TXN · Texas Instruments Incorporated

The thesis

Texas Instruments' analog recovery and its new price increases still support the case, but the shares have given back the early-October rally, and the 21 October 2026 third-quarter report decides it. Revenue has to land inside the $5.65–6.15 billion range the company guided on 22 July 2026. The fourth-quarter guide then has to show the price increases reaching revenue and gross margin.

The shares closed at $288.20 on 8 October 2026, according to adjusted daily closes. That is 12.8% below the $330.59 52-week high set on 22 June 2026 and down from $297.23 on 6 October 2026. They fell 3.85% on 7 October 2026, according to ad-hoc-news. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) eased to 73.1 on 8 October 2026 from 87.5 two sessions earlier.

The narrative is maturing: the recovery has been public since the 22 July 2026 report, and from that date to 5 October 2026 the shares returned 0.8% against 3.5% for the S&P 500, according to Trefis. The AI data-center power angle behind the 2 October 2026 rally brought fresh attention, but most of that gain has already faded. Consensus third-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) is $2.39, according to a 30 September 2026 Barchart preview, near the middle of the company's $2.23–2.57 guide.

Bullish and bearish views on Texas Instruments Incorporated

The bull case on Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), in brief: Growth is broad and already reported. The bear case: Valuation leaves little room.

Bull case

• Growth is broad and already reported. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $5.46 billion, up 23% year over year, with industrial, data-center and automotive demand leading, according to the 22 July 2026 company release. Trefis reported on 6 October 2026 that data-center revenue doubled year over year.
• Guidance points to sequential growth. The full $5.65–6.15 billion third-quarter range issued on 22 July 2026 sits above second-quarter revenue of $5.46 billion. Reuters-sourced coverage on Yahoo Finance reported that the range topped the $5.61 billion analyst estimate at the time.
• Pricing has turned upward. Electronics distributor Aetrix reported in September 2026 that prices rose customer by customer in the third quarter. TradingKey reported portfolio-wide price adjustments entering October, so the fourth-quarter guide is the first to carry them in full.
• Free cash flow has rebuilt. Free cash flow was $6.53 billion in the 12 months through June 2026, up from $1.76 billion a year earlier, according to Investing.com on 17 September 2026.
• Analyst targets sit above the price. Zacks put the average analyst target at $326.48 on 6 October 2026, according to ad-hoc-news. MarketBeat listed a lower average of $304.26 across 30 analysts on 9 October 2026; both sit above the 8 October 2026 close.
• The dividend rose for a 23rd year. On 17 September 2026 the company raised the quarterly dividend 7%, from $1.42 to $1.52 per share, payable 10 November 2026 to holders of record on 30 October 2026.

Bear case

• Valuation leaves little room. Trefis put the trailing price-to-earnings ratio at 44.4 times on 6 October 2026, against 21.5 times for the S&P 500. A merely in-line quarter may not support that multiple.
• The last beat was sold. After the 22 July 2026 report the shares fell 2.2% over two sessions, according to Trefis, even though the third-quarter range topped estimates.
• The October rally has already reversed. The 3.85% drop on 7 October 2026 took back most of the move from the $281.31 close on 1 October 2026, and the shares still trade 12.8% under the 22 June 2026 high as of 8 October 2026.
• Momentum is still stretched into the print. The 14-day RSI of 73.1 on 8 October 2026 remains above the 70 level that marks overbought conditions, with the report 13 days away.

Price setup

The 8 October 2026 close of $288.20 sits above the 50-day moving average of $270.73 and the 200-day moving average of $247.77, both as of 5 October 2026 per Trefis. The shares are up 68.9% for 2026 through 5 October 2026, per Trefis, but down 3.0% over three months to 8 October 2026, according to adjusted daily closes. That pattern shows a large first-half rerating followed by a flat third quarter.

The relevant levels are the $281.31 close on 1 October 2026, where the October rally began, the 50-day average near $271, and the $330.59 52-week high. Crowding signals are the elevated RSI, the trailing multiple, and an earnings date inside two weeks. The report on 21 October 2026 is the next event large enough to move the shares outside the range of the past three months.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 21 October 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 earnings report and call, after the market close. Revenue tests the $5.65–6.15 billion guide, and EPS tests the $2.23–2.57 guide against a $2.39 consensus. The fourth-quarter revenue and margin guide shows whether the price increases are reaching results.
• 30 October 2026 — Record date for the $1.52 quarterly dividend. Payment follows on 10 November 2026 at the higher rate.

What would change the view

The case breaks if third-quarter 2026 revenue comes in below the $5.65 billion floor guided on 22 July 2026. It also breaks if the fourth-quarter revenue guide has a low end below $5.65 billion, or if revenue rises while guided gross margin falls from the third quarter, since that would show the price increases are not reaching profit. On price, a weekly close below $272, under the 1 October 2026 close and near the 50-day average, would show the market rejecting the recovery story.

The case strengthens if the fourth-quarter guide sits above the third-quarter range with higher gross margin and the shares hold that result after the report, unlike after 22 July 2026.

What it trades with

Texas Instruments trades with the analog and embedded chip group, including Analog Devices, Microchip, NXP and onsemi, because they share industrial and automotive end markets. Its report often sets the read for those peers in the same season. The data-center power exposure adds some sensitivity to AI infrastructure spending news. The high trailing multiple also leaves the shares exposed to moves in Treasury yields that reprice long-duration earnings across semiconductors.