ONON · On Holding AG

The thesis

On Holding's 22 September 2026 investor day changed how the market reads the stock. The company set a 2029 sales goal of at least CHF 5.6 billion (Swiss francs) and announced its first buyback, $1 billion. That lifted a stock that had been trading near its 52-week low, and four brokers raised their price targets within nine days. The Q3 report, expected around 10 November 2026, will show whether growth holds near the company's guide of about 17% in constant currency (growth with exchange-rate effects stripped out). After the run, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stood at 89.1 on 8 October 2026, which leaves the shares little room for a miss.

The business is growing fast and making money. In its 11 August 2026 release, On reported Q2 2026 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, up 21.6% in constant currency. Gross margin was 65.4% and net income was CHF 105.0 million. The narrative is accelerating. The investor day, the buyback and the target raises between 23 September 2026 and 1 October 2026 brought new attention to a name that Trading News reported had fallen to a 52-week low of $26.36.

The weak spot is the Americas. Q2 sales there grew 4.5% as reported and 13.0% in constant currency. In Asia-Pacific they grew 54.7% in constant currency.

Bullish and bearish views on On Holding AG

The bull case on On Holding AG (ONON), in brief: Long-range targets include wider margins. The bear case: The shares are overbought after a fast rally.

Bull case

• Long-range targets include wider margins. At the 22 September 2026 investor day, On targeted at least CHF 5.6 billion of 2029 net sales, constant-currency growth in the high teens each year from 2026, gross margin of at least 65%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of at least 22%. The Q2 2026 EBITDA margin was 19.8%.
• The buyback is backed by net cash. The $1 billion authorization runs to 31 December 2029. Trading News put it at 9.9% of the $10.1 billion market value at the 22 September 2026 close. It also put cash at CHF 1.21 billion, with no financial debt.
• Guidance came in above consensus. On 22 September 2026, Benzinga reported Q3 sales guidance of $1.176 billion against a $1.150 billion estimate. It reported FY2026 sales guidance of $4.390–4.503 billion against $4.320 billion. In francs, the company's own FY2026 range is CHF 3.47–3.56 billion.
• Direct sales and Asia are carrying growth. Q2 2026 direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rose 34.3% in constant currency, reaching 45.7% of net sales (company release, 11 August 2026).
• Brokers raised targets after the investor day. Needham raised its target to $40 (23 September 2026). Barclays raised to $44 (24 September 2026) and JPMorgan to $44 (1 October 2026). All three kept positive ratings.
• The valuation is modest for the growth rate. At the $30.52 close on 22 September 2026, Trading News calculated enterprise value at 9.9 times 2026 EBITDA.

Bear case

• The shares are overbought after a fast rally. The 14-day RSI was 89.1 at the $34.04 close on 8 October 2026. The close before the investor day was $27.32 (Trading News), and readings this high often come before pullbacks.
• Growth is slowing into Q3. The Q3 guide of about 17% constant-currency growth is below the 21.6% posted in Q2. It is also below the full-year guide of growth in the low 20s.
• Americas and wholesale are soft. In Q2, Americas sales rose 4.5% as reported and wholesale rose 4.8%. Trading News records a $38.63 close before the 11 August 2026 report and a $31.29 close on the day.
• The strong franc cuts reported growth. Q2 net sales grew 13.5% as reported against 21.6% in constant currency. On also said it is absorbing higher US import tariffs.
• Not every analyst is positive. On 24 September 2026, BMO Capital kept a Market Perform rating with a $33 target, below the 8 October 2026 close.
• The sector backdrop is weak. Benzinga reported Nike at 13-year lows on 30 September 2026, and 30-year Treasury yields above 5.5% on 25 September 2026.

Price setup

On adjusted daily closes, the shares ended at $34.04 on 8 October 2026. That is 32.8% below the 52-week high of $50.63 and 10.2% lower than three months earlier. The rally started at the $27.32 close before the investor day. The shares then closed at $30.52 on 22 September 2026 and have kept rising since.

Below the price, the levels are $30.52, the investor-day close, and $28.36, which Trading News flags as the level that would close the investor-day price gap. The 52-week low of $26.36 sits under both. Above the price, $38.63 was the close before the August report. The $40–44 targets from Needham, Barclays and JPMorgan sit beyond it.

Signs of crowding are clear. The RSI is far above the usual overbought threshold of 70, and the shares have run hard in under three weeks. The buyback adds a steady buyer once repurchases begin. As a foreign private issuer, On does not file the SEC Form 4 insider reports that US companies file.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 9 October to 8 November 2026: No company event is scheduled in this window. Without new information, the price will mostly follow the peer group and interest rates.
• ~10 November 2026, est.: Q3 2026 report. Earnings calendars list either 10 November 2026 or 11 November 2026. The report shows whether constant-currency growth meets the guide of about 17%, whether gross margin stays at 65% or above, how much was repurchased, and how much of the up-to-$65 million tariff refund Trading News reported for Q3 has arrived.

What would change the view

Several results in the Q3 report would break the case:

• constant-currency growth below the guide of about 17%;
• gross margin below the 65% floor;
• a further slowdown in Americas or wholesale sales;
• any cut to the CHF 3.47–3.56 billion FY2026 sales range.

Little or no repurchase activity in the quarter after the authorization would also weaken it, because the buyback is part of the case. On price, a daily close below $30.52 would undo the investor-day gain and send the shares back toward the $28.36 gap level.

What it trades with

On is in the consumer-discretionary rotation group, with VRA, SG, GME, FOSL, JILL, LUXE, SIG and ASO. The group's weekly status slipped from accelerating on 13 September 2026 to maturing from 20 September 2026 through 9 October 2026. A cooling group raises the bar for a single-name case. On's recent move rests on its own news, the investor day and the buyback, so the case can hold while the group cools. It weakens if the group's weakness spreads into athletic footwear.

In practice, the shares track athletic-footwear peers such as Nike more closely than that group. Benzinga reported Nike at 13-year lows on 30 September 2026. As a growth stock, On is also sensitive to long-term interest rates, and 30-year yields topped 5.5% on 25 September 2026. Because On reports in francs, moves in the franc against the dollar change its dollar-converted results.