Regimes
The market's weather system.
A regime isn't a prediction and it isn't a trade. It's a daily read of the market backdrop, set by fixed rules from the S&P 500's trend, market breadth and volatility, and every journal entry and dossier is written against it. It shapes how the research reads a setup; no rule acts on it: Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
What the read is made of
- Trend
- Where the S&P 500 stands against its 200-day average, and for how long.
- Breadth
- How many stocks are in their own uptrends — a narrow market is a fragile one.
- Volatility
- The VIX: calm, elevated or stressed.
Risk-on / recovery
Risk-on
The S&P 500 is above its trend, most stocks are in uptrends and volatility is contained.
The daily read when the S&P 500 closes more than 0.5% above its 200-day exponential average, more than 60% of the 1,000 most liquid US stocks close above their own 50-day average (or 55% to 60% with the index at least 5% above its average), and the VIX is below 28. Published as context on every journal entry and dossier. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Choppy / neutral
Neutral
The three inputs disagree: no clear call either way.
The read whenever neither risk-on nor risk-off applies, for example the index above its trend while fewer than 55% of stocks are in uptrends. Published as context. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Risk-off / stress
Risk-off
The index has broken below its trend, most stocks are falling, or volatility is high.
The daily read when the S&P 500 closes more than 2% below its 200-day exponential average, fewer than 40% of the 1,000 most liquid US stocks close above their 50-day average, or the VIX is above 28. Published as context. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
Glossary entry →Risk-off, sustained
The S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day average for ten sessions or more.
A risk-off read that has lasted: the index below its 200-day exponential average for at least ten consecutive sessions. Published as context.
Glossary entry →Common questions
- What is a market regime?
- A daily classification of market conditions: risk-on, neutral, risk-off, or risk-off sustained. It is not a price prediction; it is the backdrop the research is written against. FrontierPicks assigns one each trading day and records it on every journal entry.
- How does FrontierPicks classify the macro regime?
- By fixed rules from three inputs at each close: the S&P 500 against its 200-day exponential average, the share of the 1,000 most liquid US stocks above their own 50-day average, and the VIX. The read is taken 20 minutes after each close and published daily as context.
- What does a regime change actually do?
- It changes the backdrop every piece of research is written against: the journal, the macro view and every dossier. No rule acts on it; Claude sees the same three inputs when it decides the portfolio.
- Does a regime call predict the market?
- No. A regime is a read of current conditions, not a forecast. It describes the conditions the research is written against — not where prices go next.
Every journal entry records the regime call; the macro view expands it.