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Research through the 9 October 2026 close

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This week · daily digest

What changed this week.

Updated ·

Macro regime · as of

The US market backdrop, right now.

Macro view →
Regime call Risk-off → Neutral

VIX · 8 October 2026 close

15.41

calm

Breadth · % above 50-day average

40.7 %

mixed

S&P 500 vs 200d EMA

+7.1 %

above trend

Conviction moves · last 7 days

Where conviction shifted this week.

40 stocks changed conviction in the seven days to : 21 raised, 19 cut. Raises first.

Conviction-tier moves across FrontierPicks dossiers in the seven days to 11 October 2026
Name Date From To
LTRX None Medium
OCC None Medium
ONON None Medium
SGHT None Medium
SILC None Medium
VEON None Medium
ASO None Low
CIEN Low Medium
CSCO Low Medium
CVX Low Medium
ECO Low Medium
FPS Low Medium
FRO Low Medium
INTR None Low
INTU Low Medium
MRVL Low Medium
NEO Low Medium
SBS None Low
SEI Low Medium
SNX Low Medium

+20 more — every change, day by day.

New & refreshed · last 7 days

Fresh dossiers this week.

All dossiers →
COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. fresh Low Coinbase Global shares still trade on bitcoin because its new clearing, Citigroup and Deribit businesses have not yet reached revenue. The third-quarter report, expected around 29 October 2026, shows whether subscription-and-services… Theme leader · Crypto exchanges & financials catalyst · AAMI Acadian Asset Management Inc. Medium Acadian Asset Management's rerating rests on ten straight quarters of client inflows lifting fees and margins. Its third-quarter report, expected around 29 October 2026, shows whether flows stayed positive and fees held at least $176.5… Business pivot catalyst · AAPL Apple Inc. Low Apple's shares sit 0.2% below their 52-week high with much of the premium iPhone and foldable cycle priced in, and analysts say memory costs offset the revenue gains. The 16 October 2026 iPhone Duo preorders and the 2 November 2026 fiscal… Event-driven · Mega-cap AI platforms catalyst · ABBV AbbVie Inc. Medium AbbVie's growth rests on Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which more than offset Humira's decline and back 2026 revenue guidance of about $67.6 billion. The 30 October 2026 third-quarter report shows whether both drugs still grow above 20%. Business pivot · Oncology & immunology · Precision biotech & therapeutics catalyst · ABSI Absci Corporation Low Absci Corporation's shares still turn on whether its antibody ABS-201 grows human hair better than placebo; the interim HEADLINE readout, guided for the second half of 2026, settles the case by 31 December 2026. Event-driven · Precision biotech & therapeutics analysed · ADBE Adobe Inc. Low Adobe keeps beating forecasts, yet AI-agent fears hold the shares 33% below their 52-week high; the mid-December fourth-quarter report tests whether recurring-revenue growth holds near the 10.2% target. Business pivot · AI enterprise software analysed · ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Medium Adaptive Biotechnologies' clonoSEQ test won NCCN and International Myeloma Society backing in September 2026, yet the shares slid to $26.09 by 8 October 2026; the Q3 report, expected around 4 November 2026, shows whether test volume… Distinct case · Medtech & diagnostics catalyst · ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Low Astera Labs' Scorpio switch ramp still supports guided third-quarter revenue of $540–560 million, but the shares gave back their index-speculation rally to close at $347.05 on 8 October 2026. The 3 November 2026 report decides whether that… Picks and shovels · Networking & optical · AI datacenter infrastructure catalyst · ALVO Alvotech Medium Alvotech's shares turn on FDA approval of its Simponi and Eylea biosimilars, reported due 4 December 2026. The 5 October 2026 FDA clearance of more U.S. output from its Reykjavik plant makes approval likelier, and a manufacturing-related… Event-driven · Binary-catalyst biotech analysed ·

Themes · accelerating · as of

The theme clusters picking up.

Themes in motion →

Accelerating · confidence 35%

AI enterprise software

Application software names are being re-rated on new analyst calls: Piper Sandler made a bullish case for Shopify (SHOP) on agentic shopping on Oct. 5 and JP Morgan raised its target to $200 on Oct. 6, while JP Morgan upgraded PTC (PTC) to Neutral with a $205 target the same day. The group is new and accelerating but thin: PTC is up 50.3% over one month even after Oppenheimer downgraded it to Perform on Oct. 6, and ServiceTitan (TTAN) rests on TD Cowen's Buy rating and $100 target, reiterated on Oct. 7.

SHOP PTC TTAN
Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 60%

Cybersecurity

Security software is getting new attention from AI developers and government: Anthropic launched a cyber-defense mission on Oct. 8, Rubrik (RBRK) put its Claude-powered Code Guardian into private preview, and U.S. agencies warned on Oct. 8 that a China-based Cybersecurity company was helping hackers target critical infrastructure. The theme is still accelerating: Amerx initiated Zscaler (ZS) at Buy with a $305 target on Oct. 8, BMO raised its Okta (OKTA) target to $245 on Oct. 9, and Needham raised CrowdStrike (CRWD) to $310 on Oct. 9. CrowdStrike joins the momentum leaders this week.

ZSOKTACRWDRBRKNTSKS
Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 65%

Emerging markets

Brazilian equities are rallying on the election: Brazilian stocks jumped 14% on Oct. 5 after Jair Bolsonaro's first-round win, and Bloomberg reported on Oct. 9 that he leads Lula in the runoff. The theme is still accelerating: UBS raised its XP (XP) target to $37 on Oct. 8 and Goldman Sachs raised Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) to $10.5 on Oct. 9, although HSBC cut Itaú to Hold on Oct. 8, and a runoff loss for Bolsonaro would remove the catalyst. Itaú joins Sabesp (SBS), Inter & Co (INTR) and XP this week, and VEON dropped off.

XPSBSINTR ITUB
Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 65%

Medtech & diagnostics

Diagnostics and genomics names are rising on dated clinical and regulatory news: GRAIL (GRAL) said on Oct. 5 it will present new NHS-Galleri trial data at ESMO, Quanterix (QTRX) won Chinese regulatory approval for its Simoa neurology testing on Oct. 7, and Myriad Genetics (MYGN) announced a prostate cancer genomic score collaboration with SOPHiA GENETICS on Oct. 8. The theme is still accelerating: GRAIL is up 71.2% over one month, and the sell-side keeps adding coverage, with William Blair initiating Revvity (RVTY) at Outperform on Oct. 6 and Barclays initiating Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) at Overweight with a $485 target on Oct. 7. Revvity, Mettler-Toledo (MTD) and Intuitive Surgical join the group this week, and Natera (NTRA) dropped off the leader list.

GRALMYGNQTRXILMNTWSTCDNARVTY MTD ISRG
Dossiers in this theme →

Catalysts ahead · as of

The dated catalysts on the clock.

Full calendar →

This week 33

CRDO

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

Product

in 1d
LTRX

Lantronix, Inc.

Product

in 1d
AAPL

Apple Inc.

Product

in 2d
AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.

Earnings

in 2d
ASST

Strive, Inc.

Event

in 2d
COHU

Cohu, Inc.

Event

in 2d
GS

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Earnings

in 2d
HALO

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.

Earnings

in 2d

+25 more

Next week 27

DELL

Dell Technologies Inc.

Event

in 9d
GE

GE Aerospace

Earnings

in 9d
ISRG

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Earnings

in 9d
NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

Earnings

in 9d
RTX

RTX Corporation

Earnings

in 9d
S

SentinelOne, Inc.

Earnings

in 9d
VICR

Vicor Corporation

Earnings

in 9d
IBM

International Business Machines Corporation

Earnings

in 10d

+19 more

Later 107

GRAL

GRAIL, Inc.

Product

in 14d
INTR

Inter & Co. Inc. Class A

Event

in 14d
SBS

COMPANHIA DE SANEAMENTO B SICO DO ESTADO DE SAO PAULO-SABESP ADS'S

Event

in 14d
SMMT

Summit Therapeutics Inc.

Event

in 14d
XP

XP Inc.

Event

in 14d
CLS

Celestica, Inc.

Earnings

in 15d
BA

The Boeing Company

Earnings

in 16d
BE

Bloom Energy Corporation

Earnings

in 16d

+99 more

Scoreboard · last 7 days

Picks that closed this week.

ABSI Absci Corporation Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−7.4 pp) ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−5.9 pp) ASST Strive, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−9.6 pp) ATI ATI Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−1.5 pp) CAT Caterpillar Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−5.0 pp) DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−5.5 pp) FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−8.2 pp) GLW Corning Incorporated Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−4.2 pp) MRNA Moderna, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+14.3 pp) NET Cloudflare, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+0.9 pp) OKTA Okta, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+7.3 pp) PLSE Pulse Biosciences, Inc Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+6.1 pp) RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−9.7 pp) TER Teradyne, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−9.9 pp) WT WisdomTree, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−7.1 pp) AEHR Aehr Test Systems Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−13.8 pp) FORM FormFactor, Inc. FormFactor, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−7.5 pp) PGEN Precigen, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−9.9 pp) RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−7.2 pp) STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+0.5 pp) TWLO Twilio Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−11.1 pp) TXG 10x Genomics, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−16.0 pp) WDC Western Digital Corporation Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−1.1 pp) ILMN Illumina, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+1.0 pp) JNJ Johnson & Johnson Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−3.5 pp) MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+5.1 pp) COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−2.0 pp) EPRX Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−2.5 pp) IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+5.1 pp) NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence plc Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−0.9 pp) NTAP NetApp, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+2.6 pp) P Everpure, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+5.8 pp) RVTY Revvity, Inc. Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+4.2 pp) SRZN Surrozen, Inc. Pick closed: trailed the S&P 500 (−4.3 pp) TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Pick closed: beat the S&P 500 (+7.6 pp)

Week-ahead note

The week-ahead read.

As of 9 October 2026, the market has moved from risk-off to a neutral regime, with the VIX volatility index calm at 15.41 but only 40.7% of the 1,000 most liquid US stocks above their 50-day exponential average. Healthcare leads momentum: KOD is up 179.0% over one month, and IOVA and MRNA are up 214.7% and 188.6% over three months. Day over day, the semiconductor foundry equipment and oil-and-energy themes reached…