CRMD · CorMedix
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.60
Updated ·
Price against the kill line
38.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.60, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are down 39.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.60, just over the 200-day moving average of $7.58 as of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares regaining their longer trend and leading the index; or a signed separate Medicare Advantage payment agreement for DefenCath with a top plan.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 54.5
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −47.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 55.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −12.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 308
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 148
- Price to earnings (×)
- 5.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What CorMedix reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 54.5 | −47.7 | 55.0 | −12.1 |
| filed | 102 | +156.5 | 75.7 | 42.1 |
| filed | 127 | +226.1 | 82.5 | 50.0 |
| filed | 129 | +312.1 | 83.4 | 46.0 |
| filed | 104 | +810.2 | 89.3 | 49.2 |
| filed | 39.7 | +4829.4 | 95.3 | 49.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −16.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 63.9 | −14.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −9.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 313 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 4.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 308 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 355 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 5 March 2026; convertible debt plus notes | 0.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 12 November 2026 | 148 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 76.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | 43.1 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 462 |
| Market value ($M) | 371 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 222 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 1.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 5.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 83.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 18.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 12.7 days of average trading to cover, −4.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.3M |
The thesis
CorMedix's main drug, the dialysis catheter-lock solution DefenCath, has lost most of its Medicare premium, and the company will not give a 2027 DefenCath revenue figure until early 2027. The rating is Low: the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A separate Medicare Advantage payment for DefenCath, which management hopes to report before the end of 2026, is the next event that could prove that view wrong.
The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 showed the size of the reset. Total revenue was $54.5 million against $104.3 million a year earlier, and DefenCath net revenue was $17.2 million, including a one-time $5.0 million favourable change in sales allowances (company 8-K). On the earnings call the chief executive said "tentatively, yes" when asked whether about $12 million a quarter is the right DefenCath level for the fourth quarter, with "a little bit of a notch up."
The company held full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $325–345 million and suspended its earlier 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance, citing the new quarterly method the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) uses to set the drug's add-on payment. Updated guidance is due in early 2027.
The market's reading of the report was negative. The shares closed at $4.84 on 12 November 2026, the results day, down from $5.30 the session before, a new 52-week closing low and 62.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $13.02 set on 30 December 2025. With $355.2 million of cash and short-term investments on 30 September 2026, the price treats DefenCath as a business near its reduced post-premium run rate and gives little credit to the pending Heron Therapeutics purchase.
Bullish and bearish views on CorMedix Inc.
The bull case on CorMedix Inc. (CRMD), in brief: third-quarter revenue beat the estimate. The bear case: DefenCath revenue has collapsed.
Bull case
- Third-quarter revenue beat the estimate. Revenue of $54.5 million topped the $53.2 million analyst estimate reported in company news on 12 November 2026, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $325–345 million was reaffirmed on 2 November 2026 and again on 12 November 2026.
- First-quarter 2027 Medicare add-on rises. The CMS final 2027 end-stage renal disease payment rule set the post-premium DefenCath add-on at $8.32 per dialysis session for the first quarter of 2027, against $2.37 per session in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 (company release, 2 November 2026).
- Cash cushion and lower costs. Cash and short-term investments stood at $355.2 million on 30 September 2026. Guidance for 2026 cash operating expenses was cut to $140–145 million from $145–155 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $130–140 million (8-K, 12 November 2026).
- Heron deal broadens the hospital portfolio. The Heron Therapeutics asset purchase signed on 9 November 2026 brings four hospital products, including ZYNRELEF and APONVIE, which CorMedix expects to add $125–150 million of 2027 revenue (8-K, 12 November 2026).
- REZZAYO filing under priority review. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted the supplemental application for REZZAYO in antifungal prophylaxis on 19 October 2026 with priority review and a target action date in the first quarter of 2027 (8-K, 12 November 2026).
Bear case
- DefenCath revenue has collapsed. DefenCath net revenue fell to $17.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, from $66.1 million in the second quarter, after its temporary Medicare add-on (Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment, TDAPA) ended on 1 July 2026 (company 8-Ks).
- Largest customer flagged lower 2027 payments. DaVita's chief financial officer said on its third-quarter call that the DefenCath add-on would fall sharply from the first to the second quarter of 2027, and CorMedix shares fell nearly 26% in the 30 October 2026 session (Stocktwits). CMS now resets the add-on every quarter, so revenue visibility runs one quarter at a time.
- Profit has largely disappeared. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $3.1 million against $71.9 million a year earlier, and the net loss of $(0.19) per share missed the $(0.10) estimate (company news, 12 November 2026).
- Deal adds shares and debt. The Heron purchase pays $145 million in cash plus 14,583,333 new CorMedix shares, with up to $55 million more tied to 2028 ZYNRELEF sales (8-K, 9 November 2026), and CorMedix expects to draw $75 million of a term loan of up to $150 million at closing (8-K, 12 November 2026).
- DefenCath expansion trial is behind. Management said on 12 November 2026 that enrollment in the Phase 3 study in patients on total parenteral nutrition (TPN) "continues to track meaningfully behind" plan, with a decision on alternatives expected before the next quarterly call.
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.84 on 12 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, after trading between $5.23 and $5.47 from 5 November to 11 November 2026. The results day broke the shares below that range. The 3-month change is −35.8%, measured from the $7.54 close on 14 August 2026.
The last close sits far under both the 50-day moving average of $7.25 and the 200-day moving average of $7.58, as of 12 November 2026, and the 50-day average is below the 200-day. A return to the 200-day average would take a rise of more than half from the 12 November 2026 close.
SEC Form 4 filings from August and September 2026 show tax withholding on vested shares at $8.30 on 29 August 2026 by the chief financial officer, chief operating officer and chief legal officer, and a 48,909-share option exercise by director Janet Dillione on 18 September 2026. They show no open-market buying.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Update on separate Medicare Advantage payment for DefenCath, which management hopes to give before the end of 2026. A signed agreement with a top plan would add DefenCath revenue outside the shrinking fee-for-service add-on and would count against the lag call.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Heron Therapeutics stockholder vote and closing of the asset purchase, expected in the first quarter of 2027. Closing brings $125–150 million of expected 2027 revenue; a failed vote or delay leaves CorMedix more dependent on DefenCath.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): FDA action on the REZZAYO prophylaxis supplemental application under priority review, target date in the first quarter of 2027. Approval would open a new indication for promotion from the second half of 2027 and add a second growth product beyond DefenCath.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report with new 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance, expected in early 2027. Sets the first fixed revenue level for DefenCath under quarterly add-on resets and shows whether the roughly $12 million quarterly run rate holds.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.60, just over the 200-day moving average of $7.58 as of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares regaining their longer trend and leading the index; or a signed separate Medicare Advantage payment agreement for DefenCath with a top plan.
What it trades with
CorMedix trades on dialysis reimbursement news more than on biotech sector moves. The largest single-day move of the past three months, the 30 October 2026 session, came from a customer's earnings call, so DaVita, Fresenius and CMS publication of each quarter's add-on rate are the main outside drivers. The pending Heron Therapeutics purchase ties the shares to Heron's stockholder vote and to the sales trend of Heron's hospital products until the deal closes, expected in the first quarter of 2027.
Notes
- CMS now recalculates the DefenCath Medicare add-on every quarter from utilization and pricing data, so DefenCath revenue can shift from one quarter to the next.
- The pending Heron Therapeutics asset purchase issues 14,583,333 new CorMedix shares at closing and needs Heron stockholder approval and regulatory clearance.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $54.5 million, down from $104.3 million a year earlier; net loss was $14.7 million, or $(0.19) per share. CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 DefenCath net revenue was $17.2 million, including a $5.0 million favourable change in estimate for sales allowances. CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $3.1 million versus $71.9 million a year earlier; cash and short-term investments were $355.2 million at 30 September 2026. CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance held at $325–345 million, adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $130–140 million, and earlier 2027 DefenCath revenue guidance suspended until early 2027. CorMedix third-quarter 2026 results 8-K · as of
- The CMS final 2027 end-stage renal disease rule set the DefenCath post-TDAPA add-on at $8.32 per session for the first quarter of 2027, against $2.37 per session in the second half of 2026. CorMedix press release, 2 November 2026 · as of
- Heron asset purchase: $145 million cash plus 14,583,333 CorMedix shares and up to $55 million tied to 2028 ZYNRELEF sales; closing expected in the first quarter of 2027. CorMedix 8-K and Heron Therapeutics 8-K · as of
- CorMedix shares fell nearly 26% after DaVita's chief financial officer said the DefenCath add-on would fall sharply from the first to the second quarter of 2027. Stocktwits, 30 October 2026 · as of
- Management said enrollment in the DefenCath Phase 3 study in total parenteral nutrition patients continues to track meaningfully behind plan. CorMedix third-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
Sources