Watching
ASST · Strive, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $21, well under the late-September to early-October closing range of $29.35 to $30.26. Separately, two consecutive weekly filings in which assumed fully diluted shares grow faster than bitcoin holdings would break the financing case.
Last pick Medium conviction, to : −7.7% against the S&P 500's +1.9%. Trailed the S&P 500 · conviction cut below medium.
Catalyst (in 1 day)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Strive, Inc. is still adding bitcoin faster than it adds common shares, but the shares have stopped rewarding it. Bitcoin per share keeps rising in the weekly filings while the stock falls with bitcoin and on dilution worries. The weekly Form 8-K expected around 13 October 2026 shows whether the per-share gain continues as bitcoin trades under the treasury's average cost.
The company side of the case is intact. Strive's 5 October 2026 Form 8-K shows 2,000 bitcoin bought from 28 September to 2 October at about $84,422 each, taking holdings from 27,462 to 29,462. Assumed fully diluted shares rose from 100,776,795 to 103,714,772 over the same week, a smaller proportional increase. 5 October filing The Block called it Strive's largest purchase since June.
The price side has turned. Strive fell 5.0% on 7 October, Quiver Quant reported, as bitcoin dropped to $83,280.52 that morning (The Crypto Times) and investors weighed the new Class A and preferred issuance. The shares closed at $28.23 on 8 October in adjusted daily closes. That sits below the late-September to early-October closing range of $29.35 to $30.26 and 29.1% under the 52-week high of $39.80.
The narrative is maturing: the 2,000-bitcoin purchase disclosed on 5 October 2026 drew wide coverage, yet the shares lost ground in the three sessions that followed. A weak bitcoin price now sets the direction more than the pace of purchases does.
Bullish and bearish views on Strive, Inc.
The bull case on Strive, Inc. (ASST), in brief: Bitcoin per share rose a third week. The bear case: The treasury sits below average cost.
Bull case
- Bitcoin per share rose a third week. Holdings grew by 1,355 bitcoin in the week to 18 September, 1,107 in the week to 25 September and 2,000 in the week to 2 October, each time faster than assumed fully diluted shares. The 5 October filing puts bitcoin per diluted share at 27,801 satoshis (a satoshi is one hundred-millionth of a bitcoin).
- Year-to-date bitcoin yield is 63.2%. Strive reported a year-to-date bitcoin yield, its measure of growth in bitcoin per share, of 63.2% as of 2 October, per Yahoo Finance coverage of the 5 October filing.
- Preferred issuance buys bitcoin without adding common shares.
- Third-quarter buying came cheaply. Strive bought 8,137 bitcoin in the third quarter of 2026 at an average of $78,885 each, Benzinga reported on 5 October. That pulled down the treasury's overall average cost.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. TD Cowen raised its target to $44 from $32 (The Block, 21 September), and B. Riley Securities raised its target to $33 from $26 (Benzinga, 22 September). TD Cowen told Benzinga on 6 October that well-run treasury companies including Strive could outperform bitcoin.
Bear case
- The treasury sits below average cost. Strive held 28,000 bitcoin at 30 September at an average cost of $90,170, per the 5 October filing as reported by Unchained. Bitcoin traded at $83,280.52 on 7 October, according to The Crypto Times.
- Warrant exercises are adding common shares. Class A common rose by 3,255,119 to 91,708,804 in the week to 2 October, while shares underlying traditional warrants fell to 23,249,706 from 25.35 million, per the 5 October filing. Quiver Quant tied the 7 October decline to this issuance.
- Insiders have been selling. Quiver Quant's 7 October report cites Form 4 sales by several executives and directors, including 58,789 shares sold by Chief Executive Matthew Cole for about $1.84 million.
- Funding carries a 13.00% coupon. The board held the SATA dividend rate at 13.00% a year for October, per a 14 September Form 8-K. That fixed cost does not fall when bitcoin does.
- Rates are pressuring bitcoin. A global bond selloff pushed the US 30-year Treasury yield to 5.715% on 7 October, Yahoo Finance reported, as bitcoin fell below $84,000 and crypto stocks including Strategy, Coinbase and Robinhood declined.
Price setup
The shares closed at $28.23 on 8 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That is 29.1% below the 52-week high of $39.80 and under the late-September low close of $29.35. The shares remain up 138.6% over three months.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge running from 0 to 100, stood at 36.7 on 8 October. That reading shows fading momentum without reaching the oversold zone below 30.
Crowding is visible. A twice-leveraged fund on the shares, the T-REX 2X Long ASST Daily Target ETF, has traded on Cboe since 18 September, which can amplify moves in both directions. Insider sales and weekly Class A issuance from warrant exercises add supply into rallies. S3 Partners listed crypto-related stocks with heavy short interest as squeeze candidates on 28 September, per Benzinga.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- ~13 October 2026, est.: Weekly bitcoin holdings and share-count Form 8-K for 5 October to 9, likely a day late after the 12 October federal holiday. It shows whether bitcoin holdings again grow faster than assumed fully diluted shares with bitcoin under $90,170.
- ~13 October 2026, est.: Board decision on the SATA dividend rate for November. Holding 13.00% suggests preferred demand is steady; a higher rate would mean costlier funding.
- ~19 October 2026, est.: Following weekly Form 8-K. It shows whether warrant-driven Class A issuance keeps pace with purchases.
- ~10 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter 2026 results, just outside the 30-day window. The report gives the full-quarter cost of preferred dividends against the 8,137 bitcoin bought.
What would change the view
The case breaks if the per-share engine stalls. Two consecutive weekly filings in which assumed fully diluted shares grow by a larger proportion than bitcoin holdings would show issuance diluting holders. A SATA dividend rate set above 13.00% or a stall in weekly SATA issuance would show preferred funding getting harder.
On price, a weekly close below $21 would mark a break well under the late-September to early-October closing range of $29.35 to $30.26. Bitcoin holding under the treasury's $90,170 average cost through the third-quarter report would also weigh on the reading.
The read would improve if bitcoin recovers above the $86,500 to $87,000 area where it was rejected before the 7 October drop, per The Crypto Times, and the shares close back inside the $29.35 to $30.26 range.
What it trades with
The shares trade as a higher-volatility proxy for bitcoin, Quiver Quant noted on 7 October. They move with Strategy, whose shares fell about 6% that day, and with other crypto stocks such as Coinbase and Robinhood. Bond yields matter through bitcoin: the 7 October selloff came alongside a 5.715% 30-year Treasury yield. Strive also holds Strategy's STRC preferred stock, so stress in Strategy's preferred market reaches Strive's balance sheet directly.
Notes
- Strive has two classes of common stock, Class A and Class B; on 2 October 2026 there were 91,708,804 Class A and 9,230,182 Class B shares.
- Strive's 'Assumed Fully Diluted Shares' measure excludes traditional warrants (23,249,706 underlying shares on 2 October 2026), so per-share comparisons need to treat warrants consistently.
- SATA is a variable-rate perpetual preferred that ranks ahead of the common stock; the board resets its dividend rate monthly, and it was 13.00% annually for October 2026.
- Strive reports bitcoin purchases and share counts in a weekly Form 8-K, usually filed on Mondays.
- A twice-leveraged fund on the shares, the T-REX 2X Long ASST Daily Target ETF (ASSX), has traded on Cboe since 18 September 2026.
- Strive holds Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock in its treasury, so stress in Strategy's preferred market touches Strive's balance sheet directly.
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