Journal ·
Monday, 21 September 2026
Regime Risk-offMarket regime
Risk-off — the model's close-of-day read. VIX 14.87 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 37.7% (369/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (deteriorating — most names below their 50-day EMA). SPY closed 773.52 — +7.4% vs its 200-EMA (720.2).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-off | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 14.87 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 37.7% (369/978) | Deteriorating — most names below their 50-day ema |
| SPY close | 773.52 | +7.4% vs 200-EMA (720.2) |
Regime assessment
The model reads risk-off: at least one of trend, breadth or volatility has turned against risk-taking.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 21 September 2026: risk-off.