ADMA · ADMA Biologics
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $11.23
Published ·
Price against the kill line
21.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $11.23, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 46.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $11.23, the 20 October 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or a later cut to the "at least $530 million" revenue or "at least $180 million" adjusted net income guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 141
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +5.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 70.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 48.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 133
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −71.3
- Price to earnings (×)
- 16.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.0
All filed numbers
What ADMA Biologics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 141 | +5.1 | 70.8 | 48.0 |
| filed | 124 | +2.0 | 69.4 | 42.2 |
| filed | 115 | −0.3 | 70.5 | 50.9 |
| filed | 139 | +18.4 | 63.8 | 45.1 |
| filed | 134 | +12.0 | 56.3 | 38.0 |
| filed | 122 | +13.8 | 55.1 | 35.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 65.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 182 | 49.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −7.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 141 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 7.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 133 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 125 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 196 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −71.3 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 169 |
| Inventory ($M) | 266 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 439 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,035 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,106 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 12.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 16.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 8.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.5 days of average trading to cover, −5.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $468K | $3.3M |
The thesis
ADMA Biologics' third-quarter 2026 report improved the case: ASCENIV, its premium immune globulin, grew 31% and the company raised its 2026 profit guidance while holding revenue at "at least $530 million". The shares closed at $13.21 on 5 November 2026, so the next test is whether fourth-quarter ASCENIV demand and pricing hold, since BIVIGAM, the older product, is still shrinking.
That report has now arrived. Revenue of $141.1 million beat the $138.19 million analyst estimate cited by Benzinga, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.23 beat $0.20. The narrative is accelerating: the shares jumped 28% in after-hours trading on 4 November 2026 (Benzinga), and coverage multiplied on 5 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on ADMA Biologics Inc
The bull case on ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA), in brief: ASCENIV growth accelerated. The bear case: total revenue growth is still modest.
Bull case
- ASCENIV growth accelerated. ASCENIV revenue was $124.7 million in the third quarter, up 31% year on year, against 24% growth in the second quarter, according to the company's 4 November 2026 Form 8-K. Management said favorable demand trends continue into the fourth quarter.
- Profit guidance was raised. The company lifted 2026 adjusted net income guidance to at least $180 million, from $170–$200 million, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to at least $275 million, from $265–$300 million. Revenue guidance of at least $530 million was reiterated.
- Margins widened further. Gross margin was 71% in the third quarter, against 56% a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $77.3 million, up 32%, and GAAP net income was $49.9 million, up 37%.
- The buyback is shrinking the share count. ADMA repurchased 2.7 million shares in the third quarter and 16.5 million year to date, 6.3% of shares outstanding at 2025 year-end. It remains on track for its $200 million-or-more 2026 target.
- A pipeline step cleared. The company said the FDA gave constructive feedback on the SG-001 pre-IND package, covering the clinical strategy and assay. ADMA plans an IND submission and estimates a $300–$500 million annual revenue opportunity if approved (company estimate, 4 November 2026).
Bear case
- Total revenue growth is still modest. Third-quarter revenue of $141.1 million rose 5% year on year, per the 8-K. ASCENIV strength is offsetting BIVIGAM, which fell 35% to $15.4 million from $23.8 million.
- The revenue guide is a floor, not a raise. The 2026 outlook changed from a $530–$560 million range to "at least $530 million". Revenue guidance has not been increased since the first-quarter 2026 reset from more than $635 million.
- Pricing pressure persists. The company still describes pricing pressure in the standard U.S. immune globulin market, and said BIVIGAM utilization showed only "early signs" of stabilizing.
- Debt funds the buyback. Total debt was about $195.9 million on 30 September 2026, against about $72.1 million at 2025 year-end. Cash was $124.6 million, up from $87.6 million at year-end.
- Analysts remain cautious at this price. Cantor Fitzgerald kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $13 on 5 November 2026, below the $13.21 close that day. The 52-week high is $20.38, and the shares are still 35.2% below it.
Price setup
The shares closed at $13.21 on 5 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), 35.2% below the 52-week high of $20.38. They are up 35.5% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 70.2, at the edge of what traders call overbought. The close on 20 October 2026, before the report, was $11.23.
The earnings gap is the main feature. Price levels that matter are the $11.23 pre-report close below and the $20.38 high above. The stock sits at the Cantor target, so further gains would need other firms to lift targets above it.
Crowding evidence is moderate. Benzinga listed ADMA among the day's biggest health care movers on 5 November 2026, and the RSI is elevated. The earnings date has passed, and no SEC Form 4 insider sales or share issuance are reported in company news. Share count is falling through repurchases.
Catalysts ahead
- November 2026 (mid-month): ACAAI Annual Scientific Meeting presentation of a real-world study of 127 medically complex primary immunodeficiency patients on ASCENIV. Clinical outcome data support ASCENIV's premium positioning as U.S. immune globulin pricing stays under pressure.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Preparation of the SG-001 IND submission after FDA pre-IND feedback. It is the first step for a product beyond the immune globulin franchise and does not affect near-term revenue.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~9 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. The filing gives fuller detail on pricing, customer concentration and the revolving credit facility behind the buyback. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close below $11.23, the 20 October 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or a later cut to the "at least $530 million" revenue or "at least $180 million" adjusted net income guidance.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Immune globulin pricing pressure spreads from BIVIGAM to ASCENIV and slows its growth. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter ASCENIV growth falling well below the 31% reported for the third quarter of 2026, or management describing price concessions on ASCENIV.
- The revenue floor of at least $530 million leaves little evidence of top-line upside, and the shares have already moved. Confirmed by: full-year revenue guidance staying at the floor in the next report while the share price holds near the Cantor Fitzgerald target of $13.
- A debt-funded buyback reduces flexibility if revenue stalls. Confirmed by: total debt rising above the roughly $195.9M reported on 30 September 2026, or cash falling well below the $124.6M reported that day.
- A safety signal undermines the optimized manufacturing process. Confirmed by: reports of thromboembolic events in product made with the optimized process, or FDA labeling action on ADMA's immune globulins.
What it trades with
ADMA trades on its own product cycle rather than on a sector theme. Plasma-derived immune globulin peers face the same pricing pressure and plasma supply costs, so competitor pricing commentary can move the shares. Small-cap biotech sentiment and rate moves affect the shares through valuation, but the company is profitable and buying back stock, which makes it less dependent on financing conditions than most biotechs.
Notes
- ADMA withdrew its long-term financial guidance at its first-quarter 2026 report; only 2026 full-year guidance is outstanding.
- Thrombosis is a labeled risk for immune globulin products, including ADMA's ASCENIV and BIVIGAM.
- ASCENIV made up roughly 88% of third-quarter 2026 revenue, so the company depends heavily on one product.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 total revenue was $141.1M, up 5% year on year; ASCENIV was $124.7M, up 31%; BIVIGAM was $15.4M, down 35%. ADMA Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 gross margin was 71% versus 56% a year earlier; GAAP net income $49.9M; adjusted EBITDA $77.3M, up 32%. ADMA Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- 2026 guidance: revenue of at least $530M (reiterated), adjusted net income of at least $180M and adjusted EBITDA of at least $275M (both raised). ADMA Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash was $124.6M and total debt about $195.9M on 30 September 2026; 16.5M shares repurchased year to date, 6.3% of shares outstanding at 2025 year-end. ADMA Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The FDA gave constructive feedback on the SG-001 pre-IND package; ADMA plans an IND submission. ADMA Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.23 beat the $0.20 estimate and sales of $141.102M beat the $138.190M estimate. Benzinga earnings summary · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating and raised its ADMA price target to $13. Benzinga analyst ratings headline · as of
Sources
- ADMA BIOLOGICS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·