Journal ·
Stock market on Monday, 9 November 2026
The read of the US stock market after the close: the market regime, what drove it and what to watch next.
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Market breadth crossed the 60% line the model requires for a risk-on call, with 590 of 978 names above their own 50-day EMA (exponential moving average), and that line is now the call's weakest support. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gives the call more room: its close sits 2.4% above its 200-day EMA, well past the 0.5% bar. Volatility is the other input with a trigger in sight. The VIX volatility index stood at 25.64 at the 6 November 2026 close, below the 28 threshold but still rated elevated. The session's own VIX close is not yet published. Price trend and participation both meet the rules, but breadth meets its threshold only narrowly.
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 25.64 (6 November 2026 close) | Elevated |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 60.3% (590/978) | Healthy |
| SPY close | 752.72 | +2.4% vs 200-EMA (735.21) |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.86% (6 November 2026) | -8bps week over week |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.51% (6 November 2026) | -5bps week over week |
| 10Y-2Y spread | 0.35% (6 November 2026) | -3bps week over week |
| 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.23% (6 November 2026) | -11bps week over week |
| Real 10Y rate | 2.63% (6 November 2026) | +3bps week over week |
| High-yield credit spread | 3.42% (6 November 2026) | -2bps week over week |
| Fed Funds | 3.88% (1 October 2026) | — |
| Initial jobless claims | 189K (31 October 2026) | -6K week over week |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% (1 October 2026) | — |
| Nonfarm payrolls | 159.3M (1 October 2026) | — |
| Housing starts | 1,221K (1 September 2026) | — |
Regime assessment
The read suggests the advance has widened beyond a handful of large names, though with little cushion. A market where most stocks trade above their medium-term trend is broadly participating rather than being carried. The volatility reading pulls the other way. Option markets were still pricing sizable swings at the last published close, so the risk-on call sits alongside visible caution.
Rates and credit are context, not inputs to the call. In Federal Reserve data for the week to 6 November 2026, the 10-year yield fell 8bps while the breakeven inflation rate fell 11bps and the real yield rose 3bps. This suggests the drop in yields came from lower inflation expectations, not cheaper real borrowing costs. High-yield spreads edged 2bps tighter, and weekly jobless claims fell to 189K in the 31 October 2026 week. Neither shows stress in credit or labor.
The forward view is that breadth is the input most likely to decide the call's next change, because it clears its threshold by the smallest margin. That view is wrong if SPY or the VIX reaches its trigger first.
What would change the call
Risk-on is held by SPY more than 0.5% above its 200-day EMA (now +2.4%), breadth above 60% (now 60.3%) and VIX below 28 (now 25.64). It drops to neutral if any one of these happens:
- SPY falls to within 0.5% of its 200-day EMA.
- Breadth falls to 60% or below.
- VIX reaches 28.
It turns risk-off if any one of these happens:
- SPY closes more than 2% below its 200-day EMA (now +2.4%).
- Breadth falls under 40% (now 60.3%).
- VIX rises above 28 (now 25.64).
What to watch
- The 9 November 2026 VIX close, once published. It shows whether volatility kept falling with the breadth gain or stayed elevated.
- The next breadth reading. Any slip to 60% or below moves the call to neutral.
- The next weekly jobless claims release. It tests whether the 189K level holds. It is context for the read, not an input to the call.
Status
Risk-on as of 9 November 2026; flip from the neutral read published 6 November 2026.