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FrontierPicks

827 US names, read every trading day by a frontier model.

Each one carries a dated thesis and the exact level that ends it. When that level goes, the pick closes and gets scored — in public, on the record.

Open picks, and what would end them

The red mark is the published kill line. The dot is where the name closed on 24 August 2026. Distance is drawn to scale up to 8%; beyond that a name reads simply as well clear.

ARCBArcBest Corporation
$135.75
$134.45
-1.0%line hit
AEHRAehr Test Systems
$96.43
$96.43
0.0%
ASMLASML Holding N.V.
$1,740.00
$1,740.13
+0.0%
MSTRStrategy Inc
$104.00
$122.63
+17.9%well clear

The state of the research

Everything, at a glance.

Scoreboard

Every pick, graded

351 resolved · 350 scored

351resolved · 350 scored · Brier 0.26

160 played out · 191 invalidated — each against its own published kill line. Brier covers 350: one pick staked no conviction tier, so it cannot be scored for calibration.

What changed · 7d

Latest moves

28 new · 49 resolved

The book · held + circling

What we hold

27 held · 33 circling

Held · 27

Circling · 33

Hot · momentum

Strongest trends

6 themes accelerating

The FrontierPicks momentum board — the top 5 US names by 3-month price momentum, as of 25 August 2026
# Name 3m 1m Accel
1 RFAI +380.4% +377.0% +376.2%
2 MRNA +234.0% +182.3% +164.1%
3 ARCT +114.6% +168.7% +188.8%
4 OABI +82.7% +129.6% +149.9%
5 EDRY +125.7% +114.7% +109.6%

Catalysts · this week

On the clock

168 this week

AstroNova, Inc.

event

today

American Resources Corporation

earnings

today
CCS

Century Communities, Inc.

earnings

today
CDW

CDW Corporation

earnings

today

+164 more this week

Themes in motion

Clusters picking up

6 accelerating · 12 maturing

Source: the FrontierPicks nightly pipeline — computed from US market close data, as of (Europe/Berlin).

Ranked · highest conviction first

Dossiers in rotation

All 827 →
HUM Humana Inc. fresh MEDIUM Margin-over-volume Medicare Advantage reset reclaimed its trend: the 2026-08-24 close of $386.61 is 2.0% above the prior session and back clear of the last 50-day value observed ($378.33, 2026-08-12), with RSI(14) at 64.6 from 52.5.… Compounder · Managed care & health services catalyst · IRDM Iridium Communications Inc fresh MEDIUM Deal-arb: $27.00 cash plus a collared RKLB stock leg marks a $54.00 package against the 2026-08-24 close of $47.30, a 12.41% discount. The S-4/A filed 2026-08-24 finally dated the special meeting (2026-09-24), but RKLB at $68.28 sits just… Earnings inflection · M&A & special situations · Space economy catalyst · MRCY Mercury Systems Inc fresh MEDIUM Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print.… Special situation · Defense & aerospace · Cyclical industrials catalyst · MU Micron Technology, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Contract-annuity leg intact — 16 take-or-pay deals, ~$100B minimum contracted revenue to late 2030 — but on 2026-08-24 the tape found a counter-narrative: reports the White House may let Apple source DRAM from CXMT ahead of Xi's ~09-24… Cyclical recovery · AI chips & memory catalyst · OKTA Okta, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme… Defensive · Cybersecurity · AI enterprise software catalyst · RXO RXO, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to… Compounder · Freight & logistics · Cyclical industrials catalyst ·

Themes · accelerating

Clusters picking up.

Themes in motion →

Critical materials & rare earths

Accelerating
confidence · 54%

Two separate drivers with dates: gold at three-month highs (2026-08-21) with AEM's Radisson placement (2026-08-24) and a Jefferies Buy initiation on IAG at $24 (2026-08-21); and US materials policy — Trump's $1.55B rare-earth move (2026-08-24), MP surging (2026-08-21), AA's gallium plant groundbreaking (2026-08-24), CLF rallying on the 50% Canada tariff threat (2026-08-24). A gold reversal below the level that produced the 08-21 high would split this cluster in two, since the precious-metals and policy-metals legs share no common catalyst.

Dossiers in this theme →

Crypto exchanges & financials

Accelerating
confidence · 54%

Bitcoin above $77,000 (2026-08-21) and near $80,000 (2026-08-25) is carrying the whole cluster: MSTR raised $2B with holdings turned profitable on a 24% BTC move (2026-08-24), CRCL drew a Bernstein $140 case and a Susquehanna PT to $92 (2026-08-24), BMNR bought $81M of ether (2026-08-24), PURR moved on Trump's Hyperliquid comments (2026-08-20). This is beta to one price, not eight theses — a BTC round-trip back below the 08-21 level invalidates the theme, not just individual names.

Dossiers in this theme →

Housing, homebuilders & proptech

Accelerating
confidence · 26%

New and resting almost entirely on one name: JELD's one-month score (115.0) is more than triple its three-month (35.9) after appearing in an industrials movers list (2026-08-19), against US home-builder sentiment edging higher in August (08-17). PRCH is decelerating (1m 44.6 vs 3m 79.1) and OPEN has no data or headline at all — three tickers with one real signal is too small a sample to call a housing rotation, and a flat JELD week ends it.

Dossiers in this theme →

The live book · held + circling

What we hold, in the open.

The live book →

Not a logo wall published a quarter late — the names we hold right now, and the ones we're circling, each with its thesis and its published kill line. Live and reasoned — each name dated, with the line that would prove it wrong.

Discovery views

Find names by what they're doing.

Most recent journal entry

Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Full entry →

Excerpt

High-yield spreads tightened 4bps on the week to 2.69%, and the credit widening the 2026-08-24 entry flagged as the one input pulling against the classification did not extend into a third print — the sequence that would have made credit directional is retired rather than confirmed, and the record's only cross-asset dissent is gone with it. The curve moved…

Browse by

Every output the model writes, indexed.

Understand the system

How the model thinks.

News window

30d

per candidate, daily

Earnings transcripts

4Q

synthesised per name

Archetypes

8

behaviour profiles

Context

1M

side-by-side candidate review

Common questions

What FrontierPicks is, in plain terms.

What is FrontierPicks?
FrontierPicks is an AI equity-research analyst. Every trading day, frontier language models — Anthropic's Claude Opus and Sonnet — read US equity news, filings and prices and write per-ticker dossiers, a regime-tagged journal, and weekly macro and sector views. We currently track 827 names, publishing each pick alongside the kill line that would prove it wrong, then resolving them in public. The reasoning, the names we hold, and the dated record are all public.
Does FrontierPicks keep score?
Yes. 351 picks have resolved in public so far (160 played out, 191 invalidated), each graded against the exact kill line it published in advance — not a return marked to a benchmark after the fact. Across the 350 that staked a conviction tier the Brier score is 0.26 — 0 is perfect, 0.25 a coin flip. The full Brier-scored record is public on the scoreboard.
What do we publish?
Everything the model thinks. Every pick, regime call, bull and bear case, and kill line — the full reasoning — plus the names we hold and the ones we're circling, each dated and scored against the line that would prove it wrong.
What is the current market regime?
The model classifies the macro backdrop into a single regime each trading day, and that call sets how aggressively we buy, how large a position can get, and how much cash we hold. The full taxonomy and what each regime gates live on the regimes page; the dated history runs through the journal.
Is this investment advice?
No. We publish educational research under the EU and BaFin framework — a transparent record of how a language model reads the market, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Always do your own work.
Is there anything to buy or sign up for?
No. There's no product, paywall, newsletter upsell or affiliate link — nothing to sell. We publish in the open as a falsifiable, dated track record. The incentive is to be right, and to be seen being right.

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