Journal ·
Thursday, 10 September 2026
Regime Risk-offMarket regime
The real 10Y rate rose 3bps week over week through 9 September 2026, increasing the inflation-adjusted rate against which equity valuations are assessed. This is the clearest valuation headwind in the rate data; whether equities respond remains unresolved. FRED’s weekly changes do not establish what moved during today’s equity session.
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-off | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 17.84 | Calm |
| Breadth above 50-day EMA | 36.5% (357/977) | Deteriorating |
| SPY close | 757.87 | +5.5% versus 200-EMA of 718.37 |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.83% | week over week +5bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.43% | week over week +6bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| 10Y–2Y spread | 0.40% | week over week -1bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.37% | week over week +2bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| Real 10Y rate | 2.46% | week over week +3bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| HY credit spread | 2.71% | week over week +3bps; as of 9 September 2026 |
| Fed Funds | 3.63% | As of 1 August 2026 |
| Initial jobless claims | 206K | week over week -1K; as of 5 September 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | As of 1 August 2026 |
| Nonfarm payrolls | 159.1M | As of 1 August 2026 |
| Housing starts | 1,239K | As of 1 July 2026 |
Regime assessment
The risk-off read reflects SPY’s position above its long-term average lacking broad participation confirmation in the model’s deteriorating breadth reading. Calm VIX also leaves the weekly credit widening without volatility corroboration. The snapshot and weekly deltas are too small a sample to establish a persistent trend.
What would change the call
- Limited participation confirmation: repeated breadth readings above 36.5%, with SPY remaining above its contemporaneous 200-EMA, would weaken this assessment.
- Uncorroborated stress: further HY spread widening beyond 2.71%, accompanied by VIX leaving its calm classification and SPY falling below its contemporaneous 200-EMA, would invalidate that characterization.
What to watch
Upcoming real-rate observations provide a test of whether the valuation headwind strengthens or reverses. Breadth, credit and volatility updates supply the confirmation tests above. Labour and housing releases would refresh the older observations; release dates are not yet scheduled. No outcome is forecast.
Status
Risk-off — first risk-off read in the journal, a flip from neutral.