Skip to content
FrontierPicks

Scoreboard

Every pick, graded.

Each pick names the level that would prove it wrong before the outcome is known, then resolves in public: the thesis played out, or the line was hit and the pick closed. The score is whether the call held — not what it returned. Every resolution below carries the tier it staked, so the record is recomputable rather than asserted.

Calibration · 331 scored

331 resolutions · directional

Reliability

0.010

±7.9pp on 325 of 331

Picks resolved

332

331 scored · 160 reached · 172 closed on their line

Base rate

48%

picks reaching their case

Brier score

0.258

vs 0.250 for staking the base rate every time

The sample is 331 resolved picks. That clears the ~30-outcome line where a forecasting record stops being noise, and is nowhere near large enough to settle skill. An individual tier row with a handful of outcomes carries wide error bars, and discrimination between tiers needs a larger sample to measure precisely. The figures are published as computed and sharpen as the record extends.

What a Brier score of 0.26 means

A Brier score is the mean squared error between the probability a forecast stakes and what actually happened. Each conviction tier carries an implied probability of playing out — since 27 August 2026: SUPREME 85%, HIGH 70%, MEDIUM 55%, LOW 40%; picks staked earlier keep the v1 odds they published (90/75/60/50) — and every resolved pick is graded against the odds its tier published in advance.

Read on its own the headline number is close to uninformative, because most of it is not a property of the forecaster at all. Under the Murphy decomposition a Brier score separates into reliability (0.010), resolution (0.002) and uncertainty (0.250). That last term is fixed by the question set: binary equity picks resolving at a 48% base rate carry an irreducible 0.250, which is exactly what a forecaster scores by staking that base rate on every pick and nothing more. It is the reference this record is read against — not a floor. A Brier score's floor is 0, and 0.258 sitting above 0.250 is what the negative skill score below states as a ratio. Comparing the raw figure against scores from geopolitical or general-knowledge forecasting compares base rates, not forecasters.

The two terms that do measure this desk are reliability and resolution. Reliability is a mean-squared term: the published 0.0101 is a weighted mean of SQUARED tier gaps, so its own percentage-point reading is its square root — 10pp RMS across every scored tier — and never 0.0101 read as a gap. That aggregate is dominated by whichever tier has fewest resolutions, which is why it is reported per tier instead. Across the conviction tiers carrying a meaningful sample (325 of 331 resolutions), stated confidence has tracked realised outcomes to within 7.9 percentage points. The remaining 6 sit in the HIGH tier, which is 53.3 points off its stated odds — too few outcomes to read as a rate, and the reason the aggregate reliability term is not a percentage-point gap. Every tier is listed below with its own count. Resolution at 0.002 is the open question: the tiers are honest about their own odds but do not yet pull outcomes far apart from the base rate, and separating those two properties takes more resolutions than 331.

The score is recomputable rather than asserted: the odds each tier stakes are fixed in advance, every resolved call is listed below with the tier it staked, and the arithmetic runs from the published record. One caveat stated plainly — a resolved pick is scored on the tier recorded when it was graded, and the research pipeline can restate a tier afterwards, which moves the figure with no new outcome behind it. Published resolutions are never restated to improve the score.

Does staking conviction beat the base rate yet?

Not measurably, at this sample size. The Brier skill score (−0.032) asks whether the conviction tiers carry information beyond simply forecasting the 48% base rate on every pick. It currently sits at the base-rate line, which is the same finding as the low resolution term above, expressed as a ratio. It is a statement about how far 331 resolutions can separate signal from noise, not a claim in either direction.

This is the distinction between a measured record and an asserted one. Research that retains its winners and quietly retires its losers can report any accuracy it chooses, because nothing was falsifiable at the outset. A figure computed over every resolved call — including the ones that hit their trigger — is one a reader can audit and recompute, which is what makes AI equity research checkable at all, and what an invalidation trigger exists to enable. Whether the record ultimately reflects skill or luck is a question this sample size cannot yet settle, and we publish the number that says so.

The Brier score, decomposed

Calibration

0.010

Reliability: the gap between the play-out rate each tier claimed and the rate it actually hit. Lower is better.

Resolution

0.002

Discrimination: how far the conviction tiers pull outcomes apart from the base rate. Higher is better; near zero means the tiers don't yet separate.

Uncertainty

0.250

The irreducible difficulty of the question itself — the variance you'd face forecasting the base rate alone, before any conviction is staked.

These three sum to the headline figure: Brier = calibration − resolution + uncertainty. The split is the honest part. A low calibration term paired with a near-zero resolution term is exactly what a skill-≈0 record looks like — confidence that tracks reality reasonably well, but conviction tiers that don't yet sort the wins from the losses. The refinement term (0.248, uncertainty minus resolution) measures the same thing from the other side: how much sharper than the base rate the forecasts have managed to be so far.

Reliability diagram
predicted → observed →

Dashed = perfect calibration. Each dot is a conviction tier; the line shows the gap between what it claimed and what happened.

Does conviction predict the outcome?

Tier Claimed Actual n
HIGH 70% 17% 6
MEDIUM 55% 51% 91
LOW 40% 48% 234

Play-out rate by archetype

Play-out rate by regime at resolution

  • Risk-on 51% · 272
  • Neutral 34% · 59

332 resolved · 331 scored — one pick staked no conviction tier, so it cannot be scored for calibration

Two ways a pick resolves — played out or invalidated. Both stay on the record. A pick that has reached neither its target nor its kill line is undecided and is not scored: of 929 published picks, 160 reached their case, 172 hit their line, and 597 are still undecided. 35.7% of published picks have reached a verdict — 332 of 929. How a pick resolves →

  • CERT MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SANM LOW Played out
  • SMTC LOW Played out
  • TAL LOW Played out
  • XOS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SMRT MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SEER LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • WHD LOW Played out
  • FTNT MEDIUM Played out
  • PLPC MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SPXC MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • TEAM MEDIUM Played out
  • BMNR LOW Played out
  • ESTC LOW Played out
  • HIMS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MAN LOW Played out
  • POWL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ADBE MEDIUM Played out
  • AKAM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ALAB MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ANDG MEDIUM Played out
  • AUR MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • BHE MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • DGII MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ENTG MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • FSLR MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • MEI MEDIUM Played out
  • PENN MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • TTMI MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ULCC MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • AAON LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AIP LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ALNT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AVR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BKSY LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FCEL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • GFS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • GTM LOW Played out
  • NP LOW Played out
  • RH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • TGTX LOW Played out
  • VIR LOW Played out
  • VPG LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CRM MEDIUM Played out
  • CYRX MEDIUM Played out
  • FA MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • FTK MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • PCTY MEDIUM Played out
  • MPC LOW Played out
  • COHU MEDIUM Played out
  • CTOS MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • MIRM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SPSC MEDIUM Played out
  • WEX MEDIUM Played out
  • WIX MEDIUM Played out
  • CRS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CSCO LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CVLG LOW Played out
  • DUOT LOW Played out
  • EPAM LOW Played out
  • EXFY LOW Played out
  • G LOW Played out
  • GLUE LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ICHR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • IHRT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • IQ LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MKSI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • OEC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SAH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • TASK LOW Played out
  • TH LOW Played out
  • TIC LOW Played out
  • TLN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • TSAT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • UCTT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CRWV MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ARM LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • INTC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CMCO MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • JWEL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • KC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • VLO MEDIUM Played out
  • BTGO LOW Played out
  • KURA LOW Played out
  • RUM LOW Played out
  • MRX HIGH Played out
  • CGEM MEDIUM Played out
  • KEYS MEDIUM Played out
  • PRGS MEDIUM Played out
  • PTGX MEDIUM Played out
  • RAPP MEDIUM Played out
  • SE MEDIUM Played out
  • VG MEDIUM Played out
  • ASX LOW Played out
  • BCAX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BTE LOW Played out
  • BWIN LOW Played out
  • EQNR LOW Played out
  • GENI LOW Played out
  • GTX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • IMRX LOW Played out
  • KLC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MTUM LOW Played out
  • NWPX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • PBI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • RHI LOW Played out
  • WLFC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • WSC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SATL LOW Played out
  • CGC LOW Played out
  • EVC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • PANL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • HTZ MEDIUM Played out
  • BBBY LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • DJT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ORKA MEDIUM Played out
  • FBIN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MGM LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • TORO LOW Played out
  • UMC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AAPL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AEIS LOW Played out
  • DDOG LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • LUNR LOW Played out
  • MSFT LOW Played out
  • NNE LOW Played out
  • OKLO LOW Played out
  • RDW LOW Played out
  • SENS LOW Played out
  • TBI LOW Played out
  • WEAV LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ACIW MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • AMBA MEDIUM Played out
  • BBAR MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • CCC MEDIUM Played out
  • ELF MEDIUM Played out
  • GHRS MEDIUM Played out
  • HRI MEDIUM Played out
  • NKTR MEDIUM Played out
  • PGEN MEDIUM Played out
  • RRGB MEDIUM Played out
  • YETI LOW Played out
  • ZBIO LOW Played out
  • AGX LOW Played out
  • AKBA LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AOSL LOW Played out
  • ATEN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BRKR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BROS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CHYM LOW Played out
  • COMP LOW Played out
  • DDD LOW Played out
  • FOUR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FRD LOW Played out
  • GGAL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • GOLF LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • LILAK LOW Played out
  • LZ LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MDB LOW Played out
  • ODFL LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ORIC LOW Played out
  • PAY LOW Played out
  • QURE LOW Played out
  • SABR LOW Played out
  • SHOO LOW Played out
  • SITM LOW Played out
  • SVV LOW Played out
  • TNDM LOW Played out
  • UI LOW Played out
  • VECO LOW Played out
  • WGS LOW Played out
  • XRX LOW Played out
  • WDC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FLY LOW Played out
  • HELP LOW Played out
  • ZVRA LOW Played out
  • FIG LOW Played out
  • RXO MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • STX LOW Played out
  • MTRN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NUTX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SMCI LOW Played out
  • VICR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NXT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • PRCH MEDIUM Played out
  • RMAX MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SNDX MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • VCYT MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ALHC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AMKR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CAKE LOW Played out
  • CDW LOW Played out
  • EVH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • IART LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • JACK LOW Played out
  • KSS LOW Played out
  • M LOW Played out
  • MYE LOW Played out
  • MYGN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NEO LOW Played out
  • NOK LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NSIT LOW Played out
  • ON LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • OUST LOW Played out
  • PI LOW Played out
  • RBLX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • UNIT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • VERU LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MRCY MEDIUM Played out
  • FROG MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • TWLO MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • XXI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ALGT HIGH Invalidated kill line fired
  • AMC LOW Played out
  • AFRM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • BAND LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BB MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • CLS MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • CORT LOW Played out
  • ENPH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MMYT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • RARE LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SANA LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SPRY LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • W LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • PANW HIGH Invalidated kill line fired
  • AGYS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BULL MEDIUM Played out
  • PLUG LOW Played out
  • CIEN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • VSH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • BFLY MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • FORM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • KMX LOW Played out
  • BBY LOW Played out
  • CLPT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FWRD LOW Played out
  • GCO LOW Played out
  • HIVE LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • JOBY LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • KOS LOW Played out
  • LEGN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MARA MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • PDFS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • RMBS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SAIL LOW Played out
  • STM LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • STUB LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • TMC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • WING LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • EXTR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • PD LOW Played out
  • MRVL MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • FLEX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • VIAV LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NVDA MEDIUM Played out
  • IMOS MEDIUM Played out
  • OXM LOW Played out
  • BTDR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FPS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • KALU LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • KEEL MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • KFRC LOW Played out
  • LGN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MTSI MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • NEXA LOW Played out
  • PNRG LOW Played out
  • PENG LOW Played out
  • MTH LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AESI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • AMSC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CCJ LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ATI MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • KYMR NONE Played out
  • LRCX MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • ONTO HIGH Invalidated kill line fired
  • TNGX MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • TSM HIGH Invalidated kill line fired
  • CLSK MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • MYRG HIGH Invalidated kill line fired
  • AMN LOW Played out
  • BTBT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • HUT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • ALTO LOW Played out
  • SXC LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SYRE LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • FAC LOW Played out
  • PSNL MEDIUM Played out
  • ADPT MEDIUM Played out
  • RGTI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • SHLS LOW Played out
  • CEVA MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • TLRY LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NBR LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • QUIK LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • NBIS LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • OKTA MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • SNOW LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • DXCM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • HNGE LOW Played out
  • AUGO LOW Played out
  • PTEN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • MGTX MEDIUM Played out
  • PRM MEDIUM Played out
  • ALGM LOW Played out
  • CDNL LOW Played out
  • CECO MEDIUM Played out
  • FIVN LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • IPX LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • JBLU MEDIUM Played out
  • MCHP LOW Played out
  • PCT LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • STRO LOW Played out
  • TER MEDIUM Played out
  • ZETA LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • OPEN LOW Played out
  • BLZE MEDIUM Played out
  • RVMD MEDIUM Played out
  • TBLA LOW Played out
  • DIOD LOW Played out
  • MRAM LOW Played out
  • POWI MEDIUM Played out
  • TRVI LOW Played out
  • TWST LOW Played out
  • AZZ LOW Played out
  • DRTS MEDIUM Played out
  • INDI LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • CLFD LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • INOD LOW Invalidated kill line fired
  • QCOM MEDIUM Invalidated kill line fired
  • PURR LOW Invalidated kill line fired

Open commitments · 204 · soonest to resolve first

Every pick on the active book — held, watchlist or rotation — that ships a published, falsifiable kill line. This is not the full scored set: a name we've stopped actively tracking keeps its published line on its own dossier and still resolves into the record above if that line fires, it just doesn't sit on this board. Distinct from the names held on the live book and the forward theme-bets scored on their own board.

  • PL Planet Labs PBC LOW catalyst passed 8d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $19.16 surrenders the July range low, leaving no prior structure in the covered series beneath the tape after the $21.53 shelf broke 8/27; secondarily, the 9/3 Q2 FY27 call cutting FY27 guidance beneath $425–441M or Q2 revenue landing under $102M.

  • FIGS FIGS, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 7d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $14.00 gives back the entire 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-21 shelf ($14.26–$14.68) and reopens the unfilled 2026-08-06 gap toward roughly $11; secondarily, any trim to the $757.318M FY2026 revenue guide or the 14.8–15.0% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.).

  • PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 7d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $48 fills the 2026-07-15 bid gap back through the pre-approach closes of $47.37 and $47.65 and values the business under where it stood before the FY26 guide was raised; secondary confirmation is a Q3 FY26 print on 2026-10-27 that trims the ~$15.6B transaction-margin-dollar guide.

  • TNET Trinet Group, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 7d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $65 loses the August $68–$71.67 shelf and returns price inside the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise gap; secondarily, a Q3 insurance cost ratio at or above the 89.5% top of the raised FY band, or FY revenue guided beneath the affirmed $4.75B floor, breaks the margin-durability leg regardless of price.

  • GOOG Alphabet Inc. LOW catalyst passed 7d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $328 surrenders the 2026-07-22 post-print reaction shelf ($329.43 after hours) and dates the 2026-09-02/09-03 bounce as a lower high; secondary confirmation if the 2026-10-27 Q3 print lifts 2026 capex above $205B or Cloud growth prints out of the 80s.

  • PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. LOW catalyst passed 7d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $165 extends the failed August breakout past the 2026-08-12 pocket low of $171.04 and removes the last structure above the pre-August base; secondary: 09-04 payrolls, 09-11 CPI, 09-16 FOMC and the 09-18 expiry all passing with no daily close back above the $180.18 shelf.

  • BIDU Baidu, Inc. ADS LOW catalyst passed 4d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $92 breaks the last shelf under the post-print range and makes Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-19 $80 mark the operative published reference; secondarily, the ~2026-09-07 southbound eligibility window passing without the Hong Kong counters being added, leaving four 2026 status changes with no flow attached.

  • ATAI AtaiBeckley Inc. SUPREME catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $6.75 breaks the Lilly cash-consideration floor and marks the tape pricing deal-break risk toward the pre-announcement ~$4 zone; secondarily, a failed or adjourned 2026-09-08 shareholder vote, or an interruption of the ACCC waiting period before its 2026-09-10 expiry.

  • TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. HIGH catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $58 fills the 2026-08-05 post-print gap and returns price into the July range (07-07 close $57.85, 07-17 close $56.71). Secondary: the Sept 8–10 conference block closing with no estimate revision and price still under $67.52, or Q3 start forms below the 2,012 booked in Q2 2026.

  • CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.62 surrenders the entire recovery off the 2026-08-28 low close and puts the 2026-07-23 earnings gap near $10.40 back in play. Secondary: the 2026-09-08 Canadian measures taking effect without a close above the 2026-09-05 high of $12.50, or the USW extension lapsing around 2026-10-01 without a ratified agreement.

  • MGNI Magnite, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $21 fills the 2026-08-06 post-Q2 gap and returns the shares to the pre-print July range. Secondarily, the 2026-09-08 Citi fireside and the rest of the September conference block passing with no new named supply agreement leaves no company-dated event before the 2026-11-11 Q3 print.

  • PGNY Progyny, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $24 forfeits the June pre-breakout shelf and returns control to the pre-re-rate May range. Secondary: Q3 revenue at or under the $335M low end of the 2026-08-06 guide, or the 2026-09-08 fireside passing with no incremental 2027-lives or Select disclosure.

  • VSTM Verastem, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $6.70 unwinds the post-Q2 shelf that held from the 2026-08-07 close of $6.74 through 2026-08-21 at $6.89; October passing with no VS-7375 response-rate disclosure, or a fourth sell-side target cut below $10, would compound the break.

  • AA Alcoa Corporation LOW catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $48 loses the August reclaim off the 2026-08-14 close of $49.98 and reopens the July range; secondary conditions: the September Midwest premium extending under 95 cents a pound on a US-Canada deal cutting the 50% aluminum rate, or 2026-09-08 and the 2026-09-10 Jefferies webcast both passing with no quantified tariff or onshoring economics.

  • AVGO Broadcom Inc. LOW catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $340 completes the failed $370 shelf and takes out the 2026-08-26 close of $355.59. Secondary: Q4 AI semiconductor revenue landing under the guided $21.7B at the December print, or the ~$115B FY27 line-of-sight figure not being reaffirmed.

  • IONQ IonQ, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $36 takes out the level that has held every week since the 2026-08-05 print and opens the $30 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 Investor Day passing without a combined FY revenue range including SkyWater leaves the name with no published bar into the Q3 report.

  • PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $214 (surrenders the $214–220 post-Q2 shelf and the 2026-08-07 close of $214.94 where the second leg began); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) leaving the 8–9% FY26 recurring-revenue guide unchanged-to-lower or adjusted EBITDA margin at or below Q2's 44.2%.

  • RPD Rapid7, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 3d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $10.60 breaks the July shelf that the September retrace has returned price into and leaves the $9 targets at Morgan Stanley and DA Davidson as the next marked levels; the secondary break is the 20% Q4 non-GAAP operating margin target being softened at the 2026-09-08 or 2026-09-16 conference presentations.

  • HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. HIGH catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $98 (loses the $98.58–$107.90 August post-print shelf); secondarily, the 09-09 / 09-15 / 09-16 conference window passing with no new platform deal and no target above HC Wainwright's $115 while price stalls under the $110.76 high.

  • ABCL AbCellera Biologics Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.75, the 2026-08-12 follow-on pricing level, retraces the post-data move into the 17,435,897 shares issued at it; secondary, the 2026-09-09 Cantor appearance passing with no Phase 3 start window and no end-of-Phase-2 meeting date, and ABCL575 Phase 1 top-line slipping out of Q4 2026.

  • AGCO AGCO Corporation MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $118 invalidates the recovery price structure; separately, Q3 2026 sales below $2.3 billion or adjusted EPS below $0.85 would break the earnings-trough assumption embedded in AGCO's 2026-07-30 guidance.

  • APPN Appian Corporation MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $34 gives back the $34.64 weekly close of 2026-08-07 and every post-print weekly close, re-opening the unfilled $30.41 pre-print gap. Secondary: the 2026-09-09 Citi fireside passing with no estimate revision above the $42 DA Davidson mark, or Q3 billings again growing under 10% YoY.

  • CLYM Climb Bio, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $13.30 gives back the June–July shelf and the entire post-EHA range; secondarily, any Q3 2026 disclosure moving budoprutug pMN, ITP or SLE data out of Q4 2026, which would leave no efficacy checkpoint before H1 2027 NAVIGATE-2 data.

  • DINO HF Sinclair Corporation MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $93 (hands back the September extension and drops price beneath the $97.32 shelf set on 2026-08-21), with secondary confirmation from consecutive EIA weekly gasoline and distillate builds narrowing the 3-2-1 crack, or the ~2026-10-29 Q3 print showing sequentially lower refining gross margin per barrel on comparable throughput.

  • FDMT 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $12.50 gives back the July–August impulse built on the 2026-07-18 PRISM 2-year data; secondary, Q3 2026 ending with the guided DME Phase 3 initiation unstarted, or a registered equity offering priced into the advance.

  • LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $32 (re-enters the August band and undercuts the $31.8450 low of the disclosed 2026-08-19/20 insider executions). Secondary: the 2026-09-09 Goldman appearance passing with no update to the $160–164M Q3 guide and no published target above $37.

  • MANE Veradermics, Incorporated MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $85 (loses the $100.00 April 29, 2026 follow-on placement zone by a wide margin), or 2026-12-31 arriving with the guided 2H26 Study '304' topline unreported.

  • NAVN Navan, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $25 surrenders the IPO-price reclaim and returns the name to the July digestion range under unrestricted pre-IPO supply. Secondarily, a 2026-09-09 Q2 print at or under the $219M revenue guide floor, or non-GAAP operating income under $13.5M, with FY2027 left at $907–913M rather than raised.

  • OABI OmniAb, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $3.82 fills the 2026-08-17 Lilly-deal session and leaves only the $3.38–$3.43 August shelf beneath; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15 conference dates passing with no new partner agreement and no move back above $4.81.

  • PBF PBF ENERGY INC. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $68 gives back the August advance and puts price under the mid-August Form 4 distribution range; a signed Hormuz transit arrangement, or consecutive distillate builds across the September EIA weeklies with the diesel crack off record levels, is the fundamental confirmation.

  • PUBM PubMatic, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $15.20 hands back the majority of the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and points price at the $13.43 pre-print shelf; secondarily, Q3 revenue printing beneath the guided $75M floor in early November would confirm the acceleration rested on an easier comparison.

  • RVTY Revvity, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $116 (loses the 50-day average at $116.40 and the entire post-2026-08-04 advance), or a Q3 print in late October that trims FY26 organic growth back toward 3–4% with Life Sciences still contracting.

  • SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $8.50 gives back the 2026-08-13 IND-clearance gap and returns the stock inside the pre-clearance band; a secondary break is October 2026 passing with no AURORA screening start, or a revised enrolment timeline disclosed at the Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.).

  • SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) MEDIUM catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $133 takes out the $134.00 low close of 2026-08-20 and reduces the defence of the $135 IPO price since 2026-08-21 to an excursion. Secondary: the ~2026-09-09 and ~2026-09-24 tranches, the 2026-09-15 Flight 14 window and the 2026-09-30 Google capacity date all passing with no close above $146.15.

  • AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $100 extends the sequence of broken levels — $110.21 on 2026-08-28, $104.50 on 2026-09-01 — with no company-dated event before ~2026-11-05 to arrest it. Secondary: a 424B5 or 8-K disclosing takedowns under the 2026-08-21 $600,000,000 ATM, or the ~2026-09-09 FCC tentative agenda arriving with no transceiver item.

  • AGL agilon health, inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $80 gives up the range held since the August drawdown and turns the slide from $129.84 into a trend; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16 conference window passing with no 2027 member or ACO REACH replacement disclosure, or a Q3 report that cuts the FY26 $465M medical-margin floor.

  • AMPL Amplitude, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $12.60 forfeits the pre-print shelf the entire advance originated from; secondarily, the 2026-09-09 Citi TMT and 2026-09-15 Piper appearances passing with no update to the 103% net-retention trajectory, no dated target above Needham's $18, and $13.30 unreclaimed into the ~2026-11-04 (est.) Q3 print.

  • CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.80 surrenders the entire August extension above the pre-print 52-week high, and a subsequent daily close under $11.36 returns price to the June–July failure zone. Secondary: the 2026-09-29 ASTRO poster passing without participation widening, or Q4 2026 BLA language changing at a September fireside.

  • HTFL Heartflow, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $42 surrenders the 2026-08-14 gap-day close of $42.08 and the post-print shelf; the 2026-09-09 fireside chat passing with no commercial framing attached to FUSION, followed by a failed retest of the $50.43 high, confirms the break.

  • LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $820 loses the $820.59 lower August shelf and ends the post-print leg; $866.71 is the immediate shelf, and the $885 weekly-close level sits above the 2026-09-02 close of $870.58. Secondary: 09-09 Citi and 09-10 Wolfe passing with no OCS, 1.6T or Cloud Light figure beyond 2026-08-27's.

  • MRVI Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.24 forfeits the pre-gap 52-week-high ledge the 2026-08-19 gap cleared and turns the read-through into a round trip toward the unfilled $5.74–$6.72 zone; secondary confirmation would be the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print reaffirming or narrowing the $205–215M FY26 range with no cancer-vaccine order commentary.

  • NET Cloudflare, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $260 — roughly 5% under the 2026-09-02 close of $272.74 — turns the three-month price change negative and extends the September decline past a re-test of the pre-print range. Secondary: the 2026-10-29 Q3 print landing FY2026 revenue inside $2.864–2.870B with no raise, or net retention slipping from 120%.

  • NVAX Novavax, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.00 ends the price-confirmed Matrix-M re-rating thesis; separately, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-10 conferences passing without company-confirmed Sanofi Phase 3 initiation timing ends the near-term catalyst case.

  • SLN Silence Therapeutics Plc LOW catalyst passed 2d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $13.50 — the 2026-08-11 offering price at which 12,962,963 ADSs were placed — breaks the post-readout shelf. Secondary: the 09-09/09-15/09-16 conference block passing with zerlasiran partnering language unchanged, leaving nothing company-dated before the 1H 2027 Phase 3 start.

  • XMTR Xometry, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $85 breaks the June 2, 2026 public-offering reference; third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million or a reduction in the August 4 full-year revenue-growth outlook also rejects the operating case.

  • DAVE Dave Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $358 invalidates the published recovery case; a reduction below the August 5, 2026 full-year operating-revenue guidance floor of $725 million separately breaks the operating premise.

  • DELL Dell Technologies Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $456 breaks the pre-results structure beneath the August 31, 2026 close of $456.01. Secondary failure occurs if Dell reduces its roughly $19 billion next-quarter AI-server revenue outlook, reports below it, or reports ISG operating margin below 15.0%.

  • DCTH Delcath Systems, Inc. HIGH catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $14.00 surrenders the entire advance off the 2026-08-06 print; secondary conditions: the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-15 conference dates passing with no press release or rating action and no close above the 52-week high of $17.36, or FY26 revenue guided beneath the $104M floor at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.).

  • IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. HIGH catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.00 ends the post-Q2 advance (the level UBS marked on 2026-08-20, roughly 20% under the 2026-09-04 close of $8.79); secondarily, a Q3 2026 guidance update that leaves FY2026 revenue at $350–370M removes the fundamental leg.

  • CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $39 invalidates the continuation thesis beneath the August breakout shelf identified in the September 7 analysis; separately, third-quarter 2026 refining margin at or below second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel rejects the expected operational improvement.

  • HNST The Honest Company, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $5.00 puts price back under the 2026-08-21 consolidation low and inside the $4.60–$5.46 August range, dating the late-August breakout as failed; secondary break is Q3 adjusted gross margin printing under the mid-40s FY guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) report, without the $6.6M tariff-refund credit.

  • HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $107 invalidates the September repricing thesis by returning the market toward the 2026-09-02 pre-jump close of $106.99.

  • IREN IREN Limited MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $35 gives back the post-print floor set by the 2026-08-28 close of $35.45 and re-opens $30, the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian award landing without IREN, or the 2026-12-31 $4B operating-ARR target being reframed.

  • KRT Karat Packaging Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $40 fills the 2026-08-06 post-print gap and ends the tariff-refund re-rating leg; secondary, the 2026-09-10 Lake Street conference passing with no second published target above the market while the 35–37% Q3 gross-margin guide stays untested into November.

  • LMND Lemonade, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $50 breaks the shelf that has held since the 2026-07-29 print and leaves no visible structure until the spring lows; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) that raises FY26 adjusted-EBITDA loss guidance above $47-51M or moves breakeven language into 2027.

  • MOD Modine Manufacturing Co MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $153 puts the drawdown past 50% from the $306.89 high and dates the failed-breakout leg as extending rather than basing. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Gentherm vote passing with no reclaim of the $195–$210 zone lost 2026-08-14, or a cut to the $650M–$680M FY27 adjusted EBITDA guide.

  • PRGO PERRIGO COMPANY PLC MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $13.00 fills the 2026-08-05 earnings gap and ends the re-rating leg; a secondary break is the 2026-09-10 Barclays appearance passing with no update on the infant-formula or oral-care reviews and no upward revision to the $2.25–$2.55 core EPS guide.

  • QNST QuinStreet, Inc. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $17 loses the pre-print July high near $17.2 and returns price inside the 2026-08-07 gap, ending the post-print leg. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-22 conference dates passing with the six-analyst average still $22.40 and no target above $24.

  • TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd. MEDIUM catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $195, back beneath the 2026-09-01 close of $199.06 that the 2026-09-02 close of $206.81 reclaimed, marks the $200 shelf failing rather than repairing. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Benchmark-StoneX appearance passing with no reiteration of the $3.6B revenue / $1.2B net-profit 2028 model published 2026-07-14.

  • AEHR Aehr Test Systems LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $70.00 carries the unwind through the July range and the 2026-07-28 shelf, the last dated support above the 200-day average of $61.00 read 2026-08-28. Secondary: the 2026-09-10 Lake Street venue passing with no second distinct AI-ASIC customer named and Lake Street's $110 target unrevised.

  • ASML ASML Holding N.V. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $1665 confirms the July–August range break on a settled week rather than a single-session undercut. Secondary condition: TSMC's ~2026-09-10 August revenue arriving with no weekly close back above $1,805 by the 2026-09-11 settlement.

  • AXTI AXT Inc LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $52 — beneath B. Riley's $55 from 2026-07-31, the lowest published number in the coverage set — confirms the $58–$64.25 zone as distribution with no base. Secondary: the ~2026-09-04 Lumentum deposit deadline and the 2026-09-10 conference both passing with no disclosure and $64.25 unreclaimed.

  • EMBC Embecta Corp. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $4.60 gives back the entire post-2026-08-11 continuation and returns price to the 2026-08-07 gap session's zone (that session closed $4.42); secondarily, the 2026-09-09/09-10 conference appearances passing with no covering analyst lifting the $4.00 average target, or short interest printing below 5.44M shares without a higher high.

  • OMDA Omada Health, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $22 completes the unwind of the post-print leg and puts price beneath every session since mid-July as well as the lowest covering sell-side target; secondarily, the 2026-09-10 Investor Day passing without a dated contribution path for GLP-1 prescribing, Flex Care or the cholesterol program.

  • QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $16.18 removes the 2026-07-29 low and the $16.21 pre-AT&T shelf, the last references under the July–August recovery, and reopens the range toward the 52-week low. Secondary: the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print arriving with no contract value attached to the AT&T, Nasdaq Verafin or DOCOMO agreements.

  • QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.30 loses the July 2026 range floor, the last reference beneath the $8.22 shelf that broke 2026-08-28 and failed again 2026-09-01/09-02; secondarily the 2026-09-10 Lake Street date and both the ~09-10 and ~09-25 FINRA settlements passing with short interest near 64.09M shares and no weekly close above the descending $8.60 50-day.

  • RCEL Avita Medical, Inc. LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.00 — roughly the midpoint of the advance from the 2026-08-07 session print of $7.53 to the 2026-09-04 close of $11.20 — ends the momentum leg. Secondary: any walk-back of the Q4 2026 cash-flow-breakeven guide, or an FY2026 revenue guide trimmed below $86M at the Q3 print.

  • SMR NuScale Power Corporation LOW catalyst passed 1d ago

    Kill line A daily close below $8.64 (the 2026-08-18 floor of the band held since mid-August) re-opens the 2026-07-20 close of $7.96 and the 2026-07-17 low of $7.21; secondary: management's end-2026 ENTRA1–TVA definitive PPA target passing unsigned, or the ~2026-11-04 Q3 10-Q disclosing at-the-market shares sold beneath the $11.11 average of the completed program.

  • AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. MEDIUM resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $456 invalidates the September recovery by undercutting the 2026-09-03 market close of $456.16; independently, AMD or OpenAI postponing Helios activation beyond Q4 2026 breaks the deployment timetable.

  • ARCB ArcBest Corporation LOW resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the rebound component at the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; a Q3 2026 adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio above 90.8% separately fails the margin-preservation condition.

  • LPG Dorian Lpg Ltd HIGH resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $47 gives back the breakout shelf ($47.42, rejected May 2026 and 2026-08-14, reclaimed in the week to 2026-08-21). Secondarily, a signed Hormuz reopening with transits recovering from the 6-vessel 2026-08-30 count toward the 85/day pre-crisis baseline.

  • SSRM SSR Mining Inc. HIGH resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $33 ends the post-divestiture re-rating leg (2026-09-03 close $38.89; 52-week high $39.21). Secondary: gold settling under $4,200/oz on successive weekly closes, or 2026-09-30 passing with the dividend paid, the Denver forum over and no capital-deployment announcement.

  • CNH CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. MEDIUM resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the September re-rating leg; the reference is Evercore's 2026-08-11 analyst target. Separately, FY2026 agriculture adjusted EBIT margin guidance below 5.0% or adjusted diluted EPS guidance below $0.41 breaks the earnings foundation.

  • NVCT Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. MEDIUM resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $20.00 — the 2026-06-29 offering price at which 5.75M shares were placed — unwinds the post-license shelf; secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announced NXP900 ALK+ trial initiation and Q4 2026 ending with neither US IND filed.

  • AU AngloGold Ashanti plc LOW resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $105 erases the three sessions that built the August leg (+9.46% 2026-08-07, +5.05% 2026-08-20, +5.57% 2026-08-21) and the $123.39 high; secondary condition, spot gold closing a week under $4,200/oz after the $4,420/oz quote of 2026-09-04.

  • MSTR Strategy Inc LOW resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $123 invalidates the September recovery structure; renewed common-equity financing alongside unchanged or declining bitcoin holdings would separately contradict the accumulation mechanism.

  • PTRN Pattern Group Inc. Series A LOW resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $19 breaks the June secondary shelf where 9.2M Series A shares cleared at $19.00 public / $18.145 net and opens the IPO-era $14–15.63 zone; secondarily, the 2026-09-11 Goldman Communacopia appearance passing with no reclaim of $23.16, or Q3 revenue at or below the $840M guide low end.

  • TITN Titan Machinery Inc. LOW resolves today

    Kill line A weekly close below $23 invalidates the cycle-bottom re-rating; independently, next-quarter total inventory above $931.5 million or a cut to fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17 million–$29 million breaks the operating recovery case.

  • UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. LOW resolves today

    Kill line A daily close below $13.90 breaks the shelf tested intraday near $14.00 on 2026-09-02 and opens the 2026-08-06 area near $12.90. Secondary: the ~2026-09-11 and ~2026-09-25 FINRA readings passing with the 20.51% float short unwinding and no daily close back above $15.14.

  • ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. LOW resolves in 1d

    Kill line A weekly close below $55.74 removes the early-August low and the $56 shelf reclaimed on 2026-09-02; secondary: the Grain 800 MHz process reaching its 2026-11-05 FCC completion date with AST not named, or no dated BlueBird 14/15/16 launch release by 2026-10-31.

  • CEG Constellation Energy Corporation LOW resolves in 1d

    Kill line A weekly close below $281 puts price back inside the $281–$282.50 band and makes the 2026-09-02 reclaim a third failure after 08-14 and 08-27, confirming the zone as resistance. Secondary: the 2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group remit arriving with no carve-out for co-located or behind-the-meter generation.

  • BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. HIGH resolves in 2d

    Kill line A daily close below $40.50 invalidates the completion-before-price-deterioration thesis. A disclosed merger termination, failed shareholder vote or financing failure preventing completion independently breaks the transaction case.

  • LSTR Landstar System, Inc. LOW resolves in 3d

    Kill line A weekly close below $167 breaks the published price structure. Separately, no year-over-year growth in truck revenue per load in the 2026-10-27 results invalidates the operating repricing thesis.

  • ATKR Atkore Inc. HIGH resolves in 3d

    Kill line A weekly close below $88 (seven dollars under the $95.00 cash consideration) prices genuine deal-break risk rather than carry; secondarily an 8-K disclosing an HSR second request instead of expiry on 2026-09-14, an in-depth review in Austria, Australia or Canada, or no DEFM14A on EDGAR by late September 2026.

  • LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. HIGH resolves in 3d

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.00 unwinds the entire August–September advance measured off the $10.85 area transacted on 2026-08-10. Secondary: the 2026-09-14 and 2026-09-15 conference appearances passing with no new operating datapoint and no target revision above the $13.80 average of the 11 analysts polled by S&P Global.

  • IMMX Immix Biopharma, Inc. LOW resolves in 3d

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the entire August advance; secondary break is the late-September NEXICART-2 update arriving with a CR rate under the 95% (19/20) anchor of 2026-05-21 across a larger denominator, or the window passing with no data and no reaffirmed 2026 BLA date.

  • SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $230 breaks the recovery thesis beneath the market's 2026-08-13 shelf at $238.51 and 2026-09-03 session low near $231.51. Reported third-quarter 2026 revenue below management's $519 million guidance floor independently defeats the operating case.

  • CNC Centene Corporation LOW resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $65 ends the September continuation thesis. Withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance above $4.80 independently breaks the fundamental case; failure to close weekly above $68.72 by 2026-10-27 ends the time-bounded thesis.

  • SEZL Sezzle Inc. LOW resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $114 invalidates the recovery thesis by undercutting the 2026-09-01 closing low of $114.52, following the 2026-09-09 daily close below the August 18 shelf of $117.18.

  • ABSI Absci Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.50 gives back the consolidation shelf built since the 2026-06-24 ABS-201 interim release; secondarily, the guided 2H 2026 interim proof-of-concept window closing with the readout restated to early 2027 at the Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-10).

  • AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $210 unwinds the post-2026-07-30 re-rating and leaves the $241.74 52-week high unretested; secondarily, a Q3 report in early November printing net effective spread at or below the $117.4M Q2 record while volume still rises.

  • ALVO Alvotech MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $4.40 breaches the market threshold published on 2026-09-07; independently, another manufacturing-related FDA rejection for AVT05 or AVT06, or a disclosed delay beyond Q4 2026, breaks the regulatory-repair thesis.

  • AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.75 surrenders the 2026-08-21 secondary price at which 15,000,000 sponsor and insider shares cleared; secondary conditions are a disclosed exercise of the 2,250,000-share over-allotment before ~2026-09-20, or a maintained rather than raised FY2026 guide at the Q3 print.

  • COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $160 surrenders the 2026-08-19 gap-bottom close of $160.20 and the 08-28 50-day at $160.11 together, re-pointing at the $139.11–$145.60 shelf; secondarily, the 09-15 cloture motion being pulled or finishing short of 60 votes while the 09-16 FOMC delivers the hike priced near 50%.

  • HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $28.00 ends the post-refund advance; secondary condition, the Q3 print (~2026-11-04, est.) landing with adjusted gross margin under the 26.1% posted for Q2, or FY operating profit guided back toward a low-teens decline.

  • SBET SharpLink, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.50 invalidates the discount-closure recovery thesis; this retains the published research threshold beneath the market's $7.91 weekly close on 2026-08-21 and $8.20 weekly close on 2026-08-28.

  • TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $78 invalidates the price thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; separately, next-quarter XDEMVY sales at or below $173.9 million or a reduction in either boundary of the $685–705 million annual guidance breaks the commercial premise.

  • AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. LOW resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $210 breaks the August support associated with the 2026-08-24 close of $209.93; third-quarter Met-segment net realization at or below $118.71 per short ton separately fails the pricing-transmission thesis.

  • BLSH Bullish LOW resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $31 loses the market's August 26, 2026 intraday low and invalidates the advance thesis. Rejection or withdrawal of the H.R. 3633 cloture motion separately breaks the legislative-progress premise.

  • SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. LOW resolves in 4d

    Kill line A weekly close below $15.00 gives back the 2026-08-25 to 2026-09-03 data leg and returns the stock to its pre-readout band; reinforced if HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS misses in H2 2026, or if the 2026-11-14 PDUFA returns a complete response letter or an extension.

  • JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $265 invalidates the published freight-recovery structure, measured against the adjusted daily-bar series used for the 2026-09-09 reference close.

  • OSCR Oscar Health, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $29.83 breaks the post-August 6 earnings structure. Separately, September 16, 2026 passing without either a quantified 2027 membership range or a quantified 2027 premium framework ends the information-catalyst thesis.

  • FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. HIGH resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.00 gives back the entire post-Q2 advance that carried the shares to within 7.3% of the $13.66 52-week high; secondary breaks are the 2026-09-16 FOMC delivering a hike with gold losing $4,000/oz, or 2026 output guided under the 281,000–305,000 GEO range at the mid-October Q3 production release.

  • UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. HIGH resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $5.80 gives back the July breakout shelf and more than half the advance off the 2026-07-02 low, landing on Goldman Sachs' 2026-08-26 target; secondarily, a company statement or credible report that the Ipiranga sale process ended without a transaction.

  • EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $40 (surrenders the August advance shelf with no base built under it); secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no Skouries first-concentrate release, or commercial production guided into 2027 at the 2026-10-29 Q3 print.

  • EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.50 puts price back beneath the base the 43.4% three-month advance was built from and ends the Terronera-ramp re-rating; secondarily, silver losing $55/oz, or Q3 2026 financials (est. early November) showing consolidated AISC still above $30/oz with no reset of the $27–28/oz guide.

  • FBIZ First Business Financial Services, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $68 (gives back the post-2026-07-30 advance and the rising 50-day at $68.04); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-29) showing NIM under the 3.78% posted in Q2 or pre-provision earnings under the $19.8M record.

  • HL Hecla Mining Company MEDIUM resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $19 erases the September leg (the 2026-09-02 low was $19.03) and returns the shares to the mid-August range; secondarily, the 2026-09-16 FOMC projections showing a higher path than June with silver back under the $63.06/oz Q2 realization and no new high in the silver miners within two weeks.

  • AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. LOW resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $245 unwinds what remains of the 2026-07-31 earnings gap and returns price to the pre-print range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. 2026-10-29) with AWS growth under 30% YoY alongside another increase to the ~$220B capex guide.

  • CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. LOW resolves in 5d

    Kill line A weekly close below $19 gives back the entire August gold-complex advance and puts the tape under Roth Capital's August mark. Secondary: the 2026-09-16 FOMC comes and goes with the miner complex firm and the shares still pinned near $21, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) showing gold below the revised 630,000 oz low end or capex above $520–605M.

  • CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. LOW resolves in 5d

    Kill line A daily close below $95 invalidates the published breakout thesis; the 2026-09-09 adjusted close of $92.99 already met this condition. Independently, Arc remaining unavailable to the public after 2026-09-16 invalidates the launch premise.

  • NSP Insperity, Inc MEDIUM resolves in 6d

    Kill line A weekly close below $48 loses the rising 50-day average tallied at $48.11 on 2026-08-28 and returns price to the pre-Q2 range; a Q3 average-paid-WSEE print under the 305,500 guide floor, or an FY adjusted-EBITDA guide cut below the $185M floor set 2026-07-29, would confirm the margin repair did not hold.

  • SPT Sprout Social, Inc MEDIUM resolves in 7d

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.50 hands back the entire advance since the 2026-08-19 Trellis release and returns the shares to the 2026-08-17 range of $9.53-9.96; a Q3 revenue print at or under the $123.3M guide floor, or a cut to the FY2026 range of $493.0-495.6M at the early-November report, would confirm the break fundamentally.

  • SPIR Spire Global, Inc. LOW resolves in 7d

    Kill line A weekly close below $13 puts price under the entire August contract-news range and leaves the $15–16 June shelf unreclaimed. Secondary: 2026-09-18 passing with no close above $15, or an ATM or registered offering disclosed against the ~$92M cash line.

  • AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 8d

    Kill line secondarily, year-end 2026 NDA submission guidance being restated to 2027 at the Q3 report.

  • ATEX Anterix Inc. LOW resolves in 10d

    Kill line A weekly close below $85.31 breaks the 2026-08-20 support reference and invalidates the setup before another utility spectrum agreement with disclosed contractual payments confirms conversion.

  • META Meta Platforms, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 12d

    Kill line A weekly close below $545 forfeits the shelf built off the 2026-07-30 low of $524.49 and re-exposes that low; secondary: Meta Connect on 2026-09-23/24 and the 2026-10-28 print both passing with no disclosed contract value or run rate for external compute or the Meta Model API.

  • IRDM Iridium Communications Inc MEDIUM resolves in 13d

    Kill line A weekly close below $43.50 invalidates the merger-premium structure near the market’s $43.52 pre-announcement close on 2026-06-26; formal termination or certified shareholder rejection separately ends the completion thesis.

  • TXG 10x Genomics, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 13d

    Kill line A weekly close below $58.57 breaks the August shelf identified in the September 9 published analysis and ends the continuation thesis; deferral of the disclosed second-half Atera shipment plan into 2027 would separately undermine the operating case.

  • SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation LOW resolves in 13d

    Kill line A weekly close below $255 forfeits the September reclaim of the $255.70 market pivot. Separately, fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS below management's $4.25 guidance floor on 2026-09-24 invalidates the earnings-transmission thesis.

  • BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. LOW resolves in 13d

    Kill line A weekly close below $9.79 — the 2026-09-04 close, already through the $9.90 level that defined the 2026-08-05 advance — carries price into the pre-print August range. Secondary: the ~2026-11-04 Q3 report trimming the FY26 adjusted EPS range of $0.90–$1.00.

  • KARO Karooooo Ltd. MEDIUM resolves in 14d

    Kill line A weekly close below $62 unwinds the late-August break through the prior $65.91 high and puts the shares back under the 2026-08-14 close of $62.28; secondary break is Q2 FY2027 net Cartrack adds (~2026-10-13 est.) reverting toward the prior-year 84,013 from the record 142,472.

  • ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 15d

    Kill line A weekly close below $52 hands back roughly half the 2026-08-14 earnings gap and breaks the post-print re-rate; secondarily an ATM, secondary or S-3 takedown 8-K filed while price holds within 10% of the 2026-08-24 high of $64.43, or Q3 product revenue printing below the $37.568M Q2 figure.

  • IAG IAMGold Corporation HIGH resolves in 17d

    Kill line A weekly close below $18.50 ends the margin-expansion leg — it would break under the 2026-09-02 close of $20.20 set on the weakest gold quote of the window. Secondary confirmation: spot gold sustaining under $4,300 into the 2026-09-30 quarter close, or the 2026-09-28 Mining Forum slot passing with no Côté throughput or unit-cost update.

  • BBNX Beta Bionics, Inc. LOW resolves in 17d

    Kill line A weekly close below $16 unwinds the August extension, taking price under the 2026-08-14 close of $17.57 with the $13.88 stall of 2026-06-19 the next demonstrated shelf; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-27, est.) showing new patient starts back in sequential decline or the $131–136M FY26 revenue guide trimmed.

  • UPXI Upexi, Inc. LOW resolves in 17d

    Kill line A weekly close below $1.00 invalidates the recovery structure at the disclosed Nasdaq minimum-bid threshold; continued negative stockholders’ equity in the fiscal 2026 annual report independently defeats the fundamental case.

  • NTAP NetApp, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 18d

    Kill line A weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis; fiscal-Q2 revenue below $2.025 billion, non-GAAP gross margin below 67.0%, or a reduction to the fiscal-2027 revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 independently invalidates the operating case.

  • VST Vistra Corp. MEDIUM resolves in 18d

    Kill line A weekly close below $135.66 puts price back under the entire 08-24 to 09-01 compression band and negates the 09-02 expansion, leaving only the $132.66 May low and 52-week floor marked beneath it. Secondarily, FERC not accepting ER26-3380-000 by 2026-09-29 slips the 09-30 bid window and empties the calendar to the ~11-06 Q3 print.

  • EOLS Evolus, Inc. LOW resolves in 18d

    Kill line A weekly close below $8.00 surrenders the August breakout shelf (2026-08-21 close $8.39, prior 52-week high $8.60) and ends the September extension leg. Secondary: a common-stock or convertible offering off the $250M shelf near the highs, or Q3 adjusted gross margin under the 67.0–67.5% guided range attributed to import duty.

  • HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $50 invalidates the earnings-repricing thesis; a reduction in management's fiscal 2027 revenue-growth framework of 13–17%, announced on 2026-09-02, separately breaks the fundamental premise.

  • MU Micron Technology, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $958 breaks the rebound structure retained in the 2026-09-09 dossier. Secondary failure: 2026-09-30 revenue below the lower end of June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion guidance or adjusted gross margin below 86%.

  • APGE Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. SUPREME resolves in 19d

    Kill line A daily close below $130 was the break condition and it never printed: the last completed close was $135.07 on 2026-09-02, trading halted after it, and the merger became effective 2026-09-03 at $135.11 in cash. With Nasdaq suspension on 2026-09-04 there is no further series to grade.

  • GEO The GEO Group, Inc. HIGH resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $28 ends the activation leg (post-print structure gone). Secondary: a Q3 print (~2026-11-05 est.) at or under the $0.35 low end of guidance, or Q4 reaffirmed at $0.28–$0.31, with no new ICE facility contract announced since 2026-08-01.

  • HZO MarineMax, Inc. HIGH resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $50 (gross spread past ~5.7% against the $53.00 cash terms), or an HSR second request or disclosed foreign investment review that pushes the stated end-2026 close into 2027.

  • AQST Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $4.47, the 200-day moving average as of 2026-09-04, ends the recovery leg off the post-CRL base; secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announced Anaphylm NDA resubmission, or an equity offering priced into September strength.

  • CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $12.00 (marks the post-2026-08-04 guidance-raise range as failed); secondary, FY26 adjusted FFO guidance cut below the $1.28 floor or RevPAR guidance trimmed under the +1.5% low end at the Q3 print.

  • CRDL Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. Class A MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $1.75 ends the breakout leg (drops back beneath the January 2026 financing warrant strike); secondarily, 2026-09-30 passing with no announcement that MAVERIC target enrollment is complete, or an equity financing before topline despite the stated runway into Q4 2027.

  • MNKD MannKind Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $3.55 surrenders the three-month advance and returns the shares to the pre-catalyst level; secondary conditions are 2026-09-30 passing with no INFLO-1 Phase 1b readout and no new guided date, or Q3 Tyvaso DPI royalties printing below the $32.4M Q2 figure.

  • SNDK Sandisk Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $1400 gives back the 2026-08-13/14 Investor Day repricing and returns the name to its pre-event range; reinforced if Micron's 2026-09-30 print guides NAND pricing lower, or if the FY2026 10-K contract terms show the ~$94B NBM minimums are volume-only with pricing renegotiable.

  • BTCS BTCS Inc. LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $1.25 invalidates the recovery thesis; Q3 gross profit at or below Q2 2026’s $1.5 million, or total debt above June 30’s $50.4 million on comparable reporting definitions, defeats the fundamental case.

  • ILMN Illumina, Inc. LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $205 loses the 2026-07-30 print-day high of $205.10 that capped the tape for three weeks before becoming support, returning price to the $188–$205 post-print range and marking the August breakout as failed. Secondary: Q3 FY26 revenue under the $1.14B guide floor set 2026-07-30.

  • IMRN Immuron Limited LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $1.65 invalidates the announcement-continuation thesis; separately, the FY26 annual report expected around 2026-09-30 appearing with neither US PROIBS launch timing nor commercial terms invalidates near-term commercial validation.

  • PAYS Paysign, Inc. LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $11.50 removes the entire post-2026-08-05 re-rating and puts price under the CEO's 2026-08-06 sale average of $11.8757 and the lowest of the five published targets. Secondary: an active-program count at or below 160 for 2026-09-30 versus the 165–170 guided.

  • QLYS Qualys, Inc. LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $170 confirms the post-print re-rate is unwinding rather than resting, putting price under all but two of the nine 2026-08-05 targets and opening the unfilled 2026-08-04 gap toward the $155.47 prior 2026 ceiling. Secondary: Q3 (~2026-11-03 est.) revenue at or below the $185.5M guide low end.

  • RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. LOW resolves in 19d

    Kill line A weekly close below $12.90 loses the pre-raise selloff shelf the 2026-07-08 placement was struck against and ends the recovery leg; secondarily, the R2 second shift still not running when Q3 volumes publish (~2026-10-02, est.), or a full-year delivery guide cut below the 65,000 floor at the Q3 report.

  • XPO XPO, Inc. LOW resolves in 20d

    Kill line A weekly close below $185 invalidates the September price thesis. Separately, a Q3 2026 adjusted LTL operating ratio of 81% or higher fails management's below-81% guidance issued on 2026-07-30.

  • BAX Baxter International Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 20d

    Kill line A weekly close below $24 fills the 2026-07-30 guidance-raise gap and returns the shares under the pre-announcement zone; secondary break is FY26 adjusted EPS guidance revised below the $1.95-$2.15 range at the Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.).

  • MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 20d

    Kill line A weekly close below $18 invalidates the crane-order re-rating; a secondary break is Q3 backlog below the $1,050.1 million Q2 mark or a reduction in the $150–170 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance issued on 2026-08-06.

  • OMER Omeros Corporation MEDIUM resolves in 20d

    Kill line A weekly close below $16.00 hands back the entire post-print advance and puts the launch-ramp re-rating in question ($13.00 fully retraces the 2026-08-13 earnings gap). Secondarily, Q3 2026 net product sales at or below $28.5M while ordering accounts grow past 73, or an equity offering into the advance.

  • NKE Nike, Inc. LOW resolves in 20d

    Kill line A weekly close below $36 puts price roughly 10% under JPMorgan's $40 target, the lowest published mark, and confirms no trough formed ahead of the print; secondarily, the 2026-10-01 Q1 FY2027 print passing with the FY2027 guide cut toward JPMorgan's $1.55 EPS and no upgrade in the two weeks after.

  • VREX Varex Imaging Corporation HIGH resolves in 21d

    Kill line A daily close below $17.50 (gross gap wider than ~7% to the fixed $18.90 cash price) marks completion risk being priced rather than time value; secondarily, an 8-K disclosing an antitrust second request, or 2026-09-28 passing with no preliminary merger proxy on file and no announced HSR expiry.

  • TSLA Tesla, Inc. LOW resolves in 21d

    Kill line A daily close below $357 gives back the entire 2026-09-03 event-day advance and puts price under the $356.09/$357.01 pre-event shelf; secondary condition is the ~2026-10-02 Q3 delivery release passing with no stated Cybercab operating fleet count and deliveries below Q2's 480,126.

  • HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 23d

    Kill line A weekly close below $40 (hands back the post-2026-08-05 advance and puts price under Morgan Stanley's $41 target of 2026-08-20); secondary, the weekly Baker Hughes US rig count flat or lower through October with Brent above $90, or the ~2026-11-16 Q4 print landing North America direct margin under the $245M guide low end.

  • PLSE Pulse Biosciences, Inc MEDIUM resolves in 24d

    Kill line A weekly close below $44 puts price back inside the pre-initiation range and marks the 2026-08-17 breakout through the $44.92 prior 52-week high as a failed extension. Secondary: no NANOPULSE-AF enrollment-completion announcement by 2026-10-31.

  • FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. LOW resolves in 26d

    Kill line A weekly close below $4.95 ends the re-rating thesis by losing the March repurchase shelf identified in the 2026-09-07 assessment. Separately, a subsequent treasury disclosure below 0.0754 SOL per fully diluted share breaks the accumulation leg.

  • HUM Humana Inc. MEDIUM resolves in 27d

    Kill line A daily close below $383 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the advance above the 2026-08-31 adjusted reference close of $383.23.

  • DSGR Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. SUPREME no dated catalyst

    Kill line A daily close below $33.50 pushes the spread past 4% to the $35.00 contract price and signals the market repricing completion odds; a second HSR request, or no definitive proxy within roughly two months of the 2026-09-01 preliminary, would corroborate.

  • CXW CoreCivic, Inc. HIGH no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $31 (loses the August consolidation band at $33.29–$33.96 under the 2026-09-04 high of $34.71); secondarily, the ICE facility-purchase discussions called preliminary on 2026-08-05 producing no announced sale by the Q3 print around 2026-11-04.

  • HAE Haemonetics Corporation HIGH no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $91 fills the entire 2026-08-18 CSL-agreement gap and returns price beneath the 2026-08-14 close of $90.80; secondarily, a ~2026-11-05 Q2 FY2027 call that quantifies the CSL transition as immaterial to FY2027 or leaves the +4–7% organic range unchanged.

  • SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. HIGH no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $17 surrenders the $17.05 shelf reclaimed after the 2026-08-03 Q2 print and returns price to the $14.13–$17.05 June–July range; secondarily, a Q3 print (est. ~2026-11-02) with revenue down more than the guided 1–2% sequentially, or any trim to the $231–233M FY2026 guide.

  • AAMI Acadian Asset Management Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $84 (erases the post-Q2 repricing and returns price to the 2026-06-17 block zone near $77.25); secondarily, negative net client cash flows at the Q3 print near 2026-10-29 after +$4.3B in Q2.

  • ASMB Assembly Biosciences, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $30 gives back the ground built after the 2026-08-13 Q2 print and puts price under the late-August trading area; secondarily, the year-end 2026 opt-in decision and both Phase 2 initiations slipping into 2027 at the Q3 print with no new date attached.

  • ASST Strive, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $21 invalidates the momentum thesis; a subsequent company disclosure showing declining bitcoin per diluted common share while common issuance continues also breaks the financing case.

  • ASTH Astrana Health Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $34 (erases the recovery leg off the early-August drawdown and returns the shares to post-print lows), or Q3 revenue printing under the $1.000B low end of guidance with the $255–280M FY adjusted EBITDA range trimmed.

  • ATRC AtriCure, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $47 hands back the entire September leg — the 2026-09-02 Needham re-mark to $64 and the 2026-09-04 S&P SmallCap 600 announcement — and puts the mid-August $43–44 shelf back in play. Secondary condition: the 2026-09-21 inclusion passing with FY2026 revenue still $602–610M into the Q3 print.

  • CAI Caris Life Sciences, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $22 breaks the post-2026-08-05 gap structure and puts price under the lowest posted Street target (Piper Sandler's $21 Hold sits just below). Secondary: FY26 guidance reiterated at $1.030–1.040B rather than raised at the ~November Q3 print.

  • CDNA CareDx, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $44 gives back the whole August $46.69–$48.61 band and marks the post-guidance-raise repricing as a one-off. Secondary: a MolDX/CMS billing or coding article after 2026-08-30 capping surveillance frequency, or FY2026 revenue guidance trimmed below $490M at the Q3 print.

  • CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $35 surrenders the shelf reclaimed in the week ending 2026-08-21 and puts price back inside the outbreak drawdown range; secondarily, the 2026-10-28 Q3 print showing comparable-sales transactions negative YoY against +1.0% in Q2 2026.

  • CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $200 gives back the 2026-08-26 reaction gap and returns price into the pre-print range that ended with the $191.95 close of 2026-08-21; secondary, the ~2026-12-02 Q3 FY2027 print landing net new ARR below the $333M record or leaving the $1.350B–$1.359B FY2027 net-new-ARR guide unraised.

  • DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $64 hands back the 2026-08-21 breakout session (+11.60% to $71.47) and returns the shares beneath the $64.00 12-analyst mean target that stood that day; secondarily, consecutive EIA distillate builds with the diesel crack back under $100/bbl, or Q3 throughput under the 296,000–316,000 bpd guide at the ~2026-11-04 (est.) print.

  • EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $38 ends the post-divestiture re-rate and puts price back toward Goldman's $36 target of 2026-08-11; secondary break is the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) pushing Phase 3 CIRRUS-HCM initiation out of the guided Q4 2026 window into 2027.

  • FRNM Freenome, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $14 invalidates the post-approval price thesis; separately, no announced US commercial launch of SimpleScreen CRC by 2026-12-31 invalidates the commercial-timing case.

  • GTLB GitLab Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $44 hands back the 2026-09-02 earnings gap and puts price under the $45–$48 broker target cluster set that day; a Q3 FY27 print beneath the $281M guidance floor (~2026-12-02, est.) would confirm the deceleration case.

  • KRO Kronos Worldwide, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $8.00 gives back the late-August breakout and returns price inside the mid-August $8.20 shelf; secondarily, Q3 2026 results (~2026-11-04, est.) showing TiO2 average selling prices flat or down sequentially, or volumes back toward 132-135kt with inventory no longer declining, would break the pricing half of the recovery thesis.

  • LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $39 (loses the shelf where 5,118,099 sponsor shares cleared at $43.16 on 2026-08-10, with no tested support until the spring $32.51/$28.60 transaction prices), or a Q3 print around 2026-10-22 that cuts the FY2026 comparable center revenue guide of 7.9%–8.3%.

  • MGNX MacroGenics, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $3.90 (unwinds the three-month advance and returns price to the pre-2026-07-23 range); secondarily, ESMO poster 1020P on 2026-10-23 passing with SCCHN data that does not extend beyond the Stage 1 bar, or an equity raise priced into strength.

  • NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence plc MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $16.00 unwinds the bulk of the post-2026-08-10 advance and returns price into the $15–$17 target cluster set on 2026-08-11; secondarily, the early-September Optiq Chat / Optiq Bridge launches passing with no dollar-denominated disclosure, or a Q3 print (~2026-11-12) at or below the low end of the $1,105–1,108M / $0.22–0.24 guide.

  • PMTS CPI Card Group Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $25 ends the deleveraging re-rating leg, measured against the 2026-08-28 close of $28.83 and the $30.50 52-week high; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03) that again pairs double-digit revenue growth with low-to-mid single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and no improvement on 2.7x net leverage.

  • PSX Phillips 66 MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $239 (back beneath the 2026-08-06 Wells Fargo Overweight target the August advance cleared, with no base identified between there and the $256.09 high); secondarily, a Q3 print showing realized refining margin back toward the Q1 2026 level of $10.11/bbl.

  • RCMT RCM Technologies, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $34.00 breaks the earnings-move structure; independently, Q3 Engineering revenue at or below $39.5 million or consolidated gross margin below 25.7% invalidates the operating case.

  • SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $8.00 forfeits the June shelf that absorbed the July drawdown; secondary break if the late-Q4-2026 FDA meeting passes without an accelerated-approval path, or a priced follow-on under the 2026-08-06 $200M prospectus lands before any data event.

  • SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $19 gives back the advance that followed the 2026-08-05 print and ends the recovery-leg read; secondary, the 2H-2026 DM1/FSHD siRNA cohort data passing 2026-12-31 with no readout, or Q3 ELEVIDYS revenue landing materially under the $98.1M Q2 figure with a further cut to the $1.2–1.3B guide.

  • STLN Starling Oncology, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $5.25 breaks the post-Q2 consolidation shelf and puts the August revaluation back in play; secondarily, a cut to the FY2026 revenue guide of $650–670M or to the $2–7M adjusted EBITDA range at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.), or a medical loss ratio above the guided 80–90% band.

  • U Unity Software Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $36 unwinds the entire 2026-08-06 re-rating and returns price to the June–July range. Secondary: Q3 Strategic Grow landing under the $380M guide floor at the ~2026-11-05 print, or a downgrade/target cut out of the $45–55 analyst cluster.

  • XNCR Xencor, Inc. MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $18 retraces the entire post-settlement, post-Q2 advance back into the pre-2026-07-17 range; separately, an XmAb819 ESMO oral on 2026-10-23 to 10-27 that does not support the stated 2027 pivotal start breaks the pipeline leg independently of the chart.

  • ZLAB Zai Lab Limited MEDIUM no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $22 surrenders most of the three-month advance off the 2026-08-28 close of $26.08 and leaves the shares ~36% under the $34.44 52-week high; secondarily, ESMO ending 2026-10-27 with no first-line ES-SCLC registrational Phase 3 committed removes the leg's driver.

  • APLD Applied Digital Corporation LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $24 extends the failure of the $25.56 April base toward the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an ATM reactivation or registered common offering disclosed in an 8-K, or a Q1 FY27 print (carried for 2026-10-08 by stockanalysis.com) with the recurring rental line no better than the $50.6M of Q4 FY26.

  • BMEA Biomea Fusion, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $1.60 unwinds the re-rating that followed the 2026-08-24 COVALENT-211 enrollment release and puts the shares in the lower half of the $0.872–$2.990 52-week range; secondarily, COVALENT-212 enrollment completion not announced by 2026-12-31 after the Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 topline move.

  • CRCT Cricut, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A daily close below $5.16, the low of the 2026-08-05 post-print gap session; secondarily, the ~2026-09-30 fall-launch window passing with no product announced, or the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print landing gross margin near the 58.9% ex-item level with Products revenue down double digits again.

  • CRSR Corsair Gaming, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $10.75 breaks the recovery leg off the 2026-08-21 close of $10.93 and puts the market back inside Goldman's $11 target; secondary confirmation is Components & Systems gross margin printing below the 26.3% posted in Q2 FY26 at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 report.

  • DPRO Draganfly Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $4.70 (surrenders the 50-day average of $4.67 that the 2026-08-13 tariff and 2026-09-01 FAA exemption sequence lifted price off); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-10 est.) with revenue under $3M and no tariff-attributable order named.

  • DTIL Precision BioSciences, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $6.50 hands back more than the full 10.3% three-month advance and breaks the post-EASL range; secondarily, the guided year-end 2026 PBGENE-HBV update slipping into 2027 at the ~2026-11-05 Q3 print, or material ATM issuance appearing with no data event to absorb it.

  • EDIT Editas Medicine, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $2.75 surrenders the three-month advance into the 2026-09-04 close of $3.23 and returns the shares toward the May 2026 offering price of $2.25; secondarily, a takedown under the 2026-08-31 $400M shelf priced at a discount, or an EDIT-401 Phase 1/2 initiation that slips out of 2026.

  • INBX Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $104 breaks the August shelf defined by the 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 market closes; independently, reported failure on the prespecified primary endpoint in the 2026-09-08 HexAgon results ends the clinical thesis.

  • MRNA Moderna, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $130 puts the shares beneath the entire post-INTerpath-001 range, with no traded reference until the pre-data zone in the low $60s; secondarily, ESMO (2026-10-23 to 10-27) passing with no INTerpath-001 late-breaker, or a disclosed RFS hazard ratio materially weaker than KEYNOTE-942's 0.51.

  • OPRT Oportun Financial Corporation LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $7.00 ends the post-Q2 re-rating leg; secondarily, at the ~2026-11-04 Q3 print, an annualized net charge-off rate above the 12.0% top of the FY 11.7% +/- 30bp band, or a cut to the FY2026 adjusted EPS guide of $1.50-$1.65.

  • PATH UiPath, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $15 unwinds the entire August advance and returns the shares inside the $12–17 sell-side target band; secondary, a 2026-09-03 Q2 print with net new ARR at or under the ~$33M implied by guidance and no raise to the $2.058–2.063B FY2027 ARR range.

  • SIDU Sidus Space, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $2.15 takes out the shelf the 2026-08-28 close of $2.21 is resting on and resumes the round-trip toward the pre-mania base; secondarily, Transporter-18 moving out of its October 2026 window without a firm replacement date leaves no dated hard-tech event on the calendar.

  • SNAP Snap Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $5 round-trips the 2026-08-03 Q2 repricing and drops price under the entire $5.25–$8 target cluster set on 2026-08-04; secondarily, a Snap-specific state-AG settlement or litigation accrual disclosed in the next 10-Q, or Q3 revenue printing beneath the $1.70B low end of guidance.

  • TEM Tempus AI, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $58 retraces the entire 2026-08-19 post-readout gap and returns price to the pre-catalyst shelf; secondary conditions — the S-4 going effective with a Personalis special-meeting date beyond Q4 2026, or an antitrust second request.

  • VMI Valmont Industries, Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $470 breaks the pre-Investor-Day range floor and confirms the 2026 grid re-rating in this name is still unwinding; secondary condition, the ~2026-10-20 Q3 print passing with the FY26 ceiling still $23.50 and no weekly close back above $520.

  • VOR Vor Biopharma Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $20 loses the post-print consolidation and returns price into the $19–$21 shelf that capped the tape through early July 2026; secondary condition: ATM sales disclosed in the Q3 10-Q above the $48.4M July pace, or any slip in the 1H2027 UPSTREAM MG topline guide.

  • VSTS Vestis Corporation LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $12 (loses the early-September shelf around the 2026-09-02 insider purchase at $12.37 and returns price to the pre-Q3 range); secondarily, a Q4/FY2026 report that lands under the affirmed $2.680–2.735B sales range or the $310–315M adjusted EBITDA guide.

  • YSS York Space Systems Inc. LOW no dated catalyst

    Kill line A weekly close below $8.86 (the shelf printed after the 2026-08-13 guidance cut) confirms the 2026-08-18 and 2026-08-25 Space Force selections bought no bid; secondarily, an initial FY2027 outlook below the original FY2026 $545-595M range, or backlog falling again from $592.0M at the ~November Q3 print.

How we're scored

A confident model is easy. A calibrated one is the point.

When a pick resolves, it lands in the ledger above as played out or invalidated, dated, with a flag for whether the published kill line actually fired. As outcomes accumulate, the calibration question gets a public answer: does conviction predict the outcome — does SUPREME beat LOW, does a regime call hold? Strictly non-monetary — only whether the falsifiable claim was falsified.

The odds each tier stakes · published in advance

  • SUPREME 85%
  • HIGH 70%
  • MEDIUM 55%
  • LOW 40%

Each tier claims this chance of playing out. The Brier score above measures the gap between these stated odds and reality.

Every version of these odds, and when it took effect

  • v1 from the first pick supreme 90% · high 75% · medium 60% · low 50% Authored anchors, never validated. Retained verbatim so no published score is ever restated.
  • v2 from 27 August 2026 supreme 85% · high 70% · medium 55% · low 40% Pre-registered 2026-08-26 alongside a rewritten writer instruction that states these anchors to the model and asks for a probability rather than a position size. Spans 45 points instead of 10; centred near the 45% base rate.

A pick is scored under the odds in force on the day its dossier was written, so a revision never reaches back. Superseded odds stay on this page: a number published in advance is only checkable if the version it replaced is still here to check it against.

Common questions

Do AI stock predictions actually work?
There's no honest one-word answer — only a record. FrontierPicks publishes one: every pick ships a dated, falsifiable kill line, and a real closing price is what settles it — played out, invalidated, or still undecided if neither line has printed. The ones that reached a verdict are scored with a Brier score. The point isn't a headline accuracy figure but that the calls are checkable: a model's predictions only "work" if they survive the lines they published, and that's exactly what the scoreboard above measures.
How is FrontierPicks scored?
Every pick ships with a published kill line. When it resolves it's marked played out or invalidated — dated, with whether the line fired. Across resolved picks we compute a Brier score (forecasting accuracy) and break play-out rates out by conviction tier, so you can see whether SUPREME actually beats LOW. Strictly non-monetary.
How does a pick resolve, exactly?
Mechanically, against the pick's own published kill line — no discretion. The reference is the real closing price the day the thesis was last stated. The kill is the price in the published line ("close below $X"); the target is a 1:1 realisation of that same published risk (as far above the entry as the kill is below it). Walking real daily closes forward, whichever is hit first decides it: a close at/below the kill is invalidated, a close at/above the target is played out. "Weekly close" lines are graded on weekly closes. A pick whose stop is within 2% (too tight to grade on price) or whose kill isn't a clean price level stays open. Graded only on whether the published claim was falsified.
Why does the score start in June 2026?
We rebuilt the research pipeline in June 2026, and a pick is graded on the thesis as the rebuilt pipeline stated it — from the day that thesis was written, not from the day the ticker entered coverage. Those are different dates for most of this record: 190 of the 332 resolved picks were first published before June 2026, and 2 carry an outcome date from before it, backfilled from outcomes the previous system had already written. So this is not a clean slate — it is a record of theses restated by the current pipeline, over a corpus much of which it inherited.
What is a Brier score?
The mean squared error between the probability a conviction tier implies (SUPREME≈0.9 … LOW≈0.5) and the binary outcome. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. For a rough reference band: expert human forecasters in Tetlock's Good Judgment work are commonly cited around 0.08, and the strongest LLM forecasters in 2024–25 evaluations around 0.10. Those benchmarks score different questions, so treat them as scale markers, not a like-for-like comparison.
What does the scoreboard measure?
Whether each falsifiable claim was falsified — graded against its own published kill line. It scores the reasoning, not a trade.
What happens when a pick is wrong?
It's marked invalidated, dated, and kept on the public record — with whether the published kill line fired first. Being wrong in public, on the record, is the point: it's what makes the score trustworthy.