Stock market on Friday, 13 November 2026

Market regime

The 2-year Treasury yield rose 35 basis points (bp) in the week to 12 November 2026, outpacing the 24 bp rise in the 10-year yield, according to Federal Reserve data. This points to bond markets pricing tighter policy for longer. None of that reached the inputs that set the call. Breadth is still the one input short of its line: 568 of 998 stocks closed above their own 50-day average, under the 60% line the regime rules require for a risk-on call. The S&P 500 (via SPY) closed 3.1% above its 200-day average, well clear of the 0.5% the rules ask for. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) sits in its elevated band, between 18 and 28, and below the 28 risk-off trigger. The close-of-day read is neutral.

Key numbers

Levels at the 13 November 2026 close, except the 10Y Treasury, the 2Y Treasury, the real 10Y rate, the credit spread and Fed funds as of 12 November 2026. Weekly and monthly figures name their period.

Regime assessment

The read describes an index in a long-term uptrend that the broad market has not yet confirmed. With the index well above its long-term trend and participation short of the risk-on line, gains lean more on large companies than on the average stock. Elevated volatility means options markets are pricing wider daily swings than they would in the calm band.

Rates, credit and labor figures are context for the read; the regime rules do not use them. The real 10-year rate rose 23 bp in the week to 12 November 2026. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate added only 1 bp in the week to 13 November 2026. Nearly all of the climb in long yields came from real rates rather than inflation expectations. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed 8 bp to 0.27% as of 13 November 2026. The high-yield credit spread narrowed 22 bp on the week to 3.20% on 12 November 2026, so credit markets show no strain despite higher yields. Initial jobless claims rose 9K to 200K in the week ending 7 November 2026, according to Labor Department data.

The view is that breadth decides the next change to the call, because the S&P 500 and the VIX both sit well away from their trigger lines. That view is wrong if the call next changes because the S&P 500 closes more than 2% below its 200-day average, or the VIX rises above 28, before breadth rises above 60% or falls under 40%.

What would change the call

Neutral: no risk-off trigger is met, and risk-on needs breadth above 60% (now 56.9%).

It turns risk-off if any one of these happens:

• The S&P 500 closes more than 2% below its 200-day average (now +3.1%).
• Breadth falls under 40% (now 56.9%).
• VIX rises above 28 (now 19.3).

What to watch

• The next breadth reading. A reading above 60% (now 56.9%) would make the call risk-on; one under 40% would make it risk-off.
• The next VIX close. It shows whether volatility holds in its elevated band; a close above 28 would trigger a risk-off call.
• Treasury yields over the coming week. They show whether the climb in the 2-year yield extends or reverses.
• The next weekly jobless claims release. It tests whether claims hold near 200K after the week ending 7 November 2026.

Status

Neutral as of 13 November 2026; the second consecutive neutral read, following the 12 November 2026 entry.