BSP · Bending Spoons S.p.A.

The thesis

Bending Spoons' model of buying software companies and running them for profit is working, but the shares already price it in. The stock closed at $47.07 on 16 October 2026, above most published analyst targets, after Berkshire Hathaway's 14 October 2026 investment. The third-quarter report (~12 November 2026, est.) and the IPO lock-up expiry tied to it decide whether the gain holds. The odds of beating the S&P 500 over the next three months look slightly worse than even.

The business case is real. Second-quarter revenue was $704 million, up 126% from a year earlier, and net income was $177 million, according to the company's 13 August 2026 results on Form 6-K. Almost all of that growth came from acquisitions: organic revenue growth was 3%. Berkshire is buying 10 million new shares at $33 each, about $330 million, which takes its stake to 4% (CNBC and Reuters, 14 October 2026). Berkshire had already put $600 million into the July IPO.

The narrative is accelerating: the 14 October 2026 Berkshire news drew coverage from CNBC, Forbes and Motley Fool, and the shares rose as much as 47.3% to $55.76 during that session (Benzinga). That same attention is the main crowding risk.

Bullish and bearish views on Bending Spoons S.p.A.

The bull case on Bending Spoons S.p.A. (BSP), in brief: Profitable growth from acquired software. The bear case: Organic growth is only 3%.

Bull case

• Profitable growth from acquired software. The company guides 2026 revenue of $2.78–2.82 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.46–1.51 billion (13 August 2026 Form 6-K). Third-quarter guidance is $733–745 million of revenue and $380–400 million of adjusted operating income.
• Berkshire money funds more deals. The $330 million placement announced 14 October 2026 adds acquisition capacity. Co-founder Francesco Patarnello said the M&A pipeline "remains strong" (CNBC, 14 October 2026).
• Distressed software sold at deep discounts. Bending Spoons agreed on 10 September 2026 to buy Miro for a $1.355 billion enterprise value, about 90% below Miro's 2022 private valuation, for roughly $600 million of annual recurring revenue (company release; Bloomberg). Airtable was agreed in August at a $1.29 billion enterprise value.
• Cash generation supports the debt. Operating cash flow was $254 million in the first half of 2026 against $4 million of capital spending (13 August 2026 Form 6-K).

Bear case

• Organic growth is only 3%. Reported growth of 126% in the second quarter came almost entirely from acquisitions (13 August 2026 Form 6-K). Growth slows sharply in any quarter without a new deal.
• Leverage rises with each purchase. Net debt was $4.09 billion at a 2.4x leverage ratio, with $793 million of cash and $1.28 billion of undrawn revolver (13 August 2026 Form 6-K). The all-cash Miro and Airtable deals were not yet in those figures.
• Price sits above analyst targets. Benzinga's 25 September 2026 consensus of eight analysts averaged $43. Bank of America kept Underperform and cut its target to $36 on 29 September 2026. Wells Fargo's $48 target (1 September 2026) is the highest found.
• New share supply is building. Berkshire's 10 million shares are priced at $33, about 13% below the 13 October 2026 close of $37.86. Some Miro holders agreed to reinvest $295 million in newly issued shares (10 September 2026 release).

Price setup

The shares closed at $47.07 on 16 October 2026, up 38.9% over three months on adjusted daily closes, with a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 65.7. The IPO priced at $29 in July 2026 (Renaissance Capital). The stock closed at $37.86 on 13 October 2026, the session before the Berkshire news, and reached $55.76 intraday on 14 October 2026 (Benzinga).

The 16 October 2026 close is about 16% below that intraday peak, so part of the spike has already faded. The $37.86 pre-announcement close is the key lower reference. Below it sits $33, Berkshire's placement price.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026 (est.): third-quarter 2026 results. Data providers list dates from 6 November to 13 November 2026. The report tests the $733–745 million revenue guide, the organic growth rate and leverage before the Miro debt arrives.
• ~14 November 2026 (est.): IPO lock-up expiry. The prospectus ends the lock-up 48 hours after the second quarterly earnings release after the IPO, provided at least 125 days have passed. The underwriters, Goldman Sachs International, J.P. Morgan and Allen & Company, can release shares earlier.
• Q4 2026 (date not set): Miro closing. The deal needs regulatory approval. The closing adds an all-cash purchase to net debt.

What would change the view

The case breaks if third-quarter revenue falls below the $733 million low end of guidance, if organic growth turns negative, or if full-year adjusted operating income guidance is cut from $1.46–1.51 billion. A rise in the leverage ratio well above 2.4x without a matching rise in earnings would also weaken it.

The read would improve if the third-quarter report beats guidance and the shares hold above $47.07 through the lock-up expiry. That would show insider selling being absorbed. A further rise in analyst targets toward the current price would point the same way.

What it trades with

On 14 October 2026 the Nasdaq fell 1.54% while Bending Spoons rose more than 40%, so the latest move was company-specific (Benzinga). The listed theme peers, XPOF and SYNA, have unrelated businesses, and their prices do not drive this stock. The shares are more exposed to software-sector sentiment, since that sets the prices of companies Bending Spoons can buy. They are also exposed to credit conditions, because the deals are debt-funded. The M&A and special-situations group is warming as of 16 October 2026. A sharp move in the stock still depends on Berkshire-driven flows and the lock-up date more than on the group.