PLMR · Palomar Holdings, Inc.

The thesis

Palomar Holdings' earnings case strengthened on 4 November 2026: the third quarter beat estimates and the company raised FY2026 adjusted net income guidance to $280–285 million. The next test is whether premium growth outside crop insurance recovers by the fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027.

The shares closed at $155.67 on 5 November 2026, a 52-week high, up from $136.44 on 28 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That move has closed most of the gap to analyst targets, so further gains now lean on estimates rising.

The narrative is maturing: the 4 November 2026 report was Palomar's 16th straight earnings beat and its fourth guidance raise of 2026, so the pattern is well known, and it still moved the shares to a new high. This view is wrong if the $280–285 million range is cut or if the adjusted combined ratio, a measure of losses and costs per dollar of premium, rises above 85%.

Bullish and bearish views on Palomar Holdings, Inc.

The bull case on Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), in brief: Guidance rose for the fourth time. The bear case: Growth is concentrated in crop.

Bull case

• Guidance rose for the fourth time. On 4 November 2026 Palomar raised FY2026 adjusted net income guidance to $280–285 million from the $270–280 million set on 4 August 2026. Nine-month adjusted net income reached $208.2 million, up 34.3% (Q3 results release).
• Adjusted net income rose 47.4% to $81.3 million, per the company.
• Premium growth picked up. Gross written premium rose 28.4% to $767.0 million in Q3, against 27.0% growth in Q2. Palomar described the premium total as a record (Q3 results release, 4 November 2026).
• Lower costs lifted returns. The expense ratio fell to 39.3% from 45.8% a year earlier, and annualized adjusted return on equity rose to 33.1% from 25.6%. Net investment income rose 53.8% to $22.4 million (Q3 results release).

• Analysts raised estimates after the report. On 5 November 2026 Truist lifted its target to $175 from $168 and its 2027 EPS estimate to $12.00 from $11.65, per Investing.com. Evercore ISI raised its target to $155 the same day, per Benzinga.

Bear case

• Growth is concentrated in crop. Crop premium rose 89.3% to $226.7 million in Q3 and surety and credit rose 228.4% to $48.4 million. Earthquake grew 3.0% to $154.5 million, and inland marine and property grew 13.4% to $160.7 million (Q3 results release).
• Casualty growth slowed sharply. Casualty premium rose 3.4% to $176.8 million in Q3, against 29.5% for the nine months (Q3 results release, 4 November 2026). Palomar reclassified its products in 2026, and prior-year figures were restated to match.
• The loss ratio keeps rising. It reached 41.5% in Q3 against 32.3% a year earlier. The nine-month adjusted combined ratio was 76.3% against 72.5% (Q3 results release).
• GAAP earnings still lag adjusted earnings. Q3 net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) grew 27.0%, against 47.4% for adjusted net income. For the nine months the gap was 14.2% against 34.3%. Guidance is stated only on the adjusted line.
• The price has reached several targets. The $155.67 close on 5 November 2026 sits above Evercore ISI's new $155 target and just under JP Morgan's $156 target of 9 October 2026. The average target was $160.00 on 4 November 2026, before the post-report changes, per The Stock Observer.

• Catastrophe exposure has not ended. The Atlantic season runs to 30 November 2026, and an earthquake has no season. Guidance includes only $8–12 million of catastrophe losses for the year.

Price setup

The shares closed at $155.67 on 5 November 2026, which is also the 52-week high in adjusted daily closes. They have gained 18.8% over three months. The recent low closes are $126.49 on 2 October 2026 and $128.21 on 14 August 2026.

The gap above the moving averages is wide: The Stock Observer listed a 50-day average of $133.99 and a 200-day average of $126.62 on 4 November 2026. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge, was 66.4 on 5 November 2026, up from 57.1 on 28 October 2026.

Insider selling is small. The Q3 release shows no equity issuance. With the report now past, no earnings date sits close at hand.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 17 November 2026: Holders of record on this date receive the $0.45 quarterly dividend declared on 29 October 2026, payable on 2 December 2026. Adjusted closes shift slightly once the shares go ex-dividend.
• 30 November 2026: The Atlantic hurricane season ends. A landfall that pushes full-year catastrophe losses above $8–12 million would break an assumption inside guidance.
• ~15 February 2027, est.: Fourth-quarter results; Palomar has not announced a date. The report settles FY2026 against the $280–285 million range. The Q3 release gives no 2027 range.

What would change the view

A cut to the $280–285 million FY2026 adjusted net income guidance would end the case. So would an adjusted combined ratio above 85% in the fourth quarter, against 76.3% in Q3. Fourth-quarter gross written premium growth below 20% would also weaken it, because the shares now rest on growth continuing as crop's seasonal peak passes; Palomar's 2026 filings place that peak in the third quarter.

Catastrophe losses above the $8–12 million full-year assumption would break the low-loss part of guidance. A quarter in which GAAP net income falls while adjusted net income grows would undercut guidance stated only on the adjusted line.

On price, a daily close below $133 would end the thesis. That level sits under the 28 October 2026 close of $136.44, a week before the report, and under the 50-day average of $133.99 listed on 4 November 2026. It replaces the $120 invalidation level in the previous note because a fall that deep would now give back the entire market response to the report and more.

What it trades with

Truist compares the shares with the specialty property and casualty insurance group and says a valuation premium to that group's average is appropriate, citing growth, returns and earnings outperformance (Investing.com, 5 November 2026). A major California earthquake or a Gulf Coast landfall before 30 November 2026 would be expected to hit Palomar alongside other catastrophe-exposed insurers.

Crop adds a separate exposure. It made up $226.7 million of the $767.0 million written in Q3, and it contributed to a loss ratio that rose to 41.5%. Crop results therefore bear on Palomar's third quarter in a way unrelated to broad equity moves.