Journal ·
Wednesday, 6 May 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 17.39 (calm, vol firming slightly). Breadth 63.9% (624/977) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 733.77 — +10.6% vs its 200-EMA (663.32).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Flip from neutral |
| VIX | 17.39 | Calm — vol firming slightly |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 63.9% (624/977) | Healthy participation |
| SPY close | 733.77 | +10.6% vs 200-EMA (663.32) |
Regime assessment
Regime flipped to risk-on from the prior neutral read, its first risk-on print. The model reads risk-on: the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average, breadth is healthy and volatility is contained.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 6 May 2026: risk-on. Changed from neutral.