Regimes · the filter behind every position
The market's weather system.
A regime isn't a prediction and it isn't a trade. It's a filter — a daily read on the market that gates how aggressively the model treats every candidate setup. Each label maps to a precise set of risk settings. Here's the full taxonomy.
What every regime sets
- Buy-threshold
- How selective entries are. It climbs in stress regimes — only the cleanest setups clear it.
- Size-multiplier
- A scalar on every position size. Eased in risk-on, cut hard in risk-off — the same setup, sized smaller.
- Max-exposure
- The cap on total deployed capital. Tightens as the regime deteriorates.
- Cash-floor
- The minimum cash held. Raised defensively when the market turns hostile.
Risk-on / recovery
Risk-on
Risk-asset tailwind across credit + rates + breakevens.
The daily read when credit, rates and breakevens all lean toward risk assets. Published as context on every journal entry and dossier; it does not change how a theme-bet is sized — those rules are fixed in advance and mechanical.
Glossary entry →Healthy But Unconfirmed
Recovery from RISK-OFF without full risk-asset confirmation.
A transitional read — partial easing of RISK-OFF tightening. Sizing graduated, buy-threshold loosened in steps.
Glossary entry →Choppy / neutral
Choppy
Mixed signals, no directional conviction.
The default read when the signals disagree. Published as context; it changes what the research says, not how much the book holds.
Glossary entry →Risk-off / stress
Risk-off
Risk-asset headwind across the rate / credit / breadth complex.
The daily read when rates, credit and breadth lean against risk assets. Published as context; the one market gate on new theme-bets is separate and mechanical (SPY above its 200-day average on the weekly radar).
Glossary entry →Stagflation Scare — Binary Event
A single binary event is gating regime direction.
Used when one near-term event (CPI, NFP, Fed) will resolve regime ambiguity. A read on the tape, published as context until the event resolves.
Glossary entry →Stagflation Scare — Escalating
Inflation expectations rising into a slowing-growth read.
Inflation expectations rising into slowing growth: energy and materials read as the tailwind, long-duration names as the headwind. Published as context.
Glossary entry →Common questions
- What is a market regime?
- A regime is a daily classification of market conditions — risk-on, choppy/neutral, or risk-off — that gates how aggressively a strategy reads candidate setups. It is not a price prediction; it is a filter on risk-taking. FrontierPicks assigns one each trading day and records it on every journal entry.
- How does FrontierPicks classify the macro regime?
- FrontierPicks reads the rates, credit, breakevens and breadth complex. Each label (RISK-ON, CHOPPY, RISK-OFF, a healthy-but-unconfirmed recovery and the stagflation-fear states) is a read on that complex, published daily as context. It does not set position sizes: theme-bet sizing is fixed and exits are mechanical.
- What does a regime change actually do?
- It changes what the research says, not what the book holds. The daily journal, the macro view and every dossier are written against the active regime; sizing follows pre-registered mechanical rules the regime cannot alter, and the one market gate on new theme-bets is mechanical — the weekly radar triggers only with SPY above its 200-day average.
- Does a regime call predict the market?
- No. A regime is a read of current conditions, not a forecast. It describes the conditions the research is written against — not where prices go next, and not how much the book holds.
Every journal entry records the regime call; the weekly macro view expands it.