MSTR · Strategy Inc

The thesis

Strategy Inc. is still adding bitcoin, but most of its spending now goes to supporting its STRC preferred stock. From 28 September to 4 October 2026 it repurchased $176.3 million of STRC and bought $28.7 million of bitcoin. Two events decide whether that funding model can restart larger purchases: the 28 October special meeting on daily preferred dividends, and the third-quarter report expected around 29 October. A weekly close below $123 is the price test.

Strategy's 5 October 2026 Form 8-K reported no bitcoin bought from 28 September to 30. It bought 334 bitcoin from 1 October to 4 at an average of $85,838.80, which took holdings to 848,000. USD Cash stood at $833.4 million on 4 October. The prior week's filing had it at $1.00 billion on 27 September.

The narrative is maturing: the late-September rally drew heavy attention, but since the 5 October filing the coverage has focused on how small the purchases are. On 5 October, Benzinga set Strategy's 334 bitcoin against the 2,000 bought by Strive. On 6 October, it reported that a 1,000-bitcoin purchase had made Metaplanet the second-largest corporate holder. The shares closed at $151.47 on 8 October 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Strategy Inc

The bull case on Strategy Inc (MSTR), in brief: Holdings keep rising with no sales. The bear case: Preferred support outspent bitcoin buying.

Bull case

• Holdings keep rising with no sales. The 5 October 2026 filing showed 848,000 bitcoin at an aggregate cost of $63.97 billion, an average of $75,440.70 each, and reported no bitcoin sold. Weekly filings dated 21 September, 28 September and 5 October each reported purchases.
• Third-quarter results carry a large mark-to-market gain. In the same 8-K, Strategy estimated a third-quarter gain on digital assets of $20.91 billion, a deferred tax expense of $1.88 billion and a digital-asset carrying value of $70.82 billion.
• Analysts raised targets after the rally. On 2 October 2026, Citigroup raised its target to $240 from $136 and lifted its 12-month bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000. B. Riley raised its target to $195 from $175 on 22 September. TD Cowen wrote on 6 October that well-run bitcoin treasury companies, Strategy among them, could outperform bitcoin by about 50%, per Benzinga.
• The preferred reform has firm dates. Strategy's 30 September 2026 Form 8-K kept STRC's annual dividend rate at 12.00%. It set the special meeting on daily dividend record dates for 28 October, and made the 15 November STRC payment depend on the amendment taking effect by 1 November.

Bear case

• Preferred support outspent bitcoin buying. From 28 September to 4 October 2026, Strategy bought back 1,773,802 STRC shares in two tranches: 1,033,168 for $102.6 million and 740,634 for $73.7 million. Bitcoin purchases in the same span came to $28.7 million, per the 5 October 8-K.
• Cash reserves are shrinking. On 4 October, the USD Reserve stood at $4.88 billion and USD Cash at $833.4 million. Remaining STRC repurchase authorization fell to $547.2 million from $723.5 million.
• Common-stock funding has dried up. Common sales from 1 October to 4 raised $15.7 million, and only part of the bitcoin bought was funded by them; $13.0 million came from USD Cash. On 5 October, Benzinga reported Peter Schiff's view that Strategy can no longer fund major bitcoin purchases.
• Rates are pressing on bitcoin. Benzinga reported that cryptocurrencies fell on 7 October 2026 after hawkish Federal Reserve minutes sent Treasury yields to new highs. On 6 October, Binance Research warned that bitcoin's rebound to $84,800 may be fragile.
• Fixed claims rank ahead of the common. A prospectus filed 24 August 2026 put debt at $6.754 billion and preferred notional at $14.966 billion as of 23 August.

Price setup

On 8 October 2026, MSTR closed at $151.47 in adjusted daily closes. That is 54.2% below its 52-week high of $330.80, and 64.5% above its level three months earlier. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 47.8, a neutral reading after the late-September surge. On 24 September, Benzinga reported a 29% five-day gain in the shares, with leveraged funds tracking them up about 60%.

The shares have lagged bitcoin since the start of October. On 2 October, Benzinga reported that the stock fell even as bitcoin broke above $87,000. On 5 October, Benzinga noted that MSTR's volatility is more than double bitcoin's. The $123 level marks the start of the September recovery. A weekly close below it would erase that move.

Crowding evidence is mixed. Leveraged products and heavy retail coverage amplify moves in both directions.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 October 2026 (est.): weekly Form 8-K. Shows whether STRC repurchases still outweigh bitcoin purchases and whether common-stock sales pick up.
• 15 October 2026: STRC record date for the $0.50 dividend payable 31 October. This is the last semi-monthly record date before the daily-dividend amendment can take effect.
• 28 October 2026: special meeting on daily dividend record dates for STRC, STRD, STRF and STRK. Management has said approval should help STRC trade nearer its $100 stated amount.
• ~29 October 2026 (est.): third-quarter 2026 results, per Earnings Whispers' estimated date. The report brings the estimated $20.91 billion digital-asset gain into earnings and updates the reserve, debt and preferred figures.
• 1 November 2026: deadline for the amended preferred certificate to take effect. If it is missed, November STRC dividends stay on the existing schedule.

What would change the view

Any of these would break the accumulation case: a weekly filing showing common-stock sales while bitcoin holdings stay flat or fall, any bitcoin sale used to fund dividends or preferred repurchases, or USD Cash continuing to fall to pay for STRC buybacks. Shareholder rejection of the amendment on 28 October, or STRC staying below $100 after the amendment takes effect, would show the preferred reform failing. Bitcoin falling below Strategy's average cost of $75,440.70 would put the treasury below its cost.

The reading would improve if STRC trades at its $100 stated amount, repurchases stop, and weekly filings show common-stock proceeds going back into bitcoin in purchases larger than the 1,665 bitcoin reported on 28 September. On price, a weekly close below $123 would undo the September recovery.

What it trades with

MSTR trades as a leveraged proxy for bitcoin, with volatility more than double the coin's, per Benzinga on 5 October 2026. US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve rate expectations have driven both since late September. The STRC price is a second driver, because repurchases below $100 draw on cash that could otherwise buy bitcoin. Peers with similar treasury models include Strive and Metaplanet. Leveraged single-stock funds on MSTR add to its daily swings.