 (2026-09-04), RSI(14) down to 25.9. The only company-dated item since the 2026-07-14 confidential S-4 is an 2026-08-27 investor-conference release; no public S-4, no proxy, no vote date, so everything above the ~$10 trust reference is premium on an undated event, leaving a maturing narrative whose next test is the September conference window. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 ends the June-to-August advance and leaves roughly $3 of premium over the ~$10 trust reference; the September conference window closing on 2026-09-29 with still no publicly filed S-4 and no announced shareholder-vote date is the confirming secondary condition. --- ### CDNL — Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDNL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Post-blowoff digestion is deepening: the ~4x data-center site-work roll-up has bled from a $96 high back to its $63 average analyst target, now below the $73 secondary price and the 50-DMA. Q1 organic +64% and an $854M backlog keep fundamentals accelerating, but the momentum leg is broken and Zacks just cut it to Hold. No clean entry until it bases above $60 or the ~Aug 11 Q2 print resets expectations. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 forfeits the entire pre-June base and confirms mean reversion through the $63 average analyst target toward the low-$50s and the $51.30 insider shelf; secondary breaks are an FY26 guide cut under $675M or Q2 organic growth decelerating below ~40% YoY on the ~Aug 11 print. --- ### CDW — CDW Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CDW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Second-order AI-server reseller whose ~37% recovery off the $97 low has stalled: a mid-July push to $144 round-tripped to $133 by 2026-07-17, right in the fairway of the ~$145 consensus target. The re-rate (JPM, MS $170, Citi $145) is largely priced; the 2026-08-05 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the laggard re-accelerates or fades. Kill line: A weekly close below $120 turns the recovery into a failed bounce, losing the late-May breakout shelf and flattened 20-EMA; secondarily a 2026-08-05 Q2 print with net-sales growth decelerating to low-single-digits or gross margin below 21.0%, or the AI-datacenter theme flipping to saturated. --- ### CECO — CECO Environmental Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CECO/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-28 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: 2nd-order AI-power name — Q1 orders +97% YoY and a first-ever >$1B backlog (2026-04-28) feed the datacenter/electrification capex wave, and the closed Thermon merger doubled EBITDA. But price rolled over ~25% off the $101.24 ATH to $75.63, sliding into a 2026-08-06 Q2 print that is the next binary. Structure is digesting, not accelerating. Kill line: A weekly close below $72 undercuts the post-merger digestion floor and the June breakout retest; secondarily, a 2026-08-06 Q2 print with book-to-bill below 1.5x or orders decelerating YoY, or an FY26 guide cut under the $1.275B revenue / $195M adjusted-EBITDA floor. --- ### CERS — Cerus Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CERS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Two lower weekly closes now sit under the broken $2.70 shelf — $2.65 on 2026-08-28, then $2.59 on 2026-09-04 — with RSI(14) at 24.3 and an empty news tape behind the decline. The operating record is unchanged (FY26 product guide $229–231M, nine straight positive adjusted-EBITDA quarters), but nothing is dated before the estimated 2026-10-29 Q3 print, leaving a broken structure with only flow setting the price. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.45 confirms the broken $2.70 shelf as trend rather than overshoot (5.4% under the 2026-09-04 close of $2.59, 25.3% under the $3.28 high); secondary: the estimated 2026-10-29 Q3 print cutting FY26 product revenue under $229M, or the Q4 2026 RedeS window passing with no data and no restated date. --- ### CEVA — CEVA, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CEVA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-25 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-26 Themes: AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Edge-AI IP momentum leg has broken: June's reclaim to within ~3% of the $51.60 high failed, and the mid-July AI-capex scare (Moonshot model) drove shares back through the ~$44 base to the mid-$30s. Sell-side still carries $48–$55 targets, but the tape is rolling over into a binary 2026-08-10 Q2 print — a stand-aside, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 breaks the July support shelf (July-25 low $35.85) and confirms the failed-breakout unwind toward the low-$30s/high-$20s; a secondary flag is the edge-AI/physical-AI licensing theme cooling to dead as the mid-July AI-capex scare keeps semis under distribution and target revisions stall. --- ### CGC — Canopy Growth Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CGC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-12 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cannabis reclassification, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: The rescheduling binary CGC trades on came and went: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with no verdict, briefs due 2026-08-17 and the ALJ recommendation undated into H2 2026, likely litigated into 2027. Shares closed $0.89 on 2026-07-24, pinned against the $0.84 52-week low. A Canadian LP collects no 280E relief; the event-option is bleeding out. Low conviction. Kill line: A daily close below $0.84 prints a fresh 52-week low and confirms the rescheduling event-option has bled out; secondarily, the ALJ recommendation slipping past the 2026-08-17 brief deadline openly into 2027, or the theme flipping to saturated/dead. --- ### CHYM — Chime Financial, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHYM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Busted-IPO fintech: operations accelerating (Q1 rev +25% to $647M, first GAAP profit, FY guide raised to $2.66–2.69B) but the stock trades ~19% below its $27 IPO and bases near post-IPO lows — a compressed multiple, not an accelerating momentum leg. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is the binary that decides re-rate vs value trap; no price confirmation yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.88 (the post-IPO all-time low) takes the base to fresh lows and confirms the value-trap read; secondarily, an August 5 Q2 print that misses the raised $2.66–2.69B FY guide or shows member growth decelerating below ~15% YoY. --- ### CLDX — Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLDX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Single-asset binary: the Phase 3 EMBARQ-CSU1/CSU2 topline guided to September/October 2026 is the entire equity, and the window opens within days. The pre-readout re-rating is built and cooling — $39.12 on 2026-08-28, 12.8% under the $44.87 52-week high, RSI(14) at 31.1 versus 60.7 on 2026-08-21, with no company release since the 2026-08-06 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $35 gives back the shelf built between the 2026-07-21 prurigo nodularis failure and the 2026-08-07 target cluster; secondarily, 2026-10-31 passing with no EMBARQ-CSU topline and no reaffirmation of the September/October guidance. --- ### CLFD — Clearfield, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLFD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-09 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The May earnings-miss squeeze has fully round-tripped to a dead tape in the mid-$30s, below the ~$36 gap base, with the retail-sentiment narrative spent. The sole live driver is the 2026-08-05 fiscal-Q3 print — guided to a sharp sequential ramp ($42-46M off a $34.4M trough) the tape refuses to pay for ahead of time, into a name with steady insider selling and BEAD revenue slipping to FY2027. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 confirms the full round-trip of the May squeeze and opens the high-$20s toward the $23.76 annual low; a fiscal-Q3 net-sales print under the $42M guide floor on 2026-08-05, book-to-bill below 1.0, or BEAD deferred past FY2027 hardens the break. --- ### CLOV — Clover Health Investments, Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The $4.00 shelf named as the break has held — a 2026-09-04 close of $4.25 with RSI(14) back to 48.9 from 36.3 — but the leg is now event-dependent: CMS's Eleventh Circuit opening brief leads with a venue argument that could vacate the 4.5-Star judgment without reaching the merits, and the only company-dated events inside 30 days are the 2026-09-15 Jefferies and 2026-09-16 Deutsche Bank appearances, both fronted by an interim CFO. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 gives up the shelf built after the 2026-06-10 court-ruling session; secondary conditions are an Eleventh Circuit order vacating the S.D. Ga. Judgment (including on CMS's venue argument), or the October CMS release displaying contract H5141 below 4.5 Stars for payment year 2027. --- ### CLPT — ClearPoint Neuro, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLPT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Picks-and-shovels delivery play on CNS gene therapy: ClearPoint's SmartFlow cannula and MRI navigation are the standard route to the brain for uniQure's AMT-130 Huntington's BLA (soft Q3-2026 window). The June re-rate held near $18.72 (7/02) but the theme has cooled to maturing, with no dated catalyst inside 30 days except the ~mid-August Q2 print. A base-watch, not a momentum entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 loses the post-catalyst breakout shelf (6/18 gap close $16.81) and unwinds the June re-rate; secondary breaks: the AMT-130 Huntington's BLA slips the Q3-2026 window or draws an FDA refuse-to-file, or FY2026 revenue guide is cut below the $52M floor. --- ### CLS — Celestica, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLS/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Mega-cap AI platforms Thesis: AI-datacenter EMS picks-and-shovels story still fundamentally climbing after the 2026-04-27 Q1 crush (rev +53% to $4.05B, FY26 guide raised to $19B), but the tape broke ~21% off its $474 June high and heads into a binary 2026-07-27 Q2 print where consensus EPS $2.10 sits below the company's own $2.14–$2.34 guide — an in-line number disappoints. The clean read is the post-print reaction, not a pre-print grab. Kill line: A weekly close below $330 loses the pre-May breakout base and turns the June correction into a completed top; reinforced by a 2026-07-27 Q2 print with CCS YoY growth under ~50%, CCS margin below the 8.6% Q1 mark, any cut to the $19B FY2026 / $10.15 EPS guide, or a hyperscaler trimming 2026 capex. --- ### CNMD — CONMED Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CNMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Fifty-seven days have passed without a process headline: the 2026-07-10 sale report is still the only leg, and price has started giving ground — $49.32 on 2026-09-04 against the $51.07 close of 2026-08-21, back onto the August shelf. No sell-side action since 2026-07-30 and nothing company-dated inside 30 days, with the Q3 print not due until ~2026-10-28, leaving a maturing narrative holding a premium on silence. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 surrenders the August shelf and puts price back inside the $43-$49 published target range; secondarily, an 8-K concluding the strategic review with no sale, or the ~2026-10-28 Q3 call passing with no disclosed bidder, timetable or process update. --- ### COCO — The Vita Coco Company, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cybersecurity Thesis: Q2 FY26 (2026-07-23) beat on every line — net sales $216.2M +28.1%, EPS $0.82 vs ~$0.55, FY guide raised to $790–805M — and the stock still closed $62.25 on 2026-08-07, -25.9% from the post-print high. Beat-and-raise absorbed by sellers; no dated catalyst until an unannounced Q3 print, and the ~$60 April gap shelf is the last structure standing. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 fills the late-April Q1 breakaway-gap shelf and retraces the entire post-Q1 re-rate. Secondary: a Q3 FY26 print with gross margin at or under the ~40% FY guide once the ~700bps tariff-refund benefit is out. --- ### CODI — Compass Diversified URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CODI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The post-Q2 re-rating is being given back: after a 2026-08-11 high of $12.71 on TD Cowen's $12.50→$18. Riley's upgrade to $15, price closed $11.45 on 2026-08-28 with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print. Four insiders bought between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-18, all above that close, leaving a maturing narrative whose next test is whether the $11 pre-print shelf holds. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 returns price beneath its 2026-08-07 pre-print reference and gives back the entire post-Q2 advance; secondary condition, the $320-365M FY2026 Subsidiary Adjusted EBITDA outlook being cut at the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print with no subsidiary sale process disclosed. --- ### COMP — Compass, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COMP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-28 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Now stretched into a binary ~2026-07-29 Q2 print ($4.0–4.2B guide) with an open NY AG antitrust probe. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 loses the luxury-demand breakout above the June AG-dip shelf and reopens the ~$9.78 June low; a formal NY AG divestiture/CID demand or a Q2 revenue miss versus the $4.0–4.2B guide is the secondary break. --- ### CORT — Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CORT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-24 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-12-17 Thesis: Lifyorli oncology launch (approved 2026-03-25, NCCN preferred) re-accelerated the tape to fresh 52-week highs near $92, and the 2026-06-17 Cushing's relacorilant resubmission (~Dec PDUFA) adds second-approval optionality. But a fresh entry is +56% above the 50-day into an ~2026-08-05 Q2 print the run already front-ran — a probe or pullback buy at 228x, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $80 loses the late-June breakout shelf and rising 20-EMA that define this leg; a refuse-to-file or second CRL on the 2026-06-17 Cushing's resubmission, or a Q2 revenue miss around 2026-08-05, confirms the break. --- ### CPIX — Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CPIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Deal-arb thesis is now spent: the $100M Apotex asset sale closed 2026-07-01 after a 99.84% shareholder vote on 2026-06-24, so the dated binary that drove the ~3.2x off $1.85 to a $7.36 high is consumed. What remains is a cash-rich clinical shell (~$100M cash vs ~$89M cap) with undated ifetroban Phase 2 readouts — a net-cash value story, not accelerating momentum — and ~49K sh/day makes it un-buildable at size. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 loses the post-deal base and prior breakout shelf, confirming the re-rate is unwinding toward the pre-announcement zone; secondarily, a use-of-proceeds decision that channels the ~$100M into trial burn with no return of capital. --- ### CRL — Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: The August demand-recovery repricing is complete and the leg now rests on one date: the 2026-09-24 Investor Day, where long-term financial targets get reset. The 2026-09-04 close of $288.5 sits 3.4% under the $298.58 52-week high with RSI(14) back to 51.5 from 86.6 on 08-21 and no rating action since TD Cowen's $300 on 08-10, leaving a maturing narrative whose next bid has to come from the framework itself. Kill line: A weekly close below $280 loses the August shelf (the 2026-08-14 close was $280.05) that the run to the $298.58 52-week high was built on; secondary, the 2026-09-24 Investor Day passing without long-term growth or margin targets above what the $282-$310 August target band already assumes. --- ### CROX — Crocs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CROX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Legacy-brand turnaround with the raised guide intact and the tape still unwinding: after the 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise (FY2026 adj EPS $13.70–$14.00), closes went $131.72 (08-14) → $122.11 (08-21) → $117.53 (09-04), RSI(14) 26.9, -16.8% off the $141.19 high, with the whole three-month gain given back. The 2026-09-15 Piper Sandler appearance is the only company-dated event before the expected 2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $112 forfeits the June 2026 breakout shelf and round-trips the recovery leg; secondary: the 2026-09-15 Piper Sandler appearance passes with no change to the FY2026 framing while weekly closes keep stepping down, or Crocs Brand North America prints below zero YoY at the expected 2026-10-29 Q3 report. --- ### CRS — Carpenter Technology Corp URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Defense & aerospace, Critical materials & rare earths, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-10-22 Thesis: Aero-defense superalloy pricing cycle intact (three contracts at >30% hikes; Q4 op-income guide $205-210M, +37% YoY), but the July flush to $532 has been bought back to ~$603 straight into the 2026-07-30 Q4 print — now four sessions out and binary. JPMorgan flagged a Negative Catalyst Watch and the sell-side is fully caught up; stretched into the top of the range. Kill line: A weekly close below $532 loses the mid-July flush low and the recovery structure, ending the momentum leg (below the ~$505 June breakout shelf kills the cycle base); a secondary break is the 2026-07-30 print showing SAO adjusted operating margin rolling over from the record 35.6%, or JPMorgan's Negative Catalyst Watch converting to an outright downgrade. --- ### CRTO — Criteo S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRTO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI enterprise software Thesis: Takeover-premium leg is dead and nothing replaced it: 55 days after the 2026-07-06 Vista/Quinti report no party has confirmed anything, and the freshest headlines are a Huber Research double downgrade (2026-08-24) and a Zacks cut to Strong Sell (2026-08-26). The tape stalled rather than based — $17.46 on 2026-08-28 against $17.44 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) 34.0 → 45.5 — with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $16.10 — the shelf the shares broke to on the 2026-08-05 guidance cut — breaks the post-cut structure and shows neither the repurchase nor residual deal optionality is holding a floor; secondary, the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print passing with contribution ex-TAC under the $237M low end and still no board statement on the 2026-07-06 approach. --- ### CRVS — Corvus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CRVS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The 2026-08-27 Blood publication put final Phase 1 numbers on soquelitinib — median OS 28.1 months, 9 responses among 24 less-pretreated patients at 200 mg BID — and the tape did not pay for it: $14.16 on 2026-08-28 versus $14.46 on 08-21, RSI(14) 54.1 versus 62.4. Peer-reviewed validation arrived with no company-dated readout before Angel cohort 1 in late 2026, leaving a maturing narrative grinding on flow above the $12.50 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.50 breaks the June–August recovery shelf and re-opens the May trough near $10; secondarily, Angel cohort-1 atopic dermatitis data slipping past 2026 year-end, or the ~November Q3 update moving the Q1 2027 PTCL futility date again, would leave no dated clinical event before 2027. --- ### CSCO — Cisco Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-26 Themes: AI enterprise software, Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Legacy-networker AI re-rate intact and now at its binary: the $118–120 shelf held through July, price closed $121.43 on 2026-08-07 with RSI(14) at 78.4, and five sell-side target raises landed 07-22 → 08-06 (Citi $112→$139) ahead of the Q4 FY26 print on 2026-08-12 after the close. The unresolved number is the FY27 AI-revenue guide against the ≥$6B indication. Kill line: A weekly close below $117 (loses the $118–120 post-earnings breakout shelf and fully retraces the 2026-05-13 gap leg), or a 2026-08-12 FY27 AI-revenue guide beneath the ≥$6B indication / a cut to the $9B FY26 AI-infrastructure order guide. --- ### CSIQ — Canadian Solar Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CSIQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Solar & clean energy, Cyclical industrials, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: The reshoring re-rating broke at the 2026-08-27 print: Q2 EPS -$1.40 vs -$1.18 consensus, Q3 revenue guided $1.3–1.5B against $1.813B consensus, and the 2026-08-28 close of $13.14 is under the $14 shelf. What replaces it is a policy leg — Section 232 module floors of $0.38/W effective 2026-12-04 against a $4.5B US-made backlog carrying no 232 adjustment yet — with no company-dated event before 2026-10-01. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 confirms no base formed after the 2026-08-27 print and leaves the multi-year $9–10 area as the next reference; secondary condition is Q3 revenue landing at or below the low end of the $1.3–1.5B guide, or management again declining to quantify a Section 232 adjustment to the $4.5B domestic-module backlog. --- ### CVLG — Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CVLG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Freight & logistics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: The margin-inflection leg broke at its own catalyst: Q2 (2026-07-29) adjusted OR 95.9% vs 94.6% PY — second straight quarter of YoY deterioration — revenue $332.9M missed $340.4M, and Stephens cut its 23-day-old target to $54 on 07-31. Price has round-tripped the entire re-rating (-30.5% from $49.88), RSI(14) 12.6, with no company catalyst before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 completes the round-trip of the 2026 advance and loses the spring consolidation, leaving the $18 base as the next reference; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-28 est.) with adjusted operating ratio again above 94.6% year-over-year, or a second sell-side target cut below $54. --- ### DDD — 3D Systems Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DDD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: June's $50M raise at $3.05 (16.4M sh) is already underwater: shares last $2.775 (2026-07-02), below the offering floor, with ~$50M shelf undrawn and soft Q2 guidance (rev $93–95M, adj. EBITDA still negative) into the 2026-08-10 print. A post-dilution downtrend with no theme acceleration — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.50 confirms no base is forming and the offering overhang has fully won, extending the post-dilution downtrend; only a high-volume reclaim of $3.05 (back above the offering) and then $5 (Cantor PT), with the shelf exhausted, flips the read constructive. --- ### DFDV — DeFi Development Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DFDV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Levered Solana proxy still trading below the SOL it holds — 0.66× on The Block's 2026-09-06 page — but the funding mix flipped: the 2026-09-04 pricing of 1,375,000 perpetual preferred shares at $8.00 against a $10.00 stated amount, at a 13.00% initial coupon, adds a permanent cash claim senior to common into an RSI-80 tape with no company-dated catalyst between 2026-10-01 and the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.90 unwinds the advance that ran into the 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-04 preferred announcements and puts price back under the 2026-08-28 reference close; secondary condition — the 30-day over-allotment window on 206,250 preferred shares lapsing ~2026-10-03 with the multiple to NAV still under the 0.66× of 2026-09-06. --- ### DFTX — Definium Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DFTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Voyage hit at p<0.0001 on 2026-08-12 and the tape has sold it since: $40.98 on 2026-08-28 versus the $46.14 pre-readout close, RSI 39.8, the $48.45 high untouched. Panorama topline (245 participants, 2:1:2, 50 µg arm) is guided to September and the conference window opens 2026-09-01, leaving a saturated narrative with 17 covering houses and no new bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $38 hands back the entire post-Voyage leg and loses the 2026-06-23 gap-day print of $38.24; a Panorama primary that misses, a 50 µg arm that fails to separate, or September passing with no topline and still no NDA submission date would confirm the break. --- ### DIOD — Diodes Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DIOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The AI-server/auto power-content re-rate that carried DIOD to a ~$126 all-time high (June 18) has round-tripped: a double-top, an analyst downgrade, more insider selling and a sector-wide semi selloff pushed it to ~$96 by July 10, through the $100 breakout base. Fundamentals intact (raised Q2 guide $435M), but the momentum leg is broken; next read is the ~Aug 6 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $91 (the July range low) confirms the full round-trip of the AI-server re-rate and opens the $75–80 pre-breakout gap. Secondary: the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print landing under the $435M revenue guide, or in-line paired with a soft Q3 guide-down. --- ### DJT — Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DJT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-11 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-28 Themes: Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure, Crypto exchanges & financials, AI enterprise software Thesis: Fusion pivot is the leg: the 2025-12-18 all-stock TAE Technologies merger (>$6B, ~50/50 fully diluted) is what's actually being bought, while the crypto-treasury leg was terminated 2026-08-07. The S-4 was still unfiled as of 2026-08-05, and the first earnings call in company history on 2026-08-10 is the binary. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 gives back the July–August recovery leg (early-July trade referenced at $8.875 on 2026-07-06); secondary, the 2026-08-10 print passing with no dated TAE S-4 timeline and no disclosed Truth API revenue line. --- ### DNTH — Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNTH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-05-04 Thesis: The August re-rate has rolled over on no news: the last Dianthus disclosure is the 2026-08-04 Q2 print, and the 2026-08-28 close of $105.84 sits 8.7% under the $115.96 high with RSI(14) at 41.9 versus 56.6 a week earlier. Nothing company-dated falls before the ~November Q3 print; the next binary, MoMeNtum MMN top-line, is guided to December 2026, leaving a maturing narrative with a ten-week empty calendar in front of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 fails the July breakout shelf (2026-07-09 close $100.03) and returns price to the pre-breakout base; secondary conditions: a Q3 update repeating 'timing guidance expected' without dating CAPTIVATE Part B top-line, or a 424B5 take-down while price holds above the $81.00 March 2026 offering price. --- ### DNUT — Krispy Kreme, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNUT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-13 Thesis: The asset-light conversion is intact — net leverage 5.4x at Q2 versus 7.5x a year earlier — but the August promotional bid faded before its own catalyst ended, closing $3.38 on 2026-09-04 against $3.59 on 2026-08-21 with the Pokémon collection still on shelves through 2026-09-13. A 2026-08-27 ruling let McDonald's-rollout fraud claims proceed, and nothing company-dated lands before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.25 returns price inside the pre-2026-08-06 range and retires the entire post-print gain; secondarily, 2026-09-13 passing with no follow-on promotion or refranchising headline, or any cut to the $140–150M FY Adjusted EBITDA guide or the sub-5.50x year-end leverage target. --- ### DOCN — DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, AI chips & memory Thesis: The $113 weekly-close condition broke: the week ending 2026-08-28 closed at $111.21, under the 200-day reported at $113.47 and the $117.54 July placement price. Q2 (2026-08-04) still accelerated — revenue +29% YoY, AI ARR $234M +212%, RPO $894M — but three references fell in three weeks, insiders sold at $124–$132 in August, and no confirmed company event exists before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $110 removes the two-touch late-August shelf ($111.54 on 2026-08-24, $111.21 on 2026-08-28), with the lost 200-day at $113.47 now overhead; secondarily, a new 424B5 or convertible filed before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, or a Q3 guide implying sub-30% Q4 2026 growth. --- ### DOCU — DocuSign, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Legacy e-signature base re-wrapped as AI agreement management: IAM at 12.6% of ARR (2026-04-30) against a ~18% fiscal-year-end target, while total growth is guided to ~8%. The 2026-09-03 Q2 print is the binary, and it arrives with the 2026-08-28 close of $64.00 above the $57.52 average target of 21 analysts — a maturing narrative whose marginal bid is no longer coming from coverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 erases the summer advance and returns price under the $57.52 21-analyst average target; secondarily, a 2026-09-03 Q2 FY27 print that leaves IAM at or near 12.6% of ARR or trims FY27 ARR growth below the 8.25% floor. --- ### DRD — DRDGOLD Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The RSI(14) 91.0 spike that followed the 2026-08-19 FY2026 beat has drained to 64.4, with the ADR at $28.58 on 2026-09-04 against the $30.70 post-print close of 2026-08-21 — a give-back that tracked dollar gold ($4,633.90 quoted 2026-08-21, $4,443.53 on 2026-09-04) rather than any company news. Only the 2026-09-09 ex-dividend sits between here and the late-October Q1 FY2027 update, leaving a maturing story with no company-dated resolution inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $27.50 surrenders the entire advance built on the 2026-08-19 FY2026 print; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 cum-dividend date and the 2026-09-14 payment passing without a close back above $30.70 leaves no company-dated catalyst until the late-October Q1 FY2027 operating update. --- ### DUOT — Duos Technologies Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DUOT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, GPU cloud & neoclouds Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: The pivot is now structural: the rail subsidiary was sold 2026-08-05 (related party — interim CFO owns 50% of the buyer), leaving an edge-colocation operator carrying a 2026-07-16 five-year 10 MW hyperscaler contract worth >$111M. The tape has not confirmed it — the 2026-08-07 close of $9.24 sits under the June-17 $9.50 secondary price into a binary ~2026-08-13 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 — a decisive loss of the $9.50 June-17 registered-direct price with no reclaim — and, as a secondary condition, a ~2026-08-13 Q2 print that drops the "billing by end of August" Columbus language or cuts the >$50M FY2026 revenue target. --- ### DXCM — DexCom, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXCM/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-22 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: CGM leader's recovery has aged from catalyst-pop to an analyst-revision grind — Mizuho $90 (7/15), Truist $87 (7/16) into a ~7% two-day pop to $76.65 — but price is high-$70s still under the 200-EMA and the confirmed July 30 Q2 print is the binary; buying here chases extension into earnings risk. Kill line: a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the recovery-base shelf and round number; secondarily, a Q2 miss or guide-down on the July 30 print, an Abbott Libre price/share headline, or the Medtech & diagnostics theme flipping to saturated would confirm the break. --- ### DXYZ — Destiny Tech100 Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DXYZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Space economy Thesis: June-30 NAV printed 2026-08-28 at $34.30 vs $24.56 at Q1, and the 2026-08-28 close of $34.74 sits on top of it — the scarcity premium is gone. What remains is a levered call on Anthropic's Sept/Oct listing with a $1B Jefferies ATM economic again at these levels; the print drew a 6.62% extended-hours decline, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $29.50 gives back the August leg under the 2026-08-11 shelf near $29.65 and returns price toward the $22.50–$25.89 July range; secondarily, a share count disclosed above 30.47M confirming the $1B Jefferies ATM restarted, or an Anthropic pricing announcement that passes without the fund's premium re-expanding. --- ### EFOR — Everforth, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EFOR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Legacy IT-services base re-rating on an AI-delivery pivot, now in its quiet stretch: the post-print overbought condition fully unwound — RSI(14) 94.5 on 2026-08-07 to 46.7 at the 2026-08-28 close of $31.95 — while price held a ~2.3% band. No company release since the 2026-08-11 $30M DHA award and nothing dated before the ~late-October Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with the $27.50 consensus target 13.93% below the last close. Kill line: A weekly close below $28.50 hands back the 2026-07-30 print-day advance and puts the $27.50 consensus anchor in play; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-21, est.) with revenue under the $994.0M guide floor or Commercial TTM book-to-bill below 1.0 to 1. --- ### ELVN — Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Funded, FDA-aligned pre-pivotal CML story whose sell-side re-rating leg is spent: ten houses now publish $64–$82 targets, yet the 2026-08-28 close of $57.86 is 5.4% under the $61.15 high with RSI(14) down to 42.4 from 76.4 on 08-07. No company release since 2026-08-05 and no ENABLE-2 record on ClinicalTrials.gov as of 2026-08-30 leave a saturated narrative with nothing dated inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 puts the shares under every close since the 2026-08-05 Q2 print and marks the August re-rate as given back; secondary, the guided Q3 window closing on 2026-09-30 with no disclosed End-of-Phase 2 outcome and no ENABLE-2 record posted on ClinicalTrials.gov. --- ### ELVR — Elevra Lithium Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ELVR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The August leg failed at the print: the ADR closed $59.09 on 2026-08-28 versus $67.76 on 2026-08-21, even as the FY26 report guided FY27 production to 198,000–210,000 dmt against FY26's 197,967 dmt and GFEX carbonate settled CNY 158,700/t on 2026-08-21. What remains is a divergence — a six-month-high commodity against an equity 42.3% below its 52-week high — inside a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~late-October quarterly. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 takes out the entire August band and marks the 2026-08-28 FY26 report as distribution; secondary breaks are a Q1 FY27 report (~2026-10-28) with sales again below production and realized price at or under US$921/dmt, or a GFEX most-active close back under CNY 136,800/t. --- ### ENOV — Enovis Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Post-Colfax orthopedic pure-play turnaround: LimaCorporate integration plus FCF-conversion recovery (43% in 2024 toward a 70–80% target) is the self-help story, but price has rolled over from $34 toward $27 while three brokers cut targets. Not an accelerating narrative — the 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary that decides derating vs. re-rate. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 breaks the multi-month base and opens a retest of the $19.14 52-week low; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts FY organic guidance below 4% removes the self-help margin/FCF thesis. --- ### ENPH — Enphase Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENPH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: IQ SST AI-data-center pivot (announced 2026-04-28) that drove a spring squeeze has stalled — stock de-rated ~16% in a month to ~$45 (2026-07-09), sell-side uniformly neutral with PTs on top of price (Susquehanna $45, 2026-07-10), and SST volume revenue confirmed for 2028, too far to carry the tape. Management publicly arguing it's "valued wrong" is a late-narrative tell. 2026-07-28 Q2 print is the next binary; not a fresh accelerating entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 loses the post-announcement consolidation shelf and confirms the spring re-rate unwinding toward the pre-April $30s base; a 2026-07-28 Q2 print with revenue under the ~$280M guide low once the ~$85M safe-harbor pull-forward is stripped seals the de-rate. --- ### ENVA — Enova International, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ENVA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-04 Thesis: Credit normalisation plus 20%+ origination growth is intact, but the re-rating has rolled over: $232.72 on 2026-08-28 is 12.3% under the $265.45 high with RSI 35.3, and the late-August slide was sector-wide (OneMain -4.9%, Credit Acceptance -3.9% in the same session), not company-specific. Analyst targets have not moved since 2026-07-28 and nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-22 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative to trade on macro data. Kill line: A weekly close below $223 confirms the pierce of the mid-July pre-print zone of $225.64–$235.43 and completes the round trip of the post-Q2 gap; a Q3 net charge-off ratio above 7.6% or a net revenue margin at or under the guided 55% floor would compound the break. --- ### EPAM — EPAM SYSTEMS, INC. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EPAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Compounder narrative broken on 2026-08-06: FY26 organic constant-currency growth cut to 2.0%–3.0%, Q3 guided to ~1.7% YoY. Price has stalled rather than extended lower ($99.90 close 2026-08-11 vs $97.43 on 2026-08-07), but the AI-native replacement ($160M in Q2, >11% of revenue) gets no dated proof until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $92 confirms the post-guidance-cut de-rating leg resumed and puts the $73.06 52-week low back in play; secondarily, a Q3 report around 2026-11-05 guiding Q4 organic constant-currency growth below zero would end the stabilisation case. --- ### EQNR — Equinor ASA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EQNR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-24 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Cybersecurity, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $37 loses the breakout shelf and returns price to the sell-side target range; a parallel roll-over in European TTF gas, or the buyback tranche completing without a new high, would confirm the momentum leg is done. --- ### ERAS — Erasca, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: FDA Fast Track for ERAS-0015 in metastatic pancreatic (2026-08-24) landed on 16.4x average volume for a -0.17% close; J.P. Morgan then marked to a street-high $33 on 2026-08-27 while the 2026-08-28 close was $18.03 against a $23.5 consensus. Coverage is re-rating, the bid is not, and no company-dated catalyst falls before the undated H2 2026 ERAS-4001 readout — a saturated narrative with the $17.50 July placement price directly underneath. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 (loses the 2026-06-26 recovery shelf and puts the entire 31,428,572-share July placement at $17.50 overhead); secondarily, 2026-12-31 arriving with the guided H2 2026 ERAS-4001 BOREALIS-1 readout undelivered and no new dated window. --- ### ERO — Ero Copper Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ERO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: August's squeeze re-rating has been handed back: the 2026-09-04 close of $34.90 sits 13.6% under the $40.40 high, with three rating cuts in four sessions (BTG Pactual and Bradesco BBI 09-01, Freedom Broker 09-04, the last while raising its target to $43.20). The 2026-09-14 Capital Markets Day is the first company-dated event since the 08-05 Q2 beat and pulls the next test forward from November. Kill line: A weekly close below $33.80 retires the entire August breakout leg that ran from the 2026-08-14 close to the $40.40 high; secondary, the 2026-09-14 Capital Markets Day passing with no multi-year outlook and no upward estimate revision, leaving no company-dated catalyst until the ~November Q3 print. --- ### EVH — Evolent Health, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: Managed care & health services, Oncology & immunology Thesis: The late-June retail bounce has fully unwound — EVH traded ~$5.76 on 2026-07-07, back under the $6.59–6.86 consensus target band and well under Truist's flat $7. Nothing carries the name now except the confirmed 2026-08-06 Q2 print, which is a binary on whether oncology medical-cost trend has stabilized. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 loses the June bounce base and confirms the retail leg is fully retraced; secondary break is the 2026-08-06 Q2 print landing without a credible medical-cost-trend stabilization datapoint, which removes the last dated reason to own it. --- ### EXFY — Expensify, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXFY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: AI enterprise software, Fintech & consumer credit, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy expense-SaaS pivot re-rated on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print: revenue $33.9M beat $33.688M, paid-member decline halved to -2% YoY, FY26 FCF guide doubled to $12M-$14M, ~7% of shares retired, and New Expensify ARR from net-new customers topped $10M (+250% YoY). Price is at the 52-week high with RSI 87.6 and no dated catalyst until the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.35 gives back the reclaimed prior 52-week-high shelf and marks the post-print advance as an unheld gap; a Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) with revenue again under $33.9M and paid members re-accelerating lower would confirm AI attach is not offsetting legacy churn. --- ### EXLS — ExlService Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services Thesis: Post-refinancing re-rating has stalled: the 2026-08-21 close of $37.53 was never exceeded, price sat at $36.63 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) easing 71.1 to 65.1, and the 2026-09-02 exit of insurance/healthcare head Vivek Jetley to Hexaware (effective 2026-10-26) opens a leadership question one day before the estimated 2026-10-27 Q3 print, with nothing company-dated in between. Kill line: A daily close below $34 breaks the August shelf ($34.89 on 2026-08-07, $34.90 on 2026-08-11) and reopens the untested 2026-07-29 gap toward $30.53; secondarily, 2026-10-26 passing with no named successor for the insurance/healthcare/life-sciences seat, or a Q3 print guiding organic constant-currency growth below 13%. --- ### EXTR — Extreme Networks, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EXTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-16 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Networking & optical, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Legacy campus-networking name re-rating ~+140% off Feb lows on the Platform ONE / Agent ONE AI-NetOps story plus SaaS ARR +29% YoY; theme still accelerating but spot ($33.71, 07-10) has run through consensus PT $29.06 into the June bull band ($33–39), with a binary Q4/FY26 print now inside the window on Aug 5 — fresh-entry edge sits on a 20-EMA pullback or post-print continuation, not a chase at the high. Kill line: A daily close below $30 negates the early-July breakout leg (loses the $30 shelf); a weekly close below $27 loses the June base and rising 20-week EMA. Fundamentally, a Q4 (Aug 5) revenue miss under the $330M guide floor, SaaS ARR growth below ~20% YoY, or a soft FY27 outlook breaks the re-rate. --- ### FAC — Factorial Energy Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-30 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Freight & logistics, Defense & aerospace, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name has fully unwound its debut mania — down ~78% from the $25.33 ATH to ~$5.67, breaking clean through the former $9.26 floor into a fresh 52-week low at $4.24. Cantor's $18 target now sits ~217% above the tape, a dislocation not an opportunity. Broken de-SPAC structure bleeding toward its ~August 13 first earnings print; no long until a higher low bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.24 breaks the fresh 52-week low and confirms the de-SPAC bleed extends into the $3s; no long exists until a higher-low base reclaims the $9.26 former-floor shelf on rising volume, or the ~August 13 first print delivers a genuine revenue/commercialization surprise. --- ### FBIN — Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FBIN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Activist-plus-new-CEO turnaround has stopped accelerating and started digesting: after the +30% run off Garden's $40.6 buy, price has chopped $50–54 for three weeks while sell-side targets climbed past spot (Goldman $61 on 7/10, Barclays $56 on 7/14). The 2026-08-04 Q2 print is the binary that decides whether the base resolves up. Kill line: A weekly close below $49 breaks the July consolidation shelf and returns price to the pre-CEO-announcement $44–46 base; a 2026-08-04 Q2 print with sales still down YoY and no margin inflection or Singh strategic framework would confirm the re-rating ran ahead of the numbers. --- ### FCEL — FuelCell Energy, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FCEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Solar & clean energy Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Street targets re-rated up to the price rather than the reverse: average PT $22.83 across 8 analysts vs the 2026-08-07 close of $20.43, after B. Riley $13→$32 (6/29) and UBS $22→$27 (7/14). The AI-power bid still works (7/30 Microsoft capex pop) but was sold the next session; the ~2026-09-08 Q3 print, consensus -$0.50 on $41.31M against three straight revenue misses, is the next dated test. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 forfeits the post-offering shelf that has held since the 2026-07-07 pricing of 10.71M shares at $21.00; secondary breaks are another equity raise within a quarter of that deal, or the ~2026-09-08 Q3 print missing the $41.31M consensus with no backlog conversion. --- ### FIG — Figma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-03 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Design incumbent re-rated as an AI winner (BofA Buy, $30 PT, 7/7) rather than an AI casualty, yet the stock churns below its 100/200-day moving averages with heavy short interest into its first public earnings print on 8/5 — that print, not the tape, resolves the squeeze-versus-fade question. Kill line: A daily close below $21.00 breaks the post-IPO support shelf and confirms the failed 100/200-day moving-average retest; a soft 8/5 print with net dollar retention decelerating out of the ~130% area is the secondary, fundamental invalidation. --- ### FIVN — Five9, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FIVN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: Legacy-CCaaS AI pivot staged a sharp V-recovery: +29% off the $19.70 June swing low to $25.42, reclaiming the broken $22 shelf on a 2026-06-23 next-gen Voice AI Agents launch and an AI-first leadership overhaul. Now pressing the $26.26 June high into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print that resolves the seat-cannibalization-vs-monetization question. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 forfeits the reclaimed post-Q1 recovery shelf and reopens the June-low retest toward the $19.70 swing low; secondarily, a Q2 print (2026-07-30) showing AI ARR YoY decelerating below 50% with core seat revenue flat-to-negative confirms self-disruption is outrunning monetization. --- ### FN — Fabrinet URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Optical cluster re-accelerated in July (AAOI +390% YTD, LITE +138%, COHR +107%) while Fabrinet sits ~$478, +0.7% YTD and ~36% under its $748.89 high. Revenue compounds at +30% but the tape has decoupled from its own theme — a relative-strength failure into the binary 2026-08-24 fiscal-Q4 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $450 confirms the July oversold bounce failed and the de-rate is structural; secondarily, the 2026-08-24 fiscal-Q4 print landing under the $1.25B guide floor with datacom down a second straight sequential quarter, which would break the supply-unlock thesis outright. --- ### FOSL — Fossil Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOSL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: The 2026-08-12 beat-and-raise has been fully given back: the 2026-08-28 close of $5.35 sits beneath the $5.38 pre-print close, and the $6.09 52-week high still predates the news. The margin turnaround is proven and absorbed — two analysts lifted the average target to $7.50 on 2026-08-16 while widening the FY2026 loss estimate to $0.56 — and no company-dated catalyst lands before the ~2026-11-11 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.00 breaks the round-number shelf under the post-print range and returns price to the pre-Q2 zone; secondarily, the ~2026-11-11 Q3 report retracting any leg of the raised FY2026 guide (3%-5% sales decline, 4%-6% adjusted operating margin, positive free cash flow) or deferring the Q4 return-to-growth framing. --- ### FOUR — Shift4 Payments, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FOUR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Payments roll-up at ~$50, a hair above its $46.26 52-week low set on a 2026 guide-down. The Global Blue tax-free-shopping integration ("Shift4 One," launched 2026-07-14) is the transformation leg, but the 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — proof of volume re-acceleration or a second disappointment. Rolled-over structure, so a knife-catch, not a momentum long, until it reclaims level. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 takes out the $46.26 52-week low and confirms trend continuation toward the $40 low target; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that guides volume or gross-revenue lower again compounds the value-trap read. --- ### FPS — Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FPS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-15 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Second secondary in five weeks — ~43.6M shares at $49 on July 2, now including company primary dilution — confirms the recurring-supply pattern and dragged the stock from its $65.56 June-4 ATH back to the offering line. The industrial-power-for-AI theme is still accelerating, but dilution not narrative sets the near-term tape; needs to clear the paper and base above $49 before a new leg is trustworthy. Kill line: A weekly close below $49 says the July-2 offering price is not holding as a floor the way $47 did in June, leaving the stock in dilution-driven dead money and exposing the $47 May level; a third capital raise, or an August FY26 guide cut below the $1.35B floor, would confirm the structural break. --- ### FRD — Friedman Industries Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: Tariff-driven HRC steel prices at multi-year highs powered record FY2026 (EPS $2.76, sales +46%); FRD hit an all-time-high close $37.42 on 2026-06-18 and was flagged overbought the same day. The narrative is maturing and priced near the highs — HRC futures already rolling from their 2026-06-26 peak — with an early-August Q1 print as the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the pre-June-breakout shelf and ends the tariff-cycle momentum leg; a secondary break is CME HRC futures losing $1,050/ton or a Nucor spot-price cut ahead of the ~2026-08-06 Q1 print. --- ### FSLY — Fastly, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FSLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cybersecurity Thesis: The post-Q2 re-rating leg has round-tripped: $27.69 intraday on 2026-08-10, an 8.1% drop on 2026-08-24 to $22.94, and a 2026-08-28 close of $23.04 sitting eight cents above the pre-spike 2026-08-07 close of $22.96. Insider selling continued on the way down (CFO, 2026-08-21, weighted average $23.64–$24.95), and no company-dated catalyst lands before the 2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving a saturated narrative resting on a single shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.50 breaks the 2026-08-07 shelf of $22.96 and unwinds the entire post-print re-rating leg; secondary break is a cut to the FY2026 $732–746M revenue guide at the 2026-11-04 Q3 print, or an issuance off the standing August 2026 universal shelf. --- ### FTRE — Fortrea Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FTRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-09-02 all-cash ~$45M purchase of Worldwide's early-phase unit was the first company-dated news since the 2026-07-29 Q2 print, and the tape handed it back: $18.81 on 2026-08-28 to $17.70 on 2026-09-04, with the July $17.73–$18.49 shelf now overhead. No target action located since TD Cowen's $23 on 2026-08-04 and no company event before the ~early-November Q3 print leaves a maturing margin-repair story without flow behind it. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.40 forfeits the 2026-08-14 closing low of $17.41 and the July $17.73–$18.49 shelf; secondary breaks: trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill slipping under 1.0x from 1.12x, or the $205M FY26 adjusted-EBITDA floor being cut at the ~early-November Q3 print. --- ### FWRD — Forward Air Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/FWRD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations Thesis: Busted-merger workout losing its bid: the +48% June bounce to $14.87 (on a speculative Amazon-bolt-on thesis) has faded ~13% to ~$13, whole-company sale is now reported "unlikely," and the 2026-07-10 chairman exit forfeited strategic-review-tied equity. Only live catalyst is the Omni/Intermodal asset-sale 8-K flow; a break of the June base reopens the ~$10 low. Kill line: A daily close below $12 forfeits the June recovery base and reopens the ~$10 low; confirmed if the Omni divestitures slip past the ~60–90 day guide into September with no closing 8-K while the whole-company-sale story stays a report rather than a disclosed process. --- ### G — Genpact Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/G/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: AI enterprise software, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Agentic-operations pivot keeps compounding in the segment data — ATS +24.1% to $363M, FY guide lifted to at least 25% on 2026-08-06 — while the 73% legacy book grew 1.9% and caps consolidated growth near 7%. The 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 empties the near calendar: no company-specific repricing event until the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.), with the last cited close $34.29, 28.5% under the 52-week high. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 breaks the shelf built around the 2026-08-06 Q2 release and gives back the advance off the 2026-06-18 low of $28.77; confirmed fundamentally if Core Business Services prints an outright YoY decline at the Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.) with ATS growth under 20%. --- ### GCO — Genesco Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: The operating turnaround is real but priced, and its one asymmetric leg — the activist proxy fight — lost its teeth: ISS (2026-07-07) backed all nine board directors and urged holders to withhold from the two Radoff/Jumana nominees, so the 2026-07-21 vote is telegraphed to clear with no unlock. Stock round-tripped ~$36→~$33 back to pre-print support; no operating catalyst until back-to-school Q3 (late Aug). A maturing special situation, not a momentum setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $31 loses the low-$30s pre-print shelf and reopens the earnings gap toward the mid-$20s 52-week base; secondary: the 2026-07-21 vote clears with the nine-member board intact (the ISS-backed base case), removing the last dated catalyst, or Q2 FY27 (late Aug) Journeys comps decelerate below +3%. --- ### GDRX — GoodRx Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GDRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy-marketplace pivot: Pharma Direct +76% YoY and subscriptions +39% now carry the story while prescription transactions fall 26%, but the 2026-08-05 guidance raise to $790–805M has a bid — shares closed $3.48 on 2026-09-04, 30.8% under the $5.03 52-week high with RSI 36.7 and no company-dated catalyst before the estimated 2026-11-10 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 (surrenders the post-2026-08-05 guidance-raise shelf and puts price under the $3.50 median of targets compiled 2026-08-24), or the ~2026-11-10 Q3 print landing with Pharma Direct below the guided 70%+ full-year pace or FY26 revenue guidance cut back toward $765–785M. --- ### GENI — Genius Sports Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GENI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-09 Themes: Prediction markets & betting, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Sports-data toll-booth under the prediction-market boom, but the boom arrived and the toll didn't: Kalshi/Polymarket cleared $50B+ of World Cup volume (Coindesk, 2026-07-14) while GENI slid $6.43 → $6.30 and printed $5.98 intraday July 17. Theme accelerating, stock diverging. Aug 5–11 Q2 print is the first place the data revenue must appear in dollars. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.70 breaks the June post-Polymarket base low and confirms the toll-booth thesis is not being paid; secondary break if the Aug 5–11 Q2 print again quantifies no prediction-market data revenue or walks the FY26 $270–280M adj-EBITDA guide. --- ### GFI — Gold Fields Ltd ADR URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GFI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Margin-to-cash story intact from H1 (2026-08-25: $2.225bn adjusted FCF, dividend +132%, realised $4,678/oz), but the macro leg inverted on 2026-09-04 when 162k August payrolls against ~53k expected pushed September hike odds to roughly 65% and gold to $4,420/oz — below the H1 realised price. The 2026-09-16 FOMC is the binary, and $43–44 is the shelf a maturing narrative now rests on. Kill line: A weekly close below $43 loses the reclaimed 200-day moving average, at $43.57 on 2026-08-28, and the post-results advance; gold sustaining under ~$4,200/oz, or a 2026-09-16 hike the equity cannot absorb, would confirm the margin leg is closing. --- ### GFS — GlobalFoundries Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GFS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Networking & optical, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: Photonics/CHIPS delivery kept accelerating — comms/data-center revenue +62% YoY in Q2 (2026-08-05), $300M Commerce LoI 2026-07-29 — while the multiple collapsed 39.2% from the $89.83 52wk high to $54.58 on 2026-08-14. What's on offer is a de-rate with no scheduled catalyst until the ~November print and a controlling holder unrestricted since ~2026-07-26. No base confirmed. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 confirms the mid-$50s offered no shelf and puts price under the entire recent target cluster including UBS's $55 (2026-08-06); a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) cutting full-year comms/data-center growth beneath the guided 50–60% band would seal it. --- ### GGAL — Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GGAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Argentina disinflation is still working — June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on Jul 14, an improvement on May's 2.1% — but the ADR faded the good print, dropping ~7% on the week to ~$50 and losing both the $51.07 50-day and the $52.86 200-day. Macro leg intact, price expression broken; the next gradeable test is the ~Aug 13 July CPI. Kill line: A weekly close below $48 loses the shelf that has held every pullback since the spring recovery and leaves no support until the low-$40s. Secondary breaks: monthly INDEC CPI re-accelerating above 3.0% for two consecutive prints, or a forced peso devaluation / abandonment of the crawling band, either of which gaps the USD ADR regardless of ARS earnings. --- ### GLUE — Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GLUE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: ZEUS (ziltivekimab, MACE HR 0.99) failed on 2026-07-31 and took GLUE −27.16% to $16.52, its worst session on record, because the hsCRP-to-outcomes link under MRT-8102's ASCVD story is exactly what ZEUS could not demonstrate. Platform, Novartis economics and $666.2M of Q1 cash survive; the momentum structure does not. The ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the first management response. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 undercuts the 2026-07-31 gap-down session (close $16.52, pre-market low ~$15.90) and prices the ASCVD franchise toward zero; a Q2 call that defers the GFORCE-2 ASCVD start or pushes the expanded GFORCE-1 readout out of 2026 compounds the break. --- ### GOLF — Acushnet Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOLF/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-05 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cybersecurity Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Premium-golf consumable franchise (Titleist Pro V1) that ran to a $119.65 all-time high on a defensive-quality rotation, then bled ~11% of the mania premium back to the ~$104–105 June breakout shelf ($104.66 on 2026-07-24). The 2026-08-06 Q2 print — JPM models revenue +11.8% vs 10.3% consensus — is the binary that decides whether the shelf holds. Maturing and at support, not a fresh fat pitch. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 forfeits the June breakout shelf and the rising 20-week line and drops the tape below the ~$100.40 consensus target; secondary breaks are the 2026-08-06 Q2 print trimming the reaffirmed $2,625–2,675M / $415–435M FY guide, or the consumer-brands rotation flipping to saturated. --- ### GRND — Grindr Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GRND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 beat-and-raise (2026-08-06: revenue $138.1M +33%, FY guide ~$540M) has fully round-tripped — $15.25 on 2026-09-04, inside the July shelf and 15.0% under the $17.94 high. Two new dated items: the UK group action resolved 2026-09-02 for two £13M instalments, and a Goldman Sachs fireside on 2026-09-10 lands six days before the reported controlling-holder sale window opens 2026-09-16. Kill line: A weekly close below $14.50 forfeits the July shelf ($14.85–$15.69 closes) the pre-print advance launched from; secondarily, a Schedule 13D/A or Form 4 showing controlling-holder sales after the reported 2026-09-16 window opening, or September ending with no close above $17.94. --- ### GRPN — Groupon, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GRPN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Squeeze narrative failed rather than resolved: the reported short base fell to 12.68M shares (69.00% of float, 8.19 days to cover, 2026-09-05) from 13.73M while the stock slid from $19.59 to $18.87 — covering into weakness. The $18 shelf published in August is the last structure standing, and the 2026-09-10 Reg FD-designated investor Q&A is the only company-dated item before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 retraces the entire 2026-07-16 index-inclusion advance and takes out the last shelf beneath the 2026-09-04 close of $18.87; secondarily, the 2026-09-10 investor Q&A passing without a new operating datapoint while the reported short base falls further from 12.68M shares, which removes the covering fuel behind any large up-day. --- ### GSHD — Goosehead Insurance, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GSHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The post-print re-rating rolled over: the 2026-09-04 close of $65.21 gives back most of the August leg after director/10%-owner Serena Jones sold 29,750 Class A shares at $67.56–$70.15 on 2026-08-19/20, the Form 4 signed on the same session as the $72.52 closing high. No dated company event until the Q3 print (~2026-10-21 est.) and the 2026-11-13 Investor Day, leaving a saturated narrative testing the $64 shelf. Kill line: A weekly close below $64 retraces the entire post-print leg and leaves the 2026-07-17 pre-print close of $54.28 as the next reference; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-21 est.) that trims the 12–19% FY organic band or shows core revenue growth below the +10% of Q2 2026 as contingent commissions normalise. --- ### GSM — Ferroglobe PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GSM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-29 Thesis: US trade-remedy leg: the 2026-08-03 USITC affirmative vote forces AD/CVD orders on Australian and Norwegian silicon metal, on top of Angola/Laos orders live since 2026-03-17. Q2 (2026-08-04) delivered the sequential recovery — $13.1M adj EBITDA, $20.4M FCF, net debt $37.7M — but the silicon metal segment still lost $2.7M and no guidance was given. RSI 80.3 with both catalysts printed. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 ends the trade-remedy re-rating leg; secondarily, a Q3 2026 print (~November) that again shows silicon metal segment adjusted EBITDA below zero after −$2.7M in Q2, with forward guidance still withheld. --- ### GTM — ZoomInfo Technologies Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-09 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Legacy B2B data business trying to re-price as the data layer under AI go-to-market agents. The 2026-08-05 post-print gap is intact but unextended — $3.97 on 2026-08-21, RSI(14) cooled 76.9→58.9 — and the 2026-08-11 Microsoft Copilot MCP connector is the first distribution proof-point with no revenue metric attached. Next dated venues: Deutsche Bank tech conference ~08-27, Piper Sandler 09-15. Kill line: A daily close below $3.66 fully retraces the 2026-08-05 post-print gap to the pre-earnings shelf; secondary, the ~2026-08-27 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances both passing with no dated GTM.AI, GTM Studio or consumption-pricing revenue metric. --- ### GTN — Gray Media, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Thesis: August's double catalyst — the FCC's 2-1 repeal of the 39% ownership cap (2026-08-06) and the Q2 beat-and-raise (2026-08-07) — keeps decaying: the 2026-08-28 close of $4.83 sits 20.5% under the $6.07 52-week high with RSI(14) at 45.6 versus 62.1 a week earlier. The only new company action is debt-side — a $250M repurchase authorization disclosed 2026-08-07 — and nothing dated refreshes the story before the ~2026-11-06 (est.) Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.50 gives back the entire August FCC-repeal and beat-and-raise repricing (the $5.00 handle already failed on the 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28 weekly closes at $4.94 and $4.83); secondarily, the $6.07 52-week high standing unbroken into the ~2026-11-06 (est.) Q3 print with Q4 political guided under the $165–185M Q3 range. --- ### GTX — Garrett Motion Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Turbo cash-cow re-rated (~8–9x → ~18x) on a datacenter/industrial oil-free cooling narrative; the parabolic Feb→June leg (~$20→$36) is spent, shares faded ~11% to the 50-day near $32.30, and the ~late-July Q2 print is the first chance to attach real cooling revenue. Fully-priced, maturing, a wait-for-the-print name. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 loses the May–June breakout shelf and the rising trend off the February base. Secondary: an FY26 sales guide cut below the $3.6B floor, or a Q2 print (~late July) with no datacenter/industrial-cooling revenue line, breaks the re-rate thesis. --- ### GWRE — Guidewire Software, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GWRE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, GPU cloud & neoclouds Thesis: The pre-print re-rating resolved on 2026-09-03: FY2026 ending ARR of $1,242M cleared the $1,229-1,237M guide, but the FY2027 ARR guide of $1,450-1,460M implies ~18% growth against 19% delivered, and the shares fell roughly 20% on 2026-09-04 to a $162.42 close, losing the $170-173 August shelf. Seven target revisions clustered $195-220 landed into that drop, leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst until the Q1 print in early December. Kill line: A weekly close below $155 says the 2026-09-04 print-reaction area near the $162.42 close was not support and opens the July base near $131.38; secondarily, the 10-K deadline of 2026-09-29 and Connections on 2026-10-29 passing with no change to the $1,450-1,460M FY2027 ARR range while price stays under $173. --- ### HELE — Helen of Troy Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-10-08 Thesis: Deleveraging stub coiling rather than breaking: HELE closed $28.40 on 2026-09-04, fractionally under a 50-day line that has risen to $28.43, still 6.0% below the 2026-08-14 closing high of $30.22, while short interest built to 13.14% of float. No broker has moved a target since 2026-07-09 and nothing company-dated lands before the 2026-10-08 Q2 print, leaving a maturing story with an empty 30-day calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $27.50 loses both the $27.95 shelf that held the late-August fade and the rising 50-day at $28.43, returning price to the lower half of the $25.13–$29.65 post-print range; secondarily, net leverage flat or above 3.48x at the 2026-10-08 Q2 print, or a cut to the $85M–$100M FY2027 free-cash-flow guide. --- ### HELP — Cybin Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HELP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Cannabis reclassification, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Post-dilution CNS microcap re-firing with the psychedelic cohort (ATAI, CMPS all moving 2026-07-16) after a June social-velocity blowoff and a 10.3M-share secondary at $4.85. Both covering shops cut targets in July while holding Buy. No dated catalyst — APPROACH Phase 3 reads out years out. Wants a base above $4.85 before it's tradable. Kill line: A daily close below $4.85 — back through the 2026-06-24 secondary-offering price — puts the entire offering book underwater and confirms the social-velocity melt-up has fully unwound with no support structure beneath it. --- ### HIMX — Himax Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIMX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Analog semiconductors, Networking & optical, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: A guide-beating Q2 (2026-08-06) and a $43 Baird mark have still not bought a bid: $13.64 on 2026-08-28, 42.7% under the $23.79 high, RSI(14) 38.7, with the $13 May-gap shelf immediately below. No company-dated event falls inside 30 days — the WiseEye glasses brand is still unnamed and the Q3 print is expected ~2026-11-05, leaving a maturing narrative drifting on thin flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 fills the 2026-05-07 earnings gap and round-trips the AI-glasses leg into the pre-May range; secondarily, the "this fall" WiseEye smart-glasses launch reaching the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print with no named brand and no shipping product. --- ### HIVE — HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HIVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Bitcoin miners, GPU cloud & neoclouds, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: BTC-miner→AI-compute re-rating has its first blue-chip proof — BUZZ HPC's $220M Bell/Cohere sovereign-AI GPU deal (~$70M ARR) on top of $35M contracted ARR — but the stock stalled ~$3.79 below its early-June highs as BTC bled ~45-50% off October and a $300M ATM plus $115M of notes cap upside. Needs a price reclaim to confirm; no fresh momentum yet. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.20 fills the early-June Bell/Cohere breakout gap and confirms the AI re-rating failed to hold its base against a falling BTC tape; secondary: the next monthly BUZZ HPC update shows contracted ARR flat-to-down, or BTC loses $58K and drags the miner basket below breakeven. --- ### HMY — Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HMY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Industrial power & grid Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The August momentum leg has round-tripped: 2026-08-27 results paired a record 1,280c FY26 dividend (R8.15bn) with FY27 guidance of 1.30–1.40 Moz at R1.30–1.395m/kg, both softer than FY26's 1,429,551 oz at R1,191,698/kg. What is left is a cash-return leg priced off a conservative R1.85m/kg gold assumption, with the 2026-09-04 close of $20.27 sitting on the shelf the August breakout was measured from. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 completes the round trip of the August expansion leg; secondarily, spot gold losing and failing to reclaim $4,000/oz, or the 2026-10-07 ex-dividend date passing with the shares still below the 2026-08-21 close of $23.54. --- ### HOV — Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Class A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The housing-bill leg is spent — the Act auto-enacted 2026-07-11 and nothing dated has replaced it — yet HOV has re-rated to $137.78 (2026-08-07), 11.8% off the $156.16 high, on no company news. The confirmed 2026-08-20 Q3 print (quarter closed 07-31) is now the only resolution point, into 6.69% mortgage rates, a fifth Fed pause on 07-29 and a sole covering analyst at $74. Kill line: A weekly close below $122 breaks the 2026-07-09 trough close of $122.29 that the current recovery leg was built from; reinforced if the 2026-08-20 Q3 FY2026 print lands another loss with backlog still contracting year-over-year and no gross-margin recovery. --- ### HROW — Harrow, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HROW/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Show-me on an H2 ramp with nothing company-dated to resolve it before the ~November Q3 print: the reaffirmed $350–365M FY2026 guide needs the back half to roughly double H1's $114.9M against $292.4M loans payable net, and sell-side FY revenue consensus has settled at $350.71M — the floor of the range. The 09-09 and 09-15 webcast fireside chats are the only scheduled venues for a guidance update, leaving a maturing narrative with a thinning incremental bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 breaks the post-Q2 stabilisation shelf and leaves the mid-May reaction low near $34 as the next reference; secondary break is any cut to the $350–365M revenue or $80–100M adjusted EBITDA guide, or an equity raise disclosed to fund the $30M TYRVAYA closing payment. --- ### HTLD — Heartland Express, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HTLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The margin-recovery leg printed on 2026-07-30 (operating ratio 91.0% vs 105.9%) and drew no lasting bid: price slid from $12.84 on 2026-08-21 to $12.44 on 2026-09-04, RSI 43.9, at the bottom of the August $12–$13 band, while freight pricing held firm (dry-van tender rejections 13.54%, IEL 2026-08-24). No company-dated event before the ~late-October Q3 test leaves a maturing narrative with a thinning bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 ends the August $12–$13 band and puts price under Barclays' 2026-08-13 target. Secondary: the Q3 print (~2026-10-22, est.) showing an operating ratio back above 95% once the $25.0M of Q2 disposal gains normalise, or revenue below the $184.1M Q2 level. --- ### HURN — Huron Consulting Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HURN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: AI-disruption discount still unwinding, but the bid has stopped widening: the 2026-08-28 close of $159.84 is below the 2026-08-21 close of $161.64, no analyst has moved a target since 2026-07-29, and Huron has published nothing since the 2026-07-28 raise. No company-dated event falls before the unannounced Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative carried by multiple alone. Kill line: A weekly close below $150 gives back the August shelf built off the 2026-08-07 close of $152.05; secondarily, the September conference window passing with no Huron appearance announced, or FY2026 RBR guidance marked below the $1.850B floor at the Q3 print. --- ### IART — Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IART/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-20 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: Med-device turnaround re-rating is now fully banked into Hold-grade targets: BMO initiated Market Perform $19 (Jul 9) and Citi raised to Neutral $19 (Jul 8), both landing on the tape (~$18.76). The distressed-to-fair leg is done; only Argus's $25 sits above price, organic growth is +1.3%, and a binary Q2 print lands early August. Fresh entry pays fair value, not a setup. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 loses the June post-Argus breakout shelf (built above the ~$17.43 consensus and old $17.83 high). Independently invalidated by a renewed manufacturing/recall/compliance 8-K, or an FY guide cut / the IEEPA tariff benefit flagged non-recurring at the early-August Q2 print. --- ### ICHR — Ichor Holdings URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ICHR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Memory-capex WFE subsystem re-rating broke on the 2026-08-03 Q2 print: revenue $294.8M missed $300.2M consensus, the $78 June shelf failed, and the 2026-08-07 close was $68.32 against a $112.28 high. Q3 guidance still beats ($315–345M vs $314.5M), so the operating story survives while the price structure has not rebuilt. Applied Materials' 2026-08-13 print is the next read-through. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 takes out the 2026-06-05 higher-low at $62.91, the last structural floor under the June breakout leg; secondary break is Applied Materials guiding WFE/memory equipment demand lower at its 2026-08-13 fiscal Q3 print. --- ### IHRT — iHeartMedia, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IHRT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, AI enterprise software Thesis: M&A leg is dead — no SiriusXM headline since the 2026-05-29 NYT "stalled" report and the April spike fully round-tripped ($6.33 high → $3.86 on 2026-08-07, -39%). What is left is a binary: Q2 print 2026-08-10 after the close is the first hard read on the midterm political ramp behind the ~$800M FY EBITDA guide, on 6.9x net leverage. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.40 loses the post-spike floor and 200-day area, opening the $2.30–2.75 pre-spike zone; secondary: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA under the $140–160M guide on the 2026-08-10 print, or the FY ~$800M EBITDA / ~$200M FCF guide being cut on that call. --- ### IMRX — Immuneering Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IMRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Busted-catalyst pancreatic biotech: atebimetinib's 17.3-mo single-arm 1L OS is real, but the Phase 3 binary is mid-2028 and the tape keeps fading post-ASCO ($5.11→$4.32 in two weeks) even as targets climb to $18–$30. Cheap value-optionality (~$80M EV vs $198.6M cash) with no dated OS catalyst for ~2 years — a base-building watch, not fresh momentum. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.90 undercuts the post-ASCO base and confirms the market de-rating atebimetinib's single-arm OS toward the $2.90 52-week low; a competing MEK/MAPK Phase 3 miss or a dilutive raise into the Aug 12 print compounds the break. --- ### INDI — indie Semiconductor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INDI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-08 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Automotive ADAS-silicon design-win story keeps improving on paper ($7.4B backlog, $25M radar order, ams OSRAM sensor buy) while the tape stays broken below the ~$4.00 50-day MA; TD Cowen's 2026-07-13 lift to a $4.50 Hold is a thaw, not a trigger. No clean setup until Q2 earnings 2026-08-06 — value-trap zone. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 confirms the failed breakout is extending toward the $2.32 52-week low and keeps it a no-touch falling knife; the constructive case only re-arms on a reclaim of ~$4.00 then a weekly close above $4.81 on volume with auto-semi peers (MBLY/NXPI) confirming. --- ### INFQ — Infleqtion, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INFQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Funded-quantum leg keeps extending while the tape does not: B. Riley initiated Buy with a $23 target on 2026-09-04, the third published target above $20, yet the 2026-09-04 close of $12.85 sits within a penny of the 2026-08-14 close of $12.86 and 50.5% under the $25.95 high. Five conference dates between 09-09 and 09-25 carry a maturing story with no company-dated disclosure until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A daily close below $10.90 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance and the 2026-08-05/06 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-25 conference block passing with the shares still under $13.60, or the up-to-$100M CHIPS Letter of Intent ageing past year-end without a definitive award. --- ### INHD — Inno Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The residual balance-sheet case broke on its own published level: the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $4.53 is under the $4.75 flagged on 2026-08-29, and the CFO who signed the 2026-08-18 10-Q left the board and the finance seat effective 2026-08-25, replaced by a subsidiary accounting manager as interim. Nothing company-dated arrives before the FY2026 10-K, leaving a dead narrative, a live $60M ATM and 2,520,581 shares. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 gives up the last round number between the 2026-09-04 close of $4.53 and the $1.01 pre-spike zone, confirming the tape is pricing past the reported balance sheet; secondarily, a 424B5 takedown under the $60M ATM or an FY2026 10-K share count materially above 2,520,581 each ends the asset-value case. --- ### INNV — InnovAge Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INNV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The 2026-09-08 Q4/FY2026 print — company-confirmed on 2026-08-26, after the close — is the binary: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA against the raised $85–90M guide, and first FY2027 guidance into the rate headwind KeyBanc flagged alongside its 2026-08-21 $13 upgrade. The 2026-09-04 close of $10.75 sits 2.3% above the $10.50 shelf and 6.98% above the published $10 three-analyst average target. Kill line: A weekly close below $10.50 forfeits the July–August shelf reclaimed at the 2026-08-21 close of $10.96 and held into the 2026-09-04 close of $10.75. Secondary: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA under the $85M guide floor on 2026-09-08, or FY2027 adjusted-EBITDA guidance whose midpoint does not exceed FY2026. --- ### INOD — Innodata Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-09 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: AI training-data pure-play with a still-accelerating fundamental story (Q1 rev +54%, 40%+ FY26 guide reaffirmed 06-17) but a fully broken chart: ~-51% from the June $125.14 ATH to ~$61, with the CEO filing a fresh 200k-share sale on 07-16 into a binary Aug 6 Q2 print. Real narrative, distributing tape — a knife, not a base. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 loses the post-gap shelf and opens the May gap-fill air pocket toward the low-$40s (52-week low $34.23 in play); secondarily, an Aug 6 Q2 print showing the ~56% anchor customer cutting spend, or a FY26 guide cut, breaks the fundamental leg. --- ### IPX — IperionX Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: US critical-minerals sovereignty name whose funding overhang cleared the ugly way: a 2026-07-08 US$50M ADS raise priced at $21.98, ~22% below the ~$28 pre-deal level, resetting the stock to $22.94 near its $21.66 52-week low. Pre-revenue, below all moving averages, with an open securities probe — a downtrend that capitulated into its own discounted raise. The setup does not clear until it bases and reclaims the low-$30s on volume. Kill line: A weekly close below $21.66 loses the 52-week low and the July $21.98 raise floor, confirming the sovereignty bid has exited; secondarily, escalation of the open securities probe to a filed class action, or a second discounted equity raise. --- ### IQ — iQIYI, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IQ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Squeeze & momentum setups, Emerging markets Thesis: Long-form streaming growth is broken in the reported numbers (Q1 2026 revenue -13% YoY, operating income to a RMB228.4m loss), so what is left is the micro-drama/overseas pivot — newly branded as Undercurrent Theater in early August 2026 — which still carries no disclosed revenue line. The 2026-08-18 Q2 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.20 hands back the entire three-month advance and returns the ADS to its pre-bounce range; secondary, the 2026-08-18 Q2 print passing with no disclosed micro-drama or overseas revenue line and non-GAAP operating income still below zero. --- ### IRWD — Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IRWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Third straight fortnight of drift: $4.29 on 2026-08-21 to $4.26 on 2026-09-04, RSI 46.8, 21% under the $5.39 high, with the raised 2026-08-06 FY26 guide (revenue $460–485M, adjusted EBITDA above $310M) attracting no new bid. A deleveraging cash-flow story carrying a 17-month-old strategic review as unpriced optionality, and the 2026-09-10 Wells Fargo fireside chat is the only dated event before the November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.80 unwinds the July advance and returns price to the June low-$3s zone. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 fireside chat passing with the strategic review unaddressed, or a Q3 print tracking LINZESS below the raised $1.15–1.20B FY26 guide. --- ### JACK — Jack In The Box Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JACK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Consumer discretionary rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: June's move was a float mechanic — Russell Microcap inclusion (effective 2026-06-30) into a 40%-short float drove $8.92 to $18.13, and it is unwinding ($14.98 on 2026-07-17, -7.76%). SSS is genuinely inflecting (-6.7% → -3.8%), but price sits on the $15 median analyst target with no upgrade cycle left. The 2026-08-12 Q3 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 forfeits the pre-squeeze shelf and the late-June 200-day reclaim, confirming the June leg was pure index-reconstitution flow; a Q3 same-store-sales print on 2026-08-12 worse than the -3.8% Q2 base, or FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guided below $225M, is the fundamental confirm. --- ### JBLU — JetBlue Airways Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JBLU/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-20 Themes: Travel & leisure, Oil, energy & geopolitical, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B debt, 0.7 current ratio, ~$6.12 convert cap. July 28 Q2 print is now a distressed binary — the setup does not clear ahead of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.08 forfeits the reclaimed long-term moving average and confirms the fuel-reversion leg is dead; secondary breaks are Brent sustaining above $85, a Chapter 11 / restructuring announcement, or a Q2 RASM guide cut below +9% on the July 28 print. --- ### JELD — JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JELD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: JELD-WEN's post-2026-08-03 re-rating has stalled: the 2026-09-04 close of $2.30 is back below the 2026-08-28 close of $2.53, RSI(14) has cooled from 71.2 to 61.0, and no company disclosure has landed since the 2026-08-05 analyst updates. The equity remains a residual claim on a December 2027 refinancing with no announced date, leaving a maturing narrative whose next company-dated test is the Q3 print around 2026-11-09. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 erases the post-2026-08-03 guidance-raise advance and returns price to Barclays' 2026-08-05 equal-weight mark; secondarily, an 8-K addressing the December 2027 notes on terms that place secured or equity-linked paper ahead of the common. --- ### JOBY — Joby Aviation, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JOBY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-28 Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: eVTOL cert story still advancing (FAA TIA testing, 2026 Dubai target) but the trade rolled over: ~$8 testing support, down ~33% since June 1, recovery base gone, CFO sold ~half his stake June 8, consolidation coverage marks sentiment turning. Broken structure into the 52-week low — the setup does not clear until it bases; ~Aug 5 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.49 (the 52-week low) confirms capitulation and opens untested single-digit lows; secondarily, the Dubai passenger launch or FAA TIA pilot evaluations slipping into 2027 removes the near-term re-rate. --- ### JWEL — Jowell Global Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JWEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-11 Themes: Biofuels & low-carbon fuels, Semi foundry & equipment, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Low-float China e-commerce microcap that repriced +106% intraday on 2026-08-10 with no filing behind it; the leg being bought is float scarcity (2.38M shares out, $7.3M market cap) plus a 0.04x sales optic. Nothing on the calendar resolves it before semi-annual results expected ~2026-12. Kill line: A daily close below $2.60 removes the post-2026-08-10 shelf and opens a full retrace of the spike toward the pre-spike $1-handle; secondary, a 6-K disclosing an equity raise priced at or below the market, or the H1 2026 report (~2026-12, est.) landing with a net loss wider than the $1.3M H1 2025 figure. --- ### KALU — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KALU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths, Defense & aerospace Thesis: Section 232 aluminum supply-shock (50% duty through 2027) plus a Q1 earnings inflection already repriced KALU ~+175% YoY to a $195 high; the move is maturing toward saturated with price at/above every published target. The estimated ~2026-07-22 Q2 print now sits inside the next three trading days — an earnings-blackout binary with no setup behind it at range highs. Kill line: A weekly close below $170 breaks the post-Q1/June consolidation floor and the rising 50-day, ending the momentum leg; secondary: a Q2 (~2026-07-22) conversion-revenue guide cut below the prior +10–15% raise, or the US Midwest premium falling under ~$1,800/tonne. --- ### KC — Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-04 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: China AI-compute capacity story is intact on fundamentals — AI gross billing +90% YoY and past half of public-cloud revenue in Q1 (reported 2026-05-27) — but the price leg broke: -32.3% from the $18.21 high with RSI(14) back at 70.0. The 2026-08-19 Q2 print is the binary this rebound has to survive. Kill line: A daily close below $11.00 unwinds the July–August rebound that carried RSI(14) to 70.0 at the 2026-08-07 close of $12.33; secondary confirmation is a Q2 gross margin on 2026-08-19 below Q1's 12.8%. --- ### KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KEEL/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Bitcoin miners, Industrial power & grid Thesis: Former Bitfarms miner→AI/HPC-datacenter pivot has rolled over: June's push to ~$6.14 into Citizens' $10 initiation retraced to a ~$4.975 ref by 07-06, losing the $5.00 convert shelf and drifting toward the $4.00–4.20 base. Still zero signed HPC/AI leases; the 07-15 Sherbrooke 96 MW approval widens the pipeline but isn't the tenant lease, and the ~08-11 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 forfeits the $4.00–4.20 pre-pivot launch base and confirms a full retrace of the miner→AI re-rate; secondary breaks: the ~2026-08-11 Q2 print landing with still zero signed HPC/AI leases, or an at-market equity raise stacked on the $458M convert. --- ### KFRC — Kforce Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KFRC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Cyclical staffing recovery is fully printed — Q1 returned to YoY growth, Q2 guided +~4% — but price ran ~24% in three weeks to a fresh all-time high near $58.6, ~38% above the $42.33 consensus PT, into the confirmed 2026-07-27 Q2 print. A low-beta income name stretched past every analyst target into a binary; the extension, not the story, is now the risk. Nothing to chase pre-print. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 forfeits the early-July breakout shelf (the ~$50.90 pivot) and signals the recovery-momentum leg has rolled, opening the $46–47 June base and the $40–42 post-Q1 gap; secondary, a 2026-07-27 Q2 print under the $344M revenue guide low-end or margins missing the 5.0–5.4% band. --- ### KGS — Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KGS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Oil, energy & geopolitical Thesis: Legacy-pivot repricing has stalled into a four-week range: the 2026-09-04 close of $62.59 sits between the 2026-08-10 low of $59.72 and the 2026-08-14 close of $65.35, with no company press release since 2026-08-06 and no dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Coverage stays uniformly bullish at a $83.13 average target, but the two newest prints ($78 on 08-27, $72 on 09-03) came in at the low end of a maturing story. Kill line: A weekly close below $59 gives back the 2026-08-07 reversal leg and the 2026-08-10 low of $59.72; secondary: a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) with revenue-generating power capacity still near 363 MW and no 8-K disclosing a signed long-duration data-center contract, or a cut to the FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide of $830-860M. --- ### KLAC — KLA Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The $190 break held and no base replaced it: the 2026-09-04 close of $185.60 sits $1.61 above the 2026-08-21 weekly close, 38.4% under the $301.37 high, with RSI(14) at 31.4. UBS cut to $200 on 2026-09-01 while Bernstein reaffirmed $250 on 2026-09-02, leaving a saturated narrative with recurring retail-facing coverage, no widening bid, and no company datapoint until the ~2026-10-28 Q1 FY2027 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $175 takes the round trip beneath the pre-June-advance zone and beneath the low end of the published 29-analyst range, ending the residual re-rating case; secondarily, a September quarter at or under the $3.8B low end of the $4.0B ±$200M guide at the ~2026-10-28 print, or no weekly close back above $210 by then. --- ### KLC — KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KLC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-20 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services Thesis: Distressed post-IPO childcare name has retraced ~180% off its $1.75 spring low to $4.93 as growth shifts to B2B/employer care and before-after-school (Champions +17% YoY), while the core ECE business still shrinks (−3% enrollment). The ~13 Aug 2026 Q2 print is the binary that confirms the turnaround or reasserts the downtrend. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 forfeits the recovery shelf built off the spring lows and reasserts the post-IPO downtrend; a secondary break is a ~13 Aug 2026 Q2 print re-accelerating ECE enrollment declines past −3% YoY or lifting the center-closure count. --- ### KMTS — Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMTS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: WCD share-capture story intact on fundamentals — FY26 revenue $95.1M (+59%), fiscal Q4 gross margin 54.8% — but the bid has thinned: the close was $25.64 on 2026-08-28, 9.6% under the $28.35 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 13.5 against 67.8 on 2026-08-21 and no dated news in between. The 2026-09-14 Q1 FY27 print is the first test of the $137M FY27 guide (+44%, a deceleration). Kill line: A weekly close below $24 marks the post-guidance advance as failed, roughly 15% under the $28.35 52-week high. Secondary: the 2026-09-14 Q1 FY27 print comes and goes with the $137M guide reiterated rather than raised and ASSURE prescription growth well under the +63% YoY of fiscal Q4. --- ### KNX — Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KNX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: Beat-and-raise is filed (Q2 adj EPS $0.63; Q3 guided $0.71–$0.77) but the equity is flat since 2026-08-21 at $71.99 while the driver stalled rather than reaccelerated — all-mode tender rejections 13.57% on 2026-08-25 versus a July 4 peak above 17.5%. CEO Miller's 2026-07-22 call for momentum to "intensify starting in September" makes the weekly freight data the only running test before the ~2026-10-21 (est.) print, leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 breaks the late-July post-print shelf and turns the 2026 advance into a failed breakout on already-delivered numbers. Secondary: all-mode tender rejections printing back under 12% during September after the 13.57% reading of 2026-08-25, or Q3 adjusted EPS landing beneath the $0.71 guide floor at the ~2026-10-21 (est.) print. --- ### KOD — Kodiak Sciences Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Binary-catalyst re-run now inside its guided window: DAYBREAK's one-year wet-AMD topline is due before 2026-09-30, and the tape has gone the other way — $35.36 on 2026-09-04, RSI(14) 24.4, a fourth lower step from $42.64 on 2026-07-17, and the $36 weekly shelf gone before the event it framed. J.P. Morgan's $66.C. Wainwright's $58 sit above a price no bid is absorbing. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 extends the $42.64 → $41.35 → $38.33 → $35.36 step-down with no bid appearing inside the guided readout window; secondarily, a September that ends with no DAYBREAK topline and no re-guidance, or an equity financing priced before the readout. --- ### KODK — Eastman Kodak Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KODK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Industrial power & grid, Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations Thesis: The post-print advance has round-tripped its momentum: the 2026-08-04 AM&C inflection ($105M, +40% YoY) is still the only evidence for the pivot, and with no Kodak filing since then the 2026-09-04 close of $9.29 sits on the $9.20 shelf reclaimed on that print, RSI(14) at 32.5 versus 80.4 on 2026-08-14. The next company-dated event is Q3, est. 2026-11-10, leaving a maturing narrative with nine weeks and nothing to arbitrate it. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.20 surrenders the shelf reclaimed on the 2026-08-04 print and re-opens the July downtrend; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. 2026-11-10) with AM&C revenue under the $105M Q2 level and still no named battery or pharma counterparty would recast the segment jump as a film-demand pulse. --- ### KOPN — Kopin Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOPN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Defense & aerospace, Networking & optical, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy microdisplay maker repriced as an AI-interconnect supplier on Q2 revenue of $12.7M (+51% YoY, beat $12.428M) and guided Q4 2026 GAAP profitability — but the partner release cadence stopped on 2026-08-18, the next company-dated event is the Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-10), and the 2026-09-04 close of $4.28 with RSI(14) at 22.3 leaves a maturing narrative drifting toward its own break level. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 round-trips the August cluster (2026-08-10 beat, 2026-08-11 Canaccord $6.50 target, 2026-08-12 NVLink-ecosystem NDAs, 2026-08-18 steering committee) into the pre-print range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-10) that softens or drops the Q4 2026 GAAP-profitability language. --- ### KOS — Kosmos Energy Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered small-cap — a probe on re-acceleration, not a fat pitch. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 breaks the July bounce off the late-June low and re-opens the $1.50s; reinforced if Brent sustains back under $75 as the Hormuz premium bleeds out and the 'CCC'-rated, ~1.8x-levered balance sheet loses its macro tailwind. --- ### KSS — Kohls Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KSS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Squeeze leg has stalled: Morgan Stanley's 2026-07-06 Underweight/$15 reinit broke the one-way upgrade cluster and knocked the stock -5.9% on 07-08. Price ~$17.18 still holds above the 50- and 200-day, but with the sell-side now two-sided and the $190M tariff cash already known, the tactical edge is gone until it re-bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $16 ends the squeeze leg — that level is both the TD Cowen Hold target and the 200-day area the stock reclaimed in June; losing it on a weekly basis puts the June upgrade shelf behind price. Secondary: the Phase 2 balance of the $190M tariff refund failing to convert from filed claim to booked cash. --- ### KVYO — Klaviyo, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KVYO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The August repair topped at $20.15 on 2026-08-28 and gave back to $18.61 by 09-04 while the Chief Legal Officer and co-founder Ed Hallen sold into $20.01-$20.49 on 08-28 and 08-31. The AI-agent CRM leg now needs K:BOS on 09-09/10 to produce a monetisation number, since nothing else is company-dated before the ~11-11 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with thinning flow. Kill line: K:BOS passing 2026-09-09/10 with no pricing, attach rate or revenue for Composer or Customer Agent, or the Agency deal failing to close inside Q3 2026, would confirm it fundamentally. --- ### LAC — Lithium Americas Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The $3.00 shelf held to the tick — the 2026-09-04 weekly close printed exactly $3.00 while the lithium carbonate benchmark sat at 152,000 CNY/t, +8.38% on the month and +102.7% year-on-year (Trading Economics). With roughly 67.3M Yorkville resale shares registered since 2026-08-17 and no company filing through 2026-09-05, share supply rather than the lithium price still explains the tape. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.00 breaks the shelf that held to the tick on 2026-09-04 and confirms registered Yorkville resale supply is clearing at any price; further confirmed if the remaining $25M tranche is drawn while the GFEX carbonate benchmark holds above 150,000 CNY/t. --- ### LAR — Lithium Argentina AG URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LAR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Commodity transmission is now broken in both directions: the GFEX front carbonate quote came off to ~CNY 152,000/t on 2026-09-04 from CNY 156,140/t on 2026-08-22 while the shares went $6.83 to $6.79. The saturated lithium-recovery story has no company-dated event before the ~2026-09-30 Stage 2 development plan, the first hard capex numbers since the $220M financing closed. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 breaks the shelf that held the early-August lithium flush and re-opens the descent toward the $2.52 prior-cycle low; reinforced if the ~2026-09-30 Stage 2 development plan passes with no weekly close back above $7.00, or if the GFEX front contract loses the CNY 135,560/t early-August low. --- ### LEGN — Legend Biotech Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LEGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: In-vivo CAR-T re-rate has matured into digestion: EHA (6/13) confirmed LB2501's 100% ORR and clean durability, but the 6/17 $226M raise at $29.35 capped the leg and JPM's 7/13 Neutral $35 reinstatement caps the Street. No fresh catalyst until the ~8/12 Q2 CARVYKTI read; sell-the-news gap-fade is the live near-term risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $25.50 fills the pre-data gap and negates the in-vivo CAR-T re-rate; the $29.35 June offering price is the nearer warning shelf. Secondary: a soft Q2 CARVYKTI sales read at the ~2026-08-12 print, or an in-vivo peer printing competing human durability data that flips the theme to saturated. --- ### LGIH — LGI Homes, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGIH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The 2026-06-24 legislative gap is filled: LGIH closed $55.00 on 2026-09-04, under the $56.06 gap origin, after the 2026-08-04 beat-and-raise bought only five weeks of range. Freddie Mac's 30-year survey reversed to 6.71% on 2026-09-03, a 13-month high, and August closings slowed to +9.9% YoY, leaving a dead legislative leg and a rate-beta builder with no company-dated catalyst before the 2026-09-16 FOMC and Lennar's Q3 that evening. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 puts price under the entire post-June range and marks the 2026-06-24 legislative-gap round-trip as trend; the break extends if Freddie Mac's 30-year survey stays above 6.71% through the 2026-09-16 FOMC, or September closings print below August's 409. --- ### LGN — Legence Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: AI-datacenter MEP/HVAC pick-and-shovel story still improving on fundamentals (record $5.38B backlog, FY guide raised to $4.1–4.3B), but the tape has decoupled: ~33% off the $102 May close high, LGN sliced the $76 breakout shelf and rolled its 20-EMA. Guggenheim's $115 (07-10) and the whole $93–115 target band now sit above a falling stock. Broken structure, not a base — the setup does not clear until it proves a higher low. Kill line: A weekly close below $54 loses the April Blackstone secondary strike — the last absorbed-supply shelf — and confirms a value trap rather than a re-entry base; secondary breaks: Q2 (2026-08-09) revenue under the $1.05B guided floor, any cut to the $4.1–4.3B FY guide, or the data-center theme flipping to saturated. --- ### LILAK — Liberty Latin America Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LILAK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-29 Themes: M&A & special situations, Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Post-catalyst drift: the $500M preferred special dividend and the June Malone/Nair insider cluster already drove a ~70% run off $4.76 to ~$8.30, and the tape has stalled at $7.33. Citi cut to Neutral 2026-07-10 with a $8 target already reached; consensus $6.70 sits below spot. No theme, no new catalyst until the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.60 breaks the mid-point of the June–July advance and puts price under the $6.70 consensus target, ending the insider-bottom read; secondarily, a Q2 print around 2026-08-06 showing continued revenue erosion with no buyback execution. --- ### LIND — Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LIND/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Travel & leisure Thesis: The post-print fade has extended: after the 2026-08-03 beat carried price to a $34.48 high, LIND closed $29.59 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 29.3 and no company-dated event before the ~2026-11-03 (est.) Q3 print. The occupancy/pricing execution leg is intact on the numbers but is being marked down on flow alone, leaving a maturing narrative nine weeks from its next test. Kill line: A weekly close below $26.56 fills the 2026-08-03 earnings gap and returns price to the June–July coil it broke out of; secondary: the ~2026-11-03 (est.) Q3 print guiding FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at or below the $130M floor, or occupancy printing below the 91% Q2 level. --- ### LNC — Lincoln National Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LNC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Managed care & health services, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Legacy-risk-transfer re-rating: the 2026-07-30 Talcott deal cedes ~$5.8B of GUL statutory reserves for ~$200M all-in statutory capital, alongside a Q2 adjusted EPS beat at $2.24 vs $1.96. But the information is out, price sits 2.1% under the 52wk high and above the $43 median target, and nothing is scheduled until the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $42 gives back the July deal-driven re-rating and returns price to the pre-announcement broker-target zone (JPM $42, TD Cowen $42); secondarily, the Talcott cession failing to close in Q4 2026 as guided. --- ### LOVE — The Lovesac Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LOVE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-08-27 notice made the binary real: Q2 FY27 lands before the open on 2026-09-10 against a company bar of $157–166M net sales and −$4M to +$2M adjusted EBITDA. Price closed $16.69 on 2026-09-04, under the 50-day at $16.95 and above a rising 200-day at $15.00, while the short base decayed again to 2.81M shares / 26.34% of float, leaving a maturing setup whose squeeze asymmetry keeps thinning into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.50 forfeits the summer range and leaves only the rising 200-day near $15.00 beneath; secondary: Q2 FY27 net sales printing under the company's own $157M low end on 2026-09-10, or FY27 net sales guided beneath the $700M floor. --- ### LQDA — Liquidia Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LQDA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-print rejection intact: LQDA closed $68.66 on 2026-09-04, four cents above the 2026-08-21 break close of $68.62, with RSI(14) at 30.4 and the 2026-09-03 SSc-RP Fast Track absorbed without a new bid. The narrative leg now on offer is indication expansion — RE-WARM Phase 2a starts October 2026 — layered on a reiterated >$1B 2027 guide, but no company-dated binary lands before the ~2026-11-10 Q3 print except the undated '327 bench ruling. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 puts the shares under the entire May 2026 post-Q1 target cluster ($59–$70) and marks the market repricing the >$1B 2027 guide. Secondary: a docket entry in D. Del. 1:23-cv-00975 granting permanent PH-ILD injunctive relief, or the 2026-09-08 conference and ERS posters passing with closes still under $70. --- ### LRMR — Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LRMR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Single-asset FA regulatory binary sitting on the line that defines it: the week ending 2026-09-04 closed $3.83, 0.8% above the twice-tested $3.80 shelf, after five weeks with no company press release since the 2026-08-04 Q2 update. The only dated item inside 30 days is the 2026-09-30 Q3 boundary for first-patient dosing in the confirmatory Phase 3, a guidance date rather than a scheduled announcement, leaving a maturing narrative to drift on an empty calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.80 breaks the twice-tested post-anaphylaxis shelf (2026-07-10 and 2026-07-22 lows), which the 2026-09-04 weekly close at $3.83 held by 0.8%; secondarily, Q3 ending 2026-09-30 with no first-patient dosing announced in the confirmatory Phase 3, or rolling-BLA completion slipping out of 2H 2026. --- ### LZ — LegalZoom.com, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/LZ/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: AI-reset narrative — a busted online legal-forms IPO repositioning as an AI-enabled SMB subscription platform (Anthropic partner, AI "digital mailroom") — drove a +29% 30-day rip into July. But it's stretched into the 2026-08-05 Q2 print, whose guided revenue midpoint ($205M) sits below consensus ($207.96M). A fresh long at $7.73 is a chase into a binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 fails the June breakout base ($5.50–6.00) and voids the momentum leg; separately, an in-line-to-soft Q2 on 2026-08-05 that confirms the guide midpoint below consensus $207.96M would mark the rip complete. --- ### M — Macy's Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/M/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Morgan Stanley broke the all-Hold wall on 2026-07-06, resuming at Overweight with a $30 target and a $3 EPS-power call vs ~$2 consensus — the first real upgrade catalyst since the Q1 beat. But price faded the note ($23.99 → $22.64 by 07-12) before recovering to ~$24, still ~8% under the $26.10 high, with nothing scheduled until the ~early-Sept Q2 print. Base-building, not a breakout. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 forfeits the July base built after the Morgan Stanley upgrade and confirms the sell-side re-rating failed to attract flow; secondary: the ~2026-09-03 Q2 print landing in-guide ($0.29–$0.34) and missing the ~$0.35 Street number. --- ### MAMA — Mama's Creations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAMA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The 2026-09-03 binary resolved for the fundamentals and against the tape: Q2 FY2027 revenue $54.58M (+55%) and EPS $0.06 both beat, gross margin recovered to 24.0% from 23.6%, and the shares still closed 2026-09-04 at $15.16, below the failed $16.44 shelf. The roll-up leg now needs the $138.6M cash line deployed, and no acquisition carries a date. Kill line: A weekly close below $15.00 surrenders the entire advance off the 2026-06-08 Q1 print; secondarily, the $138.6M cash line still fully uncommitted at the ~2026-12-08 (est.) Q3 FY2027 print leaves a 47.1M share count against no acquired EBITDA. --- ### MANH — Manhattan Associates, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MANH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Freight & logistics Thesis: Cloud-conversion re-rating has printed a new 52-week high: the 2026-08-28 close of $223.28 is 0.2% under the $223.76 high, RSI(14) 79.7, with price 4.2% above the $213.90 aggregate analyst target. The only new input since the 2026-07-28 beat-and-raise is Baird's 2026-08-26 move to $260 from $218; nothing company-dated resolves before the Q3 print carried at ~2026-10-20 (est.), leaving a maturing narrative running on one broker's revision. Kill line: A weekly close below $205 unwinds the late-August extension that carried price through the $213.90 consensus target and returns the tape to the post-print range. Secondary: the Q3 print (~2026-10-20 est.) showing RPO growth materially below the Q2 pace of +23% YoY, or the earnings-date release passing with no revision dated after Baird's 2026-08-26 $260 mark. --- ### MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MARA/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-24 Themes: Bitcoin miners, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, GPU cloud & neoclouds, Crypto exchanges & financials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: AI/HPC power-buildout re-rate is the leg being bought — the 2026-07-09 HIF deal adds up to 2 GW in Texas, lifting potential capacity toward ~4.8 GW — but the golden-cross base fully round-tripped to ~$11.4 as analysts cut across the board (MS $5.50, Piper $13) and MARA still trades as leveraged Bitcoin beta into a 21-month-low tape. Narrative real, structure broken; a low-conviction probe at most. Kill line: A weekly close below $10 (loses the July shelf and the round number under the sub-$13 analyst cluster, confirming the AI-power-buildout bid is not being paid for and MARA is tracking the sub-$60K Bitcoin tape toward the $5.50 bear target); reinforced by a BTC weekly close under $60K. --- ### MATV — Mativ Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MATV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: The deleveraging and margin leg is intact on the numbers but the flow behind it has drained: RSI(14) fell from 92.0 on 2026-08-07 to 37.5 on 2026-08-28 as the close slipped to $12.13, leaving price near the $11.50 gap-fill from the 2026-08-05 beat with nothing company-dated until the 2026-09-23 Sidoti conference and a Q3 print around 2026-11-05. Kill line: A weekly close below $11.50 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print shelf; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.) showing adjusted EBITDA margin under 13% or net debt failing to fall from $908.2M would break the deleveraging leg. --- ### MAX — MediaAlpha, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: MediaAlpha pre-announced Q3 revenue, contribution and adjusted EBITDA at or above the top end of the $330–355M guide on 2026-09-03, and the tape faded it — $12.22 on 09-03, $12.05 on 09-04, RSI(14) 40.5, 15.6% under the $14.27 high. Targets sit $15–$17 with an eight-analyst average of $15.43 while price sits on the $12 shelf, leaving a maturing narrative where good news no longer buys a higher close. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 puts price back inside the July advance and ends the post-print consolidation. Secondary: Q3 contribution margin under 14.5% versus 14.9% in Q2, a Q4 guide implying single-digit YoY revenue growth, or a third straight quarter with no disclosed autoinsurance.net economics. --- ### MAZE — Maze Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAZE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: APOL1 kidney proof-of-concept intact and funded into 2029, but the only news since the last note was a conference calendar: the 2026-09-02 release scheduled fireside chats on Sept 9, 10 and 15 and repeated the late-2026/early-2027 HORIZON window. The RSI(14) repair to 50.9 (2026-08-28) gave back to 40.7 at the $26.21 close on 2026-09-04, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-controlled data before ASN Kidney Week on 2026-10-21. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.50 forfeits the April 2026 placement level and the post-HORIZON base; secondarily, the Sept 9/10/15 conference block and ASN Kidney Week (Oct 21–25) passing with no incremental MZE829 cohort detail, or a Q3 report (~2026-11-10) moving all-cohort HORIZON data out of the guided late-2026/early-2027 window. --- ### MBX — MBX Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MBX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The Q3 commitment landed early — first patient dosed in the pivotal Phase 3 oPTimize trial on 2026-08-27 — and the tape sold it: $66.33 on 08-21 to $61.72 on 09-04, RSI(14) 30.2, 12.7% under the $70.70 high. The compiled consensus stayed at $88.36 across 12 analysts with no rating action since 08-21. With a Week-26 composite endpoint and no guided topline date, the calendar is empty until MBX-4291's Q4 obesity data. Kill line: A weekly close below $53 forfeits the June all-time-high shelf the July–August advance launched from. Secondary: the Q4 2026 window for MBX-4291 12-week multiple-ascending-dose data closing on 2026-12-31 with no release, leaving no dated data event on the calendar. --- ### MCHP — Microchip Technology Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MCHP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors, Industrial power & grid, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: AI-data-center re-rating leg is unwinding — round-tripped from the $105.91 May ATH to the ~$84 50-day EMA under an unrebutted J Capital short thesis and a 2026-07-13 TD Cowen PT cut to $90; only the cyclical MCU/industrial recovery (~93% of revenue) stays intact into the ~2026-08-04 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 loses the July low and 50-day EMA, confirming the failed post-guidance breakout and opening the 200-day near $74; separately, a DCS CY2026 guide cut below ~$500M or DCS YoY under +50% at the ~2026-08-04 print kills the re-rating leg. --- ### MDB — MongoDB, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MDB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Atlas re-acceleration (+29.4% YoY, record $117M seq add; Q1 FY27, 2026-05-28) is intact, but the +18.5% post-print breakout fully round-tripped from $444.72 to a $294.10 close as the AI-software theme sold on margin-timing fear. Sell-side is re-warming (Truist $400 7/9, Needham $430 7/10); narrative accelerating, structure repairing but unconfirmed — see a base and $340 reclaim before chasing. Kill line: A weekly close below $290 loses the late-June swing low and confirms the failed breakout extending into a downtrend with no base; reinforced if the AI-enterprise-software theme flips to saturated on Oracle/peer de-rating. --- ### MEDP — Medpace Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MEDP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Thesis: Bookings-inflection leg (Q2 awards $795.7M, +28.2% YoY, 1.13x book-to-bill, FY26 guide raised 2026-07-22) unchanged on fundamentals, but the tape has given back part of the August recovery — $600.65 on 08-28 to $591.29 on 09-04 — while the six-name insider cluster ended with a token 650-share CEO sale on 08-27, leaving a saturated narrative with no company-dated catalyst until the est. late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $578 takes out the 2026-08-14 pullback low and reopens the 2026-07-22 earnings gap; secondary — net book-to-bill under 1.10x at the est. late-October Q3 print, or fresh Form 4 sales at weighted averages below the $585.07 floor of the August band. --- ### MGM — MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MGM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: M&A & special situations, Prediction markets & betting, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-10-01 Thesis: Take-private process went live: WSJ reported substantive Diller talks 2026-07-10, MGM seated a special committee mid-July, and the board reportedly views $48.30 as too low — so the trade is now a bump handicap, not a growth story. At ~$46.91 (2026-07-16) that is ~3% to the bid, ~11% to Macquarie's $52, against ~20% deal-break air. Capped arb. Kill line: A daily close below $44 breaks the arb band that has held since the 2026-06-01 bid and confirms the ~20% path to the high-$30s undisturbed shelf; secondarily, a special-committee rejection or Diller withdrawal without a topping bid ends the setup regardless of price. --- ### MKSI — MKS Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MKSI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Operating leg accelerating into a de-rating tape: Q2 (2026-08-05) beat at $1.248B revenue / $3.30 adj EPS, Q3 guide $1.310–1.390B tops the $1.243B Street, leverage down to 3.0x — and the stock still fell 4.49% on the print and sits 31.4% below the $444.80 high. Picks-and-shovels narrative now saturated, with no company binary until the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $280 (decisively beneath the May shelf the July round-trip returned to); secondarily, Q3 revenue under the $1.310B guide floor, or net leverage stalling at or above 3.0x at the Q3 print. --- ### MLKN — MillerKnoll, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MLKN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The August breakout is still unwound: $22.92 on 2026-09-04, 5.6% under the $24.29 adjusted 52-week high, RSI(14) back to 46.8 from 37.1 with no operating data changed since 2026-06-24. Everything now sits on the 2026-09-22 Q1 FY2027 print — the first update to orders and backlog after -6.9% organic and a $679M backlog — leaving a maturing re-rating story with exactly one dated resolver. Kill line: A weekly close below $22 retraces the entire August breakout and returns price to the 2026-07-24 coil near $21.46; secondary, the 2026-09-22 Q1 FY2027 print landing inside or under the $0.33–$0.39 EPS guide with organic orders down YoY again and backlog below the $679M reported 2026-06-24. --- ### MMYT — MakeMyTrip Limited URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MMYT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-10 Themes: Travel & leisure, Fintech & consumer credit, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: MakeMyTrip's mid-year recovery bounce has stalled: after reclaiming the 200-day near $55, MMYT rolled back to ~$49, below both the 50- and 200-day, straight into an August 3 Q1 FY2027 print where consensus models EPS down ~76% YoY on ~137x trailing earnings. A maturing India-OTA leader where the binary print, not the chart, sets the next leg — the setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 loses the 50-day and the last recovery shelf, dropping the bounce back into the $33–46 base; a soft August 3 Q1 FY2027 print confirming deeper take-rate/margin compression and stalled air-ticketing flips the theme from recovery to decelerating. --- ### MOH — Molina Healthcare, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: Trough-year Medicaid recovery is intact on the numbers — FY26 adjusted EPS guided to at least $5.25 on 2026-07-22 — but the price leg has stalled: three weeks of closes near $200 under the $205 breakout-gap floor, with RSI(14) down to 46.2. The 2026-09-02 scheduling release puts the next company event 46 days out on 2026-10-21, leaving a maturing narrative with an empty window in front of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $188 takes out the pre-breakout $188–192 shelf and ends the trough-recovery leg. Secondary: the 2026-10-21 Q3 print guiding FY26 adjusted EPS back under $5.25 or lifting the 92.6% consolidated MCR guide. --- ### MOV — Movado Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MOV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Q2 FY2027 (2026-08-26) cleared every line — 59.4% gross margin, $0.54 adjusted EPS vs $0.35, sales $169.8M vs $164.2M — and the shares still closed 2026-09-04 at $33.97, below the $34.96 pre-print level. Management guided second-half gross margin down to 55%–56% and made the absence of annual guidance permanent, leaving a maturing margin story with no company-dated catalyst before the December quarter. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 loses the $31–33 shelf left by the 2026-05-27 earnings gap and ends the margin re-rate structure. Secondary: Q3 FY2027 (~2026-12-03, est.) printing gross margin beneath the guided 55%–56% band, or the ~2026-09-22 Swiss export data showing US-bound shipments down year over year with no bid response. --- ### MPWR — Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MPWR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The AI-power read-across stopped transmitting: NVIDIA printed $96.2B revenue and $89B Data Center on 2026-08-26 and guided Q3 to $108B, yet MPWR closed 2026-09-04 at $1,223.86 — through the 2026-06-26 pivot of $1,313.32, RSI(14) at 20.0, 27.5% under the 52-week high. Fundamentals (Q3 guide $1,140–1,160M vs ~$982M consensus) and price have decoupled, leaving the $1,200 shelf as the next reference and no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-10-29 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $1,200 forfeits the last horizontal reference beneath the lost 2026-06-26 pivot at $1,313.32. Secondary: Q3 revenue at the ~2026-10-29 print landing at or under the $1,140M guide floor, or a second AI-infrastructure event of 2026-08-26 magnitude passing with no MPWR bid. --- ### MRAM — Everspin Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MRAM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: AI chips & memory, Squeeze & momentum setups, Defense & aerospace, Space economy, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: Sympathy bid off the Micron-led memory supercycle and Russell 2000 inclusion floored the post-parabola markdown in the low-$20s, but the ~2026-07-28 Q2 print is now the binary: Everspin must show a non-casino datacenter/AI design win or the markdown resumes toward the $14–18 analyst cluster. Weakest-exposed, most-shorted memory name at ~1,800x earnings. Kill line: A weekly close below $20 forfeits the low-$20s base and 50-day-MA shelf held since early June, reopening the $14–$18 analyst-target cluster as the markdown resumes; a Q2 print (~2026-07-28) that reaffirms the ~$60M run-rate with no datacenter/AI design win removes the sympathy bid. --- ### MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-08 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Housing-rebound-on-rate-cuts trade that carried MTH to a $85.38 52-week high has reversed: it lost the $75 June breakout shelf to $74.17 (-4.2% on 7/17) as mortgages held at 6.49% and Zelman capitulated to Neutral (7/7). Fundamentals still rolling over (Q1 EPS -51%, GM 22%→17.5%) into the 7/29 binary print — momentum broken, not a fresh long. Kill line: A weekly close below $72 confirms the June breakout shelf ($75) is fully lost and opens the low-$60s toward GF Value $68.99 and the 52-week low $58.03; secondary: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print showing gross margin compressing below 17.5% with orders down again YoY. --- ### MTSI — MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTSI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-10 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-21 Thesis: AI optical-interconnect arms-dealer with fundamentals still accelerating (FY26 DC growth guide >60%, Q3 guide $331-339M) but a July-broken chart: ~36% off the $418.90 high to ~$267 on the semi selloff, Russell Value index removal, and SATCOM oversupply worry. Broken structure into the 2026-07-30 earnings binary — the setup does not clear until it bases. Kill line: A weekly close below $255 loses the July capitulation low and turns the pullback into a trend break. Secondary: a Q3 print (2026-07-30) that cuts FY26 Data Center growth back below 60%, SATCOM oversupply confirmed as demand-side, or optical peers COHR/CRDO/ALAB losing their 50-days together (theme → saturated). --- ### MTUM URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MTUM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-02 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit. Kill line: A weekly close below $296 (loses the mid-July shelf) opens the gap toward the rising 200-day near $270 and confirms the AI-memory leg the fund now expresses is in a full unwind; an Intel miss on 2026-07-23 or a soft Lam Research guide on 2026-07-29 that extends the semi-cap derating seals it. --- ### MXL — MaxLinear, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MXL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The AI-optical revenue leg still compounds — Q3 guided to $210–220M against Q2's $168.8M — while the price leg makes new lows: the 2026-09-04 close of $62.74 is 51.0% below the $128.03 high with RSI(14) at 25.1, after roughly $50M of Seendripu-trust stock was sold or filed for sale on 2026-08-14/17. Nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-22 print; the 2026-09-09 Citi slot is the last scheduled webcast. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 puts price under the entire post-Q2-print range including the $67 early-August area, marking a trending decline rather than a base; secondary break is the 2026-09-09 Citi and 2026-09-10 StoneX slots passing with no update to the $210–230M 2026 optical range, or Q3 revenue landing inside rather than above the $210–220M guide. --- ### MYE — Myers Industries, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-30 Themes: Small-cap value rotation, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Legacy plastics maker re-rated ~2.4x on a "Focused Transformation" — MTS distribution arm in discontinued ops, capital concentrated behind Signature/MegaDeck composite matting (Infrastructure orders +130% YoY, Q1 adj EPS $0.44 vs $0.28). Narrative is real; the tape topped 2026-07-01 at $35.75 and has stalled at $31 into a 2026-07-30 print carrying resin-cost margin risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $29 breaks the post-spike consolidation shelf and opens the gap to the $27 June breakout base; a 2026-07-30 print with adjusted gross margin below the 34.7% Q1 level on resin costs, absent offsetting Infrastructure order growth, confirms the top. --- ### MYGN — Myriad Genetics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MYGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-26 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Legacy hereditary-cancer testing house executing a diagnostics pivot; shares +40% off the June $3.99 base as Prolaris+AI launched (May 26) and Precise MRD colorectal/renal was pulled forward to Q3. Structure has repaired but now consolidates into a binary Aug 4 Q2 print, with the Street Hold-rated and price already at its consensus target. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.75 breaks the July $5.75–$6.26 consolidation shelf and voids the recovery leg, re-exposing the $4.00 June base; secondarily, a soft Aug 4 Q2 print that fails the guided 2H>1H acceleration would confirm the pivot has not yet inflected. --- ### NABL — N-able, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NABL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Thesis: The cyber-pivot re-rating leg died with the 2026-08-10 guidance cut; what has bid the stock since is the issuer itself — a $50M buyback increase approved 2026-08-27 lifting total authorization to $125M. The 2026-09-04 close of $4.06 sits above all four reset sell-side targets ($3.65–$4.00) with RSI(14) at 73.9, and nothing checkable resolves before the Q3 print around 2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.63 erases the move that followed the 2026-08-27 buyback announcement and returns price into the post-print base off the 2026-08-10 close of $3.19; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-11-04, est.) with revenue under the guided $134.5M floor, or a second consecutive sequential ARR decline from $544.5M. --- ### NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NBR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-19 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-06 Thesis: Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium — lands in ~3 trading days as binary risk. maturing and largely priced; a fresh long buys peak news into a coin-flip. The setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $85 loses the prior breakout shelf and 20-EMA support zone and confirms the war premium is unwinding; a WTI weekly close under $80 or a verified US–Iran ceasefire headline is the fundamental accelerant toward a $55–70 mean-reversion for this ~2x-beta driller. --- ### NCLH — Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NCLH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The published $16 break fired: the week ending 2026-09-04 closed at $15.57, the second failed shelf in sixteen days after $18 gave way on 2026-08-20. Crude drove both — WTI settled $91.48 on 2026-09-01 — and with RSI(14) at 17.3, no company print until 2026-11-04 and only the 2026-09-30 Elliott director deadline on the near calendar, the June fuel-relief narrative is dead in its original form. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 puts price inside the $13 low end of the sell-side band with no base formed after the 2026-09-04 washout. Secondary: 2026-09-30 passing with no additional independent director named under the Elliott cooperation agreement. --- ### NEO — NeoGenomics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Oncology-dx turnaround accelerating — NGS +26%, PTEN IHC CDx (first FDA IHC companion dx in prostate, paired to AZ's TRUQAP) launched Jul 9, and TD Cowen $14→$19 / BofA $11→$16 on Jul 13 lifted consensus to ~$15.67, back above spot. But Q2 moved forward to Jul 28 after the close: RSI ~74 within 6% of the $15.57 high makes a fresh chase a guidance bet, not a structure bet. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.70 forfeits the June breakout above the prior $13.74 all-time high and the $14.16 convertible conversion level, turning the move into a failed extension; secondarily, a 2026-07-28 Q2 print with NGS growth decelerating below ~20% YoY or an unchanged $797M–$803M full-year guide confirms the break. --- ### NEXA — Nexa Resources S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NEXA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: M&A & special situations, Critical materials & rare earths, Emerging markets Thesis: Cyclical zinc-recovery confirmed and fully priced: Q1 EBITDA +126% YoY and Aripuanã's record 13kt ramp drove a run to the $16.89 high, but the equity now chops $12–13 while LME zinc printed a fresh 2026 high near US$3,622 — a bearish divergence. Three July PT raises kept ratings at Neutral/Underperform; no Buy re-rate. Strength leg spent; the setup does not clear without an $11–12 base or a rating upgrade. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 loses the April breakout base and confirms a cyclical top; reinforced if LME zinc 3M sustains under US$3,200/t or the Q2 production report shows Aripuanã zinc regressing below the Q1 record of 13,000t. --- ### NOK — Nokia Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NOK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-30 Themes: Networking & optical, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Thesis: AI-networking legacy re-rate extending on a harder catalyst leg — first commercial AI-RAN platform with Nvidia (07-15) plus Taiwan Mobile, Orange Belgium and NestAI defense wins. Theme accelerating, but the 2026-07-23 pre-open Q2 print is a binary ~3 trading days out; chasing near $11.56 into it is poor risk/reward. The setup does not clear without the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 loses the late-May breakout shelf and rising 20-week EMA; confirmed by a Q2 print (2026-07-23) with Network Infrastructure/data-center revenue flat-to-down YoY, or the theme flipping to saturated as political/retail attention peaks without revenue follow-through. --- ### NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-09 Themes: Managed care & health services, Oil, energy & geopolitical Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-07-21 beat-and-raise has round-tripped: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $31.71 is under the $32 post-print shelf, BMO cut to Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and the CFO sold 100,000 shares into $30.74–$32.12 on Aug 12–13. Operations still compound (+33% Q2 revenue), but the fresh-attention leg is spent and nothing is dated before the ~late-October Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 loses the $30.74–$32.12 band held through mid-August and puts the 2026-05-13 follow-on price of $27.50 back in play; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-21, est.) that leaves the FY2026 $199M guide unraised, or no weekly close back above $32 before it, confirms the re-rating has stalled. --- ### NRIX — Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NRIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Roche-partnered BTK degrader holding the post-Phase-3 shelf but running out of dated events: the 2026-09-01 release named four September investor conferences and no medical meeting, so the 09-09/12 SOHO window looks set to pass without bexobrutideg data. RSI(14) has bled from 81.3 on 2026-08-14 to 42.2 on 2026-09-04 while price moved under 1%, leaving a maturing narrative propped by a $31–40 sell-side band unchanged since 2026-08-10. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 surrenders both the 2026-07-21 Roche gap and the 2026-08-04 Phase 3 gap and ends the post-deal shelf; secondary: the 2026-09-09/12 SOHO window closing with no bexobrutideg dataset, leaving no clinical update before ASH abstract titles in ~November. --- ### NSIT — Insight Enterprises, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NSIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, AI enterprise software Thesis: Genuine VAR margin-mix turnaround (Q1 GM +240bps, cloud GP +35%) but a derivative AI tag: hardware GP guided flat, sales +1%. Range-bound $102–123 since the early-June rejection; ~$110 already sits above the ~$103 street target with a 50<200 death cross intact. Not accelerating — a stand-aside until it reclaims $123 or bases lower into the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $100 breaks the recovery base and the mid-June floor, confirming the value-trap mean-reversion path; a second flat-hardware-GP guide at the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print with no services re-acceleration reinforces it. --- ### NVEC — NVE Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NVEC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, Physical AI & robotics, Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: The single-quarter re-rate has round-tripped: the 2026-08-28 close of $100.89 lost the $105 gap shelf, RSI(14) is 27.6, and the shares are up 0.8% over three months despite an 81% revenue quarter reported 2026-07-22. No company news or filing since then, so the price leg is dead and only the ~2026-10-21 Q2 print can restart it by showing product sales near the $10.73M June level. Kill line: A weekly close below $86 surrenders the pre-print zone the 2026-07-23 gap started from and prices the June quarter as an outlier; secondarily, Q2 FY2027 product sales (~2026-10-21 est.) printing materially under the $10.73M June-quarter level would confirm the pull-forward reading. --- ### NWPX — NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NWPX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-17 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Legacy steel-pipe maker re-rated into a water-infrastructure + precast roll-up on a record $373M WTS backlog, an ~83% Q1 beat, and the Permalok RBJ field win. Narrative intact but the setup is extended — last near $148, ~35% above the ~$109 consensus PT at all-time highs, now inside the blackout window ahead of the ~Aug 5 Q2 print. Fresh entries chase a binary at the high. Kill line: A weekly close below $120 forfeits the early-June breakout shelf (~$122–128) and the rising trend; secondary break if the ~Aug 5 Q2 print shows WTS backlog rolling over beneath the $373M Q1 record or municipal funding shifts away from steel/concrete pipe. --- ### NXPI — NXP Semiconductors N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NXPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The 2026-07-28 beat-and-raise still is not being paid for: the 2026-09-04 close of $227.84 sits 1.0% above the 2026-08-21 weekly close that defended $225, no desk has revised a target since the UBS cut to $270, and Broadcom's record 2026-09-02 print sold off — a dead narrative with no company-dated catalyst between the 2026-09-16 ex-dividend and the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $220 fails the shelf the 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-04 closes have held and reopens the spring low area near $183 on the unadjusted series; secondary, the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing inside the guided $3.65–3.85B and still trading lower, repeating 2026-07-28. --- ### ODD — ODDITY Tech Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Broken compounder with exactly one dated event: the 2026-09-09 pre-market Q2 print. Price ran $13.22 (2026-08-21) to $14.35 (2026-08-28) on no company disclosure since 2026-07-22, leaving it ~30% above the $11.07 consensus target of 10 analysts with RSI(14) at 61.9 into a gap that resolves first-order trend, CPA direction and the FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA guide. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 abandons the shelf the 2026-08-21 close of $13.22 defended and re-opens the ~$9.25 July bounce origin; secondary condition: the 2026-09-09 Q2 print shows first orders still down more than 40% YoY with CPA unimproved, or the FY2026 positive-adjusted-EBITDA guide is cut or withdrawn. --- ### ODFL — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ODFL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-07 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-10 Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Freight-cycle recovery in the top-margin LTL name is drawing a broadening upgrade cluster now printing above spot (Stifel $256 Jul 21, Truist $250 Jul 15, RJ $241 Jul 13), but growth is still rate and mix with tons/day negative. The 2026-07-29 pre-market Q2 print is the binary on whether volume finally confirms; the setup does not clear ahead of it. Kill line: A weekly close below $220 loses the rising 50-day and fills the June 10 Amazon gap; secondary, a July 29 Q2 print with LTL tons/day still negative while ex-fuel rev/cwt decelerates under +5% — the yield-led recovery breaking with no volume to replace it. --- ### OEC — Orion S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OEC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-07 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Deep-cyclical carbon black where the 2024–25 tire-restock leg already failed (-32.5% from the $10.72 52-week high). What is left is a trough-and-deleverage read: Q2 2026 adj. EBITDA $58.2M (+26% sequential, -15% YoY), FY26 guide reaffirmed at $170–210M against $961M net debt and 4.4x leverage. Nothing scheduled inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.50 (2026-08-07 close was $7.24) prices FY26 beneath the reaffirmed $170M adjusted-EBITDA floor; secondary: that band cut or net leverage printing above 4.4x at the Q3 report (~2026-11-05, est.). --- ### OFIX — Orthofix Medical Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OFIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services Thesis: The CMS-reversal re-rate is finished and the structure went with it: the $9.80 shelf gave way on the 2026-08-28 weekly close of $9.70, 40.2% below the $16.23 high, while the published sell-side range collapsed from $16–24 to $12–14. Raised FY26 guidance of $845–855M is the only support left, and no company-dated event lands before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.30 extends the break of the $9.80 shelf that failed on the 2026-08-28 close of $9.70, with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print; secondary, a Q3 print with revenue under Q2's $210.9M or adjusted EBITDA below the year-ago $20.6M. --- ### ON — ON Semiconductor Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ON/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The AI-power re-rate is unwinding, not consolidating: ON closed $87.37 on 7/17, below the 6/26 Synaptics deal-gap floor, with targets cut twice in three weeks (TD Cowen to $95 on 7/13, Mizuho to $125 on 7/1). Merger-arb supply plus a fixed 1.350 exchange ratio caps rallies until the 2026-08-03 Q2 print resets the story. Kill line: A weekly close below $84 confirms the post-deal unwind is extending with no base formed off the July shelf; secondary: the 2026-08-03 Q2 print showing AI data-center revenue off the guided double-YoY pace, or gross margin landing under the 38% guide floor. --- ### ONDS — Ondas Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ONDS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The tariff leg is spent: Section 232 duties took force 2026-09-03 and ONDS closed $7.62 on 2026-09-04, below every close of proclamation week and 45.6% under the $14.01 high. What is left is delivery — a $140–$155M Q3 guide against $83.772M reported — with no company release since 2026-08-18 and nothing dated before the ~November print. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 confirms the drawdown from $14.01 is extending rather than basing, with Section 232 already in force since 2026-09-03. Secondary: the Aran close slipping past ~2026-09-30 or settling predominantly in stock, or a share count above 529.8M disclosed at the Q3 print. --- ### OPI — Office Properties Income Trust Common shares of beneficial interest URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OPI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: Post-reorg asset-sale arithmetic — $511.5M equity, $1.707B debt, 32 properties identified for sale — is trading on nothing new: no company release since 2026-08-05 and no EDGAR filing since Redwood's 2026-08-19 13D/A cut to 18.0%, with a flat tape at $17.73 on 2026-09-04 versus $17.75 on 2026-08-28 and RSI(14) at 31.0. Identified supply has paused, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $17 hands back the entire July–August post-reorg advance and the shelf under the 2026-08-05 print; secondarily, the pending 9-property pool closing under the $49.7M disclosed on 2026-08-05, or a new Redwood 13D/A under 18.0%. --- ### ORBS — Eightco Holdings Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORBS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Crypto exchanges & financials, Cybersecurity Thesis: Eightco is a listed wrapper on 301,971,219 WLD, 16,278 ETH and $90M of indirect OpenAI SPV equity — ~$380M of stated holdings on 2026-09-02 against a $388.35M market cap, so no discount remains to close. The collapse from a $45.08 high to a $0.90 close and the 2026-08-05 Nasdaq bid-price notice leave a dead narrative whose only live leg is WLD beta plus an executing $125M buyback. Kill line: A weekly close below $0.75 breaks the flat band held since the Nasdaq measurement window opened 2026-06-23; secondary confirmation would be WLD losing $0.35 or a holdings update printing materially below the ~$380M reported for 2026-09-02. --- ### ORIC — Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ORIC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-15 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: mCRPC PRC2 story de-risked as rinzimetostat enters registrational Phase 3 (Himalayas-1, 2026-07-14) with Bayer supplying NUBEQA and a J&J-backed enozertinib lung program behind it. But pivotal data is 2028+, so the only near-term mover is undated enozertinib 2H-2026 readouts. Range-bound $7–15 tape; build on weakness, not a breakout chase at $10.73. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.50 gives back the post-Phase-3-initiation advance and re-enters the lower half of the 52-week range; a disappointing enozertinib 2H-2026 readout or a pre-Phase-3 capital raise would confirm the break. --- ### OTLY — Oatly Group AB URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OTLY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The 2026-07-22 guidance doubling (FY constant-currency growth 8–10% from 3–5%) is six weeks old with no follow-on company news; RSI(14) rebuilt to 67.1 at the 2026-08-28 close of $14.67 from 43.7 a week earlier on no information, and the next dated test — Q3 results — is estimated anywhere from 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-16, leaving a maturing narrative carried by momentum against $517.8M of borrowings and $44.6M of cash. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.00 removes the August 2026 shelf (closes of $13.035 on 2026-08-11 and $13.150 on 2026-08-12), the only floor the post-guidance advance has built; secondarily, a Q3 2026 print (est. 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-16) walking FY constant-currency growth back toward 3–5% or narrowing adjusted EBITDA below $25M. --- ### OUST — Ouster, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/OUST/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: Physical AI & robotics, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Squeeze leg broke: +43% in four sessions to a $63.79 high, then management priced 3.62M shares at $55.22 (~8% discount) and closed ~$191.9M net on 2026-07-06. Price round-tripped to $37.04, under the 20- and 50-day and under the $49 average target. Narrative intact, chart is not; Q2 lands 2026-08-06 with no repaired base. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 loses the July capitulation low and confirms the June–July sequence as a distribution top, opening a retest of the rising 200-day near $28. Secondary: a Q2 print on 2026-08-06 with product revenue under the ~$49.5M low end, gross margin below the 35–40% guide, or fresh ATM issuance. --- ### PAY — Paymentus Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Beaten-down bill-pay compounder: Q1 2026 revenue +30.2% YoY yet shares carved a $20.11 June 52-week low on margin-mix fear. Now ~40% off that low into a binary ~Aug-4 Q2 print — the read is a recovering base, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $23.00 surrenders the June-low recovery base near $20.11 and reopens the downtrend; a second contribution-margin step-down on the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print would confirm the mix-shift bear case. --- ### PBI — Pitney Bowes Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PBI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-18 Thesis: PBI broke the $17.62 shelf to a fresh 52-week high $18.62 (Jul 16) — the buyback/cost-cut re-rate is now extending, not consolidating. But revenue still shrinks ~3% YoY, consensus PT $16.43 sits below spot, and Q2 prints after close Jul 29. Momentum is real; the entry window into a binary print on a shrinking top line is not. Kill line: A weekly close below $16.70 loses the rising 50-day and drops price back inside the old $15.50–$17.62 base, marking the July breakout as a failed high; secondary: an FY26 adj-EPS guide cut below $1.50 or quarterly buyback pace under ~$50M on the Jul 29 print. --- ### PCOR — Procore Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCOR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Thesis: The 2026-07-29 re-rating has unwound: the 2026-09-04 close of $58.01 completed the week below the $58.74 shelf, retracing the whole newsless August advance to $63.49, with RSI(14) back at 49.0 from 73.2. No company release has come since 2026-08-06 and no rating action since 2026-08-03, leaving a saturated story with nothing dated before Groundbreak on 2026-10-20. Kill line: A weekly close below $55.26 — where the company priced $825.0M of converts and repurchased 3.17M shares on 2026-08-04 — puts price under the whole post-print financing range; secondary confirm is a Q3 print (~2026-10-29 est.) that trims the $1.510–1.514B FY26 range or qualifies the FY27 25% non-GAAP operating margin target. --- ### PCT — PureCycle Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PCT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-18 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-01 Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-dilution repair story: the June 10–15 raise (~$145M equity + $287.5M 4.75% converts, ~$11.08 conv) roughly halved the stock to ~$8 while the commercial ramp (Q1 record 8.4M-lb output, +161% revenue) held. The 2026-07-15 Mitsui/RM TOHCELLO Japan packaging deal re-lights offtake, but structure stays broken with no confirmed base — a floor has to form before the loaded ~41%-of-float short base becomes squeeze fuel. Kill line: A weekly close below $7 confirms the post-dilution downtrend with no base and opens the $4.93 52-week low; secondarily, another below-market raise or Q2 output stalling under the ~8M-lb/quarter pace breaks the commercial-ramp thesis. --- ### PDFS — PDF Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PDFS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI enterprise software, AI chips & memory Thesis: Yield-analytics software re-rated on a real margin step — operating margin ~18%→25%, Platform revenue +36% YoY (Q1 reported 2026-05-07) — but the ~+280% run peaked at $69.05 on 2026-07-02 and flushed 11.5% intraday; the name is now digesting near the top of its target band into the binary 2026-08-05 Q2 print. Story intact; buying the highs into earnings is the risk. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 loses the rising 50-day and the prior breakout shelf, breaking the momentum structure; secondarily, a 2026-08-05 Q2 print that fails to reaffirm ~20% FY growth or prints a second straight sequential revenue decline. --- ### PI — Impinj, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Freight & logistics, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Post-correction RAIN RFID recovery has extended to $138.37 (2026-07-17), holding the reclaimed $128 April gap-fill and pressing the $144.57 post-earnings high — but the entire near-term read is the 2026-07-29 Q2 print (guide $103–106M, EPS $0.77–0.82), roughly eight sessions out. Recovery into a binary, not a confirmed breakout. Kill line: A weekly close below $128 forfeits the reclaimed April gap-fill and re-opens the round-trip toward the 2026-06-05 low of $120.93; secondary break: Q2 revenue printing under the $103M guide floor, or a Q3 guide below the ~$100M implied run-rate, at the 2026-07-29 report. --- ### PII — Polaris Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PII/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The re-rating leg is gone and the drift continued: PII closed 2026-09-04 at $62.52 with RSI(14) at 26.2, just above the $62 weekly-close line, after the 2026-08-21 loss of the $66.06 June shelf. What is left is an earnings-floor argument (FY26 operational adjusted EPS $2.05–$2.15) trading under the $68.00 consensus mark, with nothing company-dated before the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $62 ends the residual earnings-floor argument and extends the move past any retest of the broken $66.06 June shelf. Secondary: the ~2026-10-27 Q3 print cutting FY26 operational adjusted EPS below $2.05, or North American retail turning negative YoY after +4% in Q2. --- ### PKOH — Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PKOH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Industrial power & grid, Cyclical industrials, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise leg is intact on the numbers and stalled on price: $45.76 on 2026-08-28 against the $52.51 high of 2026-08-07, RSI(14) down to 41.1 from 61.4 a week earlier, and two officers each selling 12,000 shares on 2026-08-12 at $48.00–$50.14 into the post-print strength. With no company-dated event before the Q3 print in November, this is a maturing narrative resting on a one-week shelf just above $45. Kill line: A weekly close below $45 surrenders the 2026-08-05 guidance-raise re-rating and the shelf built by the $45.70 and $45.76 closes; secondary break is Engineered Products equipment backlog failing to extend past $252M at the Q3 print, estimated for ~2026-11-11. --- ### PLAY — Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Turnaround narrative dead since the 2026-06-15 comp miss (-5.4%, EPS $0.16 vs ~$0.598); the stock printed a fresh low at $8.72 on 2026-09-04, breaking the $9.40 July floor. The company confirmed Q2 FY2026 results for 2026-09-14 after the close — first comp number under CEO Darin Harper, only read on World Cup activations, against an unrevised $17 consensus target. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.72 — under the 2026-09-04 close that already broke the $9.40 July floor — confirms no base formed ahead of the print; secondary, a 2026-09-14 Q2 release with comparable sales still negative or the "positive comps for the remainder of FY2026" language dropped. --- ### PLTK — Playtika Holding Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLTK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The control-premium leg is dead: the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $2.20 took out the $2.37 level published 2026-08-23, and the strategic review has run five months with no disclosure. What is left is a refinancing stub — $800M of NDRC-cleared bond capacity against a March 2027 revolver expiry — with RSI(14) repaired from 12.9 to 45.2 on no visible bid and nothing company-dated before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.05, under the 2026-09-04 close of $2.20, would show the RSI repair since 2026-08-21 produced no base and the markdown is still extending; the secondary condition is 2026-10-06 passing with no Special Committee disclosure. --- ### PLUG — Plug Power, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PLUG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-26 Themes: Solar & clean energy, Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The +475% hydrogen-comeback squeeze has broken: the $3.12 Q1 gap and the 50-day both failed, price is ~$2.17 (-20% in 30d), and Susquehanna cut its target $3.75 → $2.50 on 2026-07-10. The June 30 NY Gateway close resolved as a restructure into staged payments, not a clean $142M event. What's left is a serial diluter selling grid interconnects for cash — no trend entry here. Kill line: A daily close below $2.00 confirms the post-squeeze breakdown and opens the $1.65 Morgan Stanley target zone; secondarily, the Graham, Texas $76.5M sale failing to close on or about 2026-07-31 re-centers the cash-burn/going-concern frame. --- ### POWI — Power Integrations, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/POWI/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-15 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The 800VDC AI-power re-rate has cracked. POWI lost the $74–78 May breakout shelf in a -20% week to $70.45 (2026-07-17) and now sits below the $76.20 average target for the first time since spring. The GaN cohort broke with it — NVTS is -41% in a month on a Wolfspeed patent suit and ON Semi's GaNEXUS entry. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print is where narrative has to convert into disclosed data-center dollars. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 — the July swing low and the pre-breakout base — completes the round-trip of the entire 800VDC re-rate and ends the 2026 uptrend. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 Q2 print passing without a named AI data-center design win or quantified bookings, or the GaN cohort (NVTS, ON, MPWR) printing fresh lows together. --- ### PRLD — Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PRLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Value still hangs on one counterparty decision: Incyte's $100M exercise fee on PRT12396, with the option window running to February 2027. Nothing company-dated has printed since the 2026-08-11 Q2 release and the next 30 days are empty, while RSI(14) cooled from 58.1 on 2026-08-28 to 47.2 on 2026-09-04 on a flat tape — a maturing narrative marking time until a decision it does not control. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.75 marks the post-2026-07-28 Incyte repricing as unwinding rather than consolidating; secondarily, Incyte presenting its next-generation JAK2V617F preclinical data as the go-forward internal asset, or the February 2027 option window passing with no exercise announcement. --- ### PSQL — Pasqal Holding SA URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PSQL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Quantum computing, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Newly listed neutral-atom quantum pure-play: the 2026-08-27 de-SPAC left ~$360M cash against €16.5M of 2025 commercial revenue, and the 2026-08-28 debut close of $19.11 has round-tripped to $7.96 on 2026-09-04. Attention is fresh — KACST deal 2026-08-31, zero analyst coverage — but no base has formed and no company-dated catalyst sits inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.00 confirms the post-listing unwind carried through the $10.00 merger reference with no stabilisation bid; secondarily, a first public financial report showing booked-and-awarded business below the >€66M cited as of March 2026. --- ### PVH — PVH Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PVH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The $75 shelf is gone: PVH closed the week at $74.33 on 2026-09-04 after a Q2 print whose $3.70 adjusted EPS carried roughly $1.80 of tariff refunds, a $439M goodwill impairment, revenue down 3%, EMEA down 6%, and a Q3 guide of $2.50–$2.65 against $2.99 consensus. With zero buyback executed in the first six months and no company-dated catalyst inside 30 days, the reset leg now rests on a Q4-loaded full-year range. Kill line: A weekly close below $71 loses the June 2026 gap base and ends the reset frame; secondary, the ~2026-12-02 Q3 print cutting the FY26 adjusted EPS range below $11.80, or the Q3 10-Q showing repurchases still far short of the $300M full-year commitment. --- ### QDEL — QuidelOrtho Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QDEL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Semi foundry & equipment, Crypto exchanges & financials Thesis: Deal leg is dead and still unresolved: the 2026-06-29 rumor gap was fully retraced by the $13.75 close of 2026-08-10, and the August drift to $14.74 has round-tripped to $13.97 on 2026-09-04 with no company disclosure in between. An unsigned ~$1.5B point-of-care sale remains the only lever on 4.3x net leverage, and no company-dated catalyst falls inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $13.75 gives back the entire 2026-06-29 deal-rumor gap and restores the pre-rumor downtrend, with the $9.92 52-week low as the next reference. Secondary: reporting that the point-of-care sale process has lapsed, or an equity takedown off the 1,000,000-share shelf filed 2026-07-17. --- ### QRVO — Qorvo, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QRVO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Qorvo trades as a fixed-ratio merger spread: 0.960 SWKS plus $32.50 cash. Skyworks' $74.02 close on 2026-09-04 implies $103.56 against Qorvo's $102.84 — about 0.70% gross, the thinnest of this coverage, after the acquirer rallied 12.5% in a week. The completion story is saturated: both legs trade above the ~2026-07-29 sell-side targets and SAMR still carries no announced decision date. Kill line: A weekly close below $95 gives back the entire early-September advance and implies either Skyworks near $65.85 at an unchanged spread or a spread widening past $8.50 with Skyworks unchanged; secondary confirmation if an 8-K discloses withdrawal and refiling of the China notification or Skyworks reverts to early-2027 close language. --- ### QUIK — QuickLogic Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QUIK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: AI chips & memory, Defense & aerospace, Quantum computing Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The eFPGA/defense royalty squeeze has fully unwound: QUIK is ~$13, roughly 47% below the $24.33 June high, and the $18 shelf broke exactly as the Russell inclusion passed. July's post-quantum IP announcement drew no bid — good news into no demand. Broken tape; the read now hinges on the ~2026-08-11 Q2 print, not the story. Kill line: A daily close below $11.50 confirms the post-index unwind is extending and opens the $9–10 zone; secondary break: Q2 revenue on the ~2026-08-11 print landing under the $5.4M low end of the $6M ±10% guide, or another equity raise disclosed alongside it. --- ### QURE — uniQure N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/QURE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-27 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: FDA's 2026-06-17 reversal put AMT-130 on an accelerated-approval path with a Q3 2026 BLA — the narrative is genuinely repaired, but the move is spent: $40.25 (7/17) sits below the $45.50 June offering price with the CEO selling into it on 7/02. Next leg needs a dated filing headline, not another upgrade. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 (surrenders the rising 50-DMA and the pre-U-turn consolidation shelf); secondarily, the AMT-130 BLA slipping out of Q3 2026 or the confirmatory study reverting to a sham-surgery control. --- ### RARE — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RARE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-01 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-19 Thesis: The +50% June reset rally round-tripped from ~$33.46 to $28.62 (2026-07-21), parking price back on the breakout shelf ahead of two binary FDA decisions: DTX401 (GSD Ia) PDUFA Aug 23 and UX111 (Sanfilippo A) PDUFA Sep 19. The July 30 Q2 print is a near-term event, but the paired PDUFAs are the trade — a coin-flip on support, not accelerating momentum. Kill line: A weekly close below $28 breaks the June gene-therapy-reset breakout shelf and returns price toward the low-$20s post-setrusumab base; independently, a complete response letter or an action-date delay on either DTX401 (PDUFA 2026-08-23) or UX111 (PDUFA 2026-09-19) ends the thesis. --- ### RBLX — Roblox Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RBLX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Critical materials & rare earths Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Broken growth compounder: the age-verification rollout throttled DAUs and forced FY26 bookings guidance down to +8-12%; stock is -66% from its $150 high and below the 200-day. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — it needs a DAU inflection to confirm a bottom, else the downtrend resumes. Kill line: A daily close below $46 loses the post-Q1 basing shelf and the 50-day, confirming a resumed downtrend toward the $40.15 low; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print with DAUs still contracting and no reaffirmed Q3 re-acceleration is the fundamental break. --- ### REAL — The RealReal, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/REAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: The $10.00 line published as the break condition fired: a 2026-09-04 weekly close at $9.86 with RSI(14) 30.9 gives back the entire 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise (record GMV $617M, +22%; FY guide lifted to $2.535–2.565B). What is left is a de-rated compounder with no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-09 Q3 print and only the $8.02 52-week low as structure beneath it. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.02 loses the 52-week low and the last structural reference under the 2026 range; secondary condition is the ~2026-11-09 Q3 print landing GMV under the $610M low end of guide, or the FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA range of $66–69M being cut. --- ### REAX — The Real Brokerage, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/REAX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, Semi foundry & equipment Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The binary resolved — the RE/MAX combination closed 2026-08-24 — and the deal move unwound with it: RSI(14) went from 88.0 on 2026-08-21 to 38.0 at the 2026-09-04 close of $18.67, under the mechanically restated $19.50 July shelf. What remains is a $450M / 25-million-share repurchase authorization, $550M of floating-rate term debt, and no company-dated evidence until the November Q3 call. Kill line: A weekly close below $18.00, where the repurchase authorization's 25-million-share cap binds ahead of its $450M cap; the restated $19.50 July shelf already gave way on the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $18.67. A second break is the November Q3 report showing no shares retired under the 2026-08-24 authorization. --- ### RFAI — RF Acquisition Corp II URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RFAI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Squeeze & momentum setups, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The float-squeeze leg has already printed and is now decaying: 98.95% preliminary redemptions left almost no tradable stock into the 2026-08-19 approval, RFAI peaked at a $58.00 close on 2026-08-21 and closed $41.50 on 2026-09-04. Sixteen days past the vote EDGAR still shows no consummation report, leaving a saturated story with no announced closing date and no new bid behind it. Kill line: A daily close below $35 forfeits the entire 2026-08-21 squeeze-session range (low $35.22), leaving no filed structure between the market price and the $11.13 trust redemption value; secondarily, an 8-K reporting closing and conversion to the NYB ticker retires the float mechanic being priced. --- ### RH URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-21 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Squeeze leg now ratified by the sell side — TD Cowen $220 (2026-08-08) and Wells Fargo $225 (2026-08-11) against B of A's reinstated Underperform $156 (2026-08-03) — and it resolves into the 2026-09-10 Q2 print with ~56.7% of float still short but shares short already falling. The 2026-08-14 close of $181.76 sits above the $175 20-analyst consensus average. maturing, and the print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $155 forfeits the August re-rating leg and puts price back under both Goldman's $155 and B of A's $156 targets; a Q2 miss or FY guide-down at the 2026-09-10 print, or shares short falling below 5.0M, confirms the squeeze fuel is spent. --- ### RHI — Robert Half Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RHI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-14 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-23 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: White-collar staffing in secular decline: Q2 EPS collapsed to $0.26 (2026-07-23) as AI automation and a frozen hiring market gut permanent-placement demand. The >5% dividend yield reads as a value-trap signal rather than a floor. No accelerating long narrative; a cyclical bounce needs labor data to turn first. Kill line: A weekly close below $36 confirms the secular staffing downtrend and kills any cyclical-bounce thesis, opening a slide toward Goldman's $29 Sell target; a dividend cut would seal the value-trap read. --- ### RLAY — Relay Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The $26–$31 sell-side band is the bull case, but nothing clinical is dated before the year-end ReDiscover-2 enrollment update. Kill line: A weekly close below $17.50 breaks the $17.33 shelf that has floored the range since June and ends the coverage-driven leg; secondary breaks are meaningful ATM issuance near $19–$20 disclosed at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 filing, or the year-end ReDiscover-2 enrollment update arriving unquantified. --- ### RLMD — Relmada Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RLMD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The re-rate narrative failed: the $4.75 March PIPE strike broke on the 2026-08-21 weekly close and the tape kept eroding to $4.43 on 2026-09-04, with no dated clinical event before the year-end 2026 IND. What is left is $217.7M of cash at 2026-06-30 and a 1H 2027 Phase 3 readout, with the $4.25 shelf published on 2026-08-23 roughly 4% away and still unbroken. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.25 — the shelf published 2026-08-23, roughly 4% under the 2026-09-04 close of $4.43 and about 10% under the March PIPE issue price that already failed on 2026-08-21. Secondary: no NDV-01 IND submission announced by 2026-12-31, which pushes first Phase 3 data past the guided 1H 2027. --- ### RMBS — Rambus Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RMBS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-24 Themes: AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Memory theme is ripping — Micron +68% YTD with HBM sold out through 2027 — but Rambus has decoupled, down ~42% from its 2026-06-03 high of $174.10 to $101.44 while the cycle proxy sits near records. Interface content is a DIMM-unit story, not a DRAM-price story, and the 2026-07-27 Q2 print is the binary that resolves which. Kill line: A weekly close below $95 breaks the July shelf and the 200-day, confirming the de-rating is a unit-volume problem rather than a momentum unwind; secondary: Q2 product revenue printing under the $95M guide floor on 2026-07-27, or a 2H26 guide that fails to raise on the MRDIMM/SOCAMM2 ramp. --- ### RPAY — Repay Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RPAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: The Visa-headline pop has round-tripped — $4.01 on 2026-08-21 back to $3.88 on 2026-09-04 — while the deal file stayed silent: the only company items since are an 2026-08-26 NxtEdge AP partnership and a 2026-09-03 IR hire, leaving Forager's rejected $5.25 cash proposal roughly 26% above the tape, a maturing activist narrative and no dated catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.45 erases the June revised-bid re-rating and puts price under the entire post-Q2 shelf. Secondarily, a Forager 13D/A withdrawing the $5.25 proposal or converting to Schedule 13G removes the bid anchor the discount is quoted from. --- ### RZLT — Rezolute, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/RZLT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Rare disease & gene therapy Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The August screener bid fully round-tripped: $5.09 on 2026-08-21 to $4.58 on 2026-09-04, back under the $4.60/$4.61 summer shelf, with no clinical news since 2026-06-17. The registrational upLIFT topline is still guided only to "2H-2026" and still undated; the only dated events are three investor conferences between 09-09 and 09-16, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst until the FY2026 report. Kill line: A weekly close below $4.00 closes the 2026-06-02 interim gap and reads as the market pricing the 6-of-8 upLIFT interim at zero. Secondary: the FY2026 report (~2026-09-17 est.) passing without narrowing the "second half of 2026" topline guide, or an equity takedown priced into the September conference window. --- ### S — SentinelOne, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/S/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The 2026-08-27 binary resolved against the profit line: Q2 revenue $292M (+21%) beat and FY revenue guidance rose to $1.202–1.207B, but FY adjusted EPS was cut to $0.30–0.32 from $0.32–0.38, and price went $21.19 (08-21) → $19.88 (09-04) straight through twelve target raises. AI-security ARR tripling year over year is the remaining leg, with the $19.50 July shelf 38 cents below the last close and no company-dated number until the December print. Kill line: A weekly close below $19.50 loses the July shelf and returns price to the pre-June $18–21 range, ending the agentic-security leg. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Goldman Communacopia appearance passing with the AI-security attach still unquantified in dollars and no new target above $28. --- ### SABR — Sabre Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SABR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: Travel & leisure, AI enterprise software, Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: June's +20% deleveraging bounce has fully round-tripped: $1.99 (6/26) back to $1.73 (7/17), now under the 50-day near $1.79 after failing exactly at the $1.99 consensus PT. Balance sheet is fixed, narrative is not accelerating, and a >6x-levered equity stub goes into the 2026-08-06 Q2 print as a binary. The setup does not clear until price reclaims $1.99 or earnings clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.55 breaks the base that held the 6/05 $1.66 low and reopens $1.40, then the 200-day near $1.23; secondarily, an FY2026 EBITDA guidance cut or air-distribution booking decline at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print confirms the $1.50 bear case. --- ### SAH — Sonic Automotive, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-30 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, EV & autonomous mobility Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: GPU-normalization narrative broke at the 2026-07-30 print: revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus, but adjusted EPS fell 17% YoY, franchised segment income −23%, and EchoPark FY26 GPU guidance was cut ~$300 at the midpoint. Shares round-tripped the entire June–July advance to −26.8% off the $112.66 high. Nothing company-specific resolves before Q3 (~2026-10-22, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $78 breaks the pre-advance shelf the June–July move launched from and turns the round-trip into a fresh downtrend leg; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-22, est.) showing consolidated new-vehicle GPU under the $2,850–$3,000 FY26 band. --- ### SAIL — SailPoint, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SAIL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-07-17 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: Agentic-identity story intact and the post-earnings flush is basing: SAIL clawed from a $13.33 low (6/22) back to $15.68 (7/17), a higher low off the $10.30 bottom. Growth decelerated (ARR +26% vs +30%) and guidance was only affirmed, so the multiple won't re-expand until agentic demand converts to reported ARR — Rosenblatt's 7/8 Neutral $16 says prove it. Constructive on a low-$16s (200-day) reclaim; Q2 print (~early Sept) is the proof-point. Kill line: A weekly close below $13 breaks the June higher-low base and reopens the $10.30 52-week low; secondary: a Q2 FY27 print (~early Sept) with SaaS ARR growth under the mid-30s% or net revenue retention slipping below 110%. --- ### SANA — Sana Biotechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-12 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Type-1-diabetes functional-cure narrative: UP421's no-immunosuppression islet transplant is still producing insulin at 14 months (n=1), de-risking SC451's IND guided "as early as 2026." Rare-disease cell therapy is accelerating, but the tape is basing near 52-week lows — a probe against binary data and dilution risk, not a momentum chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.20 fails the base off the $2.61 52-week low and points price back at the lows; secondarily, a dilutive equity raise priced well below market or SC451's IND slipping out of 2026. --- ### SANM — Sanmina Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SANM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-09-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-29 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-24 Thesis: The prior break level gave way: the 2026-08-21 weekly close at $188.89 retraced the entire June re-rate. FQ3 on 2026-07-27 beat and raised — $3.46B revenue, +69.7% YoY, FY26 EPS guide lifted to $11.90–12.20 — and the tape answered with a >20% single-session drop. The price leg is broken while the P&L compounds, and no company-dated event exists until the FQ4 print expected in early November. Kill line: A weekly close below $180 says the post-2026-07-28 distribution is still running rather than basing; confirmed on the fundamentals by FQ4 revenue printing under the $3.3B guide floor at the ~2026-11-02 report, an FQ4 non-GAAP operating margin below the 7.5% guide floor, or an FY2027 revenue frame introduced below the reiterated $16B+. --- ### SDGR — Schrodinger, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SDGR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Precision biotech & therapeutics, AI enterprise software Thesis: Agentic-AI software leg: the 2026-08-05 Bristol Myers Squibb agreement to deploy Bunsen at scale landed with a double beat (Q2 revenue $58.889M vs $47.228M consensus) and a raised drug-discovery guide of $65–75M. ACV grew 27% while reported software revenue fell ~10%, and the sell-side finished repricing by 2026-08-18, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $18 (puts the tape under the $19–$20 August sell-side target cluster and the post-2026-08-05 structure); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with software revenue down YoY again and trailing ACV growth under the guided 10–15%. --- ### SEER — Seer, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SEER/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-09-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-03 Themes: M&A & special situations, Medtech & diagnostics, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The take-private ladder has stalled into a stand-off: the $2.55 Radoff-JEC bid lapsed unanswered on 2026-08-10, and the group's 2026-08-13 release demanding the board disclose an evaluation timeline has drawn no company reply through the 2026-08-21 close of $2.03. Q2 missed both lines and cash fell to $209.5M. No company-dated catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $1.95 gives back the 2026-07-06 gap shelf; compounded if a further 30 days pass from the 2026-08-13 demand letter with no 8-K or press release disclosing an evaluation timeline, a Special Committee counter, or a definitive agreement. --- ### SFIX — Stitch Fix, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SFIX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-23 Thesis: The $3.50 shelf broke: closes of $3.58 (2026-07-24) and $3.59 (2026-08-14) gave way to $3.15 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 18.6, retracing the entire 2026-06-10 beat-and-raise and leaving the $2.95 52-week low as the next reference. The income-statement turnaround is unresolved until the Q4/FY26 full-year print, est. ~2026-09-23, which also carries initial FY27 guidance. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.95 takes out the 52-week low and leaves no chart reference beneath it; secondarily, a Q4/FY26 print (~2026-09-23 est.) with revenue under the $322M guide floor or active clients back below 2.309M. --- ### SG — Sweetgreen, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The turnaround guide was retracted on 2026-08-06 and no desk has re-rated since DA Davidson's 2026-08-10 cut to $5.50. What has carried the shares to $6.84 on 2026-09-04 is menu press — Fall Harvest returned nationwide 09-04 — while short interest rose to 23.85M shares, 23.17% of float. No company P&L event exists before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, leaving a dead narrative priced on positioning. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 hands back the entire post-guide-down recovery leg and re-opens the 2026-08-13 area near $5.82. Secondarily, the ~2026-09-10 and ~2026-09-25 short-interest publications both passing without price clearing the $7.40 pre-print shelf leaves no dated company event before the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print. --- ### SHOO — Steven Madden, Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SHOO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Tariff-recovery leg has stalled into a $39.71–$47.11 range with insiders selling every rally and zero buys; the whole story now hinges on the confirmed 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Consensus targets sit at or below spot ($43.75, 07-16), adjusted EPS is declining, and reported growth remains Kurt Geiger-fed. Binary event, no discount. Kill line: A weekly close below $39 loses the shelf that has held since the spring breakout and confirms the tariff-recovery leg is over; secondarily, the 2026-07-30 Q2 print cutting the $2.00–$2.10 FY26 adjusted-EPS guide, or organic ex-Kurt-Geiger DTC turning negative. --- ### SID — Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (CSN) URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SID/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Cyclical industrials Thesis: New-CEO deleveraging story: Fabio Schvartsman replaced 24-year CEO Benjamin Steinbruch on 2026-09-03 and the ADR ran from $1.13 (09-01) to $1.22 (09-04) with RSI at 79.2, while R$42.1bn net debt and 3.49x leverage are untouched until a cement divestment or the early-November Q3 print gives the re-rating something dated to price. --- ### SITM — SiTime Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SITM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical, AI chips & memory, Semi foundry & equipment, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels story is fundamentally intact — Q1 datacenter revenue +158% YoY to 67% of sales, Renesas timing deal closed July 1 — but the momentum leg has broken: ~$550 on July 18 is ~39% off the May 11 all-time-high close of $901.48, through the $560 shelf, with 31 insider sales and zero buys in six months. Aug 5 print is the binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $480 round-trips the entire post-Q1 datacenter re-rate back to the pre-print base and confirms the AI-timing multiple is unwinding rather than consolidating; secondary: Q2 revenue on Aug 5 below the $140M guide floor, a sequential CED/datacenter decline, or FY growth guidance cut from the ≥80% bar. --- ### SKWD — Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SKWD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-print fade extends: the 2026-08-04 beat (op EPS $1.30 vs $1.17, 89.5% combined, 19% operating ROE) and four target raises to $65–$75 have been met by a lower tape — $58.29 on 2026-08-28, 11.2% under the $65.63 high, RSI 36.5 versus 45.3 two weeks earlier. Fundamentals still compound against the reaffirmed $4.80–$5.00 guide while the bid thins, leaving a maturing narrative whose only dated management update before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print is the 2026-09-10 KBW conference. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 puts price back inside the June low-$50s breakout shelf and ends the post-breakout leg; secondary condition is the 2026-09-10 KBW appearance and the hurricane-season peak passing with no bid returning and price still under the mid-$60s into the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### SLS — SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SLS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oncology & immunology, Binary-catalyst biotech, Squeeze & momentum setups, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-25 Thesis: Borrowed sector re-rate has cooled: SLS closed $13.86 on 2026-09-04, 10.3% under the 2026-08-21 high of $15.46, RSI back to 54.1, while REGAL's last published count is still 78 of 80 from 2026-05-11 and BMF Capital's 2026-08-31 short report puts $3.50 on the other side. The name is now an undated binary with a maturing narrative and no company-dated catalyst before the 2026-09-25 AACR posters. Kill line: A weekly close below $12.00 gives back the entire post-INTerpath-001 advance and returns price to the July range, under the 2026-08-14 pre-spike close of $12.78; secondarily, the 2026-09-25 AACR posters and both September FINRA short-interest reports passing with REGAL's event count still undisclosed. --- ### SMTC — Semtech Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SMTC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-09-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Networking & optical Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: The mix-purification leg has lost its price leg: the August bounce round-tripped from a $140.35 close on 2026-08-14 to $124.09 on 2026-08-21, under the 2026-07-17 flush close. The binary moved forward — Q2 FY27 prints 2026-08-25 after the close, with consensus ($328.4M / $0.62) sitting exactly on the guide, so the October outlook carries the move. Kill line: A weekly close below $118 confirms the July $124–125 closing floor failed rather than held, leaving the June–August range as distribution. Secondary: a 2026-08-25 Q2 FY27 print under the $323–333M guide, or an October-quarter guide below the ~$360M the sell-side models. --- ### SNDR — Schneider National, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SNDR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials, Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: The 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $0.29 vs $0.23 consensus; FY26 guide lifted to $0.90–$1.10) has been fully given back — the 2026-08-28 close of $34.44 is 10.9% under the 2026-06-08 high and sits 1.3% above the $34 shelf. The supply-attrition leg is thinning: SONAR rejections 13.57% on 2026-08-25 versus a ~17.5% July peak, July Class 8 net orders +71% YoY, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the late-October print. Kill line: A weekly close below $34 loses the May breakout shelf that framed the 2026-07-02 pullback; secondary confirmation: SONAR tender rejections under ~10% for several consecutive weeks from 13.57% (2026-08-25), or a Q3 print (~2026-10-29 est.) that trims the $0.90–$1.10 FY26 adjusted-EPS range. --- ### SPRB — Spruce Biosciences, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPRB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Rare disease & gene therapy Thesis: Ultra-rare ERT filing story cooling: after the 2026-08-24 pre-BLA clearance the news flow stopped, and the shares drifted from the 2026-08-28 close of $60.78 to $57.93 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) back to 58.1 from 77.6. Nothing company-dated lands inside 30 days, and the guided Q4 2026 BLA — a window already moved once from Q1 2026 — is the entire information source, leaving a maturing narrative with no near-term test. Kill line: A weekly close below $50 surrenders the whole three-month, +17.5% advance and the August pre-BLA repricing; secondarily, any company language moving the tralesinidase alfa BLA out of Q4 2026, or a discounted equity raise ahead of the filing. --- ### SPRY — ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SPRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Single-product epinephrine name whose one catalyst — a July no-prior-auth formulary add for neffy — came and went unpaid; the stock has since broken its old $6.66 52-week low to fresh lows near $6. The neffy ramp is real but the access re-rate failed to fire; broken chart, the setup does not clear ahead of the ~Aug 12 Q2 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.76 confirms a fresh 52-week-low breakdown and extends the post-catalyst downtrend; a secondary break is a Q2 print (~2026-08-12) that shows sequential neffy revenue deceleration rather than the guided H2 access-driven inflection. --- ### SRAD — Sportradar Group AG URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SRAD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Prediction markets & betting, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Scope expanded, revenue did not: the 2026-08-27 Polymarket deal widened to 20+ leagues and ~300,000 matches a year, and the 2026-08-26 Euroleague renewal runs to 2031, yet the 2026-08-28 close of $12.94 sits below the $13.82 of two weeks earlier. No euro figure is attached to prediction markets until an undated ~November Q3, leaving a saturated theme resting on a $12 shelf now roughly 7% below the last close. Kill line: A weekly close below $12 ends the post-drawdown range prior coverage identified as the floor and clears the path to the 52-week low; a Q3 report that again omits a euro figure for prediction-market revenue and an audited legal-versus-illegal operator split confirms it. --- ### STAA — STAAR Surgical Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STAA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The re-rating leg failed and has not been re-bid: after the 2026-08-21 weekly close at $23.14 broke the $23.50 shelf, ten sessions produced only $23.47 on 2026-09-04 and a 2026-09-02 CTO appointment the tape ignored. What is left is a $181.5M-cash single-product medtech with an expired standstill, a dead narrative and no company-dated catalyst before the estimated 2026-10-07 preliminary-sales window. Kill line: A weekly close below $22.00 turns the 2026-08-21 break of $23.50 into trend continuation and reopens the range toward the $15.59 destocking low; secondary, the estimated 2026-10-07 preliminary-sales window passing with no pre-release pushes the first post-peak China datapoint out to the ~2026-11-04 print. --- ### STM — STMicroelectronics N.V. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The June AI-data-center re-rating has failed its retest: $62.06 on 2026-07-17 is -22% from the 2026-06-22 high of $79.82 and back under the early-June breakout base, with a $1.5B convertible overhang and a 7% selloff that ignored a BofA upgrade to $100. The 2026-07-23 Q2 print is now the whole trade — binary, three trading days out. Kill line: A weekly close below $58 takes out the pre-breakout May shelf and confirms the June data-center re-rating as a failed breakout; secondary confirmation if the 2026-07-23 Q2 print lands revenue under the $3.45B guide midpoint, book-to-bill below 1.0, or walks back the ~$1B 2026 data-center target. --- ### STRL — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: The published $500 break condition fired: last close $486.49 on 2026-09-04, 51.0% under the 2026-06-04 high, RSI(14) 23.1, and no analyst action at all since D.A. Davidson's $700 initiation on 2026-08-24. Q2 (2026-08-03) delivered revenue $1,168.2M (+90% YoY) and a raised $19.70–20.30 adjusted EPS guide, so what is repricing is the multiple; the first dated markers are conference appearances on 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-24, not a print. Kill line: A weekly close below $465 puts price beneath the 2026-09-04 session low of $465.06 and confirms no base has formed after the $500 and $550 shelves failed. Secondary: an FY26 adjusted EPS guide cut beneath $19.70, or combined backlog printing under $5.62B, at the ~2026-11-02 Q3 report. --- ### STRO — Sutro Biopharma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STRO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Single-asset binary now inside its own catalyst window: the STRO-004 (DAR8 Tissue Factor exatecan ADC) Phase 1 readout was guided "mid-2026" and that window is expiring undated. Price has gone flat at ~$29.7 for four weeks after the June bounce off ~$25 — a coiled wait, not an accelerating leg, with a $100M ATM armed over the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $27 forfeits the June-July consolidation shelf and the recovery base built off the ~$25 low; secondarily, a STRO-004 Phase 1 print showing dose-limiting toxicities or zero objective responses, or an ATM-funded equity raise executed ahead of the data. --- ### STUB — StubHub Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STUB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Travel & leisure Next catalyst: 2026-08-31 Thesis: June's busted-IPO recovery leg has fully reversed. D.C.'s RESALE Act (10% resale-markup cap, effective 2027-01-01) plus a Texas AG probe into undelivered World Cup tickets broke the experience-economy narrative; at ~$8.60 STUB trades below its lowest analyst target ($9) with the Aug 12 Q2 print the next binary. No clean long — the setup does not clear. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.40 confirms the fully-retraced June–July recovery and opens a retest of the $5.74 52-week low; contagion of the D.C. RESALE Act markup cap (effective 2027-01-01) into larger states, or an adverse Texas AG finding, would deepen the break. --- ### SUPV — Grupo Supervielle S.A. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SUPV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Emerging markets Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Q2 beat, tape ignored it: adjusted EPS $0.29 vs $0.13 consensus on 2026-08-10, NIM +253bps to 20.3% — yet SUPV closed $8.05 on 2026-08-14 at RSI 24, with bank ADRs leading the Merval lower and country risk back to 479bps. The company catalyst has passed; what is left is the peso band and the 2026-08-26 legislative session. Kill line: A weekly close below $7.50 breaks the post-midterm shelf that has held since 2025-10-27 and unwinds the reform re-rating; secondary: the peso fixing printing through 1,500/USD, or the 2026-08-26 legislative session passing with country risk still above ~450bps. --- ### SVV — Savers Value Village, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SVV/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Busted-IPO thrift retailer's June recovery has stalled and rolled back toward its ~$9 base as the June 27 Russell-deletion passive-bid loss bites; the July 30 Q2 print is now an imminent, FX-exposed binary rather than a five-weeks-away event. The trade-down narrative is maturing, not accelerating — a name whose setup does not clear ahead of the print, not a momentum leg to chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.90 breaks the May–June recovery base (also forfeiting the 200-day near $9.21) and opens a retest of the $6.91 52-week low; a Q2 comps print on July 30 under the +2.5% FY guide floor, or a cut to the FY revenue/EBITDA outlook, confirms the stall. --- ### SWVL — Swvl Holdings Corp Class A URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SWVL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: EV & autonomous mobility, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Post-SPAC MENA transit operator still extending on the ~$14.5M Sawiris-backed Coefficient round (2026-08-25/26): the 2026-09-04 close was $4.93 against a $1.446 issue price, with a new 52-week high of $5.52 and RSI(14) at 83.0. The 2026-09-01 Zelo working-capital facility added a headline but no disclosed size, leaving the ~2026-09-08 results date as the first operating test of a re-rating built on financing news. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.12 unwinds the entire post-financing continuation leg back to the 2026-08-28 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 results date passing with revenue growth well below the Q1 2026 +68% YoY pace, or with still no named US contract. --- ### SXC — Suncoke Energy Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/SXC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-01 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-24 Themes: Cyclical industrials, Critical materials & rare earths, Freight & logistics Thesis: Coal-policy sympathy trade is fully dead: SXC has gone nowhere for three weeks, $8.39 on 2026-06-27 to $8.37 on 2026-07-17, pinned to the $8 shelf with no narrative velocity. The only live variable is the Q2 print, pulled forward to 2026-07-30 pre-market (announced 2026-07-16) from the prior ~08-04 estimate. Binary, not a momentum setup. Kill line: A daily close below $7.90 breaks the ~$8 breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA in one move, confirming the June policy spike round-tripped into a full fade; a 2026-07-30 Q2 print that cuts or hedges the $230–250M FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide is the secondary condition that turns the base into a downtrend. --- ### TAL — TAL Education Group URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-09-04 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-31 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Cyclical industrials, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Legacy-pivot re-rating still intact on fundamentals — Q1 FY2027 revenue +31.9% to $758.4M with selling and marketing down 5% — but the post-print impulse has largely round-tripped: $12.16 on 2026-08-11 to $11.32 on 2026-08-21, RSI 37.2, and the $11.00 gap shelf now under 3% below. No company-dated resolver until Q2 (~2026-10-29, est.). Kill line: A weekly close below $11.00 completes the round-trip of the 2026-07-30 post-print gap and ends this leg; secondarily, a Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing selling and marketing expense growing faster than revenue, or gross margin below the 54.9% year-ago level. --- ### TASK — TaskUs, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TASK/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-07-29 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Physical AI & robotics, Cyclical industrials Thesis: Mix-shift re-rating: AI Services hit $66.1M (+25.8%) in Q2 CY2026 on 2026-08-05 — seventh straight quarter above 25% — and is guided above 30% YoY in Q4 on AV/robotics work, against a 25%-of-revenue Trust & Safety book the market assumes AI is automating. Beat-and-raise print, but Q3 revenue guided under consensus and no company catalyst until the ~November report. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.60 surrenders the entire post-2026-08-05 earnings advance (shares printed $6.64 after hours on the release). Secondary: a Q3 report (~2026-11-04, est.) showing AI Services growth under ~25% or the guided >30% Q4 acceleration walked back. --- ### TDOC — Teladoc Health, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TDOC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Thesis: The pivot re-rating is dead; what is left is a balance-sheet floor — $774.3M cash at 2026-06-30, an unchanged $130–170M FY free-cash-flow guide — that must hold the $6.00 shelf through an empty calendar into the unconfirmed late-October Q3 print. The 2026-08-31 appointment of Michael Grasher as CFO filled a vacant seat without producing a bid: the 2026-09-04 close of $6.28 is below the $6.50 of 2026-08-28. Kill line: A weekly close below $6.00 round-trips the entire 2026-05-28 Walmart-deal move and returns price to the pre-deal $4.40–$6 zone; secondarily, a Q3 print (~late October, date unconfirmed) with BetterHelp average paying users under Q2's 0.346M, or an FY2026 revenue range below the current $2,362–2,447M floor, would confirm the in-network transition is not stabilising. --- ### TDUP — ThredUp Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TDUP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Small-cap value rotation, Managed care & health services, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The tariff/de-minimis re-rate is fully unwound: the 2026-08-05 FY2026 cut broke the growth leg, and the $2.80 weekly shelf flagged in prior coverage went on the 2026-08-28 close of $2.72. RSI(14) 28.2 with buyers +21% YoY and $57.4M cash leaves a mechanically oversold shell of a dead narrative inside the 2025 pre-re-rate band, with no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.50 puts price under the middle of the 2025 pre-re-rate band with no 2026 shelf above it; Q3 revenue under the $87.0M low end, a third FY2026 revenue reduction, or a cut to the ~4.7% FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guide at the ~2026-11-03 print would confirm a de-rating rather than a one-quarter promotional reset. --- ### TENB — Tenable Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TENB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: The S&P SmallCap 600 bid expired on schedule — after the ~12% move on 2026-08-27 and the $37.67 close on 2026-08-28, the 2026-09-04 close of $34.25 has handed most of the index gap back, and the 2026-09-03 OpenAI CyberAgents announcement drew no replacement bid. The 2026-07-29 platform numbers stand unamended, but nothing company-dated resolves them before a Q3 print that is still unconfirmed and estimated for late October into 2026-11-04. Kill line: A weekly close below $33 completes the round-trip of the 2026-08-27 index-inclusion gap and puts the $30–$31 post-print target cluster in play. Secondary: the September availability window for Exchange Inspector passing with no shipped product or disclosed attach rate, and a Q3 print that only reiterates $1.075–1.081B. --- ### TENX — Tenax Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TENX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: Post-failure rebuild, not a rescue: the 2026-08-29 ESC late-breaker put the prespecified sub-median-6MWD subgroup (n=119) at +26.3m vs placebo (nominal p=0.0112), and Adar1 disclosed buying 1m+ shares at an average $1.77 on 2026-08-25, lifting the quote from $1.80 (08-14) to $2.13 (08-28). 31.9m shares against $118.0m of 06-30 cash is the leg; the Type C FDA step is undated, so no company catalyst falls inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.70 gives back the post-ESC move and puts the quote under the $1.77 average of the 2026-08-25 disclosed accumulation; an equity or ATM raise priced near the prevailing quote, or an FDA outcome leaving LEVEL-2 without an agreed enriched population, would confirm the break. --- ### TER — Teradyne, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TER/ Conviction: MEDIUM · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-06-18 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Physical AI & robotics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Parabolic AI-test leg broke hard: $483.84 closing ATH (2026-06-30) to $322.36 (2026-07-17), −33% in twelve sessions on a memory-glut scare, with the whole $446–$550 analyst band now stranded above spot. Company guided Q2 revenue DOWN sequentially to $1.15–1.25B. The 2026-07-28 print is the binary that decides shakeout vs. cycle top. Kill line: A weekly close below $296 breaks the 2026-07-17 flush low and confirms the AI-test de-rate is a trend change rather than a shakeout; secondary break is a Q2 print (2026-07-28) landing at or under the $1.15B low end of company guidance with no second-half raise. --- ### TGTX — TG Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TGTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-18 Themes: Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Thesis: The catalyst leg is spent; what is left is whether the $46–48 shelf holds through a two-month news vacuum into year-end subcutaneous Phase 3 topline. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 loses the June breakout-retest shelf and returns price to the pre-MG-print range near $42; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03, est.) that fails to lift the $890–905M US BRIUMVI guide or shows US net revenue below the $227.7M Q2 level. --- ### TH — Target Hospitality Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TH/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The AI-datacenter-landlord re-rate has stalled: TH peaked at $20.85 and has given back ~21% to $16.36 (2026-07-17) as TDR Capital affiliates distribute shares in-kind to partners, losing the $17 secondary clearing shelf while Oppenheimer lifted its target to $24. Backlog is real ($2B+); the tape is now supply-driven. The 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the first read on data-center revenue conversion. Kill line: A weekly close below $15 confirms the distribution leg and opens the ~$12–13 April breakout base; secondary conditions: an 8-K disclosing delay or downsizing of the North Texas or AI Infrastructure campus, or an FY2026 revenue guide cut below the $370M floor at the 2026-08-06 print. --- ### THC — Tenet Healthcare Corporation New URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/THC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Managed care & health services Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Hospital margin-expansion re-rating stalled at the 2026-08-21 high of $280.77 and gave back 5.0% into the 2026-08-28 close of $266.8, with RSI(14) cooling from 77.3 to 56.8, no confirmed new sell-side number since 2026-08-14 and no company disclosure due before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. The $262.63 August breakout shelf is now the near line, leaving a saturated narrative with one unconfirmed conference date inside 30 days. Kill line: A weekly close below $262 loses the August extension above the $262.63 prior 52-week high and returns price into the post-print range; secondary, the 2026-09-08–10 Wells Fargo healthcare conference passing with no Tenet appearance and no new target raise before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. --- ### TIC — TIC Solutions, Inc URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TIC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-21 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-12 Themes: M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: Post-merger re-rate: engineering/geospatial backlog hit a record $1.18B (+20% YoY) on 2026-08-06 while legacy inspection fell ~5.5% combined, and UBS's 2026-08-11 upgrade (Buy, PT $12.50 from $11.00) prices an inflection that Q2's +2.5% organic growth has not yet shown. RSI 79.5 at the 2026-08-14 close of $9.85, with no company catalyst inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $9.00 erases most of the post-2026-08-06 advance. Secondary: Inspection & Mitigation failing to return to growth at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05 est.) after a ~5.5% combined decline in Q2, or FY2026 revenue tracking under the $2.15B guide low end. --- ### TLN — Talen Energy Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-21 Themes: Industrial power & grid, AI datacenter infrastructure, Nuclear & uranium Thesis: Contracted-floor re-rating has stopped paying: the 2026-08-05 Q2 raised FY26 Adj EBITDA guidance to $2,025–2,225M and PJM's 2028/29 auction cleared >10 GW at the $325/MW-day cap, yet the stock closed $347.71 on 2026-08-07, 22% below the $445.84 high, with the July $365 shelf broken. Fundamentals improving into a thin bid; single-name narrative reads saturated. Kill line: A weekly close below $325 confirms the post-print lower-low sequence and extends the drawdown past 27% from the $445.84 52-week high; secondary: no confirmation of the AWS front-of-the-meter reconfiguration, or FY26 guidance walked back below the $2,025M floor, at the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.). --- ### TLRY — Tilray Brands, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TLRY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-06-25 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-23 Themes: Cannabis reclassification, Consumer discretionary rotation Thesis: Reform binary spent without resolving: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with only a 2026-08-17 briefing deadline and no ALJ timeline, so Schedule III is now an open-ended administrative process. TLRY printed a fresh 52-week low of $4.20 on 2026-07-08 during the hearing itself and sits below the 200-day into Q4 earnings 2026-07-28. Broken structure, no dated catalyst. Kill line: A daily close below $4.20 breaks the 2026-07-08 52-week low and confirms the downtrend; the constructive case only re-opens on a daily close above $5.00, and separately if the Q4 print on 2026-07-28 misses the reaffirmed $62–72M FY adjusted-EBITDA band. --- ### TMC — TMC the metals company Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TMC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-07 Themes: Critical materials & rare earths, Bitcoin miners, Freight & logistics, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: The deep-sea-mining reshoring leg is broken: TMC has cut through the $3.93 prior 52-week low to a fresh $3.57 low near $3.74, roughly -67% from the $11.35 high, with no bid and no near-term catalyst. The decisive NOAA license decision is guided to end-Q1 2027; a 2026-07-31 royalty-funding deadline sits in front of it. No base, no entry. Kill line: A weekly close below $3.57 extends the new-low downtrend and keeps the name uninvestable; on the recovery side, the thesis only re-arms on a weekly close back above $5.00 (reclaiming the lost shelf) with the 2026-07-31 TMCR royalty funding closed without a large parent-level equity raise. --- ### TNDM — Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TNDM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-17 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Next catalyst: 2026-09-28 Thesis: Beaten-down insulin-pump turnaround; the whole re-rate hinges on the tubeless Mobi ("Toby") 510(k) — planned for a Q2 filing but still unconfirmed after the quarter closed 2026-06-30 — plus margins scaling toward a ~60% Q4 exit. Shares bounced off the floor to ~$17 but sell-side stays neutral (Mizuho cut to $20). The 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $14 forfeits the July recovery base and re-opens the downtrend toward the $9.98 52-week floor. Secondary: the tubeless Mobi 510(k) still unconfirmed at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print, a FY2026 sales guide cut below $1.065B, or diabetes-AID leadership staying with Insulet's Omnipod. --- ### TORO — Toro Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TORO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-10 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-28 Themes: Freight & logistics, M&A & special situations, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: Panagiotidis shipping shell (NOT lawnmower TTC) ran 1.93→8.50 on a sub-NAV/special-dividend story that is now fully paid out and closed. Six weeks of dead tape since the 2026-06-05 payout ($3.8M cash + 5,707,246 NEW shares); on a true ~34.6M share count the cap is ~$171M against a ~$78M cash pile. Screens still quote 25.61M shares and understate the cap by a third. No fresh leg. Kill line: A daily close below $4.50 breaks the post-dividend base and opens an air-pocket toward the diluted ~$2.25/share cash floor. Secondary: the ~late-Aug 2026 H1 print passing without an all-cash capital return or accretive fleet M&A confirms there is no replacement catalyst. --- ### TRIP — TripAdvisor, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TRIP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure, Cyclical industrials Thesis: The prior $10 weekly-close condition fired: the week ending 2026-08-28 closed at $9.87, through JP Morgan's 2026-08-07 Underweight target, with metasearch revenue -21% YoY. What remains is a residual-value question — $700M of contracted TheFork cash and a +3% Experiences segment against a dead activist re-rate story — and no company-dated event before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $9 — through Cantor Fitzgerald's 2026-08-07 Underweight target, the lowest published number on the street — says Experiences is being repriced alongside metasearch; secondary: the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print arriving with Hotels & Other still declining at or beyond 21% YoY. --- ### TSAT — Telesat Corporation Class A Common Shares and Class B Variable Voting Shares URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSAT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-09 Themes: Space economy, Defense & aerospace Thesis: Legacy GEO operator re-rating on a funded LEO pivot: 2026-08-04 C$2.3B, 15-year Canadian Arctic Mil-Ka contract expands Lightspeed 156→225 satellites and lifts the 2032 revenue target to US$4.9B from US$3.2B. Price closed at the 52-week high $58.92 (RSI 77.4) four sessions before the 2026-08-13 Q2 print, with US$3.2B of program capex still to be funded. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 gives back the 2026-08-04 award shelf; secondary, the 2026-08-13 Q2 print passing with an FY2026 guidance cut or an equity-linked raise to close the US$3.2B remaining Lightspeed funding requirement. --- ### TSHA — Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TSHA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Thesis: De-risking is behind the stock and the calendar in front of it is empty: after the clean 2026-06-22 data and the $6.00 June raise, no company-dated event lands before the ~November Q3 update, and the tape has drifted to a $5.60 close on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 31.3 and momentum falling three readings running. A funded wait into H1 2027, with the post-offering shelf near $5.25 now the live question. Kill line: A weekly close below $5.25 breaks the post-offering consolidation floor that has held since the 2026-06-24 pricing at $6.00, turning placement digestion into distribution. Secondary: the Q3 update (est. ~2026-11-10) moving the H1 2027 pivotal interim or Q4 2026 PPQ completion later. --- ### TXN — Texas Instruments Incorporated URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/TXN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, AI chips & memory Next catalyst: 2026-09-17 Thesis: The post-print shelf broke — $258.64 on 2026-08-28 versus $279.58 on 2026-08-14, RSI 31.1, 21.8% under the $330.59 high — and it broke in the same week ADI printed a record Q3 and raised (2026-08-19). The analog/data-center cycle is confirmed by the closest comparable while TXN de-rates on TI-specific capex and multiple concerns, leaving a saturated narrative whose only dated tests are the ~09-17 dividend decision and the ~10-20 Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $250 extends the unwind that already took out the $272 shelf and leaves the entire July–August range overhead; secondary: a September dividend raise at or under the 4% declared 2025-09-18, or Q3 revenue at the ~2026-10-20 print below the $5.65B guide floor. --- ### UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UCTT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-21 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, AI datacenter infrastructure Thesis: WFE upcycle intact fundamentally but the tape broke: -35% from the $142.59 all-time close (2026-06-30) back under the ~$95 breakout shelf on sector-wide selling with no company news. Failed breakout, no support to $80.55, binary Q2 print 2026-08-03 AMC. The setup needs a base, not a bounce. Kill line: A weekly close below $82 breaks the $80.55 June base and turns the July retrace into a trend reversal; secondary condition is Lam or Applied cutting the $140–145B 2026 WFE figure, or a Q3 guide on 2026-08-03 below ~$580M. --- ### UFPT — UFP Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UFPT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics Thesis: The $300 shelf broke: the 2026-09-04 close of $288.79 sits 13.8% under the $334.84 high with RSI(14) at 15.8, the lowest reading in the series, and the entire post-Q2 re-rate is now overhead. Six insiders filed sales between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-25, the last at $303.58–$305.41 — below the earlier band. Nothing company-dated lands before the ~2026-11-02 Q3 print, leaving a broken leg to either base or keep repricing. Kill line: A weekly close below $288.79 puts the 2026-09-04 reference close behind price and reframes the drawdown as repricing rather than washout, with no dated shelf beneath it; secondarily, Q3 2026 organic growth (~2026-11-02) printing under the 6.8% first-half rate. --- ### UHAL — U-Haul Holding Company URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UHAL/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Housing, homebuilders & proptech, AI chips & memory Thesis: The post-print re-rating has unwound: after a 52-week high at $75.27 in mid-August, UHAL closed 2026-08-28 at $68.59 with RSI(14) at 19.8, sitting on the $68.25 shelf that was July's ceiling. No company news since the 2026-08-24 8-K and nothing dated until the ~2026-11-04 Q2 print, leaving a saturated narrative defending a level rather than extending one. Kill line: A weekly close below $68 gives back the July breakout shelf at the prior $68.25 ceiling and returns price to the pre-breakout range; secondary, a Q2 FY2027 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with revenue per occupied square foot decelerating under +5% while occupancy stays below 90%. --- ### UI — Ubiquiti Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Networking & optical, Squeeze & momentum setups Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Broken parabola gone flat: six weeks of $530–$570 chop after the May 8 print (GM 47.0%, rev +18.7%, but EPS $3.88 vs ~$4.42 whisper) with zero scheduled catalyst until the Q4 FY26 report on 2026-08-21. Fundamentals intact, tape dead, multiple already reset to ~34.8x — nothing to engage until the print gives the range a direction. Kill line: A weekly close below $500 breaks the six-week $530–$570 post-crash shelf and turns May into the first leg rather than the whole move, with the $380.00 52-week low as the next reference; a Q4 FY26 print on 2026-08-21 showing GAAP gross margin back under 42% or revenue below the $788.2M run-rate is the fundamental confirmation. --- ### UNIT — Uniti Group Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/UNIT/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-31 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Hyperscaler dark-fiber demand turned the post-Windstream deleveraging grind into a growth story (~$1.5B disclosed funnel, $68.7M of Q1 IRU revenue from one hyperscaler), but the June re-rate to ~$11 has stalled in a three-week range above a $10.47 consensus target. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the next binary on a >10x-levered credit. Kill line: A weekly close below $9.80 forfeits the June hyperscaler-funnel breakout leg and puts the $7.50–7.80 pre-run shelf back in play; secondary breaks are the 2026-07-30 Q2 print cutting FY2026 guidance below $3.63B revenue / $1.45B adjusted EBITDA, or the ~$91.1M Oklahoma prefunding failing regulatory approval and reverting to note prepayment. --- ### URGN — UroGen Pharma Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/URGN/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Oncology & immunology Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The 2026-08-17 UGN-103 NDA submission landed six weeks ahead of the Q3 target and emptied the calendar — nothing company-dated until the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print. Price set a $50.29 52-week high after 2026-08-14, then gave back 13.3% into the 2026-08-28 close of $43.62 with RSI(14) at 39.9, leaving a maturing narrative in which the ZUSDURI ramp still compounds but the flow behind it has thinned. Kill line: A weekly close below $40 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and forfeits the July shelf at $40.97; secondary conditions are Q3'26 ZUSDURI revenue at or below $50.4M, or an FDA refuse-to-file / major-amendment disclosure on the UGN-103 NDA submitted 2026-08-17. --- ### VAC — Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VAC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Travel & leisure, Consumer discretionary rotation, Fintech & consumer credit Thesis: Post-Q2 re-rating is giving back: the 2026-08-28 close of $110.09 is 9.0% under the 2026-08-14 close of $120.99, MarketBeat consensus sits at $101.45 (2026-08-29), and 10%-owner Impactive Capital sold 750,000 shares at $111.49 on 2026-08-19. The $805–830M FY EBITDA guide is intact, leaving a maturing narrative with no confirmed company catalyst before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $106 forfeits the early-July $105.97 shelf the 2026-08-06 gap cleared; secondarily, further Impactive Capital Form 4 sales at or under the $111.49 block level, or any trim to the $805–830M FY adjusted EBITDA guide at the Q3 print. --- ### VECO — Veeco Instruments Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VECO/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-22 Themes: M&A & special situations, Semi foundry & equipment, AI chips & memory, Analog semiconductors Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Merger-arb tracking stock for Axcelis: fixed 0.3575 ACLS/VECO, both votes cleared 2026-02-06, only China SAMR remains before the 2026-09-30 outside date. ACLS's slide to ~$134 de-pegged VECO to a premium over the exchange ratio (~$48) — market pricing standalone-floor/deal-break odds, not momentum. Live binary is a slow Chinese regulator; ACLS is the fuller-participation vehicle. Kill line: A weekly close below $46 — a decisive break through the ~0.3575×ACLS exchange-ratio value (~$48) confirming the arb spread blowing out on rising deal-break odds; corroborated by SAMR shifting from simplified to normal review, a formal block, or the deal slipping past the 2026-09-30 outside date. --- ### VERI — Veritone, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERI/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: AI enterprise software, Defense & aerospace Next catalyst: 2026-10-02 Thesis: The growth story broke on the 2026-08-13 guide cut to $100–115M from $130–145M; what trades now is $45.6M of 1.75% converts maturing 2026-11-15 against $12.7M of cash at 2026-06-30 and disclosed going-concern doubt. The stock bounced from $0.80 on 2026-08-28 to $0.91 on 2026-09-04 with no SEC filing and no press release since 2026-08-13, leaving a dead narrative and an unresolved capital-structure binary. Kill line: A weekly close below $0.50 would show the market settling the convertible outcome ahead of the event rather than pricing a binary into it; secondarily, the estimated late-September window passing with no 8-K on the $45.6M 1.75% notes and a Nasdaq minimum-bid deficiency notice arriving first. --- ### VERU — Veru Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VERU/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-09 Thesis: The Novo squeeze is fully round-tripped and the funding answer arrived on 2026-07-02: a $21.8M at-the-market program via Oppenheimer/Canaccord. At $2.42 (07-15) that is ~9M shares against ~16M outstanding — the company will now sell stock into every rally. No live narrative leg; PLATEAU interim data is Q1 2027. Kill line: A daily close below $2.25 completes the round-trip to the pre-Novo shelf and opens the $2.05 52-week low; the setup only re-arms on a reclaim and hold of the $3.00 warrant strike with the ATM demonstrably unused. --- ### VIR — Vir Biotechnology, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VIR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-28 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-04-19 Themes: Binary-catalyst biotech, Oncology & immunology, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-14 Thesis: Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $238.9M revenue and $0.47 diluted EPS on Astellas upfront recognition — an accounting swing, and the tape read it as one: $9.24 on 2026-08-14, still under the $10.36 Astellas equity strike, with Morgan Stanley and Leerink both cutting targets the next day. Nothing hard is dated until ECLIPSE 1 topline in Q4 2026. Kill line: A weekly close below $8.60 voids the June reclaim structure, losing both the 2026-06-17 swing low at $8.86 and the mid-July 50-DMA shelf near $8.71. Secondary breaks: ECLIPSE 1 topline restated past Q4 2026, or VIR-5818 Phase 1 data guided out of H2 2026 at the Q3 print. --- ### VKTX — Viking Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VKTX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: The stock has round-tripped its ECO move — $32.16 on 2026-08-28, 23.7% below the $42.13 high, the ~$34 line gone since 2026-08-14. The only company-guided 2026 event left is the VK2735 maintenance readout, a Phase 1 whose weight endpoint is exploratory, due before 2026-09-30; VANQUISH topline is 2027. Mainstream retail coverage arrived 2026-08-27 into a saturated narrative with no wider bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $30 forfeits the low-$30s and opens the $22.96 52-week low; secondary, 2026-09-30 passing with no VK2735 maintenance-dose data released, which leaves no company-guided data event before the 2027 VANQUISH topline. --- ### VOYG — Voyager Technologies, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VOYG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Space economy Next catalyst: 2026-09-10 Thesis: The order-flow re-rating leg has stalled: the entire post-Q2 advance was handed back between 2026-08-21 ($38.40) and the 2026-08-28 close of $34.29 with no company release in that window, RSI(14) at 20.7. Backlog of $335.5M and the $275–305M FY guide are intact, and NASA's final commercial-station RFP is now scheduled for September 2026, making the 09-10 and 09-15 conferences the first test of a well-known story with thinning flow. Kill line: A weekly close below $32 extends the give-back past the entire post-print band and marks the August advance as positioning rather than a re-rating; secondary condition — September ending with no final NASA Commercial LEO Destination RFP against the schedule posted 2026-08-27, or the $275–305M FY guide being narrowed at the 09-10 or 09-15 conferences. --- ### VPG — Vishay Precision Group, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VPG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-28 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-13 Themes: Analog semiconductors, AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid Thesis: The AI-precision re-rate broke at the print: Q2 (2026-08-05) missed on revenue ($83.936M vs $84.646M) and adjusted EPS ($0.04 vs $0.19), Q3 guide midpoint sits below consensus, and the stock gapped -26.95% to $73.78 and has since made lower lows at $67.29 (2026-08-11). Orders held at 1.14 book-to-bill; margins did not. Price now sits on the $65.63 200-day with no dated catalyst for ~3 months. Kill line: A weekly close below $65 loses the 200-day average, the last structural reference under the June advance, and confirms the post-print unwind is extending rather than basing; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with adjusted EPS again under $0.10 on revenue inside the $84–89M guide would establish the margin break as structural rather than FX and KELK timing. --- ### VSXY — Victorias Secret & Co. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/VSXY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: Turnaround re-accelerated with no new number: the July mid-$70s range broke, a $99.97 52-week high printed, then 11% came back into the 2026-09-03 Q2 report. Consensus target $91.40 sits ~3% over the $89.02 close on 2026-08-14, so the print — not flow — underwrites the next leg. Kill line: A weekly close below $79 unwinds the August breakout and returns price to the July mid-$70s digestion band; secondarily, a 2026-09-03 Q2 print that leaves the FY2026 adjusted operating-income guide of $550–580M unchanged, or lands Q2 at/below the $1.590B low end. --- ### W — Wayfair Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/W/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-24 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-16 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Housing, homebuilders & proptech, AI enterprise software Next catalyst: 2026-09-16 Thesis: Margin-inflection turnaround has stalled: after the June Evercore-driven pop, W has faded ~10% back to the ~$84–85 recovery base ahead of the binary Aug 4 Q2 print. Wedbush's Jul 16 Neutral/$104 initiation and a ~$100-capped consensus mark a maturing theme — price sitting on the invalidation line with earnings inside two weeks is a stand-aside, not a chase. Kill line: A weekly close below $83 fills the June 23 Evercore gap and loses the $84–85 recovery base; secondary breaks: the Aug 4 Q2 print showing adjusted EBITDA margin under the guided 6–7% or revenue decelerating below mid-single-digit YoY, or the consumer-brands-rotation theme flipping to saturated. --- ### WGS — GeneDx Holdings Corp. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WGS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-05 Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Oncology & immunology, Freight & logistics Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Busted-growth genomics name; the recovery off the −49% May guide-cut crash has stalled in the low-$60s, below the $74.83 200-day. The confirmed Aug 3 Q2 print (blended ARR vs the ~$3,300 baseline) is the binary — the same day as the class-action lead-plaintiff deadline. Mean-reversion into an event, not a fresh accelerating leg; the setup does not clear ahead of the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $52 breaks the June recovery shelf and the rising 50-day near $56.56, reopening the path to the $32.21 May low; a Q2 blended ARR (Aug 3) below ~$3,300 confirms the busted-growth regime. --- ### WHD — Cactus, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WHD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-31 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-08-03 Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI datacenter infrastructure Next catalyst: 2026-09-11 Thesis: International wellhead order narrative from the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat is intact, but the re-rating leg is largely spent: Citigroup cut to Neutral on 2026-08-20 while raising its target to $75, and the shares closed $69.43 on 2026-08-21, 5.8% off the $73.73 closing high with RSI back to 63.6. Nothing company-specific resolves before the Q3 print (~2026-10-28, est.). Kill line: A daily close below $66 loses the August range built after the Q2 print, putting price under the 2026-08-07 close of $67.90 and the $67.6489 COO sale print; secondary, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) with Pressure Control worse than the guided -10% sequential. --- ### WING — Wingstop Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WING/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-07-17 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-06-14 Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Precision biotech & therapeutics, Biofuels & low-carbon fuels Next catalyst: 2026-09-05 Thesis: Two analyst target cuts in ten days (Wells Fargo to $170, DA Davidson to $200) into the 2026-07-29 Q2 print signal de-risking ahead of the H2 comp-turn binary; a ~50% relief bounce off the $116.35 low is unproven, and the print — not momentum — sets direction with earnings two trading days out. Kill line: A weekly close below $160 forfeits the TD Cowen fair-value shelf and the recovery base off the $116.35 low; confirmation comes if the 2026-07-29 print delivers a second consecutive negative domestic same-store-sales quarter with a cut to the FY2026 guide. --- ### WLFC — Willis Lease Finance Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WLFC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a2 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-07-08 Themes: Small-cap value rotation, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-08 Thesis: Engine-leasing supercycle still printing records (Q1 rev +23%, EPS $4.03 vs $3.02 est), but the theme is maturing and the stock has faded ~18% off its 2026-07-06 ATH into the now-completed 3-for-1 split. The event stack has collapsed to one binary — the 2026-08-04 Q2 print — so a fresh entry now buys straight into an earnings blackout. Kill line: A weekly close below $60 (post-split basis; loses the multi-month breakout base and rising 20-week trend). Secondary: a 2026-08-04 Q2 print with lease-rent flat-to-down QoQ, or IBA flipping engine lease rates from elevated to declining — theme rotating to saturated. --- ### WPP — WPP PLC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WPP/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, AI enterprise software Thesis: The flow leg is settled and it went the wrong way: the 2026-09-02 FTSE review promoted easyJet and Ithaca Energy, not WPP, and RSI(14) has unwound from 76.8 on 2026-08-21 to 46.6 at the 2026-09-04 close of $25.32. What remains is a purely fundamental re-rating off the 2026-08-06 H1 beat, with no company-dated test until the ~2026-10-23 Q3 update — a maturing narrative running into an empty calendar. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 hands back the bulk of the 2026-08-06 results gap and ends the re-rating leg; secondarily, a Q3 update (est. ~2026-10-23) with like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs worse than Q2's −2.8%, or a trim to the 12–13% FY headline operating margin guide. --- ### WRLD — World Acceptance Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WRLD/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Fintech & consumer credit, Small-cap value rotation Next catalyst: 2026-09-30 Thesis: Three-month price change decayed from +27.1% to +12.3% in two weeks, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated binary before the 2026-10-22 Q2 print and $181 as the gap-fill line. Kill line: A weekly close below $181 completes the 2026-07-24 earnings-gap fill and erases the post-print re-rating; a weekly close below $170 forfeits the June breakout shelf toward the $143.82–$156 published target cluster. Secondary: a second consecutive revenue miss on ~2026-10-22, or 0–60 dpd at 2026-09-30 above the 18.1% of 2026-06-30 year-over-year. --- ### WSC — WillScot Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSC/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a3 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-08-14 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-05-10 Themes: AI datacenter infrastructure, Industrial power & grid, M&A & special situations, Housing, homebuilders & proptech Next catalyst: 2026-09-02 Thesis: Cyclical modular-space leasing recovery with a small data-center kicker and an activist/M&A floor, but range-bound and digesting: shares drifted to ~$26 under the $31.88 high after the 2026-06-27 Russell growth-index removal. The confirmed 2026-08-06 Q2 print is the binary on the H2 leasing inflection; no accelerating leg yet, so it stays a probe until a weekly close over $31.88 or a confirmed bid. Kill line: A weekly close below $24 loses the post-Q1 recovery base and the rising longer-term moving average; secondary: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print cutting the $915M FY26 Adj EBITDA guide, leasing still negative YoY, or a TOMS Capital exit removing the takeover floor. --- ### WSM — Williams-Sonoma, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WSM/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a7 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Consumer discretionary rotation, Cybersecurity, Freight & logistics Thesis: Q2 on 2026-08-26 resolved the binary bullish — comp +6.2%, non-GAAP EPS $2.10 vs $2.08 est., FY comp guide raised to +4.0%–+6.5% and margin guide to 17.8%–18.2% — and seven desks moved targets into a $240–$270 band. The 2026-08-28 close of $235.09 sits below all of them with RSI(14) at 24.6, so the catalyst is spent, coverage is saturated, and no company datapoint lands before the ~November Q3 print. Kill line: A weekly close below $225 returns price to the July range ($226.74 on 2026-07-25) and unwinds the August revision-cluster advance; secondary break is the $240–$270 post-print target band going stale via valuation-driven cuts with no company datapoint until the ~November Q3 print. --- ### WTTR — Select Water Solutions, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WTTR/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Oil, energy & geopolitical, Critical materials & rare earths Thesis: Contracted produced-water midstream re-rate is intact on fundamentals — the 2026-08-18 amendment extended the Northern Delaware agreement 12 years across ~875,000 acres and JP Morgan initiated Overweight at $24 on 2026-08-21 — but shares fell from the $21.03–$21.61 announcement-day range to $19.28 on 2026-08-28 into both, a maturing narrative with no company-dated catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. Kill line: Secondary: the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing Adjusted EBITDA at or under the $90M low end with Water Infrastructure margin at the guided 56% floor. --- ### XENE — Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XENE/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, Binary-catalyst biotech Next catalyst: 2026-09-07 Thesis: The $62 consolidation shelf failed at the 2026-08-28 weekly close of $59.99, and two dated events now sit inside 30 days: the EEC oral presentation of X-TOLE2 on 2026-09-07 and the guided Q3 FOS NDA submission by 2026-09-30. Neither is an efficacy readout, and the 2026-08-26 Biohaven/SK Kv7 licence ($400M upfront) put a third-party price on the competing asset while the tape kept fading. Kill line: A weekly close below $55 confirms the fade from the 2026-07-09 high of $70.96 as trend rather than consolidation, after the prior $62 shelf failed at the 2026-08-28 weekly close of $59.99; compounded if the azetukalner FOS NDA is not submitted by 2026-09-30. --- ### XHG — XChange TEC.INC URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XHG/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: M&A & special situations, AI datacenter infrastructure, Semi foundry & equipment Thesis: The 2026-08-13 non-binding First Cycle LOI re-rated XHG ~4x, and the leg has since stalled: no company disclosure in 16 sessions, the 2026-08-28 close of $3.41 sits 26.2% under the $4.62 high, and a registered $100.0M discretionary ADS purchase facility (SPA 2026-04-15) sits open. A saturated one-document story with nothing binding scheduled inside 30 days. Kill line: A daily close below $2.50 puts the ADS back inside the untraded gap between roughly $1.11 and $3.80 and surrenders most of the 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-14 advance; secondarily, the First Cycle LOI lapsing, converting to ADS-funded consideration, or a 6-K disclosing draws under the $100.0M VG facility. --- ### XOS — Xos, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XOS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved invalidated 2026-09-03 (published trigger fired) · published 2026-08-19 Themes: Defense & aerospace, EV & autonomous mobility, AI chips & memory Thesis: First-ever U.S. Air Force award (prototype OTA for the Xos Hub mobile BESS, announced 2026-08-17, terms not disclosed) took the stock ~100% on 2026-08-18 and put a defense-pivot narrative on a going-concern EV maker that just missed Q2 revenue at $4.74M vs $14.3M consensus. Attention is fresh; the dollar value behind it is undisclosed and directors sold into the second day. Kill line: A daily close below $3.00 fills most of the 2026-08-18 defense-headline gap and points price back toward the pre-announcement $2.70 area; secondary condition — the Air Force OTA reaching the Q3 print (~2026-11-12 est.) with no disclosed contract value, delivery schedule or follow-on award. --- ### XRAY — DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRAY/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Medtech & diagnostics, Semi foundry & equipment, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-01 Thesis: The turnaround re-rating leg resolved at the 2026-08-06 Q2 print and then reversed: $13.78 pre-print, $13.19 on the print session, $11.12 by 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 34.3. Barclays kept Underweight on 2026-08-24 while lifting its target to $11, below the last close. No company event reports a number before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, leaving a dead narrative and an $11 floor as the only remaining structure. Kill line: A weekly close below $11 loses the post-print floor and confirms the summer advance was a rally inside a downtrend; secondary: the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print showing a constant-currency sales decline worse than Q2's -6.3%, or any trim to the $3.5-3.6B sales / $1.40-1.50 adjusted EPS FY guide reaffirmed 2026-08-06. --- ### XRX — Xerox Holdings Corporation URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XRX/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-07 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-05-03 Themes: M&A & special situations, Cyclical industrials Next catalyst: 2026-09-15 Thesis: Distressed-deleveraging special situation that round-tripped its June activist pop into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print. At ~$2.60 it sits below the $2.75 Hold consensus and inside the $2.25–$2.50 target band; anchor buyer STARTEEPO (8.8M sh, ~6.84%, now #2 holder) just said it hit its "target ownership for the current phase" — the structural bid was the whole thesis and it has stated it's done. No momentum into the print. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.43 loses the May base shelf and the entire post-activist structure, opening the path toward the $1.19 low; secondary: the 2026-07-30 Q2 print showing gross leverage still ≥7x with no FCF inflection, or a STARTEEPO 13D/A revealing a reduced stake. --- ### XTLB — XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XTLB/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a4 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Precision biotech & therapeutics, M&A & special situations, Small-cap value rotation Thesis: The compliance-cure leg is spent and the $2.70 private-placement shelf broke — $2.47 on 2026-08-28 — even as the psychedelics complex got its loudest policy headline of the year on 2026-08-18 (University of Miami's 1994 ibogaine IND handed to the federal government). What is left is undated optionality on Psyga's licensed ibogaine API facility, against a going-concern flag, ~25% milestone dilution and no scheduled company catalyst. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.20 leaves the ADS under every reference close since the 2026-06-30 merger completion and confirms the pivot re-rate has fully unwound; a financing 6-K priced under $2.47, or the 2026-08-18 ibogaine policy cycle passing with no XTL release naming Psyga's ibogaine API facility, confirms it. --- ### YAAS — Youxin Technology Ltd URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/YAAS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Semi foundry & equipment, Crypto exchanges & financials, Oil, energy & geopolitical, AI enterprise software Thesis: Prior coverage's $2.50 break level is gone — the 2026-08-28 close was $2.14. The 2026-08-27 H1 print delivered the first real revenue line in this name (+444% to $1.88M, 41% gross margin) and no bid followed it; cash halved to $4.55M against a $20M RiverBit term sheet that is still non-binding and unlaunched, leaving a dead narrative whose only live question is whether the $2 handle holds. Kill line: A weekly close below $2.00 confirms the 2026-08-27 H1 print bought no floor and leaves fresh post-consolidation lows with the $1.00 Nasdaq bid threshold — uncured under Rule 5810(c)(3)(A)(iv) — one leg away; secondarily, end-September passing with no 6-K confirming a live RiverBit platform expires the last dated narrative. --- ### ZENA — ZenaTech, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZENA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a6 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Defense & aerospace, Cyclical industrials, M&A & special situations Next catalyst: 2026-09-03 Thesis: The Section 232 leg is spent for ZENA: the 2026-08-13/14 policy advance round-tripped to a 2026-08-28 close of $1.71, breaking the $1.95 weekly shelf and the $2.12 May unit price, and the company's own 2026-08-17 advantage release carried no rate, order value or margin figure. Q2 did not print by the ~2026-08-18 estimate, leaving a broken structure whose only dated event is the 2026-09-03 tariff effective date. Kill line: A weekly close below $1.70 puts price under the 2026-08-28 close of $1.71 and leaves the whole 2026-08-13/14 Section 232 advance retraced; secondary break is 2026-09-03 passing with no disclosed rate on ZenaTech's own units, no dollar-valued order, and still no Q2 6-K. --- ### ZS — Zscaler, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZS/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a1 · Status: DORMANT Themes: Cybersecurity, AI enterprise software Thesis: The binary resolved against the recovery frame: Q4 FY26 beat every guided line on 2026-09-03 (ARR $3,771M above the $3.749B top end, net new ARR $246M vs $166M), but the first formal FY27 guide of 16.6–17.5% growth ratified the May reset, and the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $169.80, down ~4%, while thirteen houses republished targets spanning $165 to $230. What is left is a mid-teens grower with no company-dated catalyst until the December print. Kill line: A weekly close below $165 unwinds the advance that retraced the 2026-05-27 gap-down; secondarily, Q1 FY27 revenue printing beneath the guided $935-939M in early December would confirm the 16.6-17.5% FY27 frame as a ceiling rather than a floor. --- ### ZVRA — Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. URL: https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ZVRA/ Conviction: LOW · Archetype: a5 · Status: DORMANT Outcome: resolved played out 2026-08-06 (published trigger did not fire) · published 2026-06-11 Themes: Rare disease & gene therapy, Binary-catalyst biotech, Precision biotech & therapeutics Next catalyst: 2026-09-22 Thesis: The June patent re-rating fully reversed: EMA's CHMP issued a negative opinion on arimoclomol's EU application 2026-07-24 (efficacy not proven), and ZVRA gapped ~24% to the high-$9s, cutting through the $11.50 base. EU expansion is now blocked pending a re-examination that won't resolve before Q4; no accelerating narrative remains, and the next binary is the early-August Q2 print. Kill line: A daily close below $8.52 (loses the 2026-07-24 CHMP-selloff low) confirms the de-rating extending toward the $7.16 52-week low and kills any basing thesis; secondarily, a Q2 print in early August with MIPLYFFA net revenue below Q1's $24.6M would confirm the sole US revenue engine stalling. --- ## Journal entries · latest first ### 2026-09-10 — Thursday, September 10, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-10/ Regime: NEUTRAL The real 10Y rate rose 3bps week over week through 2026-09-09, increasing the inflation-adjusted rate against which equity valuations are assessed. This is the clearest valuation headwind in the supplied rate data; whether equities respond remains unresolved. FRED’s weekly changes do not establish what moved during today’s equity session. Inferred: directional conviction remains limited because SPY’s position above its long-term average lacks broad participation confirmation in the model’s mixed breadth reading. Calm VIX also leaves the weekly credit widening without volatility corroboration. The supplied snapshot and weekly deltas are too small a sample to establish a persistent trend.… --- ### 2026-09-09 — Wednesday, September 9, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-09/ Regime: NEUTRAL The 2Y Treasury yield rose 5bps week over week in FRED’s 2026-09-08 observation, outpacing the 10Y increase of 3bps and leaving a flatter yield curve. The measured move concentrates rate pressure at the shorter maturity; it does not establish a change in policy expectations. These observations describe weekly changes through 2026-09-08, not moves during today’s session. Inferred: mixed participation limits the evidence for broad equity strength despite SPY trading above its long-term average. Calm volatility offers no corroboration of stress from the supplied weekly credit widening. This sample supports neither a directional forecast nor a claim of persistent deterioration. Limited… --- ### 2026-09-08 — Tuesday, September 8, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-08/ Regime: NEUTRAL The 10Y Treasury yield rose 5bps week over week in FRED’s 2026-09-04 reading, implying a higher discount-rate hurdle for future earnings. The measured composition limits that inference: breakeven inflation rose 4bps against a 1bp increase in the real yield, so the move was predominantly inflation compensation. These are weekly changes in lagged observations, not evidence of repricing during today’s session; the supplied Treasury readings end on 2026-09-04 and credit on 2026-09-07. Inferred: conviction in broad equity strength remains limited because the model classifies participation as mixed despite SPY trading above its long-term average. Conversely, the supplied weekly credit widening… --- ### 2026-09-07 — Monday, September 7, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-07/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. A mixed tape — the model reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work. Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-09-07. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L. -- --- ### 2026-09-05 — Saturday, September 5, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-05/ Regime: NEUTRAL NEUTRAL — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime read is NEUTRAL, unchanged from the prior call. Nothing in the underlying inputs argues for a different label. VIX closed the week at 15.2 — calm by any reading. SPY finished at 773.12 against a 200-EMA of 716.44, +7.9% above trend. That combination normally reads as risk-on, and the thing holding the label back is breadth: 530 of 979 names above their own 200-EMA, 54.1%, which is mixed. An index 7.9% above trend carried by a bare majority of its constituents is a narrower tape than the headline suggests. Rates gave up nothing. The 10Y sits at 4.77% as of September 3, up 4bps on the week,… --- ### 2026-09-04 — Friday, September 4, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-04/ Regime: NEUTRAL Every basis point of this week's 10Y rise was inflation compensation: the breakeven added 4bps while the real 10Y held flat at 2.42%, so the long end repriced without adding any pressure to the rate that discounts back-loaded earnings. The front end contributed nothing — the 2Y was unchanged on the week — which makes the 4bp steepening to 0.43% a long-end event in full, and leaves the 2Y sitting well above the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped 2026-08-01, a price on an expected path rather than a delivered one. Credit was the largest single step in the block: high yield widened 5bps, one basis point more than the nominal 10Y moved, and it is the only input here that widened by more than the… --- ### 2026-09-03 — Thursday, September 3, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-03/ Regime: NEUTRAL High yield widened 6bps to 2.66%, matching the 10Y's own 6bp rise and making credit the joint-largest mover in the block — the one channel that could have cushioned higher discount rates leaned the same way instead. The composition of the nominal move is the second thing worth flagging: 3bps of the 10Y's rise came from the real rate and 3bps from the breakeven, an even split that hands half the move to added inflation compensation rather than to pure discount-rate pressure. The front end added 5bps, a basis point less than the long end, so the curve steepened to 0.40% — a shape change too small to carry information on its own. The 2Y remains well above the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped… --- ### 2026-09-02 — Wednesday, September 2, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-02/ Regime: NEUTRAL The front end took the week's largest move: the 2Y added 19bps to 4.39%, well clear of the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped 2026-08-01, which keeps the move a repricing of the expected path rather than a response to a delivered one. The 10Y rose 12bps behind it, so the curve compressed rather than inverted, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread at 0.40% after giving back 7bps. Decomposition matters more than the headline here: the real 10Y added 10bps while the breakeven added 2bps, so almost the entire nominal rise is discount rate with only a sliver of added inflation compensation attached. Credit did not offset it this week — high yield widened 2bps, a small move but the same direction as rates, where… --- ### 2026-09-01 — Tuesday, September 1, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-09-01/ Regime: NEUTRAL Every maturity on the sheet sold off this week and the front end led it: the 2Y added 15bps to 4.34%, the largest single change in this block, with the 10Y up 9bps behind it. Because duration moved alongside the front end instead of sitting still, the 10Y–2Y spread gave back only 6bps and still prints positive at 0.41%. The composition of the 10Y move is the part that reaches equities — the real leg rose 10bps to 2.44% while the breakeven slipped 1bp to 2.31%, so the real component more than accounts for the entire nominal rise, with no added inflation compensation behind it. Credit leaned the other way, high yield tightening 4bps to 2.63%, the only easing observation in the rate complex.… --- ### 2026-08-31 — Monday, August 31, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-31/ Regime: NEUTRAL The 2Y added 10bps on the week to 4.34% while the 10Y gave back 1bp, putting the entire week's rate move at the front end and taking 11bps out of the 10Y–2Y spread. At 0.39% the curve is still positive, but the flattening came from the short end selling off while duration sat still. The 10Y's 1bp decline also conceals a decomposition working against the discount rate: the real leg rose 2bps to 2.42% and the breakeven fell 3bps to 2.31%, so what eased on the week was inflation compensation while the real cost of duration ticked up. Credit ran the other way — high yield tightened 10bps to 2.60%, the second-largest move on the sheet and the only one that argues against the front end. The 2Y… --- ### 2026-08-29 — Saturday, August 29, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-29/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The latest regime read is RISK-ON, matching the prior read — the close-of-day call from the last session, carried into a closed weekend. The supporting prints, all as given by the model: VIX 15.21, tagged calm. SPY 771.18 against a 200-EMA of 714.01, +8.0% above it. Breadth: 56.5% (553/978) above the 200-EMA, tagged healthy but unconfirmed. That qualifier is the tension in the read. The index sits well above its own trend line while a bit over half the measured universe participates. Extension and participation are not saying the same thing, and the model does not pretend otherwise. Rates, measured,… --- ### 2026-08-28 — Friday, August 28, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-28/ Regime: RISK-ON High yield tightened 7bps on the week to 2.63%, the largest single move anywhere in the block and the one that carries the most information: credit is the channel that typically deteriorates ahead of equity, and it moved the other way. The 10Y matched that magnitude, and the decomposition again sits almost entirely in the real leg — 6 of the 7bps came out of the real 10Y against 1bp at the breakeven, easing the discount rate without marking down nominal growth compensation. The front end lagged at 4bps, taking another 3bps out of the 10Y–2Y spread; the 2Y at 4.20% still prints above the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped 2026-07-01, so the week's easing lives in duration rather than in any… --- ### 2026-08-27 — Thursday, August 27, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-27/ Regime: RISK-ON Seven of the eight basis points that left the 10Y this week left the real rate rather than inflation compensation — the nominal settled at 4.66% while the breakeven gave up 1bp, holding the real 10Y at 2.33%. That decomposition eases the discount rate for long-duration equity without marking down expected nominal growth, which is the more constructive of the two ways a long-end yield can fall. The front end participated less, 5bps to 4.19%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread another 3bps to 0.47%; the 2Y still sits above the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped 2026-07-01, so the week's move lives in duration and not in the near-term policy path. Credit ran the same direction, high yield tightening 3bps… --- ### 2026-08-26 — Wednesday, August 26, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-26/ Regime: RISK-ON The week's rate move came out of the long end: the 10Y gave up 5bps to 4.64% against 2bps at the 2Y, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 3bps to 0.47%. The front end barely participated, so this reads as a duration bid and not a repricing of the policy path. The composition matters more than the size — 3bps of the 5 came out of the real 10Y and 2bps out of the breakeven, which is the friendlier decomposition for long-duration equity, since it eases the discount rate instead of marking down expected nominal growth. The nominal long-end yield now splits evenly, 2.32% real against 2.32% of inflation compensation. Credit moved the same direction over the same week, with high yield tightening 5bps to… --- ### 2026-08-25 — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-25/ Regime: RISK-ON High-yield spreads tightened 4bps on the week to 2.69%, and the credit widening the 2026-08-24 entry flagged as the one input pulling against the classification did not extend into a third print — the sequence that would have made credit directional is retired rather than confirmed, and the record's only cross-asset dissent is gone with it. The curve moved in parallel: 5bps at both the 2Y and the 10Y, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread unmoved at 0.46%. The composition of the long-end move flipped from the prior level's split — real yield carried +3bps of it against +2bps of inflation compensation, where a week earlier breakevens did nearly all the work. A nominal 4.70% financed by a rising real… --- ### 2026-08-24 — Monday, August 24, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-24/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-21, three days back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #13 on the public ledger. VIX at 16.01 sits in the calm band, higher than the prior level's reading but not out of it. Breadth reads 59.2% of the universe (577/975) above its 200-EMA, classified healthy but marginal — the qualifier is the model's, not an editorial gloss. SPY closed 765.64, +7.6% over its 200-EMA of 711.49. Rates rose across the curve: the 2Y added 7bps WoW to 4.24% and the 10Y added 6bps to 4.74%, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread 1bp narrower at 0.50%. The long-end move was inflation compensation, not real yield — the 10Y breakeven rose 7bps… --- ### 2026-08-22 — Saturday, August 22, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-22/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior call. The inputs behind it: VIX at 14.89 (calm), breadth at 55.7% of names above their 200-EMA (543 of 975, classed healthy but unconfirmed), and SPY closing at 762.62 against a 200-EMA of 710.9 +7.3% above trend. That combination is the interesting part. A tape 7.3% over its own 200-EMA with only 55.7% of constituents above theirs is a narrow advance, not a broad one. The index is doing the work; the median stock is closer to the line. Breadth sitting at "healthy but unconfirmed" rather than healthy is the honest description of it. Rates… --- ### 2026-08-21 — Friday, August 21, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-21/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-20, one session back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #12 on the public ledger. VIX at 14.89 sits in the calm band. Breadth reads 55.7% of the universe (543/975) above its 200-EMA, classified healthy but marginal — the qualifier is the model's, not an editorial gloss. SPY closed 762.62, +7.3% over its 200-EMA of 710.9. Rates bear flattened at the front: the 2Y added 2bps WoW to 4.19% while the 10Y added 1bp to 4.69%, compressing the 10Y–2Y spread 1bp to 0.50%. The decomposition inverts last session's: the 10Y breakeven rose 7bps to 2.34% while the real 10Y fell 6bps to 2.35%, so nominal stability at the… --- ### 2026-08-20 — Thursday, August 20, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-20/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-19, one session back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #11 on the public ledger. Breadth reads 61.6% of the universe (601/975) above its 200-EMA, inside the healthy band. SPY closed 769.09, +8.3% over its 200-EMA of 710.14. VIX at 15.84 sits in the calm band. Rates ran a bull flattener: the 10Y shed 3bps WoW to 4.65% while the 2Y added 2bps to 4.19%, narrowing the 10Y–2Y spread 5bps to 0.46%. The decomposition is one-sided — the real 10Y fell 6bps to 2.35% while the 10Y breakeven added 3bps to 2.30%, so the whole of the long-end decline came from the real leg and inflation compensation moved against it. HY… --- ### 2026-08-19 — Wednesday, August 19, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-19/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-14, five sessions back. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #10 on the public ledger. Breadth reads 62.0% of the universe (604/975) above its 200-EMA still scoring healthy, but a lower share and a smaller count than the prior read's 70.1% (684/976). SPY closed 767.37, +8.2% over its 200-EMA of 709.42, a narrower cushion than the 9.9% printed on 2026-08-14. VIX at 15.19 sits in the calm band, above the prior read's 14.55. The rate move was a bear steepener: the 10Y added 8bps WoW to 4.71% while the 2Y added 4bps to 4.19%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 4bps to 0.52%. The long-end rise was led by inflation… --- ### 2026-08-15 — Saturday, August 15, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-15/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior read. That call rests on three measured inputs rather than a narrative: VIX at 14.55, classified calm; breadth at 70.1% of the universe above its 200-EMA (684 of 976), classified healthy; and SPY closing at 777.84 against a 200-EMA of 707.75, or +9.9% above trend. Rates did not fight the tape. The 10Y sits at 4.63% as of 2026-08-13, down 2bps on the week; the 2Y at 4.15%, down 4bps. The 10Y-2Y spread printed 0.51% as of 2026-08-14, up 5bps week-over-week a modest steepening driven by the front end easing more than the long end. The 10Y… --- ### 2026-08-14 — Friday, August 14, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-14/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-13. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #9 on the public ledger. Breadth extended higher: 70.1% of the universe (684/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a larger count than the prior read and scoring healthy. SPY closed 777.84, +9.9% over its 200-EMA of 707.75, a wider cushion than the prior print. VIX at 14.55 sits in the calm band and below the prior read. The rate move was a bull steepener: the 2Y shed 4bps WoW to 4.15% while the 10Y shed 2bps to 4.63%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.48%. The long-end decline split evenly between its components breakevens fell 1bp to 2.24%, the real 10Y fell 1bp to 2.39%.… --- ### 2026-08-13 — Thursday, August 13, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-13/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-12. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #8 on the public ledger. Breadth turned up: 66.7% of the universe (651/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a higher count than the prior read and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 772.54, +9.3% over its 200-EMA of 706.93. VIX at 15.28 sits in the calm band, lower than the prior read. Rates firmed at the long end: the 10Y added 3bps WoW to 4.68% and the 2Y added 1bp to 4.20%, steepening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.48%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.26%; the real 10Y added 2bps to 2.42%. HY widened 1bp to 2.71%. Claims stand at 209K (+9K WoW, as of 2026-08-08). FRED market prints… --- ### 2026-08-12 — Wednesday, August 12, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-12/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-11. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #7 on the public ledger. Breadth slipped again: 66.5% of the universe (649/976) trades above its 200-EMA, a lower count than the prior read and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 770.52, +9.1% over its 200-EMA of 706.03. VIX at 15.46 sits in the calm band, higher than the prior read. Rates mostly stalled: the 10Y added 1bp WoW to 4.70% while the 2Y fell 3bps to 4.22%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread 4bps to 0.48%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.27%; the real 10Y was flat at 2.43%. HY widened 1bp to 2.72%. Claims stand at 199K (+1K WoW, as of 2026-08-01). FRED market prints carry an… --- ### 2026-08-11 — Tuesday, August 11, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-11/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-10. This is consecutive RISK-ON print #6 on the public ledger. Breadth gave back part of the prior recovery: 67.3% of the universe (656/975) trades above its 200-EMA, down from the prior count and still scoring healthy. SPY closed 773.02, +9.6% over its 200-EMA of 705.43. VIX at 14.9 sits in the calm band, lower again than the prior read. Rates reversed direction: the 10Y rose 9bps WoW to 4.72% and the 2Y rose 7bps to 4.25%, widening the 10Y–2Y spread by 2bps to 0.47%. Breakevens rose 7bps to 2.29% while the real 10Y added 2bps to 2.43%. HY tightened another 5bps to 2.70%. Claims stand at 199K (+1K WoW, as… --- ### 2026-08-10 — Monday, August 10, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-10/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-07. This is the fifth consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=5). Breadth recovered the ground it lost: 69.4% of the universe (677/975) trades above its 200-EMA, back above the prior count and scoring healthy. SPY closed 773.16, +9.7% over its 200-EMA of 704.75. VIX at 15.15 sits lower in the calm band than on the prior read. Rates fell harder than last week: the 10Y dropped 10bps WoW to 4.65% and the 2Y dropped 9bps to 4.19%, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread barely changed at 0.46% (−1bp). Breakevens fell 3bps to 2.25% and the real 10Y fell 7bps to 2.40%. HY tightened another 15bps to 2.70%. Claims… --- ### 2026-08-08 — Saturday, August 8, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-08/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON — the model's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The model's latest read is RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior read. Nothing in the underlying inputs argues with it. VIX closed at 15.81 calm. Breadth is 65.3% of the tracked universe above its 200-EMA (637 of 975), which is healthy participation rather than a narrow handful of names carrying an index. SPY closed at 768.64 against a 200-EMA of 704.34, +9.1% above trend. The bond tape did the confirming. The 10Y sits at 4.69% (as of 2026-08-06), down 6bps on the week; the 2Y at 4.25%, down 3bps. The 10Y-2Y spread printed 0.46% on 2026-08-07, down 1bp week-over-week a curve that moved essentially not at… --- ### 2026-08-07 — Friday, August 7, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-07/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-06. This is the fourth consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=4). Breadth gave back part of its gain: 65.3% of the universe (637/975) sits above its 200-EMA, still scoring healthy but roughly two points below the prior count. SPY closed 768.64, +9.1% over its 200-EMA of 704.34, a slightly thinner cushion as the trend line rose. VIX at 15.81 sits lower in the calm band. Rates continued lower with less force: the 10Y fell 6bps WoW to 4.69% and the 2Y fell 3bps to 4.25%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 3bps to 0.44%. Breakevens fell 2bps to 2.26% and the real 10Y fell 4bps to 2.43%, so most of the… --- ### 2026-08-06 — Thursday, August 6, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-06/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-04. This is the third consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=3). Breadth improved again: 67.0% of the universe (653/975) sits above its 200-EMA, scoring healthy for a second reading. SPY closed 769.79, +9.4% over its 200-EMA of 703.38 a wider cushion than the prior level carried. VIX at 16.5 remains in the calm band, marginally higher than the last print but nowhere near its edge. The rates block moved in one direction and with size this time: the 10Y fell 12bps WoW to 4.63% and the 2Y fell 10bps to 4.18%, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 2bps to 0.45%. Breakevens fell 6bps to 2.22% and the real 10Y… --- ### 2026-08-04 — Tuesday, August 4, 2026 URL: https://frontierpicks.com/journal/2026-08-04/ Regime: RISK-ON RISK-ON is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 2026-08-03. This is the second consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=2). The internals firmed rather than merely held. Breadth rose to 63.8% (623/976) above the 200-EMA and now scores healthy, up from the marginal score that carried the flip. SPY closed 757.72, +8.0% over its 200-EMA of 701.85, extending the price cushion. VIX at 15.99 sits deeper in the calm band. The rates block moved together and small: the 10Y at 4.70% and the 2Y at 4.25% each added 3bps WoW, leaving the 10Y–2Y spread flat at 0.45%. Breakevens rose 1bp to 2.27% and the real 10Y rose 2bps to 2.43%, so the parallel shift is mostly… --- ## Forward book (v5) - Radar (https://frontierpicks.com/radar/): this week's mechanical momentum clusters — the candidate list the forward theme-bet book curates from. A scan, not a position. - Forecasts (https://frontierpicks.com/forecasts/): the scored theme-bet forecasts — open bets and refusals, each with stated reasoning. A forward experiment published in full; no performance claim is made. No position sizes, prices, or account details. - Kill gates (https://frontierpicks.com/gates/): the pre-registered, tighten-only shutdown criteria — the conditions under which the strategy is de-scaled or declared dead, published before results. Machine-readable (JSON, same allow-listed data, no scraping): - https://frontierpicks.com/radar.json — triggered clusters (leader, members, breadth, volume_ratio). - https://frontierpicks.com/forecasts.json — open bets + refusals, each with stated reasoning (price-free). - https://frontierpicks.com/gates.json — each kill-gate criterion + its live verdict. ## Methodology summary Stage A: liquidity screen. Stage B: weekly momentum + narrative radar. Stage C: frontier-model quality assessment (the dossier). Stage D: theme-bet curation — shape or reject the triggered clusters into scored forecasts; sizing and exits are machine-owned. Stage E: mechanical outcome grading against pre-registered kill gates. Eight behaviour archetypes: Compounder, Cyclical recovery, Theme leader, Special situation, Earnings inflection, Retail squeeze, Defensive, Macro hedge. Each drives a behaviour profile and stop logic. Conviction levels: SUPREME, HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW. Each carries an explicit kill line that strips the conviction if breached. Full methodology: https://frontierpicks.com/methodology/ ## License + citation Content © FrontierPicks. Available for research and reference; attribute on republication. Educational under the BaFin and EU framework; not investment advice.