Journal ·
Stock market on Wednesday, 11 November 2026
The read of the US stock market after the close: the market regime, what drove it and what to watch next.
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Market breadth rose above the 60% line the regime rules require, and that was the last missing condition for a risk-on call. At the close, 612 of 998 names were above their own 50-day EMA (exponential moving average), a 61.3% share. That clears the line by a thin margin, so breadth is the input closest to its threshold. The other two inputs are not close. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed 3.9% above its 200-day EMA, against the 0.5% the rules ask for. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.49. That is in the calm band, under 18, and far below the 28 trigger. The close-of-day read is risk-on.
Key numbers
Levels at the 11 November 2026 close, except rates, the credit spread and Fed funds as of 9 November 2026; rates as of 10 November 2026. Weekly and monthly figures name their period.
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Flip from neutral |
| VIX | 17.49 | Calm |
| Stocks above their 50-day average | 61.3% (612/998) | Healthy |
| SPY close | 759.81 | +3.9% vs 200-EMA (731.5) |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.88% | -2bps week over week |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.56% | -2bps week over week |
| 10Y-2Y spread | 0.25% | -13bps week over week |
| 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.20% | -4bps week over week |
| Real 10Y rate | 2.68% | +2bps week over week |
| High-yield credit spread | 3.34% | +2bps week over week |
| Fed funds | 3.88% | — |
| Initial jobless claims | 189K (week ending 31 October 2026) | -6K week over week |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% (October 2026) | — |
| Nonfarm payrolls | 159.3M (October 2026) | — |
| Housing starts | 1,221K (September 2026) | — |
Regime assessment
This suggests the index's uptrend now has broad participation behind it. When most stocks clear their medium-term trend, gains depend less on a handful of large names. Volatility is subdued and the index sits well above its long-term trend. Neither shows stress.
Rates and credit are context for the call; they do not move it. Federal Reserve data show the gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields narrowed 13bps (basis points) to 0.25% in the week to 10 November 2026. That was the largest weekly move among the rate series. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell 4bps to 2.20% over the same week. This suggests the narrowing came partly from softer inflation expectations at the long end. The high-yield credit spread was 3.34% on 9 November 2026, up 2bps on the week. That is a small move and does not point to credit strain.
The forward view is that any change to the call is most likely to come from breadth, because it sits just above its line while SPY and the VIX are far from theirs. That view is wrong if the call changes because SPY falls to within 0.5% of its 200-day EMA, or the VIX reaches 28, while breadth stays above 60%.
What would change the call
Risk-on is held by SPY more than 0.5% above its 200-day EMA (now +3.9%), breadth above 60% (now 61.3%) and VIX below 28 (now 17.49).
It drops to neutral if any one of these happens:
- SPY falls to within 0.5% of its 200-day EMA.
- Breadth falls to 60% or below.
- VIX reaches 28.
It turns risk-off if any one of these happens:
- SPY closes more than 2% below its 200-day EMA (now +3.9%).
- Breadth falls under 40% (now 61.3%).
- VIX rises above 28 (now 17.49).
What to watch
- The next breadth reading. The call drops to neutral if breadth falls to 60% or below (now 61.3%). This is the input closest to its line.
- The next VIX close. It shows whether volatility stays in the calm band, far from the 28 trigger.
- The next weekly jobless claims release. It tests whether claims hold near the 189K level for the week ending 31 October 2026. This is context for the read and does not change the call.
Status
Risk-on as of 11 November 2026; flip from the neutral read published 10 November 2026.