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FrontierPicks

This week · daily digest

What changed this week.

Updated ·

Macro regime · as of

The US market backdrop, right now.

Macro view →
Regime call Risk-on

VIX

15.13

elevated

Breadth · % above 200d

59.3 %

mixed

S&P 500 vs 200d EMA

+7.2 %

above trend

Conviction moves · last 7 days

Where conviction shifted this week.

84 names changed conviction tier across the FrontierPicks dossiers in the seven days to .

Conviction-tier moves across FrontierPicks dossiers in the seven days to 2026-08-26
Name Date From To
UUUU LOW MEDIUM
AA MEDIUM LOW
ACHR MEDIUM LOW
AEM NONE LOW
AIRO MEDIUM LOW
AKTS LOW MEDIUM
APPN MEDIUM LOW
ARCT NONE LOW
ARHS NONE LOW
AZTA MEDIUM LOW
BHC NONE LOW
CARG MEDIUM LOW
CLMT MEDIUM LOW
CLW LOW MEDIUM
CMG LOW MEDIUM
CNC MEDIUM LOW
CODI LOW MEDIUM
CROX MEDIUM LOW
CRWD MEDIUM LOW
CVI LOW MEDIUM
EDRY MEDIUM LOW
ELE NONE MEDIUM
ELVN LOW MEDIUM
ERO MEDIUM LOW
ESTC NONE LOW
FDMT NONE LOW
FOSL LOW MEDIUM
GSHD MEDIUM LOW
GTN MEDIUM LOW
GWRE MEDIUM LOW
HOOD LOW MEDIUM
HPK LOW MEDIUM
INNV LOW MEDIUM
IT MEDIUM LOW
KELYA MEDIUM LOW
KGS MEDIUM LOW
LBRX LOW MEDIUM
LILA MEDIUM LOW
LQDA MEDIUM LOW
MAMA MEDIUM LOW
MANH MEDIUM LOW
MASS NONE MEDIUM
MCS LOW MEDIUM
MNPR MEDIUM LOW
MNTN NONE LOW
MOH MEDIUM LOW
MPWR MEDIUM LOW
MRNA LOW MEDIUM
MTW MEDIUM LOW
MXL MEDIUM LOW
NIQ LOW MEDIUM
NVEC MEDIUM LOW
OABI NONE LOW
OMER MEDIUM LOW
OOMA MEDIUM LOW
OWL LOW MEDIUM
PESI MEDIUM LOW
PII MEDIUM LOW
PUBM LOW MEDIUM
SANM MEDIUM LOW
SKM MEDIUM LOW
SMRT LOW MEDIUM
SMTC MEDIUM LOW
SMWB MEDIUM LOW
SPCX MEDIUM LOW
TAL MEDIUM LOW
THC MEDIUM LOW
UROY LOW MEDIUM
VOYG NONE MEDIUM
VRNS MEDIUM LOW
WHD MEDIUM LOW
XGN NONE LOW
XOS NONE LOW
ASML MEDIUM LOW
AXTI MEDIUM LOW
CEG MEDIUM LOW
HPE MEDIUM LOW
JBHT MEDIUM LOW
LITE MEDIUM LOW
SIMO MEDIUM LOW
TSEM MEDIUM LOW
XMTR MEDIUM LOW
XPO MEDIUM LOW
AEHR MEDIUM LOW

New & refreshed · last 7 days

Fresh dossiers this week.

All dossiers →
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. fresh LOW The $110 shelf that defined the August leg is gone: the 2026-08-24 close of $107.63 fully unwinds the 2026-08-04 policy gap (pre-gap close $110.21), three sessions after a second $600,000,000 ATM was filed on 2026-08-21. Q2 revenue +86%… Cyclical recovery · Networking & optical catalyst · AEHR Aehr Test Systems fresh LOW Wafer-level burn-in toll on AI silicon: FY2027 guided $130–150M against $50.0M in FY2026, guide unamended. But the 2026-07-21 shelf at $98.91 gave way on the 2026-08-24 close of $96.43 — a fifth straight lower close from $145.61… Cyclical recovery · Semi foundry & equipment catalyst · AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. fresh MEDIUM AI-compute narrative re-accelerated on the 2026-07-23 analyst event — named multi-gigawatt Anthropic/OpenAI commitments, Helios rack-scale ramp, TAM lifted to $2T by 2030 — drawing a fresh upgrade cluster (Roth $650, Cantor $700, Futurum… Cyclical recovery · AI chips & memory catalyst · AMSC American Superconductor Corporation fresh LOW Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40… Cyclical recovery · Industrial power & grid catalyst · APLD Applied Digital Corporation fresh LOW BTC→AI landlord whose operating build (>1 GW contracted, ~$31B backlog, 175 MW live) has decoupled from an equity that halved from $49.65 to a $25.79 low, now bouncing off the $25.56 April base into a binary FY26 print on 2026-07-27.… Special situation · GPU cloud & neoclouds catalyst · ARCB ArcBest Corporation fresh LOW The twice-tested $135.76/$135.89 shelf lost on the 2026-08-24 close of $134.45, a 4.2% drop taken with the whole transport complex after Trump's 50% Canada auto/truck/parts/steel tariff post. No issuer catalyst until Q3 results… Special situation · Freight & logistics · Cyclical industrials catalyst · ARM Arm Holdings plc fresh LOW Data-center royalty doubled YoY for a second quarter, but Q2 FY27 royalty growth is guided to ~13% against 22% delivered. No Arm-specific disclosure has landed since 2026-07-29, so the bid is set by third parties — BofA's 2026-08-13… Cyclical recovery · AI chips & memory catalyst · ASML ASML Holding N.V. fresh LOW The $1,740 July band floor is being tested: the 2026-08-24 close of $1,740.13 sits on it after the $1,805 shelf reclaim failed. Consensus has been flat at $2,195 for a fourth reading, nothing ASML-dated resolves before 2026-10-14, and the… Cyclical recovery · Semi foundry & equipment catalyst · ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. fresh LOW Deployment-cadence leg goes dead: the 2026-08-24 close of $62.35 (-9.2%, per GuruFocus) erased the 08-21 reclaim and broke below the 08-20 intraday low of $62.89, with BlueBirds 14/15/16 still undated 15 days after "ready to ship shortly."… Retail squeeze · Space economy catalyst ·

Themes · accelerating · as of

The theme clusters picking up.

Themes in motion →

Accelerating · confidence 54%

Critical materials & rare earths

Two separate drivers with dates: gold at three-month highs (2026-08-21) with AEM's Radisson placement (2026-08-24) and a Jefferies Buy initiation on IAG at $24 (2026-08-21); and US materials policy — Trump's $1.55B rare-earth move (2026-08-24), MP surging (2026-08-21), AA's gallium plant groundbreaking (2026-08-24), CLF rallying on the 50% Canada tariff threat (2026-08-24). A gold reversal below the level that produced the 08-21 high would split this cluster in two, since the precious-metals and policy-metals legs share no common catalyst.

Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 54%

Crypto exchanges & financials

Bitcoin above $77,000 (2026-08-21) and near $80,000 (2026-08-25) is carrying the whole cluster: MSTR raised $2B with holdings turned profitable on a 24% BTC move (2026-08-24), CRCL drew a Bernstein $140 case and a Susquehanna PT to $92 (2026-08-24), BMNR bought $81M of ether (2026-08-24), PURR moved on Trump's Hyperliquid comments (2026-08-20). This is beta to one price, not eight theses — a BTC round-trip back below the 08-21 level invalidates the theme, not just individual names.

Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 26%

Housing, homebuilders & proptech

New and resting almost entirely on one name: JELD's one-month score (115.0) is more than triple its three-month (35.9) after appearing in an industrials movers list (2026-08-19), against US home-builder sentiment edging higher in August (08-17). PRCH is decelerating (1m 44.6 vs 3m 79.1) and OPEN has no data or headline at all — three tickers with one real signal is too small a sample to call a housing rotation, and a flat JELD week ends it.

Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 55%

Medtech & diagnostics

Dated, name-level catalysts rather than tape alone: TEM FDA clearance for Tempus ECG-PH (2026-08-24), PSNL new VA MVP task order (2026-08-20), WGS Genetics in Medicine rapid-genome data (2026-08-24), TWST 52-week high the same day Scorpion Capital disclosed a short (2026-08-19). Status downgrades if the next two weeks bring only index-roundup mentions and no new clearance/contract prints.

Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 48%

Oncology & immunology

The Moderna/Merck cancer-vaccine breakthrough coverage (2026-08-20) and 'Moderna Doubles' (2026-08-19) reset attention across mRNA names; ARCT's one-month score (157.7) now exceeds its three-month (102.7), the signature of new rather than carried momentum. The leader has already given back ground — MRNA slid on 2026-08-24 after the rally and its 3m score (197.3) sits above its 1m (157.8); a second down week in MRNA with no new trial data would make this maturing.

Dossiers in this theme →

Accelerating · confidence 50%

Space economy

Policy is the fresh input: Trump's national space transportation policy targeting 1,000 launches a year by 2030 (2026-08-21), Goldman's $1.8T-by-2035 'Second Space Age' note (2026-08-18), the SpaceX IPO at a reported $1.77T valuation as a comp (2026-08-25), plus RKLB's share of a $981M Space Force test-infrastructure program (2026-08-18). Counter-evidence already present: YSS took three PT cuts and a Canaccord downgrade to Hold (2026-08-18 to 08-20) despite its own Space Force selection — policy headlines are not translating into estimate raises at every name.

Dossiers in this theme →

Catalysts ahead · as of

The dated catalysts on the clock.

Full calendar →

This week 173

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

earnings

today

Astera Labs, Inc.

earnings

today
AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

earnings

today

American Superconductor Corporation

earnings

today

Applied Digital Corporation

earnings

today
ARM

Arm Holdings plc

earnings

today

ASML Holding N.V.

earnings

today

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

earnings

today

+165 more

Next week 77

Agilysys, Inc.

earnings

in 7d
APH

Amphenol Corporation

earnings

in 7d

Broadcom Inc.

earnings

in 7d

Extreme Networks, Inc.

earnings

in 7d
HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

earnings

in 7d

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.

earnings

in 7d
MYE

Myers Industries, Inc.

earnings

in 7d
NKE

Nike, Inc.

earnings

in 7d

+69 more

Later 142

Apple Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Amplitude, Inc.

earnings

in 14d
ATI

ATI Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Backblaze, Inc.

earnings

in 14d
CCJ

Cameco Corporation

earnings

in 14d
EPC

Edgewell Personal Care Company

earnings

in 14d

Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.

earnings

in 14d

Genius Sports Limited

earnings

in 14d

+134 more

Resolved · last 7 days

The theses that closed out.

AAON AAON, Inc. (AAON) Thesis invalidated ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) Thesis invalidated ADBE Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Thesis played out AIP Arteris, Inc. (AIP) Thesis invalidated AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Thesis invalidated ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Thesis invalidated ALNT Allient Inc. (ALNT) Thesis invalidated AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Thesis invalidated AVR Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (AVR) Thesis invalidated BHE Benchmark Electronics (BHE) Thesis invalidated BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Thesis played out BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Thesis invalidated BMNR BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) Thesis played out DGII Digi International Inc. (DGII) Thesis invalidated GFS GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS) Thesis invalidated HTFL Heartflow, Inc. (HTFL) Thesis played out NET Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Thesis invalidated NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Thesis played out PLPC Preformed Line Products Company (PLPC) Thesis invalidated POWL Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) Thesis invalidated RH Thesis invalidated SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Thesis played out TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX) Thesis played out TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) Thesis invalidated ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Thesis invalidated XNCR Xencor, Inc. (XNCR) Thesis played out EPAM EPAM SYSTEMS, INC. (EPAM) Thesis played out TIC TIC Solutions, Inc (TIC) Thesis played out CYRX CryoPort, Inc. (CYRX) Thesis played out GSM Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) Thesis invalidated HOV Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Class A (HOV) Thesis invalidated IESC IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC) Thesis invalidated LNC Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) Thesis invalidated PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Thesis played out WIX Wix.com Ltd. (WIX) Thesis played out G Genpact Limited (G) Thesis played out IQ iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) Thesis invalidated SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Thesis played out TASK TaskUs, Inc. (TASK) Thesis played out TEAM Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Thesis played out

Week-ahead note

The week-ahead read.

Risk-on holds for a second session: VIX at 15.13, SPY 7.2% above its 200-EMA, and 59.3% of names above their own — healthy, but only marginally. Momentum leadership sits in a narrow, high-beta corner rather than the megacap complex: RFAI tops the board at a 377.4 score on a 380.4% three-month move, and healthcare supplies the bulk of the rest (MRNA 187.2, OABI 126.3, AMLX 95.3), with EDRY the lone industrial and…