Watching
ITGR · Integer Holdings Corporation
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A daily close below $118, a level that would show the market pricing a real chance the $127.00 cash deal fails; a rejected shareholder vote on 21 October 2026 or a disclosed termination would also end the case.
Last pick High conviction, to : 0.0% against the S&P 500's +0.7%. Trailed the S&P 500 · conviction cut below medium.
Catalyst (in 9 days)
How picks are graded →The thesis
KKR's $127.00-per-share cash takeover of Integer Holdings Corporation is close to complete. The U.S. antitrust review ended early on 30 September 2026, and the 21 October 2026 shareholder vote is the last major step. Completion is now the likely outcome. The fixed cash price, however, leaves the shares almost no room to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Their return is capped at the small gap between the 1 October 2026 close of $126.42 and the $127.00 payment.
Integer said on 30 September 2026 that it had received early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) waiting period, the U.S. antitrust review. The company also reaffirmed that it expects the deal to close by the end of 2026. Integer 8-K exhibit, 30 September 2026 That followed clearance from Ireland's Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) on 25 September 2026. CCPC case record
The narrative is saturated: the $127.00 price has been public since 3 August 2026, and the 1 October 2026 close sits within a dollar of it. Few new buyers can arrive. Any news from here either confirms completion or threatens it.
Bullish and bearish views on Integer Holdings Corporation
The bull case on Integer Holdings Corporation (ITGR), in brief: U.S. antitrust review is finished. The bear case: The upside is capped at $127.00.
Bull case
- U.S. antitrust review is finished. Integer announced early termination of the HSR waiting period on 30 September 2026, which satisfies one condition of the merger agreement. That removes the risk of a second request that could have delayed the deal by months.
- Two regulators have now signed off. The CCPC in Ireland cleared the transaction on 25 September 2026, five days before the U.S. clearance.
- The vote is dated and close. The definitive proxy dated 14 September 2026 sets a virtual special meeting for 21 October 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, with a record date of 8 September 2026. Definitive proxy, reproduced
- Financing is committed. The 3 August 2026 announcement describes an enterprise value of about $5.7 billion, funded by equity and committed debt, with no financing condition. Transaction announcement
Bear case
- The upside is capped at $127.00. The 3 August 2026 agreement fixes the payment in cash. The shares cannot rise above it unless a higher offer appears or the terms change. A rising S&P 500 outpaces that payout over three months.
- Some approvals are still outstanding. The 30 September 2026 release says the deal still needs shareholder approval and "other regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions". It does not name the remaining regulators.
- Weak results if the deal fails. Second-quarter results released on 3 August 2026 showed sales down 2.6% year over year and organic sales down 1.5%. That gives little support to a standalone price if the deal breaks.
Price setup
On the adjusted daily series, the shares closed at $126.42 on 1 October 2026. The 52-week high is $126.50, and the close sits 0.1% below it. The shares are up 35.4% over three months, almost all of it from the jump on the 3 August 2026 deal announcement. Their 14-day relative strength index is 66.9.
The price now moves with the odds and timing of completion, not with Integer's business. The close has edged up from $126.34 on 25 September 2026 to $126.42 on 1 October 2026 as the two clearances arrived. A slide toward $118 would mean the market doubts the deal will close.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- 21 October 2026 — Special shareholder meeting. Holders on the 8 September 2026 record date vote on adopting the merger agreement. Approval removes the largest remaining condition.
- ~22 October 2026, est. Third-quarter results. This is a third-party estimate. Integer withdrew its full-year outlook on 3 August 2026, and a sale-pending company often reports without a call. The results matter mainly as a measure of value if the deal fails.
- 31 December 2026 — Company-guided closing. Integer reaffirmed on 30 September 2026 that it expects to close by the end of 2026. The merger agreement's outside date is 2 May 2027.
What would change the view
The case breaks if shareholders reject the merger on 21 October 2026. It also breaks if either party discloses a termination, or if Integer moves expected completion beyond year-end 2026. In price terms, a daily close below $118 would show the market pricing a real chance that the deal fails. A competing offer above $127.00 would change the case in the other direction: it would lift the cap. Nothing filed through 1 October 2026 points to one.
What it trades with
While the deal is pending, the shares track the odds of completion rather than the S&P 500 or other medical-device makers. The main shared exposures are broad merger-arbitrage spreads and credit conditions for leveraged buyouts, since KKR's financing includes committed debt. On closing, the shares will be delisted and stop trading.
Notes
- Integer withdrew its FY2026 financial outlook on 3 August 2026 while the KKR deal is pending, so no company forecast exists until it closes or ends.
- Upside is capped at $127.00 cash unless a better offer appears; the agreement has a $154M company termination fee and a $307M KKR reverse termination fee.
- The shares trade on the NYSE and will be delisted at closing, which the company expects by year-end 2026; the merger agreement's outside date is 2 May 2027.
- Only holders of record on 8 September 2026 can vote at the 21 October 2026 virtual special meeting on the merger.
- The merger sub, Armstrong Bidco, is an affiliate of funds managed by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (8-K filed 4 August 2026).
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