MBGL · Mobility Global

The thesis

Mobility Global is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Two things support the call. Growth at CARFAX sped up in the third quarter of 2026, and a buyback of $350–450 million is due to start before the end of 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, settles it. That report shows whether margins hold up once the full cost of running as a standalone company arrives.

The company reported on 12 November 2026. Third-quarter revenue was $478 million, up 7.4% from a year earlier and 7.6% on an organic constant-currency basis, against 6.4% organic growth in the second quarter (company results, Investing.com slide summary). Management kept 2026 revenue guidance at $1,870–1,885 million. It raised adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance to $750–760 million, from $745–760 million. The board had approved an $800 million repurchase authorization in October 2026. The company plans to buy back $350–450 million of stock through the end of 2027, starting before the end of 2026.

The shares rose sharply in the 12 November 2026 session to an adjusted close of $23.13, well above the 50-day average of $19.01. The rating is Medium because the business results and the buyback point the same way. A one-day jump of this size, however, already prices in part of the good news.

What the price already reflects: Investing.com put the company's market value at about $5.87 billion on the morning of 12 November 2026, before the session's rise. That compares with raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $750–760 million.

Bullish and bearish views on Mobility Global Inc.

The bull case on Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL), in brief: CARFAX growth is speeding up. The bear case: standalone costs are compressing margins.

Bull case

• CARFAX growth is speeding up. CARFAX revenue was $313 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 8%. United States CARFAX revenue was $267 million, up 8%, the third straight quarter of faster growth (12 November 2026 results slides).
• Cash generation funds the buyback. Free cash flow was $186 million in the quarter, up 37%. Net leverage fell to 2.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA from 2.4 times at the end of the second quarter. Quarter-end cash was $351 million (12 November 2026 results slides).
• The buyback starts earlier than signalled. On the second-quarter call in August 2026, management said buybacks would not begin until early 2027. The 12 November 2026 plan brings the start forward to before the end of 2026, with $350–450 million targeted through 2027 (company results; second-quarter call coverage).
• Profit guidance was raised. The 2026 adjusted EBITDA range moved to $750–760 million from $745–760 million on 12 November 2026. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.40 beat the $0.38 estimate (company results; earnings headlines).
• B2B transactional revenue has stabilised. B2B transactional revenue was flat at $27 million in the third quarter, after a 4% decline in the second quarter (12 November 2026 results slides).

Bear case

• Standalone costs are compressing margins. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 41%, against 43% a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA rose only 2%. Management puts standalone public-company costs at about 150 basis points of margin: roughly half lands in 2026 and the full amount in 2027 (12 November 2026 results slides).
• GAAP profit fell hard. Net income fell 41% to $42 million in the third quarter. GAAP earnings per share of $0.14 missed the $0.17 estimate. Higher interest expense and standalone costs drove the drop (12 November 2026 results and earnings headlines).
• Taxes and interest weigh on cash. The company raised its 2026 GAAP tax rate guide to about 32% from 28–31%. It expects cash taxes $80–90 million higher because of a separation-related deferred tax liability. The first cash interest payment, about $60 million, falls in the fourth quarter (12 November 2026 results slides).
• Part of the B2B growth will not recur. B2B subscription revenue rose about 8% to roughly $137 million. A prior-year true-up that will not repeat helped that growth (12 November 2026 results slides).
• The fourth quarter is the weakest for margins. Management expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to be the lowest-margin quarter of the year. It also expects about $50 million of one-time spin-related costs in the second half of 2026 (12 November 2026 results slides).

Price setup

• The adjusted close on 12 November 2026 was $23.13. The 50-day average of adjusted closes was $19.01 on the same date, so the shares sit about $4 above it after the results-day jump.
• The shares are up 14.1% over three months to 12 November 2026. Most of that gain came in the single 12 November 2026 session.
• Before the report, the market had already reacted to the results: Investing.com reported a premarket price of $20.51 on 12 November 2026, up 2.96%. The regular-session gain above that level reflects the buyback timing and the guidance raise.
• The test now is whether the shares hold the 12 November 2026 gain into the start of the buyback, which the company has scheduled for before the end of 2026.

Catalysts ahead

• ~31 December 2026 (est.): First repurchases under the $800 million authorization, which the company says will begin before the end of 2026. This shows whether the planned $350–450 million of buybacks through 2027 starts on the schedule management set on 12 November 2026.
• ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, with the first 2027 guidance. This shows whether 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands within the $750–760 million guide and how much the full 150 basis points of standalone costs weighs on 2027 margins.

What would change the view

A daily close below $20.51, the premarket price Investing.com reported on 12 November 2026, which would erase the regular-session gain after the third-quarter report; or 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the $750 million low end of guidance.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Full standalone public-company costs in 2027 push margins down more than revenue growth can offset. Confirmed by: 2027 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance below the about 40% margin implied for 2026, given with the fourth-quarter report.
• CARFAX growth slows as United States used-vehicle retail activity softens. Confirmed by: United States CARFAX revenue growth falling below the 8% reported for the third quarter of 2026 at the fourth-quarter report.
• B2B growth fades once the non-recurring prior-year true-up drops out. Confirmed by: B2B organic growth below the 5.8% year-to-date rate through the third quarter of 2026, or B2B transactional revenue declining again.
• Systems migration from S&P Global causes disruption or cost overruns before its mid-2027 target. Confirmed by: an increase in the roughly $100 million estimate of one-time spin-related costs through 2027, or a delay to the mid-2027 completion target.
• Higher cash taxes and interest leave less cash for repurchases than planned. Confirmed by: repurchases tracking below the pace needed for $350–450 million through 2027, as reported in quarterly filings.

What it trades with

• CARFAX made up $313 million of $478 million in third-quarter revenue, so the shares mainly follow United States used-vehicle retail activity and dealer subscription spending. CARFAX United States revenue grew 8% in the third quarter of 2026.
• The B2B segment ($164 million in the third quarter) sells data and marketing tools to carmakers and dealers. It is exposed to automaker marketing budgets. Canada was weak in the third quarter while Europe grew at double digits (12 November 2026 results slides).
• The company completed its separation from S&P Global in 2026, and the third quarter was its first full standalone quarter. Systems migration from S&P Global is expected to finish by mid-2027 (12 November 2026 results slides). Until then, separation costs and one-off charges make reported figures harder to compare with earlier periods.
• Net leverage of 2.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and a new interest bill make the shares more sensitive to interest rates than the former parent's reported segment was.