The model's read, dated.

Neutral

The market regime ended the week at neutral, the close-of-day read from the last trading session, up from the prior risk-off call. The index is strong and the average stock is not. SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, closed at 778.51, which is 7.1% above its 200-day exponential…

Neutral

Market breadth climbed back over the 40% line. In the close-of-day breadth reading, 398 of 978 names closed above their own 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a short-term trend line. That matters because 40% is the threshold below which the market is classed as risk-off. With the typical…

Risk-off

The 2-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points week over week, the largest weekly move among the rate and credit readings, while the 10-year yield did not move. This suggests bond investors lowered their expected path for policy rates over the next two years. That shift did not reach long-term…

Risk-off

The high-yield credit spread narrowed 21 basis points week over week, the largest weekly move in the rate and credit readings. This suggests bond investors grew less worried about corporate defaults. That easing in credit did not reach the average stock. The close-of-day breadth reading counts 348…

Risk-off

Nothing moved enough to change the call, but breadth is now close to the line that holds it. Breadth here means 387 of 979 names above their own 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a short-term trend line. That is 39.5%, just under the 40% threshold that keeps the read at risk-off. Breadth is…

Risk-off

Lending to the weakest companies got more expensive again. The high-yield credit spread is the extra yield junk-rated borrowers pay over Treasuries. It widened 17 basis points in the week to 2 October, according to Federal Reserve (FRED) data. That was the largest weekly move among the rate and…

Risk-off

The close-of-day market read on Friday stayed risk-off, unchanged from the prior read, because too few stocks are in uptrends, even though the index itself is not falling. Breadth sets the call. The regime rules turn risk-off whenever breadth is under 40%, so the call holds regardless of the index…

Risk-off

Lenders to the weakest companies pulled back hard this week. The high-yield credit spread, the extra yield that junk-rated borrowers pay over Treasuries, widened 31 basis points in the week to 1 October, according to Federal Reserve (FRED) data. That was the largest move among the rate and credit…

Risk-off

Real borrowing costs rose. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points in the week to 30 September, and 10 of those came through the real rate, with only 2 from inflation expectations (FRED). That is tightening in real terms, which weighs most on companies that depend on cheap financing.…

Risk-off

High-yield spreads widened 28bps week over week to 3.08% (FRED, as of 29 September 2026). Credit markets are demanding more compensation for default risk while the VIX still sits in its calm band, so the credit market and equity options are pricing different risk levels. The rate complex adds to…

Risk-off

Credit repricing leads today: FRED reports a 29bps weekly increase in high-yield spreads through 28 September 2026, indicating higher compensation for credit risk despite calm equity volatility. The measured change is week over week; the data do not establish a same-day move. Index-level resilience…

Risk-off

High-yield credit spreads widened 25bps week over week in the 25 September FRED reading, indicating higher required compensation for credit risk despite calm equity volatility. The accompanying rise in real Treasury yields supports an inference of tighter financing conditions; these are weekly…

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-off

Risk-off — the model's close-of-day read. VIX 17.2 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 36.4% (356/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (deteriorating — most names below their 50-day EMA). SPY closed 757.42 — +5.2% vs its 200-EMA (719.82). Regime flipped to risk-off from the prior neutral read. The model…

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

Neutral is the model’s latest close-of-day regime read, its first neutral print and a flip from risk-off, with mixed breadth and a calm VIX of 15.84. Only 41.8% of scanned US stocks (409 of 978) stood above their 50-day average. SPY closed at 764.14, above its 200-EMA of 718.80; the distance was…

Neutral

Higher real yields are the main change this week: FRED records a 12bps weekly increase through 10 September 2026, implying a tougher discount-rate benchmark for equity valuations. That valuation pressure is an inference; the measured change covers a week and does not establish what moved during…

Risk-off

The real 10Y rate rose 3bps week over week through 9 September 2026, increasing the inflation-adjusted rate against which equity valuations are assessed. This is the clearest valuation headwind in the rate data; whether equities respond remains unresolved. FRED’s weekly changes do not establish…

Neutral

The 2Y Treasury yield rose 5bps week over week in FRED’s 8 September 2026 observation, outpacing the 10Y increase of 3bps and leaving a flatter yield curve. The measured move concentrates rate pressure at the shorter maturity; it does not establish a change in policy expectations. These…

Neutral

The 10Y Treasury yield rose 5bps week over week in FRED’s 4 September 2026 reading, implying a higher discount-rate hurdle for future earnings. The measured composition limits that inference: breakeven inflation rose 4bps against a 1bp increase in the real yield, so the move was predominantly…

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

The regime read is neutral, unchanged from the prior call. Nothing in the underlying inputs argues for a different label. VIX closed the week at 14.53 — calm by any reading. SPY finished at 770.18 against a 200-EMA of 716.97, +7.4% above trend. That combination normally reads as risk-on, and the…

Neutral

Every basis point of this week's 10Y rise was inflation compensation: the breakeven added 4bps while the real 10Y held flat at 2.42%, so the long end repriced without adding any pressure to the rate that discounts back-loaded earnings. The front end contributed nothing — the 2Y was unchanged on the…

Neutral

the one channel that could have cushioned higher discount rates leaned the same way instead. The composition of the nominal move is the second thing worth flagging: 3bps of the 10Y's rise came from the real rate and 3bps from the breakeven, an even split that hands half the move to added inflation…

Neutral

The front end took the week's largest move: the 2Y added 19bps to 4.39%, well clear of the 3.63% Fed Funds level stamped 1 August 2026, which keeps the move a repricing of the expected path rather than a response to a delivered one. The 10Y rose 12bps behind it, so the curve compressed rather than…

Neutral

Every maturity on the sheet sold off this week and the front end led it: the 2Y added 15bps to 4.34%, the largest single change in this block, with the 10Y up 9bps behind it. Because duration moved alongside the front end instead of sitting still, the 10Y–2Y spread gave back only 6bps and still…

Neutral

The 2Y added 10bps on the week to 4.34% while the 10Y gave back 1bp, putting the entire week's rate move at the front end and taking 11bps out of the 10Y–2Y spread. At 0.39% the curve is still positive, but the flattening came from the short end selling off while duration sat still. The 10Y's 1bp…

Neutral

Neutral — as of the last close. The latest regime read is neutral, the first neutral print, a flip from risk-on — the close-of-day call from the last session, carried into a closed weekend. The supporting prints, all as given by the model: VIX 14.43, tagged calm. SPY 769.28 against a 200-EMA of…

Neutral

High yield tightened 7bps on the week to 2.63%, the largest single move anywhere among the readings we track and the one that carries the most information: credit is the channel that typically deteriorates ahead of equity, and it moved the other way. The 10Y matched that magnitude, and the…

Risk-on

Seven of the eight basis points that left the 10Y this week left the real rate rather than inflation compensation — the nominal settled at 4.66% while the breakeven gave up 1bp, holding the real 10Y at 2.33%. That decomposition eases the discount rate for long-duration equity without marking down…

Risk-on

The week's rate move came out of the long end: the 10Y gave up 5bps to 4.64% against 2bps at the 2Y, flattening the 10Y–2Y spread 3bps to 0.47%. The front end barely participated, so this reads as a duration bid and not a repricing of the policy path. The composition matters more than the size —…

Risk-on

High-yield spreads tightened 4bps on the week to 2.69%, and the credit widening the 24 August 2026 entry flagged as the one input pulling against the classification did not extend into a third print — the sequence that would have made credit directional is retired rather than confirmed, and the…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 21 August 2026, three days back. This is consecutive risk-on read #14 in the journal. VIX at 15.85 sits in the calm band, higher than the prior level's reading but not out of it. Breadth reads 59.2% of the universe…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's latest read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior call. The inputs behind it: VIX at 15.13 (calm), breadth at 59.1% of names above their 50-day EMA (576 of 974, classed healthy but unconfirmed), and SPY closing at 765.64 against a 200-EMA of 711.45 +7.6%…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 20 August 2026, one session back. This is consecutive risk-on read #13 in the journal, a run that began 30 July 2026. VIX at 15.13 sits in the calm band. Breadth reads 59.1% of the universe (576/974) above its 50-day EMA,…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 19 August 2026, one session back. This is consecutive risk-on read #12 in the journal, a run dating from 30 July 2026. Breadth reads 55.6% of the universe (542/974) above its 50-day EMA, inside the healthy but marginal…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 14 August 2026, five sessions back. This is consecutive risk-on read #11 in the journal. Breadth reads 61.6% of the universe (600/974) above its 50-day EMA still scoring healthy, but a lower share and a smaller count than…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's latest read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior read. That call rests on three measured inputs rather than a narrative: VIX at 14.25, classified calm; breadth at 70.8% of the universe above its 50-day EMA (690 of 975), classified healthy; and SPY closing…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 13 August 2026. This is consecutive risk-on read #10 in the journal. Breadth extended higher: 70.8% of the universe (690/975) trades above its 50-day EMA, a larger count than the prior read and scoring healthy. SPY closed…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 12 August 2026. This is consecutive risk-on read #9 in the journal. Breadth turned up: 70.0% of the universe (683/975) trades above its 50-day EMA, a higher count than the prior read and still scoring healthy. SPY closed…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 11 August 2026. This is consecutive risk-on read #8 in the journal, a run that began 30 July 2026. Breadth edged up: 66.7% of the universe (650/975) trades above its 50-day EMA, a higher count than the prior read and still…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 10 August 2026. This is consecutive risk-on read #7 in the journal, running since 30 July 2026. Breadth gave back part of the prior recovery: 66.5% of the universe (648/975) trades above its 50-day EMA, down from the prior…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 7 August 2026. This is the sixth consecutive risk-on read in the journal (n=6). Breadth gave back ground: 67.3% of the universe (656/974) trades above its 50-day EMA, below the prior count but still scoring healthy. SPY…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's latest read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior read. Nothing in the underlying inputs argues with it. VIX closed at 14.90 calm. Breadth is 69.4% of scanned US stocks above their 50-day average (676 of 974), which is healthy participation rather than a…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 6 August 2026. This is the fifth consecutive risk-on read in the journal (n=5), since 30 July 2026. Breadth extended its gain: 69.4% of the universe (676/974) sits above its 50-day EMA, scoring healthy and roughly four…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 4 August 2026. This is the fourth consecutive risk-on read in the journal (n=4), since 30 July 2026. Breadth slipped: 65.3% of the universe (636/974) sits above its 50-day EMA, down from 69.2% but still scoring healthy.…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the same regime as the prior published entry of 3 August 2026. This is the third consecutive risk-on read in the journal (n=3), since 30 July 2026. The internals firmed rather than merely held. Breadth rose to 69.2% (675/975) above the 50-day EMA, up from 622 names, and…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the second consecutive risk-on print since 30 July 2026, matching the prior published entry. Breadth rose to 63.8% (622/975) above the 50-day EMA, scored healthy, and the count moved up rather than down. Price extended: SPY closed 757.72, +8.0% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's latest read is risk-on, its first risk-on print, a flip from neutral. That flip rests on three measured inputs, not on a narrative: SPY closed at 746.79 against a 200-EMA of 700.92, putting the index +6.5% above trend; breadth sits at 59.6% of scanned US…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's read, the first risk-on print and a flip from the prior published entry of 29 July 2026, which printed neutral. Breadth rose to 60.4% (589/975) above the 50-day EMA, which the model scores healthy rather than healthy but unconfirmed. That upgrade, with VIX dropping into the…

Neutral

Neutral is the model's read, the first neutral print and a flip from the risk-on call of the prior published entry of 28 July 2026. Breadth is the load-bearing input: 58.8% (573/975) of the universe trades above its 50-day EMA, which the model scores healthy but marginal. SPY closed 729.57, +4.3%…

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's read, matching the prior published entry of 27 July 2026. Breadth did the work: 63.8% (622/975) of the universe sits above its 50-day EMA, up from the prior session's read, and firmly out of marginal territory. SPY closed 740.79, +6.0% over its 200-EMA of 698.99. Rates eased…

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model held risk-on for a second consecutive print, since 24 July 2026. Internals carried it. Breadth widened to 62.6% (610/975) above the 50-day EMA, up into healthy territory from the healthy but unconfirmed 58.0% of the prior print. SPY closed 738.85, +5.8% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The regime read is risk-on, the first risk-on print, a flip from neutral at the prior close-of-day. The upgrade came despite rates, not because of them. VIX sits at 18.58 (elevated), a touch lower than the prior session's 18.70. HY credit spread is 2.77% (week over…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the first risk-on print, a flip from neutral, the model's call one day earlier on 23 July 2026. The flip did not come from the vol side: VIX sits at 18.58, still elevated and barely eased from the prior session. SPY closed 738.90, +5.9% over its 200-EMA of 697.79, still stretched to the…

Neutral

Neutral, the first neutral read in the journal, a flip from the risk-on read of 07-22. The vol side turned against the equity block: VIX rose into the elevated band at 18.70, leaving the calm zone it held the prior session and thinning the cushion that band had allowed. Breadth eased to 54.4%…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, consecutive print #23 in the journal, risk-on since 18 June 2026 and a continuation of the 07-21 read. The equity internals were mixed under it. VIX eased to 16.64, in the calm band and further below the ~18 gate than a session earlier, widening the cushion. Breadth thinned to 57.9%…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, consecutive print #22 in the journal since 18 June 2026 and a continuation of the 07-20 read. The internals firmed under it. VIX eased to 17.05, into the calm band and back beneath the ~18 gate rather than sitting above it, restoring the cushion the prior session lacked. Breadth…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, consecutive print #21 in the journal and a continuation of the 07-17 read. VIX printed 18.65, elevated and just above the ~18 gate, a touch lower than the prior session's 18.77. Breadth came in at 57.1% (557/975) above the 50-day EMA a majority, but a marginal one that thinned from…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day call is risk-on, holding from the prior week with no flip in between. The internals back it, if less firmly. VIX printed 18.77, elevated and up from the prior session. Breadth is healthy but marginal at 59.9% of names above their 50-day EMA…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, consecutive print #20 in the journal and a continuation of the 07-16 read. VIX rose to 18.77, sitting just above the ~18 gate and elevated against the prior session's calm read. Breadth slipped to 59.9% (584/975) above the 50-day EMA, a healthy but marginal majority that lost better…

Risk-on

Risk-on carries, print #19 in the journal and one session on from the 07-15 read. VIX rose to 16.73, still beneath the ~18 gate but with less cushion than yesterday's calmer print. Breadth reads 64.4% (628/975) above the 50-day EMA, a healthy majority that improved by 3.5 points. SPY closed 750.87,…

Risk-on

Risk-on carries, print #18 in the journal and one session on from yesterday's read. VIX sits at 15.67, inside the calm band and easing from 16.50, which widens the cushion beneath the ~18 gate. Breadth reads 60.9% (594/975) above the 50-day EMA, a healthy majority that eased only marginally. SPY…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, print #17 in the journal and one session on from yesterday's read. VIX eased to 16.50, deeper into the calm band. Breadth reads 61.7% (602/976) above the 50-day EMA, still a healthy majority though a shade lighter than the prior 62.2%. SPY closed 751.94, +8.3% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

Risk-on carries, print #16 in the journal and a continuation of the 10 July 2026 read. Vol stays calm but firmer: VIX 17.16, up from 15.03 and toward the upper end of the calm band. Breadth reads 62.2% (608/977) above the 50-day EMA, a healthy majority. SPY closed 749.13, +8.0% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior week's call. The tape didn't argue with it. VIX sat at 15.03 calm. Breadth stayed healthy, with 62.5% of names (611/977) holding above their 50-day EMA. SPY closed the week at 754.94, running +9.0%…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, the fifteenth consecutive read (n=15) and a one-day continuation of the 9 July 2026 print. Vol stays calm: VIX 15.03, inside the quiet band. Breadth firmed to 62.5% (611/977), a comfortable majority above the 50-day EMA and wider than the prior session's read. SPY closed 754.94,…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, the fourteenth consecutive read (n=14) and a one-day continuation of the 8 July 2026 print. Vol is calm: VIX 15.84, still inside the quiet zone. Breadth reads 61.0% (596/977), a healthy majority above the 50% line and clear of the marginal zone, closer to a robust participation…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, the thirteenth consecutive read (n=13) and a direct continuation of Tuesday's print on 7 July 2026. Vol sits calm: VIX 16.90, a touch higher than Tuesday but still in the quiet zone. Breadth reads 58.2% (569/977), healthy but marginal, thinner than Tuesday's read though still clear…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds, the twelfth consecutive read (n=12) and a direct continuation of Monday's print on 6 July 2026. Vol ticked up: VIX rose to 16.13, still inside the calm zone. Breadth narrowed to 62.5% (611/977), still a healthy majority well clear of the 50% line. SPY closed 747.77, +8.3% over its…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints again, the eleventh consecutive read (n=11) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 2 July 2026, four days back. Vol stayed planted: VIX at 15.57, a touch lower and still in the calm zone. Breadth broadened to 64.7% (632/977), comfortably on the healthy side of the 50%…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior print. The internals back it: VIX sits at 16.15 (calm), breadth is 63.0% of names above their 50-day EMA (616/977, healthy), and SPY closed at 744.86 +8.1% over its 200-EMA at 689.23. This is a tape…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints again, the tenth consecutive read (n=10) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 1 July 2026. Vol eased: VIX slipped to 16.15, settling deeper in the calm zone. Breadth improved to 63.0% (616/977), widening further on the healthy side of the 50% line. SPY closed 744.86,…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints again, the ninth consecutive read (n=9) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 30 June 2026. Vol ticked up: VIX edged to 16.59, still well inside calm. Breadth slipped to 61.0% (596/977), still a healthy read but a touch thinner than the last print. SPY closed 745.66,…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints again, the eighth consecutive read (n=8) and a continuation of the prior published entry on 29 June 2026. Vol eased this session: VIX slipped to 16.45 and stays flagged calm. Breadth stayed broad at 62.0% (606/977), a clean healthy read. SPY closed 746.65, +8.5% over its 200-EMA of…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints for the seventh consecutive read (n=7), holding the call from the prior published entry on 26 June 2026. The rate complex did the work this session: the 10Y fell 8bps to 4.38% and the 2Y dropped 12bps to 4.07%, the front end leading the way down, so the 10Y–2Y spread widened 4bps to…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's latest read is risk-on, unchanged from the prior call this is the close-of-day print from the last trading session and the one carrying into the weekend. The internals back it. SPY closed at 729.35, sitting +6.2% above its 200-EMA of 686.68, and breadth…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints for the sixth consecutive read (n=6), continuing the prior published entry on 25 June 2026. The rate complex did the heavy lifting this session: the 10Y shed 6bps to 4.40%, the 2Y dropped 10bps to 4.09%, and with the front end falling faster the 10Y–2Y spread widened 4bps to 0.31%, a…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints for the fifth consecutive read (n=5), in place since 18 June 2026, continuing the prior published entry on 24 June 2026. The vol tape didn't help this session: VIX firmed to 18.89, still carrying the model's elevated tag and a notch hotter. Breadth above the 50-day EMA improved to…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints for the fourth consecutive read (n=4), since 18 June 2026, continuing the prior published entry on 23 June 2026. The wrinkle this read is a split tape: VIX at 18.63 carries the model's elevated tag, yet breadth above the 50-day EMA broadened to 59.1% (577/977), healthy but marginal…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds for the third consecutive print (n=3, since 18 June 2026), a continuation of the prior published read on 22 June 2026. VIX sits at 19.49, elevated, up from calm on the prior session. Breadth above the 50-day EMA reads 55.7% (544/977), healthy only at the margin. SPY closed 733.62,…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints a second straight time (n=2), a continuation of the prior published read on 18 June 2026. This week added a little friction to last read. VIX rose to 17.28 but kept its calm tag. Breadth thinned marginally to 55.6% (543/977) above the 50-day EMA, still only healthy at the margin. SPY…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day read is risk-on, the first risk-on print and a flip up from neutral the prior session. What lifted it was not the rates curve. The 2Y Treasury jumped to 4.20% (week over week +11bps) while the 10Y barely moved at 4.49% (week over week +1bps),…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints for the first time (n=1), a flip from neutral that the model logged on 18 June 2026, breaking from the prior published neutral read on 17 June 2026. The flip came on firmer footing. VIX fell to 16.40 and regained its calm tag, no longer reading elevated. Breadth widened to 56.2%…

Neutral

Neutral prints for the first time, a flip from risk-on that breaks from the prior published read on 16 June 2026. This was not the quiet kind of continuation: vol and breadth both gave ground. VIX sits at 18.44, up from calm into elevated. Breadth reads 53.5% (523/977) above the 50-day EMA,…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints a fourth straight time (n=4), continuing the flip the model logged on 11 June 2026 and matching the prior published read on 15 June 2026. The internals held. VIX ticked up to 16.41 but holds its calm tag. Breadth deepened to 64.1% (627/978) above the 50-day EMA, still healthy and a…

Risk-on

Risk-on prints a third straight time (n=3), extending the flip the model logged on 11 June 2026. The signal has only firmed. VIX fell to 16.20 and holds the calm tag, while breadth deepened to 63.7% (623/978) above the 50-day EMA, healthy and broader still. SPY closed 754.75, +10.3% over its…

Risk-on

Risk-on — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day read is risk-on, the second consecutive risk-on print, holding since 11 June 2026. The internals back the call rather than contradict it. Breadth sits at 60.5% of names above their 50-day EMA (592 of 978): healthy participation, not a…

Risk-on

Risk-on holds for a second consecutive print (n=2), a continuation of the flip the model logged on 11 June 2026 rather than a fresh signal. This time the two legs line up: breadth pushed to 60.5% (592/978) above the 50-day EMA, healthy and broader than the participation that carried the initial…

Risk-on

Risk-on is the model's authoritative close, a flip from the neutral read published yesterday (10 June 2026). Breadth did the work: 57.1% (558/978) of the tape now holds above its 50-day EMA, up from under the 50% line in the prior session. Vol eased alongside it: VIX at 19.44 is still elevated but…

Neutral

Neutral is the model's authoritative close, the first neutral print, a flip from yesterday's risk-on call (9 June 2026). VIX at 22.22 is elevated and up on the session, enough to keep a fear premium bid into the tape without tipping into panic. Breadth sits at 48.9% (478/978) above the 50-day EMA,…

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's authoritative close, and the first risk-on print, a flip from neutral yesterday (8 June 2026). Volatility is the line to watch: VIX at 19.87 is elevated and higher on the session, high enough to keep a fear premium in the tape but short of a panic. Breadth sits at 55.3%…

Neutral

Neutral — the model's authoritative close, holding last Friday's read (5 June 2026). Underneath, volatility is still the story: VIX at 18.92 remains elevated, though it eased from the prior neutral print, which also sat on elevated vol. So this is not a quiet narrowing of participation; the fear…

Neutral

Neutral — as of the last close. The model's close-of-day read is neutral, its first neutral print, a flip from risk-on. That downgrade came as volatility woke up, which is the part worth sitting with: VIX printed an elevated 21.51, up from 15.40 the session before. The S&P closed at 737.45, +8.6%…

Neutral

Neutral — the model's authoritative close-of-day read, the first neutral print, a flip down from yesterday's risk-on. VIX jumped to 21.51 (elevated, a fear bid) from yesterday's calm 15.40, so volatility is part of the downgrade. The other tell is participation: breadth slipped to 52.6% (514/978)…

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 15.40 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 61.8% (604/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 756.97 — +11.6% vs its 200-EMA (678.23). Regime held at risk-on for a fourth consecutive print, unchanged from the prior…

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.76 (calm, vol easing). Breadth 56.8% (556/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy but marginal — just over half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 742.71 — +11.0% vs its 200-EMA (669.21). Regime flipped to risk-on from the…

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

Neutral — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.26 (calm, vol easing). Breadth 54.3% (531/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 748.10 — +12.2% vs its 200-EMA (666.74). Regime held at neutral, matching the prior neutral…

Neutral

Neutral — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.87 (calm, vol easing). Breadth 53.4% (522/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 742.30 — +12.0% vs its 200-EMA (662.99). Regime flipped to neutral from the prior risk-on read,…

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.38 (elevated, vol firming). Breadth 58.8% (576/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy but marginal — just under three in five names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 739.20 — +11.7% vs its 200-EMA (661.94). The model reads risk-on:…

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.39 (calm, vol firming slightly). Breadth 63.9% (624/977) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 733.77 — +10.6% vs its 200-EMA (663.32). Regime flipped to risk-on from the prior neutral read, its first…

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

Neutral — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.29 (elevated). Breadth 56.6% (554/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 718.09 — +8.5% vs its 200-EMA (661.88). Regime flipped to neutral from the prior risk-on read, the first…

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Neutral

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

Risk-on

No written read that day — the close-of-day regime only.

escalating stagflation scare — Feb CPI came in benign (+0.3% MoM, +2.4% YoY, core +0.2%/+2.5%) and the market initially rallied. Then it reversed hard as oil surged on fresh Hormuz escalation: three commercial vessels attacked off Iran's coast Wednesday, with Iran's military threatening $200/bbl.…

binary-event stagflation scare — a day the market won't forget. Brent crude swung from $119.50 intraday highs to $87.80 (−11.3%) after Trump threatened Iran "20x harder" if Hormuz were blocked. Not a ceasefire the war rhetoric intensified but the geopolitical noise created a binary pivot point. The…

Risk-off

Risk-off — the model's close-of-day read (flagged at the premarket scan). The prior regime (Mar 6) was a stagflation scare driven by Brent at $89–90, a −92K nonfarm-payrolls miss, and the Hormuz shutdown carrying into the new week. The tape stayed defensive into the close; leadership sat in…