XE · X-Energy

The thesis

X-Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The licensing progress is real, but no event inside that window turns it into cash flow, losses are widening, and the shares have kept falling since the insider lock-up ended. Dow's preliminary investment decision on the Long Mott plant, which management expects in 2027, settles the commercial case. Until then, quarterly cash burn and the company's 2027 milestones carry the shares.

The progress is concrete. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) finished its safety review of the Xe-100 reactor for Long Mott on 30 October 2026. On 9 November 2026 it approved the construction permit for four Xe-100 units at Dow's Seadrift, Texas site. The company calls it the first permit for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in nearly 60 years.

The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 did not change the picture. Revenue and grant income beat estimates, but the adjusted loss per share missed, and the company repeated that its first project comes online in the early 2030s. The shares closed at $11.26 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $13.34 and down 46.3% over three months, based on adjusted daily closes.

The price reflects a long wait at a deep discount to the listing: the $11.26 close on 12 November 2026 is less than half the $23.00 initial public offering (IPO) price set on 23 April 2026. The rating is Low because the evidence that would show the shares leading, a firm customer investment decision or a funded construction start, has no confirmed date inside three months.

Bullish and bearish views on X-Energy, Inc.

The bull case on X-Energy, Inc. (XE), in brief: licensing is running ahead of schedule. The bear case: losses are growing faster than revenue.

Bull case

• Licensing is running ahead of schedule. The NRC approved the Long Mott construction permit on 9 November 2026, which the companies say was more than a month early. Management said on the 12 November 2026 call that the NRC's informal guidance points to 6–12 month reviews for later applications, against 17 months for Dow.
• Revenue is growing fast. Third-quarter revenue and grant income was $66.3 million, up 118% from $30.4 million a year earlier, according to the 12 November 2026 release. It beat the $59.9 million analyst estimate, and nine-month revenue reached $164.4 million, up 126%.
• The balance sheet is large and debt-free. At 30 September 2026 the company held $1,044.1 million in cash, $514.3 million in short-term investments and $247.1 million in long-term investments, with no debt, per the third-quarter 10-Q.
• Fuel supply is advancing with the reactor. Vertical construction of the TX-1 TRISO-X fuel plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee finished on schedule, according to the 12 November 2026 release. The plant is sized at about 700,000 fuel pebbles a year.
• Large customers are lined up. The company reported a pipeline of 144 reactors, about 11.5 gigawatts, on 12 November 2026, assuming customers exercise their contingent rights in full. Fluor was named engineering contractor for the four-unit Cascade project with Energy Northwest and Amazon in Washington on 5 November 2026.

Bear case

• Losses are growing faster than revenue. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) loss was $75.7 million, against $36.7 million a year earlier, per the 12 November 2026 release. Adjusted loss per share was $0.14, against a $0.10 estimate.
• Cash burn is steady. Operating cash flow was negative $51.2 million in the third quarter and negative $215.8 million over the nine months to 30 September 2026, per the 10-Q.
• Revenue rests on grants and engineering work. The 12 November 2026 release attributes the growth mainly to work under the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. No Xe-100 sells power before the early 2030s, management said on the same day.
• No firm construction commitment yet. On the 12 November 2026 call, management said Dow will consider a preliminary investment decision in 2027 through a gated process covering engineering, cost targets and operating assumptions. Full construction follows only a final decision.
• A large share count has become sellable. IPO calendar listings show the 180-day insider lock-up ending on 21 October 2026. The 30 September 2026 count was 297.5 million Class A and 108.7 million Class B shares, per the 10-Q, and director and 10% owner Kamal Ghaffarian reported a disposition-or-acquisition of 108,174 shares on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026).

Price setup

The shares closed at $11.26 on 12 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. The 50-day moving average stood at $13.34 on the same date, and the 3-month change was −46.3%, both from adjusted daily closes. The $23.00 IPO price of 23 April 2026 is the level every buyer since the listing is measured against.

The case turns on the 50-day average. A sustained recovery above it would show buying returning after the lock-up selling. Staying under it keeps the shares in the decline that neither the 9 November 2026 permit nor the 12 November 2026 revenue beat has broken.

Catalysts ahead

• 30 November 2026: X-Energy presents at the UBS investor conference. The first public update after the third-quarter report could carry the promised 2027 milestones and timing for Dow's investment decision.
• 10 December 2026: X-Energy presents at the Truist and Stifel investor conferences. Further chances to set dated 2027 targets for Long Mott, Cascade and the TX-1 fuel plant, which would firm up or weaken the timeline.
• ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. They show whether cash burn and the widening adjusted EBITDA loss are stabilising against $1.8 billion of liquidity.
• ~2027 (est.): Dow preliminary investment decision on Long Mott. The first customer commitment to build an Xe-100 plant, and the event that settles the commercial case.

What would change the view

A daily close above $13.50, over the 50-day moving average as of 12 November 2026, which would show the post-IPO slide reversing. Dow announcing a preliminary investment decision to build Long Mott would also show the shares leading.

What it trades with

The shares trade with the listed small-modular-reactor developers, which tend to move together on nuclear-power and AI-datacenter electricity sentiment more than on their own results. Amazon is a partner in two of the announced deployments, Cascade in Washington and the AEP evaluation in Indiana, so news on Amazon's datacenter power buying is a shared driver. Fluor, named Cascade contractor on 5 November 2026, and Dow, the Long Mott customer, depend on the same project schedule.