Journal ·
Thursday, 4 June 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 15.40 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 61.8% (604/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 756.97 — +11.6% vs its 200-EMA (678.23).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | 4th consecutive print (since 21 May 2026) |
| VIX | 15.40 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 61.8% (604/978) | Healthy participation |
| SPY close | 756.97 | +11.6% vs 200-EMA (678.23) |
Regime assessment
Regime held at risk-on for a fourth consecutive print, unchanged from the prior risk-on read and in place since 21 May 2026. The model reads risk-on: the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average, breadth is healthy and volatility is contained.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 4 June 2026: risk-on. Unchanged from risk-on.