Scoreboard · as of
Every stock pick, graded against the S&P 500.
55 picks have closed since 1 October 2026; 21 beat the S&P 500 over the same days. 126 picks are open.
The rule
Written down on 1 October 2026, before any pick existed. Every eligible pick is counted; none is removed for how it turned out. The rule in full
- Which picks count
- Every dossier thesis staked at medium, high or supreme conviction.
- When a pick opens
- A pick opens at the close of the first trading day on which a published dossier states its thesis at medium, high or supreme conviction, from 1 October 2026, as long as that close is still above the thesis's own kill line. A stock has at most one open pick at a time. The conviction, the kill line and the thesis are frozen at that close.
- When it closes
- A pick closes at the first of: a close through the kill line frozen at open (daily or weekly, as the thesis states; a weekly close is the last trading day of the week); conviction cut below medium; or the 63rd trading day after it opened. Once a pick has closed, the next time the research states a fresh medium-or-higher thesis on that stock, a new pick opens.
- How it is graded
- A closed pick beat the market if its total return, dividends included, was higher than the S&P 500's (SPY) over exactly the same days; otherwise it trailed. Every eligible pick is in the record.
The 20 open picks closest to their kill line
Every open pick is above its kill line on the last close. Showing 20 of 126, closest to the line first.
How to read this
The red mark is the kill line, frozen the day the pick opened: the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is the last close. A dot left of the mark has closed below the line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear. The line under each name is the pick's return since it opened, next to the S&P 500's over the same days. How a pick is graded
| Pick | Conviction | Opened | Return | S&P 500 | Difference | Kill line | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. | Medium | −1.3% | +1.9% | −3.2 pp | $438.00 (weekly close) | +3.5% | |
| GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | Medium | −0.1% | +1.9% | −2.1 pp | $850.00 (daily close) | +5.3% | |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | Medium | −6.5% | +1.9% | −8.4 pp | $279.00 (weekly close) | +5.6% | |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | Medium | −6.3% | +1.9% | −8.2 pp | $301.00 (weekly close) | +5.9% | |
| ADPTAdaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Medium | −3.2% | +1.9% | −5.1 pp | $25.00 (weekly close) | +6.0% | |
| CVXChevron Corporation | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $200.00 (daily close) | +6.0% | |
| CLSCelestica, Inc. | Medium | −5.4% | +0.5% | −5.8 pp | $340.00 (daily close) | +6.5% | |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | Medium | −1.6% | +1.9% | −3.5 pp | $1,665.00 (weekly close) | +6.9% | |
| SNXTD SYNNEX Corporation | Medium | −1.8% | −0.1% | −1.7 pp | $255.00 (weekly close) | +7.2% | |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | Medium | −6.2% | +1.9% | −8.1 pp | $958.00 (weekly close) | +7.4% | |
| SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | Medium | +2.2% | +0.5% | +1.7 pp | $70.97 (weekly close) | +7.7% | |
| NEOGNeogen Corporation | Medium | −3.2% | +1.9% | −5.1 pp | $11.00 (weekly close) | +7.7% | |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | Medium | +4.3% | +1.9% | +2.4 pp | $495.63 (weekly close) | +8.0% | |
| SOPHSOPHiA GENETICS SA | Medium | −7.7% | +1.9% | −9.6 pp | $6.84 (weekly close) | +8.3% | |
| MSMorgan Stanley | Medium | +1.1% | +1.9% | −0.8 pp | $175.00 (daily close) | +8.6% | |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | Medium | +1.2% | +1.9% | −0.7 pp | $134.00 (daily close) | +8.7% | |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | Medium | +0.4% | +1.9% | −1.5 pp | $305.00 (daily close) | +9.2% | |
| RTXRTX Corporation | Medium | +0.5% | +1.9% | −1.4 pp | $170.00 (daily close) | +9.4% | |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | Medium | +4.0% | +1.9% | +2.1 pp | $321.00 (daily close) | +9.6% | |
| DCTHDelcath Systems, Inc. | Medium | −0.3% | +1.9% | −2.2 pp | $14.00 (weekly close) | +9.7% | |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | Medium | −3.3% | +0.2% | −3.5 pp | $250.00 (weekly close) | +10.1% | |
| TSSITSS, Inc. | Medium | −1.4% | +1.9% | −3.3 pp | $8.77 (weekly close) | +10.6% | |
| DXCMDexCom, Inc. | Medium | −3.2% | +0.5% | −3.7 pp | $76.00 (daily close) | +10.7% | |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $106.70 (weekly close) | +11.0% | |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | Medium | −4.2% | +1.9% | −6.1 pp | $456.00 (weekly close) | +11.2% |
Show all 126 open picks
| Pick | Conviction | Opened | Return | S&P 500 | Difference | Kill line | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSITInsight Enterprises, Inc. | Medium | +2.6% | +0.5% | +2.2 pp | $147.00 (weekly close) | +11.3% | |
| VEONVEON Ltd. ADS | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $69.00 (daily close) | +11.3% | |
| AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc. | Medium | −0.4% | +1.9% | −2.3 pp | $84.00 (weekly close) | +11.6% | |
| RNGRingcentral, Inc. | Medium | +0.3% | +0.5% | −0.2 pp | $71.00 (weekly close) | +11.6% | |
| ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation | Medium | +3.1% | +0.5% | +2.6 pp | $346.00 (daily close) | +11.9% | |
| FTKFlotek Industries, Inc. | Medium | −10.1% | +1.9% | −12.0 pp | $23.93 (weekly close) | +12.0% | |
| VICRVicor Corporation | Medium | −13.8% | +1.9% | −15.7 pp | $237.62 (weekly close) | +12.0% | |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $270.00 (daily close) | +12.1% | |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | Medium | +2.6% | +1.9% | +0.7 pp | $1,050.00 (daily close) | +12.3% | |
| HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | High | +3.3% | +1.9% | +1.4 pp | $98.00 (weekly close) | +12.7% | |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | Medium | +2.3% | +1.9% | +0.3 pp | $125.00 (daily close) | +12.7% | |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | Medium | +6.4% | +1.9% | +4.5 pp | $245.00 (daily close) | +12.8% | |
| LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc. | Medium | +4.3% | +1.9% | +2.4 pp | $11.00 (weekly close) | +12.9% | |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | High | −11.5% | +1.9% | −13.4 pp | $1,400.00 (weekly close) | +13.0% | |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | Medium | +7.3% | +1.9% | +5.4 pp | $520.00 (daily close) | +13.3% | |
| NBISNebius Group N.V. | Medium | −4.8% | +1.9% | −6.7 pp | $195.00 (weekly close) | +13.4% | |
| CLDTChatham Lodging Trust | Medium | +0.4% | +1.9% | −1.5 pp | $12.00 (weekly close) | +13.4% | |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | Medium | +0.9% | +1.9% | −1.0 pp | $250.00 (weekly close) | +13.5% | |
| ZLABZai Lab Limited | Medium | −2.0% | +1.9% | −3.9 pp | $22.00 (weekly close) | +13.6% | |
| RKLBRocket Lab Corporation | Medium | −3.2% | +1.9% | −5.1 pp | $60.00 (weekly close) | +13.7% | |
| SIBNSI-BONE, Inc. | Medium | +5.2% | +1.9% | +3.3 pp | $17.00 (weekly close) | +13.9% | |
| SGHTSight Sciences, Inc. | Medium | +3.9% | −0.1% | +3.9 pp | $7.80 (daily close) | +14.0% | |
| LTRXLantronix, Inc. | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $6.00 (daily close) | +14.2% | |
| TENTsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. | Medium | +0.2% | +0.5% | −0.3 pp | $45.00 (daily close) | +14.2% | |
| SIGSignet Jewelers Limited | Medium | +4.6% | +1.2% | +3.5 pp | $92.00 (daily close) | +14.4% | |
| SIMOSilicon Motion Technology Corporation | Medium | −4.1% | +1.9% | −6.0 pp | $230.00 (weekly close) | +14.7% | |
| CYRXCryoPort, Inc. | Medium | −0.1% | +1.9% | −2.0 pp | $15.12 (weekly close) | +14.7% | |
| ONONOn Holding AG | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $30.52 (daily close) | +15.0% | |
| OCCOptical Cable Corporation | Medium | −5.6% | −0.1% | −5.5 pp | $13.70 (daily close) | +15.3% | |
| NEONeoGenomics, Inc. | Medium | +2.4% | +0.2% | +2.2 pp | $14.16 (daily close) | +15.5% | |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | Medium | +10.0% | +1.9% | +8.1 pp | $180.18 (weekly close) | +16.0% | |
| AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc. | Medium | +2.9% | +1.9% | +1.0 pp | $14.19 (weekly close) | +16.3% | |
| PSXPhillips 66 | Medium | +5.3% | +1.9% | +3.4 pp | $239.00 (weekly close) | +16.4% | |
| FROGJFrog Ltd. | Medium | +4.8% | +1.9% | +2.9 pp | $87.60 (weekly close) | +16.7% | |
| CIENCiena Corporation | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $385.00 (daily close) | +16.8% | |
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Medium | +1.9% | +0.5% | +1.4 pp | $185.00 (weekly close) | +17.1% | |
| SMMTSummit Therapeutics Inc. | Medium | +5.4% | +1.9% | +3.5 pp | $15.00 (weekly close) | +17.3% | |
| TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd. | Medium | −5.2% | +1.9% | −7.1 pp | $195.00 (weekly close) | +17.3% | |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | Medium | +5.7% | +1.9% | +3.8 pp | $357.00 (daily close) | +17.3% | |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | Medium | +1.1% | +0.5% | +0.6 pp | $940.00 (daily close) | +17.4% | |
| FROFrontline Plc | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $47.73 (daily close) | +17.5% | |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | Medium | +3.4% | +1.9% | +1.5 pp | $233.88 (weekly close) | +17.6% | |
| QLYSQualys, Inc. | Medium | +1.9% | +0.5% | +1.4 pp | $172.00 (daily close) | +17.7% | |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | Medium | +9.0% | +1.9% | +7.1 pp | $165.00 (weekly close) | +18.0% | |
| BWLPBW LPG Limited | Medium | +0.9% | +1.9% | −1.0 pp | $22.00 (weekly close) | +18.2% | |
| HTFLHeartflow, Inc. | Medium | +1.7% | +1.9% | −0.2 pp | $42.00 (weekly close) | +18.4% | |
| CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc. | Medium | −2.4% | +1.9% | −4.3 pp | $29.00 (weekly close) | +18.7% | |
| PMTSCPI Card Group Inc. | Medium | +3.6% | +1.9% | +1.7 pp | $21.50 (weekly close) | +18.8% | |
| SSentinelOne, Inc. | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $22.00 (weekly close) | +19.4% | |
| COHUCohu, Inc. | Medium | −3.1% | +1.9% | −5.0 pp | $57.08 (weekly close) | +19.5% | |
| ECOOkeanis Eco Tankers Corp. | Medium | +5.1% | +0.5% | +4.6 pp | $77.90 (daily close) | +19.5% | |
| CMBTCMB.TECH NV | Medium | +5.0% | +1.9% | +3.1 pp | $17.20 (weekly close) | +19.8% | |
| CLMTCalumet, Inc. | Medium | +5.0% | +1.9% | +3.1 pp | $47.00 (weekly close) | +20.0% | |
| MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc. | Medium | −3.3% | +1.9% | −5.2 pp | $18.00 (weekly close) | +20.4% | |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | Medium | +6.0% | +1.9% | +4.1 pp | $180.00 (daily close) | +20.4% | |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | Medium | +7.9% | +1.9% | +6.0 pp | $305.84 (weekly close) | +20.6% | |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc. | Medium | +5.7% | +1.9% | +3.8 pp | $351.00 (daily close) | +20.8% | |
| MGNIMagnite, Inc. | Medium | −0.2% | +1.9% | −2.1 pp | $21.00 (weekly close) | +21.0% | |
| ZSZscaler, Inc. | Medium | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | $193.05 (weekly close) | +21.1% | |
| RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc. | Medium | −1.5% | +1.9% | −3.4 pp | $34.00 (weekly close) | +21.7% | |
| PUBMPubMatic, Inc. | Medium | −2.8% | +1.9% | −4.7 pp | $15.20 (weekly close) | +22.6% | |
| LPGDorian Lpg Ltd | High | +1.9% | +1.9% | −0.1 pp | $47.00 (weekly close) | +22.6% | |
| SILCSilicom Ltd | Medium | −4.4% | −0.1% | −4.4 pp | $48.00 (daily close) | +22.8% | |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | Medium | +6.2% | +1.9% | +4.3 pp | $352.36 (weekly close) | +23.1% | |
| IBRXImmunityBio, Inc. | Medium | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.8 pp | $8.50 (daily close) | +23.6% | |
| OMEROmeros Corporation | Medium | +7.4% | +1.9% | +5.5 pp | $16.00 (weekly close) | +23.9% | |
| AMPLAmplitude, Inc. | Medium | +5.3% | +0.5% | +4.8 pp | $12.60 (weekly close) | +24.4% | |
| CRSRCorsair Gaming, Inc. | Medium | −1.6% | +1.9% | −3.5 pp | $10.93 (weekly close) | +24.7% | |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | Medium | +10.3% | +1.9% | +8.4 pp | $40.09 (weekly close) | +24.9% | |
| VSTMVerastem, Inc. | Medium | +6.1% | +1.9% | +4.2 pp | $6.70 (weekly close) | +25.1% | |
| GTLBGitLab Inc. | Medium | +10.3% | +1.9% | +8.4 pp | $44.00 (weekly close) | +25.2% | |
| STLNStarling Oncology, Inc. | Medium | +6.7% | +1.9% | +4.8 pp | $5.25 (weekly close) | +26.3% | |
| SHOPShopify Inc. | Medium | +14.6% | +1.9% | +12.7 pp | $135.00 (daily close) | +26.6% | |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | Medium | +0.4% | +1.9% | −1.5 pp | $147.88 (weekly close) | +26.7% | |
| OPRTOportun Financial Corporation | Medium | +8.4% | +1.9% | +6.5 pp | $7.00 (weekly close) | +27.4% | |
| FPSForgent Power Solutions, Inc. | Medium | +2.7% | +0.5% | +2.2 pp | $31.35 (weekly close) | +27.7% | |
| PAYSPaysign, Inc. | Medium | +8.0% | +1.2% | +6.8 pp | $12.00 (weekly close) | +28.1% | |
| UUnity Software Inc. | Medium | +7.5% | +1.9% | +5.6 pp | $36.00 (weekly close) | +30.2% | |
| HAEHaemonetics Corporation | Medium | +13.7% | +1.9% | +11.8 pp | $91.00 (weekly close) | +30.4% | |
| DINOHF Sinclair Corporation | Medium | +7.6% | +1.9% | +5.7 pp | $93.00 (weekly close) | +30.4% | |
| IBTAIbotta, Inc. | Medium | +7.9% | +1.9% | +6.0 pp | $33.00 (weekly close) | +30.5% | |
| XMTRXometry, Inc. | Medium | +6.6% | +1.9% | +4.7 pp | $85.00 (weekly close) | +30.7% | |
| ALVOAlvotech | Medium | +2.9% | +1.9% | +0.9 pp | $4.40 (weekly close) | +31.4% | |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | Medium | −1.0% | +1.9% | −2.9 pp | $545.00 (weekly close) | +31.9% | |
| XGNExagen Inc. | Medium | −0.5% | +0.5% | −1.0 pp | $6.36 (weekly close) | +32.4% | |
| GMEGameStop Corp. Class A | Medium | +7.5% | +1.2% | +6.4 pp | $20.00 (daily close) | +32.8% | |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Medium | −1.2% | +1.9% | −3.1 pp | $456.00 (weekly close) | +33.4% | |
| BEBloom Energy Corporation | Medium | +1.1% | +1.9% | −0.9 pp | $210.00 (weekly close) | +33.6% | |
| AZTAAzenta, Inc. | Medium | +5.1% | +0.2% | +4.9 pp | $28.00 (weekly close) | +34.7% | |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | Medium | −0.7% | +1.9% | −2.6 pp | $170.00 (weekly close) | +34.9% | |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | Medium | +13.8% | +1.9% | +11.8 pp | $54.44 (weekly close) | +34.9% | |
| CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc. | Medium | +4.8% | +1.9% | +2.9 pp | $22.00 (weekly close) | +35.0% | |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | Medium | +5.8% | +1.2% | +4.7 pp | $7.00 (weekly close) | +37.6% | |
| IOVAIovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. | Medium | +2.7% | +1.9% | +0.8 pp | $10.25 (weekly close) | +42.6% | |
| CDNACareDx, Inc. | Medium | −3.9% | +1.9% | −5.8 pp | $44.00 (weekly close) | +44.7% | |
| RCELAvita Medical, Inc. | Medium | +10.0% | +1.9% | +8.1 pp | $9.00 (weekly close) | +46.8% | |
| ODDODDITY Tech Ltd. | Medium | +11.6% | +1.9% | +9.7 pp | $14.35 (weekly close) | +47.1% | |
| PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc. | Medium | +38.7% | +1.9% | +36.8 pp | $51.76 (daily close) | +47.4% | |
| NTSKNetskope, Inc. | High | +16.3% | +1.9% | +14.4 pp | $13.50 (weekly close) | +53.7% | |
| MANEVeradermics, Incorporated | Medium | +11.7% | +1.9% | +9.8 pp | $85.00 (weekly close) | +54.0% | |
| TEAMAtlassian Corporation | Medium | +8.9% | +1.9% | +7.0 pp | $130.00 (weekly close) | +59.1% |
Closed picks
Every closed pick, most recent first, with why it closed and how it did against the S&P 500 over the same days.
| Pick | Conviction | Opened | Closed | Why | Return | S&P 500 | Difference | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABSI Absci Corporation | Medium | Conviction cut | −5.5% | +1.9% | −7.4 pp | Trailed | ||
| ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −4.0% | +1.9% | −5.9 pp | Trailed | ||
| ASST Strive, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −7.7% | +1.9% | −9.6 pp | Trailed | ||
| ATI ATI Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +0.4% | +1.9% | −1.5 pp | Trailed | ||
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −3.1% | +1.9% | −5.0 pp | Trailed | ||
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −3.6% | +1.9% | −5.5 pp | Trailed | ||
| FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −6.3% | +1.9% | −8.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| GLW Corning Incorporated | Medium | Conviction cut | −2.3% | +1.9% | −4.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| MRNA Moderna, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +14.5% | +0.2% | +14.3 pp | Beat | ||
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +2.8% | +1.9% | +0.9 pp | Beat | ||
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +9.2% | +1.9% | +7.3 pp | Beat | ||
| PLSE Pulse Biosciences, Inc | Medium | Conviction cut | +8.0% | +1.9% | +6.1 pp | Beat | ||
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −7.8% | +1.9% | −9.7 pp | Trailed | ||
| TER Teradyne, Inc. | Medium | Kill line | −9.4% | +0.5% | −9.9 pp | Trailed | ||
| WT WisdomTree, Inc. | Medium | Kill line | −7.2% | −0.1% | −7.1 pp | Trailed | ||
| AEHR Aehr Test Systems | Medium | Conviction cut | −12.0% | +1.7% | −13.8 pp | Trailed | ||
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. FormFactor, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −5.8% | +1.7% | −7.5 pp | Trailed | ||
| PGEN Precigen, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −8.2% | +1.7% | −9.9 pp | Trailed | ||
| RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −5.5% | +1.7% | −7.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC | Medium | Conviction cut | +0.2% | −0.2% | +0.5 pp | Beat | ||
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −9.4% | +1.7% | −11.1 pp | Trailed | ||
| TXG 10x Genomics, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −14.3% | +1.7% | −16.0 pp | Trailed | ||
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | Medium | Conviction cut | −1.4% | −0.2% | −1.1 pp | Trailed | ||
| ILMN Illumina, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +2.9% | +2.0% | +1.0 pp | Beat | ||
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Medium | Conviction cut | −1.5% | +2.0% | −3.5 pp | Trailed | ||
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +7.1% | +2.0% | +5.1 pp | Beat | ||
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −0.6% | +1.4% | −2.0 pp | Trailed | ||
| EPRX Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −1.1% | +1.4% | −2.5 pp | Trailed | ||
| IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. | Medium | Conviction cut | +6.5% | +1.4% | +5.1 pp | Beat | ||
| NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence plc | Medium | Conviction cut | +0.5% | +1.4% | −0.9 pp | Trailed | ||
| NTAP NetApp, Inc. | High | Conviction cut | +4.0% | +1.4% | +2.6 pp | Beat | ||
| P Everpure, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +7.3% | +1.4% | +5.8 pp | Beat | ||
| RVTY Revvity, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +5.6% | +1.4% | +4.2 pp | Beat | ||
| SRZN Surrozen, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −2.9% | +1.4% | −4.3 pp | Trailed | ||
| TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation | Medium | Conviction cut | +9.0% | +1.4% | +7.6 pp | Beat | ||
| BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. | High | Conviction cut | 0.0% | +0.7% | −0.7 pp | Trailed | ||
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc | Medium | Conviction cut | −0.4% | +0.7% | −1.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. | Medium | Conviction cut | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.1 pp | Beat | ||
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares | Medium | Conviction cut | −3.3% | +0.7% | −4.0 pp | Trailed | ||
| DSGR Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. | Supreme | Conviction cut | +0.1% | +0.7% | −0.6 pp | Trailed | ||
| FRNM Freenome, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +4.3% | +0.7% | +3.6 pp | Beat | ||
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +1.9% | +0.7% | +1.1 pp | Beat | ||
| HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company | Medium | Conviction cut | +2.3% | +0.7% | +1.6 pp | Beat | ||
| HNI HNI Corporation | Medium | Conviction cut | +0.2% | +0.7% | −0.6 pp | Trailed | ||
| HZO MarineMax, Inc. | High | Conviction cut | 0.0% | +0.7% | −0.7 pp | Trailed | ||
| IREN IREN Limited | Medium | Conviction cut | +2.7% | +0.7% | +2.0 pp | Beat | ||
| ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation | High | Conviction cut | 0.0% | +0.7% | −0.7 pp | Trailed | ||
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +4.8% | +0.7% | +4.0 pp | Beat | ||
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −0.5% | +0.7% | −1.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) | Medium | Conviction cut | +7.3% | +0.7% | +6.6 pp | Beat | ||
| SSRM SSR Mining Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | −0.5% | +0.7% | −1.2 pp | Trailed | ||
| TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Medium | Kill line | −3.3% | +0.7% | −4.0 pp | Trailed | ||
| UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. | Medium | Conviction cut | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.8 pp | Beat | ||
| VRA Vera Bradley, Inc. | Medium | Conviction cut | +2.6% | +0.7% | +1.9 pp | Beat | ||
| VREX Varex Imaging Corporation | High | Conviction cut | −0.2% | +0.7% | −0.9 pp | Trailed |
By conviction
The same record split by how strongly the research stood behind each pick when it opened.
| Conviction | Open | Closed | Beat | Average vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme | 0 | 1 | 0 of 1 | −0.6 pp |
| High | 4 | 5 | 1 of 5 | −0.1 pp |
| Medium | 122 | 49 | 20 of 49 | −1.8 pp |
Common questions
- Which picks are on the scoreboard?
- Every dossier thesis staked at medium, high or supreme conviction from 1 October 2026 on. Low-conviction research is coverage, not a pick. Nothing is left out because of how it turned out.
- When does a pick close?
- At the first of three events: a close through the kill line frozen when the pick opened, a conviction cut below medium, or the 63rd trading session after it opened.
- What counts as beating the market?
- A closed pick beat the market if its total return, dividends included, exceeded the S&P 500's (SPY) over exactly the same days. Otherwise it trailed.
- Can a pick be changed after it opens?
- No. Its conviction, kill line and thesis are frozen at the opening close. If the research later changes its mind, that becomes a new pick once the old one has closed.