Journal ·
Thursday, 11 June 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on is the model's authoritative close, a flip from the neutral read published yesterday (10 June 2026). Breadth did the work: 57.1% (558/978) of the tape now holds above its 50-day EMA, up from under the 50% line in the prior session. Vol eased alongside it: VIX at 19.44 is still elevated but lower than where it sat under the neutral tape, so this flip rode widening participation with only a partial draining of fear. SPY closed 737.67, +8.2% over its 200-EMA (681.45), and the front end eased a touch with the 2Y down 4bps to 4.13% while the 10Y held 4.55% and the curve steepened to 0.42%.
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Flip from prior neutral read |
| VIX | 19.44 | Elevated, eased with the flip |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 57.1% (558/978) | Healthy but unconfirmed, up from a mixed prior session |
| SPY close | 737.67 | +8.2% vs 200-EMA (681.45) |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.55% | week over week flat |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.13% | week over week −4bps, front end eased |
| 10Y–2Y spread | 0.42% | week over week +4bps, steeper |
| 10Y breakeven | 2.34% | week over week −2bps |
| Real 10Y rate | 2.21% | week over week +2bps, marginally more restrictive |
| HY credit spread | 2.80% | week over week +4bps, a touch wider |
| Fed Funds | 3.63% | as of 1 May 2026 |
| Initial claims | 229K | week over week +4K |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | as of 1 May 2026 |
| Nonfarm payrolls | 159.0M | as of 1 May 2026 |
| Housing starts | 1,465K | as of 1 April 2026 |
Regime assessment
The flip earns more exposure, but the way it flipped sets the terms. Participation widened, which is the green light this engine had been waiting on, yet vol still sitting elevated says the move is being led, not melted up a leadership tape, not a buy-everything one. So the call is to press the cleanest accelerating narratives with cluster confirmation and let broadening breadth carry size, while keeping trailing risk tight as long as vol stays elevated, because a flip built on breadth without a full vol unwind can be handed back fast. Credit isn't arguing the other side; HY is barely wider and nowhere near stress. The standing ceiling is the real rate restrictive enough to cap what the tape will pay for the highest-multiple stories even with the regime now green.
What would change the call
Flip back toward neutral or risk-off if breadth loses the high-50s and slides under the 50% line, or if VIX re-firms off 19.44 instead of continuing to ease breadth did most of the work, so participation is the fragile part. HY breaking meaningfully wider off 2.80% would pull the credit all-clear. The nearer pressure stays rates: another leg in the real 10Y above 2.21%, or the front end re-firming past this week's −4bps on the 2Y, hits the high-multiple narrative names first.
What to watch
- Next CPI against a 2.34% breakeven a hot read pushes the real rate the wrong way for momentum multiples right as the regime turns green.
- Next payrolls and claims, claims now +4K to 229K whether the 159.0M payroll trend holds or the labor margin frays.
- Whether VIX keeps easing from 19.44 or the vol bid re-fires the fastest path to handing the breadth-led flip back.
- Fed path against a 3.63% funds rate, with the curve steepening to 0.42% and the 2Y easing on the week.
Status
Risk-on as of 11 June 2026; engine flip from the prior published read (neutral, 10 June 2026). Research only no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L.