DASH · DoorDash
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $190
Updated ·
Price against the kill line
9.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $190.00, set on 13 November 2026. The shares are down 19.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $190, which would put the shares back over the 50-day moving average and the early-November trading range and show them leading again; or fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA above the $1.1 billion top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 4,616
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +34.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 53.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 2,691
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 3,254
- Price to earnings (×)
- 71.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.2
All filed numbers
What DoorDash reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 4,616 | +34.0 | 53.0 | 9.6 |
| filed | 4,454 | +35.6 | 52.7 | 3.5 |
| filed | 4,036 | +33.1 | 50.6 | 3.7 |
| filed | 3,955 | +37.7 | 51.1 | 3.7 |
| filed | 3,446 | +27.3 | 51.0 | 7.5 |
| filed | 3,284 | +24.9 | 50.8 | 5.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 484 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,063 | 466 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 2,953 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 262 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 2,691 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,982 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 2,728 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 3,254 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +31.8% on a year | 592 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,212 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 10,717 |
| Market value ($M) | 75,518 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 72,264 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 80.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 71.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 7.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 3.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.6 days of average trading to cover, +5.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $86.4M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $100.3M | $310.8M |
The thesis
DoorDash shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Record third-quarter results have not lifted the stock. The $17 billion Instacart deal adds a review that may not finish before late 2027, plus new debt and a plan to reinvest the deal's savings. The fourth-quarter report, expected in mid-February 2027, is the next result that could change that.
The business is growing fast. In its third-quarter report on 29 October 2026, DoorDash said total orders rose 28% from a year earlier to 993 million, and Marketplace gross order value (the value of orders placed on its marketplace) rose 36% to $33.9 billion. Revenue was $4.616 billion, up 34%, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 41% to $1.06 billion. The shares rose more than 6% in morning trading that day, according to CNBC. By the 12 November 2026 close of $172.58 they were back below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
The rating is Low because the drivers for the next three months point the wrong way. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance is $900 million to $1.1 billion. Even the top of that range is only slightly above the third quarter's $1.06 billion. Three brokers cut their price targets after the report. The Instacart deal now dominates how the shares trade, and that review lasts longer than this call.
Bullish and bearish views on DoorDash, Inc.
The bull case on DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), in brief: third-quarter results beat estimates. The bear case: profit guidance shows no growth in the fourth quarter.
Bull case
- Third-quarter results beat estimates. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.06 against an 84-cent consensus, and revenue was $4.62 billion against $4.56 billion expected, according to CNBC on 29 October 2026. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders rose 91% to $466 million.
- Strong cash generation pays for buybacks. Third-quarter free cash flow was $787 million, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $2.203 billion. Through 28 October 2026, DoorDash had repurchased 6.8 million Class A shares for $1.0 billion, leaving about $4.0 billion of authorization, according to the company's 8-K.
- Valuation near a five-year low. A Yahoo Finance/TIKR article on 3 November 2026 put the shares at about 26 times forward earnings. It called that near a five-year low and well below the roughly 39 times average of the past three years.
- Partners keep adding DoorDash to their offers. Lyft launched its "Lyft Go" membership on 5 November 2026 with credits usable on DoorDash orders. Urban Outfitters tied its holiday campaign to DoorDash delivery on 6 November 2026.
- Deliveroo is speeding up. The company said Deliveroo's third-quarter order growth was twice its rate of a year earlier.
Bear case
- Profit guidance shows no growth in the fourth quarter. DoorDash guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $900 million to $1.1 billion on 29 October 2026. The third quarter delivered $1.06 billion. Year-end payment timing will also cut 2026 free cash flow by $700–800 million.
- Instacart review could take until 2028. The $65-per-share deal, worth about $17 billion, needs US Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust clearance, approvals in Canada and Israel, and an Instacart shareholder vote. DoorDash expects it to close at the end of 2027 or in the first half of 2028. Wedbush told CNBC on 29 October 2026 that a narrow definition of the grocery market could make approval harder.
- Savings will be reinvested and the deal adds debt. At least 75% of the price is cash, funded by cash on hand and new debt backed by a JPMorgan bridge commitment. DoorDash targets $500 million or more in annual net savings over several years. It plans to reinvest more than 100% of them in the first year after closing.
- Brokers cut their targets after the report. Rosenblatt cut its target to $225 from $270 on 6 November 2026 and kept a Buy rating. MoffettNathanson cut its target to $239 from $277 on 11 November 2026.
- A Federal Trade Commission (FTC) study covers pricing and courier pay. Yahoo Finance reported on 3 November 2026 that the FTC had sent study orders to DoorDash, Instacart, Uber, Lyft and others. The orders ask whether they use personal data to set consumer prices and gig-worker pay. The FTC called it a study, with no enforcement action.
- Uber is gaining ground with a major restaurant chain. McDonald's and Uber announced a multi-year delivery and rewards expansion across 14 markets on 9 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $172.58 on 12 November 2026, down 20.5% over three months from $217.02 on 14 August 2026. That close is below the 50-day moving average of $189.17 and the 200-day moving average of $181.58, both as of 12 November 2026. The 50-day average sitting above the 200-day while price is under both means the decline is recent.
The post-earnings gain did not last. On 2 November 2026, director Stanley Tang sold 23,125 shares at $178.35–$190.81 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (a preset trading plan), according to his Form 4. The shares then closed between $178.25 and $180.96 from 5 November to 11 November 2026, and fell to $172.58 on 12 November 2026.
The 52-week intraday high is $239.00, set on 19 December 2025, and the last close is 27.8% below it. The 52-week closing low is $146.60, set on 27 March 2026. Reclaiming the 200-day average, and then the 50-day average, would be the first sign that the market is pricing past the Instacart review.
Catalysts ahead
- ~17 February 2027 (est.): DoorDash fourth-quarter 2026 report. Shows whether adjusted EBITDA beats the $900 million to $1.1 billion guide and how much 2027 spending the company plans before the Instacart deal closes.
What would change the view
A daily close above $190, which would put the shares back over the 50-day moving average and the early-November trading range and show them leading again; or fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA above the $1.1 billion top of guidance.
What it trades with
DoorDash's closest public comparison is Uber's delivery business. Uber's third-quarter report on 5 November 2026 showed strong delivery growth even as its ride-hailing segment missed, and its McDonald's expansion on 9 November 2026 is a direct competitive point. Instacart (Maplebear) now trades on the deal: its shares were near flat on 29 October 2026, according to CNBC, and the gap to the $65 offer shows how much antitrust risk the market sees. That gap and DoorDash's own price tend to react to the same regulatory news. Lyft is a partner, not a rival, after the 5 November 2026 Lyft Go launch. Broader consumer spending data matters through order volumes, but the Instacart review and margin guidance drive the shares more than the market cycle does.
Notes
- DoorDash has a multi-class share structure; the listed Class A shares carry fewer votes per share than the founders' Class B shares.
- Starting with the fourth quarter of 2026, DoorDash stops reporting results excluding Deliveroo, so reported growth rates include the acquisition.
- The Instacart deal includes a break fee of up to $1.25 billion payable by DoorDash in certain cases if the deal fails, according to deal coverage.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 total orders rose 28% from a year earlier to 993 million; Marketplace gross order value rose 36% to $33.9 billion; revenue was $4.616 billion, up 34%. DoorDash third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.06 billion, up 41%; fourth-quarter guidance is $900 million to $1.1 billion. DoorDash third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- DoorDash agreed to acquire Instacart for $65.00 per share, about $17 billion in equity value, at least 75% in cash; closing expected at the end of 2027 or in the first half of 2028. DoorDash 8-K and results release · as of
- DoorDash repurchased 6.8 million Class A shares for $1.0 billion through 28 October 2026, leaving about $4.0 billion of authorization. DoorDash third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- MoffettNathanson lowered its DoorDash price target to $239 from $277. MoffettNathanson, reported by fiscal.ai · as of
- Rosenblatt Securities kept a Buy rating and lowered its DoorDash price target to $225 from $270. Rosenblatt Securities, reported by Benzinga · as of
- Director Stanley Tang sold 23,125 shares at $178.35–$190.81 (average $188.71) under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 · as of
- The FTC sent study orders to DoorDash, Instacart, Uber, Lyft and others asking whether they use personal data to set prices and gig-worker pay. Yahoo Finance/TIKR, 3 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- DoorDash, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- DoorDash to acquire Instacart for $17 billion · cnbc.com ·
- Trump's FTC Turns to DoorDash's Pricing and Dasher Pay After the Instacart Deal · finance.yahoo.com ·
- DoorDash Releases Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · ir.doordash.com
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