HD · The Home Depot, Inc.

The thesis

Home Depot's business is steadier than its share price, but rising borrowing costs still set the direction of the shares. The third-quarter report, expected on 17 November 2026, settles whether the fiscal 2026 guidance reaffirmed on 18 August 2026 holds. Until then, mortgage rates and the 28 October 2026 Federal Reserve decision matter more than anything the company says.

The shares closed at $295.47 on 8 October 2026, 22.8% below the 52-week high of $382.74 on adjusted daily closes and down 11.7% over three months. The 8 October 2026 session alone added 3.3%, per 24/7 Wall St. The pressure on the shares is outside the company: Yahoo Finance reported on 8 October 2026 that the 30-year mortgage rate had reached 7.28%, the highest since November 2023. On that evidence the shares are more likely to track the index or lag it than to lead it before the report.

The narrative is maturing: the housing-recovery case is widely covered, and the newest attention came from Melius Research's Buy initiation on 6 October 2026, not from any change in the business.

Bullish and bearish views on The Home Depot, Inc.

The bull case on The Home Depot, Inc. (HD), in brief: Full-year outlook unchanged. The bear case: Mortgage rates are moving the wrong way.

Bull case

• Full-year outlook unchanged. On 18 August 2026 the company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 comparable sales of flat to 2.0%, total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4.0% from $14.69.
• Margins are intact. Second-quarter operating income was $6.839 billion, a 14.3% margin, or 14.7% adjusted, per the 18 August 2026 release.
• Valuation has compressed. The shares traded at about 19 times next-twelve-months earnings on 8 October 2026, down from about 25 times in February, per a Yahoo Finance analysis using TIKR data.
• New coverage is positive. Melius Research started coverage with a Buy rating and a $397 target on 6 October 2026, arguing that rising existing-home supply will bring a turn in remodeling demand over two to three years. MarketBeat put the consensus target at $375.18 from 32 analysts on 1 October 2026.

Bear case

• Mortgage rates are moving the wrong way. The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.28%, the highest since November 2023, per Yahoo Finance on 8 October 2026. CME FedWatch odds of an October rate hike stood at 21.6% on 6 October 2026, per Benzinga.
• Management sees no turn yet. Management has said "We don't see anything that tells us there's an inflection," as quoted by Yahoo Finance on 8 October 2026. Melius's recovery case depends on a turn the company itself has not seen.
• Customer traffic is shrinking. Comparable customer transactions fell 1.0% in the second quarter, and comparable growth came from a 2.8% rise in average ticket, per the 18 August 2026 release.
• Earnings growth guidance is thin. The reaffirmed range of flat to 4.0% adjusted EPS growth leaves little room if housing stays weak through the holiday quarter.
• Not every analyst is positive. MarketBeat's 1 October 2026 tally counted 13 Hold ratings and one Sell among 32 analysts, and the lowest published target on StockAnalysis is $310.

Price setup

The shares closed at $295.47 on 8 October 2026. That is 22.8% below the $382.74 52-week high and 11.7% lower over three months on adjusted daily closes. The 14-day relative strength index, a momentum gauge where readings under 30 usually mean heavy recent selling, was 45.8. Benzinga listed Home Depot among consumer stocks with readings below 30 on 30 September 2026, so the selling pressure has eased since then.

Benzinga's 7 October 2026 chart commentary named $288 as former support that had turned into resistance. The 8 October 2026 close sits above that level, after a session that opened at $284.61 and rose 3.3%, per 24/7 Wall St. 24/7 Wall St. gave no company-specific reason for the move.

Crowding is low. Retail attention is modest, and the shares trade well below their high instead of stretched above a rising average. Benzinga flagged large options trades in Home Depot on 30 September 2026, 6 October 2026 and 8 October 2026. The next earnings report is about six weeks away.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~22 October 2026, est.: September existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors. Housing turnover drives large renovation projects, the weakest part of demand in 2026.
• 28 October 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. With hike odds at 21.6% on 6 October 2026 per CME FedWatch, the decision and its effect on mortgage rates bear directly on housing-linked shares.
• ~17 November 2026, est.: third-quarter fiscal 2026 report. This falls outside the 30-day window, but the case turns on it. Yahoo Finance cited consensus of $42.7 billion in sales and $3.84 adjusted EPS; the company has not yet confirmed the date.

What would change the view

A cut to the fiscal 2026 comparable-sales range of flat to 2.0%, or to adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4.0%, at the third-quarter report would break the case that the business is steadier than the shares. So would comparable transactions falling by more than the second quarter's 1.0%. On price, a weekly close below $270 would take the shares under their late-September and early-October trading range and end the thesis.

The read would turn more favourable if the 30-year mortgage rate fell back from 7.28% after the 28 October 2026 Fed decision and existing-home sales stabilised. A third-quarter report with comparable sales in the upper half of the range would also support a higher rating.

What it trades with

Home Depot trades with housing-linked shares, including Lowe's and the homebuilders, and against mortgage rates and long-term Treasury yields. Its moves since the 18 August 2026 report have followed rate expectations more than company news; the 3.3% gain on 8 October 2026 came without a company-specific headline, per 24/7 Wall St. Its earnings are steadier than most consumer discretionary names, so on days when defensive sectors lead, as Benzinga reported on 6 October 2026, it can diverge from the rest of the sector.